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At least 199 records · Page 11Linked to original sources

U. S. G. S. MODULAR GROUND-WATER FLOW MODEL: DESIGNED TO BE UNDERSTOOD AND ADAPTED.

The paper discusses a carefully designed model program and its complementary complete description of all of the physical and mathematical concepts used in the model. The model program consists of a series of independent subroutines called modules. Modules are grouped by hydrologic function into 'packages. ' A report describing the model was written in three levels. At one level the hydrologic concepts on which the model is based are explained. The second level describes how the concepts were incorporated into the program. The third level describes specific modules in sufficient depth to permit modifications to the model.

Conference Paper

Simulation of flow and sediment mobility using a multidimensional flow model for the White Sturgeon critical-habitat reach, Kootenai River near Bonners Ferry, Idaho

In 1994, the Kootenai River white sturgeon (Acipenser transmontanus) was listed as an Endangered Species as a direct result of two related observations. First, biologists observed that the white sturgeon population in the Kootenai River was declining. Second, they observed a decline in recruitment of juvenile sturgeon beginning in the 1950s with an almost total absence of recruitment since 1974, following the closure of Libby Dam in 1972. This second observation was attributed to changes in spawning and (or) rearing habitat resulting from alterations in the physical habitat, including flow regime, sediment-transport regime, and bed morphology of the river. The Kootenai River White Sturgeon Recovery Team was established to find and implement ways to improve spawning and rearing habitat used by white sturgeon. They identified the need to develop and apply a multidimensional flow model to certain reaches of the river to quantify physical habitat in a spatially distributed manner. The U.S. Geological Survey has addressed these needs by developing, calibrating, and validating a multidimensional flow model used to simulate streamflow and sediment mobility in the white sturgeon critical-habitat reach of the Kootenai River. This report describes the model and limitations, presents the results of a few simple simulations, and demonstrates how the model can be used to link physical characteristics of streamflow to biological or other habitat data. This study was conducted in cooperation with the Kootenai Tribe of Idaho along a 23-kilometer reach of the Kootenai River, including the white sturgeon spawning reach near Bonners Ferry, Idaho that is about 108 to 131 kilometers below Libby Dam. U.S. Geological Survey's MultiDimensional Surface-Water Modeling System was used to construct a flow model for the critical-habitat reach of the Kootenai River white sturgeon, between river kilometers 228.4 and 245.9. Given streamflow, bed roughness, and downstream water-surface elevation, the model computes the velocity field, water-surface elevations, and boundary shear stress throughout the modeled reach. The 17.5 kilometer model reach was subdivided into two segments on the basis of predominant grain size: a straight reach with a sand, gravel, and cobble substrate located between the upstream model boundary at river kilometer 245.9 and the upstream end of Ambush Rock at river kilometer 244.6, and a meandering reach with a predominately sand substrate located between upstream end of Ambush Rock and the downstream model boundary at river kilometer 228.4. Model cell size in the x and y (horizontal) dimensions is 5 meters by 5 meters along the computational grid centerline with 15 nodes in the z (vertical) dimension. The model was calibrated to historical streamflows evenly distributed between 141.6 and 2,548.9 cubic meters per second. The model was validated by comparing simulated velocities with velocities measured at 15 cross sections during steady streamflow. These 15 cross sections were each measured multiple (7-13) times to obtain velocities suitable for comparison to the model results. Comparison of modeled and measured velocities suggests that the model does a good job of reproducing flow patterns in the river, although some discrepancies were noted. The model was used to simulate water-surface elevation, depth, velocity, bed shear stress, and sediment mobility for Kootenai River streamflows of 170, 566, 1,130, 1,700, and 2,270 cubic meters per second (6,000, 20,000, 40,000, 60,000, and 80,000 cubic feet per second). The three lowest streamflow simulations represent a range of typical river conditions before and since the construction of Libby Dam, and the highest streamflow simulation (2,270 cubic meters per second) is approximately equal to the annual median peak streamflow prior to emplacement of Libby Dam in 1972. Streamflow greater than 566 cubic meters per second were incrementally increased by 570 cubic meters per second. For each

Scientific Investigations Report

LakeVOC; A Deterministic Model to Estimate Volatile Organic Compound Concentrations in Reservoirs and Lakes

