Search USGS⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search USGS

Results for “Theoretical Ecology”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 199 records · Page 11Linked to original sources
USGS2017

The greenscape shapes surfing of resource waves in a large migratory herbivore

The Green Wave Hypothesis posits that herbivore migration manifests in response to waves of spring green-up (i.e. green-wave surfing). Nonetheless, empirical support for the Green Wave Hypothesis is mixed, and a framework for understanding variation in surfing is lacking. In a population of migratory mule deer ( Odocoileus hemionus ), 31% surfed plant phenology in spring as well as a theoretically perfect surfer, and 98% surfed better than random. Green-wave surfing varied among individuals and was unrelated to age or energetic state. Instead, the greenscape, which we define as the order, rate and duration of green-up along migratory routes, was the primary factor influencing surfing. Our results indicate that migratory routes are more than a link between seasonal ranges, and they provide an important, but often overlooked, foraging habitat. In addition, the spatiotemporal configuration of forage resources that propagate along migratory routes shape animal movement and presumably, energy gains during migration.

Wyoming↗
USGS2010

Biocomplexity in mangrove ecosystems

Mangroves are an ecological assemblage of trees and shrubs adapted to grow in intertidal environments along tropical coasts. Despite repeated demonstration of their economic and societal value, more than 50% of the world's mangroves have been destroyed, 35% in the past two decades to aquaculture and coastal development, altered hydrology, sea-level rise, and nutrient overenrichment. Variations in the structure and function of mangrove ecosystems have generally been described solely on the basis of a hierarchical classification of the physical characteristics of the intertidal environment, including climate, geomorphology, topography, and hydrology. Here, we use the concept of emergent properties at multiple levels within a hierarchical framework to review how the interplay between specialized adaptations and extreme trait plasticity that characterizes mangroves and intertidal environments gives rise to the biocomplexity that distinguishes mangrove ecosystems. The traits that allow mangroves to tolerate variable salinity, flooding, and nutrient availability influence ecosystem processes and ultimately the services they provide. We conclude that an integrated research strategy using emergent properties in empirical and theoretical studies provides a holistic approach for understanding and managing mangrove ecosystems.

Annual Review of Marine Science↗
USGS2022

Diet analysis using generalized linear models derived from foraging processes using R package mvtweedie

Diet analysis integrates a wide variety of visual, chemical, and biological identification of prey. Samples are often treated as compositional data, where each prey is analyzed as a continuous percentage of the total. However, analyzing compositional data results in analytical challenges, for example, highly parameterized models or prior transformation of data. Here, we present a novel approximation involving a Tweedie generalized linear model (GLM). We first review how this approximation emerges from considering predator foraging as a thinned and marked point process (with marks representing prey species and individual prey size). This derivation can motivate future theoretical and applied developments. We then provide a practical tutorial for the Tweedie GLM using new package mvtweedie that extends capabilities of widely used packages in R ( mgcv and ggplot2 ) by transforming output to calculate prey compositions. We demonstrate this approach and software using two examples. Tufted Puffins ( Fratercula cirrhata ) provisioning their chicks on a colony in the northern Gulf of Alaska show decadal prey switching among sand lance and prowfish (1980–2000) and then Pacific herring and capelin (2000–2020), while wolves ( Canis lupus ligoni ) in southeast Alaska forage on mountain goats and marmots in northern uplands and marine mammals in seaward island coastlines.

Ecology↗
USGS2019

Understanding reproductive allometry in turtles: A slippery “slope”

Measures of reproductive output in turtles are generally positively correlated with female body size. However, a full understanding of reproductive allometry in turtles requires logarithmic transformation of reproductive and body size variables prior to regression analyses. This allows for slope comparisons with expected linear or cubic relationships for linear to linear and linear to volumetric variables, respectively. We compiled scaling data using this approach from published and unpublished turtle studies (46 populations of 25 species from eight families) to quantify patterns among taxa. Our results suggest that for log–log comparisons of clutch size, egg width, egg mass, clutch mass, and pelvic aperture width to shell length, all scale hypoallometrically despite theoretical predictions of isometry. Clutch size generally scaled at ~1.7 to 2.0 (compared to an isometric expectation of 3.0), egg width at ~0.5 (compared to an expectation of 1.0), egg mass at ~1.1 to 1.3 (3.0), clutch mass at ~2.5 to 2.8 (3.0), and pelvic aperture width at 0.8–0.9 (1.0). We also found preliminary evidence that scaling may differ across years and clutches even in the same population, as well as across populations of the same species. Future investigators should aspire to collect data on all these reproductive parameters and to report log–log allometric analyses to test our preliminary conclusions regarding reproductive allometry in turtles.

Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2021

N supply mediates the radiative balance of N2O emissions and CO2 sequestration driven by N-fixing vs. non-fixing trees

Forests are a significant CO 2 sink. However, CO 2 sequestration in forests is radiatively offset by emissions of nitrous oxide (N 2 O), a potent greenhouse gas, from forest soils. Reforestation, an important strategy for mitigating climate change, has focused on maximizing CO 2 sequestration in plant biomass without integrating N 2 O emissions from soils. Although nitrogen (N)-fixing trees are often recommended for reforestation because of their rapid growth on N-poor soil, they can stimulate significant N 2 O emissions from soils. Here, we first used a field experiment to show that a N-fixing tree ( Robinia pseudoacacia ) initially mitigated climate change more than a non-fixing tree ( Betula nigra ). We then used our field data to parameterize a theoretical model to investigate these effects over time. Under lower N supply, N-fixers continued to mitigate climate change more than non-fixers by overcoming N limitation of plant growth. However, under higher N supply, N-fixers ultimately mitigated climate change less than non-fixers by enriching soil N and stimulating N 2 O emissions from soils. These results have implications for reforestation, suggesting that N-fixing trees are more effective at mitigating climate change at lower N supply, whereas non-fixing trees are more effective at mitigating climate change at higher N supply.

New York↗
USGS2002

Ecological and evolutionary conditions for fruit abortion to regulate pollinating seed-eaters and increase plant production

Coevolved mutualisms, such as those between senita cacti, yuccas, and their respective obligate pollinators, benefit both species involved in the interaction. However, in these pollination mutualisms the pollinator's larvae impose a cost on plants through consumption of developing seeds and fruit. The effects of pollinators on benefits and costs are expected to vary with the abundance of pollinators, because large population sizes result in more eggs and larval seed-eaters. Here, we develop the hypothesis that fruit abortion, which is common in yucca, senita, and plants in general, could in some cases have the function of limiting pollinator abundance and, thereby, increasing fruit production. Using a general steady-state model of fruit production and pollinator dynamics, we demonstrate that plants involved in pollinating seed-eater mutualisms can increase their fecundity by randomly aborting fruit. We show that the ecological conditions under which fruit abortion can improve plants fecundity are not unusual. They are best met when the plant is long-lived, the population dynamics of the pollinator are much faster than those of the plant, the loss of one fruit via abortion kills a larva that would have the expectation of destroying more than one fruit through its future egg laying as an adult moth, and the effects of fruit abortion on pollinator abundance are spatially localized. We then use the approach of adaptive dynamics to find conditions under which a fruit abortion strategy based on regulating the pollinator population could feasibly evolve in this type of plant–pollinator interaction.

Theoretical Population Biology↗
USGS2014

Scale-dependent feedbacks between patch size and plant reproduction in desert grassland

Theoretical models suggest that scale-dependent feedbacks between plant reproductive success and plant patch size govern transitions from highly to sparsely vegetated states in drylands, yet there is scant empirical evidence for these mechanisms. Scale-dependent feedback models suggest that an optimal patch size exists for growth and reproduction of plants and that a threshold patch organization exists below which positive feedbacks between vegetation and resources can break down, leading to critical transitions. We examined the relationship between patch size and plant reproduction using an experiment in a Chihuahuan Desert grassland. We tested the hypothesis that reproductive effort and success of a dominant grass ( Bouteloua eriopoda ) would vary predictably with patch size. We found that focal plants in medium-sized patches featured higher rates of grass reproductive success than when plants occupied either large patch interiors or small patches. These patterns support the existence of scale-dependent feedbacks in Chihuahuan Desert grasslands and indicate an optimal patch size for reproductive effort and success in B. eriopoda . We discuss the implications of these results for detecting ecological thresholds in desert grasslands.

