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An engineering economic analysis of a program for artificial groundwater recharge

This study describes and demonstrates two alternate methods for evaluating the relative costs and benefits of artificial groundwater recharge using percolation ponds. The first analysis considers the benefits to be the reduction of pumping lifts and land subsidence; the second considers benefits as the alternative costs of a comparable surface delivery system. Example computations are carried out for an existing artificial recharge program in Santa Clara Valley in California. A computer groundwater model is used to estimate both the average long term and the drought period effects of artificial recharge in the study area. For the example problem, the benefits of reduced average annual pumping lifts and reduced incremental subsidence are greater than the total costs of continuing the existing artificial recharge program. Benefits for reduced subsidence are strongly dependent on initial aquifer conditions. The second analysis compares the costs of continuing the artificial recharge program with the costs of a surface system which would achieve the same hydraulic effects. Results indicate that the costs of artificial recharge are considerably smaller than the alternative costs of an equivalent surface system. In evaluating a particular program, consideration should also be given to uncertainties in future supplies and demands for water as well as to the probability of extreme events such as droughts

California

Periodic autoregressive-moving average (PARMA) modeling with applications to water resources

Results involving correlation properties and parameter estimation for autoregressive-moving average models with periodic parameters are presented. A multivariate representation of the PARMA model is used to derive parameter space restrictions and difference equations for the periodic autocorrelations. Close approximation to the likelihood function for Gaussian PARMA processes results in efficient maximum-likelihood estimation procedures. Terms in the Fourier expansion of the parameters are sequentially included, and a selection criterion is given for determining the optimal number of harmonics to be included. Application of the techniques is demonstrated through analysis of a monthly streamflow time series.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio

Detectability of step trends in the rate of atmospheric deposition of sulfate

A method is presented to assist policy makers in determining the combination of number of sampling stations and number of years of sampling necessary to state with a given probability that a step reduction in atmospheric deposition rates of a given magnitude has occurred at a pre-specified time. This pre-specified time would typically be the time at which a sulfate emission control program took effect, and the given magnitude of reduction is some percentage change in deposition rate one might expect to occur as a result of the emission control. In order to determine this probability of detection, a stochastic model of sulfate deposition rates is developed, based on New York State bulk collection network data. The model considers the effect of variation in precipitation, seasonal variations, serial correlation, and site-to-site (cross) correlation. A nonparametric statistical test which is well suited to detection of step changes in such multi-site data sets is developed. It is related to the Mann-Whitney Rank-Sum test. The test is used in Monte Carlo simulations along with the stochastic model to derive statistical power functions. These power functions describe the probability of detecting (α=0.05) a step trend in deposition rate as a function of the size of the step-trend, record length before and after the step-trend, and the number of stations sampled. The results show that, for an area the size of New York State, very little power is gained by increasing the number of stations beyond about eight. The results allow policy makers to determine the tradeoff between the cost of monitoring and time required to detect a step-trend of a given magnitude with a given probability.

New York

Variability in measured bedload-transport rates

Variability in bedload-transport rates during constant water discharge is an inherent part of the bedload-transport process. Although this variability has been measured extensively in the laboratory, similar information generally is not available from field measurements. During a four-day period of nearly constant water discharge, four sets of consecutively collected bedload samples, ranging from 43 to 120 samples, were obtained at the same cross channel location using a standard 65-pound Helley-Smith bedload sampler. When the measured transport rates are converted to dimensionless rates and plotted as cumulative frequency distributions, they show good agreement with a theoretical probability distribution function of rates derived for the case of ripples on dunes. The distributions show that during constant water discharge individual measured rates at a fixed point vary from near zero to four times the mean rate, and 60 percent of the sampled rates will be less than the mean. Because of the large variation in transport rates that occurs at every location in the cross section, many observations are required to establish an accurate estimate of the mean rate at any given location.

Tennessee

Quantification of instream flow needs of a wild and scenic river for water rights litigation

The lower 4 miles of the Red River, a tributary of the Rio Grande in northern New Mexico, was designated as one of the “instant” components of the National Wild and Scenic River System in 1968. The Bureau of Land Management (BLM), as the managing agency of the wild and scenic river, was a participant in a general water rights adjudication of the Red River stream system. The BLM sought a federal reserved water right and asserted a claim to the instream flows necessary to protect and maintain the values of the river. Instream flows are not recognized under New Mexico water law. Instream flow requirements were determined by several methods to quantify the claims made by the United States for a federal reserved water right under the Wild and Scenic Rivers Act. The scenic (aesthetic), recreational, and fish and wildlife values are the purposes for which instream flow requirements were claimed. Since water quality is related to these values, instream flows for waste transport and protection of water quality were also included in the claim. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service's Instream Flow Incremental Methodology was used to quantify the relationship between various flow regimes and fish habitat. Experience in this litigation indicates the importance of using state-of-the-art methodologies in quantifying instream flow claims. The incremental methodology held up well under technical and legal scrutiny and is an example of the latest methodology that was applied successfully in an adjudication. On February 23, 1984, the parties involved in the adjudication entered a precedential stipulation recognizing a federal reserved right to instream flows for the Red River component of the National Wild and Scenic River System.