This report documents LakeVOC, a model to estimate volatile organic compound (VOC) concentrations in lakes and reservoirs. LakeVOC represents the lake or reservoir as a two-layer system and estimates VOC concentrations in both the epilimnion and hypolimnion. The air-water flux of a VOC is characterized in LakeVOC in terms of the two-film model of air-water exchange. LakeVOC solves the system of coupled differential equations for the VOC concentration in the epilimnion, the VOC concentration in the hypolimnion, the total mass of the VOC in the lake, the volume of the epilimnion, and the volume of the hypolimnion. A series of nine simulations were conducted to verify LakeVOC representation of mixing, dilution, and gas exchange characteristics in a hypothetical lake, and two additional estimates of lake volume and MTBE concentrations were done in an actual reservoir under environmental conditions. These 11 simulations showed that LakeVOC correctly handled mixing, dilution, and gas exchange. The model also adequately estimated VOC concentrations within the epilimnion in an actual reservoir with daily input parameters. As the parameter-input time scale increased (from daily to weekly to monthly, for example), the differences between the measured-averaged concentrations and the model-estimated concentrations generally increased, especially for the hypolimnion. This may be because as the time scale is increased from daily to weekly to monthly, the averaging of model inputs may cause a loss of detail in the model estimates.

Open-File Report

MODFLOW–LGR—Documentation of ghost node local grid refinement (LGR2) for multiple areas and the boundary flow and head (BFH2) package

This report documents the addition of ghost node Local Grid Refinement (LGR2) to MODFLOW-2005, the U.S. Geological Survey modular, transient, three-dimensional, finite-difference groundwater flow model. LGR2 provides the capability to simulate groundwater flow using multiple block-shaped higher-resolution local grids (a child model) within a coarser-grid parent model. LGR2 accomplishes this by iteratively coupling separate MODFLOW-2005 models such that heads and fluxes are balanced across the grid-refinement interface boundary. LGR2 can be used in two-and three-dimensional, steady-state and transient simulations and for simulations of confined and unconfined groundwater systems. Traditional one-way coupled telescopic mesh refinement methods can have large, often undetected, inconsistencies in heads and fluxes across the interface between two model grids. The iteratively coupled ghost-node method of LGR2 provides a more rigorous coupling in which the solution accuracy is controlled by convergence criteria defined by the user. In realistic problems, this can result in substantially more accurate solutions and require an increase in computer processing time. The rigorous coupling enables sensitivity analysis, parameter estimation, and uncertainty analysis that reflects conditions in both model grids. This report describes the method used by LGR2, evaluates accuracy and performance for two-and three-dimensional test cases, provides input instructions, and lists selected input and output files for an example problem. It also presents the Boundary Flow and Head (BFH2) Package, which allows the child and parent models to be simulated independently using the boundary conditions obtained through the iterative process of LGR2.

Techniques and Methods

Geologic and geophysical models for Osage County, Oklahoma, with implications for groundwater resources

This report summarizes a three-dimensional (3-D) geologic model that was constructed to provide a framework to investigate groundwater resources of the Osage Nation in northeastern Oklahoma. This report also presents an analysis of an airborne electromagnetic (AEM) survey that assessed the spatial variation of electrical resistivity to depths as great as 300 meters in the subsurface. The report and model provide support for a countywide assessment of groundwater resources, emphasizing the Upper Pennsylvanian rock units in the shallow subsurface of central and eastern Osage County having electrical resistivity properties that may indicate aquifers. Surface outcrops and subsurface stratigraphic picks on wire-line geophysical logs of Upper Pennsylvanian–Lower Permian sedimentary rock were used to construct a 3-D model of the geologic subsurface as an aid for evaluating groundwater resources in Osage County. Quaternary alluvium and terraces along major streams and the Arkansas River are included in the geologic framework model. Data from the AEM survey were subjected to quality-control procedures, truncated at depth of investigation (DOI), and then used to build a 3-D electrical resistivity model making use of secondary and tertiary interpolation profiles between primary data profiles. The AEM data highlight westward-inclined resistivity gradients that parallel the shallow dip of bedrock strata; bodies have resistivity >30 ohm-meters, and extend as much as 10 kilometers (km) down the dip of host geologic units. Volume analysis and internal imaging of an integrated 3-D geology and electrical resistivity model give a proxy for likely aquifer units with large relative volumes of high resistivity: Quaternary alluvium, Elgin Sandstone Lentil in the upper part of the Vamoosa Group, Tallant Formation, and parts of a combined Wann-Iola-Chanute Formation. Less voluminous, high-resistivity bodies correspond to intervals in the lower part of the Vamoosa Group in the east-central part of the county and probable limestone intervals in the upper part of the Vanoss Group in the northwest part of the county. Northwestern and eastern troughs of potable water previously defined for central Osage County generally correspond to down-dip projections of high-resistivity bodies associated with the Elgin Sandstone Lentil of the Vamoosa Group and Tallant Formation, respectively.

