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At least 217 records · Page 12Linked to original sources
USGS2020

The relationship between biodiversity and wetland cover varies across regions of the conterminous United States

Identifying the factors that determine the spatial distribution of biodiversity is a major focus of ecological research. These factors vary with scale from interspecific interactions to global climatic cycles. Wetlands are important biodiversity hotspots and contributors of ecosystem services, but the association between proportional wetland cover and species richness has shown mixed results. It is not well known as to what extent there is a relationship between proportional wetland cover and species richness, especially at the sub-continental scale. We used the National Wetlands Inventory to model wetland cover for the conterminous United States and the National Land Cover Database to estimate wetland change between 2001 and 2011. We used a Bayesian spatial Poisson model to estimate a spatially varying coefficient surface describing the effect of proportional wetland cover on the distribution of amphibians, birds, mammals, and reptiles and the cumulative distribution of terrestrial endemic species. Species richness and wetland cover were significantly correlated, and this relationship varied both spatially and by taxonomic group. Rather than a continental-scale association, however, we found that this relationship changed more closely among ecoregions. The species richness of each of the five groups was positively associated with wetland cover in some or all of the Great Plains; additionally, a positive association was found for mammals in the Southeastern Plains and Piedmont of the eastern U.S. Model results indicated negative association especially in the Cold Deserts and Northern Lakes & Forests of Minnesota and Wisconsin, though these varied greatly between groups. Our results highlight the need for wetland conservation initiatives that focus efforts at the level II and III ecoregional scale rather than along political boundaries.

PLoS ONE↗
USGS2008

Florida Integrated Science Center (FISC) Coral Reef Research

Coral reefs provide important ecosystem services such as shoreline protection and the support of lucrative industries including fisheries and tourism. Such ecosystem services are being compromised as reefs decline due to coral disease, climate change, overfishing, and pollution. There is a need for focused, integrated science to understand the complex ecological interactions and effects of these many stressors and to provide information that will effectively guide policies and best management practices to preserve and restore these important resources. The U.S. Geological Survey Florida Integrated Science Center (USGS-FISC) is conducting a coordinated Coral Reef Research Project beginning in 2009. Specific research topics are aimed at addressing priorities identified in the 'Strategic Science for Coral Ecosystems 2007-2011' document (U.S. Geological Survey, 2007). Planned research will include a blend of historical, monitoring, and process studies aimed at improving our understanding of the development, current status and function, and likely future changes in coral ecosystems. Topics such as habitat characterization and distribution, coral disease, and trends in biogenic calcification are major themes of understanding reef structure, ecological integrity, and responses to global change.

Fact Sheet↗
USGS1963

Reconnaissance geology and hydrology on the Nett Lake Indian Reservation, Minnesota

The Nett Lake Indian Reservation is in northern Minnesota, about 210 miles north of Minneapolis and St. Paul. The village of Nett Lake (population about 300) is the only community on the reservation. This report is the result of an investigation made to provide a central water source for the village, at the request of the Public Health Service of the U.S. Department of Health, Education, and Welfare. The climate of the area is continental, characterized by cool, subhumid summers and long, severe winters. The average annual precipitation is 24.2 inches. Altitudes in the area range from about 1,190 feet above mean sea level in the Little Fork River channel on the west border of the reservation to about 1,550 feet on top of the Vermilion end moraine, just south of Nett Lake. During the latter part of the Pleistocene Epoch most of the area was inundated by the waters of glacial Lake Agassiz. The area is now drained by the Little Fork River which flows north into the Rainy River, thence into Lake of the Woods, and eventually into Hudson Bay. The geologic units in the Nett Lake area consist of unconsolidated deposits of Recent and Pleistocene age and crystalline rocks of Precambrian age. Most ground water in the Nett Lake area occurs in three different zones: 1) surficial sand and gravel deposits, 2) lake sand underlying compact lake clay, and 3) bedrock fractures. The lake sand underlying the compact clay is the best source of ground water for the village of Nett Lake. It occurs in a small channel immediately west of the village, and it ranges in depth from about 11 to 30 feet below land surface and in thickness from 0 to about 3 feet. The water level is near the surface. A test well yielded 30 gpm (gallons per minute). Two 15 gpm wells would not exceed the long-term yield of the aquifer and would be adequate for the needs of the village.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2026