New Mexico

Meeting the challenge of policy-relevant science: lessons from a water resource project

Water resource scientists face complex tasks in evaluating aspects of water projects, but relatively few assessment procedures have been applied and accepted as standard applications. Decision-makers often rely on environmental assessments to evaluate the value and operation of projects. There is often confusion about scientists' role in policy decisions. The scientist can affect policy-making as an expert withess, an advocate or a surrogate. By understanding the policy process, scientists can make their work more “policy relevant.” Using the Terror Lake hydro project in Alaska as a guide, three lessons are discussed: (1) not all problems are able to be solved with technology; (2) policy-relevant technology is rarely imposed on a problem; and (3) the scientist need not just react to the policy process, but can have an impact on how that process unfolds.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio

Mississippi embayment aquifer system in Mississippi: Geohydrologic data compilation for flow model simulation

As part of the Gulf Coast Regional Aquifer System Analysis (GC RASA) study, data from 184 geophysical well logs were used to define the geohydrologic framework of the Mississippi embayment aquifer system in Mississippi for flow model simulation. Five major aquifers of Eocene and Paleocene age were defined within this aquifer system in Mississippi. A computer data storage system was established to assimilate the information obtained from the geophysical logs. Computer programs were developed to manipulate the data to construct geologic sections and structure maps. Data from the storage system will be input to a five-layer, three-dimensional, finite-difference digital computer model that is used to simulate the flow dynamics in the five major aquifers of the Mississippi embayment aquifer system.

Mississippi

Wetland ecosystems studies from a hydrologic perspective

Selected studies from the literature were reviewed to determine the extent of knowledge about the relationship between hydrology and wetland ecosystem studies. Wetland studies of chemical input-output relationships have been the most dependent on hydrologic data of all wetland investigations; yet, very few of these studies have attempted to measure all components of a wetland's water balance. Usually, unmeasured components were calculated as the difference between measured inputs and outputs. Ground water frequently was overlooked. Chemical input-output investigations primarily were concerned with determining the amount of input retained in the wetlands. Few studies also included direct measurement of biogeochemical processes within wetlands of elements that were part of simultaneous input-output investigations. The importance of uncertainties in chemical budgets that are due to uncertainties in hydrologic budgets has been addressed in very few wetland investigations. Although many studies have emphasized the importance of hydrology to wetland ecosystem research, few studies have documented this, so that hydrology remains one of the least understood components of wetland ecosystems.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio

Identification of solute loading sources to a surface stream

A study was performed to identify sources of solute loading to the Dirty Devil River and its major tributaries, in southeastern Utah. A primary goal was to determine the contribution of gypsum dissolution to total dissolved solids concentration, and its potential increase in the future if salinity control measures are instituted. Synoptic field data were collected during the low flow period in October 1983. Data were analyzed using the geochemistry models WATEQF and BALANCE to postulate mineral reactions leading to solute loading. Three known sources of solute loading, involving two different geochemical mechanisms, were clearly discernable. Two additional areas of possible gypsum dissolution were located.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio

Predicting baseflow alkalinity as an index to episodic stream acidification and fish presence

Regression models to predict baseflow alkalinity from basin hydrogeology were developed and verified for headwater streams on the Laurel Hill anticline in southwestern Pennsylvania. Predicted baseflow alkalinities were then used to estimate sensitivity to acidification and presence of trout ( Salvelinus fontinalis ) populations for 61 headwater streams. Sensitivity classifications were verified by surveying trout populations. Geologic variables relating to the carbonate rock burial depth, extent of carbonate rock recharge areas, and length of stream channel flowing through effluent carbonate rock outcrops were much more useful in predicting baseflow alkalinity than areal extent of carbonate rocks. Baseflow alkalinity was not well related to status of trout populations on these anticlinal basins, especially on noneffluent basins where bedrock dip exceeded surface slope.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio

Sedimentation in Lake Onalaska, navigation pool 7, Upper Mississippi River, since impoundment

Sediment accumulation was evaluated in Lake Onalaska, a 2800-ha backwater impoundment on the Upper Mississippi River. Computer programs were used to process bathometric charts and generate an extensive data set on water depth for the lake. Comparison of 1983 survey data with pre-impoundment (before 1937) data showed that Lake Onalaska had lost less than 10 percent of its original mean depth in the 46 years since impoundment. Previous estimates of sedimentation rates based on Cesium-137 sediment core analysis appear to have been too high.

