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At least 217 records · Page 12Linked to original sources
USGS2024

Crop type classification, trends, and patterns of central California agricultural fields from 2005 to 2020

California produces many key agricultural products in the United States. Current geospatial agricultural datasets are limited in mapping accuracy, spatial context, or observation period. This study uses machine learning and high-resolution imagery to produce a time series of crop maps to assess crop type trends and patterns across central California from 2005 to 2020. National Agriculture Imagery Program and Landsat imagery were used to classify nine crop types that are common in the study region: grain crops, field crops, rice, citrus and subtropical, deciduous fruit and nut, vineyard, berry and vegetable, pasture, and fallow/young perennial crop types. To create labeled data, we sampled 1253 fields and manually identified crop types for each examined year using high-resolution imagery and Landsat normalized difference vegetation index time series. We applied a random forest machine learning algorithm in Google Earth Engine. Results show that the mean overall classification accuracy of the nine-class map was 93.1%, with individual accuracies ranging from 99.3% (rice) to 89.5% (fallow/young perennial). Mann–Kendall trend tests showed significant ( p less than 0.05) declines in field crop and pasture area during the study period, while deciduous fruit and nut, citrus and subtropical, and fallow/young perennial crop types experienced significant increases. At an aggregate level, there was a general shift from annual crop types to perennial crop types. These data provide a 16-year time span of spatially explicit crop type classifications, trends, and patterns in central California that can be used to aid managers and decision makers for resource planning or hazard mitigation.

California↗
USGS2020

Assessing establishment and growth of agricultural plantings on reservoir mudflats

Winter drawdowns in flood control reservoirs create expansive mudflats that lack the vegetation typical of littoral zones, which reduces the amount of structure available for fish habitat. This study investigated the feasibility of establishing agricultural plantings as a management action to ameliorate mudflats by providing structural cover following reservoir refilling. We tested cool-season annual grasses and clovers applied in several mixed and monoculture treatments that were sown on the mudflats of Enid Reservoir, Mississippi, during the winter drawdown in three consecutive years. Soil samples were taken for analysis of pH and macronutrients prior to planting. Plantings were monitored until the following spring to evaluate effectiveness of establishment through ground coverage, height, and stem density sampling. Plots were assigned a seeding treatment of either grasses (ryegrass Lolium spp. or triticale x Triticosecale sp.), clovers (balansa clover Trifolium michelianum or berseem clover Trifolium alexandrinum ), or both (mixed plantings) or left as an unseeded control. Differences among plant treatments were assessed via repeated measures analysis of variance and differences among means evaluated with Tukey's honestly significant difference test. Soil productivity within the study area was poor all 3 years. Grasses germinated both when disked into the soil and when top sown, while clover only germinated when disked. Plots seeded with grasses performed better than control plots with respect to stem density, height, and ground coverage, while plots seeded with grass and clover mixtures performed better than control plots only with respect to height, and plots seeded with only clover did not perform significantly better than control plots. Results serve as an evaluation of the efficacy of agricultural plant establishment on the mudflats of a flood control reservoir, inform the direction of future research, and identify considerations regarding the application of agricultural plantings as a management tool to create fish habitat.

Mississippi↗
USGS2003

Use of radar remote sensing (RADARSAT) to map winter wetland habitat for shorebirds in an agricultural landscape

Many of today's agricultural landscapes once held vast amounts of wetland habitat for waterbirds and other wildlife. Successful restoration of these landscapes relies on access to accurate maps of the wetlands that remain. We used C-band (5.6-cm-wavelength), HH-polarized radar remote sensing (RADARSAT) at a 38?? incidence angle (8-m resolution) to map the distribution of winter shorebird (Charadriiformes) habitat on agricultural lands in the Willamette Valley of western Oregon. We acquired imagery on three dates (10 December 1999, 27 January 2000, and 15 March 2000) and simultaneously collected ground reference data to classify radar signatures and evaluate map accuracy of four habitat classes: (1) wet with ??? 50% vegetation (considered optimal shorebird habitat), (2) wet with > 50% vegetation, (3) dry with ??? 50% vegetation, and (4) dry with > 50% vegetation. Overall accuracy varied from 45 to 60% among the three images, but the accuracy of focal class 1 was greater, ranging from 72 to 80%. Class 4 coverage was stable and dominated maps (40% of mapped study area) for all three dates, while class 3 coverage decreased slightly throughout the study period. Among wet classes, class 1 was most abundant (30% coverage) in December and January, decreasing in March by 15%. Conversely, class 2 increased dramatically from January to March, likely due to transition from class 1 as vegetation grew. This approach was successful in detecting optimal habitat for shorebirds on agricultural lands. For modest classification schemes, radar remote sensing is a valuable option for wetland mapping in areas where cloud cover is persistent. ?? 2003 Springer-Verlag New York Inc.

