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At least 199 records · Page 11Linked to original sources

Changes to extreme wave climates of islands within the Western Tropical Pacific throughout the 21st century under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, with implications for island vulnerability and sustainability

Waves are the dominant influence on coastal morphology and ecosystem structure of tropical Pacific islands. Wave heights, periods, and directions for the 21st century were projected using near-surface wind fields from four atmosphere-ocean coupled global climate models (GCM) under representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. GCM-derived wind fields forced the global WAVEWATCH-III wave model to generate hourly time-series of bulk wave parameters around 25 islands in the mid to western tropical Pacific Ocean for historical (1976–2005), mid-, and end-of-century time periods. Extreme significant wave heights decreased (~10.0%) throughout the 21st century under both climate scenarios compared to historical wave conditions and the higher radiative forcing 8.5 scenario displayed a greater and more widespread decrease in extreme significant wave heights compared to the lower forcing 4.5 scenario. An exception was for the end-of-century June–August season. Offshore of islands in the central equatorial Pacific, extreme significant wave heights displayed the largest changes from historical values. The frequency of extreme events during December–February decreased under RCP 8.5, whereas the frequency increased under RCP 4.5. Mean wave directions often rotated more than 30° clockwise at several locations during June–August, which could indicate a weakening of the trade winds’ influence on extreme wave directions and increasing dominance of Southern Ocean swell or eastern shift of storm tracks. The projected changes in extreme wave heights, directions of extreme events, and frequencies at which extreme events occur will likely result in changes to the morphology and sustainability of island nations.

Global and Planetary Change↗

Coupled atmosphere-ocean-wave simulations of a storm event over the Gulf of Lion and Balearic Sea

The coastal areas of the North-Western Mediterranean Sea are one of the most challenging places for ocean forecasting. This region is exposed to severe storms events that are of short duration. During these events, significant air-sea interactions, strong winds and large sea-state can have catastrophic consequences in the coastal areas. To investigate these air-sea interactions and the oceanic response to such events, we implemented the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport Modeling System simulating a severe storm in the Mediterranean Sea that occurred in May 2010. During this event, wind speed reached up to 25 m.s-1 inducing significant sea surface cooling (up to 2°C) over the Gulf of Lion (GoL) and along the storm track, and generating surface waves with a significant height of 6 m. It is shown that the event, associated with a cyclogenesis between the Balearic Islands and the GoL, is relatively well reproduced by the coupled system. A surface heat budget analysis showed that ocean vertical mixing was a major contributor to the cooling tendency along the storm track and in the GoL where turbulent heat fluxes also played an important role. Sensitivity experiments on the ocean-atmosphere coupling suggested that the coupled system is sensitive to the momentum flux parameterization as well as air-sea and air-wave coupling. Comparisons with available atmospheric and oceanic observations showed that the use of the fully coupled system provides the most skillful simulation, illustrating the benefit of using a fully coupled ocean-atmosphere-wave model for the assessment of these storm events.

Journal of Geophysical Research↗

Hierarchical programming for data storage and visualization

Graphics software is an essential tool for interpreting, analyzing, and presenting data from multidimensional hydrodynamic models used in estuarine and coastal ocean studies. The post-processing of time-varying three-dimensional model output presents unique requirements for data visualization because of the large volume of data that can be generated and the multitude of time scales that must be examined. Such data can relate to estuarine or coastal ocean environments and come from numerical models or field instruments. One useful software tool for the display, editing, visualization, and printing of graphical data is the Gr application, written by the first author for use in U.S. Geological Survey San Francisco Bay Program. The Gr application has been made available to the public via the Internet since the year 2000. The Gr application is written in the Java (Sun Microsystems, Nov. 29, 2001) programming language and uses the Extensible Markup Language standard for hierarchical data storage. Gr presents a hierarchy of objects to the user that can be edited using a common interface. Java's object-oriented capabilities allow Gr to treat data, graphics, and tools equally and to save them all to a single XML file.

