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At least 199 records · Page 11Linked to original sources

Earthquake rupture process recreated from a natural fault surface

What exactly happens on the rupture surface as an earthquake nucleates, spreads, and stops? We cannot observe this directly, and models depend on assumptions about physical conditions and geometry at depth. We thus measure a natural fault surface and use its 3D coordinates to construct a replica at 0.1 m resolution to obviate geometry uncertainty. We can recreate stick-slip behavior on the resulting finite element model that depends solely on observed fault geometry. We clamp the fault together and apply steady state tectonic stress until seismic slip initiates and terminates. Our recreated M~1 earthquake initiates at contact points where there are steep surface gradients because infinitesimal lateral displacements reduce clamping stress most efficiently there. Unclamping enables accelerating slip to spread across the surface, but the fault soon jams up because its uneven, anisotropic shape begins to juxtapose new high-relief sticking points. These contacts would ultimately need to be sheared off or strongly deformed before another similar earthquake could occur. Our model shows that an important role is played by fault-wall geometry, though we do not include effects of varying fluid pressure or exotic rheologies on the fault surfaces. We extrapolate our results to large fault systems using observed self-similarity properties, and suggest that larger ruptures might begin and end in a similar way, though the scale of geometrical variation in fault shape that can arrest a rupture necessarily scales with magnitude. In other words, fault segmentation may be a magnitude dependent phenomenon and could vary with each subsequent rupture.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth

Time-dependent seismic tomography

Of methods for measuring temporal changes in seismic-wave speeds in the Earth, seismic tomography is among those that offer the highest spatial resolution. 3-D tomographic methods are commonly applied in this context by inverting seismic wave arrival time data sets from different epochs independently and assuming that differences in the derived structures represent real temporal variations. This assumption is dangerous because the results of independent inversions would differ even if the structure in the Earth did not change, due to observational errors and differences in the seismic ray distributions. The latter effect may be especially severe when data sets include earthquake swarms or aftershock sequences, and may produce the appearance of correlation between structural changes and seismicity when the wave speeds are actually temporally invariant. A better approach, which makes it possible to assess what changes are truly required by the data, is to invert multiple data sets simultaneously, minimizing the difference between models for different epochs as well as the rms arrival-time residuals. This problem leads, in the case of two epochs, to a system of normal equations whose order is twice as great as for a single epoch. The direct solution of this system would require twice as much memory and four times as much computational effort as would independent inversions. We present an algorithm, tomo4d, that takes advantage of the structure and sparseness of the system to obtain the solution with essentially no more effort than independent inversions require. No claim to original US government works Journal compilation ?? 2010 RAS.

Geophysical Journal International

Semiautomated tremor detection using a combined cross-correlation and neural network approach

Despite observations of tectonic tremor in many locations around the globe, the emergent phase arrivals, low‒amplitude waveforms, and variable event durations make automatic detection a nontrivial task. In this study, we employ a new method to identify tremor in large data sets using a semiautomated technique. The method first reduces the data volume with an envelope cross‒correlation technique, followed by a Self‒Organizing Map (SOM) algorithm to identify and classify event types. The method detects tremor in an automated fashion after calibrating for a specific data set, hence we refer to it as being “semiautomated”. We apply the semiautomated detection algorithm to a newly acquired data set of waveforms from a temporary deployment of 13 seismometers near Cholame, California, from May 2010 to July 2011. We manually identify tremor events in a 3 week long test data set and compare to the SOM output and find a detection accuracy of 79.5%. Detection accuracy improves with increasing signal‒to‒noise ratios and number of available stations. We find detection completeness of 96% for tremor events with signal‒to‒noise ratios above 3 and optimal results when data from at least 10 stations are available. We compare the SOM algorithm to the envelope correlation method of Wech and Creager and find the SOM performs significantly better, at least for the data set examined here. Using the SOM algorithm, we detect 2606 tremor events with a cumulative signal duration of nearly 55 h during the 13 month deployment. Overall, the SOM algorithm is shown to be a flexible new method that utilizes characteristics of the waveforms to identify tremor from noise or other seismic signals.

