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At least 199 records · Page 11Linked to original sources

SAHM:VisTrails (Software for Assisted Habitat Modeling for VisTrails): training course

VisTrails is an open-source management and scientific workflow system designed to integrate the best of both scientific workflow and scientific visualization systems. Developers can extend the functionality of the VisTrails system by creating custom modules for bundled VisTrails packages. The Invasive Species Science Branch of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Fort Collins Science Center (FORT) and the U.S. Department of the Interior’s North Central Climate Science Center have teamed up to develop and implement such a module—the Software for Assisted Habitat Modeling (SAHM). SAHM expedites habitat modeling and helps maintain a record of the various input data, the steps before and after processing, and the modeling options incorporated in the construction of an ecological response model. There are four main advantages to using the SAHM:VisTrails combined package for species distribution modeling: (1) formalization and tractable recording of the entire modeling process; (2) easier collaboration through a common modeling framework; (3) a user-friendly graphical interface to manage file input, model runs, and output; and (4) extensibility to incorporate future and additional modeling routines and tools. In order to meet increased interest in the SAHM:VisTrails package, the FORT offers a training course twice a year. The course includes a combination of lecture, hands-on work, and discussion. Please join us and other ecological modelers to learn the capabilities of the SAHM:VisTrails package.

Fact Sheet↗

Trait contributions to fish community assembly emerge from trophicinteractions in an individual-based model

Community ecology seeks to understand and predict the characteristics of communities that can develop under different environmental conditions, but most theory has been built on analytical models that are limited in the diversity of species traits that can be considered simultaneously. We address that limitation with an individual-based model to simulate assembly of fish communities characterized by life history and trophic interactions with multiple physiological tradeoffs as constraints on species performance. Simulation experiments were carried out to evaluate the distribution of 6 life history and 4 feeding traits along gradients of resource productivity and prey accessibility. These experiments revealed that traits differ greatly in importance for species sorting along the gradients. Body growth rate emerged as a key factor distinguishing community types and defining patterns of community stability and coexistence, followed by egg size and maximum body size. Dominance by fast-growing, relatively large, and fecund species occurred more frequently in cases where functional responses were saturated (i.e. high productivity and/or prey accessibility). Such dominance was associated with large biomass fluctuations and priority effects, which prevented richness from increasing with productivity and may have limited selection on secondary traits, such as spawning strategies and relative size at maturation. Our results illustrate that the distribution of species traits and the consequences for community dynamics are intimately linked and strictly dependent on how the benefits and costs of these traits are balanced across different conditions.

Ecological Modelling↗

An overview of agent-based models in plant biology and ecology

Agent-based modeling (ABM) has become an established methodology in many areas of biology, ranging from the cellular to the ecological population and community levels. In plant science, two different scales have predominated in their use of ABM. One is the scale of populations and communities, through the modeling of collections of agents representing individual plants, interacting with each other and with the environment. The other is the scale of the individual plant, through the modeling, by functional-structural plant models (FSPMs), of agents representing plant building blocks, or metamers, to describe the development of plant architecture and functions within individual plants. The purpose of this review is to show key results and parallels in ABM for growth, mortality, carbon allocation, competition, and reproduction across the scales from the plant organ to populations and communities on a range of spatial scale to the whole landscape. Several areas of application of ABMs are reviewed, showing that some issues are addressed by both population-level ABMs and FSPMs. Continued increase in the relevance of ABM to environmental science and management will be helped by greater integration of ABMs across these two scales.

Annals of Botany↗

Techniques to improve ecological interpretability of black box machine learning models

