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At least 199 records · Page 11Linked to original sources
USGS2017

Using gene transcription to assess ecological and anthropological stressors in brown bears

Increasingly, population- and ecosystem-level health assessments are performed using sophisticated molecular tools. Advances in molecular technology enable the identification of synergistic effects of multiple stressors on the individual physiology of different species. Brown bears ( Ursus arctos ) are an apex predator; thus, they are ideal candidates for detecting potentially ecosystem-level systemic perturbations using molecular-based tools. We used gene transcription to analyze 130 brown bear samples from three National Parks and Preserves in Alaska. Although the populations we studied are apparently stable in abundance and exist within protected and intact environments, differences in transcript profiles were noted. The most prevalent differences were among locations. The transcript patterns among groups reflect the influence of environmental factors, such as nutritional status, disease, and xenobiotic exposure. However, these profiles also likely represent baselines for each unique environment by which future measures can be made to identify early indication of population-level changes due to, for example, increasing Arctic temperatures. Some of those environmental changes are predicted to be potentially positive for brown bears, but other effects such as the manifestation of disease or indirect effects of oceanic acidification may produce negative impacts.

Alaska↗
USGS2017

Climate change as a long-term stressor for the fisheries of the Laurentian Great Lakes of North America

The Laurentian Great Lakes of North America provide valuable ecosystem services, including fisheries, to the surrounding population. Given the prevalence of other anthropogenic stressors that have historically affected the fisheries of the Great Lakes (e.g., eutrophication, invasive species, overfishing), climate change is often viewed as a long-term stressor and, subsequently, may not always be prioritized by managers and researchers. However, climate change has the potential to negatively affect fish and fisheries in the Great Lakes through its influence on habitat. In this paper, we (1) summarize projected changes in climate and fish habitat in the Great Lakes; (2) summarize fish responses to climate change in the Great Lakes; (3) describe key interactions between climate change and other stressors relevant to Great Lakes fish, and (4) summarize how climate change can be incorporated into fisheries management. In general, fish habitat is projected to be characterized by warmer temperatures throughout the water column, less ice cover, longer periods of stratification, and more frequent and widespread periods of bottom hypoxia in productive areas of the Great Lakes. Based solely on thermal habitat, fish populations theoretically could experience prolonged optimal growth environment within a changing climate, however, models that assess physical habitat influences at specific life stages convey a more complex picture. Looking at specific interactions with other stressors, climate change may exacerbate the negative impacts of both eutrophication and invasive species for fish habitat in the Great Lakes. Although expanding monitoring and research to consider climate change interactions with currently studied stressors, may offer managers the best opportunity to keep the valuable Great Lakes fisheries sustainable, this expansion is globally applicable for large lake ecosystem dealing with multiple stressors in the face of continued human-driven changes.

Great Lakes↗
USGS2001

How are climate and marine biological outbreaks functionally linked?

Since the mid-1970s, large-scale episodic events such as disease epidemics, mass mortalities, harmful algal blooms and other population explosions have been occurring in marine environments at an historically unprecedented rate. The variety of organisms involved (host, pathogens and other opportunists) and the absolute number of episodes have also increased during this period. Are these changes coincidental? Between 1972 and 1976, a global climate regime shift took place, and it is manifest most clearly by a change in strength of the North Pacific and North Atlantic pressure systems. Consequences of this regime shift are: (1) prolonged drought conditions in the Sahel region of Africa; (2) increased dust supply to the global atmosphere, by a factor of approximately four; (3) increased easterly trade winds across the Atlantic; (4) increased eolian transport of dust to the Atlantic and Caribbean basins; and (5) increased deposition of iron-rich eolian dust to typically iron-poor marine regions. On the basis of well-documented climate and dust observations and the widely accepted increase in marine outbreak rates, this paper proposes that the increased iron supply has altered the micronutrient factors limiting growth of opportunistic organisms and virulence of pathogenic microbes, particularly in macronutrient-rich coastal systems.