Wisconsin

Use of topological information in hydrograph estimation

Discharge hydrographs computed from the theory of linear flow through topologically random channel networks are compared to actual discharge hydrographs for basins in semiarid regions of central Wyoming. The basins drained by the channel networks range in size from 0.69 to 10.8 square miles. Topological information consisting of stream-network magnitude and link -length distribution parameters are used in calibrating celerity values that ensure that the peak discharge and excess rainfall volume of the resulting computed hydrographs match the peak discharge and excess-rainfall volume of the actual hydrographs. Results indicate that, for a given peak discharge and excess-rainfall volume in a basin, the sensitivity of the calibrated celerity values to excess-rainfall duration is small if the ratio of excess-rainfall volume to peak discharge is at least 1.75 times the excess-rainfall duration.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio

Velocity control as a tool for optimal plume containment in the Equus Beds aquifer, Kansas

A ground-water-management model was developed to investigate the best management options for the containment of an oil-field-brine plume in the Equus Beds aquifer in south-central Kansas. The main purpose of the management model was to find the optimal locations and minimum rates of pumpage of a set of plume-interception wells, to successfully reverse the velocity vectors at observation wells located along the plume front, and also to satisfy freshwater demands from supply wells. The effects of the calculated minimum withdrawals from the interception wells on the migration of contaminants throughout the ground-water system were evaluated utilizing a solute-transport model. This latter analysis was carried out to ensure the containment of the plume. Whereas application of the management model to the study area achieves the management objectives, the implementation of the results is believed to be impractical and expensive. This is because a considerable amount of water must be pumped out to reverse the velocity vectors in the vicinity of the plume. In general, the proposed technique of pollutant containment may be effective when applied to aquifers having low hydraulic gradients and/or to aquifers with hazardous plumes whose containment is not subject to economic constraints.

Kansas

Sensitivity of high-elevation streams in the Southern Blue Ridge Province to acidic deposition

The Southern Blue Ridge Province, which encompasses parts of northern Georgia, eastern Tennessee, and western North Carolina, has been predicted to be sensitive to impacts from acidic deposition, owing to the chemical composition of the bedrock geology and soils. This study confirms the predicted potential sensitivity, quantifies the level of total alkalinity and describes the chemical characteristics of 30 headwater streams of this area. Water chemistry was measured five times between April 1983 and June 1984 at first and third order reaches of each stream during baseflow conditions. Sensitivity based on total alkalinity and the Calcite Saturation Index indicates that the headwater streams of the Province are vulnerable to acidification. Total alkalinity and p11 were generally higher in third order reaches (mean, 72 ?eq/? and 6.7) than in first order reaches (64 ?eq/? and 6.4). Ionic concentrations were low, averaging 310 and 340 ?eq/? in first and third order reaches, respectively. A single sampling appears adequate for evaluating sensitivity based on total alkalinity, but large temporal variability requires multiple sampling for the detection of changes in pH and alkalinity over time. Monitoring of stream water should continue in order to detect any subtle effects of acidic deposition on these unique resource systems.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio

Calculation of nonlinear confidence and prediction intervals for ground-water flow models

A method is derived to efficiently compute nonlinear confidence and prediction intervals on any function of parameters derived as output from a mathematical model of a physical system. The method is applied to the problem of obtaining confidence and prediction intervals for manually-calibrated ground-water flow models. To obtain confidence and prediction intervals resulting from uncertainties in parameters, the calibrated model and information on extreme ranges and ordering of the model parameters within one or more independent groups are required. If random errors in the dependent variable are present in addition to uncertainties in parameters, then calculation of prediction intervals also requires information on the extreme range of error expected. A simple Monte Carlo method is used to compute the quantiles necessary to establish probability levels for the confidence and prediction intervals. Application of the method to a hypothetical example showed that inclusion of random errors in the dependent variable in addition to uncertainties in parameters can considerably widen the prediction intervals.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio

Examples of landfill-generated plumes in low-relief areas, southeast Florida

Areas of low topographic relief have low water-table gradients and make the direction of movement of contaminants from land fills in the ground water difficult to predict from regional gradients alone. The landfill, nearby free-flowing ditches or canals, variations in hydraulic conductivity, and the influence of nearby pumping wells can all affect the direction of flow. In low-gradient areas the concepts of “upgradient” and “downgradient” are less useful in planning the location of monitoring wells than in areas of higher relief. Low-relief areas also may be affected by the discharge of mineralized water from deeper aquifers, naturally or through irrigation, which can mask geochemical surveys intended to detect landfill leachate. Examples of effects of low topographic relief are noted in southeast Florida where water-table gradients are 7×10 − - 4 to 5×10 − - 4 feet per foot. Water-table mounding beneath the landfill and the drainage effects of nearby ditches and well have created multiple leachate plumes in Stuart where one plume migrated in a direction opposite to the apparent regional gradient. In Coral Springs analysis suggests a bifurcating plume migrating along two narrow zones. In Fort Pierce it was difficult to detect leachate because of mineralized irrigation water and fertilizer runoff from an adjacent citrus grove.

Florida

Contributions of rainfall to constituent loads in storm runoff from urban catchments

Rainfall is a significant source of some constituents, particularly nitrogen species, in storm runoff from urban catchments. Median contributions of rainfall to storm runoff loads of 12 constituents from 31 urban catchments, representing eight geographic locations within the United States, ranged from 2 percent for suspended solids to 74 percent for total nitrite plus nitrate nitrogen. The median contribution of total nitrogen in rainfall to runoff loads was 41 percent. Median contributions of total-recoverable lead in rainfall to runoff loads varied by as much as an order of magnitude between catchments in the same geographic location. This indicates that average estimates of rainfall contributions to constituent loading in storm runoff may not be suitable in studies requiring accurate constituent mass-balance computations.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio