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USGS2023

The context dependency of fish-habitat associations in separated karst ecoregions

Fish populations may be isolated via natural conditions in geographically separated ecoregions. Although reconnecting these populations is not a management goal, we need to understand how these populations persist across landscapes to develop meaningful conservation actions, particularly for species occupying sensitive karst ecosystems. Our study objective was to determine the physicochemical factors related to the occurrence of four spring-associated fishes. Arbuckle Uplift and Ozark Highlands ecoregions, USA. We used a hierarchical approach to identify habitat relationships at multiple spatial scales. We collected detection data using snorkeling and seining. We examined the physicochemical relationships related to the detection and occurrence of four spring-associated fishes using occupancy modeling in a Bayesian framework. We found physicochemical relationships that differed and were similar between ecoregions for several fishes. For three species, we found different water temperature relationships between ecoregions. Smallmouth bass were ubiquitous in their use of drainage areas in the Ozark Highlands but only associated with the lower network of the Arbuckle Uplift. There were several mirrored relationships between ecoregions, including an interaction between residual pool depth and water temperature, where sites with deeper pools were more likely to be occupied during warmer water temperatures. There were single-species occurrence relationships with percent vegetation and percent agriculture. Lastly, snorkeling was a more efficient sampling method compared to seining for all fishes. Our results indicate stream temperature mitigation may be possible via the maintenance of key channel morphologies, and we identify shared stressors between ecoregions. Channel mitigation to maintain reaches with deeper pools may be an important strategy for maintaining thermal refugia, particularly when considering climate change. Identifying the mechanistic underpinning of other multiscale ecological relationships would be helpful to discern if some of the different ecoregion relationships represent warning signals or interactions with unmeasured biotic or abiotic factors.

Oklahoma↗

USGS2025

Evidence for marine-driven, cyclical fluctuations in burrow-nesting seabird habitat on the Oregon Coast

Seabirds are among the most threatened birds globally, with the loss or deterioration of coastal breeding habitats posing a severe threat. Natural and anthropogenic disturbances substantially influence coastal ecosystems through erosion and vegetation loss, altering habitat for the wildlife species that depend on them. In addition to these disturbances, oceanographic processes may play an important role in shaping the vegetation at breeding habitats; however, there is limited information on how vegetative conditions for burrow nesting seabirds have changed over time, and whether these changes are related to specific oceanographic or climatic factors. The Oregon Coast National Wildlife Refuge Complex, USA (NWRC) is home to a diverse suite of 1.3 million nesting seabirds from 14 species, which provide valuable ecological, economic, and cultural services, including nutrient transfer to terrestrial habitats and ecotourism for local communities. Over the last 30 years, populations of several burrow nesting seabird species including tufted puffin ( Fratercula cirrhata ) and rhinoceros auklet ( Cerorhinca monocerata ), which breed on offshore islands, have sharply declined along the Oregon Coast. To better understand the potential factors driving these declines, we conducted a spatiotemporal analysis of an aspect of burrow nesting seabird habitat, vegetation cover, within the Oregon Coast NWRC. Specifically, we quantified vegetative cover on 16 islands from 1992 to 2022 using a combination of empirical data, historical aerial photography (1992–2005), and aerial photography from the National Agriculture Imagery Program (2005–2022). Results showed cyclical fluctuations in vegetation cover coast-wide, which were closely related to large scale oceanographic oscillations. Specifically, vegetation cover was negatively correlated with the winter Pacific Decadal Oscillation and positively correlated with the spring El Nino Southern Oscillation. We did not directly compare seabird population trends to vegetation trends; however, quantifying these long-term changes in vegetation at breeding habitats can contribute to our comprehensive understanding of the myriad factors influencing seabird population dynamics and conservation.

