SEARCH · Search USGS

Results for “Climate Dynamics”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 199 records · Page 11Linked to original sources

USGS2025

Alaskan hydrology in transition: Changing precipitation and evapotranspiration patterns are projected to reshape seasonal streamflow and water temperature by midcentury (2035-2064)

High spatial and temporal resolution models are essential for understanding future climate impacts and developing effective climate resilience plans. However, existing regional and global river models often lack the resolution needed to accurately capture local conditions. This study uses a series of high-resolution models, including the Regional Arctic System Model, mizuRoute, and the river basin model, to analyze Arctic and sub-Arctic Alaskan hydrology. We compare a historical baseline (1991–2020) with six midcentury (2035–64) futures: two pseudo–global warming scenarios based on historical meteorology and four direct dynamically downscaled global climate models. The six futures reveal significant uncertainty in future annual discharge and peak flows, although a widespread increase in discharge during April (+63%) and October (+31%) is consistently shown across models. Projected increases in rain and shifting weather patterns lead to a transition from snow to rain in spring and autumn, reducing the fraction of snowmelt contributing to river discharge. Rising evapotranspiration moderates discharge changes, particularly in autumn, by offsetting precipitation increases. Average summer river temperatures are projected to increase by approximately 1.5°C, doubling the number of river segments that experience 18°C days, a critical threshold for salmon survival, and intensifying the heat flux to the ocean adding an average of 3.3 × 10 12 MJ yr −1 . These changes in the hydrologic cycle could profoundly impact riverine and oceanic ecosystems, posing substantial challenges to communities reliant on these environments.

Alaska, Yukon↗

USGS2022

Atmospheric circulation drivers of extreme high water level events at Foggy Island Bay, Alaska

The northern coast of Alaska is experiencing significant climatic change enhancing hazards from reduced sea ice and increased coastal erosion. This same region is home to offshore oil/gas activities. Foggy Island Bay is one region along the Beaufort Sea coast with planned offshore oil/gas development that will need to account for the changing climate. High water levels impact infrastructure through coastal erosion and flooding hazards. In this study, 21 high water level events exceeding the top 95th percentile were identified at the gauge in Prudhoe Bay, Alaska (adjacent to Foggy Island Bay) over 1990-2018. All events were associated with strong westerly winds according to weather station records. Low pressure storm systems were found to be a key driver of westerly winds in the region according to downscaled reanalysis and storm track data. A dynamically downscaled global climate model projection from CMIP5 indicates that days with westerly wind events will become frequent by 2100 in the Foggy Island Bay region. Coupled with the anticipated continued decline in sea ice, the northern coast of Alaska may experience more frequent high water events over the next ~80 years.

Alaska↗

USGS2024

Managing ecosystems with resist-accept-direct (RAD)

In recent years considerable interest has been generated in a new approach known as resist – accept – direct , or RAD, for managing ecosystems in the face of climate change. Under RAD, strategic responses to climate change are described in terms of three broad categories: resisting climate transformation, accepting the transformation and continuing to manage as best one can, and directing the transformed system toward novel ecological conditions. In particular, the potential for integrating RAD and adaptive management has been broadly considered, though absent a decision-making framework needed for implementation. We propose a hierarchical decision scheme for RAD that accounts for strategy selection among the three RAD options, as well as adaptive decision making within each option. We use stochastic models and uncertainties about ecosystem processes to account for the dynamics of climate-transformed ecosystems, and show how these features can be used to inform RAD strategies. Operationally, the approach involves decisions at two levels: one level involves choosing a policy for each strategy, and the second level involves deciding which strategy has the greatest policy value. The structure described here extends recent work in climate change adaptation, by including Markovian decisions under climate change, strategy-specific policies, and value functions for assessing and selecting RAD strategies. We provide a hierarchical accounting of decisions and responses, and develop rules for the timing of those decisions. Combining RAD and adaptive management can help to organize thinking about ecological conservation under climate change, and focus attention on mechanisms for making decisions. We believe the structure presented here can facilitate conservation efforts under the non-stationary climate conditions we are sure to face for the foreseeable future.

