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At least 199 records · Page 11Linked to original sources
USGS2002

The nature of the crust under Cayman Trough from gravity

Considerable crustal thickness variations are inferred along Cayman Trough, a slow-spreading ocean basin in the Caribbean Sea, from modeling of the gravity field. The crust to a distance of 50 km from the spreading center is only 2–3 km thick in agreement with dredge and dive results. Crustal thickness increases to ∼5.5 km at distances between 100 and 430 km west of the spreading center and to 3.5–6 km at distances between 60 and 370 km east of the spreading center. The increase in thickness is interpreted to represent serpentinization of the uppermost mantle lithosphere, rather than a true increase in the volume of accreted ocean crust. Serpentinized peridotite rocks have indeed been dredged from the base of escarpments of oceanic crust rocks in Cayman Trough. Laboratory-measured density and P-wave speed of peridotite with 40–50% serpentine are similar to the observed speed in published refraction results and to the inferred density from the model. Crustal thickness gradually increases to 7–8 km at the far ends of the trough partially in areas where sea floor magnetic anomalies were identified. Basement depth becomes gradually shallower starting 250 km west of the rise and 340 km east of the rise, in contrast to the predicted trend of increasing depth to basement from cooling models of the oceanic lithosphere. The gradual increase in apparent crustal thickness and the shallowing trend of basement depth are interpreted to indicate that the deep distal parts of Cayman Trough are underlain by highly attenuated crust, not by a continuously accreted oceanic crust.

Marine and Petroleum Geology↗
USGS2022

Modeling of barrier breaching during Hurricanes Sandy and Matthew

Physical processes driving barrier island change during storms are important to understand to mitigate coastal hazards and to evaluate conceptual models for barrier evolution. Spatial variations in barrier island topography, landcover characteristics, and nearshore and back-barrier hydrodynamics can yield complex morphological change that requires models of increasing resolution and physical complexity to predict. Using the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport (COAWST) modeling system, we investigated two barrier island breaches that occurred on Fire Island, NY during Hurricane Sandy (2012) and at Matanzas, FL during Hurricane Matthew (2016). The model employed a recently implemented infragravity (IG) wave driver to represent the important effects of IG waves on nearshore water levels and sediment transport. The model simulated breaching and other changes with good skill at both locations, resolving differences in the processes and evolution. The breach simulated at Fire Island was 250 m west of the observed breach, whereas the breach simulated at Matanzas was within 100 m of the observed breach. Implementation of the vegetation module of COAWST to allow three-dimensional drag over dune vegetation at Fire Island improved model skill by decreasing flows across the back-barrier, as opposed to varying bottom roughness that did not positively alter model response. Analysis of breach processes at Matanzas indicated that both far-field and local hydrodynamics influenced breach creation and evolution, including remotely generated waves and surge, but also surge propagation through back-barrier waterways. This work underscores the importance of resolving the complexity of nearshore and back-barrier systems when predicting barrier island change during extreme events.

Florida, New York↗
USGS2023

A model integrating satellite-derived shoreline observations for predicting fine-scale shoreline response to waves and sea-level rise across large coastal regions

Satellite-derived shoreline observations combined with dynamic shoreline models enable fine-scale predictions of coastal change across large spatiotemporal scales. Here, we present a satellite-data-assimilated, “littoral-cell”-based, ensemble Kalman-filter shoreline model to predict coastal change and uncertainty due to waves, sea-level rise (SLR), and other natural and anthropogenic processes. We apply the developed ensemble model to the entire California coastline (approximately 1,760 km), much of which is sparsely monitored with traditional survey methods (e.g., Lidar/GPS). Water-level-corrected, satellite-derived shoreline observations (obtained from the CoastSat toolbox) offer a nearly unbiased representation of in situ surveyed shorelines (e.g., mean sea-level elevation contours) at Ocean Beach, San Francisco. We demonstrate that model calibration with satellite observations during a 20-year hindcast period (1995–2015) provides nearly equivalent model forecast accuracy during a validation period (2015–2020) compared to model calibration with monthly in situ observations at Ocean Beach. When comparing model-predicted shoreline positions to satellite-derived observations, the model achieves an accuracy of <10 m RMSE for nearly half of the entire California coastline for the validation period. The calibrated/validated model is then applied for multi-decadal simulations of shoreline change due to projected wave and sea-level conditions, while holding the model parameters fixed. By 2100, the model estimates that 24%–75% of California's beaches may become completely eroded due to SLR scenarios of 1.0–3.0 m, respectively. The satellite-data-assimilated modeling system presented here is generally applicable to a variety of coastal settings around the world owing to the global coverage of satellite imagery.

