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USGS2024

Developing, testing, and communicating earthquake forecasts: Current practices and future directions

While deterministically predicting the time and location of earthquakes remains impossible, earthquake forecasting models can provide estimates of the probabilities of earthquakes occurring within some region over time. To enable informed decision-making of civil protection, governmental agencies, or the public, Operational Earthquake Forecasting (OEF) systems aim to provide authoritative earthquake forecasts based on current earthquake activity in near-real time. Establishing OEF systems involves several nontrivial choices. This review captures the current state of OEF worldwide and analyzes expert recommendations on the development, testing, and communication of earthquake forecasts. An introductory summary of OEF-related research is followed by a description of OEF systems in Italy, New Zealand, and the United States. Combined, these two parts provide an informative and transparent snapshot of today's OEF landscape. In Section 4, we analyze the results of an expert elicitation that was conducted to seek guidance for the establishment of OEF systems. The elicitation identifies consensus and dissent on OEF issues among a non-representative group of 20 international earthquake forecasting experts. While the experts agree that communication products should be developed in collaboration with the forecast user groups, they disagree on whether forecasting models and testing methods should be user-dependent. No recommendations of strict model requirements could be elicited, but benchmark comparisons, prospective testing, reproducibility, and transparency are encouraged. Section 5 gives an outlook on the future of OEF. Besides covering recent research on earthquake forecasting model development and testing, upcoming OEF initiatives are described in the context of the expert elicitation findings.

Reviews of Geophysics↗

USGS2012

Electrical structure of Newberry Volcano, Oregon

From the interpretation of magnetotelluric, transient electromagnetic, and Schlumberger resistivity soundings, the electrical structure of Newberry Volcano in central Oregon is found to consist of four units. From the surface downward, the geoelectrical units are (1) very resistive, young, unaltered volcanic rock, (2) a conductive layer of older volcanic material composed of altered tuffs, (3) a thick resistive layer thought to be in part intrusive rocks, and (4) a lower-crustal conductor. This model is similar to the regional geoelectrical structure found throughout the Cascade Range. Inside the caldera, the conductive second layer corresponds to the steep temperature gradient and alteration minerals observed in the USGS Newberry 2 test hole. Drill hole information on the south and north flanks of the volcano (test holes GEO N-1 and GEO N-3, respectively) indicates that outside the caldera the conductor is due to alteration minerals (primarily smectite) and not high-temperature pore fluids. On the flanks of Newberry the conductor is generally deeper than inside the caldera, and it deepens with distance from the summit. A notable exception to this pattern is seen just west of the caldera rim, where the conductive zone is shallower than at other flank locations. The volcano sits atop a rise in the resistive layer, interpreted to be due to intrusive rocks. The intrusive material has served as a heat source to produce enhanced hydrothermal alteration and, perhaps in the case of the west-flank anomaly, elevated fluid temperatures. While no public drill hole information is available to confirm this hypothesis, the west-flank anomaly appears to be a good geothermal target. In addition to the possibility that a region on the west side of the volcano could be favorable for prospecting, part of the resistive structure under the center of the volcano could be due to a vapor-dominated environment with temperatures above 300°C. In other parts of the Cascades, pervasive alteration has produced mixed layer clays and zeolites, resulting in low-resistivity anomalies. Low resistivities cannot be assumed to indicate high-temperature pore fluids. The use of electrical methods that measure resistivity as a function of excitation frequency, such as spectral induced polarization, may provide a way of obtaining information about the type and extent of alteration.

Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth↗

USGS1976

Geologic appraisal of the petroleum potential of offshore southern California; the borderland compared to onshore coastal basins

Offshore southern California is part of a much larger Pacific continental margin, and the two areas have a similar geologic history at least as far back as middle Tertiary time. Assessment of the petroleum potential of the offshore Southern California borderland is accomplished by examining the adjacent highly explored productive coastal basins in the tectonically unstable area west of the San Andreas fault. Known oil and gas accumulations in this region can be characterized as follows: 88 percent comes from the Los Angeles and Ventura basins; 87 percent has been found in late Miocene and younger strata and only 0.2 percent has been found in Eocene strata; 80 percent has been found in thick deposits of deep-water turbidite reservoirs; and 5 percent has been found in fractured Miocene siliceous shale reservoirs. The percentage of siliceous shale reservoirs will increase as a result of recent discoveries in this rock type in the Santa Barbara Channel. Of the 212 known fields only 5 are giants (greater than 500 million barrels), and these fields account for 52 percent of all past production from the region. Most fields are faulted anticlines, and the largest fields have the highest oil recoveries per acre. Geologic knowledge of the offshore is limited by the availability of data. Data have been obtained from geophysical surveys, analyses of bedrock samples from the sea floor, and extrapolations of data from the mainland and offshore islands. Several factors have a negative effect on the assessment of the petroleum potential of the southern California borderland. They are: 1. The Neogene section is relatively thin, and the Paleogene section is thin and has a limited distribution. 2. Over large areas, Miocene sediments apparently rest directly on basement. 3. Along much of the Santa Rosa-Cortes Ridge, sediments are uplifted and truncated, exposing Paleogene rocks. 4. Organic content in Paleogene sediments is believed too low to generate large amounts of petroleum. 5. Source rocks are immature, even in sediments as old as Eocene. 6. Burial and thermal history are insufficient for the generaton of hydrocarbons over much of the borderland area. 7. Documented oil and gas seeps are unknown seaward of the Channel Islands. 8. Limited exploratory drilling nearshore, the best prospective area, has not been favorable. 9. Adequate or thick reservoirs of deep-water turbidire origin are not evident. These negative factors are partly offset by the following positive factors: 1. Miocene sediments are excellent potential source rocks. 2. Asphaltic oil in rocks of Monterey-type lithology may be generated at lower than normal temperatures. 3. Shallow-water sands of reservoir quality possibly are present in the uppermost Paleogene and lowermost Neogene section. 4. Potential structural traps may be analogous to major structural producing trends onshore. 5. Fractured shale reservoirs may be present along flanks of major banks and ridges. 6. Buried and unsampled Paleogene and Late Cretaceous sediments may be better source rocks than those sampled and measured. The southern California borderland, although a part of a locally rich petroliferous region, has no known basins with geologic histories or characteristics similar to the Los Angeles and Ventura basins. Some offshore basins are similar to less endowed basins in terms of petroleum potential such as the Santa Maria and Salinas basins. Areas with the best petroleum potential may be in deep water (greater than 500 m). Some of the past high estimates of the petroleum potential may have been overstated; the existing geologic data tend to substantiate low estimates of 0.6 to 5.8 billion barrels of oil and 0.6 to 5.8 trillion ft3 of gas for the southern California borderland at the 5 and 95 percent probability level.