Hydrobiologia↗
USGS2014

Genetic variation in bacterial kidney disease (BKD) susceptibility in Lake Michigan Chinook Salmon and its progenitor population from the Puget Sound

Mass mortality events in wild fish due to infectious diseases are troubling, especially given the potential for long-term, population-level consequences. Evolutionary theory predicts that populations with sufficient genetic variation will adapt in response to pathogen pressure. Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha were introduced into Lake Michigan in the late 1960s from a Washington State hatchery population. In the late 1980s, collapse of the forage base and nutritional stress in Lake Michigan were thought to contribute to die-offs of Chinook Salmon due to bacterial kidney disease (BKD). Previously, we demonstrated that Lake Michigan Chinook Salmon from a Wisconsin hatchery have greater survival following BKD challenge relative to their progenitor population. Here, we evaluated whether the phenotypic divergence of these populations in BKD susceptibility was due to selection rather than genetic drift. Comparison of the overall magnitude of quantitative trait to neutral marker divergence between the populations suggested selection had occurred but a direct test of quantitative trait divergence was not significant, preventing the rejection of the null hypothesis of differentiation through genetic drift. Estimates of phenotypic variation (V P ), additive genetic variation (V A ) and narrow-sense heritability (h 2 ) were consistently higher in the Wisconsin relative to the Washington population. If selection had acted on the Wisconsin population there was no evidence of a concomitant loss of genetic variation in BKD susceptibility. The Renibacterium salmoninarum exposures were conducted at both 14°C and 9°C; the warmer temperature accelerated time to death in both populations and there was no evidence of phenotypic plasticity or a genotype-by-environment (G × E) interaction. High h 2 estimates for BKD susceptibility in the Wisconsin population, combined with a lack of phenotypic plasticity, predicts that future adaptive gains in BKD resistance are still possible and that these adaptive gains would be stable under the temperature range evaluated here.

Washington;Wisconsin↗
USGS2018

Post-breeding movement and habitat use by wood frogs along an Arctic–Subarctic ecotone

By altering essential micro- and macrohabitat conditions for many organisms, climate change is already causing disproportionately greater impacts on Arctic and Subarctic ecosystems. Yet there is a lack of basic information about many species in northern latitudes, including amphibians. We used radio telemetry to study the post-breeding movements and habitat use of wood frogs ( Rana [= Lithobates ] sylvatica ) in the Hudson Bay Lowlands near Churchill, Manitoba, Canada. We tracked fifty-seven frogs (thirty-five males, twenty-two females; mean duration = 16.8 d) from three wetlands during the summers of 2015 and 2016. The three wetlands were representative of the Arctic–Subarctic ecotone, with each wetland surrounded by different proportions of boreal forest and tundra. Our results indicate that at the landscape scale, movement distances increased with temperature, and all frogs spent more time in the tundra habitat than in boreal forests, relative to the availability of each habitat type. At the microhabitat scale (1 m 2 plots), frogs selected areas with greater amounts of standing water, sedge, and shrubs. These results provide information on terrestrial movement patterns and critical habitat data for northern populations of wood frogs in a Subarctic environment, which will aid in understanding how climate change will affect amphibians in this rapidly changing ecosystem.

Manitoba↗
USGS2005

Are all prey created equal? A review and synthesis of differential predation on prey in substandard condition

Our understanding of predator-prey interactions in fishes has been influenced largely by research assuming that the condition of the participants is normal. However, fish populations today often reside in anthropogenically altered environments and are subjected to many kinds of stressors, which may reduce their ecological performance by adversely affecting their morphology, physiology, or behaviour. One consequence is that either the predator or prey, or both, may be in a substandard condition at the time of an interaction. We reviewed the literature on predator-prey interactions in fishes where substandard prey were used as experimental groups. Although most of this research indicates that such prey are significantly more vulnerable to predation, prey condition has rarely been considered in ecological theory regarding predator-prey interactions. The causal mechanisms for increased vulnerability of substandard prey to predation include a failure to detect predators, lapses in decision-making, poor fast-start performance, inability to shoal effectively, and increased prey conspicuousness. Despite some problems associated with empirical predator-prey studies using substandard prey, their results can have theoretical and applied uses, such as in ecological modelling or justification of corrective measures to be implemented in the wild. There is a need for more corroborative field experimentation, a better understanding of the causal mechanisms behind differential predation, and increased incorporation of prey condition into the research of predator-prey modellers and theoreticians. If the concept of prey condition is considered in predator-prey interactions, our understanding of how such interactions influence the structure and dynamics of fish communities is likely to change, which should prove beneficial to aquatic ecosystems.