Oregon↗

USGS2016

Can you hear me now? Range-testing a submerged passive acoustic receiver array in a Caribbean coral reef habitat

Submerged passive acoustic technology allows researchers to investigate spatial and temporal movement patterns of many marine and freshwater species. The technology uses receivers to detect and record acoustic transmissions emitted from tags attached to an individual. Acoustic signal strength naturally attenuates over distance, but numerous environmental variables also affect the probability a tag is detected. Knowledge of receiver range is crucial for designing acoustic arrays and analyzing telemetry data. Here, we present a method for testing a relatively large-scale receiver array in a dynamic Caribbean coastal environment intended for long-term monitoring of multiple species. The U.S. Geological Survey and several academic institutions in collaboration with resource management at Buck Island Reef National Monument (BIRNM), off the coast of St. Croix, recently deployed a 52 passive acoustic receiver array. We targeted 19 array-representative receivers for range-testing by submersing fixed delay interval range-testing tags at various distance intervals in each cardinal direction from a receiver for a minimum of an hour. Using a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM), we estimated the probability of detection across the array and assessed the effect of water depth, habitat, wind, temperature, and time of day on the probability of detection. The predicted probability of detection across the entire array at 100 m distance from a receiver was 58.2% (95% CI: 44.0–73.0%) and dropped to 26.0% (95% CI: 11.4–39.3%) 200 m from a receiver indicating a somewhat constrained effective detection range. Detection probability varied across habitat classes with the greatest effective detection range occurring in homogenous sand substrate and the smallest in high rugosity reef. Predicted probability of detection across BIRNM highlights potential gaps in coverage using the current array as well as limitations of passive acoustic technology within a complex coral reef environment.

Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2018

Longevity and population age structure of the arroyo southwestern toad (Anaxyrus californicus) with drought implications

The arroyo southwestern toad is a specialized and federally endangered amphibian endemic to the coastal plains and mountains of central and southern California and northwestern Baja California. It is largely unknown how long these toads live in natural systems, how their population demographics vary across occupied drainages, and how hydrology affects age structure. We used skeletochronology to estimate the ages of adult arroyo toads in seven occupied drainages with varying surface water hydrology in southern California. We processed 179 adult toads with age estimates between 1 and 6 years. Comparisons between skeletochronological ages and known ages of PIT tagged toads showed that skeletochronology likely underestimated toad age by up to 2 years, indicating they may live to 7 or 8 years, but nonetheless major patterns were evident. Arroyo toads showed sexual size dimorphism with adult females reaching a maximum size of 12 mm greater than males. Population age structure varied among the sites. Age structure at sites with seasonally predictable surface water was biased toward younger individuals, which indicated stable recruitment for these populations. Age structures at the ephemeral sites were biased toward older individuals with cohorts roughly corresponding to higher rainfall years. These populations are driven by surface water availability, a stochastic process, and thus more unstable. Based on our estimates of toad ages, climate predictions of extreme and prolonged drought events could mean that the number of consecutive dry years could surpass the maximum life span of toads making them vulnerable to extirpation, especially in ephemeral freshwater systems. Understanding the relationship between population demographics and hydrology is essential for predicting species resilience to projected changes in weather and rainfall patterns. The arroyo toad serves as a model for understanding potential responses to climatic and hydrologic changes in Mediterranean stream systems. We recommend development of adaptive management strategies to address these threats.

California↗

USGS2019

Partitioning global change: Assessing the relative importance of changes in climate and land cover for changes in avian distribution

Understanding the relative impact of climate change and land cover change on changes in avian distribution has implications for the future course of avian distributions and appropriate management strategies. Due to the dynamic nature of climate change, our goal was to investigate the processes that shape species distributions, rather than the current distributional patterns. To this end, we analyzed changes in the distribution of Eastern Wood Pewees (Contopus virens) and Red-eyed Vireos (Vireo olivaceus) from 1997 to 2012 using Breeding Bird Survey data and dynamic correlated-detection occupancy models. We estimated the local colonization and extinction rates of these species in relation to changes in climate (hours of extreme temperature) and changes in land cover (amount of nesting habitat). We fit six nested models to partition the deviance explained by spatial and temporal components of land cover and climate. We isolated the temporal components of environmental variables because this is the essence of global change. For both species, model fit was significantly improved when we modeled vital rates as a function of spatial variation in climate and land cover. Model fit only improved insignificantly when we added temporal variation in climate and land cover to the model. Temporal variation in climate explained more deviance than temporal variation in land cover, although both combined only explained 20% (Eastern Wood Pewee) and 6% (Red-eyed Vireo) of temporal variation in vital rates. Our results showing a significant correlation between initial occupancy and environmental covariates are consistent with biological expectation and previous studies. Our results estimating a weak correlation between vital rates and temporal changes in covariates indicate that we have yet to identify the most relevant components of global change changing the distributions of these species and, more significantly, that spatially significant covariates are not necessarily driving temporal shifts in avian distributions.

Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2013

Seventy-five years of science—The U.S. Geological Survey’s Western Fisheries Research Center

As of January 2010, 75 years have elapsed since Dr. Frederic Fish initiated the pioneering research program that would evolve into today’s Western Fisheries Research Center (WFRC). Fish began his research working alone in the basement of the recently opened Fisheries Biological Laboratory on Lake Union in Seattle, Washington. WFRC’s research began under the aegis of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and ends its first 75 years as part of the U.S. Geological Survey with a staff of more than 150 biologists and support personnel and a heritage of fundamental research that has made important contributions to our understanding of the biology and ecology of the economically important fish and fish populations of the Nation. Although the current staff may rarely stop to think about it, WFRC’s antecedents extend many years into the past and are intimately involved with the history of fisheries conservation in the Western United States. Thus, WFRC Director Lyman Thorsteinson asked me to write the story of this laboratory “while there are still a few of you around who were here for some of the earlier years” to document the rich history and culture of WFRC by recognizing its many famous scientists and their achievements. This historyalso would help document WFRC’s research ‘footprint’ in the Western United States and its strategic directions. Center Director Thorsteinson concluded that WFRC’s heritage told by an emeritus scientist also would add a texture of legitimacy based on personal knowledge that will all-to-soon be lost to the WFRC and to the USGS. The WFRC story is important for the future as well as for historical reasons. It describes how we got to the place we are today by documenting the origin, original mission, and our evolving role in response to the constantly changing technical information requirements of new environmental legislation and organizational decision-making. The WFRC research program owes its existence to the policy requirements of Federal conservation legislation originating with the construction of Grand Coulee Dam in 1933. The research program was shaped by laws enacted in subsequent years such as the Federal Water Pollution Control Act (1972), National Environmental Policy Act (1973), Endangered Species Act (1974), and Northwest Power Planning Act (1980), to name only a few. The WFRC has not been constrained by direct management or regulatory responsibility for a particular fishery (such as providing sustainable catch limits data to a resource management structure). Thus, WFRC has been able to concentrate on scientific pursuits and information needs required by contemporary environmental legislation. Over the years, we have pioneered in several important areas of fisheries research including the diagnoses and control of diseases in economically important fish, effects of environmental alterations on the physiological quality and survival of Pacific salmon released from federal mitigation hatcheries, applications in biotelemetry, and the bioenergetics of predator-prey interactions in the Columbia River. The WFRC of today is a widely distributed organization in the Western United States. Knowledge of the historical connections and accomplishments of our predecessors is important beyond the sense of pride and unity it instills in the WFRC family of today. For example, a discerning reader will note the evolution of WFRC’s research from a single disciplinary focus (early era—hatchery disease problems), to multiple disciplines (middle to late era—species, populations, habitats; threatened and endangered species), to the present era (multidisciplinary and with increasing process focus). For the benefit of the current WFRC staff, more emphasis has been placed on the early years rather than on the present day because people are quite naturally more familiar with the recent past than with the research done during the first decades of WFRC’s existence. By every rational measure, the WFRC has evolved into a fisheries research organization well positioned to provide the biological information needed to support the continued conservation and management of our Nation’s living aquatic natural resources. The high standard of excellence that connects WFRC’s past to our present research program provides a firm foundation on which to base the work yet to be done. In another 75 years, WFRC will undoubtedly be a very different place than it is today, but its evolution will be forever rooted in the story of the research and of the people related here. More about the diverse fisheries research projects WFRC scientists are conducting today is available at WFRC’s website: http://wfrc.usgs.gov/.

