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USGS2025

The importance of method selection when estimating diet composition with quantitative fatty acid signature analysis

Quantitative fatty acid signature analysis (QFASA) is a common method of estimating the composition of prey species in the diets of consumers from polar and temperate ecosystems in which lipids are an important source of energy. A key characteristic of QFASA is that the large number of fatty acids that typically comprise lipids permits the dietary contributions of a correspondingly large number of prey types to be estimated. Several modifications to the original QFASA methods have been suggested in the literature and a significant extension of the original model published in 2017 allows simultaneous estimation of both diet proportions and calibration coefficients, which are metabolic constants in the model whose values must otherwise be estimated in independent feeding experiments. However, comparisons of diet estimates obtained using different estimation options have been limited. QFASA has been used to estimate the diet composition of several polar bear ( Ursus maritimus ) subpopulations, including the Southern Beaufort Sea (SBS) subpopulation. Prior QFASA estimates of SBS polar bear diet composition have most often been obtained using variations of the original QFASA model. We investigated the influence of variations in QFASA analytical methods on diet estimates by re-estimating the diet composition of polar bears from the Alaska portion of the SBS using three different methods and found that differences among the three sets of estimates were substantial. Our results illustrate how important the careful and deliberate selection of QFASA methods can be and we provide some guidance on techniques one might use to evaluate options.

PLoS ONE↗

USGS2004

Exploitation of pocket gophers and their food caches by grizzly bears

I investigated the exploitation of pocket gophers (Thomomys talpoides) by grizzly bears (Ursus arctos horribilis) in the Yellowstone region of the United States with the use of data collected during a study of radiomarked bears in 1977-1992. My analysis focused on the importance of pocket gophers as a source of energy and nutrients, effects of weather and site features, and importance of pocket gophers to grizzly bears in the western contiguous United States prior to historical extirpations. Pocket gophers and their food caches were infrequent in grizzly bear feces, although foraging for pocket gophers accounted for about 20-25% of all grizzly bear feeding activity during April and May. Compared with roots individually excavated by bears, pocket gopher food caches were less digestible but more easily dug out. Exploitation of gopher food caches by grizzly bears was highly sensitive to site and weather conditions and peaked during and shortly after snowmelt. This peak coincided with maximum success by bears in finding pocket gopher food caches. Exploitation was most frequent and extensive on gently sloping nonforested sites with abundant spring beauty (Claytonia lanceolata) and yampah (Perdieridia gairdneri). Pocket gophers are rare in forests, and spring beauty and yampah roots are known to be important foods of both grizzly bears and burrowing rodents. Although grizzly bears commonly exploit pocket gophers only in the Yellowstone region, this behavior was probably widespread in mountainous areas of the western contiguous United States prior to extirpations of grizzly bears within the last 150 years.

Journal of Mammalogy↗

USGS1966

Insecticide contaminations in wetland habitats and their effects on fish- eating birds

An unusual mortality of fish-eating birds occurred at the Tule Lake National Wildlife Refuge in California between 1960 and 1962. Over 1100 dead birds of ten species were found during that period. Investigations of the mortality indicated that birds died as a result of their exposure to toxaphene, which was applied to adjoining agricultural areas, transported to the refuge in waste irrigation water, and accumulated in fish eaten by the birds. Toxaphene was used in agriculture for only 3 years, 1958-60, and by 1962 residues were no longer found in the marsh habitat. However, results also showed that a potentially hazardous contamination of DDT and its metabolites was present in the birds and the environment. Studies were, therefore, continued to determine the food-chain relationships of DDT in marsh ecosystems, and the effects of the insecticide on birds. Sampling for insecticide residues was undertaken at four waterfowl refuges, each representing a somewhat different set of environmental conditions. DDT residues in water at each refuge were found to be relatively low, but filtered samples showed that residues in suspended material were 10 000 to 20 000 times as great as those in the filtrate. Much of the suspended material was organic matter, which is an important source of energy for the ecosystems. In environments with invertebrates, DDT residues were relatively low in sediments and high in fish, while residues in vegetation were highest where invertebrates were absent. Results suggest that organic materials and invertebrates can be important factors in determining the fate and involvement of insecticides in aquatic environments. Studies of the movements, exposure to pesticides, productivity, and longevity of individuals in three nesting colonies of White Pelicans were begun in 1962 to depict the relationships of pesticides to a migratory population of birds dependent upon wetland habitats. To date there is no evidence that the exposure of pelicans to DDT is influencing the population dynamics of the birds.

