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USGS2004

A hierarchical spatial model of avian abundance with application to Cerulean Warblers

Surveys collecting count data are the primary means by which abundance is indexed for birds. These counts are confounded, however, by nuisance effects including observer effects and spatial correlation between counts. Current methods poorly accommodate both observer and spatial effects because modeling these spatially autocorrelated counts within a hierarchical framework is not practical using standard statistical approaches. We propose a Bayesian approach to this problem and provide as an example of its implementation a spatial model of predicted abundance for the Cerulean Warbler (Dendroica cerulea) in the Prairie-Hardwood Transition of the upper midwestern United States. We used an overdispersed Poisson regression with fixed and random effects, fitted by Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. We used 21 years of North American Breeding Bird Survey counts as the response in a loglinear function of explanatory variables describing habitat, spatial relatedness, year effects, and observer effects. The model included a conditional autoregressive term representing potential correlation between adjacent route counts. Categories of explanatory habitat variables in the model included land cover composition and configuration, climate, terrain heterogeneity, and human influence. The inherent hierarchy in the model was from counts occurring, in part, as a function of observers within survey routes within years. We found that the percentage of forested wetlands, an index of wetness potential, and an interaction between mean annual precipitation and deciduous forest patch size best described Cerulean Warbler abundance. Based on a map of relative abundance derived from the posterior parameter estimates, we estimated that only 15% of the species' population occurred on federal land, necessitating active engagement of public landowners and state agencies in the conservation of the breeding habitat for this species. Models of this type can be applied to any data in which the response is counts, such as animal counts, activity (e.g.,nest) counts, or species richness. The most noteworthy practical application of this spatial modeling approach is the ability to map relative species abundance. The functional relationships that we elucidated for the Cerulean Warbler provide a basis for the development of management programs and may serve to focus management and monitoring on areas and habitat variables important to Cerulean Warblers.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2008

Desert bird associations with broad-scale boundary length: Applications in avian conservation

1. Current understanding regarding the effects of boundaries on bird communities has originated largely from studies of forest-non-forest boundaries in mesic systems. To assess whether broad-scale boundary length can affect bird community structure in deserts, and to identify patterns and predictors of species' associations useful in avian conservation, we studied relations between birds and boundary-length variables in Chihuahuan Desert landscapes. Operationally, a boundary was the border between two adjoining land covers, and broad-scale boundary length was the total length of such borders in a large area. 2. Within 2-km radius areas, we measured six boundary-length variables. We analysed bird-boundary relations for 26 species, tested for assemblage-level patterns in species' associations with boundary-length variables, and assessed whether body size, dispersal ability and cowbird-host status were correlates of these associations. 3. The abundances or occurrences of a significant majority of species were associated with boundary-length variables, and similar numbers of species were related positively and negatively to boundary-length variables. 4. Disproportionately small numbers of species were correlated with total boundary length, land-cover boundary length and shrubland-grassland boundary length (variables responsible for large proportions of boundary length). Disproportionately large numbers of species were correlated with roadside boundary length and riparian vegetation-grassland boundary length (variables responsible for small proportions of boundary length). Roadside boundary length was associated (positively and negatively) with the most species. 5. Species' associations with boundary-length variables were not correlated with body size, dispersal ability or cowbird-host status. 6. Synthesis and applications. For the species we studied, conservationists can use the regressions we report as working models to anticipate influences of boundary-length changes on bird abundance and occurrence, and to assess avifaunal composition for areas under consideration for protection. Boundary-length variables associated with a disproportionate or large number of species can be used as foci for landscape management. Assessing the underlying causes of bird-boundary relations may improve the prediction accuracy of associated models. We therefore advocate local- and broad-scale manipulative experiments involving the boundary types with which species were correlated, as indicated by the regressions. ?? 2008 The Authors.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

USGS2025

Fine-scale spatial risk models to predict avian collisions with power lines

1. Avian fatalities caused by collisions with overhead power lines are an important conservation issue worldwide. Although mitigation strategies can help reduce mortalities, given their considerable cost and the vast scale of power line infrastructure, cost-effective action requires that these efforts be prioritised to areas with the highest potential risk to birds. To date, this risk assessment has usually been guided by potentially biased information on the location of recorded fatalities. 2. Here we use five years of GPS tracking data from endangered Tasmanian wedge-tailed eagles to develop an alternative approach to risk assessment: fine-scale spatial risk models based on behavioural analyses. We built and cross-validated a model that generates spatially explicit predictions of the probability that eagles would cross power lines at hazardous altitudes throughout the entire Tasmanian electricity distribution network. 3. In our model, probability of power line crossings was most strongly associated with the proportion of forest edges, wet forest, open habitat, freshwater sources, and rural residential developments in the area surrounding the power lines. Cross-validation indicated that the model effectively predicted where Tasmanian wedge-tailed eagles cross power lines at low altitude. 4. Model validation suggested our approach was a powerful predictor of the locations of power line collisions involving eagles. The locations of almost all (94%) confirmed eagle fatalities were in the half of the total Tasmanian power line area assigned the higher risk by the model, and 50% of incidents occurred in the 30% of the power line area estimated to be highest risk. 5. Synthesis and applications . Our study illustrates a framework for using bird movement data to provide insights into avian behaviour and the risk they encounter around power line infrastructure. Electricity delivery industries can use these models to identify the electrical infrastructure that poses the highest risk to avian survival and prioritise mitigation efforts, thereby optimizing the benefit of investments to reduce detrimental effects on biodiversity. Our model can direct pre-emptive mitigation across Tasmania’s 20,310 km of distribution infrastructure to meet management targets aiming to reduce the negative effects of power lines on the Tasmanian wedge-tailed eagle.