Conference Paper↗

A 700-year rupture sequence of great eastern Aleutian earthquakes from tsunami modeling of stratigraphic records

Great Aleutian underthrusting earthquakes produced destructive tsunamis impacting Hawaiʻi in 1946 and 1957. Prior modeling of the 1957 tsunami deposit and runup records on eastern Aleutian and Hawaiian Islands jointly with tide-gauge observations across the Pacific Ocean constrained a rupture model with shallow slip up to 26 m along 600 km of the plate boundary. Here we implement this modeling approach to older deposits and show alternating deep and shallow megathrust slip up to 26, 32, and 22 m for great earthquakes along the same segment in the 18 th , 15 th , and 14 th centuries. All three modeled prehistoric Aleutian earthquakes produce tsunami inundation in Hawaiʻi with the most severe, 14 th century event having impacts exceeding the 1957 event. The along-dip variability of these four ruptures spanning seven centuries provides insights on earthquake cycles for engineering design and hazard assessment. The 15 th century and 1957 rupture models provide evidence for recurrence of tsunami earthquakes, which can produce disproportionately large tsunamis for a given moment magnitude due to reduced rigidity in the shallow megathrust. The 14 th and 18 th century events likely ruptured deeper regions that did not slip in 1957, suggesting potential for corresponding deeper failure in the next great eastern Aleutian earthquake.

Alaska, Hawaii↗

Coupling ice-sheet and climate models for simulation of former ice sheets

This chapter explores the development of coupled climate and ice-sheet models over the past two decades, discusses the current technical and physical capabilities of models, and identifies future work for developing a better understanding of ice-climate events that have punctuated Earth history. The chapter also illustrates the complex behavior of the climate system and the modeling challenges posed by the observations. Climate and ice-sheet models continue to improve, both in terms of model physics and technical capabilities. Regional climate model simulations should be carried out for each temporal snapshot or matrix element for improved mass–balance calculation over the ice sheets. Fully coupled atmosphere-ocean-cryosphere-land surface models are required for addressing a number of paleoclimatic puzzles, particularly with respect to millennial climate variability. The concerted effort to better understand West Antarctic Ice Sheet dynamics, and the development of subglacial hydrological models should lead to improvements in the next generation of ice-sheet models and help to address millennial-scale variability in ice-sheet/climate models.

Developments in Quaternary Sciences↗

Modeling regional coral reef responses to global warming and changes in ocean chemistry: Caribbean case study

Climatic change threatens the future of coral reefs in the Caribbean and the important ecosystem services they provide. We used a simulation model [C OMBO (“COral Mortality and Bleaching Output”)] to estimate future coral cover in the part of the eastern Caribbean impacted by a massive coral bleaching event in 2005. C OMBO calculates impacts of future climate change on coral reefs by combining impacts from long-term changes in average sea surface temperature (SST) and ocean acidification with impacts from episodic high temperature mortality (bleaching) events. We used mortality and heat dose data from the 2005 bleaching event to select historic temperature datasets, to use as a baseline for running C OMBO under different future climate scenarios and sets of assumptions. Results suggest a bleak future for coral reefs in the eastern Caribbean. For three different emissions scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC; B1, A1B, and A1FI), coral cover on most Caribbean reefs is projected to drop below 5% by the year 2035, if future mortality rates are equivalent to some of those observed in the 2005 event (50%). For a scenario where corals gain an additional 1–1.5°C of heat tolerance through a shift in the algae that live in the coral tissue, coral cover above 5% is prolonged until 2065. Additional impacts such as storms or anthropogenic damage could result in declines in coral cover even faster than those projected here. These results suggest the need to identify and preserve the locations that are likely to have a higher resiliency to bleaching to save as many remnant populations of corals as possible in the face of projected wide-spread coral loss.

Climatic Change↗

Antipodal hotspots and bipolar catastrophes: Were oceanic large-body impacts the cause?

