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USGS2006

CO2 jets formed by sublimation beneath translucent slab ice in Mars' seasonal south polar ice cap

The martian polar caps are among the most dynamic regions on Mars, growing substantially in winter as a significant fraction of the atmosphere freezes out in the form of CO2 ice. Unusual dark spots, fans and blotches form as the south-polar seasonal CO2 ice cap retreats during spring and summer. Small radial channel networks are often associated with the location of spots once the ice disappears. The spots have been proposed to be simply bare, defrosted ground; the formation of the channels has remained uncertain. Here we report infrared and visible observations that show that the spots and fans remain at CO2 ice temperatures well into summer, and must be granular materials that have been brought up to the surface of the ice, requiring a complex suite of processes to get them there. We propose that the seasonal ice cap forms an impermeable, translucent slab of CO2 ice that sublimates from the base, building up high-pressure gas beneath the slab. This gas levitates the ice, which eventually ruptures, producing high-velocity CO 2 vents that erupt sand-sized grains in jets to form the spots and erode the channels. These processes are unlike any observed on Earth.

Nature↗

USGS2019

Carbon dioxide mineralization feasibility in the United States

Geologic carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) storage is one of many methods for stabilizing the increasing concentration of CO 2 in the Earth’s atmosphere. The injection of CO 2 in deep subsurface sedimentary reservoirs is the most commonly discussed method; however, the potential for CO 2 leakage can create long-term stability concerns. This report discusses the feasibility of an alternative form of geologic CO 2 storage: CO 2 mineralization. In this method, CO 2 reacts with rocks and minerals to form solid and stable carbonate rocks. New pilot projects and laboratory-based kinetics experiments have revealed that this method, both in situ and ex situ, may be a viable option for storage. In situ storage targets in-place rocks at the surface or subsurface. Ex situ storage targets industrial byproducts at the surface like mine tailings. Environmental risks include induced seismicity for in situ methods if pressure is not managed properly, as well as potential water and land use effects. However, there are fewer long-term CO 2 -leakage concerns for mineralization methods compared to saline storage methods and therefore potentially lower long-term monitoring costs. The costs and benefits of CO 2 mineralization are compared to those of CO 2 storage in saline reservoirs using estimates of pressure-limited dynamic storage capacity. This report highlights the regional potential of areas in the United States for in situ and ex situ storage, as well as their proximity to potential sources of CO 2 . Especially suitable targets include asbestos or other ultramafic mine tailings, in situ ultramafic rocks on the East and West Coasts, the Columbia River basalts in the Pacific Northwest, the Midcontinent Rift basalts in the midcontinent, and the basaltic Hawaiian Islands.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2012

Rapid movement of frozen debris-lobes: implications for permafrost degradation and slope instability in the south-central Brooks Range, Alaska

We present the results of a reconnaissance investigation of unusual debris mass-movement features on permafrost slopes that pose a potential infrastructure hazard in the south-central Brooks Range, Alaska. For the purpose of this paper, we describe these features as frozen debris-lobes. We focus on the characterisation of frozen debris-lobes as indicators of various movement processes using ground-based surveys, remote sensing, field and laboratory measurements, and time-lapse observations of frozen debris-lobe systems along the Dalton Highway. Currently, some frozen debris-lobes exceed 100 m in width, 20 m in height and 1000 m in length. Our results indicate that frozen debris-lobes have responded to climate change by becoming increasingly active during the last decades, resulting in rapid downslope movement. Movement indicators observed in the field include toppling trees, slumps and scarps, detachment slides, striation marks on frozen sediment slabs, recently buried trees and other vegetation, mudflows, and large cracks in the lobe surface. The type and diversity of observed indicators suggest that the lobes likely consist of a frozen debris core, are subject to creep, and seasonally unfrozen surface sediment is transported in warm seasons by creep, slumping, viscous flow, blockfall and leaching of fines, and in cold seasons by creep and sliding of frozen sediment slabs. Ground-based measurements on one frozen debris-lobe over three years (2008–2010) revealed average movement rates of approximately 1 cm day −1 , which is substantially larger than rates measured in historic aerial photography from the 1950s to 1980s. We discuss how climate change may further influence frozen debris-lobe dynamics, potentially accelerating their movement. We highlight the potential direct hazard that one of the studied frozen debris-lobes may pose in the coming years and decades to the nearby Trans Alaska Pipeline System and the Dalton Highway, the main artery for transportation between Interior Alaska and the North Slope.

