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Permanently enhanced dynamic triggering probabilities as evidenced by two M ≥ 7.5 earthquakes

The 2012 M 7.7 Haida Gwaii earthquake radiated waves that likely dynamically triggered the 2013 M 7.5 Craig earthquake, setting two precedents. First, the triggered earthquake is the largest dynamically triggered shear failure event documented to date. Second, the events highlight a connection between geologic structure, sedimentary troughs that act as waveguides, and triggering probability. The Haida Gwaii earthquake excited extraordinarily large waves within and beyond the Queen Charlotte Trough, which propagated well into mainland Alaska and likely triggering the Craig earthquake along the way. Previously, focusing and associated dynamic triggering have been attributed to unpredictable source effects. This case suggests that elevated dynamic triggering probabilities may exist along the many structures where sedimentary troughs overlie major faults, such as subduction zones’ accretionary prisms and transform faults’ axial valleys. Although data are sparse, I find no evidence of accelerating seismic activity in the vicinity of the Craig rupture between it and the Haida Gwaii earthquake.

Alaska, British Columbia

Determination of the occurrence of gold in an unoxidized Carlin-type ore sample using synchrotron radiation

The occurrence of the so-called invisible gold in two unoxidized Carlin-type gold samples from Nevada has been determined using synchrotron X-ray fluorescence (SXRF) analysis at the National Synchrotron Light Source, Brookhaven National Laboratory. A bedded sample from the East ore zone of the Carlin deposit and a breccia sample from Horse Canyon were analyzed. Preliminary results show that gold is found only in the Horse Canyon breccia sample. Experimental details including other X-ray line and diffraction peak interferences, standards used, and minimum detection limits (MDLs) are discussed. Gold, with a MDL range of 0.8 to 3 ppm, was not detected in euhedral pyrite crystals except in the interior porous portion of one grain. Gold was detected in some parts of the matrix. The phase which contains gold has not yet been identified. The highest content of gold so far analyzed is about 40 ppm. There are interesting implications of these new findings. ?? 1987.

Nuclear Instruments and Methods in Physics Researc

Hawai‘i forest review: Synthesizing the ecology, evolution, and conservation of a model system

As the most remote archipelago in the world, the Hawaiian Islands are home to a highly endemic and disharmonic biota that has fascinated biologists for centuries. Forests are the dominant terrestrial biome in Hawai‘i, spanning complex, heterogeneous climates across substrates that vary tremendously in age, soil structure, and nutrient availability. Species richness is low in Hawaiian forests compared to other tropical forests, as a consequence of dispersal limitation from continents and adaptive radiations in only some lineages, and forests are dominated by the widespread Metrosideros species complex. Low species richness provides a relatively tractable model system for studies of community assembly, local adaptation, and species interactions. Moreover, Hawaiian forests provide insights into predicted patterns of evolution on islands, revealing that while some evidence supports “island syndromes,” there are exceptions to them all. For example, Hawaiian plants are not as a whole less defended against herbivores, less dispersible, more conservative in resource use, or more slow-growing than their continental relatives. Clearly, more work is needed to understand the drivers, sources, and constraints on phenotypic variation among Hawaiian species, including both widespread and rare species, and to understand the role of this variation for ecological and evolutionary processes, which will further contribute to conservation of this unique biota. Today, Hawaiian forests are among the most threatened globally. Resource management failures – the proliferation of non-native species in particular – have led to devastating declines in native taxa and resulted in dominance by novel species assemblages. Conservation and restoration of Hawaiian forests now rely on managing threats including climate change, ongoing species introductions, novel pathogens, lost mutualists, and altered ecosystem dynamics through the use of diverse tools and strategies grounded in basic ecological, evolutionary, and biocultural principles. The future of Hawaiian forests thus depends on the synthesis of ecological and evolutionary research, which will continue to inform future conservation and restoration practices.