JGR Earth Surface↗
USGS2013

The significance of ultra-refracted surface gravity waves on sheltered coasts, with application to San Francisco Bay

Ocean surface gravity waves propagating over shallow bathymetry undergo spatial modification of propagation direction and energy density, commonly due to refraction and shoaling. If the bathymetric variations are significant the waves can undergo changes in their direction of propagation (relative to deepwater) greater than 90° over relatively short spatial scales. We refer to this phenomenon as ultra-refraction. Ultra-refracted swell waves can have a powerful influence on coastal areas that otherwise appear to be sheltered from ocean waves. Through a numerical modeling investigation it is shown that San Francisco Bay, one of the earth's largest and most protected natural harbors, is vulnerable to ultra-refracted ocean waves, particularly southwest incident swell. The flux of wave energy into San Francisco Bay results from wave transformation due to the bathymetry and orientation of the large ebb tidal delta, and deep, narrow channel through the Golden Gate. For example, ultra-refracted swell waves play a critical role in the intermittent closure of the entrance to Crissy Field Marsh, a small restored tidal wetland located on the sheltered north-facing coast approximately 1.5 km east of the Golden Gate Bridge.

California↗
USGS2019

Spatial distribution of water level impact to back-barrier bays

Water level in semi-enclosed bays, landward of barrier islands, is mainly driven by offshore sea level fluctuations that are modulated by bay geometry and bathymetry, causing spatial variability in the ensuing response (transfer). Local wind setup can have a secondary role that depends on wind speed, fetch, and relative orientation of the wind direction and the bay. Inlet geometry and bathymetry primarily regulate the magnitude of the transfer between open ocean and bay. Tides and short-period offshore oscillations are more damped in the bays than longer-lasting offshore fluctuations, such as storm surge and sea level rise. We compare observed and modeled water levels at stations in a mid-Atlantic bay (Barnegat Bay) with offshore water level proxies. Observed water levels in Barnegat Bay are compared and combined with model results from the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport (COAWST) modeling system to evaluate the spatial structure of the water level transfer. Analytical models based on the dimensional characteristics of the bay are used to combine the observed data and the numerical model results in a physically consistent approach. Model water level transfers match observed values at locations inside the Bay in the storm frequency band (transfers ranging from 70-100%) and tidal frequencies (10-55%). The contribution of frequency-dependent local setup caused by wind acting along the bay is also considered. The approach provides transfer estimates for locations inside the Bay where observations were not available resulting in a complete spatial characterization. The approach allows for the study of the Bay response to alternative forcing scenarios (landscape changes, future storms, and rising sea level). Detailed spatial estimates of water level transfer can inform decisions on inlet management and contribute to the assessment of current and future flooding hazard in back-barrier bays and along mainland shorelines.

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences↗
USGS2025

Pluvial and potential compound flooding in a coupled coastal modeling framework: New York City during post-tropical Cyclone Ida (2021)

Many coastal urban areas are prone to extreme pluvial flooding due to limitations in stormwater system capacity, with the additional potential for flooding compounded by storm surge, tides, and waves. Understanding and simulating these processes can improve prediction and flood risk management. Here, we adapt the Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere–Wave–Sediment Transport modeling framework (COAWST) to simulate pluvial flooding from post-tropical Cyclone Ida (2021) in the Jamaica Bay watershed of New York City (NYC). We modify the model to capture the volumetric effects of rainfall and parameterize soil infiltration and a stormwater conveyance system as the drainage rate. We generate a spatially continuous flood map of Ida with a root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 20 cm when compared to high-water marks, useful for understanding Ida's impacts and subsequent mitigation planning. Results show that over 23 km 2 and 4621 buildings were flooded deeper than 0.3 m during Ida. Sensitivity analyses are used to study the broader risk from events like Ida (pluvial flooding) as well as potential compound (pluvial–coastal) flooding. Spatial shifting of the storm track within a typical 12 h forecast uncertainty reveals a worst-case scenario that increases this flooded area to 62 km 2 (5907 buildings). Shifting Ida's rainfall to coincide with high tide increases this flooded area by 1 km 2 , a relatively small change due to the lack of significant storm surge. The application of COAWST to this storm event addresses a broader goal of developing the capability to model compound pluvial–coastal flooding by simultaneously representing coastal storm processes such as rain, tide, waves, erosion, and atmosphere–wave–ocean interactions. The sensitivity analysis results underscore the need for detailed flood risk assessments, showing that Ida, already NYC's worst rain event, could have been even more devastating with slight shifts in the storm track.