Environmental Management↗
USGS2021

Riparian forest cover modulates phosphorus storage and nitrogen cycling in agricultural stream sediments

Watershed land cover affects in-stream water quality and sediment nutrient dynamics. The presence of natural land cover in the riparian zone can reduce the negative effects of agricultural land use on water quality; however, literature evaluating the effects of natural riparian land cover on stream sediment nutrient dynamics is scarce. The objective of this study was to assess if stream sediment phosphorus retention and nitrogen removal varies with riparian forest cover in agricultural watersheds. Stream sediment nutrient dynamics from 28 sites with mixed land cover were sampled three times during the growing season. Phosphorus dynamics and nitrification rates did not change considerably throughout the study period. Sediment total phosphorus concentrations and nitrification rates decreased as riparian forest cover increased likely due to a decline in fine, organic material. Denitrification rates were strongly correlated to surface water nitrate concentrations. Denitrification rate and denitrification enzyme activity decreased with an increase in forest cover during the first sampling period only. The first sampling period coincided with the greatest connectivity between the watershed and in-stream processing, indicating that riparian forest cover indirectly decreased denitrification rates by reducing the concentrations of dissolved nutrients entering the stream. This reduction in load may allow the sediment to maintain greater nitrogen removal efficiency, because bacteria are not saturated with nitrogen. Riparian forest cover also appeared to lessen the effect of agriculture in the watershed by decreasing the amount of fine material in the stream, resulting in reduced phosphorus storage in the stream sediment.

Wisconsin↗
USGS2002

Effects of topography on the transport of agricultural chemicals to groundwater in a sand-plain setting

Geochemical data were collected to investigate the effects of topography and focused recharge on the transport of agricultural chemicals to groundwater through sandy soils. The research was done at a topographically high (upland) site and a depressional (lowland) site within a corn field. Agricultural chemicals that move readily with water were most directly affected by focused recharge to the lowland site. Surface runoff of water to the lowland site was the primary cause for the generally greater flux of chloride, nitrate nitrogen, and sulfate compared with the upland site. Based on data from the unsaturated zone, for example, the average annual fluxes of these chemicals in 1992–1993 were 5.1, 3.4, and 1.7 times greater, respectively, at the lowland site. Study results indicate that consideration should be given to modifying site-specific management farming technology to account for varying recharge rates in different topographic settings. By reducing chemical application rates in topographic depressions, where focused recharge of chemicals occurs because of surface runoff, farmers could improve ground-water quality as well as reduce expenditures for agricultural chemicals.

Minnesota↗
USGS2017

Climate impacts on agricultural land use in the USA: the role of socio-economic scenarios

We examine the impacts of climate on net returns from crop and livestock production and the resulting impact on land-use change across the contiguous USA. We first estimate an econometric model to project effects of weather fluctuations on crop and livestock net returns and then use a semi-reduced form land-use share model to study agricultural land-use changes under future climate and socio-economic scenarios. Estimation results show that crop net returns are more sensitive to thermal and less sensitive to moisture variability than livestock net returns; other agricultural land uses substitute cropland use when 30-year averaged degree-days or precipitation are not beneficial for crop production. Under future climate and socio-economic scenarios, we project that crop and livestock net returns are both increasing, but with crop net returns increasing at a higher rate; cropland increases with declines of marginal and pastureland by the end of the twenty-first century. Projections also show that impacts of future climate on agricultural land uses are substantially different and a larger variation of land-use change is evident when socio-economic scenarios are incorporated into the climate impact analysis.