Circular↗

USGS1980

Summaries of data on and lists of references to metallic and selected nonmetallic mineral deposits in the Nabesna Quadrangle, Alaska

These summaries of data on metallic and selected nonmetallic mineral occurrences and lists of selected references to them in Geological Survey, U.S. Bureau of Mines, and State of Alaska Division of Geological and Geophysical Surveys (and predecessor State and Territorial agencies) reports and maps and in one Geological Survey of Canada report are designed to aid in library research on the mineral resources of the Nabesna quadrangle, Alaska. The references listed are selected in the sense that mainly statistical reports such as the annual Minerals Yearbook of the U.S. Bureau of Mines and many annual and biennial reports of the Alaska Division of Geological and Geophysical Surveys and its predecessor agencies are not included. The cut-off date for reports and maps cited in this report is December 31, 1979. Data on claims about which little more than their locations is known (for example, most of the localities on p. 53 in MacKevett and Holloway, 1977 (OF 77169A)) are not included. These omissions should not be interpreted as a judgement that the claims are not on valid mineral occurrences, but only that there are insufficient data to describe any mineral deposit that might be present. Geochemical anomalies determined by analyses of rock and stream-sediment samples in which no metallic mineral was identified are also omitted. This report is divided into three parts: a section made up of summaries of data and reference lists arranged alphabetically by occurrence name; a second section that lists synonyms for names in the first section, the names of owners and operators of mines and prospects, and claim names; and a final section that lists alphabetically by author all references mentioned in the first section and in these introductory paragraphs.

Alaska↗

USGS2012

Slip partitioning of the Calaveras Fault, California, and prospects for future earthquakes

Examination of main shock and microearthquake data from the Calaveras Fault during the last 20 years reveals that main shock hypocenters occur at depths of 8-9 km near the base of the zone of microearthquakes. Microseismicity extends between depths of 4 and 10 km and defines zones of concentrated microseismicity and aseismic zones. Estimates of the fault regions which slipped during the Coyote Lake and Morgan Hill earthquakes as derived from seismic radiation coincide with zones which are otherwise aseismic. We propose that these persistent aseismic zones represent stuck patches which slip only during moderate earthquakes. From the pattern of microearthquake locations we recognize six aseismic zones where we expect future main shocks will rupture the Calaveras Fault. -from Authors

Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth↗

USGS2012

Sandstone copper assessment of the Chu-Sarysu Basin, Central Kazakhstan: Chapter E in Global mineral resource assessment