New Mexico↗
USGS2000

Microsatellites: Evolutionary and methodological background and empirical applications at individual, population, and phylogenetic levels

The recent proliferation and greater accessibility of molecular genetic markers has led to a growing appreciation of the ecological and evolutionary inferences that can be drawn from molecular characterizations of individuals and populations (Burke et al. 1992, Avise 1994). Different techniques have the ability to target DNA sequences which have different patterns of inheritance, different modes and rates of evolution and, concomitantly, different levels of variation. In the quest for 'the right marker for the right job', microsatellites have been widely embraced as the marker of choice for many empirical genetic studies. The proliferation of microsatellite loci for various species and the voluminous literature compiled in very few years associated with their evolution and use in various research applications, exemplifies their growing importance as a research tool in the biological sciences. The ability to define allelic states based on variation at the nucleotide level has afforded unparalleled opportunities to document the actual mutational process and rates of evolution at individual microsatellite loci. The scrutiny to which these loci have been subjected has resulted in data that raise issues pertaining to assumptions formerly stated, but largely untestable for other marker classes. Indeed this is an active arena for theoretical and empirical work. Given the extensive and ever-increasing literature on various statistical methodologies and cautionary notes regarding the uses of microsatellites, some consideration should be given to the unique characteristics of these loci when determining how and under what conditions they can be employed.

Book chapter↗
USGS2018

Patch and landscape responses of bird abundance to fragmentation in agroecosystems of east-central Argentina

Forest fragmentation in agroecosystems is linked to declines of avian species worldwide. Agriculture has greatly reduced native forest cover in east-central Argentina. Assessing the influence of fragmentation on forest bird populations is vital to inform reliable conservation and management strategies for the Espinal region of Argentina. We determined the relationships of vegetation structure within native forest patches, size and shape of these patches (patch scale), composition and spatial configuration (at landscape scale) to relative abundance of 17 forest bird species during austral fall-winter and spring-summer seasons. Birds were sampled from 2007 – 2009 in 45 forest patches within three landscape mosaics (30x30 km) representing a gradient of native forest fragmentation in east-central Argentina. We used an information-theoretic approach and approximated model inference to examine the effect of predictor environmental variables at two spatial scales on patterns of forest bird abundance. Density of trees within forest patches was the main predictor of bird abundance at the patch scale. Amount of forest and spatial configuration were also important. The abundance of several bird species was greater in patches with high density of trees and landscapes characterized by more forest cover and larger patches in close proximity. We found two main avian response patterns to forest fragmentation and patch characteristics. This information contributes reliable knowledge for the design of conservation measures of agricultural landscapes in the Espinal region of Argentina.

Avian Conservation and Ecology↗
USGS2016

Ecological requirements for pallid sturgeon reproduction and recruitment in the Missouri River—A synthesis of science, 2005 to 2012

