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At least 199 records · Page 11Linked to original sources

Magnitude and frequency of floods for rural streams in Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina, 2017—Results

Reliable estimates of the magnitude and frequency of floods are an important part of the framework for hydraulic-structure design and flood-plain management in Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina. Annual peak flows measured at U.S. Geological Survey streamgages are used to compute flood‑frequency estimates at those streamgages. However, flood‑frequency estimates also are needed at ungaged stream locations. A process known as regionalization was used to develop regression equations to estimate the magnitude and frequency of floods at ungaged locations. A multistate approach was used to update estimates of the magnitude and frequency of floods in rural, ungaged basins in Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina. Annual peak-flow data through September 2017 were analyzed for 965 streamgages with 10 or more years of data on rural streams in Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and adjacent parts of Alabama, Florida, Tennessee, and Virginia. Flood‑frequency estimates of the 50‑, 20‑, 10‑, 4‑, 2‑, 1‑, 0.5‑, and 0.2‑percent annual exceedance probability streamflows, which correspond to flood-recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 200, and 500 years, respectively, were computed for the 965 streamgages following national guidelines. As part of the computation of flood‑frequency estimates for the streamgages, an updated value for the regional skew coefficient (0.048) was developed using a Bayesian generalized least squares regression model. The new regional skew has a mean square error or average variance of prediction of 0.092. Additionally, basin characteristics for these stations were computed using a geographical information system. Exploratory analyses on the 965 streamgages confirmed the five hydrologic regions for Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina defined in a previous rural flood‑frequency study. From the 965 streamgages, streamgages with 30 or more years of record were used to complete a peak-flow trend analysis. Of the 965 streamgages, 164 streamgages were found to be redundant and were excluded from the regional regression analyses. Data from the remaining 801 streamgages (292 in Georgia, 75 in South Carolina, 303 in North Carolina, 15 in Alabama, 12 in Florida, 39 in Tennessee, and 65 in Virginia) were used in a regional regression analysis relating basin characteristics to flood‑frequency estimates. This analysis, based on generalized least squares regression, was used to develop a set of predictive equations to estimate the 50‑, 20‑, 10‑, 4‑, 2‑, 1‑, 0.5‑, and 0.2‑percent annual exceedance probability streamflows for rural, ungaged basins in Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina. The final set of predictive equations are all functions of drainage area and percentage of the drainage basin within each of the five hydrologic regions. Average errors of prediction for these regression equations range from 35.8 to 44.4 percent. Flood‑frequency estimates also were computed for 72 regulated (for example, a streamgage where flow is altered by a dam or weir) streamgages in Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina with 20 or more years of post-regulation record using data through water year 2019. The water year is the annual period from October 1 through September 30 and is designated by the year in which the period ends. Of the 72 regulated streamgages, 18 had pre-regulated periods of record that also were analyzed as part of this study. Flow adjustments were applied to historic peaks and large floods from the pre-regulated period, if available, for use in the post-regulation frequency analysis. Estimates of large floods provide valuable information in frequency analysis and, thus, were included in the post-regulation frequency analysis.

Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina

PDEPTH—A computer program for the geophysical interpretation of magnetic and gravity profiles through Fourier filtering, source-depth analysis, and forward modeling

PDEPTH is an interactive, graphical computer program used to construct interpreted geological source models for observed potential-field geophysical profile data. The current version of PDEPTH has been adapted to the Windows platform from an earlier DOS-based version. The input total-field magnetic anomaly and vertical gravity anomaly profiles can be filtered to produce derivative products such as reduced-to-pole magnetic profiles, pseudogravity profiles, pseudomagnetic profiles, and upward-or-downward-continued profiles. A variety of source-location methods can be applied to the original and filtered profiles to estimate (and display on a cross section) the locations and physical properties of contacts, sheet edges, horizontal line sources, point sources, and interface surfaces. Two-and-a-half-dimensional source bodies having polygonal cross sections can be constructed using a mouse and keyboard. These bodies can then be adjusted until the calculated gravity and magnetic fields of the source bodies are close to the observed profiles. Auxiliary information such as the topographic surface, bathymetric surface, seismic basement, and geologic contact locations can be displayed on the cross section using optional input files. Test data files, used to demonstrate the source location methods in the report, and several utility programs are included.

