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Estimates of annual survival, growth, and recruitment of a white-tailed ptarmigan population in Colorado over 43 years

Long-term datasets for high-elevation species are rare, and considerable uncertainty exists in understanding how high-elevation populations have responded to recent climate warming. We present estimates of demographic vital rates from a 43-year population study of white-tailed ptarmigan ( Lagopus leucura ), a species endemic to alpine habitats in western North America. We used capture-recapture models to estimate annual rates of apparent survival, population growth, and recruitment for breeding-age ptarmigan, and we fit winter weather covariates to models in an attempt to explain annual variation. There were no trends in survival over the study period but there was strong support for age and sex effects. The average rate of annual growth suggests a relatively stable breeding-age population ( λ ¯ "> λ ¯ = 1.036), but there was considerable variation between years for both population growth and recruitment rates. Winter weather covariates only explained a small amount of variation in female survival and were not an important predictor of male survival. Cumulative winter precipitation was found to have a quadratic effect on female survival, with survival being highest during years of average precipitation. Cumulative winter precipitation was positively correlated with population growth and recruitment rates, although this covariate only explained a small amount of annual variation in these rates and there was considerable uncertainty among the models tested. Our results provide evidence for an alpine-endemic population that has not experienced extirpation or drastic declines. However, more information is needed to understand risks and vulnerabilities of warming effects on juveniles as our analysis was confined to determination of vital rates for breeding-age birds.

Colorado

Changes in abundance and spatial distribution of geese molting near Teshekpuk Lake, Alaska: Interspecific competition or ecological change?

Goose populations molting in the Teshekpuk Lake Special Area of the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska have changed in size and distribution over the past 30 years. Black brant (Branta bernicla nigricans) are relatively stable in numbers but are shifting from large, inland lakes to salt marshes. Concurrently, populations of greater white-fronted geese (Anser albifrons frontalis) have increased seven fold. Populations of Canada geese (Branta canadensis and/or B. hutchinsii) are stable with little indication of distributional shifts. The lesser snow goose (Anser caerulescens caerulescens) population is proportionally small, but increasing rapidly. Coastline erosion of the Beaufort Sea has altered tundra habitats by allowing saltwater intrusion, which has resulted in shifts in composition of forage plant species. We propose two alternative hypotheses for the observed shift in black brant distribution. Ecological change may have altered optimal foraging habitats for molting birds, or alternatively, interspecific competition between black brant and greater white-fronted geese may be excluding black brant from preferred habitats. Regardless of the causative mechanism, the observed shifts in species distributions are an important consideration for future resource planning. ?? 2007 Springer-Verlag.

Polar Biology

Hierarchical modeling and inference in ecology: The analysis of data from populations, metapopulations and communities

A guide to data collection, modeling and inference strategies for biological survey data using Bayesian and classical statistical methods. This book describes a general and flexible framework for modeling and inference in ecological systems based on hierarchical models, with a strict focus on the use of probability models and parametric inference. Hierarchical models represent a paradigm shift in the application of statistics to ecological inference problems because they combine explicit models of ecological system structure or dynamics with models of how ecological systems are observed. The principles of hierarchical modeling are developed and applied to problems in population, metapopulation, community, and metacommunity systems. The book provides the first synthetic treatment of many recent methodological advances in ecological modeling and unifies disparate methods and procedures. The authors apply principles of hierarchical modeling to ecological problems, including * occurrence or occupancy models for estimating species distribution * abundance models based on many sampling protocols, including distance sampling * capture-recapture models with individual effects * spatial capture-recapture models based on camera trapping and related methods * population and metapopulation dynamic models * models of biodiversity, community structure and dynamics.

