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At least 217 records · Page 12Linked to original sources

Variability in synthetic earthquake ground motions caused by source variability and errors in wave propagation models

Numerical simulations of earthquake ground motions are used both to anticipate the effects of hypothetical earthquakes by forward simulation and to infer the behaviour of the real earthquake source ruptures by the inversion of recorded ground motions. In either application it is necessary to assume some Earth structure that is necessarily inaccurate and to use a computational method that is also inaccurate for simulating the wavefield Green's functions. We refer to these two sources of error as ‘propagation inaccuracies’, which might be considered to be epistemic. We show that the variance of the Fourier spectrum of the synthetic earthquake seismograms caused by propagation inaccuracies is related to the spatial covariance on the rupture surface of errors in the computed Green's functions, which we estimate for the case of the 2009 L'Aquila, Italy, earthquake by comparing erroneous computed Green's functions with observed L'Aquila aftershock seismograms (empirical Green's functions). We further show that the variance of the synthetic seismograms caused by the rupture variability (aleatory uncertainty) is related to the spatial covariance on the rupture surface of aleatory variations in the rupture model, and we investigate the effect of correlated variations in Green's function errors and variations in rupture models. Thus, we completely characterize the variability of synthetic earthquake seismograms induced by errors in propagation and variability in the rupture behaviour. We calculate the spectra of the variance of the ground motions of the L'Aquila main shock caused by propagation inaccuracies for two specific broad-band stations, the AQU and the FIAM stations. These variances are distressingly large, being comparable or in some cases exceeding the data amplitudes, suggesting that the best-fitting L'Aquila rupture model significantly overfits the data and might be seriously in error. If these computed variances are typical, the accuracy of many other rupture models for past earthquakes may need to be reconsidered. The results of this work might be useful in seismic hazard estimation because the variability of the computed ground motion, caused both by propagation inaccuracies and variations in the rupture model, can be computed directly, not requiring laborious consideration of multiple Earth structures.

Geophysical Journal International

Rheology of basalt in the melting range

Experimental data have been obtained for viscosities of tholeiite melts at temperatures from 1300 to 1120 °Cat 1 atm, using a concentric cylinder viscometer. The apparent viscosity increases more than two orders of magnitude between 1200 and 1120 °C (0–25 per cent crystallization) for shear rates of about 10 sec -1 and even more for lower shear rates. Non-Newtonian behaviour of ‘pseudo-plastic type’ becomes extremely pronounced at temperatures below about 1130 °C. At these temperatures, differences of less than 5 °C can produce changes in apparent viscosity amounting to orders of magnitude. These observations have led to the conclusion that the heat of deformation must itself influence rheological behaviour in the melting range. An equation for thermal energy balances and their rates of change is constructed and placed in a non-dimensional form that has been given published solutions by I. J. Gruntfest (1963) relating the shear stress, rate of strain, and temperature through the temperature dependence of viscosity. The results show that in an adiabatic system the heating rate increases with time so that the temperature eventually runs out of bounds, a process termed ‘thermal feedback’ by Gruntfest. A hypothesis of shear melting is derived on the basis of a simplified viscosity function extrapolated to the solidus temperature. The hypothesis is applied to magma generation in the earth on the basis of dimensional arguments. It is also suggested that thermal instabilities give rise to a sort of viscous failure responsible for deep-focus earthquakes, and that the two phenomena have the same cause relating ultimately to a gravitational energy source.

Journal of Petrology

Plasticity of parental care under the risk of predation: how much should parents reduce care?

Predation can be an important agent of natural selection shaping parental care behaviours, and can also favour behavioural plasticity. Parent birds often decrease the rate that they visit the nest to provision offspring when perceived risk is high. Yet, the plasticity of such responses may differ among species as a function of either their relative risk of predation, or the mean rate of provisioning. Here, we report parental provisioning responses to experimental increases in the perceived risk of predation. We tested responses of 10 species of bird in north temperate Arizona and subtropical Argentina that differed in their ambient risk of predation. All species decreased provisioning rates in response to the nest predator but not to a control. However, provisioning rates decreased more in species that had greater ambient risk of predation on natural nests. These results support theoretical predictions that the extent of plasticity of a trait that is sensitive to nest predation risk should vary among species in accordance with predation risk.