Journal of Fish Biology↗
USGS2017

Summer and winter space use and home range characteristics of Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) in eastern North America

Movement behavior and its relationship to habitat provide critical information toward understanding the effects of changing environments on birds. The eastern North American population of Golden Eagles ( Aquila chrysaetos ) is a genetically distinct and small population of conservation concern. To evaluate the potential responses of this population to changing landscapes, we calculated the home range and core area sizes of 52 eagles of 6 age–sex classes during the summer and winter seasons. Variability in range size was related to variation in topography and open cover, and to age and sex. In summer, eagle ranges that were smaller had higher proportions of ridge tops and open cover and had greater topographic roughness than did larger ranges. In winter, smaller ranges had higher proportions of ridge tops, hillsides and cliffs, and open cover than did larger ranges. All age and sex classes responded similarly to topography and open cover in both seasons. Not surprisingly, adult eagles occupied the smallest ranges in both seasons. Young birds used larger ranges than adults, and subadults in summer used the largest ranges (>9,000 km 2 ). Eastern adult home ranges in summer were 2–10 times larger than those reported for other populations in any season. Golden Eagles in eastern North America may need to compensate for generally lower-quality habitat in the region by using larger ranges that support access to adequate quantities of resources (prey, updrafts, and nesting, perching, and roosting sites) associated with open cover and diverse topography. Our results suggest that climate change–induced afforestation on the breeding grounds and ongoing land cover change from timber harvest and energy development on the wintering grounds may affect the amount of suitable habitat for Golden Eagles in eastern North America.

The Condor↗
USGS1999

Evaluation of waterfowl conservation under the North American Waterfowl Management Plan

In 1986, the North American Waterfowl Management Plan (Plan) was signed by the U.S. Secretary of the Interior and the Canadian Minister of the Environment, with a goal of restoring waterfowl populations to levels of the 1970s via habitat conservation. Central to the Plan is a set of ambitious continental population goals and habitat objectives to be met through broad-based public-private partnerships. Inadequate attention has been paid to evaluation of the Plan, despite the fact that Plan delivery can be enhanced via improved understanding of the effects of habitat conservation on waterfowl population dynamics. Several factors confound the effort to evaluate the Plan at regional and continental levels, including difficulties in accounting for national land-use policies. To date, evaluation has proceeded along 2 avenues of investigation: (1) the study of conservation actions at local-regional levels, and (2) statistical assessment of Plan assumptions. Among other things, results thus far indicate duck production from the U.S. Northern Great Plains has increased in recent years, and intensive treatments such as planted cover have had positive effects on local reproductive success. Many duck species currently exceed Plan population goals; however, population levels of some species, most notably northern pintail (Anas acuta), remain below expectations based on historic relationships with precipitation. Management implications include the need for ongoing and more carefully prioritized conservation efforts, broader partnerships, and improved understanding of the linkages between habitats and biological processes. Delivery of the Plan must involve collaboration among the Continental Evaluation Team, joint Venture partners, the Adaptive Management and Assessment Team of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, and other conservation groups. Although the challenges and projected costs of Plan conservation efforts are considerable, the long-term potential benefits to waterfowl conservation are great.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗
USGS2023

CGS: Coupled growth and survival model with cohort fairness

Fish modeling in complex environments is critical for understanding drivers of population dynamics in aquatic systems. This paper proposes a Bayesian network method for modeling fish survival and growth over multiple connected rivers. Traditional fish survival models capture the effect of multiple environmental drivers (e.g., stream temperature, stream flow) by adding different variables, which increases model complexity and results in very long and impractical run times (i.e., weeks). We propose a coupled survival-growth model that leverages the observations from both sources simultaneously. It also integrates the Bayesian process into the neural network model to efficiently capture complex variable relationships in the system while also conforming to known survival processes used in existing fish models. To further reduce the performance disparity of fish body length across cohorts, we propose two approaches for enforcing fairness by the adjustment of training priorities and data augmentation. The results based on a real-world fish dataset collected in Massachusetts, US demonstrate that the proposed method can greatly improve prediction accuracy in modeling survival and body length compared to independent models on survival and growth, and effectively reduce the performance disparity across cohorts. The fish growth and movement patterns discovered by the proposed model are also consistent with prior studies in the same region, while vastly reducing run times and memory requirements.