Book

Congruent population genetic structure but differing depths of divergence for three alpine stoneflies with similar ecology and geographic distributions

Comparative population genetic studies provide a powerful means for assessing the degree to which evolutionary histories may be congruent among taxa while also highlighting the potential for cryptic diversity within existing species. In the Rocky Mountains, three confamilial stoneflies ( Zapada glacier , Lednia tumana , and Lednia tetonica ; Plecoptera, Nemouridae) occupy cold alpine streams that are primarily fed by melting ice. Lednia tumana and L. tetonica are sister species diagnosed from systematic morphological differences, and they are endemic to areas surrounding Glacier National Park and Grand Teton National Park, respectively, in the U.S. Rocky Mountains. Zapada glacier is also present in alpine streams from Glacier National Park to the Teton Range, sometimes co‐occurring with either Lednia species. We used mitochondrial sequence data to clarify species boundaries, compare population genetic patterns, and test demographic models in a coalescent framework for the three stoneflies. We addressed four questions: (1) Is there genetic support for the morphology‐based species boundaries in Lednia ? (2) Is there genetic support for cryptic, or as‐yet undescribed, diversity within Z. glacier ? (3) Do similar geographic distributions and ecological requirements yield spatial congruence of genetic structure between high‐elevation Lednia and Z. glacier populations? (4) Is there evidence for contemporary gene flow among isolated populations in either group? Our results supported the existing taxonomy with Z. glacier and the two Lednia species differing in their depths of divergence among study regions (e.g. maximum sequence divergence within Z. glacier = 1.2% versus 5% between L. tumana and L. tetonica ). However, spatial population genetic patterns were broadly congruent, indicating stonefly populations isolated on mountaintop islands. Coalescent modelling supported the possibility of rare, extremely limited contemporary gene flow among Z. glacier populations, with no support for gene flow between L. tumana and L. tetonica . The focal stoneflies and associated assemblages occupy the highest elevation, coldest permanent alpine streams in the study region. This lotic habitat type faces an uncertain future under a diminishing alpine cryosphere. Given spatial congruence of genetic structure demonstrating unique biodiversity associated with individual alpine islands, we encourage conservation management strategies be developed and applied at corresponding spatial scales.

Montana, Wyoming

Ecological risk assessment of environmental stress and bioactive chemicals to riverine fish populations: An individual-based model of smallmouth bass Micropterus dolomieu

Ecological risk assessments play an important role in environmental management and decision-making. Although empirical measurements of the effects of habitat changes and chemical exposure are often made at molecular and individual levels, environmental decision-making often requires the quantification of management-relevant, population-level outcomes. In this study, we generalized a modeling framework to evaluate population-level ecological risk of environmental stress and bioactive chemicals. The modeling framework includes (1) a biological model module that incorporates complex and interacting biological and ecological processes, and environmental stochasticity, (2) an effect module that links the impacts of environmental changes and chemical exposure to individual characteristics, and (3) a population module that makes decisions on the choice of population-level properties to best capture the effects and thus to track in the model based on the target species and the research and management interest. This framework is a 3-module procedure that provides an alternative way for researchers to organize, present and communicate the risk assessment modeling studies. To demonstrate this framework, we used a socioeconomically important riverine fish species, smallmouth bass Micropterus dolomieu , as the model species. We developed an individual-based model as the biological model module. We evaluated the impacts of changing water temperature and flow regimes, and the impacts of exposure to estrogenic endocrine disrupting compounds (EEDC) on smallmouth bass populations in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed, USA. Warm summer water temperatures and year-round high flows had the most severe impacts on the smallmouth bass population. An increase in exposure level to EEDC, both year-round and in summer months, substantially reduced population size, spawner and recruit abundance, and the proportion of quality-length individuals. Acute exposure to EEDC was more detrimental to the population than chronic exposure. Acute exposure during spawning season had the most severe impacts. This modeling framework can be extended to other species, environmental factors and chemicals, and can be used to inform management and conservation decisions.

