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Results for “Climate Change Responses”

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At least 217 records · Page 12Linked to original sources
USGS2018

Adaptive population divergence and directional gene flow across steep elevational gradients in a climate‐sensitive mammal

The American pika is a thermally sensitive, alpine lagomorph species. Recent climate-associated population extirpations and genetic signatures of reduced population sizes range-wide indicate the viability of this species is sensitive to climate change. To test for potential adaptive responses to climate stress, we sampled pikas along two elevational gradients (each ~470 to 1640 m) and employed three outlier detection methods, BAYESCAN, LFMM, and BAYPASS, to scan for genotype-environment associations in samples genotyped at 30,763 SNP loci. We resolved 173 loci with robust evidence of natural selection detected by either two independent analyses or replicated in both transects. A BLASTN search of these outlier loci revealed several genes associated with metabolic function and oxygen transport, indicating natural selection from thermal stress and hypoxia. We also found evidence of directional gene flow primarily downslope from large high-elevation populations and reduced gene flow at outlier loci, a pattern suggesting potential impediments to the upward elevational movement of adaptive alleles in response to contemporary climate change. Finally, we documented evidence of reduced genetic diversity associated the south-facing transect and an increase in corticosterone stress levels associated with inbreeding. This study suggests the American pika is already undergoing climate-associated natural selection at multiple genomic regions. Further analysis is needed to determine if the rate of climate adaptation in the American pika and other thermally sensitive species will be able to keep pace with rapidly changing climate conditions.

Washington↗
USGS2013

Population-level thermal performance of a cold-water ectotherm is linked to ontogeny and local environmental heterogeneity

Negative effects of global warming are predicted to be most severe for species that occupy a narrow range of temperatures, have limited dispersal abilities or have long generation times. These are characteristics typical of many species that occupy small, cold streams. Habitat use, vulnerabilities and mechanisms for coping with local conditions can differ among populations and ontogenetically within populations, potentially affecting species‐level responses to climate change. However, we still have little knowledge of mean thermal performance for many vertebrates, let alone variation in performance among populations. Assessment of these sources of variation in thermal performance is critical for projecting the effects of climate change on species and for identifying management strategies to ameliorate its effects. To gauge how populations of the Rocky Mountain tailed frog ( Ascaphus montanus ) might respond to long‐term effects of climate change, we measured the ability of tadpoles from six populations in Glacier National Park (Montana, U.S.A.) to acclimate to a range of temperatures. We compared survival among populations according to tadpole age (1 year or 2 years) and according to the mean and variance of late‐summer temperatures in natal streams. The ability of tadpoles to acclimate to warm temperatures increased with age and with variance in late‐summer temperature of natal streams. Moreover, performance differed among populations from the same catchment. Our experiments with a cold‐water species show that population‐level performance varies across small geographic scales and is linked to local environmental heterogeneity. This variation could influence the rate and mode of species‐level responses to climate change, both by facilitating local persistence in the face of changes in thermal conditions and by providing thermally tolerant colonists to neighbouring populations.

Montana↗
USGS2023

Unprecedented distribution data for Joshua trees (Yucca brevifolia and Y. jaegeriana) reveal contemporary climate associations of a Mojave Desert icon