Alaska↗

USGS2015

Glaciological and marine geological controls on terminus dynamics of Hubbard Glacier, southeast Alaska

Hubbard Glacier, located in southeast Alaska, is the world's largest non-polar tidewater glacier. It has been steadily advancing since it was first mapped in 1895; occasionally, the advance creates an ice or sediment dam that blocks a tributary fjord (Russell Fiord). The sustained advance raises the probability of long-term closure in the near-future, which will strongly impact the ecosystem of Russell Fiord and the nearby community of Yakutat. Here, we examine a 43-year record of flow speeds and terminus position to understand the large-scale dynamics of Hubbard Glacier. Our long-term record shows that the rate of terminus advance has increased slightly since 1895, with the exception of a slowed advance between approximately 1972 and 1984. The short-lived closure events in 1986 and 2002 were not initiated by perturbations in ice velocity or environmental forcings, but were likely due to fluctuations in sedimentation patterns at the terminus. This study points to the significance of a coupled system where short-term velocity fluctuations and morainal shoal development control tidewater glacier terminus position.

Alaska↗

USGS2017

Dynamic rupture modeling of the M7.2 2010 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake: Comparison with a geodetic model

The 2010 M w 7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake is the largest event recorded in the broader Southern California-Baja California region in the last 18 years. Here we try to analyze primary features of this type of event by using dynamic rupture simulations based on a multifault interface and later compare our results with space geodetic models. Our results show that starting from homogeneous prestress conditions, slip heterogeneity can be achieved as a result of variable dip angle along strike and the modulation imposed by step over segments. We also considered effects from a topographic free surface and find that although this does not produce significant first-order effects for this earthquake, even a low topographic dome such as the Cucapah range can affect the rupture front pattern and fault slip rate. Finally, we inverted available interferometric synthetic aperture radar data, using the same geometry as the dynamic rupture model, and retrieved the space geodetic slip distribution that serves to constrain the dynamic rupture models. The one to one comparison of the final fault slip pattern generated with dynamic rupture models and the space geodetic inversion show good agreement. Our results lead us to the following conclusion: in a possible multifault rupture scenario, and if we have first-order geometry constraints, dynamic rupture models can be very efficient in predicting large-scale slip heterogeneities that are important for the correct assessment of seismic hazard and the magnitude of future events. Our work contributes to understanding the complex nature of multifault systems.

California↗

USGS2011

Coulomb 3.3 Graphic-rich deformation and stress-change software for earthquake, tectonic, and volcano research and teaching-user guide

Coulomb is intended both for publication-directed research and for college and graduate school classroom instruction. We believe that one learns best when one can see the most and can explore alternatives quickly. So the principal feature of Coulomb is ease of input, rapid interactive modification, and intuitive visualization of the results. The program has menus and check-items, and dialogue boxes to ease operation. The internal graphics are suitable for publication, and can be easily imported into Illustrator, GMT, Google Earth, or Flash for further enhancements. Coulomb is designed to let one calculate static displacements, strains, and stresses at any depth caused by fault slip, magmatic intrusion, or dike expansion/contraction. One can calculate static displacements (on a surface or at GPS stations), strains, and stresses caused by fault slip, magmatic intrusion, or dike expansion. Problems, such as how an earthquake promotes or inhibits failure on nearby faults, or how fault slip or dike expansion will compress a nearby magma chamber, are germane to Coulomb. Geologic deformation associated with strike-slip faults, normal faults, or fault-bend folds is also a useful application. Calculations are made in an elastic halfspace with uniform isotropic elastic properties following Okada (1992)-see list of key papers in section 1.9. There is substantial evidence to support the hypothesis that faults interact by the transfer of stress, both on the time scales of earthquake sequences and aftershocks and on longer time scales associated with the interevent time of the largest shocks that occur in a given region. There is also evidence that faults and magmatic systems interact as well, and that static stress changes influence intrusions and eruptions. Processes not included in Coulomb are also important, such as dynamic stresses, pore-fluid diffusion, and viscoelastic rebound. Further, elastic stiffness differences between basins and crustal layering modify the stresses in comparison to the elastic halfspace implemented in Coulomb. Nevertheless, we believe that a simple tool that permits exploration of a key component of earthquake interaction has great value for understanding and discovery. To download the software (a MATLAB application) and tutorial files, please go to http://www.coulombstress.org