Biology Letters

Predicting connectivity of green turtles at Palmyra Atoll, central Pacific: a focus on mtDNA and dispersal modelling

Population connectivity and spatial distribution are fundamentally related to ecology, evolution and behaviour. Here, we combined powerful genetic analysis with simulations of particle dispersal in a high-resolution ocean circulation model to investigate the distribution of green turtles foraging at the remote Palmyra Atoll National Wildlife Refuge, central Pacific. We analysed mitochondrial sequences from turtles ( n = 349) collected there over 5 years (2008–2012). Genetic analysis assigned natal origins almost exclusively (approx. 97%) to the West Central and South Central Pacific combined Regional Management Units. Further, our modelling results indicated that turtles could potentially drift from rookeries to Palmyra Atoll via surface currents along a near-Equatorial swathe traversing the Pacific. Comparing findings from genetics and modelling highlighted the complex impacts of ocean currents and behaviour on natal origins. Although the Palmyra feeding ground was highly differentiated genetically from others in the Indo-Pacific, there was no significant differentiation among years, sexes or stage-classes at the Refuge. Understanding the distribution of this foraging population advances knowledge of green turtles and contributes to effective conservation planning for this threatened species.

Journal of the Royal Society Interface

A depth-averaged debris-flow model that includes the effects of evolving dilatancy. I. Physical basis

To simulate debris-flow behaviour from initiation to deposition, we derive a depth-averaged, two-phase model that combines concepts of critical-state soil mechanics, grain-flow mechanics and fluid mechanics. The model's balance equations describe coupled evolution of the solid volume fraction, m , basal pore-fluid pressure, flow thickness and two components of flow velocity. Basal friction is evaluated using a generalized Coulomb rule, and fluid motion is evaluated in a frame of reference that translates with the velocity of the granular phase, v s . Source terms in each of the depth-averaged balance equations account for the influence of the granular dilation rate, defined as the depth integral of ∇⋅ v s . Calculation of the dilation rate involves the effects of an elastic compressibility and an inelastic dilatancy angle proportional to m − m eq , where m eq is the value of m in equilibrium with the ambient stress state and flow rate. Normalization of the model equations shows that predicted debris-flow behaviour depends principally on the initial value of m − m eq and on the ratio of two fundamental timescales. One of these timescales governs downslope debris-flow motion, and the other governs pore-pressure relaxation that modifies Coulomb friction and regulates evolution of m . A companion paper presents a suite of model predictions and tests.

Proceedings of the Royal Society A

Evidence for a receiver bias underlying female preference for a male mating pheromone in sea lamprey

Receiver bias models suggest that a male sexual signal became exaggerated to match a pre-existing sensory, perceptual or cognitive disposition of the female. Accordingly, these models predict that females of related taxa possessing the ancestral state of signalling evolved preference for the male trait in a non-sexual context. We postulated that female preference for the male-released bile alcohol mating pheromone, 3 keto petromyzonol sulfate (3kPZS), of the sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) evolved as a result of a receiver bias. In particular, we propose that migratory silver lamprey (Ichthyomyzon unicuspis), a basal member of the Petromyzontidae, evolved a preference for 3kPZS released by stream-resident larvae as a means of identifying productive habitat for offspring. Larval silver lamprey released 3kPZS at rates sufficient to be detected by migratory lampreys. Females responded to 3kPZS by exhibiting upstream movement behaviours relevant in a migratory context, but did not exhibit proximate behaviours important to mate search and spawning. Male silver lamprey did not release 3kPZS at rates sufficient to be detected by females in natural high-volume stream environments. We infer that female silver lamprey cue onto 3kPZS excreted by stream-resident larvae as a mechanism to locate habitat conducive to offspring survival and that males do not signal with 3kPZS. We suggest that this female preference for a male signal in a non-sexual context represents a bias leading to the sexual signalling observed in sea lamprey.