Techniques and Methods

Water resources data for Kansas, water year 1972; Part 1, Surface water records

Surface-water records for the 1972 water year for Kansas, including records of streamflow or reservoir storage at gaging stations and partial-record stations, are given in this report. The locations of the stations are on figures 1 and 2. Records for a few pertinent gaging stations in bordering States also are included. These data represent that part of the National Water Data System collected by the U. S. Geological Survey and cooperating State and Federal agencies in Kansas. The records were collected and computed by the Water Resources Division of the U. S. Geological Survey under the direction of C. W. Lane, district chief. Kansas district personnel who contributed significantly to the collection and preparation of data included in this report were: J. L. Ebling, C. 0. Geiger, K. D. Medina, L. E. Stuliken, C. 0. Peek, J. D. Craig, L. L. Jones, A. T. Klamm, J. P. Marshall, C. W. Kennedy, W. J. Carswell, D. L. Lacock, G. G. Quy II, J. T. Religa, R. D. Thomas, S. V. Bond, S. T. Green, C. G. Sauer, A. B. Evans, A. F. Browning, M. J. Goetz, M. L. Penny, and M. Pabst. Through September 30, 1960, the records of discharge and stage of streams and canals and contents and stage of lakes or reservoirs were published in an annual series of U. S. Geological Survey water-supply papers entitled "Surface Water Supply of the United States." Beginning with the 1961 water year, surface-water records have been released by the Geological Survey in annual reports on a State-boundary basis. Distribution of these reports is limited; they are designed primarily for rapid release of data shortly after the end of the water year to meet local needs. The discharge and reservoir storage records for 1961-65 also have been published in a Geological Survey water-supply paper series entitled "Surface Water Supply of the United States 1961-65."

Kansas

Preliminary study of the water-temperature regime of the North Santiam River downstream from Detroit and Big Cliff dams, Oregon

A riverine-temperature model and associated data-collection system were developed to help the Corps of engineers determine cost benefits of selective-withdrawal structures for future use with dams on the Willamette River System. A U.S. Geological Survey Lagrangian reference frame, digital computer model was used to simulate stream temperatures on the North Santiam River downstream of the multipurpose Detroit dam and a reregulating dam (Big Cliff), from river mile 45.6 to 2.9. In simulation, only available air-temperature and windspeed information from a nearby National Weather Service station at Salem, Oregon were used. This preliminary investigation found that the model predicted mean daily temperatures to within 0.4 C standard deviation. Analysis of projected selective-withdrawal scenarios showed that the model has the sensitivity to indicate water-temperature changes 42.7 miles downstream on the North Santiam River. (USGS)

Water-Resources Investigations Report

Machine-readable files developed for the High Plains Regional Aquifer-System analysis in parts of Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, New Mexico, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Texas, and Wyoming

Machine-readable files were developed for the High Plains Regional Aquifer-System Analysis project are stored on two magnetic tapes available from the U.S. Geological Survey. The first tape contains computer programs that were used to prepare, store, retrieve, organize, and preserve the areal interpretive data collected by the project staff. The second tape contains 134 data files that can be divided into five general classes: (1) Aquifer geometry data, (2) aquifer and water characteristics , (3) water levels, (4) climatological data, and (5) land use and water use data. (Author 's abstract)

Water-Resources Investigations Report

Discovery and analysis of time delay sources in the USGS personal computer data collection platform (PCDCP) system

Intermagnet is an international oversight group which exists to establish a global network for geomagnetic observatories. This group establishes data standards and standard operating procedures for members and prospective members. Intermagnet has proposed a new One-Second Data Standard, for that emerging geomagnetic product. The standard specifies that all data collected must have a time stamp accuracy of ±10 milliseconds of the top-of-the-second Coordinated Universal Time. Therefore, the U.S. Geological Survey Geomagnetism Program has designed and executed several tests on its current data collection system, the Personal Computer Data Collection Platform. Tests are designed to measure the time shifts introduced by individual components within the data collection system, as well as to measure the time shift introduced by the entire Personal Computer Data Collection Platform. Additional testing designed for Intermagnet will be used to validate further such measurements. Current results of the measurements showed a 5.0–19.9 millisecond lag for the vertical channel (Z) of the Personal Computer Data Collection Platform and a 13.0–25.8 millisecond lag for horizontal channels (H and D) of the collection system. These measurements represent a dynamically changing delay introduced within the U.S. Geological Survey Personal Computer Data Collection Platform.