Mineral resource assessments represent a synthesis of available information to estimate the location, quality, and quantity of undiscovered mineral resources in the upper part of the Earth’s crust. This report presents a probabilistic mineral resource assessment of undiscovered sandstone copper deposits within the late Paleozoic Chu-Sarysu Basin in central Kazakhstan by the U.S. Geological Survey as a contribution to a global assessment of mineral resources. The purposes of this study are to: (1) provide a database of known sandstone copper deposits and significant prospects in this area, (2) delineate permissive areas (tracts) for undiscovered sandstone copper deposits within 2 km of the surface at a scale of 1:1,000,000, (3) estimate numbers of undiscovered deposits within these permissive tracts at several levels of confidence, and (4) provide probabilistic estimates of amounts of copper (Cu), silver (Ag), and mineralized rock that could be contained in undiscovered deposits within each tract. The assessment uses the three-part form of mineral resource assessment based on mineral deposit models (Singer, 1993; Singer and Menzie, 2010). Delineation of permissive tracts for resources is based on the distribution of a Carboniferous oxidized nonmarine clastic (red bed) stratigraphic sequence that lies between overlying Permian and underlying Devonian evaporite-bearing sequences. Subsurface information on the extent and depth of this red bed sequence and structural features that divide the basin into sub-basins was used to define four permissive tracts. Structure contour maps, mineral occurrence databases, drill hole lithologic logs, geophysical maps, soil geochemical maps, locations of producing gas fields, and evidence for former gas accumulations were considered in conjunction with descriptive deposit models and grade and tonnage models to guide the assessment team’s estimates of undiscovered deposits in each tract. The four permissive tracts are structural sub-basins of the Chu-Sarysu Basin and range in size from 750 to 65,000 km². Probabilistic estimates of numbers of undiscovered sandstone copper deposits were made for the four tracts by a group of experts. Using these probabilistic estimates, Monte Carlo simulation was used to estimate the amount of metal contained within each tract. The results of the simulation serve as the basis for estimates of the metal endowment. The team estimates that 26 undiscovered deposits occur within the Chu-Sarysu Basin, and that these deposits contain an arithmetic mean of at least 21.5 million metric tons (Mt) of copper and 21,900 metric tons (t) of silver. The undiscovered deposits are in addition to the 7 known deposits that contain identified resources of 27.6 Mt of copper. Sixty percent of the estimated mean undiscovered copper resources are associated with the two permissive tracts that contain the identified resources; the remaining estimated resources are associated with the two tracts that have no known deposits. For the three tracts that contain 95 percent of the estimated undiscovered copper resources, the probability that each tract contains its estimated mean or more is about 40 percent. For the tract with 5 percent of the estimated undiscovered cop-per resources, the probability that it contains that amount or more is 25 percent.

Chu-Sarysu Basin↗

USGS2025

The influence of pre-existing structures on geothermal springs: Inferences from potential field mapping in Surprise Valley, CA and other sites In the northwestern Great Basin

Surprise Valley, located in the northwestern Great Basin, is an asymmetric extensional basin that marks a major tectonic transition between the relatively un-extended volcanic Modoc Plateau to the west, and the Basin and Range to the east that has undergone 10-15% extension. In addition, it sits just north of the Walker Lane which accommodates up to 20% of dextral slip associated with Pacific-North American plate interactions. Thermal springs issue from eight areas within Surprise Valley. Most of these occur within the basin and are not situated on the main basin forming range-front faults. As a result, efforts to resolve the structural setting of the valley’s hydrothermal system have relied on geophysics to characterize basin structure and geology. Extensive efforts to map the basin with ground and airborne magnetics have revealed a >35 km-long linear, intra-basin magnetic high, interpreted as a buried dike swarm. Geothermal springs on the eastern side of the valley, including Seifert hot springs, Leonards hot springs, and Surprise Valley hot springs (SVHS), are all situated along the magnetic high and occur at local breaks and bends in the anomaly, suggesting that fracture permeability is enhanced along the feature and particularly at these discontinuities. Recent studies, including drilling over the anomaly near SVHS that likely intersected dike material, as well as subsequent mapping and sampling of dikes outcropping along the anomaly on the playa surface south of SVHS, confirm (as previously inferred) that mafic intrusives are the principal source of the anomaly. Similar interpretations made in two other valleys (in southern Oregon and northwestern Nevada), where inferred intra-basin dikes appear to be spatially correlated with hot springs or prospective geothermal resource areas, suggest that the impact of pre-existing basement structure on hydrothermal activity may pertain more generally to other hydrothermal settings throughout the Great Basin. If so, efforts to map basement may enhance understanding structural controls on some geothermal systems. Furthermore, similarities across these disparate sites suggest that magmatism may play a much larger role in accommodating extension and influencing basin evolution across the western Great Basin than previously recognized.

Conference Paper↗

USGS1983

Geologic interpretation of geophysical data for the Wadi al Jarir and Al Jurdhawiyah quadrangles, sheets 25/42 C and D, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

Interpretations of aeromagnetic and gravity data made in support of geologic mapping clearly outline the near-surface shape of Proterozoic granitic units in the Wadi al Jarir (25/42 C) and Al Jurdhawiyah (25/42 D) 1:100,000-scale quadrangles of the northern part of the Arabian Shield. The aeromagnetic data show marked correlation with the surface geology, and the resulting interpretation defines nine magnetic provinces inferred to reflect bodies of granitic rock possessing homogeneous magnetic properties. Several magnetic lineations of possible structural significance are identified and probably relate to Najd faulting. Older structures of the Hijaz tectonic cycle cannot unequivocally be defined. Four of the younger granitic bodies are interpreted to be tabular in cross-section and of finite thickness on the basis of magnetic anomalies defined by high-amplitude, short-wavelength, positive anomalies along the southern margin of the body and counterpart negative anomalies along the northern margin. One of these bodies, a granodiorite porphyry in the northwestern part of the Al Jurdhawiyah quadrangle, is estimated to be from 4 to 7 km thick on the basis of calculations of gravity data. Older granites possess no edge anomalies and therefore are interpreted to extend to greater depth. Peralkaline granites are distinctively nonmagnetic and are identifiable in the aeromagnetic data as areas of little magnetic relief. Correlation of aeromagnetic data and mineral deposit information provide justification for some prospecting guides. Small granodiorite-porphyry plutons with distinct edge anomalies in Murdama metasediments commonly are associated with copper-gold-bearing quartz veins. Vein orientations in these and most other known deposits in the northeastern Shield cannot be sensibly related to the stress field of the Najd fault system, and are believed to predate the Najd or to have been governed by local factors. Small, weakly magnetic targets such as the Bald al Jimalah West tungsten deposit are not indicated by the regional magnetic data.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2003