Erosion potential and flood vulnerability of streams and stream crossings at Acadia National Park, Maine

Acadia National Park has had increases in the frequency and magnitude of precipitation in recent years, leading to increased flood flows, stream erosion, and costly infrastructure damage. To improve infrastructure management in a changing climate, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the National Park Service, has developed multiple datasets that can help natural resource managers identify stream reaches and stream crossings that have the highest potential for erosion and flood damage within Acadia National Park. To develop these datasets, we first created a lidar-derived hydrography based on a 1-meter digital elevation model and then estimated peak flows at stream crossings and along the stream network using regional regression equations for Maine. We assessed the erosion potential of stream reaches by computing channel morphologic and hydrologic metrics associated with erosive power, such as stream steepness, topographic openness, and percent storage in the contributing watershed. Stream crossing flood vulnerability was assessed by comparing estimated peak flows to stream crossing conveyance capacities. Our results indicate that stream reaches in the headwaters of the Acadia National Park highlands such as Sargent, Penobscot, and Cadillac Mountain, have the highest erosion potential and generally coincide with reaches that have had erosion and infrastructure damage in the past. Stream crossings with the highest flood vulnerability are distributed throughout Mount Desert Island and Acadia National Park, especially south of Jordan Pond, north of Sargent Mountain, and surrounding Eagle Lake. Over a quarter of the total stream crossings have insufficient information to compute flood vulnerability and are often on the parts of the stream with the highest potential for erosion. The datasets allow users to identify stream reaches with the highest erosion potential, stream crossings that are most vulnerable to flood damage, and to highlight areas where supplemental field assessments could most effectively be completed.

Maine↗
USGS2018

Effects of climate change on ecological disturbance in the Northern Rockies Region [Chapter 8]

This chapter describes the ecology of important disturbance regimes in the Forest Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture (USFS) Northern Region and the Greater Yellowstone Area, hereafter called the Northern Rockies region, and potential shifts in these regimes as a consequence of observed and projected climate change. The term disturbance regime describes the general temporal and spatial characteristics of a disturbance agent - insect, disease, fire, weather, even human activity - and the effects of that agent on the landscape (table 8.1). More specifically, a disturbance regime is the cumulative effect of multiple disturbance events over space and time (Keane 2013). Disturbances disrupt an ecosystem, community, or population structure and change elements of the biological environment, physical environment, or both (White and Pickett 1985). The resulting shifting mosaic of diverse ecological patterns and structures in turn affects future patterns of disturbance, in a reciprocal, linked relationship that shapes the fundamental character of landscapes and ecosystems. Disturbance creates and maintains biological diversity in the form of shifting, heterogeneous mosaics of diverse communities and habitats across a landscape (McKinney and Drake 1998), and biodiversity is generally highest when disturbance is neither too rare nor too frequent on the landscape (Grime 1973).

General Technical Report↗
USGS2011

Modeling regional coral reef responses to global warming and changes in ocean chemistry: Caribbean case study

Climatic change threatens the future of coral reefs in the Caribbean and the important ecosystem services they provide. We used a simulation model [C OMBO (“COral Mortality and Bleaching Output”)] to estimate future coral cover in the part of the eastern Caribbean impacted by a massive coral bleaching event in 2005. C OMBO calculates impacts of future climate change on coral reefs by combining impacts from long-term changes in average sea surface temperature (SST) and ocean acidification with impacts from episodic high temperature mortality (bleaching) events. We used mortality and heat dose data from the 2005 bleaching event to select historic temperature datasets, to use as a baseline for running C OMBO under different future climate scenarios and sets of assumptions. Results suggest a bleak future for coral reefs in the eastern Caribbean. For three different emissions scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC; B1, A1B, and A1FI), coral cover on most Caribbean reefs is projected to drop below 5% by the year 2035, if future mortality rates are equivalent to some of those observed in the 2005 event (50%). For a scenario where corals gain an additional 1–1.5°C of heat tolerance through a shift in the algae that live in the coral tissue, coral cover above 5% is prolonged until 2065. Additional impacts such as storms or anthropogenic damage could result in declines in coral cover even faster than those projected here. These results suggest the need to identify and preserve the locations that are likely to have a higher resiliency to bleaching to save as many remnant populations of corals as possible in the face of projected wide-spread coral loss.

