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At least 199 records · Page 11Linked to original sources
USGS2015

Incorporating climate change projections into riparian restoration planning and design

Climate change and associated changes in streamflow may alter riparian habitats substantially in coming decades. Riparian restoration provides opportunities to respond proactively to projected climate change effects, increase riparian ecosystem resilience to climate change, and simultaneously address effects of both climate change and other human disturbances. However, climate change may alter which restoration methods are most effective and which restoration goals can be achieved. Incorporating climate change into riparian restoration planning and design is critical to long-term restoration of desired community composition and ecosystem services. In this review, we discuss and provide examples of how climate change might be incorporated into restoration planning at the key stages of assessing the project context, establishing restoration goals and design criteria, evaluating design alternatives, and monitoring restoration outcomes. Restoration planners have access to numerous tools to predict future climate, streamflow, and riparian ecology at restoration sites. Planners can use those predictions to assess which species or ecosystem services will be most vulnerable under future conditions, and which sites will be most suitable for restoration. To accommodate future climate and streamflow change, planners may need to adjust methods for planting, invasive species control, channel and floodplain reconstruction, and water management. Given the considerable uncertainty in future climate and streamflow projections, riparian ecological responses, and effects on restoration outcomes, planners will need to consider multiple potential future scenarios, implement a variety of restoration methods, design projects with flexibility to adjust to future conditions, and plan to respond adaptively to unexpected change.

Ecohydrology↗
USGS2014

The impact of climate change on coastal ecosystems

In this chapter we stress two important features of coasts and coastal ecosystems. First, these are dynamic systems which continually undergo adjustments, especially through erosion and re-deposition, in response to a range of processes. Many coastal ecosystems adjust naturally at a range of time scales and their potential for response is examined partly by reconstructing how such systems have coped with natural changes of climate and sea level in the geological past. Second, coasts have changed profoundly through the 20th Century due to the impacts of human development (such as urbanisation, port and industrial expansion, shore protection, and the draining and conversion of coastal wetlands), with these development-related drivers closely linked to a growing global population and economy. It remains a challenge to isolate the impacts of climate change and sea-level rise from either the natural trajectory of shoreline change, or the accelerated pathway resulting from other human-related stressors. There exists a danger of overstating the importance of climate change, or overlooking significant interactions of climate change with other drivers.

Book chapter↗
USGS2020

Climate change causes river network contraction and disconnection in the H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest, Oregon, USA

Headwater streams account for more than 89% of global river networks and provide numerous ecosystem services that benefit downstream ecosystems and human water uses. It has been established that changes in climate have shifted the timing and magnitude of observed precipitation, which, at specific gages, have been directly linked to long-term reductions in large river discharge. However, climate impacts on ungaged headwater streams, where ecosystem function is tightly coupled to flow permanence along the river corridor, remain unknown due to the lack of data sets and ability to model and predict flow permanence. We analyzed a network of 10 gages with 38–69 years of records across a 5th-order river basin in the U.S. Pacific Northwest, finding increasing frequency of lower low-flow conditions across the basin. Next, we simulated river network expansion and contraction for a 65-year period of record, revealing 24% and 9% declines in flowing and contiguous network length, respectively, during the driest months of the year. This study is the first to mechanistically simulate network expansion and contraction at the scale of a large river basin, informing if and how climate change is altering connectivity along river networks. While the heuristic model presented here yields basin-specific conclusions, this approach is generalizable and transferable to the study of other large river basins. Finally, we interpret our model results in the context of regulations based on flow permanence, demonstrating the complications of static regulatory definitions in the face of non-stationary climate.

Oregon↗
USGS2021

Toward climate change refugia conservation at an ecoregion scale

Climate change uncertainty poses serious challenges to conservation efforts. One emerging conservation strategy is to identify and conserve climate change refugia: areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change that enable persistence of valued resources. This management paradigm may be pursued at broad scales by leveraging existing resources and placing them into a tangible framework to stimulate further collaboration that fosters management decision-making. Here, we describe a framework for moving toward operationalizing climate change refugia conservation at an ecoregion scale with an analysis for the Sierra Nevada ecoregion (CA, USA). Structured within the Climate Change Refugia Conservation Cycle, we identify a preliminary suite of conservation priorities for the ecoregion, and demonstrate how existing mapping, data, and applications could be used for identifying, prioritizing, managing, and monitoring refugia. We focus on six stakeholder-identified conservation priorities, including two process-based refugial priorities (snow and fire), and four ecosystem-based refugial priorities (meadows, giant sequoia, old growth forests, and alpine communities). This pilot overview of concepts and resources provides a foundation for both near-term implementation and further discussion in moving from science to conservation practice. Such an approach may provide new practical insights for ecosystem management at ecoregion scales in the face of climate change.