New York↗
USGS2021

Modeling marsh dynamics using a 3-D coupled wave-flow-sediment model

Salt marshes are dynamic biogeomorphic systems that respond to external physical factors, including tides, sediment transport, and waves, as well as internal processes such as autochthonous soil formation. Predicting the fate of marshes requires a modeling framework that accounts for these processes in a coupled fashion. In this study, we implement two new marsh dynamic processes in the 3-D COAWST (coupled-ocean-atmosphere-wave sediment transport) model. The processes added are the erosion of the marsh edge scarp caused by lateral wave thrust from surface waves and vertical accretion driven by organic growth on the marsh platform. The sediment released from the marsh causes a change in bathymetry, thereby modifying the wave-energy reaching the marsh edge. Marsh vertical accretion due to biomass production is considered for a single vegetation species and is determined by the hydroperiod parameters (tidal datums) and the elevation of the marsh cells. Tidal datums are stored at user-defined intervals as a hindcast (on the order of days) and used to update the vertical growth formulation. Idealized domains are utilized to verify the lateral wave thrust formulation and show the dynamics of lateral wave erosion leading to horizontal retreat of marsh edge. The simulations of Reedy and Dinner Creeks within the Barnegat Bay estuary system demonstrate the model capability to account for both lateral wave erosion and vertical accretion due to organic growth in a realistic marsh complex. The simulations show that majority of accretion over the marsh complex occurs due to organic production while most estuarine sediment deposition occurs along the channel edges. The ability of the model to capture the fate of the sediment can be extended to model future storm and relative sea level rise (RSLR) scenarios.

Frontiers in Marine Science↗
USGS2019

Tidal variation in cohesive sediment distribution in an idealized, partially-mixed estuary

Particle settling velocity and erodibility are key factors that govern the transport of sediment through coastal environments including estuaries. These are difficult to parameterize in models that represent mud, whose properties can change in response to many factors, including tidally varying suspended sediment concentration (SSC) and shear stress. Using the COAWST (Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport) model framework, we implemented bed consolidation, sediment-induced stratification, and flocculation formulations within an idealized two-dimensional domain that represented the longitudinal dimension of a micro-tidal, muddy, partially mixed estuary. Within the Estuarine Turbidity Maximum (ETM), SSC and median floc diameter varied by a factor of four over the tidal cycle. Downstream of the ETM, the median floc size and SSC were several times smaller and showed less tidal variation (~20% or less). The suspended floc distributions only reached an equilibrium size as a function of SSC and shear in the ETM at peak tidal flow. In general, flocculation increased particle size, which reduced SSC by half in the ETM through increased settling velocity. Consolidation also limited SSC by reduced resuspension, which then limited floc growth through reduced SSC by half outside of the ETM. Sediment-induced stratification had negligible effects in the parameter space examined. Efforts to lessen the computation cost of the flocculation routine by reducing the number of size classes proved difficult; floc size distribution and SSC were sensitive to specification of size classes by factors of 60% and 300%, respectively.