Oklahoma

Transient calibration of a groundwater-flow model of Chimacum Creek Basin and vicinity, Jefferson County, Washington: a supplement to Scientific Investigations Report 2013-5160

A steady-state groundwater-flow model described in Scientific Investigations Report 2013-5160, ”Numerical Simulation of the Groundwater-Flow System in Chimacum Creek Basin and Vicinity, Jefferson County, Washington” was developed to evaluate potential future impacts of growth and of water-management strategies on water resources in the Chimacum Creek Basin. This supplement to that report describes the unsuccessful attempt to perform a calibration to transient conditions on the model. The modeled area is about 64 square miles on the Olympic Peninsula in northeastern Jefferson County, Washington. The geologic setting for the model area is that of unconsolidated deposits of glacial and interglacial origin typical of the Puget Sound Lowlands. The hydrogeologic units representing aquifers are Upper Aquifer (UA, roughly corresponding to recessional outwash) and Lower Aquifer (LA, roughly corresponding to advance outwash). Recharge from precipitation is the dominant source of water to the aquifer system; discharge is primarily to marine waters below sea level and to Chimacum Creek and its tributaries. The model is comprised of a grid of 245 columns and 313 rows; cells are a uniform 200 feet per side. There are six model layers, each representing one hydrogeologic unit: (1) Upper Confining unit (UC); (2) Upper Aquifer unit (UA); (3) Middle Confining unit (MC); (4) Lower Aquifer unit (LA); (5) Lower Confining unit (LC); and (6) Bedrock unit (OE). The transient simulation period (October 1994–September 2009) was divided into 180 monthly stress periods to represent temporal variations in recharge, discharge, and storage. An attempt to calibrate the model to transient conditions was unsuccessful due to instabilities stemming from oscillations in groundwater discharge to and recharge from streamflow in Chimacum Creek. The model as calibrated to transient conditions has mean residuals and standard errors of 0.06 ft ±0.45 feet for groundwater levels and 0.48 ± 0.06 cubic feet per second for flows. Although the expected seasonal trends were observed in model results, the typical observed annual variation of groundwater levels of about 2 feet was not. Streamflow at the most downstream observation point was about three times larger than simulated streamflow. Because the transient version of the model proved inherently unstable, it was not used to simulate forecast conditions for alternate hydrologic or anthropogenic changes. Adaptation of alternate stream simulation packages, such as RIV, or newer versions of MODFLOW, such as MODFLOW-NWT, could possibly assist with achieving calibration to transient conditions.

Washington

Sensitivity of Earthquake Loss Estimates to Source Modeling Assumptions and Uncertainty

Introduction: This report explores how uncertainty in an earthquake source model may affect estimates of earthquake economic loss. Specifically, it focuses on the earthquake source model for the San Francisco Bay region (SFBR) created by the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities. The loss calculations are made using HAZUS-MH, a publicly available computer program developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) for calculating future losses from earthquakes, floods and hurricanes within the United States. The database built into HAZUS-MH includes a detailed building inventory, population data, data on transportation corridors, bridges, utility lifelines, etc. Earthquake hazard in the loss calculations is based upon expected (median value) ground motion maps called ShakeMaps calculated for the scenario earthquake sources defined in WGCEP. The study considers the effect of relaxing certain assumptions in the WG02 model, and explores the effect of hypothetical reductions in epistemic uncertainty in parts of the model. For example, it addresses questions such as what would happen to the calculated loss distribution if the uncertainty in slip rate in the WG02 model were reduced (say, by obtaining additional geologic data)? What would happen if the geometry or amount of aseismic slip (creep) on the region's faults were better known? And what would be the effect on the calculated loss distribution if the time-dependent earthquake probability were better constrained, either by eliminating certain probability models or by better constraining the inherent randomness in earthquake recurrence? The study does not consider the effect of reducing uncertainty in the hazard introduced through models of attenuation and local site characteristics, although these may have a comparable or greater effect than does source-related uncertainty. Nor does it consider sources of uncertainty in the building inventory, building fragility curves, and other assumptions adopted in the loss calculations. This is a sensitivity study aimed at future regional earthquake source modelers, so that they may be informed of the effects on loss introduced by modeling assumptions and epistemic uncertainty in the WG02 earthquake source model.