Tasmania↗

USGS2018

Regenerating clearcuts combined with postharvest forestry treatments promote habitat for breeding and post-breeding spruce-fir avian assemblages in the Atlantic Northern Forest

The quantity of spruce-fir forest and some conifer-associated breeding bird abundances in the Atlantic Northern Forest have declined in recent decades emphasizing the need to better understand avian responses to forest management and to identify options that proactively conserve habitat for birds during the breeding and post-breeding period. We conducted avian point counts and vegetation surveys on publicly and privately-owned lands with known management histories to assess relationships between avian assemblages in harvest and postharvest treatments that could provide habitat for passerine birds associated with the spruce-fir forest type. We sampled regenerating conifer-dominated stands 5–41 years-since-harvest (YSH) in three harvest treatments (selection, irregular first-stage shelterwood, and clearcuts) and three postharvest treatments including regenerating clearcuts treated with aerially applied herbicide (e.g., glyphosate), precommercial thinning (PCT), both herbicide and PCT, and mature stands (≥48 YSH). Spruce-fir obligate and associate birds were more abundant in stands with greater spruce-fir tree composition (≥70% and ≥60%, respectively). Avian richness of spruce-fir obligates, associates, and species of concern was greater in clearcuts and clearcuts with postharvest treatments. Vegetative features associated with greater richness and abundance of spruce-fir birds, such as greater spruce-fir composition and smaller tree diameter at breast height, were prominent in regenerating clearcuts and postharvest treatments and suggested that these management practices promote local abundances and richness of spruce-fir birds. Richness and abundances of spruce-fir birds were least in selection, shelterwood, and mature stands, and vegetative features associated with greater richness and abundance of spruce-fir birds were diminished in these stands. Forestry trends in Maine indicate that the extent of the clearcut suite of treatments has decreased on the landscape while selection and shelterwood harvests have increased. Thus, changes in incentives for managers to apply even-aged management coupled with post-harvest applications of herbicides or precommercial thinning might mitigate further declines in habitat for spruce-fir passerines assemblages. A greater ratio of clearcuts with postharvest treatments 11–40 YSH compared to other treatments (mature forest ≥48 YSH, selection and shelterwood 5–41 YSH) would maintain diverse spruce-fir bird communities on the landscape. Use of clearcuts with postharvest treatments in the hemiboreal forests of northern New England, southern Quebec, and Maritime Provinces of eastern Canada may enhance habitat for breeding and post-breeding spruce-fir birds, especially where the quantity of conifer forests are declining and residual patches of conifers are increasingly fragmented.

Atlantic Northern Forest↗

USGS2022

Stochastic agent-based model for predicting turbine-scale raptor movements during updraft-subsidized directional flights

Rapid expansion of wind energy development across the world has highlighted the need to better understand turbine-caused avian mortality. The risk to golden eagles ( Aquila chrysaetos ) is of particular concern due to their small population size and conservation status. Golden eagles subsidize their flight in part by soaring in orographic updrafts, which can place them in conflict with wind turbines utilizing the same low-altitude wind resource. Understanding the behavior of soaring raptors in varying atmospheric conditions can therefore be relevant to predicting and mitigating their risk of collision. We present a predictive movement model that simulates individual paths of golden eagles during directional flight (such as migration) that is subsidized by orographic updraft. We modeled eagles in a 50 km by 50 km study area in Wyoming containing three wind power plants with documented golden eagle collisions with turbines. The movement model is applicable to any region where ground elevation is known at turbine scale ( < "> < 50 m) and wind conditions are known at facility scale ( < "> < 3 km). For a given set of atmospheric conditions, the model simulates movements of thousands of orographic soaring eagles to produce a density map quantifying the relative probability of eagle presence. We validated the simulated tracks with GPS telemetry data showing four directional tracks made by golden eagles transiting through the area in 2019 and 2020. For each eagle track, validation was performed using the ratio of the model-simulated eagle presence likelihood with uniform eagle presence and the presence computed using directed random-walk movements. We found that the predictive performance of the model was significantly better (likelihood ratio > "> > 1) for low-altitude movements than high-altitude movements that can involve thermal-soaring. We employed the model to produce seasonal presence maps for migrating golden eagles. We found significant turbine-level variations in eagle presence between northerly and southerly migration routes through the study area. Overall, the proposed model offers a generalizable, probabilistic, and predictive tool to assist wind energy developers, ecologists, wildlife managers, and industry consultants in estimating the potential for conflict between soaring birds and wind turbines, thereby reducing the need for site-specific data on golden eagle movements.