California↗
USGS2007

Hydrologic effects of climate change in the Delaware River basin

The Thornthwaite water balance and combinations of temperature and precipitation changes representing climate change were used to estimate changes in seasonal soil-moisture and runoff in the Delaware River basin. Winter warming may cause a greater proportion of precipitation in the northern part of the basin to fall as rain, which may increase winter runoff and decrease spring and summer runoff. Estimates of total annual runoff indicate that a 5 percent increase in precipitation would be needed to counteract runoff decreases resulting from a warming of 2??C; a 15 percent increase for a warming of 4??C. A warming of 2?? to 4??C, without precipitation increases, may cause a 9 to 25 percent decrease in runoff. The general circulation model derived changes in annual runoff ranged from -39 to +9 percent. Results generally agree with those obtained in studies elsewhere. The changes in runoff agree in direction but differ in magnitude. Additional aspects of the subject are discussed.

Water Resources Bulletin↗
USGS2009

Biofuels, water resources and climate change: Solving the sustainability puzzle

Nebraska is now the second-largest producer of corn ethanol in the U.S. This is largely because of the state’s comparative advantages. For one, the state’s water resources enable a huge capacity for irrigation – Nebraska ranks second in irrigated crop acres, behind California. Nebraska is the third-largest corn producer in the U.S., with 75 percent of the crop irrigated. The state also produces nearly 5 million acres of soybeans, half of them irrigated. Both provide a large, dependable supply of feedstock for production of ethanol and other biofuels. Nebraska’s cattle feeding industry, with more than 4.5 million head on feed, utilizes ethanol byproducts such as distillers grains and enables biorefinery systems to attain high energy efficiency and profitability. This powerful nexus of agriculture, water and biofuels is highly vulnerable to changes in climate. The panelists represented a cross-section of these interests, including a manager of the state’s longest-operating ethanol plant, a farmer with extensive knowledge of ethanol production, the administrator of the state ethanol board and a project manager from a federal agency charged with tracking land use and its ties to biofuel production and climate change.

Nebraska↗
USGS2019

Incorporating climate change into invasive species management: Insights from managers

Invasive alien species are likely to interact with climate change, thus necessitating management that proactively addresses both global changes. However, invasive species managers’ concerns about the effects of climate change, the degree to which they incorporate climate change into their management, and what stops them from doing so remain unknown. Therefore, we surveyed natural resource managers addressing invasive species across the U.S. about their priorities, concerns, and management strategies in a changing climate. Of the 211 managers we surveyed, most were very concerned about the influence of climate change on invasive species management, but their organizations were significantly less so. Managers reported that lack of funding and personnel limited their ability to effectively manage invasive species, while lack of information limited their consideration of climate change in decision-making. Additionally, managers prioritized research that identifies range-shifting invasive species and native communities resilient to invasions and climate change. Managers also reported that this information would be most effectively communicated through conversations, research summaries, and meetings/symposia. Despite the need for more information, 65% of managers incorporate climate change into their invasive species management through strategic planning, preventative management, changing treatment and control, and increasing education and outreach. These results show the potential for incorporating climate change into management, but also highlight a clear and pressing need for more targeted research, accessible science communication, and two-way dialogue between researchers and managers focused on invasive species and climate change.