Delaware, Maryland, New York, Pennsylvania, Virgin

Ecology and control of an introduced population of Southern Watersnakes ( Nerodia fasciata ) in southern California

Native to the southeastern United States, Southern Watersnakes ( Nerodia fasciata ) are known from two sites in California, but their ecological impacts are poorly understood. We investigated the ecology of Southern Watersnakes in Machado Lake, Harbor City, Los Angeles County, California, including an assessment of control opportunities. We captured 306 watersnakes as a result of aquatic trapping and hand captures. We captured snakes of all sizes (162–1063 mm snout–vent length [SVL], 3.5–873.3 g), demonstrating the existence of a well-established population. The smallest reproductive female was 490 mm SVL and females contained 12–46 postovulatory embryos (mean = 21). Small watersnakes largely consumed introduced Western Mosquitofish ( Gambusia affinis ), while larger snakes specialized on larval and metamorph American Bullfrogs ( Lithobates catesbeianus ) and Green Sunfish ( Lepomis cyanellus ). Overall capture per unit effort (CPUE) in traps declined with time during an intensive 76-d trapping bout, but CPUE trends varied considerably among traplines and it is unlikely that the overall decline in CPUE represented a major decrease in the snake population size. Although we found no direct evidence that Southern Watersnakes are affecting native species in Machado Lake, this population may serve as a source for intentional or unintentional transportation of watersnakes to bodies of water containing imperiled native prey species or potential competitors.

California

Ecosystem change and population declines in gulls: Shifting baseline considerations for assessing ecological integrity of protected areas

In Lake Superior's Pukaskwa National Park (PNP) in northern Ontario, Canada, herring gull ( Larus argentatus ) population size is used as an indicator of ecological integrity. Since the 1970s, gull populations have declined by 70% suggesting deteriorating park conditions. However, most other rated park indicators show stable or positive trends. Here, we focus on reconciling these seemingly disparate trends through a better understanding of factors regulating PNP gull populations. Lake-wide declines in surface-schooling prey fish may be limiting aquatic food resources for PNP gulls. To investigate this, we examined gull population trends in different parts of the park in the context of food availability. Gull diets were assessed using regurgitated pellets, egg stable isotopes (nitrogen, carbon) and fatty acids. Population declines were more severe in southern PNP compared to northern PNP and inter-region differences in bird diets likely contributed to these population trends. Gulls in the south relied to a greater extent on dwindling aquatic food resources, i.e., prey fish, while birds in northern PNP supplemented their diets with anthropogenic foods, i.e., garbage. Recognizing that regional declines in aquatic food availability have occurred across eastern Lake Superior is important for the interpretation of PNP gull population trends. Wide-scale ecological changes affecting PNP suggest that factors limiting PNP's herring gull population are not park-specific but, instead, reflect broader ecosystem-wide changes. Defining an appropriate threshold based on current knowledge of ecological conditions on Lake Superior is critical for using herring gull populations as an indicator of park ecological integrity.

Journal of Great Lakes Research

Estimating age from recapture data: Integrating incremental growth measures with ancillary data to infer age-at-length

Estimating the age of individuals in wild populations can be of fundamental importance for answering ecological questions, modeling population demographics, and managing exploited or threatened species. Significant effort has been devoted to determining age through the use of growth annuli, secondary physical characteristics related to age, and growth models. Many species, however, either do not exhibit physical characteristics useful for independent age validation or are too rare to justify sacrificing a large number of individuals to establish the relationship between size and age. Length‐at‐age models are well represented in the fisheries and other wildlife management literature. Many of these models overlook variation in growth rates of individuals and consider growth parameters as population parameters. More recent models have taken advantage of hierarchical structuring of parameters and Bayesian inference methods to allow for variation among individuals as functions of environmental covariates or individual‐specific random effects. Here, we describe hierarchical models in which growth curves vary as individual‐specific stochastic processes, and we show how these models can be fit using capture–recapture data for animals of unknown age along with data for animals of known age. We combine these independent data sources in a Bayesian analysis, distinguishing natural variation (among and within individuals) from measurement error. We illustrate using data for African dwarf crocodiles, comparing von Bertalanffy and logistic growth models. The analysis provides the means of predicting crocodile age, given a single measurement of head length. The von Bertalanffy was much better supported than the logistic growth model and predicted that dwarf crocodiles grow from 19.4 cm total length at birth to 32.9 cm in the first year and 45.3 cm by the end of their second year. Based on the minimum size of females observed with hatchlings, reproductive maturity was estimated to be at nine years. These size benchmarks are believed to represent thresholds for important demographic parameters; improved estimates of age, therefore, will increase the precision of population projection models. The modeling approach that we present can be applied to other species and offers significant advantages when multiple sources of data are available and traditional aging techniques are not practical.

