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At least 199 records · Page 11Linked to original sources

Soil genesis on the island of Bermuda in the Quaternary: the importance of African dust transport and deposition

The origin of terra rossa, red or reddish-brown, clay-rich soils overlying high-purity carbonate substrates, has intrigued geologists and pedologists for decades. Terra rossa soils can form from accumulation of insoluble residues during dissolution of the host limestones, addition of volcanic ash, or addition of externally derived, long-range-transported (LRT) aeolian particles. We studied soils and paleosols on high-purity, carbonate aeolianites of Quaternary age on Bermuda, where terra rossa origins have been debated for more than a century. Potential soil parent materials on this island include sand-sized fragments of local volcanic bedrock, the LRT, fine-grained (<20 &mu;m) component of distal loess from the lower Mississippi River Valley, and LRT dust from Africa. These parent materials can be characterized geochemically using trace elements that are immobile in the soil-forming environment. Results indicate that local volcanic bedrock on Bermuda has Sc-Th-La, Cr-Ta-Nd, and Eu/Eu*, La N /Yb N , Gd N /Yb N that can be distinguished from African dust and lower Mississippi River valley loess. Bermuda soils have Sc-Th-La, Cr-Ta-Nd, and Eu/Eu*, La N /Yb N , Gd N /Yb N that indicate derivation from a combination of LRT dust from Africa and local volcanic bedrock. Our results indicate that soils on islands in a very broad latitudinal belt of the western Atlantic margin have been influenced by African LRT dust inputs over much of the past &ndash;500 ka.

Journal of Geophysical Research

Three-dimensional modeling of fine sediment transport by waves and currents in a shallow estuary

A suspended sediment transport model is implemented in the unstructured‐grid SUNTANS model and applied to study fine‐grained sediment transport in South San Francisco Bay. The model enables calculation of suspension of bottom sediment based on combined forcing of tidal currents and wind waves. We show that accurate results can be obtained by employing two‐size classes which are representative of microflocs and macroflocs in the Bay. A key finding of the paper is that the critical calibration parameter is the ratio of the erosion of the microflocs to macroflocs from the bed. Different values of this erosion ratio are needed on the shallow shoals and deeper channels because of the different nature of the sediment dynamics in these regions. Application of a spatially variable erosion ratio and critical shear stress for erosion is shown to accurately reproduce observed suspended sediment concentration at four‐field sites located along a cross‐channel transect. The results reveal a stark contrast between the behavior of the suspended sediment concentration on the shoals and in the deep channel. Waves are shown to resuspend sediments on the shoals, although tidal and wind‐generated currents are needed to mix the thin wave‐driven suspensions into the water column. The contribution to the suspended sediment concentration in the channel by transport from the shoals is similar in magnitude to that due to local resuspension. However, the local contribution is in phase with strong bottom currents which resuspend the sediments, while the contribution from the shoals peaks during low‐water slack tide.

San Francisco Bay

Atmospheric and surface climate associated with 1986–2013 wildfires in North America

We analyze climate simulations conducted with the RegCM3 regional climate model on 50‐ and 15‐km model grids to diagnose the dependence of wildfire incidence and area burned variations on monthly climate long‐term means and anomalies over North America for the period 1986–2013. We created a new wildfire database by merging the Fire Program Analysis Fire‐Occurrence Database, the National Interagency Fire Center Fire History Data, and the Canadian National Fire Database. The database includes 2,083,865 daily fire starts that burned a total of 1.25 × 10 8 ha in North America. We derive long‐term climatologies, standardized gamma indices, and composite climate anomalies of atmospheric circulation (500‐hPa height and wind) and various surface fields (e.g., solar radiation, soil moisture, vapor pressure deficit, and latent and sensible heat fluxes) to illustrate the climatology of burned area. The immediate and lagged monthly atmospheric circulation and surface climate anomalies differentiate high‐ and low‐fire years and the role of El Niño–Southern Oscillation in wildfire occurrence. Our approach demonstrates the association of the seasonal cycles of wildfire and climate and the strong role of climatic variability in modulating the seasonal cycle as a control of wildfire on monthly time scales.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences

Partly cloudy with a chance of lava flows: Forecasting volcanic eruptions in the 21st century