Open-File Report

A latest Pleistocene and Holocene composite tephrostratigraphic framework for northeastern North America

Lakes and bogs in northeastern North America preserve tephra deposits sourced from multiple volcanic systems in the Northern Hemisphere. However, most studies of these deposits focus on specific Holocene intervals and the latest Pleistocene, providing snapshots rather than a full picture. We combine new data with previous work, supplemented by a broad review of the characteristics and ages of potential source regions and volcanoes, to develop the first composite tephrostratigraphic framework covering the last ~14,000 years for this region. We report new cryptotephra records from three ombrotrophic peat bogs—Irwin Smith (Michigan), Bloomingdale (New York), and Sidney Bog (Maine)—as well as new analyses and age models from previously reported sites, Nordan’s Pond Bog (Newfoundland) and Thin-Ice Pond (Nova Scotia). A new tephra (Iliinsky) from the NGRIP and GRIP ice cores is also presented as it can be correlated to new data from these terrestrial records and helps validate radiocarbon age models. We identify 21 new tephra in addition to the 15 already known, several of which cover the entire region – the White River Ash east, Newberry Pumice, Ruppert (NDN230), and Mazama. For the first time we find Mount St. Helens Yn (ca. 3660 cal yr BP) and a set P tephra (~3000–2550 cal yr BP), and confirm the presence of Jala Pumice from Volcan Ceboruco, Mexico, and KS1 from Ksudach volcano, Kamchatka. We describe new “ultra-distal” tephra, including the early Holocene KS 2 eruption, and propose correlations to volcanoes Iliinsky and Shiveluch of Kamchatka, and Ushishir of the Kurile Islands. Not all of these tephra represent large eruptions, with several plausible correlations to sub-Plinian events. Using Bayesian age-modeling, we present new age estimates for the newly described tephra, for tephra with previously poor age control, and for several proximal correlatives. Overall, we demonstrate northeastern North America’s importance for providing transcontinental linkages between paleoenvironmental records and providing insights into ash distribution from different styles and sizes of eruptions.

northeastern North America

Simulation of the Groundwater-Flow System in Pierce, Polk, and St. Croix Counties, Wisconsin

Groundwater is the sole source of residential water supply in Pierce, Polk, and St. Croix Counties, Wisconsin. A regional three-dimensional groundwater-flow model and three associated demonstration inset models were developed to simulate the groundwater-flow systems in the three-county area. The models were developed by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the three county governments. The objectives of the regional model of Pierce, Polk, and St. Croix Counties were to improve understanding of the groundwaterflow system and to develop a tool suitable for evaluating the effects of potential water-management programs. The regional groundwater-flow model described in this report simulates the major hydrogeologic features of the modeled area, including bedrock and surficial aquifers, groundwater/surface-water interactions, and groundwater withdrawals from high-capacity wells. Results from the regional model indicate that about 82 percent of groundwater in the three counties is from recharge within the counties; 15 percent is from surface-water sources, consisting primarily of recirculated groundwater seepage in areas with abrupt surface-water-level changes, such as near waterfalls, dams, and the downgradient side of reservoirs and lakes; and 4 percent is from inflow across the county boundaries. Groundwater flow out of the counties is to streams (85 percent), outflow across county boundaries (14 percent), and pumping wells (1 percent). These results demonstrate that the primary source of groundwater withdrawn by pumping wells is water that recharges within the counties and would otherwise discharge to local streams and lakes. Under current conditions, the St. Croix and Mississippi Rivers are groundwater discharge locations (gaining reaches) and appear to function as 'fully penetrating' hydraulic boundaries such that groundwater does not cross between Wisconsin and Minnesota beneath them. Being hydraulic boundaries, however, they can change in response to water withdrawals. Tributary rivers act as 'partially penetrating' hydraulic boundaries such that groundwater can flow underneath them through the deep sandstone aquifers. The model also demonstrates the effects of development on groundwater in the study area. Water-level declines since predevelopment (no withdrawal wells) are most pronounced where pumping is greatest and flow between layered aquifers is impeded by confining units or faults. The maximum simulated water-level decline is about 40 feet in the deep Mount Simon aquifer below the city of Hudson, Wisconsin. Three inset models were extracted from the regional model to demonstrate the process and additional capabilities of the U.S. Geological Survey MODFLOW code. Although the inset models were designed to provide information about the groundwater-flow system, results from the inset models are presented for demonstration purposes only and are not sufficiently detailed or calibrated to be used for decisionmaking purposes without refinement. Simulation of groundwater/lake-water interaction around Twin Lakes near Roberts, in St. Croix County, Wisconsin, showed that groundwater represents approximately 5 to 20 percent of the overall lake-water budget. Groundwater-contributing areas to streams in western Pierce County are generally similar in size to the surface-water-contributing areas but do not necessarily correspond to the same land area. Transient streamflow simulations of Osceola Creek in Polk County demonstrate how stream base flow can be influenced not only by seasonal precipitation and recharge variability but also by systematic changes to the system, such as groundwater withdrawal from wells.

