Search USGS⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search USGS

Results for “Report of the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

192 records · Page 11Linked to original sources

The volcano letter: A weekly news leaflet of the Hawaiian Volcano Research Association - 1948

The Volcano Letter was an informal publication issued at irregular intervals by the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO) during the years 1925 to 1955. Individual issues contain information on volcanic activity, volcano research, and volcano monitoring in Hawaii. Information on volcanic activity at other locations is also occasionally included. The Volcano Letter was published by HVO through multiple changes in administration, including the Hawaiian Volcano Research Association (1925 to 1932), the U.S. Geological Survey (1932 to 1935), the Department of the Interior (1935 to 1938), and the University of Hawai‘i (1938 to 1955). Issues 1-262 were published weekly from January 1, 1925, to January 2, 1930, and consisted of a single page of text. Issues 263-384, also published weekly, from January 9, 1930, to May 5, 1932, were generally longer—four pages— and provided more detail on volcanic activity, including photographs, maps, and plots. Weekly issues 385-387, published May 12-26, 1932, were a single page of text due to budget reductions brought on by the Great Depression. Budget restrictions reduced the publishing frequency to monthly for issues 388-428, covering the period of June 1932 to October 1935; these issues were generally shorter, 1-2 pages, and sometimes featured figures. From November 1935 to July 1938, issues 429-461 remained monthly but increased in length (generally eight pages) and featured figures frequently. Issues 462-530, published over the period of August 1938 to December 1955, varied in length from 2-15 pages, but were published quarterly, rather than monthly. Six of the Volcano Letters are misnumbered: Jan. 21, 1926 number is 55 though it should 56 July 29, 1926 number is 82 though it should be 83 Feb. 16, 1928 number is 161 though it should be 164 May 31, 1928 number is 197 though it should be 179 Nov. 29, 1928 number is 204 though it should be 205

Hawaii↗

The volcano letter: A weekly news leaflet of the Hawaiian Volcano Research Association - 1949

The Volcano Letter was an informal publication issued at irregular intervals by the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO) during the years 1925 to 1955. Individual issues contain information on volcanic activity, volcano research, and volcano monitoring in Hawaii. Information on volcanic activity at other locations is also occasionally included. The Volcano Letter was published by HVO through multiple changes in administration, including the Hawaiian Volcano Research Association (1925 to 1932), the U.S. Geological Survey (1932 to 1935), the Department of the Interior (1935 to 1938), and the University of Hawai‘i (1938 to 1955). Issues 1-262 were published weekly from January 1, 1925, to January 2, 1930, and consisted of a single page of text. Issues 263-384, also published weekly, from January 9, 1930, to May 5, 1932, were generally longer—four pages— and provided more detail on volcanic activity, including photographs, maps, and plots. Weekly issues 385-387, published May 12-26, 1932, were a single page of text due to budget reductions brought on by the Great Depression. Budget restrictions reduced the publishing frequency to monthly for issues 388-428, covering the period of June 1932 to October 1935; these issues were generally shorter, 1-2 pages, and sometimes featured figures. From November 1935 to July 1938, issues 429-461 remained monthly but increased in length (generally eight pages) and featured figures frequently. Issues 462-530, published over the period of August 1938 to December 1955, varied in length from 2-15 pages, but were published quarterly, rather than monthly. Six of the Volcano Letters are misnumbered: Jan. 21, 1926 number is 55 though it should 56 July 29, 1926 number is 82 though it should be 83 Feb. 16, 1928 number is 161 though it should be 164 May 31, 1928 number is 197 though it should be 179 Nov. 29, 1928 number is 204 though it should be 205

Hawaii↗

The volcano letter: A weekly news leaflet of the Hawaiian Volcano Research Association - 1950