A primary goal of volcanology is forecasting hazardous eruptive activity. Despite much progress over the last century, however, volcanoes still erupt with no detected precursors, lives and livelihoods are lost to eruptive activity, and forecasting the onsets of eruptions remains fraught with uncertainty. Long‐term forecasts are generally derived from the geological and historical records, from which recurrence intervals and styles of activity can be inferred, while shorter‐term forecasts are derived from patterns in monitoring data. Information from geology and monitoring data can be evaluated and combined using statistical analysis, expert elicitation, and conceptual and or mathematical models. Integrative frameworks, such as event trees, combine this diversity of information to produce probabilistic forecasts that can inform the style and scale of the societal response to a potential future eruption. Several developments show promise to revolutionize the utility and accuracy of these forecasts. These include growth in the quantity and quality of multidisciplinary monitoring data, coupled with increases in computing power; machine learning algorithms, which will allow far better utilization of this growing volume of data; and new physiochemical volcano models and data assimilation algorithms, which take advantage of a wide range of monitoring data and realistic physics to better predict the evolution of a given physical state. Although eruption forecasts may never be as generally reliable as weather forecasts, and great caution must be exercised when attempting to predict highly complex volcanic behavior, these and other innovations—particularly when combined in integrative, fully probabilistic forecasting frameworks—should help volcanologists to better issue warnings of volcanic activity on societally relevant time frames.

Hawaii

Multidecadal geomorphic evolution of a profoundly disturbed gravel-bed river system—a complex, nonlinear response and its impact on sediment delivery

A 2.5-km3 debris avalanche during the 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens reset the fluvial landscape of upper North Fork Toutle River valley. Since then, a new drainage network has formed and evolved. Cross-section surveys repeated over nearly 40 years at 16 locations along a 20-km reach of river valley document channel evolution, geomorphic processes, and their impacts on sediment delivery. We analyzed spatial and temporal changes in channel morphology using two new metrics: 1) a shape index that defines the degree of U-shaped or V-shaped valley geometry; and 2) an alluvial phase-space diagram that relates bed degradation or aggradation between consecutive surveys to increases or decreases in cross-section area. Metric relations reveal more diverse channel evolution than originally described by a simple, linear-response model of sequential channel initiation and incision; aggradation and widening; and subsequent episodic scour and fill with little change in bed elevation. Instead, vertical and lateral adjustments have been crucial processes intertwined throughout channel evolution. Channel evolution has followed a distinctly nonlinear and non-sequential trajectory, migrating through several phase spaces and involving varied combinations of (1) degradation and aggradation with widening and narrowing, (2) bed-level fluctuations with little change in cross-section area, and (3) changes in cross-section area with little change of bed elevation. Persistent channel widening and reworking of the channel bed presently drive elevated sediment delivery from this basin. Elevated sediment delivery is likely to persist until valley-floor widths greatly exceed that of the channel-migration corridor, and/or channel banks and valley walls stabilize.

Washington

Offset channels may not accurately record strike-slip fault displacement: Evidence from landscape evolution models

Slip distribution, slip rate, and slip per event for strike‐slip faults are commonly determined by correlating offset stream channels—under the assumption that they record seismic slip—but offset channels are formed by the interplay of tectonic and geomorphic processes. To constrain offset channel development under known tectonic and geomorphic conditions, we use numerical landscape evolution simulations along a theoretical strike‐slip fault with uniform and steady uplift, erosion, and diffusion. We investigate the influence of four tectonic parameters (fault zone width, earthquake recurrence interval, variance of the recurrence interval, and total slip relative to channel spacing) on offset channel development through multiple earthquake cycles. Analysis of >3,000 automatically measured offsets from >135 simulations suggests ~30% variability in individual measurements, but modeled displacement is recovered by averaging multiple measurements. However, the average of multiple offset measurements systematically underestimates modeled slip except when the fault zone is less than ~5 m wide, total slip is less than channel spacing, and offsets are measured shortly after an earthquake. In these simulations, postearthquake landscape evolution widens the geomorphic expression of the fault zone and modifies apparent channel offsets. We distinguish this “geomorphic fault zone” from the tectonic fault zone (zone of coseismic distributed deformation). This study highlights the capability of landscape evolution models to explore a range of conditions not easily defined in natural examples and the importance of averaging multiple measurements. Our results verify that paleoseismic studies must consider how geomorphic change has modified offset markers and use caution interpreting slip histories with multiple earthquakes.

Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth

The birth of a Hawaiian fissure eruption

Most basaltic explosive eruptions intensify abruptly, allowing little time to document processes at the start of eruption. One opportunity came with the initiation of activity from fissure 8 (F8) during the 2018 eruption on the lower East Rift Zone of Kīlauea, Hawaii. F8 erupted in four episodes. We recorded 28 min of high‐definition video during a 51‐min period, capturing the onset of the second episode on 5 May. From the videos, we were able to analyze the following in‐flight parameters: frequency and duration of explosions; ejecta heights; pyroclast exit velocities; in‐flight total mass and estimated mass eruption rates; and the in‐flight total grain size distributions. The videos record a transition from initial pulsating outgassing, via spaced, but increasingly rapid, discrete explosions, to quasisustained, unsteady fountaining. This transition accompanied waxing intensity (mass flux) of the F8 eruption. We infer that all activity was driven by a combination of the ascent of a coupled mixture of small bubbles and melt, and the buoyant rise of decoupled gas slugs and/or pockets. The balance between these two types of concurrent flow determined the exact form of the eruptive activity at any point in time, and changes to their relative contributions drove the transition we observed at early F8. Qualitative observations of other Hawaiian fountains at Kīlauea suggest that this physical model may apply more generally. This study demonstrates the value of in‐flight parameters derived from high‐resolution videos, which offer a rapid and highly time‐sensitive alternative to measurements based on sampling of deposits posteruption.

Island of Hawai'i

A rock record of complex aeolian bedforms in a Hesperian desert landscape: The Stimson formation as exposed in the Murray Buttes, Gale Crater, Mars

Lithified aeolian strata encode information about ancient planetary surface processes and the climate during deposition. Decoding these strata provides insight regarding past sediment transport processes, bedform kinematics, depositional landscape, and the prevailing climate. Deciphering these signatures requires a detailed analysis of sedimentary architecture to reconstruct dune morphology, motion, and the conditions that enabled their formation. Here, we show that a distinct sandstone unit exposed in the foothills of Mount Sharp, Gale crater, Mars, records the preserved expression of compound aeolian bedforms that accumulated in a large dune field. Analysis of Mastcam images of the Stimson formation shows that it consists of cross‐stratified sandstone beds separated by a hierarchy of erosive bounding surfaces formed during dune migration. The presence of two orders of surfaces with distinct geometrical relations reveals that the Stimson‐era landscape consisted of large dunes (draas) with smaller, superimposed dunes migrating across their lee slopes. Analysis of cross‐lamination and subset bounding surface geometries indicate a complex wind regime that transported sediment toward the north, constructing oblique dunes. This dune field was a direct product of the regional climate and the surface processes active in Gale crater during the fraction of the Hesperian Period recorded by the Stimson formation. The environment was arid, supporting a large aeolian dune field; this setting contrasts with earlier humid depositional episodes, recorded by the lacustrine sediments of the Murray formation (also Hesperian). Such fine‐scale reconstruction of landscapes on the ancient surface of Mars is important to understanding the planet’s past climate and habitability.

Journal of Geophysical Research - Planets

Evidence for fluctuating wind in shaping an ancient Martian dune field: The Stimson formation at the Greenheugh pediment, Gale crater

Temporal fluctuations of wind strength and direction can influence aeolian bedform morphology and orientation, which can be encoded into the architecture of aeolian deposits. These strata represent a direct record of atmospheric processes and can be used to understand ancient Martian atmospheric processes as well as those on Earth. The strata can: give insight to ancient atmospheric circulation, how the atmosphere evolved in response to global changes in habitability, and how ancient processes differ from modern processes. The Stimson formation at the Greenheugh pediment (Gale crater) records evidence of fluctuating wind across multiple temporal scales. The strata can be subdivided into three intervals–Gleann Beag, Ladder, and Edinburgh intervals. Internally, the intervals record changes of dune morphology and orientation, correlatable to wind fluctuations at multiple temporal scales. The basal Gleann Beag interval comprises compound cross-strata, deposited by oblique compound dunes. These dunes record a bimodal wind regime, resulting in net sediment transport toward the north. The Ladder interval records a reversal of sediment transport to the south, where straight-crested simple-dunes shaped by a seasonally variable winds formed. Finally, the Edinburgh interval records sediment transport to the west, where a unimodal wind formed sinuous-crested simple dunes. These observations demonstrate active and variable atmospheric circulation in Gale crater during the accumulation of the Stimson dune field, at multiple temporal scales from seasonally driven winds to much longer time-frames, during the Hesperian. These observations can be used to further understand ancient atmospheric conditions and processes, at a high temporal resolution on Mars.