Scientific Investigations Report

Simulation of the regional groundwater-flow system of the Menominee Indian Reservation, Wisconsin

A regional, two-dimensional, steady-state groundwater-flow model was developed to simulate the groundwater-flow system and groundwater/surface-water interactions within the Menominee Indian Reservation. The model was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Menominee Indian Tribe of Wisconsin, to contribute to the fundamental understanding of the region’s hydrogeology. The objectives of the regional model were to improve understanding of the groundwater-flow system, including groundwater/surface-water interactions, and to develop a tool suitable for evaluating the effects of potential regional water-management programs. The computer code GFLOW was used because of the ease with which the model can simulate groundwater/surface-water interactions, provide a framework for simulating regional groundwater-flow systems, and be refined in a stepwise fashion to incorporate new data and simulate groundwater-flow patterns at multiple scales. Simulations made with the regional model reproduce groundwater levels and stream base flows representative of recent conditions (1970–2013) and illustrate groundwater-flow patterns with maps of (1) the simulated water table and groundwater-flow directions, (2) probabilistic areas contributing recharge to high-capacity pumped wells, and (3) estimation of the extent of infiltrated wastewater from treatment lagoons. The groundwater-flow model described in this report simulates the major hydrogeologic features of the modeled area, including surficial unconsolidated aquifers, groundwater/surface-water interactions, and groundwater withdrawals from existing high-capacity production wells. Areas contributing recharge to pumped high-capacity wells on the Menominee Indian Reservation were delineated by tracking simulated water particles from the water table to wells in combination with Monte Carlo techniques, and maps of the probability of capture for each well nest were produced. Groundwater-agebased areas contributing recharge to wells were simulated by using the calibrated set of parameters and porosity values adjusted to account for bias in simulated saturated thickness. Simulations were performed for current (2013) pumping rates. The simulations show a range in sensitivity of the simulated areas contributing recharge to wells given the parameters evaluated through the Monte Carlo analysis. The areas contributing recharge to supply wells for the villages of Zoar and Neopit are long and narrow, with a sharp gradation from high to low probability of capture. The areas contributing recharge to supply wells for Middle Village and the village of Keshena exhibit a sharp gradation from high to low probability over a relatively small area between the well and a local groundwater mound. The highest probability areas contributing recharge to the supply wells for the Villages of Onekewat and Redwing are in the immediate vicinity of the wells. These wells also have an extensive area with low probability for capturing water that is likely due to a locally low hydraulic gradient and the large degree of uncertainty associated with the lakebed resistance parameters that control interaction between groundwater and local lakes. Additional field investigations and associated local model refinements would facilitate further reductions in uncertainty associated with simulated areas contributing recharge to the wells. The likely extent of the Neopit wastewater plume was simulated by using the groundwater-flow model and Monte Carlo techniques to evaluate the sensitivity of predictive simulations to a range of model parameter values. Wastewater infiltrated from the currently operating lagoons flows predominantly south toward Tourtillotte Creek. Some of the infiltrated wastewater is simulated as having a low probability of flowing beneath Tourtillotte Creek to the nearby West Branch Wolf River. Results for the probable extent of the wastewater plume are considered to be qualitative because the method only considers advective flow and does not account for processes affecting contaminant transport in porous media. Therefore, results for the probable extent of the wastewater plume are sensitive to the number of particles used to represent flow from the lagoon and the resolution of a synthetic grid used for the analysis. Nonetheless, it is expected that the qualitative results may be of use for identifying potential downgradient areas of concern that can then be evaluated using the quantitative “area contributing recharge to wells” method or traditional contaminant-transport simulations.

Wisconsin

Four models used for numerical simulation of a borehole radar antenna

In this report are four different models that represent an antenna used by personnel at the U.S. Geological Survey for crosswell investigations. The four models vary in complexity and concomitantly the accuracy with which they represent the actual antenna. These models are used in numerical simulations of the antenna to determine how it radiates radar waves.