Washington↗

USGS1998

Conspecific reproductive success and breeding habitat selection: Implications for the study of coloniality

Habitat selection is a crucial process in the life cycle of animals because it can affect most components of fitness. It has been proposed that some animals cue on the reproductive success of conspecifics to select breeding habitats. We tested this hypothesis with demographic and behavioral data from a 17-yr study of the Black-legged Kittiwake ( Rissa tridactyla ), a cliff-nesting seabird. As the hypothesis assumes, the Black-legged Kittiwake nesting environment was patchy, and the relative quality of the different patches (i.e., breeding cliffs) varied in time. The average reproductive success of the breeders of a given cliff was predictable from one year to the next, but this predictability faded after several years. The dynamic nature of cliff quality in the long term is partly explained by the autocorrelation of the prevalence of an ectoparasite that influences reproductive success. As predicted by the performance-based conspecific attraction hypothesis, the reproductive success of current breeders on a given cliff was predictive of the reproductive success of new recruits on the cliff in the following year. Breeders tended to recruit to the previous year’s most productive cliffs and to emigrate from the least productive ones. Consequently, the dynamics of breeder numbers on the cliffs were explained by local reproductive success on a year-to-year basis. Because, on average, young Black-legged Kittiwakes first breed when 4 yr old, such a relationship probably results from individual choices based on the assessment of previous-year local quality. When breeders changed breeding cliffs between years, they selected cliffs of per capita higher reproductive success. Furthermore, after accounting for the potential effects of age and sex as well as between-year variations, the effect of individual breeding performance on breeding dispersal was strongly influenced by the average reproductive success of other breeders on the same cliff. Individual breeding performance did not appear to influence the probability of dispersing for birds breeding on cliffs with high local reproductive success, whereas individual breeding performance did have a strong effect on dispersal for birds that bred on cliffs with lower local reproductive success. This suggests that the reproductive success of locally breeding conspecifics may be sufficient to override an individual’s own breeding experience when deciding whether to emigrate. These results, which are supported by behavioral observations of the role of prospecting in recruitment, suggest that both first breeders and adults rely on the reproductive success of conspecifics as “public information” to assess their own chances of breeding successfully in a given patch and to make settling decisions. A corollary prediction is that individuals should attempt to breed near successful conspecifics (a form of social attraction) in order to benefit from the same favorable local environmental conditions. Such a performance-based conspecific attraction mechanism can thus lead to an aggregative distribution of nests and may have played a role in the evolution of coloniality.

Ecology↗

USGS2022

Defining biologically relevant and hierarchically nested population units to inform wildlife management

Wildlife populations are increasingly affected by natural and anthropogenic changes that negatively alter biotic and abiotic processes at multiple spatiotemporal scales and therefore require increased wildlife management and conservation efforts. However, wildlife management boundaries frequently lack biological context and mechanisms to assess demographic data across the multiple spatiotemporal scales influencing populations. To address these limitations, we developed a novel approach to define biologically relevant subpopulations of hierarchically nested population levels that could facilitate managing and conserving wildlife populations and habitats. Our approach relied on the Spatial “K”luster Analysis by Tree Edge Removal clustering algorithm, which we applied in an agglomerative manner (bottom-to-top). We modified the clustering algorithm using a workflow and population structure tiers from least-cost paths, which captured biological inferences of habitat conditions (functional connectivity), dispersal capabilities (potential connectivity), genetic information, and functional processes affecting movements. The approach uniquely included context of habitat resources (biotic and abiotic) summarized at multiple spatial scales surrounding locations with breeding site fidelity and constraint-based rules (number of sites grouped and population structure tiers). We applied our approach to greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ), a species of conservation concern, across their range within the western United States. This case study produced 13 hierarchically nested population levels (akin to cluster levels, each representing a collection of subpopulations of an increasing number of breeding sites). These closely approximated population closure at finer ecological scales (smaller subpopulation extents with fewer breeding sites; cluster levels ≥2), where >92% of individual sage-grouse's time occurred within their home cluster. With available population monitoring data, our approaches can support the investigation of factors affecting population dynamics at multiple scales and assist managers with making informed, targeted, and cost-effective decisions within an adaptive management framework. Importantly, our approach provides the flexibility of including species-relevant context, thereby supporting other wildlife characterized by site fidelity.

Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2021

Grassification and fast-evolving fire connectivity and risk in the Sonoran Desert, United States

In the southwestern United States, non-native grass invasions have increased wildfire occurrence in deserts and the likelihood of fire spread to and from other biomes with disparate fire regimes. The elevational transition between desertscrub and montane grasslands, woodlands, and forests generally occurs at ∼1,200 masl and has experienced fast suburbanization and an expanding wildland-urban interface (WUI). In summer 2020, the Bighorn Fire in the Santa Catalina Mountains burned 486 km 2 and prompted alerts and evacuations along a 40-km stretch of WUI below 1,200 masl on the outskirts of Tucson, Arizona, a metropolitan area of >1M people. To better understand the changing nature of the WUI here and elsewhere in the region, we took a multidimensional and timely approach to assess fire dynamics along the Desertscrub-Semi-desert Grassland ecotone in the Catalina foothills, which is in various stages of non-native grass invasion. The Bighorn Fire was principally a forest fire driven by a long-history of fire suppression, accumulation of fine fuels following a wet winter and spring, and two decades of hotter droughts, culminating in the hottest and second driest summer in the 125-yr Tucson weather record. Saguaro ( Carnegia gigantea ), a giant columnar cactus, experienced high mortality. Resprouting by several desert shrub species may confer some post-fire resiliency in desertscrub. Buffelgrass and other non-native species played a minor role in carrying the fire due to the patchiness of infestation at the upper edge of the Desertscrub biome. Coupled state-and-transition fire-spread simulation models suggest a marked increase in both burned area and fire frequency if buffelgrass patches continue to expand and coalesce at the Desertscrub/Semi-desert Grassland interface. A survey of area residents six months after the fire showed awareness of buffelgrass was significantly higher among residents that were evacuated or lost recreation access, with higher awareness of fire risk, saguaro loss and declining property values, in that order. Sustained and timely efforts to document and assess fast-evolving fire connectivity due to grass invasions, and social awareness and perceptions, are needed to understand and motivate mitigation of an increasingly fire-prone future in the region.

Arizona↗

USGS2023

Effects of large-scale disturbance on animal space use: Functional responses by greater sage-grouse after megafire

Global change has altered the nature of disturbance regimes, and megafire events are increasingly common. Megafires result in immediate changes to habitat available to terrestrial wildlife over broad landscapes, yet we know surprisingly little about how such changes shape space use of sensitive species in habitat that remains. Functional responses provide a framework for understanding and predicting changes in space use following habitat alteration, but no previous studies have assessed functional responses as a consequence of megafire. We studied space use and tested for functional responses in habitat use by breeding greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) before and after landscape-level changes induced by a >40,000 ha, high-intensity megafire that burned sagebrush steppe in eastern Idaho, USA. We also incorporated functional responses into predictive resource selection functions (RSFs) to map breeding habitat before and after the fire. Megafire had strong effects on the distribution of available resources and resulted in context-dependent habitat use that was heterogeneous across different components of habitat. We observed functional responses in the use and selection of a variety of resources (shrubs and herbaceous vegetation) for both nesting and brood rearing. Functional responses in the use of nesting habitat were influenced by the overarching effect of megafire on vegetation, whereas responses during brood rearing appeared to be driven by individual variation in available resources that were conditional on nest locations. Importantly, RSFs built using data collected prior to the burn also had poor transferability for predicting space use in a post-megafire landscape. These results have strong implications for understanding and predicting how animals respond to a rapidly changing environment, given that increased severity, frequency, and extent of wildfire are consequences of global change with the capacity to reshape ecosystems. We therefore demonstrate a conceptual framework to better understand space use and aid habitat conservation for wildlife in a rapidly changing world.