Introduction: Forecasting range shifts in response to climate change requires accurate species distribution models (SDMs), particularly at the margins of species' ranges. However, most studies producing SDMs rely on sparse species occurrence datasets from herbarium records and public databases, along with random pseudoabsences. While environmental covariates used to fit SDMS are increasingly precise due to satellite data, the availability of species occurrence records is still a large source of bias in model predictions. We developed distribution models for hybridizing sister species of western and eastern Joshua trees ( Yucca brevifolia and Y. jaegeriana , respectively), iconic Mojave Desert species that are threatened by climate change and habitat loss. Methods: We conducted an intensive visual grid search of online satellite imagery for 672,043 0.25 km 2 grid cells to identify the two species' presences and absences on the landscape with exceptional resolution, and field validated 29,050 cells in 15,001 km of driving. We used the resulting presence/absence data to train SDMs for each Joshua tree species, revealing the contemporary environmental gradients (during the past 40 years) with greatest influence on the current distribution of adult trees. Results: While the environments occupied by Y. brevifolia and Y. jaegeriana were similar in total aridity, they differed with respect to seasonal precipitation and temperature ranges, suggesting the two species may have differing responses to climate change. Moreover, the species showed differing potential to occupy each other's geographic ranges: modeled potential habitat for Y. jaegeriana extends throughout the range of Y. brevifolia , while potential habitat for Y. brevifolia is not well represented within the range of Y. jaegeriana . Discussion: By reproducing the current range of the Joshua trees with high fidelity, our dataset can serve as a baseline for future research, monitoring, and management of this species, including an increased understanding of dynamics at the trailing and leading margins of the species' ranges and potential for climate refugia.

Frontiers Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2007

Lake-level variability and water availability in the Great Lakes

In this report, we present recorded and reconstructed (pre-historical) changes in water levels in the Great Lakes, relate them to climate changes of the past, and highlight major water-availability implications for storage, coastal ecosystems, and human activities. 'Water availability,' as conceptualized herein, includes a recognition that water must be available for human and natural uses, but the balancing of how much should be set aside for which use is not discussed. The Great Lakes Basin covers a large area of North America. The lakes capture and store great volumes of water that are critical in maintaining human activities and natural ecosystems. Water enters the lakes mostly in the form of precipitation and streamflow. Although flow through the connecting channels is a primary output from the lakes, evaporation is also a major output. Water levels in the lakes vary naturally on timescales that range from hours to millennia; storage of water in the lakes changes at the seasonal to millennial scales in response to lake-level changes. Short-term changes result from storm surges and seiches and do not affect storage. Seasonal changes are driven by differences in net basin supply during the year related to snowmelt, precipitation, and evaporation. Annual to millennial changes are driven by subtle to major climatic changes affecting both precipitation (and resulting streamflow) and evaporation. Rebounding of the Earth's surface in response to loss of the weight of melted glaciers has differentially affected water levels. Rebound rates have not been uniform across the basin, causing the hydrologic outlet of each lake to rise in elevation more rapidly than some parts of the coastlines. The result is a long-term change in lake level with respect to shoreline features that differs from site to site. The reconstructed water-level history of Lake Michigan-Huron over the past 4,700 years shows three major high phases from 2,300 to 3,300, 1,100 to 2,000, and 0 to 800 years ago. Within that record is a quasi-periodic rise and fall of about 160 ? 40 years in duration and a shorter fluctuation of 32 ? 6 years that is superimposed on the 160-year fluctuation. Recorded lake-level history from 1860 to the present falls within the longer-term pattern and appears to be a single 160-year quasi-periodic fluctuation. Independent investigations of past climate change in the basin over the long-term period of record confirm that most of these changes in lake level were responses to climatically driven changes in water balance, including lake-level highstands commonly associated with cooler climatic conditions and lows with warm climate periods. The mechanisms underlying these large hydroclimatic anomalies are not clear, but they may be related to internal dynamics of the ocean-atmosphere system or dynamical responses of the ocean-atmosphere system to variability in solar radiation or volcanic activity. The large capacities of the Great Lakes allow them to store great volumes of water. As calculated at chart datum, Lake Superior stores more water (2,900 mi3) than all the other lakes combined (2,539 mi3). Lake Michigan's storage is 1,180 mi3; Lake Huron's, 850 mi3; Lake Ontario's, 393 mi3; and Lake Erie's, 116 mi3. Seasonal lake-level changes alter storage by as much as 6 mi3 in Lake Superior and as little as 2.1 mi3 in Lake Erie. The extreme high and low lake levels measured in recorded lake-level history have altered storage by as much as 31 mi3 in Lake Michigan-Huron and as little as 9 mi3 in Lake Ontario. Diversions of water into and out of the lakes are very small compared to the total volume of water stored in the lakes. The water level of Lake Superior has been regulated since about 1914 and levels of Lake Ontario since about 1960. The range of Lake Superior water-level fluctuations and storage has not been altered greatly by regulation. However, fluctuations on Lake Ontario have been reduced from 6.6 ft preregulation