Michigan

Marine foraging ecology influences mercury bioaccumulation in deep-diving northern elephant seals

Mercury contamination of oceans is prevalent worldwide and methylmercury concentrations in the mesopelagic zone (200–1000 m) are increasing more rapidly than in surface waters. Yet mercury bioaccumulation in mesopelagic predators has been understudied. Northern elephant seals (Mirounga angustirostris) biannually travel thousands of kilometres to forage within coastal and open-ocean regions of the northeast Pacific Ocean. We coupled satellite telemetry, diving behaviour and stable isotopes (carbon and nitrogen) from 77 adult females, and showed that variability among individuals in foraging location, diving depth and δ 13 C values were correlated with mercury concentrations in blood and muscle. We identified three clusters of foraging strategies, and these resulted in substantially different mercury concentrations: (i) deeper-diving and offshore-foraging seals had the greatest mercury concentrations, (ii) shallower-diving and offshore-foraging seals had intermediate levels, and (iii) coastal and more northerly foraging seals had the lowest mercury concentrations. Additionally, mercury concentrations were lower at the end of the seven-month-long foraging trip (n = 31) than after the two-month- long post-breeding trip (n = 46). Our results indicate that foraging behaviour influences mercury exposure and mesopelagic predators foraging in the northeast Pacific Ocean may be at high risk for mercury bioaccumulation.

California

Stress hormones predict a host superspreader phenotype in the West Nile virus system

Glucocorticoid stress hormones, such as corticosterone (CORT), have profound effects on the behaviour and physiology of organisms, and thus have the potential to alter host competence and the contributions of individuals to population- and community-level pathogen dynamics. For example, CORT could alter the rate of contacts among hosts, pathogens and vectors through its widespread effects on host metabolism and activity levels. CORT could also affect the intensity and duration of pathogen shedding and risk of host mortality during infection. We experimentally manipulated songbird CORT, asking how CORT affected behavioural and physiological responses to a standardized West Nile virus (WNV) challenge. Although all birds became infected after exposure to the virus, only birds with elevated CORT had viral loads at or above the infectious threshold. Moreover, though the rate of mortality was faster in birds with elevated CORT compared with controls, most hosts with elevated CORT survived past the day of peak infectiousness. CORT concentrations just prior to inoculation with WNV and anti-inflammatory cytokine concentrations following viral exposure were predictive of individual duration of infectiousness and the ability to maintain physical performance during infection (i.e. tolerance), revealing putative biomarkers of competence. Collectively, our results suggest that glucocorticoid stress hormones could directly and indirectly mediate the spread of pathogens.

Proceedings of the Royal Society B

Economical defence of resources structures territorial space use in a cooperative carnivore

Ecologists have long sought to understand space use and mechanisms underlying patterns observed in nature. We developed an optimality landscape and mechanistic territory model to understand mechanisms driving space use and compared model predictions to empirical reality. We demonstrate our approach using grey wolves ( Canis lupus ). In the model, simulated animals selected territories to economically acquire resources by selecting patches with greatest value, accounting for benefits, costs and trade-offs of defending and using space on the optimality landscape. Our approach successfully predicted and explained first- and second-order space use of wolves, including the population's distribution, territories of individual packs, and influences of prey density, competitor density, human-caused mortality risk and seasonality. It accomplished this using simple behavioural rules and limited data to inform the optimality landscape. Results contribute evidence that economical territory selection is a mechanistic bridge between space use and animal distribution on the landscape. This approach and resulting gains in knowledge enable predicting effects of a wide range of environmental conditions, contributing to both basic ecological understanding of natural systems and conservation. We expect this approach will demonstrate applicability across diverse habitats and species, and that its foundation can help continue to advance understanding of spatial behaviour.

Montana

Foundational principles of an applied cultural evolutionary science for natural resource management and conservation

Culture, as the filter through which people view the world and a key determinant of human behaviour, is central to the practice of natural resource management and conservation. Conservation is intended to moderate the impacts of human cultural modification of the environment, exists as an endeavour because it is culturally valued, and acts largely through policies to encourage or discourage targeted human behaviours. However, culture is not static; as organisms and ecologies evolve, so too does culture exist as a dynamic, interconnected, coevolving element of the social–ecological systems in which management action is situated and implemented. Cultural evolution (CE) offers a valuable theoretical contribution to the scientific understanding of culture, cultural diversity and culture change and has the potential to be harnessed in the applied research and practice of conservation social science. We illustrate the essential principles necessary to grow an applied science of CE for natural resource management and conservation, and identify opportunities for CE to provide valuable information for science-based decision making and help conservation institutions and organizations adapt to the ongoing challenges posed by culture change. This transdisciplinary integration can contribute to improved outcomes across conservation objectives and build more resilient, sustainable social–ecological systems.