Conference Paper↗
USGS1996

USGS response to an urban earthquake, Northridge '94

The urban centers of our Nation provide our people with seemingly unlimited employment, social, and cultural opportunities as a result of the complex interactions of a diverse population embedded in an highly-engineered environment. Catastrophic events in one or more of the natural earth systems which underlie or envelop urban environment can have radical effects on the integrity and survivability of that environment. Earthquakes have for centuries been the source of cataclysmic events on cities throughout the world. Unlike many other earth processes, the effects of major earthquakes transcend all political, social, and geomorphic boundaries and can have decided impact on cities tens to hundreds of kilometers from the epicenter. In modern cities, where buildings, transportation corridors, and lifelines are complexly interrelated, the life, economic, and social vulnerabilities in the face of a major earthquake can be particularly acute. The 1994 Northridge Earthquake was a major test for parts of what many consider the most earthquake-prepared and best-engineered metropolitan region in the United States. While the combined efforts of concerned professionals at all levels of government, academia, and the private sector have produced significant advances in our knowledge of the causes and potential effects of earthquakes, and of ways to reduce their impact, it remains unfortunately true that actual earthquakes provide important opportunities to test those advances in our knowledge. In the hours and days following the Northridge Earthquake, the four Federal member agencies of the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP), the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), the National Institute for Standards and Technology (NIST), the National Science Foundation (NSF), and the United States Geological Survey (USGS) laid out a detailed plan for collecting, analyzing, archiving, and reporting information that would benefit the Nation in future earthquake hazards reduction efforts. Congress provided a special appropriation to FEMA to carry out this plan and FEMA distributed those funds to the four NEHRP agencies. The USGS was responsible for conducting geophysical and geological investigations in support of the NEHRP Post-earthquake Study. For the past 2 years, the USGS has rigorously pursued over 40 tasks focused on the USGS Northridge Earthquake Mission. This document is a summary report of the USGS findings; additional technical reports on specific USGS tasks are appearing in various scientific journals and USGS publications.

California↗
USGS2026

Agency approach to allocation of human capital and program composition for human-marine mammal interaction management in the United States

Introduction: Marine mammals have served important and diverse roles throughout human history. Once exploited to near extinction, many species in the United States (U.S.) have recovered dramatically under the Marine Mammal Protection Act (MMPA). The U.S. National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) has jurisdiction to administer the MMPA for cetaceans and most pinnipeds. While most take is now prohibited, NMFS still dedicates significant time and resources to protecting and conserving marine mammals. As human populations continue to grow and exploit marine environments, opportunities for human-marine mammal interactions (HMMI) have increased. Resources may fail to keep up with growing needs for conservation investments, so that many agencies struggle to adequately meet social and legal requirements. Methods: This study evaluated NMFS’ approach to addressing HMMI through a mixed-methods (semi-structured interviews, quantitative questionnaire, and facilitated workshops) expert elicitation analysis of resource allocation (i.e., staff time) and priorities of NMFS Science Center (SC) and Regional Office (RO) staff across five geographic regions to understand how employee time is allocated, the degree to which employee time allocation is aligned with self-reported job descriptions, and employee perceptions of actions or investments which would improve their ability to mitigate HMMI. Results and Discussion: SC staff reported spending more time on Biological and Administrative tasks , while RO staff allocated more time to Policy, Social science , and Outreach tasks . SC employees spent less time on Biological tasks than specified by their perceived job descriptions, suggesting resource constraints. Participants identified Biological research and monitoring as top priorities, followed by Policy tasks . Identified actions included increasing research capacity, enhancing enforcement, expanding social science expertise, and improving outreach programs. The study reveals mismatches between mandated activities and available resources, suggesting strategic reallocation or increased funding may benefit the agency in effectively addressing growing HMMI challenges.