Climatic Change↗
USGS2010

Modeling Climate Change and Sturgeon Populations in the Missouri River

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Columbia Environmental Research Center (CERC), in collaboration with researchers from the University of Missouri and Iowa State University, is conducting research to address effects of climate change on sturgeon populations (Scaphirhynchus spp.) in the Missouri River. The CERC is conducting laboratory, field, and modeling research to identify causative factors for the responses of fish populations to natural and human-induced environmental changes and using this information to understand sensitivity of sturgeon populations to potential climate change in the Missouri River drainage basin. Sturgeon response information is being used to parameterize models predicting future population trends. These models will provide a set of tools for natural resource managers to assess management strategies in the context of global climate change. This research complements and builds on the ongoing Comprehensive Sturgeon Research Program (CSRP) at the CERC. The CSRP is designed to provide information critical to restoration of the Missouri River ecosystem and the endangered pallid sturgeon (S. albus). Current research is being funded by USGS through the National Climate Change Wildlife Science Center (NCCWSC) and the Science Support Partnership (SSP) Program that is held by the USGS and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. The national mission of the NCCWSC is to improve the capacity of fish and wildlife agencies to respond to climate change and to address high-priority climate change effects on fish and wildlife. Within the national context, the NCCWSC research on the Missouri River focuses on temporal and spatial downscaling and associated uncertainty in modeling climate change effects on sturgeon species in the Missouri River. The SSP research focuses on improving survival and population estimates for pallid sturgeon population models.

Fact Sheet↗
USGS2014

Optimizing conservation strategies for Mexican freetailed bats: a population viability and ecosystem services approach

Conservation planning can be challenging due to the need to balance biological concerns about population viability with social concerns about the benefits biodiversity provide to society, often while operating under a limited budget. Methods and tools that help prioritize conservation actions are critical for the management of at-risk species. Here, we use a multi-attribute utility function to assess the optimal maternity roosts to conserve for maintaining the population viability and the ecosystem services of a single species, the Mexican free-tailed bat ( Tadarida brasiliensis mexicana ). Mexican free-tailed bats provide ecosystem services such as insect pest-suppression in agricultural areas and recreational viewing opportunities, and may be threatened by climate change and development of wind energy. We evaluated each roost based on five attributes: the maternity roost’s contribution to population viability, the pest suppression ecosystem services to the surrounding area provided by the bats residing in the roost, the ecotourism value of the roost, the risks posed to each roost structure, and the risks posed to the population of bats residing in each roost. We compared several scenarios that prioritized these attributes differently, hypothesizing that the set of roosts with the highest rankings would vary according to the conservation scenario. Our results indicate that placing higher values on different roost attributes (e.g. population importance over ecosystem service value) altered the roost rankings. We determined that the values placed on various conservation objectives are an important determinant of habitat planning.

Biodiversity and Conservation↗
USGS2024

Need and vision for global medium-resolution Landsat and Sentinel-2 data products

Global changes in climate and land use are threatening natural ecosystems, biodiversity, and the ecosystem services people rely on. This is why it is necessary to track and monitor spatiotemporal change at a level of detail that can inform science, management, and policy development. The current constellation of multiple Landsat and Sentinel-2 satellites collecting imagery at predominantly ≤ "> ≤ 30-m spatial resolution affords an opportunity for the generation of global medium- resolution products every few days. Our goal is to both identify the information needs and provide direction towards the generation of a suite of global, high-level, systematically-generated, medium-resolution products designed for both management and science. Our vision builds on the success of the NASA MODIS/VIIRS product suite, while recognizing the unique strengths of medium-resolution satellite data given their higher spatial resolution and longer time series. We propose a suite of 13 essential products that enable the characterization of the current state and changes in the biosphere, cryosphere, and hydrosphere, and would fill information needs identified by the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites for the Global Climate Observing System and the Global Terrestrial Observing System, by the National Research Council of the US National Academies in the decadal survey, and by others. These products are: land cover, land cover change, burned area, forest loss, vegetation indices, phenology, dynamic habitat indices, albedo, land surface temperature, snow cover, ice extent, surface water extent, and evapotranspiration. Furthermore, we provide a list of desirable products poised for addition to the essential products (e.g., crop type, emissivity, and ice sheet velocity). Lastly, we suggest aspirational products requiring further algorithm development (e.g., forest structure and crop yield). For the identified essential products, algorithms are in place, making it feasible to begin generating products systematically. These products should be accompanied by quality and accuracy assessments undertaken following consensus protocols. Five decades after the first Landsat satellite, and two decades after the MODIS products were first produced, it is time now for readily available, standardized, and consistent high-level products built upon medium-resolution imagery, thereby fulfilling the promise and the vision that inspired the Landsat program since its inception.

Remote Sensing of Environment↗
USGS2022

Action plan for restoration of coral reef coastal protection services: Case study example and workbook

This report was prepared by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA), Office of Research and Development, as part of the Air, Climate and Energy (ACE) research program, with support from Tetra Tech, Inc., and in collaboration with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the U.S. Geological Survey, and The Nature Conservancy. The ACE research program provides scientific information and tools to support USEPA’s commitment to clean air, clean water and sustainable natural resources, even as environmental conditions change. A key component of this is the development of sound science to support adaptation. Adaptation involves preparing for and adjusting to the effects of climate change and its interactions with other global and local stressors. Because these effects are diverse, interactive, and difficult to predict, adapting management of natural resources in this context can be very challenging. Coral reefs—which provide valued ecosystem services such as fisheries, coastal protection, and tourism—are threatened by the effects of increased sea surface temperatures, sea level rise, and intensifying storms. These large-scale stressors are interacting with local stressors such as pollution, overfishing, and recreational misuse to drive ongoing and accelerating declines in coral reef ecosystems. Thus, there is a rising urgency to design and implement climate change adaptation measures that will enable reef resilience in the face of these changes. This includes accounting for, and adjusting to, the combined effects of climate change and local stressors in coral reef protection and restoration efforts. The action plan, example case study, and workbook found in this report demonstrate a structured process for integrating climate-smart design considerations into restoration planning using A Manager’s Guide to Coral Reef Restoration Planning and Design. The focus is a hypothetical coral reef restoration project that has a goal of recovering nature-based coastal protection services using restoration interventions. The intent is to provide readers with a completed example of how to use the Guide workbook to inform a draft action plan, centering on the topic of coastal protection as a burgeoning area of interest in coral reef science and management communities. The information in this hypothetical case study is not intended for direct use; rather, it provides a starting point for more detailed planning that would occur in specific places. And while a full review of the current literature on reef restoration methods is outside the scope of this report, readers are encouraged to use the examples herein as well as in the Guide as a jumping-off point for exploring the rapidly growing body of information on methods, techniques, successes, failures, monitoring challenges and future directions of coral reef restoration in a changing world. The workbook, together with the action plan, can serve as a valuable record of the planning thought process as well as a living document for adaptive management, to be updated through time as improved information becomes available.

EPA Report↗
USGS2020

Research priorities for migratory birds under climate change—A qualitative value of information assessment

The mission of the U.S. Geological Survey National Climate Adaptation Science Center is to provide actionable, management-relevant research on climate change effects on ecosystems and wildlife to U.S. Department of the Interior bureaus. Providing this kind of useful scientific information requires understanding how natural-resource managers make decisions and identifying research priorities that support those decision-making processes. Migratory bird management and conservation of migratory bird habitat are central components of the U.S. Department of the Interior’s mission. In particular, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service has an intensive, complex decision-making process for identifying high-priority parcels of land that will contribute to migratory bird conservation through permanent acquisition or easement. Climate change introduces several uncertainties into this decision-making process, and additional climate change research should help to support more informed decision making regarding habitat acquisition. Not all climate change related uncertainties, however, will have a meaningful effect on acquisition decisions; therefore, understanding which uncertainties have the most potential to alter decision making is crucial. This document summarizes a multiyear effort to clarify the major sources of climate change uncertainty that affect migratory bird management and to articulate related research priorities. We worked with U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service staff to assess the primary ways in which climate change is likely to affect migratory birds and their habitats; to clarify uncertainties surrounding these effects; and to assess how uncertainties may affect habitat acquisition decisions. Using a modified structured decision-making approach, we assessed a set of hypotheses about how climate change will affect migratory birds and their habitats. Then, we used a qualitative value of information assessment to rank the most important topics for future research. The ranking process was built on an assessment of three primary characteristics: the magnitude of uncertainty, the topic’s relevance to habitat acquisition decision making, and the feasibility of reducing the uncertainty. Based on the results of this process, high-priority topics for future research include the following: The effects of rising temperatures on spatial distributions of migratory birds during the breeding and nonbreeding seasons; Climate-driven changes to avian community composition through homogenization and loss of specialists; The effects of decreased precipitation on abundance in the breeding season; and The effects of rising temperatures on abundance in the nonbreeding season. In addition to describing high-priority research needs, this document provides a summary of the methodology used to identify, assess, and rank uncertainties. This method was developed for a climate change related topic where a full quantitative value of information approach may not be feasible. The results and methodology described here may be useful for U.S. Geological Survey and other science-funding agencies interested in improving the applicability of their research to natural-resource management decision making.