California

Impact of pore fluid chemistry on fine-grained sediment fabric and compressibility

Fines, defined here as grains or particles, less than 75 μm in diameter, exist nearly ubiquitously in natural sediment, even those classified as coarse. Macroscopic sediment properties, such as compressibility, which relates applied effective stress to the resulting sediment deformation, depend on the fabric of fines. Unlike coarse grains, fines have sizes and masses small enough to be more strongly influenced by electrical interparticle forces than by gravity. These electrical forces acting through pore fluids are influenced by pore fluid chemistry changes. Macroscopic property dependence on pore fluid chemistry must be accounted for in sediment studies involving subsurface flow and sediment stability analyses, as well as in engineered flow situations such as groundwater pollutant remediation, hydrocarbon migration, or other energy resource extraction applications. This study demonstrates how the liquid limit‐based electrical sensitivity index can be used to predict sediment compressibility changes due to pore fluid chemistry changes. Laboratory tests of electrical sensitivity, sedimentation, and compressibility illustrate mechanisms linking microscale and macroscale processes for selected pure, end‐member fines. A specific application considered here is methane extraction via depressurization of gas hydrate‐bearing sediment, which causes a dramatic pore water salinity drop concurrent with sediment being compressed by the imposed effective stress increase.

Journal of Geophysical Research

Ionospheric current source modeling and global geomagnetic induction using ground geomagnetic observatory data

Long-period global-scale electromagnetic induction studies of deep Earth conductivity are based almost exclusively on magnetovariational methods and require accurate models of external source spatial structure. We describe approaches to inverting for both the external sources and three-dimensional (3-D) conductivity variations and apply these methods to long-period ( T ≥1.2 days) geomagnetic observatory data. Our scheme involves three steps: (1) Observatory data from 60 years (only partly overlapping and with many large gaps) are reduced and merged into dominant spatial modes using a scheme based on frequency domain principal components. (2) Resulting modes are inverted for corresponding external source spatial structure, using a simplified conductivity model with radial variations overlain by a two-dimensional thin sheet. The source inversion is regularized using a physically based source covariance, generated through superposition of correlated tilted zonal (quasi-dipole) current loops, representing ionospheric source complexity smoothed by Earth rotation. Free parameters in the source covariance model are tuned by a leave-one-out cross-validation scheme. (3) The estimated data modes are inverted for 3-D Earth conductivity, assuming the source excitation estimated in step 2. Together, these developments constitute key components in a practical scheme for simultaneous inversion of the catalogue of historical and modern observatory data for external source spatial structure and 3-D Earth conductivity.

Journal of Geophysical Research

Plastic faulting in ice

Plastic faulting is a brittle‐like failure phenomenon exhibited by water ice and several other rock types under confinement. It is suspected to be the mechanism of deep earthquakes and extreme cases of shear localization in shallow rocks. Unlike ordinary Coulombic failure, plastic faulting is characterized by a pressure‐independent failure strength and fault plane oriented 45° to maximum principal stress. To research the question of how the instability initiates, we conducted over 50 constant‐displacement‐rate experiments on polycrystalline ice (phases Ih and II) near the brittle‐to‐ductile (B‐D) transition, at confining pressures P = 0–300 MPa, applied strain rates = 5 × 10 −5 – 7 × 10 −3 s −1 , temperatures T = 105–233 K, and mean grain sizes d = 0.25–1.18 mm. We find that (1) the width of the B‐D transition in variable space is vanishingly narrow, to the point of appearing as a crossover, (2) a plastic fault plane, once formed, is not a zone of subsequent weakness, (3) distributed ice I→II phase transformation in small amounts (<1 vol%) shows no causal relationship to subsequent failure, and (4) plastic faulting also occurs in ice II. We hypothesize that the elusive nucleating “trigger” parallels that of metals and ceramics undergoing severe plastic deformation, wherein transient local structural rearrangement occurs, in turn causing material strength to drop to a level sufficiently low, in a volume sufficiently large, that adiabatic instability is nucleated. Our results do not require and often are inconsistent with phase transformation. Plastic faulting may therefore be available to all solids undergoing severe deformation, and its appearance in so few is simply the result of insufficiently extreme conditions.