California, Oregon↗

USGS1999

Primary Aluminum Plants Worldwide - 1998

The 1990 U.S. Bureau of Mines publication, Primary Aluminum Plants Worldwide, has been updated and is now available. The 1998 USGS edition of Primary Aluminum Plants Worldwide is published in two parts. Part I—Detail contains information on individual primary smelter capacity, location, ownership, sources of energy, and other miscellaneous information. Part II—Summary summarizes the capacity data by country

Report↗

USGS1995

Maps showing gas-hydrate distribution off the east coast of the United States

These maps present the inferred distribution of natural-gas hydrate within the sediments of the eastern United States continental margin (Exclusive Economic Zone) in the offshore region from Georgia to New Jersey (fig. 1). The maps, which were created on the basis of seismic interpretations, represent the first attempt to map volume estimates for gas hydrate. Gas hydrate forms a large reservoir for methane in oceanic sediments. Therefore it potentially may represent a future source of energy and it may influence climate change because methane is a very effective greenhouse gas. Hydrate breakdown probably is a controlling factor for sea-floor landslides, and its presence has significant effect on the acoustic velocity of sea-floor sediments.

East Coast↗

USGS2011

Habitat diversity in the Northeastern Gulf of Mexico: Selected video clips from the Gulfstream Natural Gas Pipeline digital archive

This project combines underwater video with maps and descriptions to illustrate diverse seafloor habitats from Tampa Bay, Florida, to Mobile Bay, Alabama. A swath of seafloor was surveyed with underwater video to 100 meters (m) water depth in 1999 and 2000 as part of the Gulfstream Natural Gas System Survey. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in St. Petersburg, Florida, in cooperation with Eckerd College and the Florida Department of Environmental Protection (FDEP), produced an archive of analog-to-digital underwater movies. Representative clips of seafloor habitats were selected from hundreds of hours of underwater footage. The locations of video clips were mapped to show the distribution of habitat and habitat transitions. The numerous benthic habitats in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico play a vital role in the region's economy, providing essential resources for tourism, natural gas, recreational water sports (fishing, boating, scuba diving), materials, fresh food, energy, a source of sand for beach renourishment, and more. These submerged natural resources are important to the economy but are often invisible to the general public. This product provides a glimpse of the seafloor with sample underwater video, maps, and habitat descriptions. It was developed to depict the range and location of seafloor habitats in the region but is limited by depth and by the survey track. It should not be viewed as comprehensive, but rather as a point of departure for inquiries and appreciation of marine resources and seafloor habitats. Further information is provided in the Resources section.

Florida;Alabama;Mississippi;Louisiana↗

USGS2005

Hydrogeologic framework and estimates of ground-water volumes in Tertiary and upper Cretaceous hydrogeologic units in the Powder River basin, Wyoming