Field guide to hydrothermal alteration in the White River altered area and in the Osceola Mudflow, Washington

The Cenozoic Cascades arcs of southwestern Washington are the product of long-lived, but discontinuous, magmatism beginning in the Eocene and continuing to the present (for example, Christiansen and Yeats, 1992). This magmatism is the result of subduction of oceanic crust beneath the North American continent. The magmatic rocks are divided into two subparallel, north-trending continental-margin arcs, the Eocene to Pliocene Western Cascades, and the Quaternary High Cascades, which overlies, and is east of, the Western Cascades. Both arcs are calc-alkaline and are characterized by voluminous mafic lava flows (mostly basalt to basaltic andesite compositions) and scattered large stratovolcanoes of mafic andesite to dacite compositions. Silicic volcanism is relatively uncommon. Quartz diorite to granite plutons are exposed in more deeply eroded parts of the Western Cascades Arc (for example, Mount Rainier area and just north of Mt. St. Helens). Hydrothermal alteration is widespread in both Tertiary and Quaternary igneous rocks of the Cascades arcs. Most alteration in the Tertiary Western Cascades Arc resulted from hydrothermal systems associated with small plutons, some of which formed porphyry copper and related deposits, including copper-rich breccia pipes, polymetallic veins, and epithermal gold-silver deposits. Hydrothermal alteration also is present on many Quaternary stratovolcanoes of the High Cascades Arc. On some High Cascades volcanoes, this alteration resulted in severely weakened volcanic edifices that were susceptible to failure and catastrophic landslides. Most notable is the sector collapse of the northeast side of Mount Rainier that occurred about 5,600 yr. B.P. This collapse resulted in formation of the clay-rich Osceola Mudflow that traveled 120 km down valley from Mount Rainier to Puget Sound covering more than 200 km2. This field trip examines several styles and features of hydrothermal alteration related to Cenozoic magmatism in the Cascades arcs. The morning of the trip will examine the White River altered area, which includes high-level alteration related to a large, early Miocene magmatic-hydrothermal system exposed about 10 km east of Enumclaw, Washington. Here, vuggy silica alteration is being quarried for silica and advanced argillic alteration has been prospected for alunite. Clay-filled fractures and sulfide-rich, fine-grained sedimentary rocks of hydrothermal origin locally are enriched in precious metals. Many hydrothermal features common in high-sulfidation gold-silver deposits and in advanced argillic alteration zones overlying porphyry copper deposits (for example, Gustafson and Hunt, 1975; Hedenquist and others, 2000; Sillitoe, 2000) are exposed, although no economic base or precious metal mineralized rock has been discovered to date. The afternoon will be spent examining two exposures of the Osceola Mudflow along the White River. The Osceola Mudflow contains abundant clasts of altered Quaternary rocks from Mount Rainier that show various types of hydrothermal alteration and hydrothermal features. The mudflow matrix contains abundant hydrothermal clay minerals that added cohesiveness to the debris flow and helped allow it to travel much farther down valley than other, noncohesive debris flows from Mount Rainier (Crandell, 1971; Vallance and Scott, 1997). The White River altered area is the subject of ongoing studies by geoscientists from Weyerhaeuser Company and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). The generalized descriptions of the geology, geophysics, alteration, and mineralization presented here represent the preliminary results of this study (Ashley and others, 2003). Additional field, geochemical, geochronologic, and geophysical studies are underway. The Osceola Mudflow and other Holocene debris flows from Mount Rainier also are the subject of ongoing studies by the USGS (for example, Breit and others, 2003; John and others, 2003; Plumlee and others, 2003, Sisson and others, 2003; Vallance and others, 2003). Studies of hydrothermal alteration in the Osceola Mudflow are being used to better understand fossil hydrothermal systems on Mount Rainier and potential hazards associated with this alteration.