Open-File Report↗

USGS1998

On the influence of biomass burning on the seasonal CO2 signal as observed at monitoring stations

We investigated the role of biomass burning in simulating the seasonal signal in both prognostic and diagnostic analyses. The prognostic analysis involved the High-Resolution Biosphere Model, a prognostic terrestrial biosphere model, and the coupled vegetation fire module, which together produce a prognostic data set of biomass burning. The diagnostic analysis involved the Simple Diagnostic Biosphere Model (SDBM) and the Hao and Liu [1994] diagnostic data set of biomass burning, which have been scaled to global 2 and 4 Pg C yr −1 , respectively. The monthly carbon exchange fields between the atmosphere and the biosphere with a spatial resolution of 0.5° × 0.5°, the seasonal atmosphere-ocean exchange fields, and the emissions from fossil fuels have been coupled to the three-dimensional atmospheric transport model TM2. We have chosen eight monitoring stations of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration network to compare the predicted seasonal atmospheric CO 2 signals with those deduced from atmosphere-biosphere carbon exchange fluxes without any contribution from biomass burning. The prognostic analysis and the diagnostic analysis with global burning emissions of 4 Pg C yr −1 agree with respect to the change in the amplitude of the seasonal CO 2 concentration introduced through biomass burning. We find that the seasonal CO 2 signal at stations in higher northern latitudes (north of 30°N) is marginally influenced by biomass burning. For stations in tropical regions an increase in the CO 2 amplitude of more than 1 ppmv (up to 50% with respect to the observed trough to peak amplitude) has been calculated. Biomass burning at stations farther south accounts for an increase in the CO 2 amplitude of up to 59% (0.6 ppmv). A change in the phase of the seasonal CO 2 signal at tropical and southern stations has been shown to be strongly influenced by the onset of biomass burning in southern tropical Africa and America. Comparing simulated and observed seasonal CO 2 signals, we find higher discrepancies at southern tropical stations if biomass burning emissions are included. This is caused by the additional increase in the amplitude in the prognostic analysis and a phase shift in a diagnostic analysis. In contrast, at the northern tropical stations biomass burning tends to improve the estimates of the seasonal CO 2 signal in the prognostic analysis because of strengthening of the amplitude. Since the SDBM predicts the seasonal CO 2 signal reasonably well for the northern hemisphere tropical stations, no general improvement of the fit occurs if biomass burning emissions are considered.

Global Biogeochemical Cycles↗

USGS2008

Magnetic monitoring of earth and space

For centuries, navigators of the world’s oceans have been familiar with an effect of Earth’s magnetic field: It imparts a directional preference to the needle of a compass. Although in some settings magnetic orientation remains important, the modern science of geomagnetismhas emerged from its romantic nautical origins and developed into a subject of great depth and diversity. The geomagnetic field is used to explore the dynamics of Earth’s interior and its surrounding space environment, and geomagnetic data are used for geophysical mapping, mineral exploration, risk mitigation, and other practical applications. A global distribution of ground-based magnetic observatories supports those pursuits by providing accurate records of the magnetic-field direction and intensity at fixed locations and over long periods of time. Magnetic observatories were first established in the early 19th century in response to the influence of Alexander von Humboldt and Carl Friedrich Gauss. Since then, magnetic measurement has advanced significantly, progressing from simple visual readings of magnetic survey instruments to include automatic photographic measurement and modern electronic acquisition. To satisfy the needs of the scientific community, observatories are being upgraded to collect data that meet ever more stringent standards, to achieve higher acquisition frequencies, and to disseminate data in real time. To appreciate why data from magnetic observatories can be used for so many purposes, one needs only to recall that the geomagnetic field is a continuum, connecting the different parts of Earth to each other and to nearby space. Beneath our feet and above our heads, electric currents generate magnetic fields that contribute to the totality of the geomagnetic field measured at an observatory on Earth’s surface. The many physical processes that operate in each geophysical domain give rise to a complicated field that exhibits a wide variety of time-dependent behavior. In this article I review the status of the global community of magnetic observatories, show how Earth and space can be monitored for purposes of scientific understanding and practical application, and highlight the role played by magnetic observatories in the history of geomagnetism research.