The Volcano Letter was an informal publication issued at irregular intervals by the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO) during the years 1925 to 1955. Individual issues contain information on volcanic activity, volcano research, and volcano monitoring in Hawaii. Information on volcanic activity at other locations is also occasionally included. The Volcano Letter was published by HVO through multiple changes in administration, including the Hawaiian Volcano Research Association (1925 to 1932), the U.S. Geological Survey (1932 to 1935), the Department of the Interior (1935 to 1938), and the University of Hawai‘i (1938 to 1955). Issues 1-262 were published weekly from January 1, 1925, to January 2, 1930, and consisted of a single page of text. Issues 263-384, also published weekly, from January 9, 1930, to May 5, 1932, were generally longer—four pages— and provided more detail on volcanic activity, including photographs, maps, and plots. Weekly issues 385-387, published May 12-26, 1932, were a single page of text due to budget reductions brought on by the Great Depression. Budget restrictions reduced the publishing frequency to monthly for issues 388-428, covering the period of June 1932 to October 1935; these issues were generally shorter, 1-2 pages, and sometimes featured figures. From November 1935 to July 1938, issues 429-461 remained monthly but increased in length (generally eight pages) and featured figures frequently. Issues 462-530, published over the period of August 1938 to December 1955, varied in length from 2-15 pages, but were published quarterly, rather than monthly. Six of the Volcano Letters are misnumbered: Jan. 21, 1926 number is 55 though it should 56 July 29, 1926 number is 82 though it should be 83 Feb. 16, 1928 number is 161 though it should be 164 May 31, 1928 number is 197 though it should be 179 Nov. 29, 1928 number is 204 though it should be 205

Hawaii↗

The volcano letter: A weekly news leaflet of the Hawaiian Volcano Research Association - 1951

The Volcano Letter was an informal publication issued at irregular intervals by the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO) during the years 1925 to 1955. Individual issues contain information on volcanic activity, volcano research, and volcano monitoring in Hawaii. Information on volcanic activity at other locations is also occasionally included. The Volcano Letter was published by HVO through multiple changes in administration, including the Hawaiian Volcano Research Association (1925 to 1932), the U.S. Geological Survey (1932 to 1935), the Department of the Interior (1935 to 1938), and the University of Hawai‘i (1938 to 1955). Issues 1-262 were published weekly from January 1, 1925, to January 2, 1930, and consisted of a single page of text. Issues 263-384, also published weekly, from January 9, 1930, to May 5, 1932, were generally longer—four pages— and provided more detail on volcanic activity, including photographs, maps, and plots. Weekly issues 385-387, published May 12-26, 1932, were a single page of text due to budget reductions brought on by the Great Depression. Budget restrictions reduced the publishing frequency to monthly for issues 388-428, covering the period of June 1932 to October 1935; these issues were generally shorter, 1-2 pages, and sometimes featured figures. From November 1935 to July 1938, issues 429-461 remained monthly but increased in length (generally eight pages) and featured figures frequently. Issues 462-530, published over the period of August 1938 to December 1955, varied in length from 2-15 pages, but were published quarterly, rather than monthly. Six of the Volcano Letters are misnumbered: Jan. 21, 1926 number is 55 though it should 56 July 29, 1926 number is 82 though it should be 83 Feb. 16, 1928 number is 161 though it should be 164 May 31, 1928 number is 197 though it should be 179 Nov. 29, 1928 number is 204 though it should be 205

Hawaii↗

The volcano letter: A weekly news leaflet of the Hawaiian Volcano Research Association - 1952

The Volcano Letter was an informal publication issued at irregular intervals by the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO) during the years 1925 to 1955. Individual issues contain information on volcanic activity, volcano research, and volcano monitoring in Hawaii. Information on volcanic activity at other locations is also occasionally included. The Volcano Letter was published by HVO through multiple changes in administration, including the Hawaiian Volcano Research Association (1925 to 1932), the U.S. Geological Survey (1932 to 1935), the Department of the Interior (1935 to 1938), and the University of Hawai‘i (1938 to 1955). Issues 1-262 were published weekly from January 1, 1925, to January 2, 1930, and consisted of a single page of text. Issues 263-384, also published weekly, from January 9, 1930, to May 5, 1932, were generally longer—four pages— and provided more detail on volcanic activity, including photographs, maps, and plots. Weekly issues 385-387, published May 12-26, 1932, were a single page of text due to budget reductions brought on by the Great Depression. Budget restrictions reduced the publishing frequency to monthly for issues 388-428, covering the period of June 1932 to October 1935; these issues were generally shorter, 1-2 pages, and sometimes featured figures. From November 1935 to July 1938, issues 429-461 remained monthly but increased in length (generally eight pages) and featured figures frequently. Issues 462-530, published over the period of August 1938 to December 1955, varied in length from 2-15 pages, but were published quarterly, rather than monthly. Six of the Volcano Letters are misnumbered: Jan. 21, 1926 number is 55 though it should 56 July 29, 1926 number is 82 though it should be 83 Feb. 16, 1928 number is 161 though it should be 164 May 31, 1928 number is 197 though it should be 179 Nov. 29, 1928 number is 204 though it should be 205