Statistical modeling of ecological data is often faced with a large number of variables as well as possible nonlinear relationships and higher-order interaction effects. Gradient boosted trees (GBT) have been successful in addressing these issues and have shown a good predictive performance in modeling nonlinear relationships, in particular in classification settings with a categorical response variable. They also tend to be robust against outliers. However, their black-box nature makes it difficult to interpret these models. We introduce several recently developed statistical tools to the environmental research community in order to advance interpretation of these black-box models. To analyze the properties of the tools, we applied gradient boosted trees to investigate biological health of streams within the contiguous USA, as measured by a benthic macroinvertebrate biotic index. Based on these data and a simulation study, we demonstrate the advantages and limitations of partial dependence plots (PDP), individual conditional expectation (ICE) curves and accumulated local effects (ALE) in their ability to identify covariate–response relationships. Additionally, interaction effects were quantified according to interaction strength (IAS) and Friedman’s H 2 "> H 2 statistic. Interpretable machine learning techniques are useful tools to open the black-box of gradient boosted trees in the environmental sciences. This finding is supported by our case study on the effect of impervious surface on the benthic condition, which agrees with previous results in the literature. Overall, the most important variables were ecoregion, bed stability, watershed area, riparian vegetation and catchment slope. These variables were also present in most identified interaction effects. In conclusion, graphical tools (PDP, ICE, ALE) enable visualization and easier interpretation of GBT but should be supported by analytical statistical measures. Future methodological research is needed to investigate the properties of interaction tests. Supplementary materials accompanying this paper appear on-line.

Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environme↗

Using structural equation modeling to investigate relationships among ecological variables

Structural equation modeling is an advanced multivariate statistical process with which a researcher can construct theoretical concepts, test their measurement reliability, hypothesize and test a theory about their relationships, take into account measurement errors, and consider both direct and indirect effects of variables on one another. Latent variables are theoretical concepts that unite phenomena under a single term, e.g., ecosystem health, environmental condition, and pollution (Bollen, 1989). Latent variables are not measured directly but can be expressed in terms of one or more directly measurable variables called indicators. For some researchers, defining, constructing, and examining the validity of latent variables may be the end task of itself. For others, testing hypothesized relationships of latent variables may be of interest. We analyzed the correlation matrix of eleven environmental variables from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (USEPA) Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program for Estuaries (EMAP-E) using methods of structural equation modeling. We hypothesized and tested a conceptual model to characterize the interdependencies between four latent variables-sediment contamination, natural variability, biodiversity, and growth potential. In particular, we were interested in measuring the direct, indirect, and total effects of sediment contamination and natural variability on biodiversity and growth potential. The model fit the data well and accounted for 81% of the variability in biodiversity and 69% of the variability in growth potential. It revealed a positive total effect of natural variability on growth potential that otherwise would have been judged negative had we not considered indirect effects. That is, natural variability had a negative direct effect on growth potential of magnitude -0.3251 and a positive indirect effect mediated through biodiversity of magnitude 0.4509, yielding a net positive total effect of 0.1258. Natural variability had a positive direct effect on biodiversity of magnitude 0.5347 and a negative indirect effect mediated through growth potential of magnitude -0.1105 yielding a positive total effects of magnitude 0.4242. Sediment contamination had a negative direct effect on biodiversity of magnitude -0.1956 and a negative indirect effect on growth potential via biodiversity of magnitude -0.067. Biodiversity had a positive effect on growth potential of magnitude 0.8432, and growth potential had a positive effect on biodiversity of magnitude 0.3398. The correlation between biodiversity and growth potential was estimated at 0.7658 and that between sediment contamination and natural variability at -0.3769.

Environmental and Ecological Statistics↗

Incorporating food web dynamics into ecological restoration: A modeling approach for river ecosystems

Restoration is frequently aimed at the recovery of target species, but also influences the larger food web in which these species participate. Effects of restoration on this broader network of organisms can influence target species both directly and indirectly via changes in energy flow through food webs. To help incorporate these complexities into river restoration planning we constructed a model that links river food web dynamics to in-stream physical habitat and riparian vegetation conditions. We present an application of the model to the Methow River, Washington (USA), a location of on-going restoration aimed at recovering salmon. Three restoration strategies were simulated: riparian vegetation restoration, nutrient augmentation via salmon carcass addition, and side-channel reconnection. We also added populations of nonnative aquatic snails and fish to the modeled food web to explore how changes in food web structure mediate responses to restoration. Simulations suggest that side-channel reconnection may be a better strategy than carcass addition and vegetation planting for improving conditions for salmon in this river segment. However, modeled responses were strongly sensitive to changes in the structure of the food web. The addition of nonnative snails and fish modified pathways of energy through the food web, which negated restoration improvements. This finding illustrates that forecasting responses to restoration may require accounting for the structure of food webs, and that changes in this structure—as might be expected with the spread of invasive species—could compromise restoration outcomes. Unlike habitat-based approaches to restoration assessment that focus on the direct effects of physical habitat conditions on single species of interest, our approach dynamically links the success of target organisms to the success of competitors, predators, and prey. By elucidating the direct and indirect pathways by which restoration affects target species, dynamic food web models can improve restoration planning by fostering a deeper understanding of system connectedness and dynamics.