Idaho↗

USGS2017

Enclosed nests may provide greater thermal than nest predation benefits compared with open nests across latitudes

Nest structure is thought to provide benefits that have fitness consequences for several taxa. Traditionally, reduced nest predation has been considered the primary benefit underlying evolution of nest structure, whereas thermal benefits have been considered a secondary or even non-existent factor. Yet, the relative roles of these factors on nest structures remain largely unexplored. Enclosed nests have a constructed or natural roof connected to sides that allow a restricted opening or tube entrance that provides cover in all directions except the entrance, whereas open nests are cups or platforms that are open above. We show that construction of enclosed nests is more common among songbirds (Passeriformes) in tropical and southern hemisphere regions than in north temperate regions. This geographic pattern may reflect selection from predation risk, under long-standing assumptions that nest predation rates are higher in southern regions and that enclosed nests reduce predation risk compared with open cup nests. We therefore compared nest predation rates between enclosed vs. open nests in 114 songbird species that do not nest in tree holes among five communities of coexisting birds, and for 205 non-hole-nesting species from the literature, across northern temperate, tropical, and southern hemisphere regions. Among coexisting species, enclosed nests had lower nest predation rates than open nests in two south temperate sites, but not in either of two tropical sites or a north temperate site. Nest predation did not differ between nest types at any latitude based on literature data. Among 319 species from both our field studies and the literature, enclosed nests did not show consistent benefits of reduced predation and, in fact, predation was not consistently higher in the tropics, contrary to long-standing perspectives. Thermal benefits of enclosed nests were indicated based on three indirect results. First, species that built enclosed nests were smaller than species using open nests both among coexisting species and among species from the literature. Smaller species lose heat fastest and thereby may gain important thermal benefits from reduced convective cooling. Second, eggs were warmed by parents for less time in species with enclosed nests, as can be expected if egg cooling rates are slower. Finally, species using enclosed nests exhibited enhanced growth of mass and wings compared with species using open nests, suggesting reduced thermoregulatory costs allowed increased energy for growth. Enclosed nests may therefore provide more consistent thermal than nest predation benefits, counter to long-standing perspectives.

Functional Ecology↗

USGS2013

Mark-resight abundance estimation under incomplete identification of marked individuals

Often less expensive and less invasive than conventional mark–recapture, so-called 'mark-resight' methods are popular in the estimation of population abundance. These methods are most often applied when a subset of the population of interest is marked (naturally or artificially), and non-invasive sighting data can be simultaneously collected for both marked and unmarked individuals. However, it can often be difficult to identify marked individuals with certainty during resighting surveys, and incomplete identification of marked individuals is potentially a major source of bias in mark-resight abundance estimators. Previously proposed solutions are ad hoc and will tend to underperform unless marked individual identification rates are relatively high (>90%) or individual sighting heterogeneity is negligible. Based on a complete data likelihood, we present an approach that properly accounts for uncertainty in marked individual detection histories when incomplete identifications occur. The models allow for individual heterogeneity in detection, sampling with (e.g. Poisson) or without (e.g. Bernoulli) replacement, and an unknown number of marked individuals. Using a custom Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to facilitate Bayesian inference, we demonstrate these models using two example data sets and investigate their properties via simulation experiments. We estimate abundance for grassland sparrow populations in Pennsylvania, USA when sampling was conducted with replacement and the number of marked individuals was either known or unknown. To increase marked individual identification probabilities, extensive territory mapping was used to assign incomplete identifications to individuals based on location. Despite marked individual identification probabilities as low as 67% in the absence of this territorial mapping procedure, we generally found little return (or need) for this time-consuming investment when using our proposed approach. We also estimate rookery abundance from Alaskan Steller sea lion counts when sampling was conducted without replacement, the number of marked individuals was unknown, and individual heterogeneity was suspected as non-negligible. In terms of estimator performance, our simulation experiments and examples demonstrated advantages of our proposed approach over previous methods, particularly when marked individual identification probabilities are low and individual heterogeneity levels are high. Our methodology can also reduce field effort requirements for marked individual identification, thus, allowing potential investment into additional marking events or resighting surveys.