This report is intended to synthesize the state of the scientific understanding of pallid sturgeon ecological requirements to provide recommendations for future science directions and context for Missouri River restoration and management decisions. Recruitment of pallid sturgeon has been low to non-existent throughout its range. Emerging understanding of the genetic structure of pallid sturgeon populations sets a broad framework for species and river management decisions, including decisions about managing the future genetic diversity of the species, but also decisions about where and what type of river restoration actions will be effective for subpopulations of this highly migratory species. Adult pallid sturgeon may migrate hundreds of kilometers (km) to spawn and their progeny may disperse even greater distances downstream as drifting free embryos. As a result of their complex life history pallid sturgeon naturally exploit a wide range of habitats during their life cycles. The construction of dams and reservoirs has fragmented habitats and may have shifted Missouri River subpopulations downstream. Research has not identified one primary biological or ecological constraint that appears to limit populations of the pallid sturgeon. With the present (2013) state of knowledge many life stages and life-stage transitions cannot be ruled out as contributing to recruitment failure. Biological opinions in 2000 (and amended in 2003) presented the dominant hypotheses for recruitment failure that existed at that time. Emphasis was on the role of the flow regime, specifically spring flow pulses (“spring rises”), to condition spawning substrate and cue reproductive aggregations and migrations, and on low flows and additional slow, shallow-water area to serve as rearing habitat for age-0 to juvenile pallid sturgeon. Studies on spawning habitat dynamics have documented that habitat patches selected for spawning by fish in the Lower Missouri River (Missouri River downstream from Gavins Point Dam to the confluence with the Mississippi River) are dominantly on outside, revetted bends in the deepest, fastest, and most turbulent water. Studies in more natural habitat on the Yellowstone River have documented spawning in convergent flow in the middle of the channel on discrete patches of gravel within a sand-dominated channel, an arrangement that may be more effective in attracting aggregations of reproductive fish compared to the nearly continuous revetment on the Lower Missouri River. Pallid sturgeon spawn in the spring and early summer during periods of increasing day length. Water temperature consistently exerts a threshold effect for spawning at 16–18 °C. In addition, the role of water temperature is indicated by pauses and reversals in upstream migrations that have been associated with cold weather fronts that create a transient decrease in water temperature. From 2005 to 2012 on the Lower Missouri River, no obvious relations between flow pulses and fish movements and spawning behaviors have been apparent. However, pallid sturgeon tracking at the Upper Missouri–Yellowstone confluence indicates that in most years, most telemetered pallid sturgeon migrate out of the Missouri River and into the Yellowstone River in the June–July timeframe in association with the spring pulse. This pattern was disrupted in 2011 when a high flow pulse with warm temperatures and high turbidity emanated from the Milk River, followed by record releases from Fort Peck Dam, and 36–39 percent of the telemetered population migrated up the Upper Missouri. This result supports the hypothesis that sufficiently large flow pulses may trigger migration and aggregation but it is not clear that functional pulses are within reservoir management authorities. Notably, a pallid sturgeon free embryo was captured on the Upper Missouri River in 2011 and another single, genetically confirmed embryo was captured on the Yellowstone River in 2012. Research on free-embryo drift has indicated the potential for hundreds of miles of downstream dispersal. Lack of distance to accommodate the extended downstream dispersal period of free embryos on the Upper Missouri and Yellowstone Rivers is the predominant hypothesis for recruitment failure in the upper basin. Long drift distances in the Lower Missouri River may be responsible for shifting Lower Missouri River sub-populations further into the Middle Mississippi River. Physical understanding of drift processes indicates that mean velocities could be slowed through decreased discharges or increased channel hydraulic radius (width and topographic diversity) to reduce free-embryo dispersal distances. In addition, the probability that free embryos are transported into and retained in channel-margin habitats is theoretically amenable to channel re-engineering that would increase cross-channel secondary currents in bends or channel expansions. Considerable uncertainty persists, however, about whether extended drift of Lower Missouri River larvae is responsible for recruitment failure. If drift distance is limiting, it is important to discern whether it would be advisable to retain larvae within the Missouri River, and where along the river restoration projects should be placed to optimize survival and growth of age-0 and juvenile sturgeon. Longitudinal differences in female pallid sturgeon fecundity lend support to the hypothesis that recruitment failure may be due, in part, to fish having insufficient nutrition to produce the numbers of gametes needed for the population to grow, perhaps because of simultaneous declines in prey-fish populations and their habitats. Establishing a chain of causality from habitat decline, to prey-fish populations, to sturgeon diets, to sturgeon fecundity, and to pallid sturgeon population growth presents a considerable scientific challenge. In addition to the dominant hypotheses relating pallid sturgeon populations to changes in flow regime and channel morphology, other factors have been identified that might be sources of stress and contribute to recruitment failure. Among these are water quality and contaminants. Ambient water-quality monitoring on the Missouri River has demonstrated summer episodes when dissolved oxygen dips below 5 milligrams per liter, a threshold that may be stressful especially to age-0 and juvenile sturgeon. Documented cases of intersex in shovelnose and pallid sturgeon indicate that agricultural and municipal sources of endocrine disrupting chemicals also may have a role in pallid sturgeon recruitment failure. Scientific understanding of the ecological requirements of pallid sturgeon has increased almost exponentially in the last two decades, and efforts are now turning from understanding fundamental biology of the species to quantifying how population dynamics relate to potential management actions. Progress in developing the science needed to inform management actions on the Missouri River may benefit from continuation of monitoring of reproductive cycles, reproductive movements, growth, and survival of telemetry tagged adults, increased emphasis on focused, complementary field and laboratory studies of factors influencing early life history, implementation of studies to resolve the role of food limitations in growth, survival, and reproductive condition, and implementation of studies designed specifically to parameterize models linking management to populations.