Virginia↗
USGS2018

Storm surge propagation and flooding in small tidal rivers during events of mixed coastal and fluvial influence

The highly urbanized estuary of San Francisco Bay is an excellent example of a location susceptible to flooding from both coastal and fluvial influences. As part of developing a forecast model that integrates fluvial and oceanic drivers, a case study of the Napa River and its interactions with the San Francisco Bay was performed. For this application we utilize Delft3D-FM, a hydrodynamic model that computes conservation of mass and momentum on a flexible mesh grid, to calculate water levels that account for tidal forcing, storm surge generated by wind and pressure fields, and river flows. We simulated storms with realistic atmospheric pressure, river discharge, and tidal forcing to represent a realistic joint fluvial and coastal storm event. Storm conditions were applied to both a realistic field-scale Napa river drainage as well as an idealized geometry. With these scenarios, we determine how the extent, level, and duration of flooding is dependent on these atmospheric and hydrologic parameters. Unsurprisingly, the model indicates that maximal water levels will occur in a tidal river when high tides, storm surge, and large fluvial discharge events are coincident. Model results also show that large tidal amplitudes diminish storm surge propagation upstream and that phasing between peak fluvial discharges and high tide is important for predicting when and where the highest water levels will occur. The interactions between tides, river discharge, and storm surge are not simple, indicating the need for more integrated flood forecasting models in the future.

California↗
USGS2018

Does what go up also come down? Using a recruitment model to balance alewife nutrient import and export

Migrating adult Alewives Alosa pseudoharengus are a source of marine-derived nutrients on the East Coast of North America, importing nitrogen and phosphorus into freshwater habitats. Juvenile migrants subsequently transport freshwater-derived nutrients into the ocean. We developed a deterministic model to explore the theoretical nutrient dynamics of Alewife migrations at differing spawner abundances. Net nutrient balance was calculated relative to these abundances along the spawner–recruit curve. The ecological consequences of these subsidies in a particular watershed depend on the magnitude of adult escapement relative to the habitat’s carrying capacity for juveniles. At low escapement levels and assuming complete habitat access, the number of recruits produced per spawner was high and juvenile nutrient export dominated. At high escapement levels, fewer recruits were produced per spawner because recruitment is density dependent. As a result, adult nutrient import dominated. At varying levels of freshwater productivity and fisheries mortality for upstream spawners, this trend remained the same while the magnitude of the endpoints changed. Productivity level was the major determinant of export, while fisheries mortality had the strongest effect on adult import. The dynamics of this nutrient trade-off are important for managers to consider as a recovering population will likely shift from net export to net import as escapement increases. This transition will be sensitive to both harvest rates and to fish passage efficacy at dams and other barriers.

Marine and Coastal Fisheries: Dynamics, Management↗
USGS2010

Rheology of the lithosphere

During the quadrennial term 1979–1982, major advances have been made in our knowledge of the rheology of the oceanic lithosphere by the skillful combination of experimental and theoretical rock mechanics, seismology and marine geophysics in increasingly sophisticated models for the flexure of the oceanic lithosphere at seamounts and island chains, along transform faults, and at subduction zones. The relative simplicity of plate bending geometry, thermal history, and mineralogical and chemical compositions of the oceanic plates in these settings make the geophysical observations very powerful constraints on the in situ rheology of the oceanic lithosphere. In the first part of this paper, I review the laboratory work on materials appropriate to the oceanic lithosphere with emphasis on contributions during the quadrennial period and the need for future work. The important results of flexure models incorporating realistic material properties are then summarized.

Reviews of Geophysics and Space Physics↗
USGS2021

Volcanic Aquifers of Hawai‘i—Construction and calibration of numerical models for assessing groundwater availability on Kaua‘i, O‘ahu, and Maui

Steady-state numerical groundwater-flow models were constructed for the islands of Kaua‘i, O‘ahu, and Maui to enable quantification of the hydrologic consequences of withdrawals and other stresses that can place limits on groundwater availability. The volcanic aquifers of Hawai‘i supply nearly all drinking water for the islands’ residents, freshwater for diverse industries, and natural discharge to springs, streams, and nearshore areas that support ecosystems, cultural practices, aesthetics, and recreation. Increases in groundwater withdrawal and changes in climate can cause water-table depression, saltwater rise, and reduction of natural groundwater discharge—all of which can limit fresh groundwater availability. The numerical models described in this report are designed to quantify these consequences. Separate models were created for each island using MODFLOW-2005 with the Seawater Intrusion package, which allows simulation of freshwater and saltwater in ocean-island aquifers. Calibration resulted in models that generally replicate observed water-level, stream base-flow, and spring-flow data, and simulate groundwater-flow directions and fresh groundwater thicknesses that are consistent with conceptual models. The calibrated models use hydraulic properties that are consistent with the ranges reported in previous studies. The models show that the relative distribution of fresh groundwater discharge to the ocean, streams, and springs and withdrawals for human use differ substantially among the three islands studied here. These differences indicate that consequences that limit the availability of fresh groundwater for human use are likely to differ among the three islands.