Physics Today↗

USGS2016

Simulation of climate change effects on streamflow, groundwater, and stream temperature using GSFLOW and SNTEMP in the Black Earth Creek Watershed, Wisconsin

A groundwater/surface-water model was constructed and calibrated for the Black Earth Creek watershed in south-central Wisconsin. The model was then run to simulate scenarios representing common societal concerns in the basin, focusing on maintaining a cold-water resource in an urbanizing fringe near its upper stream reaches and minimizing downstream flooding. Although groundwater and surface water are considered a single resource, many hydrologic models simplistically simulate feedback loops between the groundwater system and other hydrologic processes. These feedbacks include timing and rates of evapotranspiration, surface runoff, soil-zone flow, and interactions with the groundwater system; however, computer models can now routinely and iteratively couple the surface-water and groundwater systems—albeit with longer model run times. In this study, preliminary calibrations of uncoupled transient surface-water and steady-state groundwater models were used to form the starting point for final calibration of one transient computer simulation that iteratively couples groundwater and surface water. The computer code GSFLOW (Groundwater/Surface-water FLOW) was used to simulate the coupled hydrologic system; a surface-water model represented hydrologic processes in the atmosphere, at land surface, and within the soil zone, and a groundwater-flow model represented the unsaturated zone, saturated zone, and streams. The coupled GSFLOW model was run on a daily time step during water years 1985–2007. Early simulation times (1985–2000) were used for spin-up to make the simulation results less sensitive to initial conditions specified; the spin-up period was not included in the model calibration. Model calibration used observed heads, streamflows, solar radiation, and snowpack measurements from 2000 to 2007 for history matching. Calibration was performed by using the PEST parameter estimation software suite. Simulated streamflows from the calibrated GSFLOW model and other basin characteristics were used as input to the one-dimensional SNTEMP (Stream-Network TEMPerature) model. SNTEMP was used to simulate daily stream temperature in selected stream reaches in the watershed. The temperature model was calibrated to high-resolution stream temperature time-series data measured in 2005. The calibrated GSFLOW and SNTEMP models were then used to simulate effects of potential climate change for the years 2010 through 2100. An ensemble of climate models and emission scenarios was evaluated. Downscaled climate drivers for the simulation period showed increases in maximum and minimum air temperature. Scenarios of future precipitation, however, did not show a monotonic trend like temperature. Uncertainty in the climate drivers increased with time for both temperature and precipitation. Forecasts of potential climate change scenarios showed growing season length increasing by weeks, and both potential and actual evapotranspiration rates increasing appreciably, in response to increasing air temperature. Simulated actual evapotranspiration rates increased less than simulated potential evapotranspiration rates as a result of water limitation in the root zone during the summer high-evapotranspiration period. The hydrologic-system response to climate change was characterized by a reduction in the importance of the snowmelt pulse and an increase in the importance of fall and winter groundwater recharge. The less dynamic hydrologic regime is likely to result in drier soil conditions, with relatively less drying expected in groundwater-fed systems. Groundwater discharge in the current upper cold-water reaches of Black Earth Creek is expected to decrease; flooding in downstream reaches may appreciably increase. The magnitude of changes in forecasted flow and associated groundwater/surface-water interaction is dependent on the General Circulation Model and emission scenario chosen. Potential future changes in air temperature drivers were consistently upward regardless of General Circulation Model and emission scenario selected; thus, simulated stream temperatures are forecast to increase appreciably with future climate. However, the amount of temperature increase was variable. Such uncertainty is reflected in temperature model results, along with uncertainty in the groundwater/surface-water interaction itself. The estimated increase in annual average temperature ranged from approximately 3 to 6 degrees Celsius by 2100 in the upper reaches of Black Earth Creek and 2 to 4 degrees Celsius in reaches farther downstream. As with all forecasts that rely on projections of an unknowable future, the results are best considered to approximate potential outcomes of climate change given the underlying uncertainty.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2025

How did westward volcaniclastic deposits accumulate in the deep sea following the January 2022 eruption of Hunga Volcano ?