Hawaii↗

The volcano letter: A weekly news leaflet of the Hawaiian Volcano Research Association - 1953

The Volcano Letter was an informal publication issued at irregular intervals by the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO) during the years 1925 to 1955. Individual issues contain information on volcanic activity, volcano research, and volcano monitoring in Hawaii. Information on volcanic activity at other locations is also occasionally included. The Volcano Letter was published by HVO through multiple changes in administration, including the Hawaiian Volcano Research Association (1925 to 1932), the U.S. Geological Survey (1932 to 1935), the Department of the Interior (1935 to 1938), and the University of Hawai‘i (1938 to 1955). Issues 1-262 were published weekly from January 1, 1925, to January 2, 1930, and consisted of a single page of text. Issues 263-384, also published weekly, from January 9, 1930, to May 5, 1932, were generally longer—four pages— and provided more detail on volcanic activity, including photographs, maps, and plots. Weekly issues 385-387, published May 12-26, 1932, were a single page of text due to budget reductions brought on by the Great Depression. Budget restrictions reduced the publishing frequency to monthly for issues 388-428, covering the period of June 1932 to October 1935; these issues were generally shorter, 1-2 pages, and sometimes featured figures. From November 1935 to July 1938, issues 429-461 remained monthly but increased in length (generally eight pages) and featured figures frequently. Issues 462-530, published over the period of August 1938 to December 1955, varied in length from 2-15 pages, but were published quarterly, rather than monthly. Six of the Volcano Letters are misnumbered: Jan. 21, 1926 number is 55 though it should 56 July 29, 1926 number is 82 though it should be 83 Feb. 16, 1928 number is 161 though it should be 164 May 31, 1928 number is 197 though it should be 179 Nov. 29, 1928 number is 204 though it should be 205

Hawaii↗

The volcano letter: A weekly news leaflet of the Hawaiian Volcano Research Association - 1954

The Volcano Letter was an informal publication issued at irregular intervals by the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO) during the years 1925 to 1955. Individual issues contain information on volcanic activity, volcano research, and volcano monitoring in Hawaii. Information on volcanic activity at other locations is also occasionally included. The Volcano Letter was published by HVO through multiple changes in administration, including the Hawaiian Volcano Research Association (1925 to 1932), the U.S. Geological Survey (1932 to 1935), the Department of the Interior (1935 to 1938), and the University of Hawai‘i (1938 to 1955). Issues 1-262 were published weekly from January 1, 1925, to January 2, 1930, and consisted of a single page of text. Issues 263-384, also published weekly, from January 9, 1930, to May 5, 1932, were generally longer—four pages— and provided more detail on volcanic activity, including photographs, maps, and plots. Weekly issues 385-387, published May 12-26, 1932, were a single page of text due to budget reductions brought on by the Great Depression. Budget restrictions reduced the publishing frequency to monthly for issues 388-428, covering the period of June 1932 to October 1935; these issues were generally shorter, 1-2 pages, and sometimes featured figures. From November 1935 to July 1938, issues 429-461 remained monthly but increased in length (generally eight pages) and featured figures frequently. Issues 462-530, published over the period of August 1938 to December 1955, varied in length from 2-15 pages, but were published quarterly, rather than monthly. Six of the Volcano Letters are misnumbered: Jan. 21, 1926 number is 55 though it should 56 July 29, 1926 number is 82 though it should be 83 Feb. 16, 1928 number is 161 though it should be 164 May 31, 1928 number is 197 though it should be 179 Nov. 29, 1928 number is 204 though it should be 205

Hawaii↗

The volcano letter: A weekly news leaflet of the Hawaiian Volcano Research Association - 1955