Open-File Report

Numerical model of the groundwater-flow system near the southeastern part of Puget Sound, Washington

Groundwater flow in the active model area (AMA) was simulated using a groundwater-flow model. A steady-state model version of the model simulates equilibrium conditions, and a transient model version simulates monthly variability. The model corresponds to the physical and temporal dimensions of the conceptual model and groundwater budget. The steady-state model version represents average conditions for an 11-year period (January 1, 2005–December 31, 2015), and the transient model represents monthly hydrologic variability within that period. The 13-layer model was constructed using MODFLOW-NWT with a uniformly spaced grid consisting of 416 rows, 433 columns, and cells with a horizontal dimension of 500 feet (ft) on a side. The model was calibrated to measured values of water levels in wells and lakes and estimated base flow for selected streamflow measurement stations, commonly referred to as streamgages. Model calibration was accomplished using a combination of manual and automatic methods, including the Model-Independent Parameter Estimation (PEST) program that adjusted model input parameters with the aim of minimizing the difference between estimated and model-simulated values of hydraulic head and base flow. Model boundary conditions consist of all simulated groundwater inflow to and outflow from the AMA. For example, a stream reach that simulates a gain from or loss to groundwater is a boundary condition that allows water to exit or enter, respectively, the groundwater system. Other boundary conditions include springs, seeps, precipitation recharge, groundwater exchange with lakes and Puget Sound, and groundwater pumping. A comparison of the estimated groundwater budget to that simulated by the steady-state model version indicates that the relative percentages of total inflow or total outflow for six major categories of boundary conditions are similar for the two budgets. The model was used to simulate three suites of scenarios of potential drought and water-use changes. Scenario 1 suite consisted of the steady-state model version that was run with 0, 15, 20, and 25 percent reduction of precipitation recharge to assess the corresponding reductions in base flow with decreasing recharge. The last simulation for the scenario 1 suite consisted of the transient model version simulating 3 years of consecutive seasonal drought, defined by the months of May through September, to assess the corresponding base-flow reductions. Scenario 2 suite consisted of the steady-state model version with all simulated groundwater use removed, compared with a simulation that includes current groundwater use to evaluate changes to potentiometric surfaces and base flows. Scenario 3 suite consisted of a transient model version of the model that simulated pumping increases for four different categories of water-supply wells (compared to no pumping increases) to evaluate resulting reductions in base flow. Although, these scenarios provide examples of model applications and useful insights, many other scenarios could be simulated. A description of how to download the model is described in the body of this report. Uncertainty is associated with most model inputs. Groundwater levels, lake levels, and land-surface altitudes are relatively certain; other model inputs are far less certain, including precipitation recharge, base flow, hydraulic properties, water use, and the three-dimensional structure of subsurface hydrogeologic units. Models are useful not because of high levels of accuracy of all model inputs, but because they combine the best information and estimates available, thereby providing the best predictions available related to physical processes. The model described in this report simulates groundwater flow on a regional scale, which has inherent limitations for simulating hydrologic scenarios at local scales. Model structures and inputs were generalized to be consistent with this regional scale. For example, the actual groundwater system has much greater heterogeneity of hydraulic conductivity than is possible within the model’s degrees of freedom. Variations in hydraulic gradients over distances less than 500 ft cannot be simulated. The distances between model features, such as a pumping well and a stream, must be placed at 500-ft intervals and are co-located if both features are within the same model cell.

Washington

Tectonic and metallogenic model for northeast Asia

This document describes the digital files in this report that contains a tectonic and metallogenic model for Northeast Asia. The report also contains background materials. This tectonic and metallogenic model and other materials on this report are derived from (1) an extensive USGS Professional Paper, 1765, on the metallogenesis and tectonics of Northeast Asia that is available on the Internet at http://pubs.usgs.gov/pp/1765/; and (2) the Russian Far East parts of an extensive USGS Professional Paper, 1697, on the metallogenesis and tectonics of the Russian Far East, Alaska, and the Canadian Cordillera that is available on the Internet at http://pubs.usgs.gov/pp/pp1697/. The major purpose of the tectonic and metallogenic model is to provide, in movie format, a colorful summary of the complex geology, tectonics, and metallogenesis of the region. To accomplish this goal four steps were taken: (1) 13 time-stage diagrams, from the late Neoproterozoic (850 Ma) through the present (0 Ma), were adapted, generalized, and transformed into color static time-stage diagrams; (2) the 13 time-stage diagrams were placed in a computer morphing program to produce the model; (3) the model was examined and each diagram was successively adapted to preceding and subsequent diagrams to match the size and surface expression of major geologic units; and (4) the final version of the model was produced in successive iterations of steps 2 and 3. The tectonic and metallogenic model and associated materials in this report are derived from a project on the major mineral deposits, metallogenesis, and tectonics of the Northeast Asia and from a preceding project on the metallogenesis and tectonics of the Russian Far East, Alaska, and the Canadian Cordillera. Both projects provide critical information on bedrock geology and geophysics, tectonics, major metalliferous mineral resources, metallogenic patterns, and crustal origin and evolution of mineralizing systems for this region. The major scientific goals and benefits of the projects are to: (1) provide a comprehensive international data base on the mineral resources of the region that is the first extensive knowledge available in English; (2) provide major new interpretations of the origin and crustal evolution of mineralizing systems and their host rocks, thereby enabling enhanced, broad-scale tectonic reconstructions and interpretations; and (3) promote trade and scientific and technical exchanges between North America and eastern Asia.