Climatic Change↗
USGS2010

Response of algal metrics to nutrients and physical factors and identification of nutrient thresholds in agricultural streams

Many streams within the United States are impaired due to nutrient enrichment, particularly in agricultural settings. The present study examines the response of benthic algal communities in agricultural and minimally disturbed sites from across the western United States to a suite of environmental factors, including nutrients, collected at multiple scales. The first objective was to identify the relative importance of nutrients, habitat and watershed features, and macroinvertebrate trophic structure to explain algal metrics derived from deposition and erosion habitats. The second objective was to determine if thresholds in total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) related to algal metrics could be identified and how these thresholds varied across metrics and habitats. Nutrient concentrations within the agricultural areas were elevated and greater than published threshold values. All algal metrics examined responded to nutrients as hypothesized. Although nutrients typically were the most important variables in explaining the variation in each of the algal metrics, environmental factors operating at multiple scales also were important. Calculated thresholds for TN or TP based on the algal metrics generated from samples collected from erosion and deposition habitats were not significantly different. Little variability in threshold values for each metric for TN and TP was observed. The consistency of the threshold values measured across multiple metrics and habitats suggest that the thresholds identified in this study are ecologically relevant. Additional work to characterize the relationship between algal metrics, physical and chemical features, and nuisance algal growth would be of benefit to the development of nutrient thresholds and criteria.

Environmental Monitoring and Assessment↗
USGS2016

Changing agricultural practices: Potential consequences to aquatic organisms

Agricultural practices pose threats to biotic diversity in freshwater systems with increasing use of glyphosate-based herbicides for weed control and animal waste for soil amendment becoming common in many regions. Over the past two decades, these particular agricultural trends have corresponded with marked declines in populations of fish and mussel species in the Upper Conasauga River watershed in Georgia/Tennessee, USA. To investigate the potential role of agriculture in the population declines, surface waters and sediments throughout the basin were tested for toxicity and analyzed for glyphosate, metals, nutrients, and steroid hormones. Assessments of chronic toxicity with Ceriodaphnia dubia and Hyalella azteca indicated that few water or sediment samples were harmful and metal concentrations were generally below impairment levels. Glyphosate was not observed in surface waters, although its primary degradation product, aminomethyl phosphonic acid (AMPA), was detected in 77% of the samples (mean = 509 μg/L, n = 99) and one or both compounds were measured in most sediment samples. Waterborne AMPA concentrations supported an inference that surfactants associated with glyphosate may be present at levels sufficient to affect early life stages of mussels. Nutrient enrichment of surface waters was widespread with nitrate (mean = 0.7 mg NO 3 -N/L, n = 179) and phosphorus (mean = 275 μg/L, n = 179) exceeding levels associated with eutrophication. Hormone concentrations in sediments were often above those shown to cause endocrine disruption in fish and appear to reflect the widespread application of poultry litter and manure. Observed species declines may be at least partially due to hormones, although excess nutrients and herbicide surfactants may also be implicated.

Environmental Monitoring and Assessment↗
USGS2013

Agricultural disturbance response models for invertebrate and algal metrics from streams at two spatial scales within the U.S.

As part of the USGS study of nutrient enrichment of streams in agricultural regions throughout the United States, about 30 sites within each of eight study areas were selected to capture a gradient of nutrient conditions. The objective was to develop watershed disturbance predictive models for macroinvertebrate and algal metrics at national and three regional landscape scales to obtain a better understanding of important explanatory variables. Explanatory variables in models were generated from landscape data, habitat, and chemistry. Instream nutrient concentration and variables assessing the amount of disturbance to the riparian zone (e.g., percent row crops or percent agriculture) were selected as most important explanatory variable in almost all boosted regression tree models regardless of landscape scale or assemblage. Frequently, TN and TP concentration and riparian agricultural land use variables showed a threshold type response at relatively low values to biotic metrics modeled. Some measure of habitat condition was also commonly selected in the final invertebrate models, though the variable(s) varied across regions. Results suggest national models tended to account for more general landscape/climate differences, while regional models incorporated both broad landscape scale and more specific local-scale variables.

Hydrobiologia↗
USGS2023

Association of excessive precipitation and agricultural land use with honey bee colony performance

Context: From landscape variables to weather, multiple environmental factors affect honey bees and other pollinators. Detailed honey bee colony assessments in a variety of landscape and weather conditions offer the opportunity to develop a mechanistic understanding of how landscape composition, configuration, and weather are associated with colony nutrition, demography, and productivity. Objectives: Our objective was to test if weather and landscape characteristics (e.g., agricultural versus forested land use) are associated with different honey bee colony outcomes (foraged nectar mass, foraged pollen mass, pupal population size, and adult population size change). Methods: We collected detailed colony measurements on over 450 honey bee colonies over four years across an agricultural-to-forested land use gradient in Michigan, USA. Results: We found that higher than normal precipitation in the preceding spring and fall was negatively correlated with colony size change and with foraged nectar mass, respectively. Sites surrounded by less agricultural land and more forested land also had fewer pupae by the end of summer. Conclusions: These inter-dependent colony metrics offer insights into environmental-plant-pollinator dynamics. Our finding that extreme weather events, associated with climate change, are negatively correlated with colony performance point to likely lagged effects of weather on pollinator floral resources. Landscapes managed with climate-resilient, temporally continuous floral resources are likely to support pollinators. Capturing extreme weather phenomena in field studies is a valuable way to investigate the associations between land use, climate change and biological systems. However, caution should be taken in overinterpreting observational studies, so further research is needed.