Washington↗

USGS2016

Aeromagnetic map of northwest Utah and adjacent parts of Nevada and Idaho

Two aeromagnetic surveys were flown to promote further understanding of the geology and structure in northwest Utah and adjacent parts of Nevada and Idaho by serving as a basis for geophysical interpretations and by supporting geological mapping, water and mineral resource investigations, and other topical studies. Although this area is in general sparsely populated, (except for cities and towns along the Wasatch Front such as Ogden and Brigham City), it encompasses metamorphic core complexes in the Grouse Creek and Raft River Mountains (figure 1) of interest to earth scientists studying Cenozoic extension. The region was shaken in 1909 and 1934 by M6+ earthquakes east of the Hansel Mountains (Doser, 1989; Arabasz and others, 1994); damage from the 1934 earthquake occurred as far east as Logan, Utah (http:// www.seis.utah.edu/lqthreat/nehrp_htm/1934hans/n1934ha1. shtml#urbse). The presence of Quaternary shield volcanoes and bimodal Pleistocene volcanism in Curlew Valley (Miller and others, 1995; Felger and others, 2016) as well as relatively high temperature gradients encountered in the Indian Cove drillhole in the north arm of Great Salt Lake (Blackett and others, 2014) may indicate some potential for geothermal energy development in the area (Miller and others, 1995). The area also hosts four significant mining districts, in the northern Pilot Range, the Goose Creek Mountains in the northwest corner of the map, the southern end of the Promontory Mountains, and the southwest part of the Raft River Mountains, although production notably waned after World War II (Doelling, 1980). Other prospects of interest include those in the southern Grouse Creek Mountains, Silver Island, and the northern Newfoundland Mountains. Large areas of northwest Utah are covered by young, surficial deposits or by Great Salt Lake or are down-dropped into deep Cenozoic basins, making extrapolation of bedrock geology from widely spaced exposures difficult or tenuous (figure 1). Local spatial variations in the Earth's magnetic field (evident as anomalies on aeromagnetic maps) reflect the distribution of magnetic minerals, primarily magnetite, in the underlying rocks. In many cases the volume content of magnetic minerals can be related to rock type, and abrupt spatial changes in the amount of magnetic minerals commonly mark lithologic or structural boundaries. Magnetic data reflect magnetization variations within the crust and are well suited for mapping the distribution of mafic igneous rocks, although felsic igneous rocks, some mineralized zones, and other rock types also can produce measurable magnetic anomalies. For these reasons, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and Utah Geological Survey (UGS) contracted for the collection of aeromagnetic data in this area.

Idaho, Nevada, Utah↗

USGS2010

First Results of the Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models Experiment

The ability to successfully predict the future behavior of a system is a strong indication that the system is well understood. Certainly many details of the earthquake system remain obscure, but several hypotheses related to earthquake occurrence and seismic hazard have been proffered, and predicting earthquake behavior is a worthy goal and demanded by society. Along these lines, one of the primary objectives of the Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) working group was to formalize earthquake occurrence hypotheses in the form of prospective earthquake rate forecasts in California. RELM members, working in small research groups, developed more than a dozen 5-year forecasts; they also outlined a performance evaluation method and provided a conceptual description of a Testing Center in which to perform predictability experiments. Subsequently, researchers working within the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) have begun implementing Testing Centers in different locations worldwide, and the RELM predictability experiment-a truly prospective earthquake prediction effort-is underway within the U. S. branch of CSEP. The experiment, designed to compare time-invariant 5-year earthquake rate forecasts, is now approximately halfway to its completion. In this paper, we describe the models under evaluation and present, for the first time, preliminary results of this unique experiment. While these results are preliminary-the forecasts were meant for an application of 5 years-we find interesting results: most of the models are consistent with the observation and one model forecasts the distribution of earthquakes best. We discuss the observed sample of target earthquakes in the context of historical seismicity within the testing region, highlight potential pitfalls of the current tests, and suggest plans for future revisions to experiments such as this one. ?? 2010 The Author(s).

Pure and Applied Geophysics↗

USGS1986

Mineral Resources of the Warm Springs Wilderness Study Area, Mohave County, Arizona

At the request of the U.S. Bureau of Land Management, approximately 113,500 acres of the Warm Springs Wilderness Study Area (AZ-020-028/029) were evaluated for mineral resources and mineral resource potential. In this report, the area studied is referred to as the 'wilderness study area' or 'study area'; any reference to the Warm Springs Wilderness Study Area refers only to that part of the wilderness study area for which a mineral survey was requested. This study area is located in west-central Arizona. The U.S. Geological Survey and the U.S. Bureau of Mines conducted geological, geochemical, and geophysical surveys to appraise the identified mineral resources (known) and assess the mineral resource potential (undiscovered) of the study area. fieldwork for this report was carried out largely in 1986-1989. There is a 1-million short ton indicated subeconomic resource of clinoptilolite-mordenite zeolite and an additional inferred resource of 2 million short tons near McHeffy Butte, approximately 2 miles west of the study area. A perlite deposit in the southeast corner of the study area contains an inferred subeconomic resource totaling 13 million short tons. An inferred subeconomic resource of gold in 225 short tons of quartz having a grade of 0.01 8 troy ounces per short ton is present at the Cook mine, 0.5 miles west of the study area. The northwestern part of the Warm Springs Wilderness Study Area has high mineral resource potential for gold and silver. The south-central part of the study area has one area of moderate and one area north of this south-central part has low mineral resource potential for gold and silver in and near Warm Springs Canyon; the mineral resource potential for gold is also moderate in three small areas in the southern part and one area in the northeastern part of the study area. The mineral resource potential for zeolite is high for the area surrounding the McHeffy Butte prospect and for one area in the southern part of the study area. Two areas inside the south and southeast boundaries of the study area have high mineral resource potential for perlite. The potential for ka: olinite resources is moderate in two areas in the southern part of the study area. The southern part of the study area has low resource potential for perlite and zeolite. Geothermal energy resource potential of the study area is low. The study area has no resource potential for oil and gas.