Circular↗
USGS1996

Differentiating climatic and successional influences on long-term development of a marsh

Comparison of long—term records of local wetland vegetation dynamics with regional, climate—forced terrestrial vegetation changes can be used to differentiate the rates and effects of autogenic successional processes and allogenic environmental change on wetland vegetation dynamics. We studied Holocene plant macrofossil and pollen sequences from Portage Marsh, a shallow, 18—ha marsh in northeastern Indiana. Between 10 000 and 5700 yr BP the basin was occupied by a shallow, open lake, while upland vegetation consisted of mesic forests of Pinus, Quercus, Ulmus, and Carya. At 5700 yr BP the open lake was replaced rapidly by a shallow marsh, while simultaneously Quercus savanna developed on the surrounding uplands. The marsh was characterized by periodic drawdowns, and the uplands by periodic fires. Species composition of the marsh underwent further changes between 3000 and 2000 yr BP. Upland pollen spectra at Portage Marsh and other sites in the region shifted towards more mesic vegetation during that period. The consistency and temporal correspondence between the changes in upland vegetation and marsh vegetation indicate that the major vegetational changes in the marsh during the Holocene resulted from hydrologic changes forced by regional climate change. Progressive shallowing of the basin by autogenic accumulation of organic sediment constrained vegetational responses to climate change but did not serve as the direct mechanism of change.

Ecology↗
USGS2014

Adaptive responses reveal contemporary and future ecotypes in a desert shrub

Interacting threats to ecosystem function, including climate change, wildfire, and invasive species necessitate native plant restoration in desert ecosystems. However, native plant restoration efforts often remain unguided by ecological genetic information. Given that many ecosystems are in flux from climate change, restoration plans need to account for both contemporary and future climates when choosing seed sources. In this study we analyze vegetative responses, including mortality, growth, and carbon isotope ratios in two blackbrush (Coleogyne ramosissima) common gardens that included 26 populations from a range-wide collection. This shrub occupies ecotones between the warm and cold deserts of Mojave and Colorado Plateau ecoregions in western North America. The variation observed in the vegetative responses of blackbrush populations was principally explained by grouping populations by ecoregions and by regression with site-specific climate variables. Aridity weighted by winter minimum temperatures best explained vegetative responses; Colorado Plateau sites were usually colder and drier than Mojave sites. The relationship between climate and vegetative response was mapped within the boundaries of the species–climate space projected for the contemporary climate and for the decade surrounding 2060. The mapped ecological genetic pattern showed that genetic variation could be classified into cool-adapted and warm-adapted ecotypes, with populations often separated by steep clines. These transitions are predicted to occur in both the Mojave Desert and Colorado Plateau ecoregions. While under contemporary conditions the warm-adapted ecotype occupies the majority of climate space, climate projections predict that the cool-adapted ecotype could prevail as the dominant ecotype as the climate space of blackbrush expands into higher elevations and latitudes. This study provides the framework for delineating climate change-responsive seed transfer guidelines, which are needed to inform restoration and management planning. We propose four transfer zones in blackbrush that correspond to areas currently dominated by cool-adapted and warm-adapted ecotypes in each of the two ecoregions.