Landscape Ecology↗
USGS2009

Declining global per capita agricultural production and warming oceans threaten food security

Despite accelerating globalization, most people still eat food that is grown locally. Developing countries with weak purchasing power tend to import as little food as possible from global markets, suffering consumption deficits during times of high prices or production declines. Local agricultural production, therefore, is critical to both food security and economic development among the rural poor. The level of local agricultural production, in turn, will be determined by the amount and quality of arable land, the amount and quality of agricultural inputs (fertilizer, seeds, pesticides, etc.), as well as farm-related technology, practices and policies. This paper discusses several emerging threats to global and regional food security, including declining yield gains that are failing to keep up with population increases, and warming in the tropical Indian Ocean and its impact on rainfall. If yields continue to grow more slowly than per capita harvested area, parts of Africa, Asia and Central and Southern America will experience substantial declines in per capita cereal production. Global per capita cereal production will potentially decline by 14% between 2008 and 2030. Climate change is likely to further affect food production, particularly in regions that have very low yields due to lack of technology. Drought, caused by anthropogenic warming in the Indian and Pacific Oceans, may also reduce 21st century food availability in some countries by disrupting moisture transports and bringing down dry air over crop growing areas. The impacts of these circulation changes over Asia remain uncertain. For Africa, however, Indian Ocean warming appears to have already reduced rainfall during the main growing season along the eastern edge of tropical Africa, from southern Somalia to northern parts of the Republic of South Africa. Through a combination of quantitative modeling of food balances and an examination of climate change, this study presents an analysis of emerging threats to global food security.

Food Security↗
USGS2025

Modeling wetland resources for spring migratory waterbirds under different agricultural management scenarios in the Iowa portion of the Prairie Pothole Region, USA

Constructed water quality wetlands, designed to accept tile drainage and surface runoff, are a promising solution for reducing surface water nutrient loading from agricultural systems. In addition to their water quality benefits, these systems may also offset losses of migratory waterbird stopover sites resulting from historical and future agricultural drainage modernization. To assess this possibility, we developed spatially explicit habitat models informed with expert opinion to explore the: 1) potential of water quality wetlands to provide suitable stopover resources for waterbirds during spring migration; and 2) the extent these wetlands can offset likely losses of stopover resources due to drainage modernization. We focused our modeling on the Iowa portion of the Prairie Pothole Region of North America as it was a historically important area within this vital region for waterbirds, but it has experienced widespread subsurface drainage. Model results indicate that unmitigated drainage modernization is likely to have a large negative effect on spring migratory resources for dabbling ducks and shorebirds and minimal effect on diving ducks. Water quality wetland installations are likely to provide habitat for dabbling and diving ducks, but wetland installation is unlikely to completely offset habitat losses for dabbling ducks and shorebirds. Drainage modernization aside, our results indicate that water quality wetlands can address several environmental issues associated with agricultural expansion and intensification by improving water quality and providing wetland resources for waterbirds and other organisms. Field-scale research is needed to validate these results.

Iowa↗
USGS2026

Sediment response to stream restoration in an agricultural watershed

Despite widespread implementation of stream restoration there is limited research of its effectiveness in impaired agricultural settings. To quantify the effects of stream restoration on sediment load, we investigated erosion and deposition along 9 stream reach sites (4 restored, 4 unrestored, and 1 downstream) in Turtle Creek, Pennsylvania, United States - a representative agricultural subbasin of the Chesapeake Bay. These stream restoration projects had the goal of reducing sediment load primarily by installing log structures and regrading streambanks in order to stabilize streambanks and reconnect floodplains. Floodplain and streambank sediment fluxes were quantified over a 3-year period through repeated measurement of clay pads and pins and measurement of sediment bulk density. Uncrewed aerial imagery was collected at 3 of the sites, then processed using structure from motion (SfM) to create high-resolution digital elevation models. Terrain analysis enabled three-dimensional understanding of the generality of the specific field flux measurement locations to the larger stream reach. Restored sites on average had deposition on streambanks compared to streambank erosion along unrestored sites, and approximately two times greater floodplain deposition than unrestored sites. Overall, restored stream had an average seven-fold increase in the net balance (sum of streambank and floodplain) of sediment flux, a 81.2 kg/m/yr increase in retention, compared to unrestored stream. The measured larger streambed particle size distribution (D 50 ) in restored streams also suggests additional improvements to instream habitat quality. Terrain analysis confirmed that the field-based measurements were representative of the larger reach. These results indicate that stream restoration in agricultural watersheds using less-engineered designs can reduce sediment loading and improve stream habitat and health goals.