The Powder River Basin in Wyoming and Montana is an important source of energy resources for the United States. Coalbed methane gas is contained in Tertiary and upper Cretaceous hydrogeologic units in the Powder River Basin. This gas is released when water pressure in coalbeds is lowered, usually by pumping ground water. Issues related to disposal and uses of by-product water from coalbed methane production have developed, in part, due to uncertainties in hydrologic properties. One hydrologic property of primary interest is the amount of water contained in Tertiary and upper Cretaceous hydrogeologic units in the Powder River Basin. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Bureau of Land Management, conducted a study to describe the hydrogeologic framework and to estimate ground-water volumes in different facies of Tertiary and upper Cretaceous hydrogeologic units in the Powder River Basin in Wyoming. A geographic information system was used to compile and utilize hydrogeologic maps, to describe the hydrogeologic framework, and to estimate the volume of ground water in Tertiary and upper Cretaceous hydrogeologic units in the Powder River structural basin in Wyoming. Maps of the altitudes of potentiometric surfaces, altitudes of the tops and bottoms of hydrogeologic units, thicknesses of hydrogeologic units, percent sand of hydrogeologic units, and outcrop boundaries for the following hydrogeologic units were used: Tongue River-Wasatch aquifer, Lebo confining unit, Tullock aquifer, Upper Hell Creek confining unit, and the Fox Hills-Lower Hell Creek aquifer. Literature porosity values of 30 percent for sand and 35 percent for non-sand facies were used to calculate the volume of total ground water in each hydrogeologic unit. Literature specific yield values of 26 percent for sand and 10 percent for non-sand facies, and literature specific storage values of 0.0001 ft-1 (1/foot) for sand facies and 0.00001 ft-1 for non-sand facies, were used to calculate a second volume of ground water for each hydrogeologic unit. Significant figure considerations limited estimates of ground-water volumes to two significant digits. A total ground-water volume of 2.0x1014 ft3 (cubic feet) was calculated using porosity values, and a total ground-water volume of 3.6x1013 ft3 was calculated using specific yield and specific storage values. These results are consistent with retention properties, which would have some of the total water being retained in the sediments. Sensitivity analysis shows that the estimates of ground-water volume are most sensitive to porosity. The estimates also are sensitive to confined thickness and saturated thickness. Better spatial information for hydrogeologic units could help refine the ground-water volume estimates.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2015

Dim ultraviolet light as a means of deterring activity by the Hawaiian hoary bat Lasiurus cinereus semotus

Widespread bat fatalities at industrial wind turbines are a conservation issue with the potential to inhibit efficient use of an abundant source of energy. Bat fatalities can be reduced by altering turbine operations, but such curtailment decreases turbine efficiency. If additional ways of reducing bat fatalities at wind turbines were available such tradeoffs might not be needed. Based on the facts that bats perceive distant objects primarily through vision and can see in very dim lighting conditions, and the possibility that bats might interact with turbines after approaching them as they would trees, we propose a novel method of reducing bat activity at wind turbines: illumination of the structure with dim light. As a first step toward assessing this approach, we illuminated trees with dim flickering ultraviolet (UV) light in areas frequented by Hawaiian hoary bats Lasiurus cinereus semotus , an endangered subspecies affected by wind turbines. We used a repeated-measures design to quantify bat activity near trees with acoustic detectors and thermal video cameras in the presence and absence of UV illumination, while concurrently monitoring insect numbers. Results indicate that dim UV reduces bat activity despite an increase in insect numbers. Experimental treatment did not completely inhibit bat activity near trees, nor did all measures of bat activity show statistically significant differences due to high variance in bat activity among sites. However, the observed decreases in bat activity with dim UV illumination justify further testing of this method as a means to reduce bat fatalities at wind turbines.

Hawaii↗

USGS2012

Coastal impacts, adaptation, and vulnerabilities: a technical input to the 2013 National Climate Assessment