Scientific Investigations Report

Application of ERTS images and image processing to regional geologic problems and geologic mapping in northern Arizona

The purpose of this study was to apply the techniques of computer image processing to ERTS images as an aid to the solution of some regional geologic problems of significant interest. ERTS-1 images were applied to studies in the Shivwits Plateau, Coconino Plateau, and north-central Arizona regions. Unprocessed ERTS images revealed a wealth of new structural information and enabled a broad regional study to be made of the tectonic history of the southwestern Colorado Plateau. Spectral information from ERTS-1 was shown to be compatible with ground spectral reflectance measurements made with a portable field instrument developed during this investigation, provided that allowance was made for atmospheric effects. Computer image processing yielded lithologic boundary information within the Coconino Plateau region not obtainable from unprocessed images. Various enhancement techniques were compared in the three areas of study, and some simple rules were developed to guide the processing of images in unknown areas. A new hypothesis was developed for the history of the Colorado River. An ancestral and relatively old Upper Colorado Drainage followed approximately its present course as far as the western side of the Kaibab Uplift, where it diverged from the present course by following a strike valley trending north-northwest. This drainage was captured relatively recently by a much younger Lower Colorado Drainage, which developed by headward erosion after the opening of the Gulf of California. A byproduct of the regional studies in each of the three areas was the identification of areas favorable for the localization of shallow and deep ground waters. On the Shivwits Plateau water trapped in the axis of the old strike valley underlying the Shivwits lavas is a potential source. On the Coconino Plateau sandstone lenses, underlain by clays, within the otherwise permeable Kaibab Limestone are potential perched aquifers. These can be identified on computer-enhanced images. Lineaments detected first on ERTS-1 frames and later verified on aerial photographs were used south of Flagstaff, Arizona, to identify maximum fracturing along the Oak Creek fault in the Woody Mountain well field; a site for a new deep well has been selected and is being drilled by the city of Flagstaff.

Arizona

Databases, data integration, and expert systems: new directions in mineral resource assessment and mineral exploration

Overcoming future difficulties in searching for ore deposits deeper in the earth's crust will require closer attention to the collection and analysis of more diverse types of data and to more efficient use of current computer technologies. Computer technologies of greatest interest include methods of storage and retrieval of resource information, methods for integrating geologic, geochemical, and geophysical data, and the introduction of advanced computer technologies such as expert systems, multivariate techniques, and neural networks. Much experience has been gained in the past few years in applying these technologies. More experience is needed if they are to be implemented for everyday use in future assessments and exploration.

Book

Coastal Salinity Index along the southeastern Atlantic coast and the Gulf of Mexico, 1983 to 2018

Coastal droughts have a different dynamic than upland droughts, which are typically characterized by agricultural, hydrologic, meteorological, and (or) socioeconomic effects. Drought uniquely affects coastal ecosystems because of changes in the salinity conditions of estuarine creeks and rivers. The location of the freshwater-saltwater interface in surface-water bodies is an important factor in the ecological and socioeconomic dynamics of coastal communities. To address the data and information gap for characterizing coastal drought, the Coastal Salinity Index (CSI) was developed by using salinity data. The CSI uses a computational approach similar to the Standardized Precipitation Index. The CSI can be computed for unique time intervals (for example 1-, 6-, 12-, and 24-month intervals) to characterize short- and long-term drought (saline) conditions, as well as wet (high freshwater inflow) conditions. To encourage the use of the CSI in current and future research endeavors, this investigation addressed three activities to enhance the use and application of the CSI. First, a software package was developed for the consistent computation of the CSI that includes preprocessing of salinity data, filling missing data, computing the CSI, post-processing, and generating the supporting metadata. This software package is available for download from the U.S. Geological Survey GitLab repository. Second, the CSI has been computed at sites along the southeastern Atlantic coast (Florida to North Carolina) and the Gulf of Mexico (Texas to Florida) to increase the opportunity for linking the CSI to ecological response data. Third, using telemetered salinity data, the real-time computation of the CSI has been prototyped and disseminated on the web.

Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi,

Estimating groundwater level records using MOVE.1 and computing monthly percentiles from estimated groundwater records in Massachusetts

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection, performed record extensions on groundwater levels at select wells using the Maintenance of Variance Extension type 1 (MOVE.1) method. The groundwater levels estimated from these record extensions were used to compute monthly percentiles to improve future determinations of a groundwater index. In Massachusetts, 27 of 29 short-record study wells with continuous groundwater levels between 0.8 and 8.1 years were suitable for record extensions; 37 long-record index wells were used to extend the groundwater level records at the study wells. The index well selected to pair with a study well was chosen based on Pearson correlation coefficient values; cross-correlation between the two wells; geologic and topographic similarity; and smallest distance spanning the wells. Each study well and its corresponding index well have 1 or more years of concurrent, overlapping data; a Pearson correlation coefficient that exceeded a threshold value of 0.8; and a similar aquifer type and hydrologic characteristics. Of the 29 study wells, 2 showed poor correlations with all index wells and were not considered for record extensions. Performance metrics used to assess the accuracy of the MOVE.1 models indicated that most models provided reasonable estimates of groundwater levels. Root mean square error values ranged from 0.097 to 2.292 feet, with a median of 0.536 foot. Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient values ranged from 0.623 to 0.996, with a median value of 0.759. Generally, study wells in close geographical proximity to their index well resulted in stronger model performance. The average length of groundwater level records was extended by 14.1 years to a new average of 18.1 years. The estimated groundwater level records from the MOVE.1 models resulted in an increase in the range of highest and lowest groundwater levels at 23 of 27 wells. The increase in range of groundwater levels was between 0.08 to 7.95 feet. Monthly percentiles for State drought indices were computed from the estimated MOVE.1 records and observed records through December 31, 2021. Percentiles computed from estimated records show an average groundwater level about 1.0 foot lower than observed data at the 2d percentile and 0.1 foot lower at the 30th percentile.

Massachusetts

U.S. Geological Survey Groundwater Modeling Software: Making Sense of a Complex Natural Resource

Computer models of groundwater systems simulate the flow of groundwater, including water levels, and the transport of chemical constituents and thermal energy. Groundwater models afford hydrologists a framework on which to organize their knowledge and understanding of groundwater systems, and they provide insights water-resources managers need to plan effectively for future water demands. Building on decades of experience, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) continues to lead in the development and application of computer software that allows groundwater models to address scientific and management questions of increasing complexity.

Fact Sheet

Peak-flow frequency estimates based on data through water year 2001 for selected streamflow-gaging stations in South Dakota