Methods in Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2020

Simulated increases in fire activity reinforce shrub conversion in a southwestern US forest

Fire exclusion in historically frequent-fire forests of the southwestern United States has altered forest structure and increased the probability of high-severity fire. Warmer and drier conditions, coupled with dispersal distance limitations, are impeding tree seedling establishment and survival following high-severity fire. High-severity patches are commonly dominated by non-forest vegetation, a state that can be reinforced by subsequent fire events. We sought to determine the influence of fire probability on post-fire vegetation development in a severely burned landscape in New Mexico, USA. We used LANDIS-II to simulate three fire probability scenarios—historical fire probability, contemporary fire probability, and the mean of the two—with contemporary climate. As fire probability increased, the mean size of the largest fires and the mean landscape fire severity increased. These changes in fire characteristics resulted in decreased total aboveground biomass and photosynthetic capacity on the landscape after 50 years. Additionally, the distribution of individual species biomass shifted, with early successional species, especially those that resprout after fire, increasing as a fraction of total biomass with increasing fire occurrence. Counter to empirical data, our simulations did not show a conifer establishment limitation, suggesting a source of uncertainty that will need to be addressed to improve projections of forest dynamics under future climate. Even without limited conifer regeneration, continued increases in fire frequency are likely to favor resprouting species and result in a loss of forest biomass and ecosystem productivity in this southwestern forest landscape.

New Mexico↗

USGS2013

The effects of increased stream temperatures on juvenile steelhead growth in the Yakima River Basin based on projected climate change scenarios

Stakeholders within the Yakima River Basin expressed concern over impacts of climate change on mid-Columbia River steelhead ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ) , listed under the Endangered Species Act. We used a bioenergetics model to assess the impacts of changing stream temperatures—resulting from different climate change scenarios—on growth of juvenile steelhead in the Yakima River Basin. We used diet and fish size data from fieldwork in a bioenergetics model and integrated baseline and projected stream temperatures from down-scaled air temperature climate modeling into our analysis. The stream temperature models predicted that daily mean temperatures of salmonid-rearing streams in the basin could increase by 1–2°C and our bioenergetics simulations indicated that such increases could enhance the growth of steelhead in the spring, but reduce it during the summer. However, differences in growth rates of fish living under different climate change scenarios were minor, ranging from about 1–5%. Because our analysis focused mostly on the growth responses of steelhead to changes in stream temperatures, further work is needed to fully understand the potential impacts of climate change. Studies should include evaluating changing stream flows on fish activity and energy budgets, responses of aquatic insects to climate change, and integration of bioenergetics, population dynamics, and habitat responses to climate change.

Washington↗

USGS2022

A comparison of non-surgical methods for sexing young gopher tortoises (Gopherus polyphemus)

Many turtle species have temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD), raising the prospect that climate change could impact population dynamics by altering sex ratios. Understanding how climate change will affect populations of animals with TSD requires a reliable and minimally invasive method of identifying the sexes of young individuals. This determination is challenging in many turtles, which often lack conspicuous external sexual dimorphism until years after hatching. Here, we explore four alternatives for sexing three age classes of captive-reared young gopher tortoises ( Gopherus polyphemus ), a terrestrial turtle of conservation concern native to the southeastern United States: (1) naive testosterone levels, (2) testosterone levels following a follicle stimulating hormone (FSH) challenge, (3) linear morphological measurements, and (4) geometric morphometrics. Unlike some other turtle species, male and female neonatal gopher tortoises have overlapping naive testosterone concentration distributions, justifying more complicated methods. We found that sex of neonates (<7 days old) is best predicted by a “random forest” machine learning model with naive testosterone levels and morphological measurements (8% out-of-bag error). Sex of hatchlings (4–8 months old) was predicted with 11% error using a simple threshold on naive testosterone levels, or with 4% error using a simple threshold on post-FSH testosterone levels. Sex of juveniles (approximately 3.5 years old) was perfectly predicted using a simple threshold on naive testosterone levels. Sexing hatchlings at >4 months of age is the easiest and most reliable non-surgical method for sex identification. Given access to a rearing facility and equipment to perform hormone assays, these methods have the potential to supplant laparoscopic surgery as the method of choice for sexing young gopher tortoises.

Georgia↗

USGS2002

Fire dynamics and implications for nitrogen cycling in boreal forests

We used a dynamic, long-term mass balance approach to track cumulative carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) losses to fire in boreal Manitoba over the 6500 years since deglaciation. Estimated C losses to decomposition and fire, combined with measurements of N pools in mature and burned forest floors, suggest that loss of N by combustion has likely resulted in a long-term loss that exceeds the amount of N stored in soil today by 2 to 3 times. These estimates imply that biological N fixation rates could be as high as 5 to 10 times atmospheric deposition rates in boreal regions. At the site scale, the amount of N lost is due to N content of fuels, which varies by stand type and fire severity, which in turn vary with climate and fire dynamics. The interplay of fire frequency, fire severity, and N partitioning during regrowth are important for understanding rates and sustainability of nutrient and carbon cycling over millenia and over broad regions.