Hawaii

Wetland tree transpiration modified by river-floodplain connectivity

Hydrologic connectivity provisions water and nutrient subsidies to floodplain wetlands and may be particularly important in floodplains with seasonal water deficits through its effects on soil moisture. In this study, we measured sapflow in 26 trees of two dominant floodplain forest species ( Celtis laevigata and Quercus lyrata ) at two hydrologically distinct sites in the lower White River floodplain in Arkansas, USA. Our objective was to investigate how connectivity-driven water table variations affected water use, an indicator of tree function. Meteorological variables (photosynthetically active radiation and vapor pressure deficit) were the dominant controls over water use at both sites; however, water table variations explained some site differences. At the wetter site, highest sapflow rates were during a late-season overbank flooding event, and no flood stress was apparent. At the drier site, sapflow decreased as the water table receded. The late-season flood pulse that resulted in flooding at the wetter site did not affect the water table at the drier site; accordingly, higher water use was not observed at the drier site. The species generally associated with wetter conditions ( Q. lyrata ) was more positively responsive to the flood pulse. Flood water subsidy lengthened the effective growing season, demonstrating ecological implications of hydrologic connectivity for alleviating water deficits that otherwise reduce function in this humid floodplain wetland.

Arkansas

Predicting light regime controls on primary productivity across CONUS river networks

Solar radiation is a fundamental driver of ecosystem productivity, but widespread estimates of light available for primary producers in rivers are lacking. We developed a model to predict light available for river primary producers and used it to estimate river primary production across the contiguous United States (CONUS). Successively accounting for riparian and water column processes improved predictions of primary production as a function of light. We calculated the ratio of river width to riparian tree height and used this metric to predict whether riparian zones or water column processes most limit productivity for over 2 million reaches. Water column processes limited productivity for 50% of the nation's river length and 80% of its surface area, with variations across ecoregions related to riparian forest cover. Our findings facilitate large-scale predictions of stream and river ecosystem productivity, as well as understanding the processes controlling productivity across networks.

Geophysical Research Letters

Estimating changes in heat energy stored within a column of wetland surface water and factors controlling their importance in the surface energy budget

Changes in heat energy stored within a column of wetland surface water can be a considerable component of the surface energy budget, an attribute that is demonstrated by comparing changes in stored heat energy to net radiation at seven sites in the wetland areas of southern Florida, including the Everglades. The magnitude of changes in stored heat energy approached the magnitude of net radiation more often during the winter dry season than during the summer wet season. Furthermore, the magnitude of changes in stored heat energy in wetland surface water generally decreased as surface energy budgets were upscaled temporally. A new method was developed to estimate changes in stored heat energy that overcomes an important data limitation, namely, the limited spatial and temporal availability of water temperature measurements. The new method is instead based on readily available air temperature measurements and relies on the convolution of air temperature changes with a regression‐defined transfer function to estimate changes in water temperature. The convolution‐computed water temperature changes are used with water depths and heat capacity to estimate changes in stored heat energy within the Everglades wetland areas. These results likely can be adapted to other humid subtropical wetlands characterized by open water, saw grass, and rush vegetation type communities.

Water Resources Research

The effect of bandwidth limitations on the inference of earthquake slip-weakening distance from seismograms

Numerous researchers have obtained estimates of slip-weakening distance, Dc, and fracture energy for recent earthquakes. Dc, is often observed to be a significant fraction of the total slip and tends to correlate with total slip. Although these observations may well be true of real earthquakes, we show that low-pass filtering of strong-motion seismograms can also produce some of these effects in inverted rupture models. We test the accuracy of Dc, estimates by calculating them in low-pass-filtered versions of models A and B of Guatteri and Spudich (2000). Models A and B are two different rupture models for a hypothetical M 6.5 earthquake, and they have nearly identical rupture time, slip, and stress-drop distributions, and nearly identical predicted seismograms, but Dc, for model B is about twice that for model A. By low-pass filtering slip models A and B at 1.0 Hz, we simulate the blurring effects of band-limited waveform inversions on these slip models. At each point on a fault, D???c is defined to be the slip at the time of the peak slip speed at that point. Low-pass filtering the slip models causes an upward bias in Dc inferred from stress-slip curves, and it causes an artificial correlation between D???c and the total slip. Low-pass filtering might also bias fracture energy high and radiated energy low. These biases should be considered when interpreting Dc derived from band-limited slip models of real earthquakes.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America