Journal of Geophysical Research- Solid Earth

W phase source inversion for moderate to large earthquakes (1990-2010)

Rapid characterization of the earthquake source and of its effects is a growing field of interest. Until recently, it still took several hours to determine the first-order attributes of a great earthquake (e.g. M w ≥ 7.5), even in a well-instrumented region. The main limiting factors were data saturation, the interference of different phases and the time duration and spatial extent of the source rupture. To accelerate centroid moment tensor (CMT) determinations, we have developed a source inversion algorithm based on modelling of the W phase, a very long period phase (100–1000 s) arriving at the same time as the P wave. The purpose of this work is to finely tune and validate the algorithm for large-to-moderate-sized earthquakes using three components of W phase ground motion at teleseismic distances. To that end, the point source parameters of all M w ≥ 6.5 earthquakes that occurred between 1990 and 2010 (815 events) are determined using Federation of Digital Seismograph Networks, Global Seismographic Network broad-band stations and STS1 global virtual networks of the Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology Data Management Center. For each event, a preliminary magnitude obtained from W phase amplitudes is used to estimate the initial moment rate function half duration and to define the corner frequencies of the passband filter that will be applied to the waveforms. Starting from these initial parameters, the seismic moment tensor is calculated using a preliminary location as a first approximation of the centroid. A full CMT inversion is then conducted for centroid timing and location determination. Comparisons with Harvard and Global CMT solutions highlight the robustness of W phase CMT solutions at teleseismic distances. The differences in M w rarely exceed 0.2 and the source mechanisms are very similar to one another. Difficulties arise when a target earthquake is shortly (e.g. within 10 hr) preceded by another large earthquake, which disturbs the waveforms of the target event. To deal with such difficult situations, we remove the perturbation caused by earlier disturbing events by subtracting the corresponding synthetics from the data. The CMT parameters for the disturbed event can then be retrieved using the residual seismograms. We also explore the feasibility of obtaining source parameters of smaller earthquakes in the range 6.0 ≤M w < 6.5. Results suggest that the W phase inversion can be implemented reliably for the majority of earthquakes of M w = 6 or larger.

Geophysical Journal International

Effective stress, friction and deep crustal faulting

Studies of crustal faulting and rock friction invariably assume the effective normal stress that determines fault shear resistance during frictional sliding is the applied normal stress minus the pore pressure. Here we propose an expression for the effective stress coefficient α f at temperatures and stresses near the brittle-ductile transition (BDT) that depends on the percentage of solid-solid contact area across the fault. α f varies with depth and is only near 1 when the yield strength of asperity contacts greatly exceeds the applied normal stress. For a vertical strike-slip quartz fault zone at hydrostatic pore pressure and assuming 1 mm and 1 km shear zone widths for friction and ductile shear, respectively, the BDT is at ~13 km. α f near 1 is restricted to depths where the shear zone is narrow. Below the BDT α f = 0 is due to a dramatically decreased strain rate. Under these circumstances friction cannot be reactivated below the BDT by increasing the pore pressure alone and requires localization. If pore pressure increases and the fault localizes back to 1 mm, then brittle behavior can occur to a depth of around 35 km. The interdependencies among effective stress, contact-scale strain rate, and pore pressure allow estimates of the conditions necessary for deep low-frequency seismicity seen on the San Andreas near Parkfield and in some subduction zones. Among the implications are that shear in the region separating shallow earthquakes and deep low-frequency seismicity is distributed and that the deeper zone involves both elevated pore fluid pressure and localization.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth

Mapping Curie temperature depth in the western United States with a fractal model for crustal magnetization