Circular↗
USGS2023

Trends in tree cover change over three decades related to interannual climate variability and wildfire in California

The U.S. State of California has experienced frequent drought events, hotter temperatures and other disruptions to the climate system whose effects on ecosystems have been widely reported in recent decades. Studies primarily confined to specific vegetation communities or species, individual drought incidents, or analysis over a relatively short intervals, has limited our understanding of the broad-scale effects on tree cover and the spatiotemporal variability of effects across broader regions. We focused analysis on multi-annual land cover and land surface change to assess patterns and trends in tree cover loss in tree-dominated Californian ecoregions from 1986 to 2019. The top three years of total tree cover loss for the state were 2018 (1901 km 2 ), 2015 (1556 km 2 ), and 2008 (1549 km 2 ). Overall, annual tree cover loss had upward trends. Tree cover loss rapidly surged later in the study period and was apparently driven by climate stress and wildfires. Underlying geographic variability was apparent in both non-fire and fire-related tree cover loss that sharply increased during hotter multi-year droughts. The increasingly hotter and drier climate conditions were associated with significant increases in fire-induced mortality. Our findings indicate that a possible effect of future hotter and drier climate would lead to further tree cover loss, thereby endangering California's ecosystem goods and services. Geographic variability in tree cover trends indicates that ecoregion-specific mitigation and adaptation strategies would be useful to conserve the region's forest resources. Such strategies may benefit from consideration of historical disturbances, ecoregion's sensitivity to disturbance types, as well as potential ecoregion-specific climate-vegetation-fire feedbacks.

California↗
USGS2024

Potential 2050 distributions of World Terrestrial Ecosystems from projections of changes in World Climate Regions and Global Land Cover

The urgency to address ecosystem loss is paramount, as both land use change and climate change will continue to rapidly alter and degrade natural ecosystems and reduce the many services they provide. To support conservation actions that mitigate impacts from these dual threats, we have developed potential World Terrestrial Ecosystem (WTE) distributions for 2050 following IPCC best practice guidelines. This projection of ecosystem distributions builds on the previously released 2015 WTEs, a snapshot of the distribution and conservation status of 431 terrestrial ecosystem types defined as distinct combinations of 18 global climate regions, 4 global landform classes, and 8 global vegetation/land cover classes. Extending that work herein, we modeled the potential 2050 WTE distributions based on projections of five CMIP6 general circulation models (GCMs) and one global land cover change model, determined for three shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios. The climate region modeling included projections for 2050 for both mean annual temperature and mean annual aridity. Model agreement for changes to WTEs was generally high, particularly for temperature projections. Widespread changes in ecosystem classes due to shifts in climate settings and/or land cover between 2015 and 2050 were projected, with both the magnitude and specific geography of projected change largely governed by the SSP scenario. For the three SSP scenarios (sustainable development, regional rivalry, and fossil-fueled development), geographic changes in climate setting (temperature, aridity, or both) and/or changes in vegetation/land cover are projected for 29 %, 36 %, and 39 % of Earth’s terrestrial surface, respectively. These changes occur in areas where 31 %, 36 %, and 41 % of the global population lives. Projected changes in ecosystem distributions related to temperature change are approximately an order of magnitude greater than for aridity change. By offering insight into potential ecosystem changes, this new resource is intended to facilitate conservation planning and priority setting aimed at improved conservation of biodiversity and ecosystem services.