Hawaii↗
USGS1994

Origin, transport, and emplacement of an exotic island-arc terrane exposed in eastern Kamchatka, Russia

The regional stratigraphy of eastern Kamchatka includes an exotic, Early-Late Cretaceous ophiolite and Late Cretaceous island-arc volcanic sequence. Integrating the existing geologic and geophysical data, we examine the origin, transport, emplacement, and postemplacement deformation of the island-arc terrane, which is named the Olyutorsky island arc. Results from several paleomagnetic studies consistently indicate that the island-arc terrane originated >1000 km to the south of where it is presently exposed. Although the formative paleolatitudes of the island-arc rocks approximately correspond to the location of the Izanagi-Farallon subduction zone, the age of the volcanic rocks postdates the cessation of Izanagi-Farallon convergence, thus indicating that an unnamed plate or back-arc basin existed in the northwest Pacific during Late Cretaceous time. We examine two possible models for northward transport of the island-arc terrane to Kamchatka: (1) infra-oceanic transport with the Pacific or Kula plates and (2) coastwise translation of the island-arc terrane after accretion to the Eurasian margin far to the south of Kamchatka. For both models, the dominant Eocene and Miocene deformation ages observed in eastern Kamchatka are used as two possible age limits for the cessation of northward transport. Although the observed paleolatitudes from paleomagnetic data correspond best with the infra-oceanic transport model, the provenance of the Paleogene "transport" stratigraphy indicates a near-shore sediment supply. Our preferred interpretation is that the island-arc terrane (1) accreted onto the Eurasian margin concurrent with cessation of island-arc volcanism (Maastrichtian-Danian) and (2) underwent northward coastwise translation along a major strike-slip fault zone ending by middle-late Eocene time (43-50 Ma). It is unclear whether the ophiolite was exposed during arc-continent collision or whether the ophiolite was obducted onto the island arc prior to collision. A consequence of either infra-oceanic transport or coastwise translation is that an open corridor between the western terminus of the Aleutian Arc and Kamchatka must have existed until middle to late Eocene time. Spreading within the Komandorsky Basin, subduction of sea-mounts, and collision of the Aleutian Arc with Kamchatka are proposed to have instigated the second Miocene phase of deformation, which uplifted and reexposed the island-arc terrane.

Kamchatka Peninsula↗
USGS2020

GIS-Modeling of island hopping through the Philippines demonstrates trade-offs migrant grey-faced buzzards during oceanic crossings

Migration can be costly with consequences that can influence population trajectories. These costs and consequences are especially heightened during over-water travels, which can be high-risk events for birds. We created spatial models to evaluate potential migratory responses of “oceanic”, island-hopping grey-faced buzzards that encounter variation in landscape parameters and weather as they move through and out of the Philippine archipelago. We constrained the modeled routes to enter the island chain at Basco and to use one of four potential exit points in the south of the country, either Balabac, Bongao, Balut Island, or Cape San Agustin. We used all possible combinations of our three external parameters (stopover sites, water crossings and wind direction) to model alternative migratory routes for each of the four exit points (n = 20 migratory routes). Modeled grey-faced buzzard routes were between 1,582 and 2,970 km. Routes overlapped over eastern and central Luzon, along a leading line created by the Sierra Madre Mountains. Routes also overlapped and suggested unavoidable over-water crossings between Mindoro and Palawan, Negros and Zamboanga del Norte, and Leyte and Surigao. Our models suggest that the optimal migratory strategy for these birds is to find the shortest route to an exit point with the greatest possible access to stopover habitats and fewest open-water crossings under wind resistance. Understanding how each of these external factors affected the geography and characteristics of the migratory routes helps us to understand the context for different migratory strategies of birds that face dangerous open-water crossings on migration.