Arizona;California;Colorado;Nevada;New Mexico;Utah↗
USGS2018

Microspatial ecotone dynamics at a shifting range limit: plant–soil variation across salt marsh–mangrove interfaces

Ecotone dynamics and shifting range limits can be used to advance our understanding of the ecological implications of future range expansions in response to climate change. In the northern Gulf of Mexico, the salt marsh–mangrove ecotone is an area where range limits and ecotone dynamics can be studied in tandem as recent decreases in winter temperature extremes have allowed for mangrove expansion at the expense of salt marsh. In this study, we assessed aboveground and belowground plant–soil dynamics across the salt marsh–mangrove ecotone quantifying micro-spatial patterns in horizontal extent. Specifically, we studied vegetation and rooting dynamics of large and small trees, the impact of salt marshes (e.g. species and structure) on mangroves, and the influence of vegetation on soil properties along transects from underneath the mangrove canopy into the surrounding salt marsh. Vegetation and rooting dynamics differed in horizontal reach, and there was a positive relationship between mangrove tree height and rooting extent. We found that the horizontal expansion of mangrove roots into salt marsh extended up to eight meters beyond the aboveground boundary. Variation in vegetation structure and local hydrology appear to control mangrove seedling dynamics. Finally, soil carbon density and organic matter did not differ within locations across the salt marsh-mangrove interface. By studying aboveground and belowground variation across the ecotone, we can better predict the ecological effects of continued range expansion in response to climate change.

Oecologia↗
USGS2016

Relations of alpine plant communities across environmental gradients: Multilevel versus multiscale analyses

Alpine plant communities vary, and their environmental covariates could influence their response to climate change. A single multilevel model of how alpine plant community composition is determined by hierarchical relations is compared to a separate examination of those relations at different scales. Nonmetric multidimensional scaling of species cover for plots in four regions across the Rocky Mountains created dependent variables. Climate variables are derived for the four regions from interpolated data. Plot environmental variables are measured directly and the presence of thirty-seven site characteristics is recorded and used to create additional independent variables. Multilevel and best subsets regressions are used to determine the strength of the hypothesized relations. The ordinations indicate structure in the assembly of plant communities. The multilevel analyses, although revealing significant relations, provide little explanation; of the site variables, those related to site microclimate are most important. In multiscale analyses (whole and separate regions), different variables are better explanations within the different regions. This result indicates weak environmental niche control of community composition. The weak relations of the structure in the patterns of species association to the environment indicates that either alpine vegetation represents a case of the neutral theory of biogeography being a valid explanation or that it represents disequilibrium conditions. The implications of neutral theory and disequilibrium explanations are similar: Response to climate change will be difficult to quantify above equilibrium background turnover.

Annals of the Association of American Geographers↗
USGS2013

Early indicators of change: divergent climate envelopes between tree life stages imply range shifts in the western United States

Aim To determine if differences in climate envelopes for six coniferous tree species and two life stages (trees and seedlings) suggest a potential for species range contractions, expansions or shifts in response to climate change and if these patterns differ between subalpine (i.e. cool-climate) and montane (i.e. warm-climate) species. Location The dry domain of the western United States. Methods Using data from the Forest Inventory and Analysis National Program, we quantified the relationship between probability of occurrence and climate for adults and seedlings of each species with a Bayesian logistic regression. Assuming that distributional differences between life stages highlight shifting regeneration patterns relative to adult trees, we assessed differences between seedlings and adult trees based on predicted probabilities of occurrence and climate envelope boundaries. Results Differences between occurrence probabilities for seedlings and adults were greatest for montane, as opposed to subalpine, species and along range margins, especially in the southern and western portions of the study area. Climate envelope boundaries of seedlings differed from adult trees most frequently in montane species and often suggested range contractions or range shifts, as opposed to range expansion. Main conclusions Our results indicated that climate-induced contractions and shifts in seedling distribution in response to recent change are already under way and are particularly severe in montane tree species. While adult trees may persist for hundreds of years without significant regeneration, tree species ranges will eventually contract where tree regeneration fails.