Most volcanic eruptions on Earth take place below the ocean surface and remain largely unobserved. Reconstruction of past submerged eruptions has thus primarily been based on the study of seafloor deposits. Rarely before the 15 January 2022 eruption of Hunga volcano (Kingdom of Tonga) have we been able to categorically link deep-sea deposits to a specific volcanic source. This eruption was the largest in the modern satellite era, producing a 58-km-tall plume, a 20-m high tsunami, and a pressure wave that propagated around the world. The eruption induced the fastest submarine density currents ever measured, which destroyed submarine telecommunication cables and traveled at least 85 km to the west to the neighboring Lau Basin. Here we report findings from a series of remotely operated vehicle dives conducted 4 months after the eruption along the Eastern Lau Spreading Center-Valu Fa Ridge. Hunga-sourced volcaniclastic deposits 7–150 cm in thickness were found at nine sites, and collected. Study of the internal structure, grain size, componentry, glass chemistry, and microfossil assemblages of the cores show that these deposits are the distal portions of at least two ∼100-km-runout submarine density currents. We identify distinct physical characteristics of entrained microfossils that demonstrate the dynamics and pathways of the density currents. Microfossil evidence suggests that even the distal parts of the currents were erosive, remobilizing microfossil-concentrated sediments across the Lau Basin. Remobilization by volcaniclastic submarine density currents may thus play a greater role in carbon transport into deep sea basins than previously thought.

Hunga volcano↗

USGS2021

Channel response to a dam‐removal sediment pulse captured at high‐temporal resolution using routine gage data

In this study, we captured how a river channel responds to a sediment pulse originating from a dam removal using multiple lines of evidence derived from streamflow gages along the Patapsco River, Maryland, USA. Gages captured characteristics of the sediment pulse, including travel times of its leading edge (~7.8 km yr −1 ) and peak (~2.6 km yr −1 ) and suggest both translation and increasing dispersion. The pulse also changed local hydraulics and energy conditions, increasing flow velocities and Froude number, due to bed fining, homogenization and/or slope adjustment. Immediately downstream of the dam, recovery to pre‐pulse conditions occurred within the year, but farther downstream recovery was slower, with the tail of the sediment pulse working through the lower river by the end of the study 7 years later. The patterns and timing of channel change associated with the sediment pulse were not driven by large flow or suspended sediment‐transporting events, with change mostly occurring during lower flows. This suggests pulse mobility was controlled by process‐factors largely independent of high flow. In contrast, persistent changes occurred to out‐of‐channel flooding dynamics. Stage associated with flooding increased during the arrival of the sediment pulse, 1 to 2 years after dam removal, suggesting persistent sediment deposition at the channel margins and nearby floodplain. This resulted in National Weather Service‐indicated flood stages being attained by 3–43% smaller discharges compared to earlier in the study period. This study captured a two‐signal response from the sediment pulse: (1) short‐ to medium‐term (weeks to months) translation and dispersion within the channel, resulting in aggradation and recovery of bed elevations and changing local hydraulics; and (2) dispersion and persistent longer‐term (years) effects of sediment deposition on overbank surfaces. This study further demonstrated the utility of US Geological Survey gage data to quantify geomorphic change, increase temporal resolution, and provide insights into trajectories of change over varying spatial and temporal scales.

Maryland↗

USGS2018

Evolving environmental and geometric controls on Columbia Glacier’s continued retreat

Geometry strongly controls the dynamic behavior of marine‐terminating (tidewater) glaciers, significantly influencing advance and retreat cycles independent of climate. Yet the recent, nearly ubiquitous retreat of tidewater glaciers suggests that changes in atmospheric and oceanic forcing may also drive dynamic change. To isolate the influence of geometry on tidewater glacier dynamics, we analyzed detailed observational time series from 2012 to 2016 for two tidewater glaciers with shared dynamic histories and environmental forcing: Columbia Glacier and its former tributary (Post Glacier) in southcentral Alaska. We find that although terminus retreat has driven decadal‐scale changes in dynamics of the Columbia‐Post system, environmental factors contribute to short‐term (i.e., seasonal) dynamic variability. In particular, analysis of force balance time series indicates that observed variations in speed result from seasonal changes to the subglacial hydrologic system and associated changes in basal drag. Variations in terminus position only drive noticeable speed change when the terminus retreats from regions of relatively high basal drag. In agreement with long‐term analyses of Columbia Glacier, we find that terminus geometry can perturb the timing of seasonal ice flow patterns. Specifically, our data support the idea that retreat of a glacier terminus into deeper water is accompanied by a shift in the primary control on frontal ablation. Although our analysis focuses on two Alaskan glaciers, our data suggest that changes in the relative importance of surface meltwater and buoyancy effects on submarine melting and/or calving may manifest as a shift in terminus change seasonality and offer a mechanism to identify frontal ablation controls.