One aspect of the hotspot distribution that has received little attention is its antipodal character. Of 45 ‘primary’ hotspots found in most hotspot compilations 22 (49%) form antipodal pairs within observed hotspot drift limits (≤ 20 mm/yr). In addition, the available ages, or possible age ranges, for both hotspots of an antipodal pair tend to be similar (≤ 10 Myr difference) or overlap. Monte Carlo simulations indicate that the antipodal primary hotspots' locations and ages are not due to chance at the > 99% confidence level ( p < 0.01). All hotspot pairs include at least one oceanic hotspot, and these are consistently opposite those hotspots related to large igneous provinces (LIPs) and continental volcanism. A mechanism of formation is considered in which minor hotspot volcanism is induced at, and flood basalt volcanism is triggered by seismic energy focused antipodal to, oceanic large-body impact sites. Because continental impacts are expected to have lower seismic efficiencies, continents possibly acted as shields to the formation of antipodal hotspot pairs. Published numerical models indicate that large oceanic impacts (10-km-diameter bolide) generate megatsunami capable of altering coastal depositional environments on a global scale. Past impact-generated megatsunami, consequently, could have left widespread stratigraphic records, possibly misinterpreted as indicating large rapid changes in eustatic sea level, and widely disrupted continental and marine sediment reservoirs responsible for abrupt changes in the isotopic composition of seawater. Phanerozoic mass extinction events, therefore, might have resulted primarily from catastrophic megatsunami in a dominantly oceanic hemisphere and the near contemporaneous effusion of vast quantities of noxious gases from flood basalt eruptions in a dominantly continental one.

Earth and Planetary Science Letters↗

Restructuring and serving web-accessible streamflow data from the NOAA National Water Model historic simulations

In 2016, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration deployed the first iteration of an operational National Water Model (NWM) to forecast the water cycle in the continental United States. With many versions, an hourly, multi-decadal historic simulation is made available to the public. In all released to date, the files containing simulated streamflow contain a snapshot of model conditions across the entire domain for a single timestep which makes accessing time series a technical and resource-intensive challenge. In the most recent release, extracting a complete streamflow time series for a single location requires managing 367,920 files (~16.2 TB). In this work we describe a reproducible process for restructuring a sequential set of NWM steamflow files for efficient time series access and provide restructured datasets for versions 1.2 (1993–2018), 2.0 (1993–2020), and 2.1 (1979–2022). These datasets have been made accessible via an OPeNDAP enabled THREDDS data server for public use and a brief analysis highlights the latest version of the model should not be assumed best for all locations. Lastly we describe an R package that expedites data retrieval with examples for multiple use-cases.

Nature, Scientific Data↗

Modeling protected species distributions and habitats to inform siting and management of pioneering ocean industries: A case study for Gulf of Mexico aquaculture

Marine Spatial Planning (MSP) provides a process that uses spatial data and models to evaluate environmental, social, economic, cultural, and management trade-offs when siting (i.e., strategically locating) ocean industries. Aquaculture is the fastest-growing food sector in the world. The United States (U.S.) has substantial opportunity for offshore aquaculture development given the size of its exclusive economic zone, habitat diversity, and variety of candidate species for cultivation. However, promising aquaculture areas overlap many protected species habitats. Aquaculture siting surveys, construction, operations, and decommissioning can alter protected species habitat and behavior. Additionally, aquaculture-associated vessel activity, underwater noise, and physical interactions between protected species and farms can increase the risk of injury and mortality. In 2020, the U.S. Gulf of Mexico was identified as one of the first regions to be evaluated for offshore aquaculture opportunities as directed by a Presidential Executive Order. We developed a transparent and repeatable method to identify aquaculture opportunity areas (AOAs) with the least conflict with protected species. First, we developed a generalized scoring approach for protected species that captures their vulnerability to adverse effects from anthropogenic activities using conservation status and demographic information. Next, we applied this approach to data layers for eight species listed under the Endangered Species Act, including five species of sea turtles, Rice’s whale, smalltooth sawfish, and giant manta ray. Next, we evaluated four methods for mathematically combining scores (i.e., Arithmetic mean, Geometric mean, Product, Lowest Scoring layer) to generate a combined protected species data layer. The Product approach provided the most logical ordering of, and the greatest contrast in, site suitability scores. Finally, we integrated the combined protected species data layer into a multi-criteria decision-making modeling framework for MSP. This process identified AOAs with reduced potential for protected species conflict. These modeling methods are transferable to other regions, to other sensitive or protected species, and for spatial planning for other ocean-uses.