Frontiers in Marine Science↗
USGS2023

Assessing global elevation models for mapping the low elevation coastal zone

Elevation data are critical for assessments of coastal hazards, including sea-level rise (SLR), flooding, storm surge, tsunami impacts, and wave run-up. Previous research has demonstrated that the quality of data used in elevation-based hazard assessments must be well documented and applied properly to assess potential impacts. Global digital elevation models (DEMs), at 30- to 90-meter resolution, have been used extensively to map and characterize coastal environments and the at-risk resources (population and built structures) contained therein. The inherent absolute vertical accuracy of global DEMs precludes their usefulness for assessing exposure to fine increments (< 1 meter) of coastal inundation at high confidence levels. However, global DEMs are highly suitable for delineation of the global low elevation coastal zone (LECZ) (elevation < 10 meters). An accuracy evaluation of global DEMs over the United States has been conducted to quantify their performance in correctly mapping the LECZ, namely in terms of vertical uncertainty and corresponding confidence levels for several representations of the coastal zone. The evaluation approach includes comparison of the DEMs with an extensive set of high-accuracy geodetic control points as the independent reference data covering a variety of coastal relief settings. The 1-arc-second (30-meter) global DEMs evaluated include ALOS World 3D, ASTER GDEM, Copernicus, FABDEM, and NASADEM, and the 3-arc-second (90-meter) global DEMs include CoastalDEM, Copernicus, MERIT, and TanDEM-X. Additionally, lower resolution (1-kilometer) global DEMs were also assessed, namely the Global Lidar Lowland DTM (derived from ICESat-2) and the GEDI 1-km DEM. The results of the accuracy characterization show that FABDEM performs the best (minimal vertical bias and lowest vertical root mean square error) for high-confidence mapping of the LECZ. Among 90-m DEMs, CoastalDEM performs best, although the differences across datasets are minimal. The results also demonstrate the importance of rigorously accounting for elevation uncertainty when applying global DEMs for coastal mapping applications.

Conference Paper↗
USGS1999

Etologia aplicada al manejo de especies amenazadas: el caso del turon de patas negras (Mustela nigripes)

Los turones de patas negras (Mustela nigripes) son considerados como uno de los mamíferos más amenazados del mundo. La última población silvestre fue descubierta en 1981 en Meeteetse, Wyoming, y en 1985 se extinguió debido a una epidemia de moquillo canino en combinacion con una epidemia de peste bubónica. Antes de su extinción total en la naturaleza, se lograron capturar 18 individuos para comenzar un programa de cría. La cría en cautividad se ha llevado a cabo con éxito y, durante los últimos 11 años han nacido más de 2600 turones en centros de propagación. Desde 1991, aproximadamente 870 turones han sido reintroducidos en 5 áreas de distribución histórica original repartidas entre los estados de Wyoming, Montana, Dakota del Sur, y Arizona. La investigación científica ha sido, y continúa siendo, una herramienta crítica para dirigir el Programa de Recuperación. Los estudios etológicos llevados a cabo tanto con turones cautivos como con turones reintroducidos han demostrado que un entorno cautivo naturalístico, especialmente durante las etapas iniciales del desarrollo de estos carnívoros, ayuda a desarrollar conductas necesarias para la supervivencia en la naturaleza. Dicho entorno ayuda a los turones a refinar sus técnicas de caza, a reconocer las madrigueras de los perritos de la pradera como un refugio donde establecerse y como una vía de escape frente al acoso de depredadores, y a mejorar su forma física. A raíz de estos estudios, se han readaptado las técnicas de manejo de turones cautivos para ayudar a llevar a cabo la recuperación de esta especie de un modo más eficaz y rentable. Black-footed ferrets are considered one of the world's most endangered mammals. The last wild population was discovered in 1981 in Meteetsee, Wyoming, and, in 1985 it collapsed due to an epizootic of canine distemper in combination with sylvatic plague. Prior to the extinction of the last remnant population, 18 wild black-footed ferrets were captured to initiate captive propagation efforts. Captive breeding has been successful and, during the last 11 years, more than 2600 black-footed ferrets have been born in captive breeding centers. Since 1991, approximately 870 ferrets have been reintroduced in 5 areas located within the ferret's original geographic distribution, including sites in Wyoming, Montana, South Dakota, and Arizona. Scientific research has been, and continues to be, a critical tool to direct recovery efforts. Studies in applied ethology conducted on captive and reintroduced ferret populations have demonstrated that a naturalistic captive environment, particularly during early developmental periods, enhances the expression of behaviors necessary for survival in nature. Ferrets raised in a naturalistic environment develop better predatory skills, are able to recognize prairie dog burrows as a home and shelter from predators, and are more physically fit. Results from these studies have been adapted into management strategies to help implement a more cost-effective road to black-footed ferret recovery.