The coast has long provided communities with a multitude of benefits including an abundance of natural resources that sustain economies, societies, and ecosystems. Coasts provide natural harbors for commerce, trade, and transportation; beaches and shorelines that attract residents and tourists; and wetlands and estuaries that are critical for fisheries and water resources. Coastal ecosystems provide critical functions to cycle and move nutrients, store carbon, detoxify wastes, and purify air and water. These areas also mitigate floods and buffer against coastal storms that bring high winds and salt water inland and erode the shore. Coastal regions are critical in the development, transportation, and processing of oil and natural gas resources and, more recently, are being explored as a source of energy captured from wind and waves. The many benefits and opportunities provided in coastal areas have strengthened our economic reliance on coastal resources. Consequently, the high demands placed on the coastal environment will increase commensurately with human activity. Because 35 U.S. states, commonwealths, and territories have coastlines that border the oceans or Great Lakes, impacts to coastline systems will reverberate through social, economic, and natural systems across the U.S. Impacts on coastal systems are among the most costly and most certain consequences of a warming climate (Nicholls et al., 2007). The warming atmosphere is expected to accelerate sea-level rise as a result of the decline of glaciers and ice sheets and the thermal expansion of sea water. As mean sea level rises, coastal shorelines will retreat and low-lying areas will tend to be inundated more frequently, if not permanently, by the advancing sea. As atmospheric temperature increases and rainfall patterns change, soil moisture and runoff to the coast are likely to be altered. An increase in the intensity of climatic extremes such as storms and heat spells, coupled with other impacts of climate change and the effects of human development, could affect the sustainability of many existing coastal communities and natural resources. This report, one of a series of technical inputs for the third NCA conducted under the auspices of the U.S. Global Change Research Program, examines the known effects and relationships of climate change variables on the coasts of the U.S. It describes the impacts on natural and human systems, including several major sectors of the U.S. economy, and the progress and challenges to planning and implementing adaptation options. Below we present the key findings from each chapter of the report, beginning with the following key findings from Chapter 1: Introduction and Context.

Book↗

USGS2011

Young (<7 Ma) gold deposits and active geothermal systems of the Great Basin: Enigmas, questions, and exploration potential

Young gold systems in the Great Basin (£ 7 Ma), though not as well studied as their older counterparts, comprise a rapidly growing and in some ways controversial group. The gold inventory for these systems has more than doubled in the last 5 years from roughly 370 tonnes (12 Moz) to 890 tonnes (29 Moz). Although these deposits are characterized by low grades, tonnages can be high and stripping ratios low, and they have been mined profitably, as exemplified by Florida Canyon and Hycroft. Active geothermal systems in the Great Basin also comprise a rapidly growing group, as evidenced by a number of recent discoveries of geothermal groundwater and a more than 50% increase in electricity production capacity from these systems in the last 5 years. Many young gold deposits are closely associated with active geothermal systems, suggesting that gold deposits may be forming today in the Great Basin. Measured or estimated geothermal reservoir temperatures commonly approach or exceed 200∞C, and other characteristics and processes (advanced argillic caps, hydrothermal eruption breccias) of these young deposits resemble those of nearby Tertiary precious metal deposits. Nonetheless, many young gold systems, especially in Nevada, are not associated with coeval igneous rocks. Similarly, almost all electricity-grade geothermal systems in Nevada are not associated with Quaternary silicic volcanic rocks, and have lower temperature gradients, lower 3He/4He ratios, and lower dissolved trace element concentrations than most magmatic-heated geothermal systems elsewhere in the world. The increasing economic significance of young gold deposits and active geothermal systems justifies more research to better understand their origins, particularly because in some aspects they remain enigmatic and controversial. Are young gold deposits in Nevada truly amagmatic, or have they received metal and fluid contributions from magmas deeper within the crust? Has gold in these deposits been remobilized from older gold mineralization? Current research is investigating these and other questions to improve our genetic understanding of these young gold systems, which in turn can lead to improved exploration targeting. The recent rapid growth in resources for both young gold deposits and geothermal systems underscores their underdeveloped exploration potential. Even though many young gold deposits exhibit relatively shallow hot-springs-style mineralization, their young age may preclude exposure by erosion. Uplift along active normal faults has exposed some deposits (e.g., Florida Canyon, Dixie Comstock, Wind Mountain), but in other areas, such as the Walker Lane, where strike-slip faulting is prevalent, the opportunities for exposure can be limited. Many active geothermal systems are also concealed below the surface in that hot springs or steam vents may be absent above areas of thermal groundwater. With sources of energy to support mine production becoming more problematic, the potential advantages of simultaneously exploring for young gold deposits and spatially associated geothermal systems are becoming more apparent. Exploration methods recently proven effective in geothermal exploration that can be adapted to gold exploration include temperature surveys, hyperspectral remote sensing, geophysical surveys, water analyses, and detailed mapping of geothermal-related features and related fault systems.