Loango National Park

Fitting population models from field data

The application of population and community ecology to solving real-world problems requires population and community dynamics models that reflect the myriad patterns of interaction among organisms and between the biotic and physical environments. Appropriate models are not hard to construct, but the experimental manipulations needed to evaluate their defining coefficients are often both time consuming and costly, and sometimes environmentally destructive, as well. In this paper we present an empirical approach for finding the coefficients of broadly inclusive models without the need for environmental manipulation, demonstrate the approach with both an animal and a plant example, and suggest possible applications. Software has been developed, and is available from the senior author, with a manual describing both field and analytic procedures.

Ecological Modelling

Evaluating immunocontraception for managing suburban white-tailed deer in Irondequoit, New York

Immunocontraception is frequently proposed as an alternative to lethal removal of females for deer management. However, little information is available for evaluating the potential of applying immunocontraceptives to free-ranging populations. Our objectives were to estimate effort required to apply porcine zona pellucida (PZP) to individual deer and assess the utility of using immunocontraception to control growth of deer populations. The study was conducted in a 43-km2 suburban community with about 400 deer. Effort per deer was measured as time required to capture and mark deer, and then to apply booster immunocontraceptive treatments by remote injection. Estimates of numbers of females to treat to control population growth were based on the generalized sustained-yield (SY) model adapted for contraception of females. The SY curve was calibrated using data on deer abundance acquired from aerial population surveys and nutritional condition of females removed by a concurrent culling program. Effort was influenced by 4 factors: deer population density, approachability of individual deer, access to private and public land, and efficacy of the contraceptive treatment. Effort and deer density were inversely related. Cumulative effort for treatment increased exponentially because some deer were more difficult to approach than others. Potential of using immunocontraception at low deer population densities (<25% ecological carrying capacity) is limited by the interaction of the proportion of breeding-age females in the population and treatment efficacy, as well as encounter rates. Immunocontraception has the best potential for holding suburban deer populations between 30 and 70% of ecological carrying capacity, but is likely to be useful only in localized populations when the number of females to be treated is small (e.g., <200 deer).

New York

Seasonal distribution of bird populations at the Patuxent Research Refuge

A detailed study of seasonal changes in bird populationswas made at the Patuxent Research Refuge, located between Bowie and Laurel, Maryland during the years 1936-1949. The history of the Refuge is reviewed and its physical and biological characteristlcs summarized.. The methods of study used during the investigation mcluded: periodic censuses of a representative 304-acre study area over a two-year period; a census of the breeding population of the entire. Refuge during one year; detailed population studies of representative habitats during the breeding season; censuses of the wintering population of. the entire Refuge during two years; general surveys of wintering populations for seven years; and general observations of seasonal changes in bird populatlons over a fourteen-year period, including data from an extensive banding program and from many special types of censuses. The phenology of the Refuge is described in conslderable detail throughout the year, with special attention given to major fluctuatIons in bIrd populations as correlated with climatic changes and with seasonal aspectlon. of the vegetation. The component specIes of birds m the more important migration waves are listed. Figures approximating the Refuge breeding and wmtering populations are given, while indices representing the relative abundance of bird populations, based on figures from the two-year seasonal populatlon study, were obtained for the entire year. The greatest variety of species as well as the greatest number of individuals occurred on the Refuge during the migration .periods in spring and fall, the variety of species being slightly higher in spring than in fa!l, while the population of individuals was considerably higher in fall. Wmtering and breeding populations were low and relatively stable compared to the populations at other seasons.The ecological affinities of the bird populations differed greatly from one season to another. Species characteristic of edge habitats were much more numerous in winter, while forest species were predominant in summer. Insectivorous species comprised a large proportion (40 to 60 percent) of the total population during the warmer months, but were of minor importance in winter. The greatest number of species of birds on the Refuge occurred during the population peaks of insectivorous species, while the largest number of individuals was found during the population peaks of omnivorous and herbivorous species. The population peaks of insectivorous species were found to occur much later in spring and considerably earlier in fall than the. corresponding peaks of omnivorous and herbivorous species. The Fringillidae contributed the greatest number of individuals in winter, while the Parulidae was the most important family (numerically) in summer. Water birds and marsh birds were relatively unimportant throughout the year, due to the scarcity of suitable habitats. Permanent resident species were found to vary from about one-fifth to slightly less than one-half of the total population throughout the year, although many individuals of these species were either transients or part-time residents. Summer residents and winter residents were more abundant than permanent residents during their respective periods of occurrence. During the greater part of the migration period, transient species were found to comprise only 10 to 20 percent of the total population. transient individuals of all species would account for a much larger proportion of the population at this time. After comparing the results of these investigations with similar studies in other areas, it is believed that the seasonal population changes on the Patuxent Research Refuge are fairly representative of those occurring throughout the Middle Atlantic and East-central States. Yearly variations in seasonal population changes are described and the causative factors indicated, when known. Of these, food supply and weather conditions were generally the m

Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry,

Going coastal: Shared evolutionary history between coastal British Columbia and Southeast Alaska wolves (canis lupus)

Many coastal species occupying the temperate rainforests of the Pacific Northwest in North America comprise endemic populations genetically and ecologically distinct from interior continental conspecifics. Morphological variation previously identified among wolf populations resulted in recognition of multiple subspecies of wolves in the Pacific Northwest. Recently, separate genetic studies have identified diverged populations of wolves in coastal British Columbia and coastal Southeast Alaska, providing support for hypotheses of distinct coastal subspecies. These two regions are geographically and ecologically contiguous, however, there is no comprehensive analysis across all wolf populations in this coastal rainforest. By combining mitochondrial DNA datasets from throughout the Pacific Northwest, we examined the genetic relationship between coastal British Columbia and Southeast Alaska wolf populations and compared them with adjacent continental populations. Phylogenetic analysis indicates complete overlap in the genetic diversity of coastal British Columbia and Southeast Alaska wolves, but these populations are distinct from interior continental wolves. Analyses of molecular variation support the separation of all coastal wolves in a group divergent from continental populations, as predicted based on hypothesized subspecies designations. Two novel haplotypes also were uncovered in a newly assayed continental population of interior Alaska wolves. We found evidence that coastal wolves endemic to these temperate rainforests are diverged from neighbouring, interior continental wolves; a finding that necessitates new international strategies associated with the management of this species.

Alaska

Dynamic environments generate geographic fluctuations in population structure of an inland shorebird

Species distributions depend on fine-scale ecological processes and population growth trajectories and are influenced by climate and weather changes. However, the characterization of inter-population dynamics underlying the geographic distributions of migratory organisms remains challenging. We adopted a stable isotope approach to investigate the dynamic population geography of a terrestrial migratory bird across multiple generations. We found that the age-specific geographic source of Mountain Plovers sampled during winter shifted over four years across a latitudinal gradient. Moreover, our results show that differential effects of climate on the probability of occurrence at the wintering ground could be a driver of population turnover in a migratory species adapted to extreme environmental stochasticity (i.e., drought occurrence). We propose a framework for the identification of spatial and temporal climate and weather components and respective effects on population composition and recruitment into migratory wintering populations. Our approach is useful to reveal population compositional shifts through hydrogen stable isotope analysis while accounting for cumulative drought effects.