Biological Invasions↗
USGS2010

Climate change and wildlife health: direct and indirect effects

Climate change will have significant effects on the health of wildlife, domestic animals, and humans, according to scientists. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projects that unprecedented rates of climate change will result in increasing average global temperatures; rising sea levels; changing global precipitation patterns, including increasing amounts and variability; and increasing midcontinental summer drought (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007). Increasing temperatures, combined with changes in rainfall and humidity, may have significant impacts on wildlife, domestic animal, and human health and diseases. When combined with expanding human populations, these changes could increase demand on limited water resources, lead to more habitat destruction, and provide yet more opportunities for infectious diseases to cross from one species to another. Awareness has been growing in recent years about zoonotic diseases— that is, diseases that are transmissible between animals and humans, such as Lyme disease and West Nile virus. The rise of such diseases results from closer relationships among wildlife, domestic animals, and people, allowing more contact with diseased animals, organisms that carry and transmit a disease from one animal to another (vectors), and people. Disease vectors include insects, such as mosquitoes, and arachnids, such as ticks. Thus, it is impossible to separate the effects of global warming on wildlife from its effects on the health of domestic animals or people. Climate change, habitat destruction and urbanization, the introduction of exotic and invasive species, and pollution—all affect ecosystem and human health. Climate change can also be viewed within the context of other physical and climate cycles, such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (El Niño), the North Atlantic Oscillation, and cycles in solar radiation that have profound effects on the Earth’s climate. The effects of climate change on wildlife disease are summarized in several areas of scientific study discussed briefly below: geographic range and distribution of wildlife diseases, plant and animal phenology (Walther and others, 2002), and patterns of wildlife disease, community and ecosystem composition, and habitat degradation.

Fact Sheet↗
USGS2016

Projected wetland densities under climate change: Habitat loss but little geographic shift in conservation strategy

Climate change poses major challenges for conservation and management because it alters the area, quality, and spatial distribution of habitat for natural populations. To assess species’ vulnerability to climate change and target ongoing conservation investments, researchers and managers often consider the effects of projected changes in climate and land use on future habitat availability and quality and the uncertainty associated with these projections. Here, we draw on tools from hydrology and climate science to project the impact of climate change on the density of wetlands in the Prairie Pothole Region of the USA, a critical area for breeding waterfowl and other wetland-dependent species. We evaluate the potential for a trade-off in the value of conservation investments under current and future climatic conditions and consider the joint effects of climate and land use. We use an integrated set of hydrological and climatological projections that provide physically based measures of water balance under historical and projected future climatic conditions. In addition, we use historical projections derived from ten general circulation models (GCMs) as a baseline from which to assess climate change impacts, rather than historical climate data. This method isolates the impact of greenhouse gas emissions and ensures that modeling errors are incorporated into the baseline rather than attributed to climate change. Our work shows that, on average, densities of wetlands (here defined as wetland basins holding water) are projected to decline across the U.S. Prairie Pothole Region, but that GCMs differ in both the magnitude and the direction of projected impacts. However, we found little evidence for a shift in the locations expected to provide the highest wetland densities under current vs. projected climatic conditions. This result was robust to the inclusion of projected changes in land use under climate change. We suggest that targeting conservation towards wetland complexes containing both small and relatively large wetland basins, which is an ongoing conservation strategy, may also act to hedge against uncertainty in the effects of climate change.

Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota↗
USGS2011

Adapting to climate change at Olympic National Forest and Olympic National Park

Climate change presents a major challenge to natural resource managers both because of the magnitude of potential effects of climate change on ecosystem structure, processes, and function, and because of the uncertainty associated with those potential ecological effects. Concrete ways to adapt to climate change are needed to help natural resource managers take the first steps to incorporate climate change into management and take advantage of opportunities to counteract the negative effects of climate change. We began a climate change adaptation case study at Olympic National Forest (ONF) in partnership with Olympic National Park (ONP) to determine how to adapt management of federal lands on the Olympic Peninsula, Washington, to climate change. The case study began in the summer of 2008 and continued for 1½ years. The case study process involved science-based sensitivity assessments, review of management activities and constraints, and adaptation workshops in each of four focus areas (hydrology and roads, fish, vegetation, and wildlife). The process produced adaptation options for ONF and ONP, and illustrated the utility of place-based vulnerability assessment and science-management workshops in adapting to climate change. The case study process provides an example for other national forests, national parks, and natural resource agencies of how federal land management units can collaborate in the initial stages of climate change adaptation. Many of the ideas generated through this process can potentially be applied in other locations and in other agencies