The Volcano Letter was an informal publication issued at irregular intervals by the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO) during the years 1925 to 1955. Individual issues contain information on volcanic activity, volcano research, and volcano monitoring in Hawaii. Information on volcanic activity at other locations is also occasionally included. The Volcano Letter was published by HVO through multiple changes in administration, including the Hawaiian Volcano Research Association (1925 to 1932), the U.S. Geological Survey (1932 to 1935), the Department of the Interior (1935 to 1938), and the University of Hawai‘i (1938 to 1955). Issues 1-262 were published weekly from January 1, 1925, to January 2, 1930, and consisted of a single page of text. Issues 263-384, also published weekly, from January 9, 1930, to May 5, 1932, were generally longer—four pages— and provided more detail on volcanic activity, including photographs, maps, and plots. Weekly issues 385-387, published May 12-26, 1932, were a single page of text due to budget reductions brought on by the Great Depression. Budget restrictions reduced the publishing frequency to monthly for issues 388-428, covering the period of June 1932 to October 1935; these issues were generally shorter, 1-2 pages, and sometimes featured figures. From November 1935 to July 1938, issues 429-461 remained monthly but increased in length (generally eight pages) and featured figures frequently. Issues 462-530, published over the period of August 1938 to December 1955, varied in length from 2-15 pages, but were published quarterly, rather than monthly. Six of the Volcano Letters are misnumbered: Jan. 21, 1926 number is 55 though it should 56 July 29, 1926 number is 82 though it should be 83 Feb. 16, 1928 number is 161 though it should be 164 May 31, 1928 number is 197 though it should be 179 Nov. 29, 1928 number is 204 though it should be 205

Hawaii↗

Eruptions of Hawaiian volcanoes—Past, present, and future

Viewing an erupting volcano is a memorable experience, one that has inspired fear, superstition, worship, curiosity, and fascination since before the dawn of civilization. In modern times, volcanic phenomena have attracted intense scientific interest because they provide the key to understanding processes that have created and shaped more than 80 percent of the Earth’s surface. The active Hawaiian volcanoes have received special attention worldwide because of their frequent spectacular eruptions, which often can be viewed and studied with relative ease and safety. In January 1987, the U.S. Geological Survey Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO), then located on the caldera rim of Kīlauea, celebrated its 75th anniversary. To honor this anniversary, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) published Professional Paper 1350 , a comprehensive summary of the many studies on Hawaiian volcanism by USGS and other scientists through the mid-1980s. Drawing from the wealth of data contained in that volume, the USGS also published in 1987 the original edition of this general-interest booklet, focusing on selected aspects of the eruptive history, style, and products of two of the State of Hawaii’s active volcanoes—Kīlauea and Mauna Loa. A second edition of the booklet was published in 2010 to commemorate the Centennial of HVO (which occurred in January 2012), summarizing abundant new information gained since the January 1983 onset of Kīlauea’s middle East Rift Zone eruption at Pu‘u‘ō‘ō and the March 2008 beginning of Kīlauea’s summit lava-lake activity within Halema‘uma‘u. In this third edition, we include highlights from Kīlauea’s subsequent activity, including the 2018 eruption in the lower East Rift Zone—the largest and most destructive in at least 200 years—and associated summit-collapse events, the eruptions at Kīlauea’s summit since 2018, and the 2022 eruption of Mauna Loa, which occurred after 38 years of quiescence. It also considers new data leading to an improved history of Kīlauea’s explosive activity in the recent geologic past. This general-interest booklet is a companion to the one on Mount St. Helens volcano (southwestern Washington) first published in 1984, revised in 1990. Together, these publications illustrate the contrast between the two main types of volcanoes: shield volcanoes, such as those in the State of Hawaii, which generally are nonexplosive to weakly explosive; and composite volcanoes, such as Mount St. Helens in the Cascade Range, which generally erupt explosively.