PLoS ONE↗

Sensitivity of Last Glacial Maximum climate to uncertainties in tropical and subtropical ocean temperatures

The faunal and floral gradients that underlie the CLIMAP (1981) sea-surface temperature (SST) reconstructions for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) reflect ocean temperature gradients and frontal positions. The transfer functions used to reconstruct SSTs from biologic gradients are biased, however, because at the warmest sites they display inherently low sensitivity in translating fauna to SST and they underestimate SST within the euphotic zones where the pycnocline is strong. Here we assemble available data and apply a statistical approach to adjust for hypothetical biases in the faunal-based SST estimates of LGM temperature. The largest bias adjustments are distributed in the tropics (to address low sensitivity) and subtropics (to address underestimation in the euphotic zones). The resulting SSTs are generally in better agreement than CLIMAP with recent geochemical estimates of glacial-interglacial temperature changes. We conducted a series of model experiments using the GENESIS general atmospheric circulation model to assess the sensitivity of the climate system to our bias-adjusted SSTs. Globally, the new SST field results in a modeled LGM surface-air cooling relative to present of 6.4 ??C (1.9 ??C cooler than that of CLIMAP). Relative to the simulation with CLIMAP SSTs, modeled precipitation over the oceans is reduced by 0.4 mm d-1 (an anomaly -0.4 versus 0.0 mm d-1 for CLIMAP) and increased over land (an anomaly -0.2 versus -0.5 mm d-1 for CLIMAP). Regionally strong responses are induced by changes in SST gradients. Data-model comparisons indicate improvement in agreement relative to CLIMAP, but differences among terrestrial data inferences and simulated moisture and temperature remain. Our SSTs result in positive mass balance over the northern hemisphere ice sheets (primarily through reduced summer ablation), supporting the hypothesis that tropical and subtropical ocean temperatures may have played a role in triggering glacial changes at higher latitudes.

Quaternary Science Reviews↗

Multi-proxy thermal history of basin heating during Cordilleran orogenesis in the Magallanes-Austral retroarc foreland basin, Patagonian Andes

Resolving thermal histories in sedimentary basins is crucial for interpreting orogenic growth, basin burial, and tectonic processes during Cordilleran orogenesis. In the Magallanes–Austral Basin, Patagonian Andes, we integrate new (U-Th)/He thermochronology, vitrinite reflectance (%R o ), calcite-cement clumped isotope data and thermal history modelling to resolve the origin of the regionally extensive Paleogene unconformity (51°S–50°S). Thermal history modelling results require post-depositional heating of Palaeocene (Danian–Selandian) strata below the unconformity and suggest maximum burial temperatures of 87°C–101°C (55–52 Ma) and 89°C–92°C (18–16 Ma). For lower Eocene strata above the unconformity, Miocene burial temperatures (89°C–92°C) are consistent with calcite cement formation temperatures (~62°C–92°C) from carbonate clumped isotopes. Our results indicate that basin burial and heating between ca. 60 and 52 Ma were likely driven by shallowing of the subducting Farallon plate and enhanced plate coupling preceding arrival of the Farallon–Phoenix mid-ocean ridge. Subsequent basin inversion and cooling from ca. 52 to 44 Ma correspond with subduction of this mid-ocean ridge. Refined thermal models, constrained by expanded thermochronometric and organic maturation datasets, indicate that up to ~1.7–2.0 km of proximal foreland basin strata were removed during uplift and erosion across the Paleogene basin margin. A return to basin subsidence beginning ca. 44 Ma may reflect dynamic subsidence after passage of the mid-ocean ridge and renewed coupling between the fold-thrust belt and foreland basin system. Neogene thermal histories document continued subsidence, localized hot orogenic fluid flow along stratigraphic boundaries, followed by a final phase of basin inversion and cooling at ca. 18–16 Ma, which we attribute to regional uplift associated with Chile ridge subduction. Altogether, this study demonstrates that multiple thermal indices when analysed and modelled can provide clarity for tectonic and stratigraphic events that affect foreland basins.

Patagonian Andes↗

Structural profile of the northwestern Caribbean

A seismic reflection and gravity profile across the continental margin of the Yucatan Peninsula, Yucatan Basin, Cayman Ridge, and Cayman Trough suggests that sediments in the Yucatan Basin consist of a thick succession of beds dominated by turbidites that overlie a thick but irregular sequence of beds, probably dominated by pelagic deposits. The so-called “Carib beds”, present elsewhere in the Caribbean, are not evident in the part of the basin crossed by this profile. The sedimentary section rests on a acoustic basement that probably represents the top of oceanic layer 2. A gravity model indicates that the crust beneath the Yucatan Basin is thin and therefore probably is oceanic in character. The crust thickens southward under the Cayman Ridge but thins again beneath the Cayman Trough. This local thickening is consistent with the suggestion that the Cayman Ridge is a rifted part of the Nicaraguan Rise.