Manitoba↗

USGS2024

Existing evidence on the effects of climate variability and climate change on ungulates in North America: A systematic map

Background Climate is an important driver of ungulate life-histories, population dynamics, and migratory behaviors. Climate conditions can directly impact ungulates via changes in the costs of thermoregulation and locomotion, or indirectly, via changes in habitat and forage availability, predation, and species interactions. Many studies have documented the effects of climate variability and climate change on North America’s ungulates, recording impacts to population demographics, physiology, foraging behavior, migratory patterns, and more. However, ungulate responses are not uniform and vary by species and geography. Here, we present a systematic map describing the abundance and distribution of evidence on the effects of climate variability and climate change on native ungulates in North America. Methods We searched for all evidence documenting or projecting how climate variability and climate change affect the 15 ungulate species native to the U.S., Canada, Mexico, and Greenland. We searched Web of Science, Scopus, and the websites of 62 wildlife management agencies to identify relevant academic and grey literature. We screened English-language documents for inclusion at both the title and abstract and full-text levels. Data from all articles that passed full-text review were extracted and coded in a database. We identified knowledge clusters and gaps related to the species, locations, climate variables, and outcome variables measured in the literature. Review findings We identified a total of 674 relevant articles published from 1947 until September 2020. Caribou ( Rangifer tarandus ), elk ( Cervus canadensis ), and white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ) were the most frequently studied species. Geographically, more research has been conducted in the western U.S. and western Canada, though a notable concentration of research is also located in the Great Lakes region. Nearly 75% more articles examined the effects of precipitation on ungulates compared to temperature, with variables related to snow being the most commonly measured climate variables. Most studies examined the effects of climate on ungulate population demographics, habitat and forage, and physiology and condition, with far fewer examining the effects on disturbances, migratory behavior, and seasonal range and corridor habitat. Conclusions The effects of climate change, and its interactions with stressors such as land-use change, predation, and disease, is of increasing concern to wildlife managers. With its broad scope, this systematic map can help ungulate managers identify relevant climate impacts and prepare for future changes to the populations they manage. Decisions regarding population control measures, supplemental feeding, translocation, and the application of habitat treatments are just some of the management decisions that can be informed by an improved understanding of climate impacts. This systematic map also identified several gaps in the literature that would benefit from additional research, including climate effects on ungulate migratory patterns, on species that are relatively understudied yet known to be sensitive to changes in climate, such as pronghorn ( Antilocapra americana ) and mountain goats ( Oreamnos americanus ), and on ungulates in the eastern U.S. and Mexico.

Environmental Evidence↗

USGS2013

Climate change winners: receding ice fields facilitate colony expansion and altered dynamics in an Adélie penguin metapopulation

There will be winners and losers as climate change alters the habitats of polar organisms. For an Adélie penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae) colony on Beaufort Island (Beaufort), part of a cluster of colonies in the southern Ross Sea, we report a recent population increase in response to increased nesting habitat as glaciers have receded. Emigration rates of birds banded as chicks on Beaufort to colonies on nearby Ross Island decreased after 2005 as available habitat on Beaufort increased, leading to altered dynamics of the metapopulation. Using aerial photography beginning in 1958 and modern satellite imagery, we measured change in area of available nesting habitat and population size of the Beaufort colony. Population size varied with available habitat, and both increased rapidly since the 1990s. In accord with glacial retreat, summer temperatures at nearby McMurdo Station increased by ~0.50°C per decade since the mid-1980s. Although the Ross Sea is likely to be the last ocean with an intact ecosystem, the recent retreat of ice fields at Beaufort that resulted in increased breeding habitat exemplifies a process that has been underway in the Ross Sea during the entire Holocene. Furthermore, our results are in line with predictions that major ice shelves and glaciers will retreat rapidly elsewhere in the Antarctic, potentially leading to increased breeding habitat for Adélie penguins. Results further indicated that satellite imagery may be used to estimate large changes in Adélie penguin populations, facilitating our understanding of metapopulation dynamics and environmental factors that influence regional populations.