Conference Paper↗

USGS1971

Banquet speech "Man's conquest of energy, its ecological and human consequences"

The world's energy resources suitable for power production are of two classes: (1) various channels of the continuous energy flux from extraterrestrial sources, and from the earth's interior, and (2) chemical, thermal, and nuclear energy stored in the outer part of the lithosphere and in the oceans. The continuous energy influxes are from: solar radiation, 178,000 × 1012 watts; geothermal energy, 32 × 1012 watts; and tidal energy, 3 × 1012 watts. Of the solar energy influx, the only fraction suitable at present for large-scale power production is the approximately 40,000 × 1012 watts expended in evaporation of water and in atmospheric and oceanic circulation. Of this, the world's potential water power is about 2.9 × 1012 watts. A very small fraction of the solar influx, 40 × 1012 watts, is stored chemically by photosynthesis. A minute fraction of this, stored during the geologic past, is the source of the energy of the fossil fuels, coal and petroleum. Tidal power is capable of large-scale development in a small number of coastal localities with a total potential power of about 64,000 megawatts. Of the sources of stored energy, geothermal energy is the least important. Installed capacity by 1970 is about 1,125 electrical megawatts, and the ultimate potential is estimated at about 60,000 megawatts, with a lifetime of probably less than a century. The largest sources of stored energy, other than nuclear, are the fossil fuels. The initial minable world reserves of coal and lignite are estimated to have been about 7.

IEEE Transactions on Nuclear Science↗

USGS2023

Forage fish species prefer habitat within designated offshore wind energy areas on the US Northeast Shelf ecosystem

As the world develops sources of renewable energy, there is an intensifying interest in offshore wind energy production. The Northeast U.S. Continental Shelf (NES) ecosystem has favorable wind dynamics, with active development of wind energy. In this study, we present species distribution models that consider both occupancy and biomass responses for a broad spectrum of fish and macroinvertebrate taxa ( n = 177). Building upon prior analyses, habitat was differentiated into overall and core habitats based on statistical distributions of habitat scores. Overall habitat was used to show each species' regional distribution based on fishery-independent survey captures between 1976 and 2019, whereas core habitat represented where the focus of the species' abundance was located as a subset of overall habitat. Wind energy developments may modify the water column in ways that impact lower-trophic-level productivity; therefore, added attention was given to the response of forage species. Over 20% of species showed preferential use of putative and potential wind development areas, including a disproportionate number of forage taxa. Principal usage varied by season, with forage species like Atlantic Menhaden Brevoortia tyrannus and Atlantic Mackerel Scomber scombrus preferentially using the lease areas in spring and Round Herring Etrumeus teres and longfin inshore squid Doryteuthis pealeii using lease areas in autumn. For species with relatively low usage of the lease areas, there was a tendency for the usage related to overall habitat to be lower than usage for core habitat; in contrast, for species with high usage of the lease areas, that usage was higher for overall habitat than for core habitat. The area of habitat tended to have positive trends across species, with these positive trends being disproportionately higher among forage taxa. These results frame the importance of wind lease areas for species in the NES, particularly forage taxa that fulfill many important ecological functions.