Missouri River↗
USGS2003

Importance of the predator's ecological neighborhood in modeling predation on migrating prey

Most mathematical descriptions of predator-prey interactions fail to take into account the spatio-temporal structures of the populations, which can lead to errors or misinterpretations. For example, a compact pulse of prey migrating through a field of quasi-stationary predators may not be well described by standard predator-prey models, because the predators and prey are unlikely to be well mixed; that is, the prey may be exposed to only a fraction of the predator population at a time. This underscores the importance of properly accounting for the ecological neighborhood, or effective feeding range, of predators in models. We illustrate this situation with a series of models of salmon smolts migrating through a reservoir arrayed with predators. The reservoir is divided into a number of longitudinal compartments or spatial cells, the length of each cell representing the upstream-downstream range over which predators can forage. In this series of models a 100-km-long reservoir is divided, successively into 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 200, and 400 cells, with respective cell lengths of 50, 20, 10, 4, 2, 1, 0.5, and 0.25 km. We used a detailed individual-based simulation model at first, but to ensure robustness of results we supplemented this with a simple analytic model. Both models showed sharp differences in the predicted mortality to a compact pulse of smolt prey moving through the reservoir, depending on the number of spatial cells in the model. In particular, models with fewer than about 10 cells vastly overpredicted the amount of mortality due to predators with activity ranges of not more than a few kilometers. These results corroborate recent theoretical and simulation studies on the importance of spatial scale and behavior in modeling predator-prey dynamics.

Oikos↗
USGS2014

Role of large- and fine-scale variables in predicting catch rates of larval Pacific lamprey in the Willamette Basin, Oregon

Pacific lamprey Entosphenus tridentatus is an anadromous fish native to the Pacific Northwest of the USA. That has declined substantially over the last 40 years. Effective conservation of this species will require an understanding of the habitat requirements for each life history stage. Because its life cycle contains extended freshwater rearing (3–8 years), the larval stage may be a critical factor limiting abundance of Pacific lamprey. The objective of our study was to estimate the influence of barriers and habitat characteristics on the catch-per-unit-effort (CPUE) of larval Pacific lamprey in the Willamette River Basin, Oregon, USA. We sampled lampreys at multiple locations in wadeable streams throughout the basin in 2011–13 and used an information theoretic approach to examine the relative influence of fine- and large-scale predictors of CPUE. Pacific lamprey was observed across the basin, but its relative abundance appeared to be limited by the presence of natural and artificial barriers in some sub-basins. Lower velocity habitats such as off-channel areas and pools contained higher densities of larval lamprey; mean Pacific lamprey CPUE in off-channel habitats was 4 and 32 times greater than in pools and riffles respectively. Restoration and conservation strategies that improve fish passage, enhance natural hydrologic and depositional processes and increase habitat heterogeneity will likely benefit larval Pacific lamprey.

Oregon↗
USGS2010

Propagule pressure and stream characteristics influence introgression: Cutthroat and rainbow trout in British Columbia

Hybridization and introgression between introduced and native salmonids threaten the continued persistence of many inland cutthroat trout species. Environmental models have been developed to predict the spread of introgression, but few studies have assessed the role of propagule pressure. We used an extensive set of fish stocking records and geographic information system (GIS) data to produce a spatially explicit index of potential propagule pressure exerted by introduced rainbow trout in the Upper Kootenay River, British Columbia, Canada. We then used logistic regression and the information-theoretic approach to test the ability of a set of environmental and spatial variables to predict the level of introgression between native westslope cutthroat trout and introduced rainbow trout. Introgression was assessed using between four and seven co-dominant, diagnostic nuclear markers at 45 sites in 31 different streams. The best model for predicting introgression included our GIS propagule pressure index and an environmental variable that accounted for the biogeoclimatic zone of the site (r 2 = 0.62). This model was 1.4 times more likely to explain introgression than the next-best model, which consisted of only the propagule pressure index variable. We created a composite model based on the model-averaged results of the seven top models that included environmental, spatial, and propagule pressure variables. The propagule pressure index had the highest importance weight (0.995) of all variables tested and was negatively related to sites with no introgression. This study used an index of propagule pressure and demonstrated that propagule pressure had the greatest influence on the level of introgression between a native and introduced trout in a human-induced hybrid zone. ?? 2010 by the Ecological Society of America.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2017