Pennsylvania↗
USGS2012

Complexity of human and ecosystem interactions in an agricultural landscape

The complexity of human interaction in the commercial agricultural landscape and the resulting impacts on the ecosystem services of water quality and quantity is largely ignored by the current agricultural paradigm that maximizes crop production over other ecosystem services. Three examples at different spatial scales (local, regional, and global) are presented where human and ecosystem interactions in a commercial agricultural landscape adversely affect water quality and quantity in unintended ways in the Delta of northwestern Mississippi. In the first example, little to no regulation of groundwater use for irrigation has caused declines in groundwater levels resulting in loss of baseflow to streams and threatening future water supply. In the second example, federal policy which subsidizes corn for biofuel production has encouraged many producers to switch from cotton to corn, which requires more nutrients and water, counter to national efforts to reduce nutrient loads to the Gulf of Mexico and exacerbating groundwater level declines. The third example is the wholesale adoption of a system for weed control that relies on a single chemical, initially providing many benefits and ultimately leading to the widespread occurrence of glyphosate and its degradates in Delta streams and necessitating higher application rates of glyphosate as well as the use of other herbicides due to increasing weed resistance. Although these examples are specific to the Mississippi Delta, analogous situations exist throughout the world and point to the need for change in how we grow our food, fuel, and fiber, and manage our soil and water resources.

Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri↗
USGS2020

Projected climate and land use changes drive plant community composition in agricultural wetlands

Playa wetlands in the Great Plains, USA support a wide variety of plant species not found elsewhere in this agriculturally-dominated region due to the ephemeral presence of standing water and hydric soils within playas. If longer dry periods occur due to climate change or if changes in surrounding land use alter sediment accumulation rates and water storage capacity in playas, plant communities could experience decreased diversity, with lasting effects on ecosystem services provided by playas in the Great Plains and at a continental-level in North America. We quantified potential changes in playa wetland plant community composition associated with predicted changes in precipitation and land use in the Great Plains through the end of the 21 st century. We conducted two six-month greenhouse experiments mimicking field conditions using intact mesocosms collected from playas in Nebraska and Texas. In the precipitation experiment, treatments derived from historical precipitation observations and three future moderate emissions (CMIP5 RCP4.5) downscaled climate projections were applied to mesocosms. For the land use experiment, treatments were simulated by nitrogen (N) applications to soil ranging from 0 to 100 mg-N L -1 with each precipitation event under historical rainfall patterns, representing increasing and decreasing area in agricultural use in playa watersheds. Plant communities tended to shift toward more native species under projected future climate conditions, but as N runoff increased, native species richness decreased. Agricultural land-use surrounding playas may have a greater effect on wetland plant communities than future alterations to hydrology based on climate change in the Great Plains; thus, efforts to reduce nutrient runoff into playas would likely mitigate loss in ecosystem function in the coming decades.

Nebraska, Texas↗
USGS2014

Evaluation of a model framework to estimate soil and soil organic carbon redistribution by water and tillage using 137 Cs in two U.S. Midwest agricultural fields