Measuring erosional and depositional patterns across Comet 67P's imhotep region

Comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko displays a pronounced hemispherical dichotomy in surface morphology, where the southern hemisphere exhibits more erosional features than the northern hemisphere due to receiving much greater solar radiation. Consequently, it is generally assumed that particles are ejected from the southern hemisphere through sublimation and a significant fraction eventually descends as airfall, covering the northern terrains. To investigate this south-to-north material transfer during the comet's perihelion passage, we used photoclinometry to measure material redistribution within its most extensive smooth terrain deposit around the Imhotep region. However, our findings do not align with this expected trend. Instead, we show that local-scale processes substantially impact the erosion and accumulation of material, with one area experiencing net erosion while another nearby region, just a few dozen meters away, sees sediment buildup. Our analysis underscores the complex interplay of processes shaping Comet 67P's surface and likely comets more generally.

Journal of Geophysical Research

Ice ages and the thermal equilibrium of the earth, II

The energy required to sustain midlatitude continental glaciations comes from solar radiation absorbed by the oceans. It is made available through changes in relative amounts of energy lost from the sea surface as net outgoing infrared radiation, sensible heat loss, and latent heat loss. Ice sheets form in response to the initial occurrence of a large perennial snowfield in the subarctic. When such a snowfield forms, it undergoes a drastic reduction in absorbed solar energy because of its high albedo. When the absorbed solar energy cannot supply local infrared radiation losses, the snowfield cools, thus increasing the energy gradient between itself and external, warmer areas that can act as energy sources. Cooling of the snowfield progresses until the energy gradients between the snowfield and external heat sources are sufficient to bring in enough (latent plus sensible) energy to balance the energy budget over the snowfield. Much of the energy is imported as latent heat. The snow that falls and nourishes the ice sheet is a by-product of the process used to satisfy the energy balance requirements of the snowfield. The oceans are the primary energy source for the ice sheet because only the ocean can supply large amounts of latent heat. At first, some of the energy extracted by the ice sheet from the ocean is stored heat, so the ocean cools. As it cools, less energy is lost as net outgoing infrared radiation, and the energy thus saved is then available to augment evaporation. The ratio between sensible and latent heat lost by the ocean is the Bowen ratio; it depends in part on the sea surface temperature. As the sea surface temperature falls during a glaciation, the Bowen ratio increases, until most of the available energy leaves the oceans as sensible, rather than latent heat. The ice sheet starves, and an interglacial period begins. The oscillations between stadial and interstadial intervals within a glaciation are caused by the effects of varying amounts of glacial meltwater entering the oceans as a surface layer that acts to reduce the amount of energy available for glacial nourishment. This causes the ice sheet to melt back, which continues the supply of meltwater until the ice sheet diminishes to a size consistent with the reduced rate of nourishment. The meltwater supply then decreases, the rate of nourishment increases, and a new stadial begins.

Quaternary Research

Classifying mixing regimes in ponds and shallow lakes

Lakes are classified by thermal mixing regimes, with shallow waterbodies historically categorized as continuously mixing systems. Yet, recent studies demonstrate extended summertime stratification in ponds, underscoring the need to reassess thermal classifications for shallow waterbodies. In this study, we examined the summertime thermal dynamics of 34 ponds and shallow lakes across temperate North America and Europe to categorize and identify the drivers of different mixing regimes. We identified three mixing regimes: rarely ( n = 18), intermittently ( n = 10), and often ( n = 6) mixed, where waterbodies mixed an average of 2%, 26%, and 75% of the study period, respectively. Waterbodies in the often mixed category were larger (≥4.17 ha) and stratification weakened with increased wind shear stress, characteristic of “shallow lakes.” In contrast, smaller waterbodies, or “ponds,” mixed less frequently, and stratification strengthened with increased shortwave radiation. Shallow ponds (<0.74 m) mixed intermittently, with daytime stratification often breaking down overnight due to convective cooling. Ponds ≥0.74 m deep were rarely or never mixed, likely due to limited wind energy relative to the larger density gradients associated with slightly deeper water columns. Precipitation events weakened stratification, even causing short-term mixing (hours to days) in some sites. By examining a broad set of shallow waterbodies, we show that mixing regimes are highly sensitive to very small differences in size and depth, with potential implications for ecological and biogeochemical processes. Ultimately, we propose a new framework to characterize the variable mixing regimes of ponds and shallow lakes.