Journal of Engineering, Environment and Agricultur↗
USGS1996

Numerical Analysis of Ground-Water Flow and Salinity in the Ewa Area, Oahu, Hawaii

The coastal plain in the Ewa area of southwestern Oahu, Hawaii, is part of a larger, nearly continuous sedimentary coastal plain along Oahu's southern coast. The coastal sediments are collectively known as caprock because they impede the free discharge of ground water from the underlying volcanic aquifers. The caprock is a layered sedimentary system consisting of interbedded marine and terrestrial sediments of both high and low permeability. Before sugarcane cultivation ended in late 1994, shallow ground water from the upper limestone unit, which is about 60 to 200 feet thick, was used primarily for irrigation of sugarcane. A cross-sectional ground-water flow and transport model was used to evaluate the hydrogeologic controls on the regional flow system in the Ewa area. Controls considered were: (1) overall caprock hydraulic conductivity, (2) stratigraphic variations of hydraulic conductivity in the caprock, and (3) recharge. In addition, the effects of a marina excavation were evaluated. Within the caprock, variations in hydraulic conductivity, caused by caprock stratigraphy or discontinuities of the stratigraphic units, are a major control on the direction of ground-water flow and the distribution of water levels and salinity. Model results also show that a reduction of recharge will result in increased salinity throughout the caprock with the greatest change in the upper limestone layer. In addition, the model indicates that excavation of an ocean marina will lower water levels in the upper limestone layer. Results of cross-sectional modeling confirm the general ground-water flow pattern that would be expected in the layered sedimentary system in the Ewa caprock. Ground-water flow is: (1) predominantly upward in the low-permeability sedimentary units, and (2) predominantly horizontal in the high-permeability sedimentary units.

Open-File Report↗
USGS1981

Early evolution of the Bering Sea by collision of oceanic rises and North Pacific subduction zones

Three major bathymetric features exist in the Bering Sea: Shirshov Ridge, Bowers Ridge, and Umnak Plateau. New refraction data over Umnak Plateau and previous geophysical data across Bowers Ridge indicate that a thickened welt of crustal material is present beneath both features. The crustal structure is transitional between oceanic and continental types. Various models for the origin of these features have been investigated. One that has not been proposed previously assumes that the protostructures of Bowers Ridge and Umnak Plateau could have formed outside of the present Bering Sea. According to this model, before formation of the Aleutian Ridge in late Mesozoic or earliest Tertiary time, these protostructures moved into their present Bering Sea positions. Prior to the arrival of these two structures in the Bering Sea, oceanic crust was subducted along the Bering continental margin connecting Alaska and Siberia. The collision of the Umnak Plateau protostructure with the southeastern edge of the margin may have caused subduction to terminate here and move southward. The new southerly position of subduction beneath the Aleutian Ridge was therefore controlled by late Mesozoic or early Tertiary locations of Umnak Plateau, Bowers Ridge, and possibly, the north-trending Shirshov Ridge farther to the west.

GSA Bulletin↗
USGS2020

Development of a two-stage life cycle model for Oncorhynchus kisutch (coho salmon) in the upper Cowlitz River Basin, Washington

Recovery of salmon populations in the upper Cowlitz River Basin depends on trap-and-haul efforts owing to impassable dams. Therefore, successful recovery depends on the collection of out-migrating juvenile salmon at Cowlitz Falls Dam (CFD) for transport below downstream dams, as well as the collection of adults for transport upstream from the dams. Tacoma Power began downstream fish collection efforts at CFD in the mid-1990s and has been working consistently since then to improve collection efficiency to support self-sustaining salmon and steelhead ( Onchorhynchus spp.) populations in the upper Cowlitz River Basin. Although much work has focused on estimating fish collection efficiency (FCE), there has been relatively little focus on modeling population dynamics to understand how fish collection efficiency and other factors drive production of both juvenile and adult salmon over their life cycle. As a first step towards understanding the factors affecting population dynamics of Oncorhynchus kisutch (coho salmon) in the upper Cowlitz River Basin, we developed a statistical life cycle model using adult escapement and age structure data, juvenile collection data, and juvenile fish collection efficiency estimates. The goal of the statistical life cycle model is to estimate annual production and survival during two critical life-stage transitions: the freshwater production from escapement of adults upstream from CFD to collection of juveniles at CFD, and the juvenile-to-adult survival from the time of collection at the dam to the return of adults. To structure the life cycle model, we used the Ricker stock-recruitment model to estimate juvenile production from the number of parent spawners. This approach allowed us to account for density dependence at high spawner abundances while estimating annual productivity, defined as the number of juveniles produced per spawner at low spawner abundance. We then expressed productivity as a function two key variables affecting the number of juveniles collected and transported at CFD: (1) annual FCE, and (2) the annual number of days that spill occurred at CFD from September 1 to April 30. Our key findings were as follows: FCE was the primary factor affecting productivity of coho salmon upstream from CFD because FCE affects the number of juveniles that survive to continue downstream migration; Juvenile-to-adult return (JAR) rates were relatively high considering that harvest was included in the estimate, averaging about 3.6 percent and ranging as high as 9.1 percent, suggesting that adult coho salmon may be able to return to CFD at sustainable population sizes; and Much variation in the estimates of juvenile fish production upriver of CFD was unexplained even after adult escapement and FCE were accounted for, suggesting that the model may be improved by exploring different covariates and model structures for juvenile production as well as JAR rates. Additionally, by including FCE in the model, we estimated that the median pre-collection productivity, defined as the number of juveniles produced per spawner when FCE=1, was 108.4 juveniles per spawner. Because this two-stage life cycle model partitions factors that affect fish production in river compared to the ocean environment and fish life stages, the model estimates should help inform fishery managers about the overall role that fish collection at CFD may have on the recovery and sustainability of coho salmon populations.

Washington↗
USGS2008

Ground-Water Availability in the Wailuku Area, Maui, Hawai'i

Most of the public water supply in Maui, Hawai'i, is from a freshwater lens in the Wailuku area of the island. Because of population growth, ground-water withdrawals from wells in this area increased from less than 10 Mgal/d during 1970 to about 23 Mgal/d during 2006. In response to increased withdrawals from the freshwater lens in the Wailuku area, water levels declined, the transition zone between freshwater and saltwater became shallower, and the chloride concentrations of water pumped from wells increased. These responses led to concern over the long-term sustainability of withdrawals from existing and proposed wells. A three-dimensional numerical ground-water flow and transport model was developed to simulate the effects of selected withdrawal and recharge scenarios on water levels, on the transition zone between freshwater and saltwater, and on surface-water/ground-water interactions. The model was constructed using time-varying recharge, withdrawals, and ocean levels. Hydraulic characteristics used to construct the model were initially based on published estimates but ultimately were varied to obtain better agreement between simulated and measured water levels and salinity profiles in the modeled area during the period 1926-2006. Scenarios included ground-water withdrawal at 2006 and 1996 rates and locations with average recharge (based on 2000-04 land use and 1926-2004 rainfall) and withdrawal at redistributed rates and locations with several different recharge scenarios. Simulation results indicate that continuing 1996 and 2006 withdrawal distributions into the future results in decreased water levels, a thinner freshwater lens, increased salinity from pumped wells, and higher salinity at several current withdrawal sites. A redistributed withdrawal condition in which ground-water withdrawal was redistributed to maximize withdrawal and minimize salinities in the withdrawn water was determined. The redistributed withdrawal simulates 27.1 Mgal/d of withdrawal from 14 wells or well fields in the Wailuku area. Simulation results from the five scenarios that include redistributed withdrawal conditions indicate the following for the Wailuku Aquifer Sector: (1) withdrawal during times of average recharge rates cause average water levels to decrease 2-3 ft and the transition zone to become more than 200 ft shallower after 150 years; (2) a 5-yr drought condition similar to the 1998-2002 drought results in additional salinity increases after 30 years (12.5 years of normal recharge after drought conditions) but only one well has salinity increases of concern; (3) additional recharge from restored streamflow significantly increases water levels, thickens the freshwater body, and decreases salinity at withdrawal sites in the Waihe'e and 'Iao Aquifer Systems; and (4) a complete removal of irrigation recharge decreases water levels and increases salinity in the central isthmus where irrigation is reduced, but recharge through restored streams still significantly increases water levels, thickens the freshwater body, and decreases salinity at withdrawal sites in the Waihe'e and 'Iao Aquifer Systems.

Scientific Investigations Report↗