Cultivated lands in the U.S. Midwest have been affected by soil erosion, causing soil organic carbon (SOC) redistribution in the landscape and other environmental and agricultural problems. The importance of SOC redistribution on soil productivity and crop yield, however, is still uncertain. In this study, we used a model framework, which includes the Unit Stream Power-based Erosion Deposition (USPED) and the Tillage Erosion Prediction (TEP) models, to understand the soil and SOC redistribution caused by water and tillage erosion in two agricultural fields in the U.S. Midwest. This model framework was evaluated for different digital elevation model (DEM) spatial resolutions (10-m, 24-m, 30-m, and 56-m) and topographic exponents ( m = 1.0–1.6 and n = 1.0–1.3) using soil redistribution rates from 137 Cs measurements. The results showed that the aggregated 24-m DEM, m = 1.4 and n = 1.0 for rill erosion, and m = 1.0 and n = 1.0 for sheet erosion, provided the best fit with the observation data at both sites. Moreover, estimated average SOC redistributions were 1.3 ± 9.8 g C m − 2 yr − 1 in field site 1 and 3.6 ± 14.3 g C m − 2 yr − 1 in field site 2. Spatial distribution patterns showed SOC loss (negative values) in the eroded areas and SOC gain (positive value) in the deposition areas. This study demonstrated the importance of the spatial resolution and the topographic exponents to estimate and map soil redistribution and the SOC dynamics throughout the landscape, helping to identify places where erosion and deposition from water and tillage are occurring at high rates. Additional research is needed to improve the application of the model framework for use in local and regional studies where rainfall erosivity and cover management factors vary. Therefore, using this model framework can help to improve the information about the spatial distribution of soil erosion across agricultural landscapes and to gain a better understanding of SOC dynamics within eroding and previously eroded fields.

Iowa↗
USGS2023

Water-soluble organic carbon release from mineral soils and sediments in an irrigated agricultural system

Water interactions with soil and vegetation are greatly altered in agricultural watersheds compared to natural landscapes, which impacts sources and fates of organic carbon (OC). While mineral soil horizons in natural ecosystems primarily act as filters for dissolved organic carbon (DOC) leached from organic surface horizons, tilled soils largely lack an organic horizon and their mineral horizons therefore act as a source for both DOC and sediment to surface waters. Irrigated watersheds highlight this difference, as DOC and total suspended sediment (TSS) concentrations simultaneously increase during the low-discharge irrigation season, suggesting that sediment-associated OC may constitute a significant source of DOC. While water-soluble OC (WSOC) from sediments and soils has been found to be compositionally similar to stream DOC, these contributions remain poorly quantified in agricultural streams. To address this, we conducted abiotic solubilization experiments using sediments (suspended and bed) and soils from an irrigated agricultural watershed in northern California, USA. Sediments (R 2 > 0.99) and soils (0.74 < R 2 < 0.89) displayed linear solubilization behaviors over the range of concentrations tested. Suspended sediment from the irrigation season exhibited the largest solubilization efficiency (10.9 ± 1.6% TOC sediment solubilized) and potential (1.79 ± 0.26 mg WSOC g −1 dry sediment), followed by suspended sediment from a winter storm, then bed sediment and soils. Successive solubilization experiments increased the total release of WSOC by ∼50%, but most (88–97%) of the solid-phase OC remained insoluble in water. Using these solubilization potential estimates and measured TSS concentrations, we estimated that WSOC from suspended sediment in streams represented 4–7% of the annual DOC export from the watershed. However, field sediment export is much higher than what is represented by suspended sediment in the water column, therefore field-scale contributions from sediments could be much higher than estimated.

California↗
USGS2023

Agricultural conservation practices could help offset climate change impacts on cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms in Lake Erie

Harmful algal blooms (HABs) are a recurring problem in many temperate large lake and coastal marine ecosystems, caused mainly by anthropogenic eutrophication. Implementation of agricultural conservation practices (ACPs) offers a means to reduce non-point source nutrient runoff and mitigate HABs. However, the effectiveness of ACPs in a changing climate remains uncertain. We used an integrated biophysical modeling approach to predict how Lake Erie cyanobacterial HAB severity (bloom biomass) may change under several climate and ACP implementation scenarios, using western Lake Erie and its largely agricultural watershed as our study system. An ensemble of general circulation model projections was used to drive spatially explicit land use and hydrology models of the Maumee River watershed, the output of which informed a predictive model of Lake Erie HAB severity. Results show that, in the absence of changes in ACPs, the frequency of severe HABs is projected to increase during coming decades, owing to increased inputs of nutrients from the watershed. These anticipated increases are due to increased total precipitation and more frequent higher-magnitude rainfall events. While further implementation of ACPs appears capable of reducing severe HAB events, widespread implementation would be necessary to reduce HAB severity below current management targets. This study highlights how continued climate change will only exacerbate the need for land management practices that can reduce nutrient runoff in agriculturally dominated ecosystems, such as Lake Erie. It also shows how interdisciplinary, biophysical modeling approaches can help identify strategies to mitigate HABs in the face of anthropogenic stressors.

Lake Erie↗