Multinomial N-mixture models improve the applicability of electrofishing for developing population estimates of stream-dwelling Smallmouth Bass

Failure to account for variable detection across survey conditions constrains progressive stream ecology and can lead to erroneous stream fish management and conservation decisions. In addition to variable detection’s confounding long-term stream fish population trends, reliable abundance estimates across a wide range of survey conditions are fundamental to establishing species–environment relationships. Despite major advancements in accounting for variable detection when surveying animal populations, these approaches remain largely ignored by stream fish scientists, and CPUE remains the most common metric used by researchers and managers. One notable advancement for addressing the challenges of variable detection is the multinomial N -mixture model. Multinomial N -mixture models use a flexible hierarchical framework to model the detection process across sites as a function of covariates; they also accommodate common fisheries survey methods, such as removal and capture–recapture. Effective monitoring of stream-dwelling Smallmouth Bass Micropterus dolomieu populations has long been challenging; therefore, our objective was to examine the use of multinomial N -mixture models to improve the applicability of electrofishing for estimating absolute abundance. We sampled Smallmouth Bass populations by using tow-barge electrofishing across a range of environmental conditions in streams of the Ozark Highlands ecoregion. Using an information-theoretic approach, we identified effort, water clarity, wetted channel width, and water depth as covariates that were related to variable Smallmouth Bass electrofishing detection. Smallmouth Bass abundance estimates derived from our top model consistently agreed with baseline estimates obtained via snorkel surveys. Additionally, confidence intervals from the multinomial N -mixture models were consistently more precise than those of unbiased Petersen capture–recapture estimates due to the dependency among data sets in the hierarchical framework. We demonstrate the application of this contemporary population estimation method to address a longstanding stream fish management issue. We also detail the advantages and trade-offs of hierarchical population estimation methods relative to CPUE and estimation methods that model each site separately.

Missouri, Oklahoma↗
USGS2020

Assessing population-level consequences of anthropogenic stressors for terrestrial wildlife

Human activity influences wildlife. However, the ecological and conservation significances of these influences are difficult to predict and depend on their population‐level consequences. This difficulty arises partly because of information gaps, and partly because the data on stressors are usually collected in a count‐based manner (e.g., number of dead animals) that is difficult to translate into rate‐based estimates important to infer population‐level consequences (e.g., changes in mortality or population growth rates). However, ongoing methodological developments can provide information to make this transition. Here, we synthesize tools from multiple fields of study to propose an overarching, spatially explicit framework to assess population‐level consequences of anthropogenic stressors on terrestrial wildlife. A key component of this process is using ecological information from affected animals to upscale from count‐based field data on individuals to rate‐based demographic inference. The five steps to this framework are (1) framing the problem to identify species, populations, and assessment parameters; (2) field‐based measurement of the effect of the stressor on individuals; (3) characterizing the location and size of the populations of interest; (4) demographic modeling for those populations; and (5) assessing the significance of stressor‐induced changes in demographic rates. The tools required for each of these steps are well developed, and some have been used in conjunction with each other, but the entire group has not previously been unified together as we do in this framework. We detail these steps and then illustrate their application for two species affected by different anthropogenic stressors. In our examples, we use stable hydrogen isotope data to infer a catchment area describing the geographic origins of affected individuals, as the basis to estimate population size for that area. These examples reveal unexpectedly greater potential risks from stressors for the more common and widely distributed species. This work illustrates key strengths of the framework but also important areas for subsequent theoretical and technical development to make it still more broadly applicable.