Bulletin↗

USGS1988

Regional geochemical maps of the Tonopah 1 degree by 2 degrees Quadrangle, Nevada, based on samples of stream sediment and nonmagnetic heavy-mineral concentrate

This report is part of a series of geologic, geochemical, and geophysical maps of the Tonopah 1° x 2° quadrangle, Nevada, prepared during studies of the area for the Conterminous United States Mineral Assessment Program (CUSMAP). Included here are 21 maps showing the distributions of selected elements or combinations of elements. These regional geochemical maps are based on chemical analyses of the minus-60 mesh (0.25 mm) fraction of stream-sediment samples and the nonmagnetic heavy-mineral concentrate derived from stream sediment. Stream sediments were collected at 1,217 sites. Our geochemical studies of mineralized rock samples provide a framework for evaluating the results from stream sediments. The Tonopah 1° x 2° quadrangle comprises about 19,100 km 2 (7,450 mi 2 ) in west-central Nevada (fig. 1). Topography is typical of the Basin and Range province, consisting of angular mountain ranges separated by broad valleys that comprise about half the area. Topographic relief is generally about 1,000 m but in some places is more than 1,500 m. Most of the ranges have well-developed drainages in steep-walled canyons occupied by intermittent streams. The climate is semi-arid to arid. Pinon pine and juniper grow in most places at elevations above 2,100 m, and sagebrush is abundant at lower elevations. Major access is provided by U.S. Routes 6 and 95, and there are numerous county maintained gravel roads and unmaintained jeep trails. Bedrock geology of the Tonopah quadrangle is a complex mosaic of late Precambrian to Tertiary rocks juxtaposed by numerous thrust and high-angle faults. Useful geologic summaries can be found in reports by Ross (1961), Albers and Stewart (1972), Stewart and Carlson (1978), and Kleinhampl and Ziony (1985). Mineral prospects and mines occur in igneous, metamorphic, and sedimentary rocks of all ages, and mines are particularly abundant in the central and western parts of the quadrangle. The complex geology produces clasts of mixed lithology in alluvium in all drainage basins sampled in this study, and the numerous mines and prospects probably contaminate many drainages. The geochemical maps in this report are based on analytical results reported by Fairfield and others (1985), Hill and others (1986), and Siems and others (1986). These reports also describe the sample preparation and analytical methods and provide information on the location of the sample sites.

Nevada↗

USGS2024

Lake water temperature modeling in an era of climate change: Data sources, models, and future prospects

Lake thermal dynamics have been considerably impacted by climate change, with potential adverse effects on aquatic ecosystems. To better understand the potential impacts of future climate change on lake thermal dynamics and related processes, the use of mathematical models is essential. In this study, we provide a comprehensive review of lake water temperature modeling. We begin by discussing the physical concepts that regulate thermal dynamics in lakes, which serve as a primer for the description of process-based models. We then provide an overview of different sources of observational water temperature data, including in situ monitoring and satellite Earth observations, used in the field of lake water temperature modeling. We classify and review the various lake water temperature models available, and then discuss model performance, including commonly used performance metrics and optimization methods. Finally, we analyze emerging modeling approaches, including forecasting, digital twins, combining process-based modeling with deep learning, evaluating structural model differences through ensemble modeling, adapted water management, and coupling of climate and lake models. This review is aimed at a diverse group of professionals working in the fields of limnology and hydrology, including ecologists, biologists, physicists, engineers, and remote sensing researchers from the private and public sectors who are interested in understanding lake water temperature modeling and its potential applications.

Review of Geophysics↗

USGS2019

Crustal architecture beneath the southern Midcontinent (USA) and controls on Mesoproterozoic iron-oxide mineralization from 3D geophysical models

Several types of critical mineral-bearing ore deposits in the southern Midcontinent region of the U.S. are hosted in Mesoproterozoic igneous rocks largely concealed beneath Paleozoic cover. Discerning the architecture of igneous intrusions and volcanic centers in the crust is fundamental to understanding the geologic evolution of this vast region and its mineral resources. To advance the understanding of the geologic framework beneath the Southeast Missouri Iron Metallogenic Province, we invert continental-scale magnetic and gravity anomaly data to three-dimensional (3D) physical property models. The regional models image altered and mineralized igneous rocks near the Precambrian basement surface and underlying intrusive complexes that extend down to the Moho. At shallow crustal levels, our models confirm that iron oxide-apatite ± rare earth element (IOA±REE) deposits and iron oxide-copper-gold ± cobalt (IOCG) deposits occur within or near the edges of large low density/low susceptibility early Mesoproterozoic (ca 1.4 Ga) silicic calderas and (ca 1.3 Ga) granitic plutons. Previous isotopic and geochemical studies conclude that the iron deposits and their volcanic host rocks originated from mantle-derived and crustal melts that erupted during regional extension. Extension was associated with thermal event(s) that produced the large-scale silicic magmatism related to the ca 1.45 Ga Eastern Granite Rhyolite Province (EGRP) and the 1.35 Ga Southern Granite Rhyolite Province (SGRP). We postulate that early in the evolution of the EGRP, several trans-crustal magmatic plumbing systems developed that are evident in the 3D models. The Southeast Missouri Metallogenic Province is underlain by one such magmatic system that is expressed as a northwest-trending ~ 50 km-wide by 200 km-long elongate track of high susceptibility at deep crustal levels. The high susceptibility corridor splays upward through the crust to the Precambrian surface where the iron deposits are the epigenetic manifestation of this magmatic event. Our findings confirm that the iron deposits, with no distinct connection at the surface, are connected to one large magmatic system at depth. We propose that other similar susceptibility tracks, which are present along the top of the mantle, mark additional feeder zones that allowed magma to ascend to the main eruptive centers that produced the Granite Rhyolite Provinces. The early Mesoproterozoic extensional tectonic framework established crustal-scale pathways that controlled the distribution of subsequent magmatic activity, including the ca 1.4 Ga calderas and underlying intrusions, ca 1.3 Ga silicic plutons and Phanerozoic alkaline intrusions. If these interpretations are correct, our study has identified large areas that are prospective for critical mineral-bearing ore deposits and, importantly, suggests that the Mesoproterozoic architecture may have influenced subsequent magmatism and hydrothermal activity in the southern Midcontinent of the U.S.