Washington↗

South Fork Shenandoah River habitat-flow modeling to determine ecological and recreational characteristics during low-flow periods

The ecological habitat requirements of aquatic organisms and recreational streamflow requirements of the South Fork Shenandoah River were investigated by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Central Shenandoah Valley Planning District Commission, the Northern Shenandoah Valley Regional Commission, and Virginia Commonwealth University. Physical habitat simulation modeling was conducted to examine flow as a major determinant of physical habitat availability and recreation suitability using field-collected hydraulic habitat variables such as water depth, water velocity, and substrate characteristics. Fish habitat-suitability criteria specific to the South Fork Shenandoah River were developed for sub-adult and adult smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu), juvenile and sub-adult redbreast sunfish (Lepomis auritus), spotfin or satinfin shiner (Cyprinella spp), margined madtom (Noturus insignis),and river chub (Nocomis micropogon). Historic streamflow statistics for the summer low-flow period during July, August, and September were used as benchmark low-flow conditions and compared to habitat simulation results and water-withdrawal scenarios based on 2005 withdrawal data. To examine habitat and recreation characteristics during droughts, daily fish habitat or recreation suitability values were simulated for 2002 and other selected drought years. Recreation suitability during droughts was extremely low, because the modeling demonstrated that suitable conditions occur when the streamflows are greater than the 50th percentile flow for July, August, and September. Habitat availability for fish is generally at a maximum when streamflows are between the 75th and 25th percentile flows for July, August, and September. Time-series results for drought years, such as 2002, showed that extreme low-flow conditions less than the 5th percentile of flow for July, August, and September corresponded to below-normal habitat availability for both game and nongame fish in the upper section of the river. For the middle section near Luray, margined madtom and river chub habitat area were below normal, whereas adult and sub-adult smallmouth bass habitat area remained near the median expected available habitat. In the lower section near Front Royal, time-series results for adult smallmouth bass, sub-adult smallmouth bass, and margined madtom habitat were below normal when streamflows were below the 10th percentile flow for July, August, and September. All other species of fish had habitat availability within the normal range for July, August, and September. Water-conservation scenarios representing a 50 percent water-withdrawal reduction resulted in game fish habitat availability within the normal range for habitat in upper and middle river sections, instead of below normal conditions which were observed during the 2002 drought. The 50 percent water-withdrawal reduction had no measurable effect on recreation. For nongame fish such as river chub, a 20 percent withdrawal reduction resulted in habitat availability within the normal range for habitat in the upper and middle river sections. Increased water-use scenarios representing a 5 percent increase in water withdrawals resulted in a slight reduction in habitat availability; however, increased withdrawals of 20 and 50 percent resulted in habitat availability substantially less than the 25th habitat percentile, or below normal. Habitat reductions were more pronounced when flows were lower than the 10th percentile flow for July, August, and September. The results show that for normal or wet years, increased water withdrawals are not likely to correspond with extensive habitat loss for game fish or nongame fish. During drought years, however, a 20 to 50 percent increase in water withdrawals may result in below normal habitat availability for game fish throughout the river and nongame fish in the upper and middle sections of the river. These simulations of rare historic drought conditions, such as those observed in 2002, serve as a baseline for development of ecological flow thresholds for drought planning.

Virginia;West Virginia↗

Accounting for missing ticks: Use (or lack thereof) of hierarchical models in tick ecology studies