Global Ecology and Conservation↗
USGS2023

Assessment of factors that influence human water demand for Providence, Rhode Island

To determine the most relevant climatic and economic factors driving water demand for Providence, Rhode Island, and to further the understanding of human interactions with water availability, linear regression models were developed to estimate single-family and multifamily residential, commercial, and industrial water demand for the service area of Providence Water for 2014–21. Monthly water use delivery data were provided by Providence Water. An array of climatic and economic data, the drought index, and binary variables to represent seasonal water use and the onset of the coronavirus (COVID–19) were investigated as possible explanatory variables for the water demand models. The water demand model with the best fit with the least amount of error was the single-family residential water demand followed in descending order of accuracy by the commercial, multifamily residential, and industrial water demand. Seasonal variables were significant in all models, and the COVID–19 binary variable was significant in the commercial and industrial models. One or two economic variables were significant in all models and one climatic variable was significant in all models except the commercial model. Overall residential, commercial, and industrial water demand in the Providence, Rhode Island, service area has decreased during the study period most likely because of widescale drought conditions and policies designed to improve water efficiencies. The linear regression models developed for single-family and multifamily residential, commercial, and industrial water use explained 94, 85, 91, and 77 percent, respectively, of the variability in monthly water use. Multifamily residential water demand displayed a less distinct seasonal trend than that observed for single-family residential customers, likely because multifamily homes tend to use less water outdoors. The commercial water-demand model included no climatic variables, one economic variable, the COVID–19 pandemic variable, and the high and low water use seasonal variables—the latter two variables indicating the importance of seasonal fluctuations in water use. The COVID–19 pandemic and a concomitant State executive order had the immediate effect of severely reducing commercial water use. The industrial water-demand model did not perform as well as the other models because industrial water delivery data display a greater range of values, both seasonally and for the overall study period.

Rhode Island↗
USGS2020

Climate’s cascading effects on disease, predation, and hatching success in Anaxyrus canorus, the threatened Yosemite toad

The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service listed Anaxyrus canorus , the Yosemite toad, as federally threatened in 2014 based upon reported population declines and vulnerability to global-change factors. A. canorus lives only in California’s central Sierra Nevada at medium to sub-alpine elevations. Lands throughout its range are protected from development, but climate and other global-change factors potentially can limit populations. A. canorus reproduces in ultra-shallow wetlands that typically hydrate seasonally via melting of the winter snowpack. Lesser snowpacks in drier years can render wetland water volumes and hydroperiods insufficient to allow for successful breeding and reproduction. Additionally, breeding and embryogenesis occur very soon after wetlands thaw when overnight temperatures can be below freezing. Diseases, such as chytridiomycosis, which recently decimated regional populations of ranid species, also might cause declines of A. canorus populations. However, reported studies focused on whether climate interacts with any pathogens to affect fitness in A. canorus have been scarce. We investigated effects of these factors on A. canorus near Tioga Pass from 1996 to 2001. We found breeding subpopulations were distributed widely but inconsistently among potentially suitable wetlands and frequently consisted of small numbers of adults. We occasionally observed small but not alarming numbers of dead adults at breeding sites. In contrast, embryo mortality often was notably high, with the majority of embryos dead in some egg masses while mortality among coincidental Pseudacris regilla (Pacific treefrog) embryos in deeper water was lower. After sampling and experimentation, we concluded that freezing killed A. canorus embryos, especially near the tops of egg masses, which enabled Saprolegnia diclina (a water mold [Oomycota]) to infect and then spread through egg masses and kill more embryos, often in conjunction with predatory flatworms ( Turbellaria spp.). We also concluded exposure to ultraviolet-B radiation did not play a role. Based upon our assessments of daily minimum temperatures recorded around snow-off during years before and after our field study, the freezing potential we observed at field sites during embryogenesis might have been commonplace beyond the years of our field study. However, interactions among snow quantity, the timing of snow-off, and coincidental air temperatures that determine such freezing potential make projections of future conditions highly uncertain, despite overall warming trends. Our results describe important effects from ongoing threats to the fitness and abundance of A. canorus via reduced reproduction success and demonstrate how climate conditions can exacerbate effects from pathogens to threaten the persistence of amphibian populations.