Washington↗
USGS2017

Climate change refugia and habitat connectivity promote species persistence

Background Climate change refugia, areas buffered from climate change relative to their surroundings, are of increasing interest as natural resource managers seek to prioritize climate adaptation actions. However, evidence that refugia buffer the effects of anthropogenic climate change is largely missing. Methods Focusing on the climate-sensitive Belding’s ground squirrel ( Urocitellus beldingi ), we predicted that highly connected Sierra Nevada meadows that had warmed less or shown less precipitation change over the last century would have greater population persistence, as measured by short-term occupancy, fewer extirpations over the twentieth century, and long-term persistence measured through genetic diversity. Results Across California, U. beldingi were more likely to persist over the last century in meadows with high connectivity that were defined as refugial based on a suite of temperature and precipitation factors. In Yosemite National Park, highly connected refugial meadows were more likely to be occupied by U. beldingi . More broadly, populations inhabiting Sierra Nevada meadows with colder mean winter temperatures had higher values of allelic richness at microsatellite loci, consistent with higher population persistence in temperature-buffered sites. Furthermore, both allelic richness and gene flow were higher in meadows that had higher landscape connectivity, indicating the importance of metapopulation processes. Conversely, anthropogenic refugia, sites where populations appeared to persist due to food or water supplementation, had lower connectivity, genetic diversity, and gene flow, and thus might act as ecological traps. This study provides evidence that validates the climate change refugia concept in a contemporary context and illustrates how to integrate field observations and genetic analyses to test the effectiveness of climate change refugia and connectivity. Conclusions Climate change refugia will be important for conserving populations as well as genetic diversity and evolutionary potential. Our study shows that in-depth modeling paired with rigorous fieldwork can identify functioning climate change refugia for conservation.

California↗
USGS2016

Climate change and the Delta

Anthropogenic climate change amounts to a rapidly approaching, “new” stressor in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta system. In response to California’s extreme natural hydroclimatic variability, complex water-management systems have been developed, even as the Delta’s natural ecosystems have been largely devastated. Climate change is projected to challenge these management and ecological systems in different ways that are characterized by different levels of uncertainty. For example, there is high certainty that climate will warm by about 2°C more (than late-20th-century averages) by mid-century and about 4°C by end of century, if greenhouse-gas emissions continue their current rates of acceleration. Future precipitation changes are much less certain, with as many climate models projecting wetter conditions as drier. However, the same projections agree that precipitation will be more intense when storms do arrive, even as more dry days will separate storms. Warmer temperatures will likely enhance evaporative demands and raise water temperatures. Consequently, climate change is projected to yield both more extreme flood risks and greater drought risks. Sea level rise (SLR) during the 20th century was about 22cm, and is projected to increase by at least 3-fold this century. SLR together with land subsidence threatens the Delta with greater vulnerabilities to inundation and salinity intrusion. Effects on the Delta ecosystem that are traceable to warming include SLR, reduced snowpack, earlier snowmelt and larger storm-driven streamflows, warmer and longer summers, warmer summer water temperatures, and water-quality changes. These changes and their uncertainties will challenge the operations of water projects and uses throughout the Delta’s watershed and delivery areas. Although the effects of climate change on Delta ecosystems may be profound, the end results are difficult to predict, except that native species will fare worse than invaders. Successful preparation for the coming changes will require greater integration of monitoring, modeling, and decision making across time, variables, and space than has been historically normal.

San Francisco Estuary and Watershed Science↗
USGS2018

Effects of climate change on forest vegetation in the Northern Rockies Region

The projected rapid changes in climate will affect the unique vegetation assemblages of the Northern Rockies region in myriad ways, both directly through shifts in vegetation growth, mortality, and regeneration, and indirectly through changes in disturbance regimes and interactions with changes in other ecosystem processes, such as hydrology, snow dynamics, and exotic invasions (Bonan 2008; Hansen and Phillips 2015; Hansen et al. 2001; Notaro et al. 2007). These impacts, taken collectively, could change the way vegetation is managed by public land agencies in this area. Some species may be in danger of rapid decreases in abundance, while others may undergo range expansion (Landhäusser et al. 2010). New vegetation communities may form, while historical vegetation complexes may simply shift to other areas of the landscape or become rare. Juxtaposed with climate change concerns are the consequences of other land management policies and past activities, such as fire exclusion, fuels treatments, and grazing. A thorough assessment of the responses of vegetation to projected climate change is needed, along with an evaluation of the vulnerability of important species, communities, and vegetation-related resources that may be influenced by the effects, both direct and indirect, of climate change. This assessment must also account for past management actions and current vegetation conditions and their interactions with future climates.