Wyoming↗

USGS2022

Integrating data types to estimate spatial patterns of avian migration across the Western Hemisphere

For many avian species, spatial migration patterns remain largely undescribed, especially across hemispheric extents. Recent advancements in tracking technologies and high-resolution species distribution models (i.e., eBird Status and Trends products) provide new insights into migratory bird movements and offer a promising opportunity for integrating independent data sources to describe avian migration. Here, we present a three-stage modeling framework for estimating spatial patterns of avian migration. First, we integrate tracking and band re-encounter data to quantify migratory connectivity, defined as the relative proportions of individuals migrating between breeding and nonbreeding regions. Next, we use estimated connectivity proportions along with eBird occurrence probabilities to produce probabilistic least-cost path (LCP) indices. In a final step, we use generalized additive mixed models (GAMMs) both to evaluate the ability of LCP indices to accurately predict (i.e., as a covariate) observed locations derived from tracking and band re-encounter datasets versus pseudo-absence locations during migratory periods, and to create a fully integrated (i.e., eBird occurrence, LCP, and tracking/band re-encounter data) spatial prediction index for mapping species-specific seasonal migrations. To illustrate this approach, we apply this framework to describe seasonal migrations of 12 bird species across the Western Hemisphere during pre- and post-breeding migratory periods (i.e., spring and fall, respectively). We found that including LCP indices with eBird occurrence in GAMMs generally improved the ability to accurately predict observed migratory locations, when compared to models with eBird occurrence alone. Using three performance metrics, the eBird + LCP model demonstrated equivalent or superior fit relative to the eBird-only model for 22 of 24 species-season GAMMs. In particular, the integrated index filled in spatial gaps for species with over-water movements and those that migrated over land where there were few eBird sightings, and thus, low predictive ability of eBird occurrence probabilities (e.g., Amazonian rainforest in South America). This methodology of combining individual-based seasonal movement data with temporally dynamic species distribution models provides a comprehensive approach for integrating multiple data types to describe broad-scale spatial patterns of animal movement. Further development and customization of this approach will continue to advance knowledge about the full annual cycle and conservation of migratory birds.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS1999

Le Conte's sparrows breeding in Conservation Reserve Program fields: precipitation and patterns of population change

The climate of the North American Great Plains is highly dynamic, with great year-to-year variability in precipitation and periodic, often extreme, wet and dry cycles (Bragg 1995). Drought is a major force of ecological disturbance on the Great Plains and has played a key role in directing the evolution of the grassland biota of this region (Knopf and Samson 1997). Although grassland birds may differ in their responses to enviromenental variations (Rotenberry and Wiens 1991), climatic variability and concomitant unpredictability of resources strongly influence populations of grassland birds across space and time (Wiens 1974, 1986; Cody 1985). Not surprisingly, breeding bird populations on the Great Plains are highly dynamic, exhibiting considerable annual variation in composition, abundance, and distribution (Johnson and Grier 1988, George et al. 1992, Zimmerman 1992, Igl and Johnson 1997). Recently, interest in grassland birds has increased with the recognition that many species are declining both continentally (Droege and Sauer 1994) and globally (Goriup 1988). Identification of the specific factors associated with grassland bird declines in North America, however, remains largely enigmatic (Herkert 1997), and it is complicated by the considerable annual fluctuations in grassland bird distribution and abundance (Igl and Johnson 1997). Although there is evidence that land-use changes on the breeding grounds may have contributed to grassland bird declines (e.g., Igl and Johnson 1997), there also is an indication that long-term drought conditions may have influenced recent population changes of some breeding birds on the Great Plains (Droege and Sauer 1989, Peterjohn and Sauer 1993, Bethke and Nudds 1995, Igl and Johnson 1997). Le Conte's Sparrow (Ammodramus leconteii) is a secretive grassland bird that breeds in central and southern Canada and the northcentral United States (Murray 1969). It winters primarily in the southern United States (Peterson 1980, 1990). Like populations of many grassland breeding birds in North America (Fretwell 1986, Igl and Johnson 1997), Le Conte's Sparrow populations exhibit numerical highs and lows depending on local moisture conditions (Peabody 1901, Stewart 1975, Knapton 1979, Zimmer 1979, Madden 1996). This observation, however, is based largely on anecdotal evidence or short-term observations. Long-term studies of Le Conte's Sparrow populations are limited. Le Conte's Sparrow is poorly represented on the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) because of small sample sizes, poor coverage in the northern portion of its breeding range, and the species' furtive behavior (Sauer et al. 1995). Moreover, dramatic fluctuations in Le Conte's Sparrow abundance tend to obscure the species' long-term population trends on the BBS (Sauer et al. 1995). In this paper we examine long-term population changes of Le Conte's Sparrows breeding in perennial grassland fields enrolled in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) on the northern Great Plains. We discuss patterns of population change of Le Conte's Sparrows associated with changes in precipitation and moisture conditions.

Studies in Avian Biology↗