Water Resource Research

UAS-Based Observations of Infrasound Directionality at Stromboli Volcano, Italy

Infrasound (low frequency sound waves) can be used to monitor and characterize volcanic eruptions. However, infrasound sensors are usually placed on the ground, thus providing a limited sampling of the acoustic radiation pattern that can bias source size estimates. We present observations of explosive eruptions from a novel uncrewed aircraft system (UAS)-based infrasound sensor platform that was strategically hovered near the active vents of Stromboli volcano, Italy. We captured eruption infrasound from short-duration explosions and jetting events. While potential vertical directionality was inconclusive for the short-duration explosion, we find that jetting events exhibit vertical sound directionality that was observed with a UAS close to vertical. This directionality would not have been observed using only traditional deployments of ground-based infrasound sensors, but is consistent with jet noise theory. This proof-of-concept study provides unique information that can improve our ability to characterize and quantify the directionality of volcanic eruptions and their associated hazards.

Stromboli Volcano

Earthquakes in the Orozco transform zone: seismicity, source mechanisms, and tectonics

As part of the Rivera Ocean Seismic Experiment, a network of ocean bottom seismometers and hydrophones was deployed in order to determine the seismic characteristics of the Orozco transform fault in the central eastern Pacific. We present hypocentral locations and source mechanisms for 70 earthquakes recorded by this network. All epicenters are within the transform region of the Orozco Fracture Zone and clearly delineate the active plate boundary. About half of the epicenters define a narrow line of activity parallel to the spreading direction and situated along a deep topographic trough that forms the northern boundary of the transform zone (region 1). Most focal depths for these events are very shallow, within 4 km of the seafloor; several well-determined focal depths, however, are as great as 7 km. No shallowing of seismic activity is observed as the rise-transform intersection is approached; to the contrary, the deepest events are within 10 km of the intersection. First motion polarities for most of the earthquakes in region 1 are compatible with right-lateral strike slip faulting along a nearly vertical plane, striking parallel to the spreading direction. Another zone of activity is observed in the central part of the transform (region 2). The apparent horizontal and vertical distribution of activity in this region is more scattered than in the first, and the first motion radiation patterns of these events do not appear to be compatible with any known fault mechanism. Pronounced lateral variations in crustal velocity structure are indicated for the transform region from refraction data and measurements of wave propagation directions. The effect of this lateral heterogeneity on hypocenters and fault plane solutions is evaluated by tracing rays through a three-dimensional velocity grid. While findings for events in region 1 are not significantly affected, in region 2, epicentral mislocations of up to 10 km and azimuthal deflections of up to 45&deg; may result from assuming a laterally homogeneous velocity structure. When corrected for the effects of lateral heterogeneity, the epicenters and fault plane solutions for earthquakes in region 2 are compatible with predominantly normal faulting along a topographic trough trending NW&ndash;SE; the focal depths, however, are poorly constrained. These results suggest an en echelon spreading center or leaky transform regime in the central transform region.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth

A model for the generation of two-dimensional surf beat

A finite difference model predicting group-forced long waves in the nearshore is constructed with two interacting parts: an incident wave model providing time-varying radiation stress gradients across the nearshore, and a long-wave model which solves the equations of motion for the forcing imposed by the incident waves. Both shallow water group-bound long waves and long waves generated by a time-varying breakpoint are simulated. Model-generated time series are used to calculate the cross correlation between wave groups and long waves through the surf zone. The cross-correlation signal first observed by Tucker (1950) is well predicted. For the first time, this signal is decomposed into the contributions from the two mechanisms of leaky mode forcing. Results show that the cross-correlation signal can be explained by bound long waves which are amplified, though strongly modified, through the surf zone before reflection from the shoreline. The breakpoint-forced long waves are added to the bound long waves at a phase of pi/2 and are a secondary contribution owing to their relatively small size.