Numerous users, including the South Dakota Department of Transportation, have continuing needs for peak-flow information for the design of highway infrastructure and many other purposes. This report documents results from a cooperative study between the South Dakota Department of Transportation and the U.S. Geological Survey to provide an update of peak-flow frequency estimates for South Dakota. Estimates of peak-flow magnitudes for 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, 200-, and 500-year recurrence intervals are reported for 272 streamflow-gaging stations, which include most gaging stations in South Dakota with 10 or more years of systematic peak-flow records through water year 2001. Recommended procedures described in Bulletin 17B were used as primary guidelines for developing peak-flow frequency estimates. The computer program PEAKFQ developed by the U.S. Geological Survey was used to run the frequency analyses. Flood frequencies for all stations were initially analyzed by using standard Bulletin 17B default procedures for fitting the log-Pearson III distribution. The resulting preliminary frequency curves were then plotted on a log-probability scale, and fits of the curves with systematic data were evaluated. In many cases, results of the default Bulletin 17B analyses were determined to be satisfactory. In other cases, however, the results could be improved by using various alternative procedures for frequency analysis. Alternative procedures for some stations included adjustments to skew coefficients or use of user-defined low-outlier criteria. Peak-flow records for many gaging stations are strongly influenced by low- or zero-flow values. This situation often results in a frequency curve that plots substantially above the systematic record data points at the upper end of the frequency curve. Adjustments to low-outlier criteria reduced the influence of very small peak flows and generally focused the analyses on the upper parts of the frequency curves (10- to 500-year recurrence intervals). The most common alternative procedures involved several different methods to extend systematic records, which was done primarily to address biases resulting from nonrepresentative climatic conditions during several specific periods of record and to reduce inconsistencies among multiple gaging stations along common stream channels with different periods of record. In some cases, records for proximal stations could be combined directly. In other cases, the two-station comparison procedure recommended in Bulletin 17B was used to adjust the mean and standard deviation of the logs of the systematic data for a target station on the basis of correlation with concurrent records from a nearby long-term index station. In some other cases, a 'mixed-station procedure' was used to adjust the log-distributional parameters for a target station, on the basis of correlation with one or more index stations, for the purpose of fitting the log-Pearson III distribution. Historical adjustment procedures were applied to peak-flow frequency analyses for 17 South Dakota gaging stations. A historical adjustment period extending back to 1881 (121 years) was used for 12 gaging stations in the James and Big Sioux River Basins, and various other adjustment periods were used for additional stations. Large peak flows that occurred in 1969 and 1997 accounted for 13 of the 17 historical adjustments. Other years for which historical peak flows were used include 1957, 1962, 1992, and 2001. A regional mixed-population analysis was developed to address complications associated with many high outliers for the Black Hills region. This analysis included definition of two populations of flood events. The population of flood events that composes the main body of peak flows for a given station is considered the 'ordinary-peaks population,' and the population of unusually large peak flows that plot substantially above the main body of peak flows on log-probability scale is co

South Dakota

Geohydrology and Possible Transport Routes of Polychlorinated Biphenyls in Haiku Valley, Oahu, Hawaii

A combination of geologic mapping, seepage runs, water-budget computation, analysis of stream-gaging records, study of stream sediment, and measurement of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) was used to investigate the geohydrology and possible routes of PCB transport from areas of possible contamination in the U.S. Coast Guard's Omega Station in Haiku Valley, Oahu, Hawaii. The PCBs were a contaminant in fuel that was sprayed on vegetation and ignited during defoliation efforts at the Omega Station. Haiku Valley is a stream valley eroded into a thick section of dike-intruded, highly permeable lava flows. The valley is partly filled with alluvium, pyroclastics and massive lava flows. A shallow aquifer system is formed by a permeable unit of pyroclastics which is bounded below by less permeable alluvium, massive lava flows, and weathered basalt. A deeper aquifer system is present in the dike-intruded lava flows. Much of the area of suspected PCB-contaminated fuel application in Haiku Valley is situated on the geologic unit that forms the shallow aquifer. A water budget calculated for the drainage area of a stream-gaging station (16275000) at the downgradient boundary of the Omega Station indicates that the shallow and deep aquifers receive recharge of 5.1 cubic feet per second from the 0.98 square-mile drainage area; approximately 10 percent of the drainage area is suspected to have been contaminated by PCBs. Approximately 4 cubic feet per second of water is withdrawn from the aquifers by a well and a water tunnel in the valley, but the geology of the area indicates that some of the water withdrawn by the tunnel also comes from recharge beyond the surface-water divides of Haiku Valley. Base flow to the stream is about 1.2 cubic feet per second. A water-balance calculation between recharge, well and tunnel withdrawals, and stream base flow, indicates that 1.0 cubic feet per second or more of the water recharging the drainage area may travel through the subsurface and discharge downstream beyond the limits of the Omega Station. Mass-balance calculations indicate that the concentration of PCBs that dissolves in the ground-water as it infiltrates contaminated areas will be on the order of 10-7 micrograms per liter, but these calculations are based on a number of assumptions where data are lacking. Analysis of sediment from Heeia Stream indicates that the sediment is transporting PCBs past station 16275000. Although PCB concentrations in unfiltered stream water samples collected at the station were below detection limits 0.1 micrograms per liter, PCB concentrations ranged from 64 to 230 micrograms per kilogram in suspended sediment extracted from stream water. Because most of the suspended sediment in Heeia Stream is deposited in a wetland near the coast, the potential for PCB accumulation is greatest in the wetland.