Ecosphere↗
USGS2017

A Bayesian method for assessing multiscalespecies-habitat relationships

Context Scientists face several theoretical and methodological challenges in appropriately describing fundamental wildlife-habitat relationships in models. The spatial scales of habitat relationships are often unknown, and are expected to follow a multi-scale hierarchy. Typical frequentist or information theoretic approaches often suffer under collinearity in multi-scale studies, fail to converge when models are complex or represent an intractable computational burden when candidate model sets are large. Objectives Our objective was to implement an automated, Bayesian method for inference on the spatial scales of habitat variables that best predict animal abundance. Methods We introduce Bayesian latent indicator scale selection (BLISS), a Bayesian method to select spatial scales of predictors using latent scale indicator variables that are estimated with reversible-jump Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling. BLISS does not suffer from collinearity, and substantially reduces computation time of studies. We present a simulation study to validate our method and apply our method to a case-study of land cover predictors for ring-necked pheasant (Phasianus colchicus) abundance in Nebraska, USA. Results Our method returns accurate descriptions of the explanatory power of multiple spatial scales, and unbiased and precise parameter estimates under commonly encountered data limitations including spatial scale autocorrelation, effect size, and sample size. BLISS outperforms commonly used model selection methods including stepwise and AIC, and reduces runtime by 90%. Conclusions Given the pervasiveness of scale-dependency in ecology, and the implications of mismatches between the scales of analyses and ecological processes, identifying the spatial scales over which species are integrating habitat information is an important step in understanding species-habitat relationships. BLISS is a widely applicable method for identifying important spatial scales, propagating scale uncertainty, and testing hypotheses of scaling relationships.

Nebraska↗
USGS2005

Assessing spatial coupling in complex population dynamics using mutual prediction and continuity statistics

A number of important questions in ecology involve the possibility of interactions or ?coupling? among potential components of ecological systems. The basic question of whether two components are coupled (exhibit dynamical interdependence) is relevant to investigations of movement of animals over space, population regulation, food webs and trophic interactions, and is also useful in the design of monitoring programs. For example, in spatially extended systems, coupling among populations in different locations implies the existence of redundant information in the system and the possibility of exploiting this redundancy in the development of spatial sampling designs. One approach to the identification of coupling involves study of the purported mechanisms linking system components. Another approach is based on time series of two potential components of the same system and, in previous ecological work, has relied on linear cross-correlation analysis. Here we present two different attractor-based approaches, continuity and mutual prediction, for determining the degree to which two population time series (e.g., at different spatial locations) are coupled. Both approaches are demonstrated on a one-dimensional predator?prey model system exhibiting complex dynamics. Of particular interest is the spatial asymmetry introduced into the model as linearly declining resource for the prey over the domain of the spatial coordinate. Results from these approaches are then compared to the more standard cross-correlation analysis. In contrast to cross-correlation, both continuity and mutual prediction are clearly able to discern the asymmetry in the flow of information through this system.

Theoretical Population Biology↗
USGS2007

Competitive release and facilitation of drug-resistant parasites after therapeutic chemotherapy in a rodent malaria model

Malaria infections frequently consist of mixtures of drug-resistant and drug-sensitive parasites. If crowding occurs, where clonal population densities are suppressed by the presence of coinfecting clones, removal of susceptible clones by drug treatment could allow resistant clones to expand into the newly vacated niche space within a host. Theoretical models show that, if such competitive release occurs, it can be a potent contributor to the strength of selection, greatly accelerating the rate at which resistance spreads in a population. A variety of correlational field data suggest that competitive release could occur in human malaria populations, but direct evidence cannot be ethically obtained from human infections. Here we show competitive release after pyrimethamine curative chemotherapy of acute infections of the rodent malaria Plasmodium chabaudi in laboratory mice. The expansion of resistant parasite numbers after treatment resulted in enhanced transmission-stage densities. After the elimination or near-elimination of sensitive parasites, the number of resistant parasites increased beyond that achieved when a competitor had never been present. Thus, a substantial competitive release occurred, markedly elevating the fitness advantages of drug resistance above those arising from survival alone. This finding may explain the rapid spread of drug resistance and the subsequently brief useful lifespans of some antimalarial drugs. In a second experiment, where subcurative chemotherapy was administered, the resistant clone was only partly released from competitive suppression and experienced a restriction in the size of its expansion after treatment. This finding raises the prospect of harnessing in-host ecology to slow the spread of drug resistance. ?? 2007 by The National Academy of Sciences of the USA.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of↗