PLoS ONE↗

USGS2004

Demographic analysis of dormancy and survival in the terrestrial orchid Cypripedium reginae

1. We use capture-recapture models to estimate the fraction of dormant ramets, survival and state transition rates, and to identify factors affecting these rates, for the terrestrial orchid Cypripedium reginae . We studied two populations in West Virginia, USA, for 11 years and investigated relationships between grazing and demography. Abe Run's population was small, with moderate herbivory by deer and relatively constant population size. The population at Big Draft was of medium size, with heavy deer grazing, and a sharply declining number of flowering plants up to the spring before our study started, when the population was fenced. 2. We observed dormant episodes lasting from 1 to 4 years. At Abe Run and Big Draft, 32.5% and 7.4% of ramets, respectively, were dormant at least once during the study period for an average of 1.6 and 1.3 years, respectively. We estimated the annual fraction of ramets in the dormant state at 12.3% (95% CI 9.5-15.8%) at Abe Run and at 1.8% (95% CI 1.2-2.6%) at Big Draft. Transition rates between the dormant, vegetative and flowering life-states did not vary between years in either population. Most surviving ramets remained in the same state from one year to the next. Survival rates were constant at Abe Run (0.96, 95% CI 0.93-0.97), but varied between years at Big Draft (0.89-0.99, mean 0.95). 3. At Big Draft, we found neither a temporal trend in survival after cessation of grazing, nor relationships between survival and the number of spring frost days or cumulative precipitation during the current or the previous 12 months. However, analysis of precipitation on a 3-month basis revealed a positive relationship between survival and precipitation during the spring (March-May) of the previous year. 4. Relationship between climate and the population dynamics of orchids may have to be studied with a fine temporal resolution, and considering possible time lags. Capture-recapture modelling provides a comprehensive and flexible framework for demographic analysis of plants with dormancy. 4. Relationship between climate and the population dynamics of orchids may have to be studied with a fine temporal resolution, and considering possible time lags. Capture-recapture modelling provides a comprehensive and flexible framework for demographic analysis of plants with dormancy.

West Virginia↗

USGS2023

High-resolution thermal imagery reveals how interactions between crown structure and genetics shape plant temperature

Understanding interactions between environmental stress and genetic variation is crucial to predict the adaptive capacity of species to climate change. Leaf temperature is both a driver and a responsive indicator of plant physiological response to thermal stress, and methods to monitor it are needed. Foliar temperatures vary across leaf to canopy scales and are influenced by genetic factors, challenging efforts to map and model this critical variable. Thermal imagery collected using unoccupied aerial systems (UAS) offers an innovative way to measure thermal variation in plants across landscapes at leaf-level resolutions. We used a UAS equipped with a thermal camera to assess temperature variation among genetically distinct populations of big sagebrush ( Artemisia tridentata ), a keystone plant species that is the focus of intensive restoration efforts throughout much of western North America. We completed flights across a growing season in a sagebrush common garden to map leaf temperature relative to subspecies and cytotype, physiological phenotypes of plants, and summer heat stress. Our objectives were to (1) determine whether leaf-level stomatal conductance corresponds with changes in crown temperature; (2) quantify genetic (i.e., subspecies and cytotype) contributions to variation in leaf and crown temperatures; and (3) identify how crown structure, solar radiation, and subspecies-cytotype relate to leaf-level temperature. When considered across the whole season, stomatal conductance was negatively, non-linearly correlated with crown-level temperature derived from UAS. Subspecies identity best explained crown-level temperature with no difference observed between cytotypes. However, structural phenotypes and microclimate best explained leaf-level temperature. These results show how fine-scale thermal mapping can decouple the contribution of genetic, phenotypic, and microclimate factors on leaf temperature dynamics. As climate-change-induced heat stress becomes prevalent, thermal UAS represents a promising way to track plant phenotypes that emerge from gene-by-environment interactions.

Idaho↗

USGS2022

Population viability analysis for a pond-breeding amphibian under future drought scenarios in the southeastern United States