Alaska↗

USGS2014

Eruptions at Lone Star geyser, Yellowstone National Park, USA: 2. Constraints on subsurface dynamics

We use seismic, tilt, lidar, thermal, and gravity data from 32 consecutive eruption cycles of Lone Star geyser in Yellowstone National Park to identify key subsurface processes throughout the geyser's eruption cycle. Previously, we described measurements and analyses associated with the geyser's erupting jet dynamics. Here we show that seismicity is dominated by hydrothermal tremor (~5–40 Hz) attributed to the nucleation and/or collapse of vapor bubbles. Water discharge during eruption preplay triggers high-amplitude tremor pulses from a back azimuth aligned with the geyser cone, but during the rest of the eruption cycle it is shifted to the east-northeast. Moreover, ~4 min period ground surface displacements recur every 26 ± 8 min and are uncorrelated with the eruption cycle. Based on these observations, we conclude that (1) the dynamical behavior of the geyser is controlled by the thermo-mechanical coupling between the geyser conduit and a laterally offset reservoir periodically filled with a highly compressible two-phase mixture, (2) liquid and steam slugs periodically ascend into the shallow crust near the geyser system inducing detectable deformation, (3) eruptions occur when the pressure decrease associated with overflow from geyser conduit during preplay triggers an unstable feedback between vapor generation (cavitation) and mass discharge, and (4) flow choking at a constriction in the conduit arrests the runaway process and increases the saturated vapor pressure in the reservoir by a factor of ~10 during eruptions.

Wyoming↗

USGS2011

Flow structures and sandbar dynamics in a canyon river during a controlled flood, Colorado River, Arizona

In canyon rivers, debris fan constrictions create rapids and downstream pools characterized by secondary flow structures that are closely linked to channel morphology. In this paper we describe detailed measurements of the three‐dimensional flow structure and sandbar dynamics of two pools along the Colorado River in the Grand Canyon during a controlled flood release from Glen Canyon Dam. Results indicate that the pools are characterized by large lateral recirculation zones (eddies) resulting from flow separation downstream from the channel constrictions, as well as helical flow structures in the main channel and eddy. The lateral recirculation zones are low‐velocity areas conducive to fine sediment deposition, particularly in the vicinity of the separation and reattachment points and are thus the dominant flow structures controlling sandbar dynamics. The helical flow structures also affect morphology but appear secondary in importance to the lateral eddies. During the controlled flood, sandbars in the separation and reattachment zones at both sites tended to build gradually during the rising limb and peak flow. Deposition in shallow water on the sandbars was accompanied by erosion in deeper water along the sandbar slope at the interface with the main channel. Erosion occurred via rapid mass failures as well as by gradual boundary shear stress driven processes. The flow structures and morphologic links at our study sites are similar to those identified in other river environments, in particular sharply curved meanders and channel confluences where the coexistence of lateral recirculation and helical flows has been documented.

Journal of Geophysical Research F: Earth Surface↗

USGS2020

Twelve-year dynamics and rainfall thresholds for alternating creep and rapid movement of the Hooskanaden landslide from integrating InSAR, pixel offset tracking, and borehole and hydrological measurements

The Hooskanaden landslide is a large (~600 m wide × 1,300 m long), deep (~30 – 45 m) slide located in southwestern Oregon. Since 1958, it has had five moderate/major movements that catastrophically damaged the intersecting U.S. Highway 101, along with persistent slow wet‐season movements and a long‐term accelerating trend due to coastal erosion. Multiple remote sensing approaches, borehole measurements, and hydrological observations have been integrated to interpret the motion behaviors of the slide. Pixel offset tracking of both Sentinel‐1 and Sentinel‐2 images was carried out to reconstruct the 3‐D displacement field of the 2019 major event, and the results agree well with field measurements. A 12‐year displacement history of the landslide from 2007 to 2019 has been retrieved by incorporating offsets from Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) digital elevation model (DEM) gradients and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) processing of ALOS and Sentinel‐1 images. Comparisons with daily/hourly ground precipitation reveal that the motion dynamics are predominantly controlled by intensity and temporal pattern of rainfall. A new empirical threefold rainfall threshold was therefore proposed to forecast the dates for the moderate/major movements. This threshold relies upon antecedent water‐year and previous 3‐day and daily precipitation and was able to represent observed movement periods well. Adaptation of our threshold methodology could prove useful for other large, deep landslides for which temporal forecasting has long been generally intractable. The averaged characteristic hydraulic conductivity and diffusivity were estimated as 6.6 × 10 −6 m/s and 6.6 × 10 −4 m 2 /s, respectively, based on the time lags between rainfall pulses and slide accelerations. Hydrologic modeling using these parameters helps to explain the ability of the new rainfall threshold.