We have revisited the problem of mapping depth to the Curie temperature isotherm from magnetic anomalies in an attempt to provide a measure of crustal temperatures in the western United States. Such methods are based on the estimation of the depth to the bottom of magnetic sources, which is assumed to correspond to the temperature at which rocks lose their spontaneous magnetization. In this study, we test and apply a method based on the spectral analysis of magnetic anomalies. Early spectral analysis methods assumed that crustal magnetization is a completely uncorrelated function of position. Our method incorporates a more realistic representation where magnetization has a fractal distribution defined by three independent parameters: the depths to the top and bottom of magnetic sources and a fractal parameter related to the geology. The predictions of this model are compatible with radial power spectra obtained from aeromagnetic data in the western United States. Model parameters are mapped by estimating their value within a sliding window swept over the study area. The method works well on synthetic data sets when one of the three parameters is specified in advance. The application of this method to western United States magnetic compilations, assuming a constant fractal parameter, allowed us to detect robust long-wavelength variations in the depth to the bottom of magnetic sources. Depending on the geologic and geophysical context, these features may result from variations in depth to the Curie temperature isotherm, depth to the mantle, depth to the base of volcanic rocks, or geologic settings that affect the value of the fractal parameter. Depth to the bottom of magnetic sources shows several features correlated with prominent heat flow anomalies. It also shows some features absent in the map of heat flow. Independent geophysical and geologic data sets are examined to determine their origin, thereby providing new insights on the thermal and geologic crustal structure of the western United States.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth

Atmospheric regime of dust and salt through 75,000 years of Taylor Dome ice core: Refinement by measurement of major, minor, and trace metal suites

Measurement of absolute and relative amounts of dust and salt deposited in the polar ice record is central to several fields of study, including nutrient delivery, atmospheric deposition of trace elements, past wind strengths, dust provenance, and other aspects of climate and geochemical history. We present a method intended to give a more accurate picture than has been possible before of the total amounts and relative proportions of the dust and salt deposited by the atmosphere into polar ice. It also permits us to distinguish different compositional types of dust in the ice. The method is based on precise measurement of a suite of several metals whose proportions contrast strongly between dust and salt and vary substantially between dust types. We apply the method to a small suite of ice samples from the Taylor Dome core in coastal West Antarctica. In full glacial times, when total impurities were high and dust dominated over salt, wind strength in the West Antarctic region was apparently high, and extensive sea-ice cover prevented incorporation of salt into the atmospheric load. At the termination of the glacial period, increased salt in the dust-salt mixture indicates that sea ice diminished, but wind strength continued high, and unchanged dust composition indicates unchanged source areas. At about 10,000-11,000 y.B.P., sea-ice cover appears to have briefly returned to glacial conditions, but wind conditions remained in the milder postglacial condition. Soon after, sea ice retreated, and an abrupt change in dust composition indicates changed source materials or terranes. If extended by analysis of more samples from more sites, such information on salt and dust could provide firm constraints on past wind strengths, extent of sea-ice cover, deposition fluxes of salt and dust, and changing continental source areas of dust, for both polar regions of the Earth.

Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres

Constraining mean landslide occurrence rates for non-temporal landslide inventories using high-resolution elevation data

Constraining landslide occurrence rates can help to generate landslide hazard models that predict the spatial and temporal occurrence of landslides. However, most landslide inventories do not include any temporal data due to the difficulties of dating landslide deposits. Here we introduce a method for estimating the mean landslide occurrence rate of deep-seated rotational and translational slides derived solely from high-resolution (≤3 m) elevation data and globally available estimates of the diffusion coefficient for sediment flux. The method applies a linear diffusion model to the roughest landslide deposits until they reach a representative non-landslide roughness distribution. This estimates the time for a landslide deposit to be unrecognizable in high-resolution digital elevation data, which we term the mean lifetime of the landslide. Using the mean lifetime and number of landslides within an area of interest, we can estimate the mean occurrence rate of landslides over that domain. We validate this approach using a comprehensive temporal inventory of landslides in western Oregon created using age-roughness curves that are calibrated with high-resolution elevation data and radiocarbon data. We find good agreement between our diffusion method and the existing age-roughness-derived estimates, producing mean lifetimes of 4500 and 5200 years (4% difference), respectively. Hazard maps produced using the two methodologies generally agree, with the maximum differences in landslide probability reaching 0.1. Due to the relative abundance of high-resolution elevation data compared with age-dated landslides, our method could help constrain landslide occurrence rates in areas previously considered unfeasible.