California↗
USGS2024

The impact of future changes in climate on breeding waterfowl pairs in the US Prairie Pothole Region

Millions of small (< 10 ha) waterbodies embedded in grassland and agroecosystems in midcontinental North America provide breeding habitat to an estimated 50–80% of North America’s migratory ducks. Tens of millions of dollars are invested annually to conserve and enhance upland and wetland habitats for breeding ducks by prioritizing locations predicted to have high densities of breeding pairs under average precipitation conditions. An implicit assumption of this approach is that the distribution of breeding habitat remains relatively static. Climate change is an identified risk to this strategy. To assess this assumption and plan for potential forthcoming conditions, we estimated changes in potential breeding duck pairs under different climate scenarios by combining results of 1) a mechanistic hydrology model that simulates ecosystem processes for a subset of wetlands distributed across the U.S. Prairie Pothole Region (USPPR); 2) four downscaled climate model projections at mid- and late-century time horizons; and 3) U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service multi-decadal datasets and predictive breeding waterfowl pair statistical models. We conducted virtual and in-person informational sessions with partners to inform them on the best practices of using downscaled global circulation models and approaches for climate scenario planning. This close coordination led to a joint presentation at a monthly North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center seminar. We are also co-developing simulated wetland- waterfowl responses under different climate futures for wetlands. Information from these robust predictions of waterfowl habitat and settling patterns in this region provides land-management agencies insights in prioritizing current conservation actions given uncertainty. In addition, understanding how many breeding pairs the USPPR might support in coming decades will likely influence overall breeding population sizes and sustainable harvest objectives across North America.

Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dak↗
USGS2017

Climate change as a long-term stressor for the fisheries of the Laurentian Great Lakes of North America

The Laurentian Great Lakes of North America provide valuable ecosystem services, including fisheries, to the surrounding population. Given the prevalence of other anthropogenic stressors that have historically affected the fisheries of the Great Lakes (e.g., eutrophication, invasive species, overfishing), climate change is often viewed as a long-term stressor and, subsequently, may not always be prioritized by managers and researchers. However, climate change has the potential to negatively affect fish and fisheries in the Great Lakes through its influence on habitat. In this paper, we (1) summarize projected changes in climate and fish habitat in the Great Lakes; (2) summarize fish responses to climate change in the Great Lakes; (3) describe key interactions between climate change and other stressors relevant to Great Lakes fish, and (4) summarize how climate change can be incorporated into fisheries management. In general, fish habitat is projected to be characterized by warmer temperatures throughout the water column, less ice cover, longer periods of stratification, and more frequent and widespread periods of bottom hypoxia in productive areas of the Great Lakes. Based solely on thermal habitat, fish populations theoretically could experience prolonged optimal growth environment within a changing climate, however, models that assess physical habitat influences at specific life stages convey a more complex picture. Looking at specific interactions with other stressors, climate change may exacerbate the negative impacts of both eutrophication and invasive species for fish habitat in the Great Lakes. Although expanding monitoring and research to consider climate change interactions with currently studied stressors, may offer managers the best opportunity to keep the valuable Great Lakes fisheries sustainable, this expansion is globally applicable for large lake ecosystem dealing with multiple stressors in the face of continued human-driven changes.

Great Lakes↗
USGS2024

Reduced freshwater mussel juvenile production as a result of agricultural and urban contaminant mixture exposures

Freshwater mussels provide invaluable ecological services but are threatened by habitat alteration, poor water quality, invasive species, climate change, and contaminants, including contaminants of emerging concern (CECs). Contaminants of emerging concerns are well documented in aquatic environments, including the Great Lakes Basin, but limited information is available on how environmentally relevant mixtures affect freshwater mussel biology throughout their varied life stages. Our main goal was to assess mussels' reproductive output in response to exposure to agricultural and urban CEC mixtures during glochidial development through juvenile transformation and excystment focusing on how exposure duration and treatment affect: (1) the number of glochidia prematurely released by brooding females, (2) glochidial transformation through host-fish excystment, and (3) the number of fully metamorphosed juveniles able to continue the lifecycle. Mussels and host fish were exposed to either a control water (CW), control ethanol (CE), agriculture CEC mixture (AM), or urban CEC mixture (UM) for 40 and 100 days. We found no effect from treatment or exposure duration on the number of glochidia prematurely released. Fewer partially and fully metamorphosed AM juveniles were observed during the 100-day exposure, compared with the 40-day. During the 40-day exposure, CW produced more fully metamorphosed individuals compared with CE and UM, but during the 100-day exposure AM produced more fully metamorphosed individuals compared with the CW. There was reduction in fully metamorphosed juveniles compared with partially metamorphosed for CE and UM during the 40-day exposure, as well as in the CW during the 100-day exposure. These results will be important for understanding how mussel populations are affected by CEC exposure. The experiments also yielded many insights for laboratory toxicology exposure studies.

Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry↗