Ore Geology Reviews↗

USGS1957

Gravity prospecting for chromite deposits in Camaguey Province, Cuba

Detailed gravity surveys were made in Camaguey Province, Cuba, as part of a systematic exploration program conducted by the U. S. Geological Survey on behalf of the General Services Administration to locate deposits of refractory-grade chromite. During the period August 4, 1954, to April 5, 1956, a total of 41,921 gravity stations were established in nine areas embracing about 11.8 square miles in the Camaguey chromite district. The results of the surveys were used in connection with information obtained in geologic investigations to guide exploratory drilling.Gravimeters with low scale constants were used in making measurements sufficiently accurate to delimit anomalies as small as 0.5 gravity unit. The measurements were made over 20 X 40 and 30 X 60 meter grids and at stations 20 and 30 meters apart, respectively, along intermediate traverses in anomalous areas. Gravity differences were determined by single observations at individual stations, observing base stations hourly, and re-observing a few stations to check drift and accuracy of measurement. About 11 percent of the stations established had to be re-run because of errors in closure, microseisms, and instrument trouble.A large number of anomalies were found and evaluated according to geology, areal extent, and gravity relief. Depths to disturbing hypothetical bodies were computed to guide drilling. Test drilling of 106 positive anomalies revealed that ten features overlie deposits of chromite and 89 occur over bodies of other dense materials. The other seven anomalies were not explained by materials found in drilling. Core drilling on five of the chromite deposits revealed about 236,000 tons of chromite. An additional estimated 12,000 tons are contained in three deposits which were not blocked out. No estimate was made of the tonnage in two small deposits.

Camaguey↗

USGS1997

Selection of the Mars Pathfinder landing site

The Mars Pathfinder spacecraft will land on a depositional fan near the mouth of the catastrophic outflow channel, Ares Vallis (19.5°N, 32.8°W). This site offers the prospect of analyzing a variety of rock types from the ancient cratered highlands, intermediate-age ridged plains, and reworked channel deposits. Analyses of these rocks by Pathfinder instruments will enable first-order scientific questions to be addressed, such as differentiation of the crust, the development of weathering products, and the nature of the early environment, as well as their subsequent evolution on Mars. Constraints imposed by (1) spacecraft and rover designs (which are robust), (2) entry, descent, and landing, (3) scientific potential at various sites, and (4) safety were important considerations in site selection. Engineering constraints require a 70 km by 200 km smooth, flat (low slopes) area located between 10° and 20°N that is below 0 km elevation, with average radar reflectivity, little dust, and moderate rock abundance. Three regions on Mars are between 10° and 20°N and below 0 km elevation: Chryse, Amazonis, and Isidis-Elysium. Science considerations favor sites at the mouths of outflow channels (grab bag sites offer an assay of rock types on Mars), highland sites (early crustal differentiation and climate), and sites covered with dark (unoxidized) material. Sites are considered safe if they are clearly below 0 km elevation, appear acceptably free of hazards in high-resolution (<50 m/pixel) Viking orbiter images and have acceptable reflectivity and roughness at radar wavelengths, thermal inertia, rock abundance, red to violet ratio, and albedo. Recent 3.5-cm wavelength radar observations were used to verify elevation, reflectivity, and roughness within the landing ellipses. Three sites meet all of these criteria: Ares Vallis, Tritonis Lacus, and Isidis. Although Isidis appears to be safer than Tritonis and Ares, the greater scientific potential at Ares Vallis resulted in its selection. Comparisons of the Grand Coulee (channel) and the depositional Ephrata Fan of the Channeled Scabland in eastern Washington, with Ares Vallis and its depositional fan also suggest the Ares Vallis landing site is safe and scientifically interesting.