Earth and Planetary Science Letters↗

Phenomenological and mechanistic modeling of recreational angling behavior using creel data

Improved understanding of angling behavior in recreational fisheries can help managers account for partial controllability in systems in which angling effort is not directly regulated. Relevant aspects of angling behavior include fishing participation, site choice, and catch-and-release actions and can be considered at scales of both aggregate fishing effort and individual-decision-making. Using creel survey data collected across eight fishery seasons, we predicted aggregate angling effort (e.g., daily number of boating trips engaged in fishing) and characterized influences of individual trip-based site choice for recreational fisheries acting on fall-run Chinook salmon and coho salmon near the mouth of the Columbia River, United States of America. We applied an overdispersed Poisson likelihood-based generalized linear model with an autoregressive structure to aggregate boating effort and a multinomial logit model to trip-based site choice decisions among separate ocean and estuary fishing zones. Predictive models explained 71% and 79% of out-of-sample and in-sample variability in aggregate effort, respectively, and included the covariates weekend status, Chinook salmon catch rate, tidal range, and pre-season expectations of fish abundance. In addition to reinforcing the importance of Chinook salmon catch rate and tidal range, site choice model selection revealed influences of weather, fishery restrictions, expected fishery season lengths, and the individual-specific characteristics of boat length and guide status on decision-making. Model results provide predictive models for short-term fishery planning, highlight heterogeneity in individual decision-making, and illustrate the value of standardized creel data for evaluating angling behavior.

Oregon↗

Hydrodynamic and morphologic response of a back-barrier estuary to an extratropical storm

We investigated the hydrodynamic and morphologic response of Barnegat Bay-Little Egg Harbor, New Jersey, USA to Hurricane Sandy. We implemented a three-dimensional, coupled ocean-wave-sediment transport model of the estuary and explored the role of offshore water levels, offshore waves, local winds and waves by systematically removing forcings from a series of simulations. Offshore water levels had the largest impact on water levels in the bay while waves and local wind forcing created substantial spatial variation along the longitudinal axis of the bay. The shape of the bay and its orientation relative to the storm track influenced the response to winds and restricted the maximum water levels in the northern bay and reduced the maximum volume of surge. Basin-average hydrodynamic residence time was reduced by 40%, though its typical spatial distribution remained during the storm. Wave and current-induced bed shear stress resuspended fine sediment resulting in net erosion from the shoals with ensuing net deposition over fringing low-lying land. The net sediment exchange between the bay and the ocean was several times smaller than the exchange at the peak of the storm resulting in negligible net change in the bay volume. Overall, our results suggest that water level responses are highly sensitive to the specific orientation of storm winds relative to the estuary, thereby limiting the utility of simple inundation models. The sediment transport patterns indicate that storms are an important mechanism for redistributing sediment from shoals to fringing wetlands, while net change to sediment budget can be negligible.

New Jersey↗

Fault slip and seismic moment of the 1700 Cascadia earthquake inferred from Japanese tsunami descriptions

The 1700 Cascadia earthquake attained moment magnitude 9 according to new estimates based on effects of its tsunami in Japan, computed coseismic seafloor deformation for hypothetical ruptures in Cascadia, and tsunami modeling in the Pacific Ocean. Reports of damage and flooding show that the 1700 Casscadia tsunami reached 1-5 m heights at seven shoreline sites in Japan. Three sets of estimated heights express uncertainty about location and depth of reported flooding, landward decline in tsunami heights from shorelines, and post-1700 land-level changes. We compare each set with tsunami heights computed from six Cascadia sources. Each source is vertical seafloor displacement calculated with a three-dimensional elastic dislocation model, for three sources the rupture extends the 1100 km length of the subduction zone and differs in width and shallow dip; for the other sources, ruptures of ordinary width extend 360-670 km. To compute tsunami waveforms, we use a linear long-wave approximation with a finite difference method, and we employ modern bathymetry with nearshore grid spacing as small as 0.4 km. The various combinations of Japanese tsunami heights and Cascadia sources give seismic moment of 1-9 ?? 1022 N m, equivalent to moment magnitude 8.7-9.2. This range excludes several unquantified uncertainties. The most likely earthquake, of moment magnitude 9.0, has 19 m of coseismic slip on an offshore, full-slip zone 1100 km long with linearly decreasing slip on a downdip partial-slip zone. The shorter rupture models require up to 40 m offshore slip and predict land-level changes inconsistent with coastal paleoseismological evidence. Copyright 2003 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