Etologia↗
USGS2019

Supporting the development and use of native plant materials for restoration on the Colorado Plateau (Fiscal Year 18 Report)

Introduction A primary focus of the Colorado Plateau Native Plant Program (CPNPP) is to identify and develop appropriate native plant materials (NPMs) for current and future restoration projects. Multiple efforts have characterized the myriad challenges inherent in providing appropriate seed resources to enable effective, widespread restoration and identified a broad suite of research activities to provide the information necessary to overcome those challenges (e.g., Plant Conservation Alliance 2015; Breed et al. 2018). Many of the most complex information needs relate to identifying the appropriate plant species and populations that can successfully establish in dryland environments, like the Colorado Plateau, where low and highly variable precipitation is standard. Providing this information requires synergistic research efforts in which results from earlier investigations inform the design of subsequent investigations. Southwest Biological Science Center’s (SBSC’s) research activities in FY18 followed the FY18 Statement of Work (“Research supporting native plant materials development for the Colorado Plateau Native Plant Program, FY18”) to support a research framework that is continually adapting based on the needs of the restoration community and results from previous investigations; the long-term research framework is now outlined in the 2019-2023 5-Year Research Strategy (discussed below; hereafter referred to as the 5-Year Research Strategy). This research framework provides support for the National Seed Strategy for Rehabilitation and Restoration (Plant Conservation Alliance, 2015), Department of Interior Secretarial Order #3347 (Conservation Stewardship and Outdoor Recreation), and Bureau of Land Management Leadership Priority #1 (Create a conservation stewardship legacy second only to Teddy Roosevelt). The overall focus of activities in FY18 centered on landscape genetics and planning for common garden and other research projects. These activities were supported by two biological technicians that were hired and trained by Dr. Rob Massatti and Dr. Daniel Winkler. Many of the field-related activities, including plant trait measurement and seed/tissue collecting, were assigned to these technicians, which freed Dr. Massatti to work on other research objectives, including the time-consuming activities of processing and analyzing genetic data. A major challenge to field work in FY18 was the drought conditions that pervaded the Plateau during the spring field season. Due to low winter and spring precipitation, many plant communities did not green up in the spring, which prevented the biological technicians from collecting plant trait data, tissues samples, and seeds in many areas. To cope with the dry conditions, the technicians searched sites across a wider range of environmental space and considered a broader suite of species from which to collect data (i.e., species that may be included in research projects in future years). Monsoonal precipitation starting in July supported a late summer/fall field season and allowed the technicians to follow a more normal work plan. While Dr. Massatti was the only scientist supported by the SBSC-CPNPP agreement in FY18, other scientists, including Drs. John Bradford, Seth Munson, Mike Duniway, Sasha Reed, Daniel Winkler, and Jayne Belnap, spent a considerable amount of time discussing individual projects and the newly developed 5-Year Research Strategy. Some of these discussions resulted in a publication by Dr. Winkler, in addition to a large group of researchers, practitioners, and others who work on the Colorado Plateau, concerning the restoration challenges facing the Plateau into the future and the types of efforts that may support successful restoration (Winkler et al., 2018).

Colorado↗
USGS2026

Modeling the temperature-mediated link between demography and biomass in ectotherms

Population models can forecast the effects of environmental change, disturbance, and management decisions on populations of interest. Most population models focus on abundance of individuals, but biomass may be a more relevant quantity at the community or ecosystem scale, especially when investigating interaction of multiple stressors and cross-ecosystem energy flows. We developed a stage-structured population model that integrates a temperature-mediated tradeoff between development rate and final body size of invertebrates, allowing projection of both population size and standing stock biomass in ecosystems that experience disturbances. We parameterized the model for four aquatic invertebrate life-history types spanning a range of lifespan and susceptibility to disturbance. We observed several emergent properties typical of invertebrate populations but not explicitly included in the model, including self-organization of cohort structure under seasonal environments, a tradeoff between lifespan duration and rate of post-disturbance population recovery, and chaotic population dynamics under high growth rates. Sensitivity analysis revealed that although elevated mean temperature increased population size, total population biomass remained unchanged or even decreased due to declining individual biomass, which has implications for ecosystem processes under a changing climate. The seasonal timing of disturbance showed a strong interaction with temperature regime, with summer versus winter pulse disturbances affecting biomass and abundance in characteristically different ways. Linking invertebrate abundance and biomass dynamics to abiotic drivers through this time-varying matrix population model reveals how life-history shapes aquatic invertebrate response to shifting seasons, temperatures, and disturbance, which is key to understanding the impacts of climate change on aquatic ecosystems.