Climate change effects are contributing to widespread declines of amphibians, and pond-breeding species may be particularly sensitive to future drought conditions that restrict wetland hydroperiods and decrease opportunities for successful breeding and recruitment. Pond-breeding amphibian populations can compensate for periodic droughts via episodic booms in recruitment, but studies predict that increased future drought conditions will negatively impact long-term persistence for several species. The southeastern United States is a global hotspot of amphibian biodiversity where future trends in drought conditions are uncertain. This study applied a population viability analysis (PVA) framework for an at-risk amphibian, the gopher frog ( Lithobates [ Rana ] capito ), to (i) explore population sensitivity to the frequency of droughts that restrict reproductive events, relative to changes in other demographic rates, and (ii) forecast future population viability over 30 years, given plausible scenarios varying in the frequency and duration of droughts adapted from recent historical patterns in the southeastern United States. Population persistence was highly sensitive to frequency of reproductive success. Persistence was fairly insensitive to all demographic parameters when reproductive success was ≥ 0.7 (i.e., ≤ 3 drought years per decade, on average), but sensitivity to survival of terrestrial stages (juvenile, adults) and initial abundance increased as reproductive success decreased. Persistence probabilities were relatively high (0.63–0.99) across a range of plausible future drought scenarios, with higher persistence probabilities (> 0.89) for all scenarios where drought years did not increase from recent historical conditions. Our results indicate gopher frog populations are likely resilient to periodic droughts that occur in 4 or fewer years per decade, but extirpation of some populations is possible if recent drought patterns repeat or increase during the next 30 years. Estimates of future risk to gopher frog populations can inform forthcoming status assessments and designation decisions of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. More broadly, PVAs incorporating drought dynamics can identify climate thresholds that at-risk, pond-breeding amphibian populations can tolerate, which can inform management actions (e.g., maintaining a range of hydroperiods across proximate wetlands) that provide sufficient frequent breeding opportunities for long-term persistence even under drought conditions.

Global Ecology and Conservation↗

USGS2021

Are drought indices and climate data good indicators of ecologically relevant soil moisture dynamics in drylands?

Droughts are disproportionately impacting global dryland regions where ecosystem health and function are tightly coupled to moisture availability. Drought severity is commonly estimated using algorithms such as the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI), which can estimate climatic water balance impacts at various hydrologic scales by varying computational length. However, the performance of these metrics as indicators of soil moisture dynamics at ecologically relevant scales, across soil depths, and in consideration of broader scale ecohydrological processes, requires more attention. In this study, we tested components of climatic water balance, including SPEI and SPEI computation lengths, to recreate multi-decadal and periodic soil-moisture patterns across soil profiles at 866 sites in the western United States. Modeling results show that SPEI calculated over the prior 12-months was the most predictive computation length and could recreate changes in moisture availability within the soil profile over longer periods of time and for annual recharge of deeper soil moisture stores. SPEI was slightly less successful with recreating spring surface-soil moisture availability, which is key to dryland ecosystems dominated by winter precipitation. Meteorological drought indices like SPEI are intended to be convenient and generalized indicators of meteorological water deficit. However, the inconsistent ability of SPEI to recreate ecologically relevant patterns of soil moisture at regional scales suggests that process-based models, and the larger data requirements they involve, remain an important tool for dryland ecohydrology

California, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Utah↗

USGS2026

Prolonged cooling of andesitic-dacitic lava flows produces optimal groundmass material for 40Ar/39Ar dating

Organizing the eruptive histories and petrogenetic models that underpin hazard assessments at active volcanoes typically requires high-precision ages for late Pleistocene to Holocene lava flows. In this study, features of an existing 40Ar/39Ar dataset for andesitic-dacitic rocks from Ruapehu volcano, Aotearoa New Zealand, were interrogated with new microanalytical data to identify the optimal groundmass material for age determination. To understand the behavior of K and Ar within the cooling melt of lavas during their emplacement, we examined and compared the petrological features of samples from the ice-chilled margin and interior of a lava flow. The groundmass of the rapidly cooled sample comprises non-vesicular rhyolitic glass and microlites of plagioclase, orthopyroxene, and magnetite. The sample from the flow interior has minimal amounts of groundmass glass, and interstices are instead occupied by sanidine and tridymite. Modelling supports the interpretation that sanidine crystallized as a stable groundmass phase during slow cooling of degassed melt in the interior zones of lavas that were insulated behind their glassy margins. Our evaluation of the age data shows that sanidine contributed high yields of radiogenic argon during step-heating experiments for samples collected from lava interiors, which enabled high-precision 40Ar/39Ar ages to be determined. Using Ruapehu as an example of an arc volcano affected by lava-ice interaction, we provide a basic field guide for identifying lava flows that contain groundmass sanidine at the expense of glass. Target outcrops also offer opportunities for reconstructing geomagnetic dynamics and volcano–climate relationships during the Pleistocene and Holocene.