Ixodid (hard) ticks play important ecosystem roles and have significant impacts on animal and human health via tick-borne diseases and physiological stress from parasitism. Tick occurrence, abundance, activity, and key life-history traits are highly influenced by host availability, weather, microclimate, and landscape features. As such, changes in the environment can have profound impacts on ticks, their hosts, and the spread of diseases. Researchers recognize that spatial and temporal factors influence activity and abundance and attempt to account for both by conducting replicate sampling bouts spread over the tick questing period. However, common field methods notoriously underestimate abundance, and it is unclear how (or if) tick studies model the confounding effects of factors influencing activity and abundance. This step is critical as unaccounted variance in detection can lead to biased estimates of occurrence and abundance. We performed a descriptive review to evaluate the extent to which studies account for the detection process while modeling tick data. We also categorized the types of analyses that are commonly used to model tick data. We used hierarchical models (HMs) that account for imperfect detection to analyze simulated and empirical tick data, demonstrating that inference is muddled when detection probability is not accounted for in the modeling process. Our review indicates that only 5 of 412 (1 %) papers explicitly accounted for imperfect detection while modeling ticks. By comparing HMs with the most common approaches used for modeling tick data (e.g., ANOVA), we show that population estimates are biased low for simulated and empirical data when using non-HMs, and that confounding occurs due to not explicitly modeling factors that influenced both detection and abundance. Our review and analysis of simulated and empirical data shows that it is important to account for our ability to detect ticks using field methods with imperfect detection. Not doing so leads to biased estimates of occurrence and abundance which could complicate our understanding of parasite-host relationships and the spread of tick-borne diseases. We highlight the resources available for learning HM approaches and applying them to analyzing tick data.

Maine↗

Coupling ecological and social network models to assess “transmission” and “contagion” of an aquatic invasive species

Network analysis is used to address diverse ecological, social, economic, and epidemiological questions, but few efforts have been made to combine these field-specific analyses into interdisciplinary approaches that effectively address how complex systems are interdependent and connected to one another. Identifying and understanding these cross-boundary connections improves natural resource management and promotes proactive, rather than reactive, decisions. This research had two main objectives; first, adapt the framework and approach of infectious disease network modeling so that it may be applied to the socio-ecological problem of spreading aquatic invasive species, and second, use this new coupled model to simulate the spread of the invasive Chinese mystery snail ( Bellamya chinensis ) in a reservoir network in Southeastern Nebraska, USA. The coupled model integrates an existing social network model of how anglers move on the landscape with new reservoir-specific ecological network models. This approach allowed us to identify 1) how angler movement among reservoirs aids in the spread of B . chinensis , 2) how B . chinensis alters energy flows within individual-reservoir food webs, and 3) a new method for assessing the spread of any number of non-native or invasive species within complex, social-ecological systems.

Journal of Environmental Management↗

Assessing ecological uncertainty and simulation model sensitivity to evaluate an invasive plant species’ potential impacts to the landscape

Ecological forecasts of the extent and impacts of invasive species can inform conservation management decisions. Such forecasts are hampered by ecological uncertainties associated with non-analog conditions resulting from the introduction of an invader to an ecosystem. We developed a state-and-transition simulation model tied to a fire behavior model to simulate the spread of buffelgrass ( Cenchrus ciliaris ) in Saguaro National Park, AZ, USA over a 30-year period. The simulation models forecast the potential extent and impact of a buffelgrass invasion including size and frequency of fire events and displacement of saguaro cacti and other native species. Using simulation models allowed us to evaluate how model uncertainties affected forecasted landscape outcomes. We compared scenarios covering a range of parameter uncertainties including model initialization (landscape susceptibility to invasion) and expert-identified ecological uncertainties (buffelgrass patch infill rates and precipitation). Our simulations showed substantial differences in the amount of buffelgrass on the landscape and the size and frequency of fires for dry years with slow patch infill scenarios compared to wet years with fast patch infill scenarios. We identified uncertainty in buffelgrass patch infill rates as a key area for research to improve forecasts. Our approach could be used to investigate novel processes in other invaded systems.

Scientific Reports↗

Troublesome toxins: Time to re-think plant-herbivore interactions in vertebrate ecology

Earlier models of plant-herbivore interactions relied on forms of functional response that related rates of ingestion by herbivores to mechanical or physical attributes such as bite size and rate. These models fail to predict a growing number of findings that implicate chemical toxins as important determinants of plant-herbivore dynamics. Specifically, considerable evidence suggests that toxins set upper limits on food intake for many species of herbivorous vertebrates. Herbivores feeding on toxin-containing plants must avoid saturating their detoxification systems, which often occurs before ingestion rates are limited by mechanical handling of food items. In light of the importance of plant toxins, a new approach is needed to link herbivores to their food base. We discuss necessary features of such an approach, note recent advances in herbivore functional response models that incorporate effects of plant toxins, and mention predictions that are consistent with observations in natural systems. Future ecological studies will need to address explicitly the importance of plant toxins in shaping plant and herbivore communities.