Marine and Coastal Fisheries: Dynamics, Management↗

USGS2009

Strontium isotope record of seasonal scale variations in sediment sources and accumulation in low-energy, subtidal areas of the lower Hudson River estuary

Strontium isotope ( 87 Sr/ 86 Sr) profiles in sediment cores collected from two subtidal harbor slips in the lower Hudson River estuary in October 2001 exhibit regular patterns of variability with depth. Using additional evidence from sediment Ca/Sr ratios, 137 Cs activity and Al, carbonate (CaCO 3 ), and organic carbon (OC sed ) concentration profiles, it can be shown that the observed variability reflects differences in the relative input and trapping of fine-grained sediment from seaward sources vs. landward sources linked to seasonal-scale changes in freshwater flow. During high flow conditions, the geochemical data indicate that most of the fine-grained sediments trapped in the estuary are newly eroded basin materials. During lower (base) flow conditions, a higher fraction of mature materials from seaward sources with higher carbonate content is trapped in the lower estuary. Results show that high-resolution, multi-geochemical tracer approaches utilizing strontium isotope ratios ( 87 Sr/ 86 Sr) can distinguish sediment sources and constrain seasonal scale variations in sediment trapping and accumulation in dynamic estuarine environments. Low-energy, subtidal areas such as those in this study are important sinks for metastable, short-to-medium time scale sediment accumulation. These results also show that these same areas can serve as natural recorders of physical, chemical, and biological processes that affect particle and particle-associated material dynamics over seasonal-to-yearly time scales. ?? 2009.

Chemical Geology↗

USGS2007

Preface

Energy is the essential commodity that powers the expanding global economy. Starting in the 1950s, oil and natural gas became the main sources of primary energy for the rapidly increasing world population ( Edwards, 1997 ). In 2003, petroleum was the source for 62.1% of global energy, and projections by energy information administration (EIA) indicate that oil and gas will continue their dominance, supplying 59.5% of global energy in 2030 ( EIA, 2007 ). Unfortunately petroleum and coal consumption carry major detrimental environmental impacts that may be regional or global in scale, including air pollution, global climate change and oil spills. This special volume of Applied Geochemistry, devoted to “Environmental Issues Related to Oil and Gas Exploration and Production”, does not address these major impacts directly because air pollution and global climate change are issues related primarily to the burning of petroleum and coal, and major oil spills generally occur during ocean transport, such as the Exxon Valdez 1989 spill of 42,000 m 3 (260,000 bbl) oil into Prince William Sound, Alaska.

Applied Geochemistry↗

USGS1975

Mineral resource management of the Outer Continental Shelf : leasing procedures, evaluation of resources, and supervision of production operations on leased lands of the Outer Continental Shelf

An important function of the Geological Survey is the evaluation and management of the mineral resources of the Outer Continental Shelf, particularly with respect to oil and gas, salt, and sulfur. Production of oil and gas from the Outer Continental Shelf of the United States has increased substantially over the past 20 years and represents an increasing percentage of total United States production. As discovery of major onshore production of oil and gas has become more difficult, the search has moved into the surrounding waters where submerged sedimentary formations are conducive to the accumulation of oil and gas. Increased energy demands of recent years have accelerated the pace of offshore operations with a corresponding improvement in technology as exploration and development have proceeded farther from shore and into deeper water. While improved technology and enforcement of more stringent regulations have made offshore operations safer, it is unrealistic to believe that completely accident-free operations can ever be achieved. Only slightly more than six percent of the world's continental terrace is adjacent to the United States, but less than one percent has been explored for oil and gas. Since the lead time for the development of offshore oil and gas resources can be as much as a decade, they do not provide an immediate energy supply but should be viewed in the light of a near-term source with a potential of becoming a medium-range source of supply pending the development of alternative energy sources. Revenues from the Outer Continental Shelf are deposited to the general fund of the United States Treasury. A major portion of these funds is allocated to the Land and Water Conservation Fund, the largest Federal grant-in-aid program of assistance to States, counties, and cities for the acquisition and development of public parks, open space, and recreation lands and water.