Journal of Geophysical Research - Planets

Atmospheric river storm flooding influences tidal marsh elevation building processes

Disturbances are a key component of ecological processes in coastal ecosystems. Investigating factors that affect tidal marsh accretion and elevation change is important, largely due to accelerating sea-level rise and the ecological and economic value of wetlands. Sediment accumulation rates, elevation change, and flooding were examined at five marshes along a riverine-tidal gradient in the northern San Francisco Bay-Delta, California, USA during an Atmospheric River storm event in 2017 using Surface Elevation Tables (SETs), feldspar marker horizons (MH), and continuous water-level sensors. Our results showed that localized marsh flooding increased during the storm event, but not evenly across sites. Marsh surface elevation increased the most at the tidal freshwater marsh site in response to the storms, with an average surface elevation gain of 45.6 ± 13.1 mm, and the least at a tidal saline marsh with an average surface elevation gain of 4.0 ± 1.2 mm. A marsh located on the large embayment did not exhibit an immediate response to the storm but had a surface elevation gain of 21.5 ± 13.7 mm 6 months after the storm. During the storm period, marsh distance to the bay was the strongest predictor of elevation change, followed by SET-MH elevations. Conversely, during non-storm periods, SET-MH elevation was a relatively strong predictor of elevation change. Atmospheric Rivers appear to be a major factor affecting short-term spatial and temporal variability in flooding and sedimentation rates in tidal marsh systems. Incorporating information about storms into monitoring could increase our understanding of how episodic storms can impact marshes.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences

Quantifying large-scale surface change using SAR amplitude images: Crater morphology changes during the 2019-2020 Shishaldin Volcano eruption

Morphological processes often induce meter-scale elevation changes. When a volcano erupts, tracking such processes provides insights into the style and evolution of eruptive activity and related hazards. Compared to optical remote-sensing products, synthetic aperture radar (SAR) observes surface change during inclement weather and at night. Differential SAR interferometry estimates phase change between SAR acquisitions and is commonly applied to quantify deformation. However, large deformation or other coherence loss can limit its use. We develop a new approach applicable when repeated digital elevation models (DEMs) cannot be otherwise retrieved. Assuming an isotropic radar cross-section, we estimate meter-scale vertical morphological change directly from SAR amplitude images via an optimization method that utilizes a high-quality DEM. We verify our implementation through simulation of a collapse feature that we modulate onto topography. We simulate radar effects and recover the simulated collapse. To validate our method, we estimate elevation changes from TerraSAR-X stripmap images for the 2011–2012 eruption of Mount Cleveland. Our results reproduce those from two previous studies; one that used the same dataset, and another based on thermal satellite data. By applying this method to the 2019–2020 eruption of Shishaldin Volcano, Alaska, we generate elevation change time series from dozens of co-registered TerraSAR-X high-resolution spotlight images. Our results quantify previously unresolved cone growth in November 2019, collapses associated with explosions in December–January, and further changes in crater elevations into spring 2020. This method can be used to track meter-scale morphology changes for ongoing eruptions with low latency as SAR imagery becomes available.

Alaska

Toward next-generation lava flow forecasting: Development of a fast, physics-based lava propagation model

During effusive volcanic crises, the eruption and propagation of lava flows pose a significant hazard to nearby populations, homes, and infrastructure. Consequently, timely lava flow forecasts are a critical need for volcano observatory and emergency management operations. Previous lava flow modeling tools are typically either too slow to produce timely forecasts, or are fast, but lack critical aspects of lava physics or important forecasting outputs. In particular, the strong thermal stratification present in laminar, high-Prandtl number flows has generally been neglected. Bulk rheological changes have previously been computed from cell-averaged temperatures, assuming that the flow is thermally mixed. Here, we detail the development and initial testing of Lava2d, a new two-dimensional depth-averaged finite volume model of lava flow propagation over natural terrain which accounts for bulk rheological changes due to thermorheological stratification. We use a novel approach to energy conservation based on tracking cooling and solidifying at the flow base and at the moving flow surface, allowing for the estimation of more realistic vertical thermorheological profiles, while maintaining computational efficiency, producing very timely model runs. We validate our approach with three examples: comparison with theoretical propagation of crust-dominated lava flows, comparison with a large-scale molten basalt experiment from the Syracuse University Lava Project, and efficiency testing and comparison with the initial phase of the 1984 Mauna Loa lava flows. Our model is shown to produce rapid, realistic forecasts, making it a good candidate for operationalization in active volcanic regions such as in Hawai'i.

Journal of Geophysical Research - Solid Earth

Using corrected and imputed polarity measurements to improve focal mechanisms in a regional earthquake catalog near the Mt. Lewis Fault Zone, California

We utilized relative polarity measurements and machine learning techniques to better resolve focal mechanisms and stress orientations considering a catalog of ∼29,000 relocated earthquakes that occurred during 1984–2021 in the southeastern San Francisco Bay Area. Earthquake focal mechanisms are commonly produced using P wave first motion polarities, which traditionally requires events to be well-recorded across a seismic network with good focal sphere coverage. We adapted recently developed approaches that are less dependent on high signal-to-noise records and exploit similar waveforms to produce relative polarity and amplitude measurements between earthquake pairs. These techniques were previously only applied on localized earthquake sequences, and we further developed these approaches so that they can be utilized for regional catalogs. We validated or corrected manually identified polarities by performing polarity consensuses using earthquake pairs. Missing and unreliable polarity measurements were imputed using iterative random forests, an unsupervised ensemble machine learning method. Relative P and S wave amplitude measurements were made between earthquakes, constraining S / P ratios for low signal-to-noise waveforms. Using these techniques, we were able to reduce focal mechanism uncertainties by an average of ∼13° and produced well-constrained focal mechanisms for ∼6 times as many earthquakes than those produced using only the traditionally derived polarities. We performed stress inversions using the focal mechanisms by grouping the focal mechanism results into a quadtree structure. Our stress results are consistent with previous work, albeit at a higher spatial resolution, and demonstrate these techniques can aid our understanding of fault structures and kinematics in more detail than was previously possible.

California

Sedimentological and geochemical perspectives on a marginal lake environment recorded in the Hartmann’s Valley and Karasburg members of the Murray formation, Gale crater, Mars

This study utilizes instruments from the Curiosity rover payload to develop an integrated paleoenvironmental and compositional reconstruction for the 65-m thick interval of stratigraphy comprising the Hartmann's Valley and Karasburg members of the Murray formation, Gale crater, Mars. The stratigraphy consists of cross-stratified sandstone (Facies 1), planar-laminated sandstone (Facies 2), and planar-laminated mudstone (Facies 3). Facies 1 is composed of sandstone showing truncated sets of concave-curvilinear laminae stacked into cosets. Sets are estimated to be meter-to sub-meter-scale, consistent with low-height dunes. Thin stratigraphic intervals of Facies 1 and stacking patterns with Facies 2 and 3 support a wet aeolian dune interpretation. Meter-thick packages of planar-laminated sandstone (Facies 2) are interpreted to represent interfingering dune-interdune strata. Facies 3 consists of meter-thick packages of planar-laminated mudstone interpreted to represent lacustrine deposition with persistent standing water. Integration of geochemistry with each facies reveals some compositional control based on the depositional process. Models for source rock composition from Alpha Particle X-Ray Spectrometer measurements show that facies derived from a basaltic source. Alteration indices and geochemical trends provide evidence that moderate chemical weathering occurred before compositional changes due to diagenesis. Differences in wt% FeO (T) and TiO 2 between facies are minimal, though trends point to sediment sorting in transport. Comparisons to terrestrial basaltic sedimentary systems indicate that the Hartmann's Valley and Karasburg facies reflect deposition in an environment where diverse subaqueous and subaerial facies persisted adjacent to a long-lived body of water.

Journal of Geophysical Research Planets

Variation in leaf reflectance spectra across the California flora partitioned by evolutionary history, geographic origin, and deep time

Evolutionary relatedness underlies patterns of functional diversity in the natural world. Hyperspectral remote sensing has the potential to detect these patterns in plants through inherited patterns of leaf reflectance spectra. We collected leaf reflectance data from across the California flora from plants grown in a common garden. Regions of the reflectance spectra vary in the depth and strength of phylogenetic signal. We also show that these differences are much greater than variation due to the geographic origin of the plant. At the phylogenetic extent of the California flora, spectral variation explained by the combination of ecotypic variation (divergent evolution) and convergent evolution of disparate lineages was minimal (3 to 7 %) but statistically significant. Interestingly, at the extent of a single genus ( Arctostaphylos ) no unique variation could be attributed to geographic origin. However, up to 18% of the spectral variation among Arctostaphylos individuals was shared between phylogeny and intraspecific variation stemming from ecotypic differences (i.e., geographic origin). Future studies could conduct more structured experiments (e.g., transplants or observations along environmental gradients) to disentangle these sources of variation and include other intraspecific variation (e.g., plasticity). We constrain broad scale spectral variability due to ecotypic sources, providing further support for the idea that phylogenetic clusters of species might be detectable through remote sensing. Phylogenetic clusters could represent a valuable dimension of biodiversity monitoring and detection.