Colorado;Idaho;Montana;Utah;Wyoming↗
USGS2021

Limited shifts in the distribution of migratory bird breeding habitat density in response to future changes in climate

Grasslands, and the depressional wetlands that exist throughout them, are endangered ecosystems that face both climate and land-use change pressures. Tens of millions of dollars are invested annually to manage the existing fragments of these ecosystems to serve as critical breeding habitat for migratory birds. The North American Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) is a region that contains millions of depressional wetlands that produce between 50 and 80% of the continent’s waterfowl population and. Previous modeling efforts suggested that climate change would result in a shift of suitable waterfowl breeding habitat from the central to the southeast portion of the PPR, an area where over half of the wetlands have been drained. The implications of these projections suggest a massive investment in wetland restoration in the southeastern PPR would be needed to sustain waterfowl populations at harvestable levels. We revisited these modeled results indicating how future climate may impact the distribution of waterfowl-breeding habitat using up-to-date climate model projections and a newly developed model for simulating prairie-pothole wetland hydrology. We also presented changes to the number of “May ponds,” a metric used by U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to estimate waterfowl breeding populations and establish harvest regulations. Based on the output of 32 climate models and 2 emission scenarios, we found no evidence that the distribution of May ponds would shift in the future. However, our results projected a 17% decrease to 5% increase in May-pond numbers when comparing the most recent climate period (1989–2018) to the end of the 21st century (2070–2099). When combined, our results suggest areas in the PPR that that currently support the highest densities of intact wetland basins, and thus support the largest numbers of breeding-duck pairs, will likely also be the places most critical to maintaining continental waterfowl populations in an uncertain future.

Prairie Potholes Region↗
USGS1996

Southeast Atlantic marine and terrestrial response to middle Pliocene climate change

Analysis of planktic foraminifers and pollen from Deep Sea Drilling Project Site 532 located on the continental margin of southwest Africa provides information on the link between Pliocene paleoceanographic conditions and paleoenvironments of southwest Africa. Increased upwelling at Site 532 correlates with southward migration of onshore vegetation regions. Both terrestrial and marine changes can be explained by changes in the southern hemisphere surface temperature gradient which affected the paleo-position of subtropical high pressure cells and productivity of water masses during the Pliocene. When the subtropical high pressure cells were further south, Southern Ocean waters were warmer, contained less sea ice, Southern Ocean diatom productivity was high, and nutrient depleted water upwelled off southwest Africa. When the subtropical high pressure cells were in a configuration similar to the present, Southern Ocean waters were cooler and contained more sea ice, the aerial extent of Southern Ocean diatom productivity was limited, and nutrient rich waters upwelled off southwest Africa as the Benguela upwelling system migrated closer to the position of Site 532.

Marine Micropaleontology↗
USGS2016

Improved ground-based remote-sensing systems help monitor plant response to climate and other changes

Scientists at the U.S. Geological Survey are improving and developing new ground-based remote-sensing instruments and techniques to study how Earth’s vegetation responds to changing climates. Do seasonal grasslands and forests “green up” early (or late) and grow more (or less) during unusually warm years? How do changes in temperature and precipitation affect these patterns? Innovations in ground-based remote-sensing instrumentation can help us understand, assess, and mitigate the effects of climate change on vegetation and related land resources.

Fact Sheet↗
USGS2009

Investigation into the Origin and Character of Surficial Sedimentary Deposits at the Midshore Regional Solid Waste Facility near Easton, Maryland

A temporary exposure at the Midshore Regional Solid Waste Facility near Easton, MD, provided an opportunity to document the characteristics of the complex assemblage of surficial facies in that area. This unusually large cross section allowed interpretation of the changing processes that shaped the landscape in response to climate change through the late Pleistocene. Eight stratigraphic units were recognized: (1) gray, fossiliferous, muddy silt of the marine Miocene Choptank Formation; (2) coarse, crossbedded conglomerate of the late Miocene to Pliocene fluvial Pensauken Formation; (3) bioturbated muddy conglomerate interpreted as deposits of small colluvial fans; (4) pebbly, quartzose sand overlying a planar erosional surface reflecting a marine transgression; (5) irregular pods and lenses of sand and gravel deformed into bowl-shaped folds and faulted, which are interpreted as wind deposits over a semipermanent snow cover (niveo-aeolian deposits); (6) crossbedded sand and conglomerate with abundant mud partings indicating tidal influences on sinuous stream channels; (7) heavily bioturbated silt and sand with abundant root casts and flattened vesicles interpreted as aeolian loess deposits in marshy fens; and (8) pebbly sand and mud with scattered boulders and cobbles that reflect modern infill of the excavation by the operators. Soils formed on units 3, 4, and 7. Superimposed on units 4, 5, and 7 is evidence of deep freezing and permafrost development and subsequent thermokarst development after thawing, which includes large, complexly filled wedge-shaped cracks, deformed bedding and faults, fluid-injection structures, and spherical blobs of sand and mud. Each of the stratigraphic units has irregular distributions and lateral changes. The results of this study provide a unique insight into the geometry of surficial deposits that will help facilitate mapping of units, interpretation of cored intervals, and understanding of ground-penetrating radar profiles. The study also documents the widespread effects of permafrost during the last glacial episode well south of the maximum advance of ice sheets.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2021