Hawaii↗

Feasibility study of earthquake early warning (EEW) in Hawaii

The effects of earthquake shaking on the population and infrastructure across the State of Hawaii could be catastrophic, and the high seismic hazard in the region emphasizes the likelihood of such an event. Earthquake early warning (EEW) has the potential to give several seconds of warning before strong shaking starts, and thus reduce loss of life and damage to property. The two approaches to EEW are (1) a network approach (such as ShakeAlert or ElarmS) where the regional seismic network is used to detect the earthquake and distribute the alarm and (2) a local approach where a critical facility has a single seismometer (or small array) and a warning system on the premises. The network approach, also referred to here as ShakeAlert or ElarmS, uses the closest stations within a regional seismic network to detect and characterize an earthquake. Most parameters used for a network approach require observations on multiple stations (typically 3 or 4), which slows down the alarm time slightly, but the alarms are generally more reliable than with single-station EEW approaches. The network approach also benefits from having stations closer to the source of any potentially damaging earthquake, so that alarms can be sent ahead to anyone who subscribes to receive the notification. Thus, a fully implemented ShakeAlert system can provide seconds of warning for both critical facilities and general populations ahead of damaging earthquake shaking. The cost to implement and maintain a fully operational ShakeAlert system is high compared to a local approach or single-station solution, but the benefits of a ShakeAlert system would be felt statewide—the warning times for strong shaking are potentially longer for most sources at most locations. The local approach, referred to herein as “single station,” uses measurements from a single seismometer to assess whether strong earthquake shaking can be expected. Because of the reliance on a single station, false alarms are more common than when using a regional network of seismometers. Given the current network, a single-station approach provides more warning for damaging earthquakes that occur close to the station, but it would have limited benefit compared to a fully implemented ShakeAlert system. For Honolulu, for example, the single-station approach provides an advantage over ShakeAlert only for earthquakes that occur in a narrow zone extending northeast and southwest of O‘ahu. Instrumentation and alarms associated with the single-station approach are typically maintained and assessed within the target facility, and thus no outside connectivity is required. A single-station approach, then, is unlikely to help broader populations beyond the individuals at the target facility, but they have the benefit of being commercially available for relatively little cost. The USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO) is the Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS) regional seismic network responsible for locating and characterizing earthquakes across the State of Hawaii. During 2014 and 2015, HVO tested a network-based EEW algorithm within the current seismic network in order to assess the suitability for building a full EEW system. Using the current seismic instrumentation and processing setup at HVO, it is possible for a network approach to release an alarm a little more than 3 seconds after the earthquake is recorded on the fourth seismometer. Presently, earthquakes having M≥3 detected with the ElarmS algorithm have an average location error of approximately 4.5 km and an average magnitude error of -0.3 compared to the reviewed catalog locations from the HVO. Additional stations and upgrades to existing seismic stations would serve to improve solution precision and warning times and additional staffing would be required to provide support for a robust, network-based EEW system. For a critical facility on the Island of Hawaiʻi, such as the telescopes atop Mauna Kea, one phased approach to mitigate losses could be to immediately install a single station system to establish some level of warning. Subsequently, supporting the implementation of a full network-based EEW system on the Island of Hawaiʻi would provide additional benefit in the form of improved warning times once the system is fully installed and operational, which may take several years. Distributed populations across the Hawaiian Islands, including those outside the major cities and far from the likely earthquake source areas, would likely only benefit from a network approach such as ShakeAlert to provide warnings of strong shaking.