Ecological Modelling↗
USGS2010

Interpolating a consumption variable for scaling and generalizing potential population pressure on urbanizing natural areas

Measures of population pressure, referring in general to the stress upon the environment by human consumption of resources, are imperative for environmental sustainability studies and management. Development based on resource consumption is the predominant factor of population pressure. This paper presents a spatial model of population pressure by linking consumption associated with regional urbanism and ecosystem services. Maps representing relative geographic degree and extent of natural resource consumption and degree and extent of impacts on surrounding areas are new, and this research represents the theoretical research toward this goal. With development, such maps offer a visualization tool for planners of various services, amenities for people, and conservation planning for ecologist. Urbanization is commonly generalized by census numbers or impervious surface area. The potential geographical extent of urbanism encompasses the environmental resources of the surrounding region that sustain cities. This extent is interpolated using kriging of a variable based on population wealth data from the U.S. Census Bureau. When overlayed with land-use/land-cover data, the results indicate that the greatest estimates of population pressure fall within mixed forest areas. Mixed forest areas result from the spread of cedar woods in previously disturbed areas where further disturbance is then suppressed. Low density areas, such as suburbanization and abandoned farmland are characteristic of mixed forest areas.

Missouri↗
USGS2011

Evaluating the demographic buffering hypothesis with vital rates estimated for Weddell seals from 30years of mark-recapture data

1. Life‐history theory predicts that those vital rates that make larger contributions to population growth rate ought to be more strongly buffered against environmental variability than are those that are less important. Despite the importance of the theory for predicting demographic responses to changes in the environment, it is not yet known how pervasive demographic buffering is in animal populations because the validity of most existing studies has been called into question because of methodological deficiencies. 2. We tested for demographic buffering in the southern‐most breeding mammal population in the world using data collected from 5558 known‐age female Weddell seals over 30 years. We first estimated all vital rates simultaneously with mark–recapture analysis and then estimated process variance and covariance in those rates using a hierarchical Bayesian approach. We next calculated the population growth rate’s sensitivity to changes in each of the vital rates and tested for evidence of demographic buffering by comparing properly scaled values of sensitivity and process variance in vital rates. 3. We found evidence of positive process covariance between vital rates, which indicates that all vital rates are affected in the same direction by changes in annual environment. Despite the positive correlations, we found strong evidence that demographic buffering occurred through reductions in variation in the vital rates to which population growth rate was most sensitive. Process variation in vital rates was inversely related to sensitivity measures such that variation was greatest in breeding probabilities, intermediate for survival rates of young animals and lowest for survival rates of older animals. 4. Our work contributes to a small but growing set of studies that have used rigorous methods on long‐term, detailed data to investigate demographic responses to environmental variation. The information from these studies improves our understanding of life‐history evolution in stochastic environments and provides useful information for predicting population responses to future environmental change. Our results for an Antarctic apex predator also provide useful baselines from a marine ecosystem when its top‐ and middle‐trophic levels were not substantially impacted by human activity.

Journal of Animal Ecology↗
USGS2017

Predicting intensity of white-tailed deer herbivory in the Central Appalachian Mountains

In eastern North America, white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ) can have profound influences on forest biodiversity and forest successional processes. Moderate to high deer populations in the central Appalachians have resulted in lower forest biodiversity. Legacy effects in some areas persist even following deer population reductions or declines. This has prompted managers to consider deer population management goals in light of policies designed to support conservation of biodiversity and forest regeneration while continuing to support ample recreational hunting opportunities. However, despite known relationships between herbivory intensity and biodiversity impact, little information exists on the predictability of herbivory intensity across the varied and spatially diverse habitat conditions of the central Appalachians. We examined the predictability of browsing rates across central Appalachian landscapes at four environmental scales: vegetative community characteristics, physical environment, habitat configuration, and local human and deer population demographics. In an information - theoretic approach, we found that a model fitting the number of stems browsed relative to local vegetation characteristics received most (62%) of the overall support of all tested models assessing herbivory impact. Our data suggest that deer herbivory responded most predictably to differences in vegetation quantity and type. No other spatial factors or demographic factors consistently affected browsing intensity. Because herbivory, vegetation communities, and productivity vary spatially, we suggest that effective broad-scale herbivory impact assessment should include spatially-balanced vegetation monitoring that accounts for regional differences in deer forage preference. Effective monitoring is necessary to avoid biodiversity impacts and deleterious changes in vegetation community composition that are difficult to reverse and/or may not be detected using traditional deer-density based management goals.

Appalachian Mountains↗