Streamflow response to potential changes in climate in the Upper Rio Grande Basin

The Rio Grande is a vital water source for the southwestern States of Colorado, New Mexico, and Texas and for northern Mexico. The river serves as the primary source of water for irrigation in the region, has many environmental and recreational uses, and is used by more than 13 million people including those in the Cities of Albuquerque and Las Cruces, New Mexico; El Paso, Texas; and Ciudad Juárez, Chihuahua, Mexico. However, concern is growing over the increasing gap between water supply and demand in the Upper Rio Grande Basin. As populations increase and agricultural crop patterns change, demands for water are increasing, at the same time the region is undergoing a decrease in supply due to drought and climate change. Quantifying the impact of projected climate change on Rio Grande streamflow is difficult because of numerous anthropogenic influences on the hydrologic system. The conveyance and use of surface water in the Upper Rio Grande Basin are achieved through an engineered system of reservoirs, diversions, and irrigation canals designed to deliver water to agricultural, municipal, and industrial users, who greatly reduce the cumulative volume of water in the river. For example, streamflow at Fort Quitman, Tex., the southernmost point of the Upper Rio Grande Basin, has undergone a 95-percent reduction in flow relative to the river’s native state, and some stretches of the river can intermittently go dry. Because streamflow in the basin is highly altered, disentangling the impacts of climate change and changes in streamflow due to anthropogenic influences such as dams, diversions, and other forms of water use is difficult. Therefore, a model of naturalized flow was developed to determine to what degree changes in streamflow can be attributed to potential changes in future temperature and precipitation without quantifying future changes in anthropogenic influences. This study, conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the South Central Climate Adaptation Science Center and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, included the development and calibration of a watershed model of the Upper Rio Grande Basin using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System to simulate naturalized streamflow conditions for historical and future time periods.

Colorado, New Mexico, Texas↗
USGS2019

Temperature thresholds for black mangrove (Avicennia germinans) freeze damage, mortality, and recovery in North America: Refining tipping points for range expansion in a warming climate

Near the tropical‐temperate transition zone, warming winter temperatures are expected to facilitate the poleward range expansion of freeze‐sensitive tropical organisms. In coastal wetlands of eastern and central North America, freeze‐sensitive woody plants (mangroves) are expected to expand northward into regions currently dominated by freeze‐tolerant herbaceous salt marsh plants. To advance understanding of mangrove range expansion, there is a need to refine temperature thresholds for mangrove freeze damage, mortality, and recovery. We integrated data from 38 sites spread across the mangrove range edge in the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coasts of North America, including data from a regional collaborative network — the Mangrove Migration Network. In 2018, an extreme freeze event affected 60% of these sites, with minimum temperatures ranging from 0 to ‐7°C. We used temperature and vegetation data from before and after the freeze to quantify temperature thresholds for leaf damage, mortality, and biomass recovery of the black mangrove (Avicennia germinans) — the most freeze‐tolerant mangrove species in North America. For A. germinans individuals near their northern range limit, our results indicate that temperature thresholds for leaf damage are close to ‐4°C, but temperature thresholds for mortality are closer to ‐7°C. Thresholds are expected to be warmer for more southern A. germinans individuals and for the other two common mangrove species in the region (Laguncularia racemosa and Rhizophora mangle). Regenerative buds allowed A. germinans to resprout and recover quickly from aboveground freeze damage. Hence, biomass recovery levels during the first post‐freeze growing season were 90, 78, 62, and 45% for temperatures of ‐4, ‐5, ‐6, and ‐7°C, respectively. Due to a combination of vigorous resprouting and new recruitment from propagules, we expect full recovery at most sites within 1‐3 years, assuming no further freeze events. Synthesis To improve predictions of tropical range expansion in response to climate change, there is a need to better understand tropical species’ responses to winter temperature extremes. Collectively, our results refine temperature thresholds for A. germinans freeze damage, mortality, and recovery, which can improve predictions of mangrove range expansion and coastal wetland ecological transformations in a warming climate.