Oregon

Source parameters of microearthquakes at Mount St Helens (USA)

We estimate the source parameters for a selection of microearthquakes that occurred at Mount St Helens in the period 1995–1998. Excluding the activity of 2004 September, this time period includes the most intense episode of earthquake activity since the last dome-building eruption in 1986 October. 200 seismograms were processed to obtain seismic moments, source radii, stress drops and average fault slip. The source parameters were determined from the spectral analysis of P waves, after correction for attenuation and site effects. In particular, P -wave quality ( Q p ) and site ( S ) factors have been previously calculated in the frequency ranges 2–7 Hz and 18–30 Hz. Because it was impossible to perform corrections for Q p and S over the whole spectrum we applied a new approach, based on the notion of ‘ holed spectrum ’, to estimate spectral parameters. The term ‘ holed spectrum ’ indicates a spectrum lacking corrected spectral amplitude values at certain frequencies. We carried out a statistical study to verify that dealing with the ‘ holed spectrum ’ does not lead to significant differences in the estimates of spectral parameters. We also investigated the dependence of spectral parameters (low-frequency level, corner frequency and high-frequency decay) on the bandwidth of spectral hole, and defined the threshold values for three different spectral models. Displacement ‘ holed spectra ’, corrected by attenuation and site response, are then used to determine spectral parameters in order to calculate seismic source parameters. Seismic moments range from 10 17 to 10 19 dyne-cm, source dimensions from 100 to 350 m, and average fault slip from 0.003 to 0.1 cm. Self-similarity seems to break down in that stress drops are very low (0.1–1 bars). We postulate that seismicity is associated with a brittle shear failure mechanism occurring in a highly heterogeneous material under a relatively low stress regime.

Washington

Using stereo satellite imagery to account for ablation, entrainment, and compaction in volume calculations for rock avalanches on Glaciers: Application to the 2016 Lamplugh Rock Avalanche in Glacier Bay National Park, Alaska

The use of preevent and postevent digital elevation models (DEMs) to estimate the volume of rock avalanches on glaciers is complicated by ablation of ice before and after the rock avalanche, scour of material during rock avalanche emplacement, and postevent ablation and compaction of the rock avalanche deposit. We present a model to account for these processes in volume estimates of rock avalanches on glaciers. We applied our model by calculating the volume of the 28 June 2016 Lamplugh rock avalanche in Glacier Bay National Park, Alaska. We derived preevent and postevent 2‐m resolution DEMs from WorldView satellite stereo imagery. Using data from DEM differencing, we reconstructed the rock avalanche and adjacent surfaces at the time of occurrence by accounting for elevation changes due to ablation and scour of the ice surface, and postevent deposit changes. We accounted for uncertainties in our DEMs through precise coregistration and an assessment of relative elevation accuracy in bedrock control areas. The rock avalanche initially displaced 51.7 ± 1.5 Mm3 of intact rock and then scoured and entrained 13.2 ± 2.2 Mm3 of snow and ice during emplacement. We calculated the total deposit volume to be 69.9 ± 7.9 Mm3. Volume estimates that did not account for topographic changes due to ablation, scour, and compaction underestimated the deposit volume by 31.0–46.8 Mm3. Our model provides an improved framework for estimating uncertainties affecting rock avalanche volume measurements in glacial environments. These improvements can contribute to advances in the understanding of rock avalanche hazards and dynamics.