Water-Resources Investigations Report

Numerical simulation of solute transport in southwestern Salt Lake Valley, Utah

Contaminated ground water characterized by high concentrations of dissolved solids and dissolved sulfate, and in areas, by low pH and elevated concentrations of metals, is present near public-supply wells in the southwestern Salt Lake Valley. To provide State officials and water users with information concerning the potential movement of contaminated ground water to points of withdrawal in the area, an analysis of solute transport using computer models was done by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Utah Department of Natural Resources, Division of Water Rights, and local municipalities and water users. A three-dimensional solute-transport model was developed and couples with an existing ground-water flow model of Salt Lake Valley to simulate the movement of dissolved sulfate in ground water in southwestern Salt Lake Valley. Development and calibration of the transport model focused mainly on sulfate movement down-gradient from the Bingham Creek Reservoirs and the South Jordan evaporation ponds east of the mouth of Bingham Canyon. Estimates of transport parameters were adjusted during a calibration simulation representing conditions during 1965-93. After calibration, the transport model was used to simulate future sulfate movement for 1994-2043. Because of uncertainty in estimated transport-parameter values, three projection transport simulations incorporating a range of probable parameter values were done to evaluate future sulfate movement and changes in sulfate concentrations at selected public-supply wells. These projection simulations produced a possible range of computed transport rates and patterns. In general, the projection simulations indicated movement of the sulfate plume east of the Bingham Creek reservoir toward public-supply wells northeast of the reservoirs and then eastward toward the Jordan River. Ground water with high concentrations of sulfate east of the South Jordan evaporation ponds is simulated as moving west to east under the Jordan River towards public-supply wells during the final 25 years of the simulation period. An increase in sulfate concentration from 200 mg/l in 2006 to 4,100 mg/l in 2022 was the largest simulated increase at public-supply wells northeast of the reservoirs. An increase in sulfate concentration from 150 mg/l in 2024 to 340 mg/l in 2043 was the largest simulated increase at public-supply wells in the south-central Salt Lake Valley just east of the Jordan River.

Utah

Estimating flood magnitude and frequency on gaged and ungaged streams in Maine

Accurate estimates of flood frequency and magnitude on rivers and streams in Maine are a key component of effective flood risk management, flood mitigation, and flood recovery programs for the State. Flood-frequency estimates are published here for 148 streamgages in and adjacent to Maine. Equations are provided for users to compute flood-frequency estimates at any location on a stream that does not have a streamgage. Estimates and equations are presented for peak flows with annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs) of 50, 20, 10, 4, 2, 1, 0.5, and 0.2 percent. AEPs correspond to flood recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 200, and 500 years, respectively. New estimates use a regional skew coefficient of 0.02 with a standard error of prediction of 0.30 developed specifically for Maine as a part of this work. Equations are designed for use at ungaged sites without substantial flow regulation or urbanization in Maine, with drainage areas between 0.26 and 5,680 square miles. The equations were developed from streamflows and basin characteristics at 124 unregulated streamgages using generalized least-squares regression techniques. Explanatory variables used in the equations for computing peak flows are drainage area, percentage of area in the basin that contains wetlands, and basin mean 24-hour rainfall intensities. The average standard error of prediction (ASEP) for these equations ranges from −31.5 to 45.9 percent for the 50-percent AEP and from −34.2 to 52.0 percent for the 0.2-percent AEP. Equations that use only drainage area are provided for use in cases where lower accuracy is acceptable. The ASEP for estimating peak flows with these simpler equations ranges from −40 to 66 percent for the 50-percent AEP and from −44 to 79 percent for the 0.2-percent AEP. Final peak flows at unregulated streamgages are computed as weighted averages between the at-station peak flows and peak flows computed at those same sites using the regression equations. Peak flow estimates and equations presented here are accessible in the U.S. Geological Survey StreamStats application. StreamStats is a web application that computes selected basin characteristics and estimates of peak flows and other available streamflow statistics for user-selected streams in Maine.