Journal of Geophysical Research C: Oceans

Magnetic fabric, flow directions, and source area of the Lower Miocene Peach Springs Tuff in Arizona, California, and Nevada

We have used anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility (AMS) to define the flow fabric and possible source area of the Peach Springs Tuff, a widespread rhyolitic ash flow tuff in the Mojave Desert and Great Basin of California, Arizona, and Nevada. The tuff is an important stratigraphic marker from the Colorado Plateau to Barstow, California, a distance of 350 km; however, the location of its source caldera is unknown. Dated at 18.5 Ma by 40 Ar/ 39 Ar, the tuff erupted during the early stages of Miocene extension along the lower Colorado River. The thicker accumulations (>100 m) occur at Kingman, Arizona, and in the Piute Mountains, California, on opposite sides of the Colorado River extensional corridor. Our AMS studies produced well-defined magnetic lineations in 30 of 42 sites distributed throughout the tuff. Typical ratios of the principal AMS axes are 1.01 for the magnetic lineation ( k max / k int ) and 1.02 for the foliation ( k int / k min ); the bulk magnetic susceptibility of the Peach Springs Tuff averages 2.0×10 −3 in the SI unit system. The subhorizontal lineations, which presumably parallel the flow directions, form a pattern radiating outward from the approximate center of the outcrop area. Magnetic foliations define an imbrication that generally dips away from the distal margins and toward the center of the outcrop of the tuff. The lineation and imbrication indicate a source region near the southern tip of Nevada. Defining the best intersection of the AMS lineations required restoration of major extension, strike-slip faulting, and associated tectonic rotation in the disrupted tuff. The optimum intersection of magnetic lineations lies in the southern Black Mountains of Arizona on the eastern side of the Colorado River extensional corridor. No caldera structures are known from that area, but the area contains thick sections of the Peach Springs Tuff above a silicic volcanic center. The caldera may be buried under younger deposits in the Mohave Valley of Arizona. Tertiary granite in the Newberry Mountains may represent a deeper level of the Peach Springs Tuff vent that has been exhumed by detachment faulting.

Journal of Geophysical Research

Rare earth element concentrations in geological and synthetic samples using synchrotron X-ray fluorescence analysis

The concentrations of rare earth elements (REEs) in specific mineral grains from the Bayan Obo ore deposit and synthetic high-silica glass samples have been measured by synchrotron X-ray fluorescence (SXRF) analysis using excitation of the REE K lines between 33 and 63 keV. Because SXRF, a nondestructive analytical technique, has much lower minimum detection limits (MDLs) for REEs, it is an important device that extends the in situ analytical capability of electron probe microanalysis (EPMA). The distribution of trace amounts of REEs in common rock-forming minerals, as well as in REE minerals and minerals having minor quantities of REEs, can be analyzed with SXRF. Synchrotron radiation from a bending magnet and a wiggler source at the National Synchrotron Light Source, Brookhaven National Laboratory, was used to excite the REEs. MDLs of 6 ppm (La) to 26 ppm (Lu) for 3600 s in 60-??m-thick standard samples were obtained with a 25-??m diameter wiggler beam. The MDLs for the light REEs were a factor of 10-20 lower than the MDLs obtained with a bending magnet beam. The SXRF REE concentrations in mineral grains greater than 25 ??m compared favorably with measurements using EPMA. Because EPMA offered REE MDLs as low as several hundred ppm, the comparison was limited to the abundant light REEs (La, Ce, Pr, Nd). For trace values of medium and heavy REEs, the SXRF concentrations were in good agreement with measurements using instrumental neutron activation analysis (INAA), a bulk analysis technique. ?? 1993.