BMC Ecology↗

On valuing patches: Estimating contributions to metapopulation growth with reverse-time capture-recapture modelling

Metapopulation ecology has historically been rich in theory, yet analytical approaches for inferring demographic relationships among local populations have been few. We show how reverse-time multi-state capture–recapture models can be used to estimate the importance of local recruitment and interpopulation dispersal to metapopulation growth. We use ‘contribution metrics’ to infer demographic connectedness among eight local populations of banner-tailed kangaroo rats, to assess their demographic closure, and to investigate sources of variation in these contributions. Using a 7 year dataset, we show that: (i) local populations are relatively independent demographically, and contributions to local population growth via dispersal within the system decline with distance; (ii) growth contributions via local survival and recruitment are greater for adults than juveniles, while contributions involving dispersal are greater for juveniles; (iii) central populations rely more on local recruitment and survival than peripheral populations; (iv) contributions involving dispersal are not clearly related to overall metapopulation density; and (v) estimated contributions from outside the system are unexpectedly large. Our analytical framework can classify metapopulations on a continuum between demographic independence and panmixia, detect hidden population growth contributions, and make inference about other population linkage forms, including rescue effects and source–sink structures. Finally, we discuss differences between demographic and genetic population linkage patterns for our system.

Arizona↗

Spatial autoregressive models for statistical inference from ecological data

Ecological data often exhibit spatial pattern, which can be modeled as autocorrelation. Conditional autoregressive (CAR) and simultaneous autoregressive (SAR) models are network‐based models (also known as graphical models) specifically designed to model spatially autocorrelated data based on neighborhood relationships. We identify and discuss six different types of practical ecological inference using CAR and SAR models, including: (1) model selection, (2) spatial regression, (3) estimation of autocorrelation, (4) estimation of other connectivity parameters, (5) spatial prediction, and (6) spatial smoothing. We compare CAR and SAR models, showing their development and connection to partial correlations. Special cases, such as the intrinsic autoregressive model (IAR), are described. Conditional autoregressive and SAR models depend on weight matrices, whose practical development uses neighborhood definition and row‐standardization. Weight matrices can also include ecological covariates and connectivity structures, which we emphasize, but have been rarely used. Trends in harbor seals ( Phoca vitulina ) in southeastern Alaska from 463 polygons, some with missing data, are used to illustrate the six inference types. We develop a variety of weight matrices and CAR and SAR spatial regression models are fit using maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods. Profile likelihood graphs illustrate inference for covariance parameters. The same data set is used for both prediction and smoothing, and the relative merits of each are discussed. We show the nonstationary variances and correlations of a CAR model and demonstrate the effect of row‐standardization. We include several take‐home messages for CAR and SAR models, including (1) choosing between CAR and IAR models, (2) modeling ecological effects in the covariance matrix, (3) the appeal of spatial smoothing, and (4) how to handle isolated neighbors. We highlight several reasons why ecologists will want to make use of autoregressive models, both directly and in hierarchical models, and not only in explicit spatial settings, but also for more general connectivity models.

Ecological Monographs↗

On the application of multilevel modeling in environmental and ecological studies

This paper illustrates the advantages of a multilevel/hierarchical approach for predictive modeling, including flexibility of model formulation, explicitly accounting for hierarchical structure in the data, and the ability to predict the outcome of new cases. As a generalization of the classical approach, the multilevel modeling approach explicitly models the hierarchical structure in the data by considering both the within- and between-group variances leading to a partial pooling of data across all levels in the hierarchy. The modeling framework provides means for incorporating variables at different spatiotemporal scales. The examples used in this paper illustrate the iterative process of model fitting and evaluation, a process that can lead to improved understanding of the system being studied.