Multiple climate change-driven tipping points for coastal systems

As the climate evolves over the next century, the interaction of accelerating sea level rise (SLR) and storms, combined with confining development and infrastructure, will place greater stresses on physical, ecological, and human systems along the ocean-land margin. Many of these valued coastal systems could reach “tipping points,” at which hazard exposure substantially increases and threatens the present-day form, function, and viability of communities, infrastructure, and ecosystems. Determining the timing and nature of these tipping points is essential for effective climate adaptation planning. Here we present a multidisciplinary case study from Santa Barbara, California (USA), to identify potential climate change-related tipping points for various coastal systems. This study integrates numerical and statistical models of the climate, ocean water levels, beach and cliff evolution, and two soft sediment ecosystems, sandy beaches and tidal wetlands. We find that tipping points for beaches and wetlands could be reached with just 0.25 m or less of SLR (~ 2050), with > 50% subsequent habitat loss that would degrade overall biodiversity and ecosystem function. In contrast, the largest projected changes in socioeconomic exposure to flooding for five communities in this region are not anticipated until SLR exceeds 0.75 m for daily flooding and 1.5 m for storm-driven flooding (~ 2100 or later). These changes are less acute relative to community totals and do not qualify as tipping points given the adaptive capacity of communities. Nonetheless, the natural and human built systems are interconnected such that the loss of natural system function could negatively impact the quality of life of residents and disrupt the local economy, resulting in indirect socioeconomic impacts long before built infrastructure is directly impacted by flooding.

California↗

ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT AND DRIFT, MODELED AS A VISCOUS FLUID.

A dynamic/thermodynamic numerical model of sea ice has been used to calculate the yearly cycle of sea ice thicknesses, concentrations, and velocities in the Arctic Ocean and surrounding seas. The model combines the formulations of two previous models, taking the thermodynamics and momentum equations from the model of Parkinson and Washington and adding the constitutive equation and equation of state from the model of Ling, Rasmussen, and Campbell. Simulated annually averaged ice drift vectors compare well with observed ice drift from the Arctic Ocean Buoy Program.

Ocean science and engineering↗

Stochastic model for the long-term transport of stored sediment in a river channel

We develop a stochastic model for the transport of stored sediment down a river channel. The model is based on probabilities of transition of particles among four different sediment storage reservoirs, called active (often mobilized), semiactive, inactive, and stable (hardly ever mobilized). The probabilities are derived from computed sediment residence times. Two aspects of sediment storage are investigated: flushing times of sediment out of a storage reservoir and changes in the quantity of sediment stored in different reservoirs due to seasonal sediment transport into, and out of, a reach. We apply the model to Redwood Creek, a gravel bed river in northern California. Although the Redwood Creek data set is incomplete, the application serves as an example of the sorts of analyses that can be done with the method. The application also provides insights into the sediment storage process. Sediment flushing times are highly dependent on the degree of interaction of the stable reservoir with the more mobile sediment reservoirs. The most infrequent and highest intensity storm events, which mobilize the stable reservoir, are responsible for the long-term shifts in sediment storage. Turnover times of channel sediment in all but the stable reservoir are on the order of 750 years, suggesting this is all the time needed for thorough interchange between these sediment compartments and cycling of most sediment particles from the initial reservoir to the ocean. Finally, the Markov model has adequately characterized sediment storage changes in Redwood Creek for 1947–1982, especially for the active reservoir. The model replicates field observation of the passage of a slug of sediment through the active reservoir of the middle reach of Redwood Creek in the 18 years following a major storm in 1964 that introduced large quantities of landslide debris to the channel.

California↗