Journal of Geophysical Research Planets↗

USGS1986

Mines and prospects of the Butte 1° x 2° Quadrangle, Montana

The Butte quadrangle, in the Northern Rocky Mountains of southwestern Montana, has had a long, productive, and colorful mining history. Butte, the city from which the quadrangle takes its name, is located in the most famous mining district of the quadrangle. This district, the Butte or Summit Valley district, has been described as the "richest hill on earth" and is one of the richest and most productive mining districts of the world. The quantity of metals produced from this district alone are far greater than the combined total of all commodities from all other mining districts of the quadrangle. However, many districts other than Butte have had significant production as compared to other mining districts of the Northern Rocky Mountains. The dollar value of production from the Butte district is more than $6 billion (Miller, 1973) and that of the combined total of production from the other districts in the quadrangle is more than $400 million. These values are based on actual metal prices at the time of production. The totals would be many times larger if converted to present day commodity prices. Mineral occurrence data for a total of 1111 mines, prospects, and mineral occurrences have been compiled for the Butte quadrangle. These mineralized sites are found throughout the quadrangle but most are concentrated in the major mining districts; 78 percent are clustered in 46 established mining districts and the remaining 22 percent are more widely scattered in 24 geographic areas (fig. 1). Only small areas of the quadrangle lack significant mines, prospects, or mineral occurrences. The locations of mines and prospects are shown on maps (pl. 1 and 2) and a brief description of each site is given in a table arranged by mining district or geographic area (table 1) (all tables are at end of report). This table gives a brief description of each district or area and details of each site within the district or area including site number, name and alternate name(s), location by latitude and longitude, commodities present, description of the site, and sources of data. Data for this report come from the U.S. Geological Survey Mineral Resource Data System (MRDS; this was formerly known as the Computerized Resource Information Bank (CRIB)), from many published and unpublished sources, and from geologic field work. The Butte quadrangle is in southwestern Montana and is bounded by latitudes 46° and 47° N. and longitudes 112° and 114° W. The city of Butte is near the southern edge and in the southeastern corner of the quadrangle. Helena, the state capital of Montana, is located on the eastern edge and Missoula is located near the northwestern corner of the quadrangle. Most of the area of the quadrangle is in Granite, Powell, Lewis and Clark, and Jefferson Counties and the remaining area includes parts of Missoula, Ravalli, Deer Lodge, and Silver Bow Counties. The quadrangle includes a number of major and minor mountain ranges separated by intermontane valleys. The continental divide trends nearly north-south through the eastern part of the quadrangle to a point near Butte, then trends generally east-west near the southern boundary of the quadrangle, west of Butte. East of the divide the drainages are tributary to the Missouri River and west of the divide the drainages are tributary to the Clark Fork, which heads in the vicinity of Butte. The geology of the Butte quadrangle is very complex. Sedimentary and igneous rocks range in age from Proterozoic to Tertiary. Most of the pre-Tertiary sedimentary rocks are structurally complex due to widespread faulting and folding. Due to thrust faulting, complete sequences of these sedimentary units are not generally present in the quadrangle and the thicknesses and lithologies are variable from one thrust plate to another. The oldest rocks in the quadrangle are sedimentary rocks of the Belt Supergroup of Middle Proterozoic age. They form very thick sequences, are exposed over a large percentage of the area of the quadrangle, and include formations of the lower, middle, and upper parts of the Belt. Individual formations are as much as 13,000 ft thick (C. A. Wallace, unpub. data) and the maximum thickness of the Belt Supergroup in the quadrangle may be similar to that of the entire sequence near Alberton, Montana, to the northwest of the Butte quadrangle where it exceeds 67,000 ft (Harrison, 1972). In many areas of the quadrangle these Precambrian rocks are overlain by thin to moderately thick sequences of Cambrian to Permian sedimentary rocks. The maximum thickness of the Paleozoic section is about 8,000 ft (C. A. Wallace, unpub. data). A relatively thick sequence of Mesozoic sedimentary rocks, predominantly Cretaceous in age, which is found mostly in the central part of the quadrangle, overlies the Paleozoic rocks. If complete, the Mesozoic sequence would total about 28,000 ft (C. A. Wallace, unpub. data). The Butte quadrangle is located in a structurally complex region. Most of the Butte quadrangle is in the southern part of the Montana Disturbed Belt, a tectonic belt in the Northern Rocky Mountains characterized by northwest-trending faults and intense deformation. An element of the Disturbed Belt, called the Sapphire Thrust System occupies most of the western two-thirds of the quadrangle. Sedimentary rocks of Cretaceous and older ages in the Sapphire Thrust System have been complexly folded and faulted. Plutonic rocks, which intrude the sedimentary units, and volcanic rocks of Cretaceous and Tertiary ages are widespread in the quadrangle. Most of these are post-thrusting but some may be pre- or syn-tectonic and involved in the thrusting and folding. Most of the mineral wealth in the quadrangle, in the form of hydrothermal ore deposits, is genetically related to Cretaceous granitic plutonism. Igneous activity decreased but continued into Tertiary time, at least until the Oligocene. In the Butte quadrangle the Cenozoic Era was important for normal faulting, volcanism, sedimentation, glaciation, and the formation of many important mineral deposits. Many normal faults were especially active during the Miocene and Pliocene and some were active into the Quaternary. Volcanic rocks of Eocene and Oligocene age cover large areas and are genetically related to several important mining districts. During Cenozoic time, thick accumulations of Tertiary basin-fill sediments, Pleistocene glacial till and outwash, and Holocene alluvium and colluvium were deposited. The Cenozoic was important for the formation of placer deposits valuable mainly for gold but some have produced important quantities of sapphires and tungsten. This map is part of a folio of maps of the Butte 1° x 2°quadrangle, Montana, prepared under the Conterminous United States Mineral Assessment Program (CUSMAP). Other maps to be published as part of this folio are a geologic map, geochemical maps, geophysical maps, maps of linear features and limonitic alteration interpreted from satellite and airborne radar data, and mineral resource assessment maps.

Montana↗