California

Earthquake cycle mechanics during caldera collapse: Simulating the 2018 Kīlauea eruption

In multiple observed caldera-forming eruptions, the rock overlying a draining magma reservoir dropped downward along ring faults in sequences of discrete collapse earthquakes. These sequences are analogous to tectonic earthquake cycles and provide opportunities to examine fault mechanics and collapse eruption dynamics over multiple events. Collapse earthquake cycles have been studied with zero-dimensional slider-block models, but these do not account for the complicated interplay between fluid and elastic dynamics or for factors such as the heterogeneous fault properties and non-vertical ring fault geometries often inferred at volcanoes. We present two-dimensional axisymmetric mafic piston-like collapse earthquake cycle models that include rate-and-state friction, fully-dynamic elasticity, and compressible viscous fluid magma flow. We demonstrate that collapse earthquake intervals and magnitudes are highly sensitive to inertial effects, evolving stress fields, fault geometry, and depth-varying fault friction. Given the consistent earthquake cycles observed in most eruptions, this suggests that ring faults can quickly stabilize and often become nearly vertical at depth. We use the well-monitored 2018 collapse sequence at Kı̄lauea as a case study. Our model can produce many features of Kı̄lauea seismic and geodetic observations, except for a significant amount of interseismic slip, which cannot be readily explained with simple rate-and-state friction parameterizations.

Hawaii

Advancing current understanding of Martian impact-generated hydrothermal systems through novel coupled modeling: Insights from Gale, Jezero, and other craters

Impact-generated hydrothermal systems are considered potentially habitable environments on Mars, Earth, and other planetary bodies for microbial life. However, there is an ongoing debate regarding what geological features on Mars provide definitive evidence for such systems. Although earlier studies have modeled hydrothermal processes in Martian craters, they often lacked integration with shock physics hydrocodes to constrain initial impact conditions. The importance of this two-code coupling was demonstrated by successfully replicating alteration signatures in the Earth's Haughton impact structure. In this study, we use a similar two-code approach, combining the iSALE hydrocode with the HYDROTHERM hydrothermal model to simulate the full evolution of impact-generated hydrothermal systems. We apply this method to craters the size of Jezero (∼50 km) and Gale (∼154 km) in diameter. Although Jezero's interior is largely buried, our results align with hypothesized hydrothermal vents and alteration minerals near central uplifts in similarly sized exposed craters, such as Toro and Auki. Furthermore, our models correspond to alteration patterns observed by the Curiosity in the lower layers of Mount Sharp, which may represent remnants of impact-driven hydrothermal activity. A key finding is that these systems may persist much longer than previously estimated. Our simulations suggest that a Jezero-sized system could remain habitable for thermophiles for approximately 720,000 years, whereas a Gale-sized system could persist for nearly 2 million years. Additionally, simulations under unsaturated crustal conditions reveal that air-dominated near-surface layers can suppress vertical fluid flow, enabling deep subsurface alteration without producing detectable mineral signatures at the surface.

Journal of Geophysical Research - Planets

Constraining mean landslide occurrence rates for non-temporal landslide inventories using high-resolution elevation data

Constraining landslide occurrence rates can help to generate landslide hazard models that predict the spatial and temporal occurrence of landslides. However, most landslide inventories do not include any temporal data due to the difficulties of dating landslide deposits. Here we introduce a method for estimating the mean landslide occurrence rate of deep-seated rotational and translational slides derived solely from high-resolution (≤3 m) elevation data and globally available estimates of the diffusion coefficient for sediment flux. The method applies a linear diffusion model to the roughest landslide deposits until they reach a representative non-landslide roughness distribution. This estimates the time for a landslide deposit to be unrecognizable in high-resolution digital elevation data, which we term the mean lifetime of the landslide. Using the mean lifetime and number of landslides within an area of interest, we can estimate the mean occurrence rate of landslides over that domain. We validate this approach using a comprehensive temporal inventory of landslides in western Oregon created using age-roughness curves that are calibrated with high-resolution elevation data and radiocarbon data. We find good agreement between our diffusion method and the existing age-roughness-derived estimates, producing mean lifetimes of 4500 and 5200 years (4% difference), respectively. Hazard maps produced using the two methodologies generally agree, with the maximum differences in landslide probability reaching 0.1. Due to the relative abundance of high-resolution elevation data compared with age-dated landslides, our method could help constrain landslide occurrence rates in areas previously considered unfeasible.

Oregon