Alaska

A numerical simulation of magma motion, crustal deformation, and seismic radiation associated with volcanic eruptions

The finite difference method is used to calculate the magma dynamics, seismic radiation, and crustal deformation associated with a volcanic eruption. The model geometry consists of a cylindrical reservoir and narrow cylindrical conduit embedded in a homogeneous crust. We consider two models of eruption. In the first model, a lid caps the vent and the magma is overpressurized prior to the eruption. The eruption is triggered by the instantaneous removal of the lid, at which point the exit pressure becomes equal to the atmospheric pressure. In the second model, a plug at the reservoir outlet allows pressurization of only the magmatic fluid in the reservoir before the eruption. Magma transfer between the reservoir and conduit is triggered by the instantaneous removal of the plug, and the eruption occurs when the pressure at the conduit orifice exceeds the material strength of the lid capping the vent. In both models, magma dynamics are expressed by the equations of mass and momentum conservation in a compressible fluid, in which fluid expansion associated with depressurization is accounted for by a constitutive law relating pressure and density. Crustal motions are calculated from the equations of elastodynamics. The fluid and solid are dynamically coupled by applying the continuity of wall velocities and normal stresses across the conduit and reservoir boundaries. Free slip is allowed at the fluid-solid boundary. Both models predict the gradual depletion of the magma reservoir, which causes crustal deformation observed as a long-duration dilatational signal. Superimposed on this very-long-period (VLP) signal generated by mass transport are long-period (LP) oscillations of the magma reservoir and conduit excited by the acoustic resonance of the reservoir-conduit system during the eruption. The volume of the reservoir, vent size, and magma properties control the duration of VLP waves and dominant periods of LP oscillations. The second model predicts that when the magmatic fluid reaches the vent, a high-pressure pulse occurs at this location in accordance with the basic theory of compressible fluid dynamics. This abrupt pressure increase just beneath the vent is consistent with observed seismograms in which pulse-like Rayleigh waves excited by a shallow source are dominant. The strength of the lid plays an important role in the character of the seismograms and in defining the type of eruption observed.

Geophysical Journal International

Electrical signatures of ethanol-liquid mixtures: implications for monitoring biofuels migration in the subsurface

Ethanol (EtOH), an emerging contaminant with potential direct and indirect environmental effects, poses threats to water supplies when spilled in large volumes. A series of experiments was directed at understanding the electrical geophysical signatures arising from groundwater contamination by ethanol. Conductivity measurements were performed at the laboratory scale on EtOH–water mixtures (0 to 0.97 v/v EtOH) and EtOH–salt solution mixtures (0 to 0.99 v/v EtOH) with and without a sand matrix using a conductivity probe and a four-electrode electrical measurement over the low frequency range (1–1000 Hz). A Lichtenecker–Rother (L–R) type mixing model was used to simulate electrical conductivity as a function of EtOH concentration in the mixture. For all three experimental treatments increasing EtOH concentration resulted in a decrease in measured conductivity magnitude (|σ|). The applied L–R model fitted the experimental data at concentration ≤ 0.4 v/v EtOH, presumably due to predominant and symmetric intermolecular (EtOH–water) interaction in the mixture. The deviation of the experimental |σ| data from the model prediction at higher EtOH concentrations may be associated with hydrophobic effects of EtOH–EtOH interactions in the mixture. The |σ| data presumably reflected changes in relative strength of the three types of interactions (water–water, EtOH–water, and EtOH–EtOH) occurring simultaneously in EtOH–water mixtures as the ratio of EtOH to water changed. No evidence of measurable polarization effects at the EtOH–water and EtOH–water–mineral interfaces over the investigated frequency range was found. Our results indicate the potential for using electrical measurements to characterize and monitor EtOH spills in the subsurface.

Journal of Contaminant Hydrology

Hindcasting of decadal‐timescale estuarine bathymetric change with a tidal‐timescale model

Hindcasting decadal-timescale bathymetric change in estuaries is prone to error due to limited data for initial conditions, boundary forcing, and calibration; computational limitations further hinder efforts. We developed and calibrated a tidal-timescale model to bathymetric change in Suisun Bay, California, over the 1867–1887 period. A general, multiple-timescale calibration ensured robustness over all timescales; two input reduction methods, the morphological hydrograph and the morphological acceleration factor, were applied at the decadal timescale. The model was calibrated to net bathymetric change in the entire basin; average error for bathymetric change over individual depth ranges was 37%. On a model cell-by-cell basis, performance for spatial amplitude correlation was poor over the majority of the domain, though spatial phase correlation was better, with 61% of the domain correctly indicated as erosional or depositional. Poor agreement was likely caused by the specification of initial bed composition, which was unknown during the 1867–1887 period. Cross-sectional bathymetric change between channels and flats, driven primarily by wind wave resuspension, was modeled with higher skill than longitudinal change, which is driven in part by gravitational circulation. The accelerated response of depth may have prevented gravitational circulation from being represented properly. As performance criteria became more stringent in a spatial sense, the error of the model increased. While these methods are useful for estimating basin-scale sedimentation changes, they may not be suitable for predicting specific locations of erosion or deposition. They do, however, provide a foundation for realistic estuarine geomorphic modeling applications.