Maine

MODFLOW 2000 Head Uncertainty, a First-Order Second Moment Method

A computationally efficient method to estimate the variance and covariance in piezometric head results computed through MODFLOW 2000 using a first-order second moment (FOSM) approach is presented. This methodology employs a first-order Taylor series expansion to combine model sensitivity with uncertainty in geologic data. MODFLOW 2000 is used to calculate both the ground water head and the sensitivity of head to changes in input data. From a limited number of samples, geologic data are extrapolated and their associated uncertainties are computed through a conditional probability calculation. Combining the spatially related sensitivity and input uncertainty produces the variance-covariance matrix, the diagonal of which is used to yield the standard deviation in MODFLOW 2000 head. The variance in piezometric head can be used for calibrating the model, estimating confidence intervals, directing exploration, and evaluating the reliability of a design. A case study illustrates the approach, where aquifer transmissivity is the spatially related uncertain geologic input data. The FOSM methodology is shown to be applicable for calculating output uncertainty for (1) spatially related input and output data, and (2) multiple input parameters (transmissivity and recharge).

Ground Water

Feasibility study of the use of the acoustic velocity meter for measurement of net outflow from the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta in California

A reliable measure of the fresh-water outflow from the Sacramento-San Joaquin delta is needed for the operation of the California Water Project and for the evaluation of the interrelated water problems of the delta and San Francisco Bay regions. The Chipps Island channel, immediately downstream from the confluence of the Sacramento and San Joaquin Rivers, is the most promising site for this flow measurement, but the conventional techniques used for evaluating steady flows cannot be employed there because the channel reach is in the tidal zone, and reversals of flow occur during each tidal cycle. Net outflows, which may be as little-as 2,000 cubic feet per second must necessarily be computed as the difference between the large ebbflow and floodflow volumes that move back and forth between the delta region and San Francisco Bay. Discharges during peak periods of the ebb and flood tidal cycles may exceed 300,000 cubic feet per second. In consequence, a very high degree of precision must be maintained in the gross flow measurements if meaningful computations of net outflow are to be made. This report evaluates the probable accuracies that might be achieved by use of an AVM (acoustic velocity meter), a device which measures the stream velocity along a diagonal line across the channel. The study indicates that this line velocity will provide a stable index of the mean velocity in the channel and that such an index could be used as a primary parameter for the computation of discharge. Therefore, net outflows probably could be computed with the required accuracy by the use of such a device. The significant factors controlling the precision of measurement would be the stability of the channel geometry and streamline orientation, the precision with which the current-meter measurements needed for calibration of the system could be made, the instrumental calibration stability of the AVM system, and the length of period over which net outflows were computed. The AVM system developed by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the California Department of Water Resources and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers does not have the required instrumental stability for this precise flow measurement. However, other AVM systems now being produced commercially seem to have the desired error characteristics, and a system probably can be procured that will permit computation of the fresh-water outflow from the delta area.

Water Supply Paper

Sediment yields of streams in the Umpqua River Basin, Oregon

This report summarizes sediment data collected at 11 sites in the Umpqua River basin from 1956 to 1973 and updates a report by C. A. Onions (1969) of estimated sediment yields in the basin from 1956-67. Onions' report points out that the suspended-sediment data, collected during the 1956-67 period, were insufficient to compute reliable sediment yields. Therefore, the U.S, Geological Survey, in cooperation with Douglas County, collected additional data from 1969 to 1973 to improve the water discharge-sediment discharge relationships at these sites. These data are published in "Water resources data for Oregon, Part 2, Water quality records," 1970 through 1973 water years. In addition to the 10 original sites, data were collected during this period from the Umpqua River near Elkton station, and a summary of the data for that station is included in table 1.

Oregon