Ruapehu volcano↗

USGS2008

Range-wide phylogeographic analysis of the spotted frog complex (Rana luteiventris and Rana pretiosa) in northwestern North America

The dynamic geological and climatic history of northwestern North America has made it a focal region for phylogeography. We conducted a range-wide phylogeographic analysis of the spotted frog complex (Rana luteiventris and Rana pretiosa) across its range in northwestern North America to understand its evolutionary history and the distribution of clades to inform conservation of R. pretiosa and Great Basin R. luteiventris, candidates for listing under the US Endangered Species Act. Mitochondrial DNA sequence data from a segment of the cytochrome b gene were obtained from 308 R. luteiventris and R. pretiosa from 96 sites. Phylogenetic analysis revealed one main R. pretiosa clade and three main R. luteiventris clades, two of which overlapped in southeastern Oregon. The three R. luteiventris clades were separated from each other by high levels of sequence divergence (average of 4.75-4.97%). Two divergent clades were also uncovered within the Great Basin. Low genetic variation in R. pretiosa and the southeastern Oregon clade of R. luteiventris suggests concern about their vulnerability to extinction. ?? 2008 Elsevier Inc.

Molecular Phylogenetics and Evolution↗

USGS2003

Quaternary vegetation and climate change in the western United States: Developments, perspectives, and prospects

This chapter explores the strengths and shortcomings of the major sources of data on Quaternary vegetation and climate change and discusses the use of models as a means to explore past and potential future environmental changes. The flora and major vegetation types of the western United States are present for several million years. Ongoing changes in atmospheric chemistry , climate, and human activities may lead to major vegetation changes over the coming decades to centuries. The combination of observations from the paleoenvironmental record, modern ecological studies, and modeling now permit assessments of the magnitude of potential future changes in the context of natural variability. They also provide opportunities for hypothesis testing and identification of the processes driving past changes in vegetation and climate. Understanding the dynamics of paleoenvironmental change can contribute to current conservation and natural resource management efforts and will help conservation and natural resource managers anticipate the potential rate, magnitude, and complexity of future vegetation change.

western United States↗

USGS2020

Persistence and plasticity in conifer water-use strategies

The selective use of seasonal precipitation by vegetation is critical to understanding the residence time and flow path of water in watersheds, yet there are limited datasets to test how climate alters these dynamics. Here, we use measurements of the seasonal cycle of tree ring 18O for two widespread conifer species in the Rocky Mountains of North America to provide a multi-decadal depiction of the seasonal origins of forest water use. The results show that while the conifer tree stands had a dominant preference for use of snowmelt, there were multi-annual periods over the last four decades when use of summer precipitation was preferential. Utilization of summer rain emerged during years with increased snowfall and tree growth, suggesting that summer rain enhanced the transpiration stream only during the periods of highest water use. We hypothesize this could be explained through shallowing of the root profile during wetter periods and/or through the influence of changing water table depths on the residence time of summer precipitation in the root zone. We suggest the tree ring proxy approach used here could be applied in other watersheds to provide critical insight into the temporal dynamics of plant water use that could not be inferred from short measurement campaigns. These data on the seasonal origins of forest water are critical for understanding forest vulnerability to drought, the processes that affect precipitation pathways and residence time in watersheds and the interpretation of tree ring proxy data.

Colorado↗

USGS2025

Abrupt changes in algal biomass of thousands of US lakes are related to climate and are more likely in low-disturbance watersheds.

Climate change is predicted to intensify lake algal blooms globally and result in regime shifts. However, observed increases in algal biomass do not consistently correlate with air temperature or precipitation, and evidence is lacking for a causal effect of climate or the nonlinear dynamics needed to demonstrate regime shifts. We modeled the causal effects of climate on annual lake chlorophyll (a measure of algal biomass) over 34 y for 24,452 lakes across broad ecoclimatic zones of the United States and evaluated the potential for regime shifts. We found that algal biomass was causally related to climate in 34% of lakes. In these cases, 71% exhibited abrupt but mostly temporary shifts as opposed to persistent changes, 13% had the potential for regime shifts. Climate was causally related to algal biomass in lakes experiencing all levels of human disturbance, but with different likelihood. Climate causality was most likely to be observed in lakes with minimal human disturbance and cooler summer temperatures that have increased over the 34 y studied. Climate causality was variable in lakes with low to moderate human disturbance, and least likely in lakes with high human disturbance, which may mask climate causality. Our results explain some of the previously observed heterogeneous climate responses of lake algal biomass globally and they can be used to predict future climate effects on lakes.

continental United States↗