California

Identification of seismo-volcanic regimes at Whakaari/White Island (New Zealand) via systematic tuning of an unsupervised classifier

We present an algorithm based on Self-Organizing Maps (SOM) and k-means clustering to recognize patterns in a continuous 12.5-year tremor time series recorded at Whakaari/White Island volcano, New Zealand (hereafter referred to as Whakaari). The approach is extendable to a variety of volcanic settings through systematic tuning of the classifier. Hyperparameters are evaluated by statistical means, yielding a combination of “ideal” SOM parameters for the given data set. Extending from this, we applied a Kernel Density Estimation approach to automatically detect changes within the observed seismicity. We categorize the Whakaari seismic time series into regimes representing distinct volcano-seismic states during recent unrest episodes at Whakaari (2012/2013, 2016, and 2019). There is a clear separation in classification results between background regimes and those representing elevated levels of unrest. Onset of unrest is detected by the classifier 6 weeks before the August 2012 eruption, and ca. 3.5 months before the December 2019 eruption, respectively. Regime changes are corroborated by changes in commonly monitored tremor proxies as well as with reported volcanic activity. The regimes are hypothesized to represent diverse mechanisms including: system pressurization and depressurization, degassing, and elevated surface activity. Labeling these regimes improves visualization of the 2012/2013 and 2019 unrest and eruptive episodes. The pre-eruptive 2016 unrest showed a contrasting shape and nature of seismic regimes, suggesting differing onset and driving processes. The 2016 episode is proposed to result from rapid destabilization of the shallow hydrothermal system, while rising magmatic gases from new injections of magma better explain the 2012/2013 and 2019 episodes.

Whakaari, White Island

Importance of a stochastic distribution of floods and erosion thresholds in the bedrock river incision problem

Fluvial erosion of bedrock occurs during occasional flood events when boundary shear stress exceeds a critical threshold to initiate incision. Therefore efforts to model the evolution of topography over long timescales should include an erosion threshold and should be driven by a stochastic distribution of erosive events. However, most bedrock incision models ignore the threshold as a second‐order detail. In addition, climate is poorly represented in most landscape evolution models, so the quantitative relationship between erosion rate and measurable climatic variables has been elusive. Here we show that the presence of an erosion threshold, when combined with a well‐constrained, probabilistic model of storm and flood occurrence, has first‐order implications for the dynamics of river incision in tectonically active areas. First, we make a direct calculation of the critical shear stress required to pluck bedrock blocks for a field site in New York. Second, we apply a recently proposed stochastic, threshold, bedrock incision model to a series of streams in California, with known tectonic and climatic forcing. Previous work in the area has identified a weak relationship between channel gradient or relief and rock uplift rate that is not easily explained by simpler detachment‐limited models. The results with the stochastic threshold model show that even low erosion thresholds, which are exceeded in steep channels during high‐frequency flood events, fundamentally affect the predicted relationship between gradient and uplift rate in steady state rivers, in a manner consistent with the observed topography. This correspondence between theory and data is, however, nonunique; models in which a thin alluvial cover may act to inhibit channel incision in the low uplift rate zone also provide plausible explanations for the observed topography. Third, we explore the broader implications of the stochastic threshold model to the development of fluvial topography in active tectonic settings. We suggest that continued field applications of geomorphic models, including physically meaningful thresholds and stochastic climate distributions, are required to advance our knowledge of interactions among surficial, climatic, and crustal processes.

California