Hawaii↗

Infrasound for volcano monitoring

Introduction Volcanic eruptions produce acoustic waves when volcanic gases and hot material rapidly expand in the atmosphere. Volcanic activity can produce acoustic signals with a wide range of frequencies, from very long period (>10 seconds) to audible (>20 hertz [Hz]), but the most energetic band is typically in the infrasound from 0.5 to 20 Hz. Studies of volcanic infrasound and the deployment of infrasound for volcano monitoring have increased rapidly in the past two decades as sensors have improved and as analytical tools have become more widely available. Improved sensors and tools have led to a growing diversity of eruptive activity being recorded and characterized, from Hawaiian to Plinian eruption styles at scales from local to global (Johnson and Ripepe, 2011; Fee and Matoza, 2013). Infrasound sensors on volcanoes are most commonly deployed locally with seismic stations, and the combination of co-located seismic and infrasound is more useful for characterizing unrest and detecting changes in activity than either data stream alone (for example, Lyons and others, 2016; Fee and others, 2017a; Matoza and others, 2018). At local (<15 kilometers [km]) to regional (15–250 km) distances from volcanoes, arrays of infrasound sensors are commonly deployed to detect coherent signals, constrain the direction to the source, and provide information on eruption dynamics; thus, infrasound is well suited to regional monitoring of volcanoes when local sensor networks are not feasible. A common usage of infrasound data in an observatory is to provide rapid confirmation that an explosion has occurred (for example, Coombs and others, 2018), although near-real-time eruption intensity quantification is also possible (Fee and others, 2010a; Ripepe and others, 2018; fig. C1). Infrasound is well suited to this task because it is not affected by clouds or precipitation and can propagate long distances with little attenuation. However, wind and ocean noise also produce infrasound, and spatiotemporal variability in the atmosphere can affect the propagation of infrasound, so care must be taken when deploying, analyzing, and interpreting the data. In addition to detecting and monitoring explosive activity, investigations of infrasound records from eruptions help constrain source processes, which in turn enhance syneruptive forecasting capabilities (for example, Fee and others, 2017b; Lyons and others, 2019). The following is a description of the capabilities recommended for real-time monitoring of eruptive phenomena with infrasound. Infrasound is also beginning to be used for tracking hazardous surface flows that occur on volcanoes, including pyroclastic density currents (Ripepe and others, 2010), lahars (Johnson and Palma, 2015), debris flows (Marchetti and others, 2019), snow avalanches (Havens and others, 2014), and lava flows (Patrick and others, 2019). Please refer to the chapter on lahars (this volume; Thelen and others, 2024a) for more information on this application.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Two hundred years of magma transport and storage at Kīlauea Volcano, Hawai'i, 1790-2008