Ecosphere

Movement behavior, dispersal, and the potential for localized management of deer in a suburban environment

We examined the potential for localized management of white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ) to be successful by measuring movements, testing site fidelity, and modeling the effects of dispersal. Fifty-nine females were radiomarked and tracked during 1997 through 2000 in Irondequoit, New York, USA, a suburb of Rochester. We constructed home ranges for those deer with A greater than or equal to 18 reclocations/season. Fifty percent minimum convex polygons (MCP) averaged 3.9 (SE = 0.53) ha in the summer and 5.3 (SE = 0.80) ha in the winter. Deer showed strong fidelity to both summer and winter home ranges, and 30 of 31 females showed overlap of summer and winter home ranges. Annual survival was 64%; the major cause of mortality was deer-automobile collisions. Average annual dispersal rates were <15% for yearlings and adults. Using matrix population modeling, we explored the role of female dispersal in sustaining different management objectives in adjacent locales of approximately 1,000 ha. Modeling showed that if female dispersal was 8%, culling would have to reduce annual survival to 58% to maintain a population just under ecological carrying capacity and reduce survival to 42% to keel) the population at one-half carrying capacity. With the same dispersal, contraception Would need to be effective in 32% of females if the population is near carrying capacity and 68% if the population is at one-half of carrying capacity. Movement behavior data and modeling results lend support to the use of a localized approach to management of females that emphasizes neighborhood-scale manipulation of deer populations, but our research suggests that dispersal rates in females could be critical to long-term success.

New York

Ecology of the island night lizard, Xantusia riversiana, on Santa Barbara Island, California

We studied the population biology and ecology of the island night lizard (Xantusia riversiana) on Santa Barbara Island, California from 1981-1988. We trapped all the major habitats on the island, using pitfall traps and Sherman small mammal traps. In addition to permanently marking individuals by toe-clipping, we used specialized marking techniques on some individuals (fluorescent powder and radioactive tags) to study home range, movement and activity patterns. Island night lizards are exclusively diurnal and exceedingly secretive. Though generally cryptic in coloration, their dorsal coloration is highly variable. They occur most commonly in habitats providing dense vegetative cover (thickets of boxthorn and prickly pear) and in certain types of rock habitat. Night lizards are sedentary and have very small home ranges (x̄=17.2m 2 ). They are slow-growing with some individuals living to at least 12 years old. The most common injuries (tail and scale injuries) apparently result from intraspecific fighting. A wide variety of terrestrial spiders and insects make up the majority of their diet, but they also feed on an unusually large amount of plant material for a small lizard. Because of their diverse diet, low metabolic rate and small, overlapping home ranges, they reach greater densities (>3200 lizards/ha in boxthorn) than previously reported for any other ground-dwelling lizard. Favorable habitat has been reduced because of past farming and grazing, but, given their wide distribution on the island, exceptionally high densities and current protection within a National Park, X. riversiana on Santa Barbara Island are not threatened with extinction, as was previously thought.

Herpetological Monographs

Foraging segregation and genetic divergence between geographically proximate colonies of a highly mobile seabird

Foraging segregation may play an important role in the maintenance of animal diversity, and is a proposed mechanism for promoting genetic divergence within seabird species. However, little information exists regarding its presence among seabird populations. We investigated genetic and foraging divergence between two colonies of endangered Hawaiian petrels ( Pterodroma sandwichensis ) nesting on the islands of Hawaii and Kauai using the mitochondrial Cytochrome b gene and carbon, nitrogen and hydrogen isotope values (δ 13 C, δ 15 N and δD, respectively) of feathers. Genetic analyses revealed strong differentiation between colonies on Hawaii and Kauai, with Φ ST = 0.50 ( p < 0.0001). Coalescent-based analyses gave estimates of <1 migration event per 1,000 generations. Hatch-year birds from Kauai had significantly lower δ 13 C and δ 15 N values than those from Hawaii. This is consistent with Kauai birds provisioning chicks with prey derived from near or north of the Hawaiian Islands, and Hawaii birds provisioning young with prey from regions of the equatorial Pacific characterized by elevated δ 15 N values at the food web base. δ 15 N values of Kauai and Hawaii adults differed significantly, indicating additional foraging segregation during molt. Feather δD varied from −69 to 53‰. This variation cannot be related solely to an isotopically homogeneous ocean water source or evaporative water loss. Instead, we propose the involvement of salt gland excretion. Our data demonstrate the presence of foraging segregation between proximately nesting seabird populations, despite high species mobility. This ecological diversity may facilitate population coexistence, and its preservation should be a focus of conservation strategies.

Hawaii