Summit, Colorado

Methods for converting continuous shrubland ecosystem component values to thematic National Land Cover Database classes

The National Land Cover Database (NLCD) provides thematic land cover and land cover change data at 30-meter spatial resolution for the United States. Although the NLCD is considered to be the leading thematic land cover/land use product and overall classification accuracy across the NLCD is high, performance and consistency in the vast shrub and grasslands of the Western United States is lower than desired. To address these issues and fulfill the needs of stakeholders requiring more accurate rangeland data, the USGS has developed a method to quantify these areas in terms of the continuous cover of several cover components. These components include the cover of shrub, sagebrush ( Artemisia spp), big sagebrush ( Artemisia tridentata spp.), herbaceous, annual herbaceous, litter, and bare ground, and shrub and sagebrush height. To produce maps of component cover, we collected field data that were then associated with spectral values in WorldView-2 and Landsat imagery using regression tree models. The current report outlines the procedures and results of converting these continuous cover components to three thematic NLCD classes: barren, shrubland, and grassland. To accomplish this, we developed a series of indices and conditional models using continuous cover of shrub, bare ground, herbaceous, and litter as inputs. The continuous cover data are currently available for two large regions in the Western United States. Accuracy of the “cross-walked” product was assessed relative to that of NLCD 2011 at independent validation points ( n =787) across these two regions. Overall thematic accuracy of the “cross-walked” product was 0.70, compared to 0.63 for NLCD 2011. The kappa value was considerably higher for the “cross-walked” product at 0.41 compared to 0.28 for NLCD 2011. Accuracy was also evaluated relative to the values of training points ( n =75,000) used in the development of the continuous cover components. Again, the “cross-walked” product outperformed NLCD 2011, with an overall accuracy of 0.81, compared to 0.66 for NLCD 2011. These results demonstrated that our continuous cover predictions and models were successful in increasing thematic classification accuracy in Western United States shrublands. We plan to directly use the “cross-walked” product, where available, in the NLCD 2016 product.

Open-File Report

Self-reporting bias in Chinook salmon sport fisheries in Idaho: implications for roving creel surveys

Self-reporting bias in sport fisheries of Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha in Idaho was quantified by comparing observed and angler-reported data. A total of 164 observed anglers fished for 541 h and caught 74 Chinook Salmon. Fifty-eight fish were harvested and 16 were released. Anglers reported fishing for 604 h, an overestimate of 63 h. Anglers reported catching 66 fish; four less harvested and four less released fish were reported than observed. A Monte Carlo simulation revealed that when angler-reported data were used, total catch was underestimated by 14–15 fish (19–20%) using the ratio-of-means estimator to calculate mean catch rate. Negative bias was reduced to six fish (8%) when the means-of-ratio estimator was used. Multiple linear regression models to predict reporting bias in time fished had poor predictive value. However, actual time fished and a categorical covariate indicating whether the angler fished continuously during their fishing trip were two variables that were present in all of the top a priori models evaluated. Underreporting of catch and overreporting of time fished by anglers present challenges when managing Chinook Salmon sport fisheries. However, confidence intervals were near target levels and using more liberal definitions of angling when estimating effort in creel surveys may decrease sensitivity to bias in angler-reported data.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management

Water-quality modeling of Klamath Straits Drain recirculation, a Klamath River wetland, and 2011 conditions for the Link River to Keno Dam reach of the Klamath River, Oregon