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B

Extreme site fidelity as an optimal strategy in an unpredictable and homogeneous environment

1.Animal site fidelity structures space use, population demography and ultimately gene flow. Understanding the adaptive selection for site fidelity patterns provides a mechanistic understanding to both spatial and population processes. This can be achieved by linking space use with environmental variability (spatial and temporal) and demographic parameters. However, rarely is the environmental context that drives the selection for site fidelity behaviour fully considered. 2. We use ecological theory to understand whether the spatial and temporal variability in breeding site quality can explain the site fidelity behaviour and demographic patterns of Gunnison sage-grouse (Centrocercus minimus). We examined female site fidelity patterns across multiple spatial scales: proximity of consecutive year nest locations, space-use overlap within and across the breeding and brooding seasons, and fidelity to a breeding patch. We also examined the spatial and temporal variability in nest, chick, juvenile and adult survival. 3. We found Gunnison sage-grouse to be site faithful to their breeding patch, area of use within the patch and generally where they nest, suggesting an “Always Stay” site fidelity strategy. This is an optimal evolutionary strategy when site quality is unpredictable. Further, we found limited spatial variability in survival within age groups, suggesting little demographic benefit to moving among patches. We suggest Gunnison sage-grouse site fidelity is driven by the unpredictability of predation in a relatively homogeneous environment, the lack of benefits and likely costs to moving across landscape patches and leaving known lek and breeding/brooding areas. 4. Space use and demography are commonly studied separately. More so, site fidelity patterns are rarely framed in the context of ecological theory, beyond questions related to the win-stay:lose-switch rule. To move beyond describing patterns and understand the adaptive selection driving species movements and their demographic consequences require integrating movement, demography and environmental variability in a synthetic framework. 5. Site fidelity theory provides a coherent framework to simultaneously investigate the spatial and population ecology of animal populations. Using it to frame ecological questions will lead to a more mechanistic understanding of animal movement, spatial population structuring and meta-population dynamics.

Colorado

Risk of predation on offspring reduces parental provisioning, but not flight performance or survival across early life stages

Developmental responses can help young animals reduce predation risk but can also yield costs to performance and survival in subsequent life stages with major implications for lifetime fitness. Compensatory mechanisms may evolve to offset such costs, but evidence from natural systems is largely lacking. In songbirds, increased nest predation risk should favour reduced provisioning, but also young that fledge (leave their nest) at an earlier age. Both responses can result in fledglings with shorter wings, reduced mobility and decreased survival. Young may compensate for shorter wings developmentally by reallocating resources towards feather development or behaviourally by adjusting flight kinematics or habitat use. However, underfed young may lack the capacity to express these phenotypes due to insufficient resources or an inability to adjust allocation of resources. Using predation risk experiments and 29 years of observational field data, we test whether increased nest predation risk reduces flight performance and survival during the fledgling stage and explore potential mechanisms that might underlie these effects. We show that young from high-risk nests did not leave the nest earlier on average, but wing growth was slower likely due to observed reductions in parental feeding rates. Wings were shorter in high-risk nests when fledglings left the nest early. Yet, fledglings from high-risk nests showed improved flight performance for a given wing length such that flight performance at fledging did not differ between young from high-risk and low-risk nests. Young from high-risk nests may have offset the costs of shorter wings on flight performance by accelerating the emergence of flight feathers from their sheaths to reduce wing porosity, though evidence for this mechanism was mixed. Fledglings from high-risk nests also selected habitat with denser woody vegetation compared with young from low-risk nests. Together, these developmental and behavioural responses seem to mitigate the expected effects of increased nest predation risk on fledgling survival. Ultimately, our results show that offspring predation risk can affect parental provisioning and offspring morphology without major implications for performance and survival in subsequent life stages.