Ecology↗

Characterizing and predicting species distributions across environments and scales: Argentine ant occurrences in the eye of the beholder

Aim: Species distribution models (SDMs) or, more specifically, ecological niche models (ENMs) are a useful and rapidly proliferating tool in ecology and global change biology. ENMs attempt to capture associations between a species and its environment and are often used to draw biological inferences, to predict potential occurrences in unoccupied regions and to forecast future distributions under environmental change. The accuracy of ENMs, however, hinges critically on the quality of occurrence data. ENMs often use haphazardly collected data rather than data collected across the full spectrum of existing environmental conditions. Moreover, it remains unclear how processes affecting ENM predictions operate at different spatial scales. The scale (i.e. grain size) of analysis may be dictated more by the sampling regime than by biologically meaningful processes. The aim of our study is to jointly quantify how issues relating to region and scale affect ENM predictions using an economically important and ecologically damaging invasive species, the Argentine ant (Linepithema humile). Location: California, USA. Methods: We analysed the relationship between sampling sufficiency, regional differences in environmental parameter space and cell size of analysis and resampling environmental layers using two independently collected sets of presence/absence data. Differences in variable importance were determined using model averaging and logistic regression. Model accuracy was measured with area under the curve (AUC) and Cohen's kappa. Results: We first demonstrate that insufficient sampling of environmental parameter space can cause large errors in predicted distributions and biological interpretation. Models performed best when they were parametrized with data that sufficiently sampled environmental parameter space. Second, we show that altering the spatial grain of analysis changes the relative importance of different environmental variables. These changes apparently result from how environmental constraints and the sampling distributions of environmental variables change with spatial grain. Conclusions: These findings have clear relevance for biological inference. Taken together, our results illustrate potentially general limitations for ENMs, especially when such models are used to predict species occurrences in novel environments. We offer basic methodological and conceptual guidelines for appropriate sampling and scale matching. ?? 2009 The Authors Journal compilation ?? 2009 Blackwell Publishing.

Global Ecology and Biogeography↗

Adaptations in a hierarchical food web of southeastern Lake Michigan

Two issues in ecological network theory are: (1) how to construct an ecological network model and (2) how do entire networks (as opposed to individual species) adapt to changing conditions? We present a novel method for constructing an ecological network model for the food web of southeastern Lake Michigan (USA) and we identify changes in key system properties that are large relative to their uncertainty as this ecological network adapts from one time point to a second time point in response to multiple perturbations. To construct our food web for southeastern Lake Michigan, we followed the list of seven recommendations outlined in Cohen et al. [Cohen, J.E., et al., 1993. Improving food webs. Ecology 74, 252–258] for improving food webs. We explored two inter-related extensions of hierarchical system theory with our food web; the first one was that subsystems react to perturbations independently in the short-term and the second one was that a system's properties change at a slower rate than its subsystems’ properties. We used Shannon's equations to provide quantitative versions of the basic food web properties: number of prey, number of predators, number of feeding links, and connectance (or density). We then compared these properties between the two time-periods by developing distributions of each property for each time period that took uncertainty about the property into account. We compared these distributions, and concluded that non-overlapping distributions indicated changes in these properties that were large relative to their uncertainty. Two subsystems were identified within our food web system structure ( p < 0.001). One subsystem had more non-overlapping distributions in food web properties between Time 1 and Time 2 than the other subsystem. The overall system had all overlapping distributions in food web properties between Time 1 and Time 2. These results supported both extensions of hierarchical systems theory. Interestingly, the subsystem with more non-overlapping distributions in food web properties was the subsystem that contained primarily benthic taxa, contrary to expectations that the identified major perturbations (lower phosphorous inputs and invasive species) would more greatly affect the subsystem containing primarily pelagic taxa. Future food-web research should employ rigorous statistical analysis and incorporate uncertainty in food web properties for a better understanding of how ecological networks adapt.

Lake Michigan↗

Markov decision processes in natural resources management: observability and uncertainty

The breadth and complexity of stochastic decision processes in natural resources presents a challenge to analysts who need to understand and use these approaches. The objective of this paper is to describe a class of decision processes that are germane to natural resources conservation and management, namely Markov decision processes, and to discuss applications and computing algorithms under different conditions of observability and uncertainty. A number of important similarities are developed in the framing and evaluation of different decision processes, which can be useful in their applications in natural resources management. The challenges attendant to partial observability are highlighted, and possible approaches for dealing with it are discussed.

Ecological Modelling↗