General Technical Report↗
USGS2020

Climate‐change refugia: Biodiversity in the slow lane

Climate‐change adaptation focuses on conducting and translating research to minimize the dire impacts of anthropogenic climate change, including threats to biodiversity and human welfare. One adaptation strategy is to focus conservation on climate‐change refugia (that is, areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and sociocultural resources). In this Special Issue, recent methodological and conceptual advances in refugia science will be highlighted. Advances in this emerging subdiscipline are improving scientific understanding and conservation in the face of climate change by considering scale and ecosystem dynamics, and looking beyond climate exposure to sensitivity and adaptive capacity. We propose considering refugia in the context of a multifaceted, long‐term, network‐based approach, as temporal and spatial gradients of ecological persistence that can act as “slow lanes” rather than areas of stasis. After years of discussion confined primarily to the scientific literature, researchers and resource managers are now working together to put refugia conservation into practice.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗
USGS2016

Physiological basis of climate change impacts on North American inland fishes

Global climate change is altering freshwater ecosystems and affecting fish populations and communities. Underpinning changes in fish distribution and assemblage-level responses to climate change are individual-level physiological constraints. In this review, we synthesize the mechanistic effects of climate change on neuroendocrine, cardiorespiratory, immune, osmoregulatory, and reproductive systems of freshwater and diadromous fishes. Observed climate change effects on physiological systems are varied and numerous, including exceedance of critical thermal tolerances, decreased cardiorespiratory performance, compromised immune function, and altered patterns of individual reproductive investment. However, effects vary widely among and within species because of species, population, and even sex-specific differences in sensitivity and resilience and because of habitat-specific variation in the magnitude of climate-related environmental change. Research on the interactive effects of climate change with other environmental stressors across a broader range of fish diversity is needed to further our understanding of climate change effects on fish physiology.

Fisheries↗
USGS2018

Past and future global transformation of terrestrial ecosystems under climate change

Impacts of global climate change on terrestrial ecosystems are imperfectly constrained by ecosystem models and direct observations. Pervasive ecosystem transformations occurred in response to warming and associated climatic changes during the last glacial-to-interglacial transition, which was comparable in magnitude to warming projected for the next century under high-emission scenarios. We reviewed 594 published paleoecological records to examine compositional and structural changes in terrestrial vegetation since the last glacial period and to project the magnitudes of ecosystem transformations under alternative future emission scenarios. Our results indicate that terrestrial ecosystems are highly sensitive to temperature change and suggest that, without major reductions in greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere, terrestrial ecosystems worldwide are at risk of major transformation, with accompanying disruption of ecosystem services and impacts on biodiversity.

Science↗
USGS2016

Consistent response of bird populations to climate change on two continents

Global climate change is a major threat to biodiversity. Large-scale analyses have generally focused on the impacts of climate change on the geographic ranges of species and on phenology, the timing of ecological phenomena. We used long-term monitoring of the abundance of breeding birds across Europe and the United States to produce, for both regions, composite population indices for two groups of species: those for which climate suitability has been either improving or declining since 1980. The ratio of these composite indices, the climate impact indicator (CII), reflects the divergent fates of species favored or disadvantaged by climate change. The trend in CII is positive and similar in the two regions. On both continents, interspecific and spatial variation in population abundance trends are well predicted by climate suitability trends.

Science↗
USGS2011

Engineering a future for amphibians under climate change

1. Altered global climates in the 21st century pose serious threats for biological systems and practical actions are needed to mount a response for species at risk. 2. We identify management actions from across the world and from diverse disciplines that are applicable to minimizing loss of amphibian biodiversity under climate change. Actions were grouped under three thematic areas of intervention: (i) installation of microclimate and microhabitat refuges; (ii) enhancement and restoration of breeding sites; and (iii) manipulation of hydroperiod or water levels at breeding sites. 3. Synthesis and applications. There are currently few meaningful management actions that will tangibly impact the pervasive threat of climate change on amphibians. A host of potentially useful but poorly tested actions could be incorporated into local or regional management plans, programmes and activities for amphibians. Examples include: installation of irrigation sprayers to manipulate water potentials at breeding sites; retention or supplementation of natural and artificial shelters (e.g. logs, cover boards) to reduce desiccation and thermal stress; manipulation of canopy cover over ponds to reduce water temperature; and, creation of hydrologoically diverse wetland habitats capable of supporting larval development under variable rainfall regimes. We encourage researchers and managers to design, test and scale up new initiatives to respond to this emerging crisis.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