Oregon↗

USGS2015

The Palos Verdes Fault offshore southern California: late Pleistocene to present tectonic geomorphology, seascape evolution and slip rate estimate based on AUV and ROV surveys

The Palos Verdes Fault (PVF) is one of few active faults in Southern California that crosses the shoreline and can be studied using both terrestrial and subaqueous methodologies. To characterize the near-seafloor fault morphology, tectonic influences on continental slope sedimentary processes and late Pleistocene to present slip rate, a grid of high-resolution multibeam bathymetric data, and chirp subbottom profiles were acquired with an autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) along the main trace of PVF in water depths between 250 and 600 m. Radiocarbon dates were obtained from vibracores collected using a remotely operated vehicle (ROV) and ship-based gravity cores. The PVF is expressed as a well-defined seafloor lineation marked by subtle along-strike bends. Right-stepping transtensional bends exert first-order control on sediment flow dynamics and the spatial distribution of Holocene depocenters; deformed strata within a small pull-apart basin record punctuated growth faulting associated with at least three Holocene surface ruptures. An upper (shallower) landslide scarp, a buried sedimentary mound, and a deeper scarp have been right-laterally offset across the PVF by 55 ± 5, 52 ± 4 , and 39 ± 8 m, respectively. The ages of the upper scarp and buried mound are approximately 31 ka; the age of the deeper scarp is bracketed to 17–24 ka. These three piercing points bracket the late Pleistocene to present slip rate to 1.3–2.8 mm/yr and provide a best estimate of 1.6–1.9 mm/yr. The deformation observed along the PVF is characteristic of strike-slip faulting and accounts for 20–30% of the total right-lateral slip budget accommodated offshore Southern California.

California↗

USGS2025

Three-dimensional seismic velocity models for the San Francisco Bay region, California from joint body-wave and surface-wave tomography validated by waveform simulation

A high-resolution seismic velocity model for both P and S waves is essential for the San Francisco Bay (SFB) region to accurately simulate earthquake ground motions and assess seismic hazards in this high-risk region. We present new three-dimensional P-wave and S-wave velocity (Vp and Vs) models of the SFB region developed using joint tomographic inversion with a rich set of earthquake and active-source body-wave data and ambient-noise surface-wave data. We designed a dynamic balance strategy to effectively balance the contributions of body-wave and surface-wave data during each iteration of the inversion. Owing to the complementary resolution of body-wave and surface-wave data, our new models are significantly improved compared to previous tomographic models. Major geologic features in the SFB region, including low-velocity basins, high-velocity Franciscan Complex, granite, and gabbro rocks, and across-fault velocity contrasts, are imaged in our Vp and Vs models. Compared to the geology-based U.S. Geological Survey velocity model, our new model has better defined structures for some important areas that are of great concern for seismic hazard assessment, such as the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, and the 2014 magnitude 6.0 South Napa earthquake area. We validated our model by simulating waveforms for a set of moderate-magnitude earthquakes. The good performance of our model in waveform simulation indicates its potential for improving ground motion simulation and seismic hazard assessment in the SFB region.

California↗

USGS2016

An empirical approach for estimating stress-coupling lengths for marine-terminating glaciers

Variability in the dynamic behavior of marine-terminating glaciers is poorly understood, despite an increase in the abundance and resolution of observations. When paired with ice thicknesses, surface velocities can be used to quantify the dynamic redistribution of stresses in response to environmental perturbations through computation of the glacier force balance. However, because the force balance is not purely local, force balance calculations must be performed at the spatial scale over which stresses are transferred within glacier ice, or the stress-coupling length (SCL). Here we present a new empirical method to estimate the SCL for marine-terminating glaciers using high-resolution observations. We use the empirically-determined periodicity in resistive stress oscillations as a proxy for the SCL. Application of our empirical method to two well-studied tidewater glaciers (Helheim Glacier, SE Greenland, and Columbia Glacier, Alaska, USA) demonstrates that SCL estimates obtained using this approach are consistent with theory (i.e., can be parameterized as a function of the ice thickness) and with prior, independent SCL estimates. In order to accurately resolve stress variations, we suggest that similar empirical stress-coupling parameterizations be employed in future analyses of glacier dynamics.

Frontiers in Earth Science↗