Arizona

When Siberia came to the Netherlands: The response of continental black-tailed godwits to a rare spring weather event

Summary Extreme weather events have the potential to alter both short- and long-term population dynamics as well as community- and ecosystem-level function. Such events are rare and stochastic, making it difficult to fully document how organisms respond to them and predict the repercussions of similar events in the future. To improve our understanding of the mechanisms by which short-term events can incur long-term consequences, we documented the behavioural responses and fitness consequences for a long-distance migratory bird, the continental black-tailed godwit Limosa limosa limosa , resulting from a spring snowstorm and three-week period of record low temperatures. The event caused measurable responses at three spatial scales – continental, regional and local – including migratory delays (+19 days), reverse migrations (>90 km), elevated metabolic costs (+8·8% maintenance metabolic rate) and increased foraging rates (+37%). There were few long-term fitness consequences, however, and subsequent breeding seasons instead witnessed high levels of reproductive success and little evidence of carry-over effects. This suggests that populations with continued access to food, behavioural flexibility and time to dissipate the costs of the event can likely withstand the consequences of an extreme weather event. For populations constrained in one of these respects, though, extreme events may entail extreme ecological consequences.

Journal of Animal Ecology

Mate fidelity improves survival and breeding propensity of a long‐lived bird

Evolutionary and behavioural ecologists have long been interested in factors shaping the variation in mating behaviour observed in nature. Although much of the research on this topic has focused on the consequences of mate choice and mate change on annual reproductive success, studies of a potential positive link between mate fidelity and adult demographic rates have been comparatively rare. This is particularly true for long‐lived birds with multi‐year, socially monogamous pair bonds. We used a 26‐year capture–mark–recapture dataset of 3,330 black brent Branta bernicla nigricans to test whether breeding with a familiar mate improved future breeding propensity and survival. We predicted that experienced breeders nesting with a new partner would have rates of survival similar to familiar pairs because long‐lived species avoid jeopardizing survival since their lifetime fitness is sensitive to this vital rate. In contrast, we expected that any costs of breeding with a new partner would be paid through skipping the subsequent breeding attempt. We found that unfamiliar pairs had lower subsequent breeding propensity than faithful partners. However, contrary to our expectations, individuals breeding with a new mate also suffered reduced survival. These results add to a small number of studies indicating that a positive relationship between mate retention and adult demographic rates may exist in a diverse array of avian species. Given these results, researchers should consider costs of mate change that extend beyond within‐season reproductive success to fully understand the potential adaptive basis for perennial social monogamy. We caution that if mate retention enhances survival prospects, improvements in annual reproductive success with pair‐bond length could be a secondary factor favouring perennial social monogamy, particularly in species with slower life‐history strategies. Furthermore, some cases where annual reproductive success does not improve with pair‐bond duration, yet multi‐year pair bonds are common, could be explained by benefits afforded by mate fidelity to adult vital rates.

Journal of Animal Ecology

Informed breeding dispersal following stochastic changes to patch quality in a pond-breeding amphibian

The unidirectional movement of animals between breeding patches (i.e. breeding dispersal) has profound implications for the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of spatially structured populations. In spatiotemporally variable environments, individuals are expected to adjust their dispersal decisions according to information gathered on the environmental and/or social cues that reflect the fitness prospects in a given breeding patch (i.e. informed dispersal). A paucity of empirical work limited our understanding of the ability of animals to depart from low-quality breeding patches and settle in high-quality breeding patches. We examined the capacity of individuals to respond to stochastic changes in habitat quality via informed breeding dispersal in a pond-breeding amphibian. We conducted a 5-year (2015–2019) capture–recapture study of boreal toads Anaxyrus boreas boreas ( n = 1,100) that breed in beaver ponds in western Wyoming, USA. During early spring of 2017, an extreme flooding event destroyed several beaver dams and resulted in the loss of breeding habitat. We used multi-state models to investigate how temporal changes in pond characteristics influenced breeding dispersal, and determine whether movement decisions were in accordance with prospects for reproductive fitness. Boreal toads more often departed from low-quality breeding ponds (without successful metamorphosis) and settled in high-quality breeding ponds (with successful metamorphosis). Movement decisions were context-dependent and associated with pond characteristics altered by beaver dam destruction. Individuals were more likely to depart from shallow ponds with high vegetation cover and settle in deep ponds with low vegetation cover. The probability of metamorphosis was related to the same environmental cues, suggesting that boreal toads assess the fitness prospects of a breeding patch and adjust movement decisions accordingly (i.e. informed breeding dispersal). We demonstrated that stochastic variability in environmental conditions and habitat quality can underpin dispersal behaviour in amphibians. Our study highlighted the mechanistic linkages between habitat change, movement behaviour and prospects for reproductive performance, which is critical for understanding how wild animals respond to rapid environmental change.