Methods in Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2019

Climate, environment, and disturbance history govern resilience of western North American Forests

Before the advent of intensive forest management and fire suppression, western North American forests exhibited a naturally occurring resistance and resilience to wildfires and other disturbances. Resilience, which encompasses resistance, reflects the amount of disruption an ecosystem can withstand before its structure or organization qualitatively shift to a different basin of attraction. In fire-maintained forests, resilience to disturbance events arose primarily from vegetation pattern-disturbance process interactions at several levels of organization. Using evidence from 15 ecoregions, spanning forests from Canada to Mexico, we review the properties of forests that reinforced qualities of resilience and resistance. We show examples of multi-level landscape resilience, of feedbacks within and among levels, and how conditions have changed under climatic and management influences. We highlight geographic similarities and important differences in the structure and organization of historical landscapes, their forest types, and in the conditions that have changed resilience and resistance to abrupt or large-scale disruptions. We discuss the role of the regional climate in episodically or abruptly reorganizing plant and animal biogeography and forest resilience and resistance to disturbances. We give clear examples of these changes and suggest that managing for resilient forests is a construct that strongly depends on scale and human social values. It involves human communities actively working with the ecosystems they depend on, and the processes that shape them, to adapt landscapes, species, and human communities to climate change while maintaining core ecosystem processes and services. Finally, it compels us to embrace management approaches that incorporate ongoing disturbances and anticipated effects of climatic changes, and to support dynamically shifting patchworks of forest and non-forest. Doing so could make these shifting forest conditions and wildfire regimes less disruptive to individuals and society.

western North America↗

USGS2022

Coupling validation effort with in situ bioacoustic data improves estimating relative activity and occupancy for multiple species with cross-species misclassifications

The increasing complexity and pace of ecological change requires natural resource managers to consider entire species assemblages. Acoustic recording units (ARUs) require minimal cost and effort to deploy and inform relative activity, or encounter rates, for multiple species simultaneously. ARU-based surveys require post-processing of the recordings via software algorithms that assign a species label to each recording. The automated classification process can result in cross-species misidentifications that should be accounted for when employing statistical modelling for conservation decision-making. Using simulation and ARU-based detection counts from 17 bat species in British Columbia, Canada, we investigate three strategies for adjusting statistical inference for species misclassification: (a) ‘coupling’ ambiguous and unambiguous detections by validating a subset of survey events post-hoc, (b) using a calibration dataset on the software algorithm's (in)accuracy for species identification or (c) specifying informative Bayesian priors on classification probabilities. We explore the impact of different Bayesian prior specifications for the classification probabilities on posterior estimation. We then consider how the quantity of data validated post-hoc impacts model convergence and resulting inferences for bat species relative activity as related to nightly conditions and yearly site occupancy after accounting for site-level environmental variables. Coupled methods resulted in less bias and uncertainty when estimating relative activity and species classification probabilities relative to calibration approaches. We found that species that were difficult-to-detect and those that were often inaccurately identified by the software required more validation effort than more easily detected and/or identified species. Our results suggest that, when possible, acoustic surveys should rely on coupled validated detection information to account for false-positive detections, rather than uncoupled calibration datasets. However, if the assemblage of interest contains a large number of rarely detected or less prevalent species, an intractable amount of effort may be required, suggesting there are benefits to curating a calibration dataset that is representative of the observation process. Our findings provide insights into the practical challenges associated with statistical analyses of ARU data and possible analytical solutions to support reliable and cost-effective decision-making for wildlife conservation/management in the face of known sources of observation errors.

British Columbia↗