The upper Klamath River and adjacent Lost River are interconnected basins in south-central Oregon and northern California. Both basins have impaired water quality with Total Maximum Daily Loads (TMDLs) in progress or approved. In cooperation with the Bureau of Reclamation, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and Watercourse Engineering, Inc., have conducted modeling and research to inform management of these basins for multiple purposes, including agriculture, endangered species protection, wildlife refuges, and adjacent and downstream water users. A water-quality and hydrodynamic model (CE-QUAL-W2) of the Link River to Keno Dam reach of the Klamath River for 2006–09 is one of the tools used in this work. The model can simulate stage, flow, water velocity, ice cover, water temperature, specific conductance, suspended sediment, nutrients, organic matter in bed sediment and the water column, three algal groups, three macrophyte groups, dissolved oxygen, and pH. This report documents two model scenarios and a test of the existing model applied to year 2011, which had exceptional water quality. The first scenario examined the water-quality effects of recirculating Klamath Straits Drain flows into the Ady Canal, to conserve water and to decrease flows from the Klamath Straits Drain to the Klamath River. The second scenario explicitly incorporated a 2.73×10 6 m 2 (675 acre) off-channel connected wetland into the CE-QUAL-W2 framework, with the wetland operating from May 1 through October 31. The wetland represented a managed treatment feature to decrease organic matter loads and process nutrients. Finally, the summer of 2011 showed substantially higher dissolved-oxygen concentrations in the Link-Keno reach than in other recent years, so the Link-Keno model (originally developed for 2006–09) was run with 2011 data as a test of model parameters and rates and to develop insights regarding the reasons for the improved water-quality conditions.

Oregon

Abundance Trends and Status of the Little Colorado River Population of Humpback Chub: An Update Considering Data From 1989-2008

Mark-recapture methods have been used for the past two decades to assess trends in adult abundance and recruitment of the Little Colorado River (LCR) population of humpback chub. These methods indicate that the adult population declined through the 1980s and early 1990s but has been increasing for the past decade. Recruitment appears also to have increased, particularly in the 2003-4 period. Considering a range of assumed natural mortality-rates and magnitude of ageing error, it is unlikely that there are currently less than 6,000 adults or more than 10,000 adults. Our best estimate of the current adult (age 4 years or more) population is approximately 7,650 fish. Recent humpback chub assessments using the Age-Structured Mark-Recapture model (ASMR) and reported in 2006 (Melis and others, 2006) and 2008 (Coggins, 2008a,b) have provided abundance and recruitment trend estimates that have changed progressively over time as more data are considered by the model. The general pattern of change implies a less severe decline in adult abundance during the late 1980s through early 1990s, with attendant changes in recruitment supporting this demographic pattern. We have been concerned that these changes are not indicative of the true population and may be associated with a 'retrospective' bias as additional data are included in the ASMR model. To investigate this possibility, we developed a realistic individual-based simulation model (IBM) to generate replicate artificial data sets with similar characteristics to the true humpback chub data. The artificial data have known abundance trends and we analyzed these data with ASMR. On the basis of these simulations, we believe that errors in assigning age (and therefore brood-year) to fish based on their length are likely to have caused the retrospective bias pattern seen in the assessments and to have caused both less severe trends in the adult abundance estimates and progressively more severe downward bias in estimates of adult mortality-rates. This 'smearing', or assignment of fish from a single brood-year into multiple incorrect brood-years, is a result of variation in growth rates. The IBM simulations indicate that as a result of this error source, the best estimates of abundance and recruitment for any calendar year are those obtained from data collected previous to and within a year or two after each calendar year.

Open-File Report

Final report for sea-level rise response modeling for San Francisco Bay estuary tidal marshes

The International Panel on Climate Change has identified coastal ecosystems as areas that will be disproportionally affected by climate change. Current sea-level rise projections range widely with 0.57 to 1.9 meters increase in mea sea level by 2100. The expected accelerated rate of sea-level rise through the 21 st century will put many coastal ecosystems at risk, especially those in topographically low-gradient areas. We assessed marsh accretion and plant community state changes through 2100 at 12 tidal salt marshes around San Francisco Bay estuary with a sea-level rise response model. Detailed ground elevation, vegetation, and water level data were collected at all sites between 2008 and 2011 and used as model inputs. Sediment cores (taken by Callaway and others, 2012) at four sites around San Francisco Bay estuary were used to estimate accretion rates. A modification of the Callaway and others (1996) model, the Wetland Accretion Rate Model for Ecosystem Resilience (WARMER), was utilized to run sea-level rise response models for all sites. With a mean sea level rise of 1.24 m by 2100, WARMER projected that the vast majority, 95.8 percent (1,942 hectares), of marsh area in our study will lose marsh plant communities by 2100 and to transition to a relative elevation range consistent with mudflat habitat. Three marshes were projected to maintain marsh vegetation to 2100, but they only composed 4.2 percent (85 hectares) of the total marsh area surveyed.

California