Nuclear Instruments and Methods in Physics Researc

A minimalist probabilistic description of root zone soil water

The probabilistic response of depth‐integrated soil water to given climatic forcing can be described readily using an existing supply‐demand‐storage model. An apparently complex interaction of numerous soil, climate, and plant controls can be reduced to a relatively simple expression for the equilibrium probability density function of soil water as a function of only two dimensionless parameters. These are the index of dryness (ratio of mean potential evaporation to mean precipitation) and a dimensionless storage capacity (active root zone soil water capacity divided by mean storm depth). The first parameter is mainly controlled by climate, with surface albedo playing a subsidiary role in determining net radiation. The second is a composite of soil (through moisture retention characteristics), vegetation (through rooting characteristics), and climate (mean storm depth). This minimalist analysis captures many essential features of a more general probabilistic analysis, but with a considerable reduction in complexity and consequent elucidation of the critical controls on soil water variability. In particular, it is shown that (1) the dependence of mean soil water on the index of dryness approaches a step function in the limit of large soil water capacity; (2) soil water variance is usually maximized when the index of dryness equals 1, and the width of the peak varies inversely with dimensionless storage capacity; (3) soil water has a uniform probability density function when the index of dryness is 1 and the dimensionless storage capacity is large; and (4) the soil water probability density function is bimodal if and only if the index of dryness is <1, but this bimodality is pronounced only for artificially small values of the dimensionless storage capacity.

Water Resources Research

Preslip and cascade processes initiating laboratory stick slip

Recent modeling studies have explored whether earthquakes begin with a large aseismic nucleation process or initiate dynamically from the rapid growth of a smaller instability in a “cascade-up” process. To explore such a case in the laboratory, we study the initiation of dynamic rupture (stick slip) of a smooth saw-cut fault in a 76mm diameter cylindrical granite laboratory sample at 40–120MPa confining pressure. We use a high dynamic range recording system to directly compare the seismic waves radiated during the stick-slip event to those radiated from tiny (M _6) discrete seismic events, commonly known as acoustic emissions (AEs), that occur in the seconds prior to each large stick slip. The seismic moments, focal mechanisms, locations, and timing of the AEs all contribute to our understanding of their mechanics and provide us with information about the stick-slip nucleation process. In a sequence of 10 stick slips, the first few microseconds of the signals recorded from stick-slip instabilities are nearly indistinguishable from those of premonitory AEs. In this sense, it appears that each stick slip begins as an AE event that rapidly (~20 μs) grows about 2 orders of magnitude in linear dimension and ruptures the entire 150mm length of the simulated fault. We also measure accelerating fault slip in the final seconds before stick slip. We estimate that this slip is at least 98% aseismic and that it both weakens the fault and produces AEs that will eventually cascade-up to initiate the larger dynamic rupture.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth

Comparison of Penman-Monteith, Shuttleworth-Wallace, and modified Priestley-Taylor evapotranspiration models for wildland vegetation in semiarid rangeland

Eddy correlation measurements of sensible and latent heat flux are used with measurements of net radiation, soil heat flux, and other micrometeorological variables to develop the Penman-Monteith, Shuttleworth-Wallace, and modified Priestley-Taylor evapotranspiration models for use in a sparsely vegetated, semiarid rangeland. The Penman-Monteith model, a one-component model designed for use with dense crops, is not sufficiently accurate ( r 2 = 0.56 for hourly data and r 2 = 0.60 for daily data). The Shuttleworth-Wallace model, a two-component logical extension of the Penman-Monteith model for use with sparse crops, performs significantly better ( r 2 = 0.78 for hourly data and r 2 = 0.85 for daily data). The modified Priestley-Taylor model, a one-component simplified form of the Penman potential evapotranspiration model, surprisingly performs as well as the Shuttle worth-Wallace model. The rigorous Shuttleworth-Wallace model predicts that about one quarter of the vapor flux to the atmosphere is from bare-soil evaporation. Further, during daylight hours, the small leaves are sinks for sensible heat produced at the hot soil surface.

Water Resources Research