Circular↗

USGS2015

Shifts in the eruptive styles at Stromboli in 2010–2014 revealed by ground-based InSAR data

Ground-Based Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (GBInSAR) is an efficient technique for capturing short, subtle episodes of conduit pressurization in open vent volcanoes like Stromboli (Italy), because it can detect very shallow magma storage, which is difficult to identify using other methods. This technique allows the user to choose the optimal radar location for measuring the most significant deformation signal, provides an exceptional geometrical resolution, and allows for continuous monitoring of the deformation. Here, we present and model ground displacements collected at Stromboli by GBInSAR from January 2010 to August 2014. During this period, the volcano experienced several episodes of intense volcanic activity, culminated in the effusive flank eruption of August 2014. Modelling of the deformation allowed us to estimate a source depth of 482 ± 46 m a.s.l. The cumulative volume change was 4.7 ± 2.6 × 105 m3. The strain energy of the source was evaluated 3–5 times higher than the surface energy needed to open the 6–7 August eruptive fissure. The analysis proposed here can help forecast shifts in the eruptive style and especially the onset of flank eruptions at Stromboli and at similar volcanic systems (e.g. Etna, Piton de La Fournaise, Kilauea).

Stromboli↗

USGS2003

Strong ground-motion prediction from Stochastic-dynamic source models

In the absence of sufficient data in the very near source, predictions of the intensity and variability of ground motions from future large earthquakes depend strongly on our ability to develop realistic models of the earthquake source. In this article we simulate near-fault strong ground motion using dynamic source models. We use a boundary integral method to simulate dynamic rupture of earthquakes by specifying dynamic source parameters (fracture energy and stress drop) as spatial random fields. We choose these quantities such that they are consistent with the statistical properties of slip heterogeneity found in finite-source models of past earthquakes. From these rupture models we compute theoretical strong-motion seismograms up to a frequency of 2 Hz for several realizations of a scenario strike-slip Mw 7.0 earthquake and compare empirical response spectra, spectra obtained from our dynamic models, and spectra determined from corresponding kinematic simulations. We find that spatial and temporal variations in slip, slip rise time, and rupture propagation consistent with dynamic rupture models exert a strong influence on near-source ground motion. Our results lead to a feasible approach to specify the variability in the rupture time distribution in kinematic models through a generalization of Andrews' (1976) result relating rupture speed to apparent fracture energy, stress drop, and crack length to 3D dynamic models. This suggests that a simplified representation of dynamic rupture may be obtained to approximate the effects of dynamic rupture without having to do full dynamic simulations.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2015

Linking state-and-transition simulation and timber supply models for forest biomass production scenarios

We linked state-and-transition simulation models (STSMs) with an economics-based timber supply model to examine landscape dynamics in North Carolina through 2050 for three scenarios of forest biomass production. Forest biomass could be an important source of renewable energy in the future, but there is currently much uncertainty about how biomass production would impact landscapes. In the southeastern US, if forests become important sources of biomass for bioenergy, we expect increased land-use change and forest management. STSMs are ideal for simulating these landscape changes, but the amounts of change will depend on drivers such as timber prices and demand for forest land, which are best captured with forest economic models. We first developed state-and-transition model pathways in the ST-Sim software platform for 49 vegetation and land-use types that incorporated each expected type of landscape change. Next, for the three biomass production scenarios, the SubRegional Timber Supply Model (SRTS) was used to determine the annual areas of thinning and harvest in five broad forest types, as well as annual areas converted among those forest types, agricultural, and urban lands. The SRTS output was used to define area targets for STSMs in ST-Sim under two scenarios of biomass production and one baseline, business-as-usual scenario. We show that ST-Sim output matched SRTS targets in most cases. Landscape dynamics results indicate that, compared with the baseline scenario, forest biomass production leads to more forest and, specifically, more intensively managed forest on the landscape by 2050. Thus, the STSMs, informed by forest economics models, provide important information about potential landscape effects of bioenergy production.

AIMS Environmental Science↗