Wyoming

Ecological feedbacks can reduce population-level efficacy of wildlife fertility control

1. Anthropogenic stress on natural systems, particularly the fragmentation of landscapes and the extirpation of predators from food webs, has intensified the need to regulate abundance of wildlife populations with management. Controlling population growth using fertility control has been considered for almost four decades, but nearly all research has focused on understanding effects of fertility control agents on individual animals. Questions about the efficacy of fertility control as a way to control populations remain largely unanswered. 2. Collateral consequences of contraception can produce unexpected changes in birth rates, survival, immigration and emigration that may reduce the effectiveness of regulating animal abundance. The magnitude and frequency of such effects vary with species-specific social and reproductive systems, as well as connectivity of populations. Developing models that incorporate static demographic parameters from populations not controlled by contraception may bias predictions of fertility control efficacy. 3. Many population-level studies demonstrate that changes in survival and immigration induced by fertility control can compensate for the reduction in births caused by contraception. The most successful cases of regulating populations using fertility control come from applications of contraceptives to small, closed populations of gregarious and easily accessed species. 4. Fertility control can result in artificial selection pressures on the population and may lead to long-term unintentional genetic consequences. The magnitude of such selection is dependent on individual heritability and behavioural traits, as well as environmental variation. 5. Synthesis and applications . Understanding species' life-history strategies, biology, behavioural ecology and ecological context is critical to developing realistic expectations of regulating populations using fertility control. Before time, effort and funding are invested in wildlife contraception, managers may need to consider the possibility that many species and populations can compensate for reduction in fecundity, and this could minimize any reduction in population growth rate.

Journal of Applied Ecology

Improving estimation of flight altitude in wildlife telemetry studies

Altitude measurements from wildlife tracking devices, combined with elevation data, are commonly used to estimate the flight altitude of volant animals. However, these data often include measurement error. Understanding this error may improve estimation of flight altitude and benefit applied ecology. There are a number of different approaches that have been used to address this measurement error. These include filtering based on GPS data, filtering based on behaviour of the study species, and use of state-space models to correct measurement error. The effectiveness of these approaches is highly variable. Recent studies have based inference of flight altitude on misunderstandings about avian natural history and technical or analytical tools. In this Commentary, we discuss these misunderstandings and suggest alternative strategies both to resolve some of these issues and to improve estimation of flight altitude. These strategies also can be applied to other measures derived from telemetry data. Synthesis and applications. Our Commentary is intended to clarify and improve upon some of the assumptions made when estimating flight altitude and, more broadly, when using GPS telemetry data. We also suggest best practices for identifying flight behaviour, addressing GPS error, and using flight altitudes to estimate collision risk with anthropogenic structures. Addressing the issues we describe would help improve estimates of flight altitude and advance understanding of the treatment of error in wildlife telemetry studies.

Journal of Applied Ecology

American eel personality and body length influence passage success in an experimental fishway

Millions of dams impair watershed connectivity across the globe and have severely affected migratory fish populations. Fishways offer upstream passage opportunities, but artificial selection may be imposed by these structures. Using juvenile American eel Anguilla rostrata as a model species, we consider whether individual differences in behaviour (i.e. personality) and fish size can predict passage success. We evaluated the expression of bold and exploratory behaviours using open field and emergence assays in the laboratory. Then we assessed the propensity for individuals to volitionally climb through an experimental fishway to understand if personality and fish size could predict climbing success. We demonstrate personality in juvenile eels, and swimming speed in the open field was negatively associated with climbing propensity. Slower swimmers were up to 60% more likely to use the passage device suggesting that more exploratory eels incurred greater passage success. For successful climbers, climbing time was negatively associated with fish length. Synthesis and applications . Our results suggest fish may segregate at barriers based on personality and size. Preventing a subset of individuals from accessing upstream habitat is likely to have negative consequences for fish populations and aquatic ecosystems. Selection may be alleviated by increasing passage opportunities, maximizing fishway attraction and avoiding inefficient passage solutions.

Journal of Applied Ecology