This publication summarizes the evolution of the internal plumbing of Kīlauea Volcano on the Island of Hawaiʻi from the first documented eruption in 1790 to the explosive eruption of March 2008 in Halemaʻumaʻu Crater. For the period before the founding of the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory in 1912, we rely on written observations of eruptive activity, earthquake swarms, and periodic draining of magma from the lava lake present in Kīlauea Caldera. After 1912 the written observations are supplemented by continuous measurement of tilting of the ground at Kīlauea’s summit and by a continuous instrumental record of earthquakes, both measurements made during 1912–56 by a single pendulum seismometer housed on the northeast edge of Kīlauea’s summit. Interpretations become more robust following the installation of seismic and deformation networks in the 1960s. A major advance in the 1990s was the ability to continuously record and telemeter ground deformation to allow its precise correlation with seismic activity before and after eruptions, intrusions, and large earthquakes. We interpret specific events in Kīlauea’s 200- year written history as steps in a broad transition from summit lava-lake activity in Kīlauea Caldera to shield building on the east rift zone. The ability of the magmatic plumbing to deliver magma to eruption is critical to the history of eruption and intrusion. When the rate of magma supply equals the rate of eruption, there is little ground deformation or intrusion. When the magma supply rate is greater than the rate of eruption, then the edifice responds through any or all of summit inflation, intrusion, increased spreading rate, and large flank earthquakes. In Kīlauea’s 200-year history we identify three regions of the volcano in which magma is stored and supplied from below. Source 1 is at 1-km depth or less beneath Kīlauea’s summit and fed Kīlauea’s summit lava lakes throughout most of the 19th century and again from 1907 to 1924. Source 1 was used up in the series of small Halemaʻumaʻu eruptions following the end of lava-lake activity in the summit collapse of 1924. Source 2 is the magma reservoir at a depth of 2–6 km beneath Kīlauea’s summit that has been imaged by seismic and deformation measurements beginning in the 1960s. This source was first identified in the summit collapses of 1922 and 1924. Source 3 is a diffuse volume of magma-permeated rock between 5 and 11 km depth beneath the east rift zone and above the near-horizontal decollement at the base of the Kīlauea edifice. Magma distribution within source 2 has been derived by combining petrologic study of the three chemically uniform summit eruptions of 1952, 1961, and 1967–68 and the east rift eruptions within this interval with both observation of migrating centers of inflation determined from leveling surveys conducted before the 1967–68 eruption and with published models of expected deformation from different source geometries. We adopt a model of concatenated magmatic plugs with nodes beneath the inflation centers. Addition of erupted and intruded volumes of the three summit magma batches yields a liquid magma volume of about 0.2 km3, with dimensions of ~1 km by 1 km by 200 m centered at about 3-km depth within source 2. Following the Halemaʻumaʻu eruption of 1967–68, the chemistry of magma coming into Kīlauea’s summit reservoir has changed frequently, and during the eruption that began in 1983, chemical changes have been subtle and continuous. In this period we interpret changes in chemistry as related to an increase in magma supply resulting from increased partial melting in an expanding mantle source volume. We know from instrumental recording of eruptions since the long Halemaʻumaʻu eruption in 1952 that stress in the edifice accumulates as magma is added underground and is relieved by eruption and by dilation of the rift zones associated with seaward movement (spreading) of Kīlauea’s south flank. During and after the last half of the 20th century, magma transfer to the rift zone has dominantly occurred from source 2. High rates of flank motion have been correlated with high rates of endogenous growth; alternatively, lower rates of motion have characterized periods when the underground magmatic plumbing was being refilled following lateral removal of magma, as well as periods when a more open magmatic plumbing favored continuous eruption. Since at least 1952, source 3 has not drained during deflations, which was apparently not the case before 1924. Triangulation and leveling conducted in 1912, 1921, and 1926, combined with post-1912 tilt measurements, identified a broad regional uplift in 1918–19 and an equally broad collapse in 1924, neither of which has been seen since. We associate these elevation changes with addition or subtraction of magma from all three magma sources, dominantly source 3. We interpret the intrusion beneath the east rift zone during the 1924 collapse to have stabilized the rift zone-south flank relationship, preventing loss of magma from source 3 in subsequent collapses. Rates of seaward spreading were low until 1952, when earthquakes in 1950 and 1951 associated with surges of magma from the hotspot triggered a large offshore south flank earthquake swarm that unlocked the south flank and enabled a greatly increased rate of seaward spreading. Magma supply rates have been derived for the entire period of study. Between 1823 and 1840, magma was supplied from source 1 at a very high rate of more than 0.2 km 3 /yr, which we interpret as recovery from a substantial draining of magma from beneath Kīlauea in 1790. Inferred magma supply rates diminished to one-tenth of that value after 1840, in part because of increase in the activity of Mauna Loa beginning in 1843. Magma supply rates between 1918 and 1924 were about 0.024 km 3 /yr, matching that of the period from 1840 to 1894. During 1950–52 the magma supply rate increased to about 0.06 km 3 /yr, in part because of the great reduction in Mauna Loa activity following its large eruption in June 1950. Following the summit eruption of 1967–68, magma supply increased further to ~0.1 km 3 /yr, and further increases to more than 0.2 km 3 /yr occurred during the east rift eruption that began in 1983. Eruption at Kīlauea’s summit took place in 1952, and eruptive activity steadily increased as increased magma supply also drove increased spreading rates. The inability of magma supply to be accommodated by a combination of eruption and spreading during the 1969–74 Mauna Ulu period stressed Kīlauea’s south flank. The stress was relieved in part by the M7.2 earthquake of 29 November 1975. That earthquake, in turn, dilated Kīlauea’s east rift zone as the south flank moved seaward, producing a favorable condition for continuous east rift eruption, which began in 1983. The 1975 earthquake also resulted in the ability of the south flank to move independently under the influence of gravity, effectively decoupling the spreading rate from changes in the magma supply rate. The continuing increase in magma supply after 1983 was instead manifested in rift dilation, increased intrusion, and ultimately in the launching of a second eruption in Halemaʻumaʻu in March 2008, the first instance in Kīlauea’s recorded history of simultaneous eruption at the summit and on the east rift zone. Kīlauea’s history can be considered in cycles of equilibrium, crisis, and recovery. The approach of a crisis is driven by a magma supply rate that greatly exceeds the capacity of the plumbing to deliver magma to the surface. Crises can be anticipated by inflation measured at Kīlauea’s summit coupled with an increase in overall seismicity, particularly manifest by intrusion and eruption in the southwest sector of the volcano. Unfortunately the nature of the crisis—for example, large earthquake, new eruption, or edifice-changing intrusion—cannot be specified ahead of time. We conclude that Kīlauea’s cycles are controlled by nonlinear dynamics, which underscores the difficulty in predicting eruptions and earthquakes.

Hawai'i↗