Florida, Mississippi, Louisiana, Texas↗
USGS2021

Shift of potential natural vegetation against global climate change under historical, current and future scenarios

Potential natural vegetation (PNV), the final successional stage of vegetation, plays a key role in ecological restoration, the design of nature reserves, and development of agriculture and livestock production. Meteorological data from historical and current periods including the last inter-glacial (LIG), last glacial maximum (LGM), mid Holocene (MH) periods and the present day (PD), plus derived data from 2050 and 2070, in conjunction with the Comprehensive and Sequential Classification System (CSCS) model, were used to classify global PNV. The 42 classes of global PNV were regrouped into 10 groups to facilitate analysis of spatial changes. Finally, spatio-temporal patterns and successional processes of global PNV as well as the response to climate changes were analysed. Our study made the following five conclusions. (1) Only one missing class (IA1 frigid-extrarid frigid desert, alpine desert) arose in periods of LIG, MH, 2050, and 2070 for global PNV. (2) The frigid-arid groups were mainly distributed in higher latitudes and elevations, but temperate-humid groups and tropical-perhumid groups occurred in middle and low latitudes, respectively. Temperate zonal forest steppe, warm desert, savanna and tropical zonal forest steppe increased, while six other groups decreased. (3) The conversion from temperate zonal forest steppe to tundra and alpine steppe from LIG to LGM occupied the largest area, indicating a drastic shift in climate and the associated response of terrestrial vegetation sensitive to climate change. (4) The CSCS could be used to simulate the long-term succession of global PNV. (5) As a consequence of global warming, forests shifted to the northern hemisphere and Tibet, areas with much higher latitude and elevation. The PNV groups with greater shift distance revealed the more serious effects of global climate change on vegetation.

Rangeland Journal↗
USGS2017

Soil microbial community composition is correlated to soil carbon processing along a boreal wetland formation gradient

Climate change is modifying global biogeochemical cycles. Microbial communities play an integral role in soil biogeochemical cycles; knowledge about microbial composition helps provide a mechanistic understanding of these ecosystem-level phenomena. Next generation sequencing approaches were used to investigate changes in microbial functional groups during ecosystem development, in response to climate change, in northern boreal wetlands. A gradient of wetlands that developed following permafrost degradation was used to characterize changes in the soil microbial communities that mediate C cycling: a bog representing an “undisturbed” system with intact permafrost, and a younger bog and an older bog that formed following the disturbance of permafrost thaw. Reference 16S rRNA databases and several diversity indices were used to assess structural differences among these communities, to assess relationships between soil microbial community composition and various environmental variables including redox potential and pH. Rates of potential CO2 and CH4 gas production were quantified to correlate sequence data with gas flux. The abundance of organic C degraders was highest in the youngest bog, suggesting higher rates of microbial processes, including potential CH4 production. In addition, alpha diversity was also highest in the youngest bog, which seemed to be related to a more neutral pH and a lower redox potential. These results could potentially be driven by increased niche differentiation in anaerobic soils. These results suggest that ecosystem structure, which was largely driven by changes in edaphic and plant community characteristics between the “undisturbed” permafrost bog and the two bogs formed following permafrost thaw, strongly influenced microbial function.

European Journal of Soil Biology↗