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USGS2017

Black Mats, Spring-Fed Streams, and Late-Glacial-Age Recharge in the Southern Great Basin

Black mats are prominent features of the late Pleistocene and Holocene stratigraphic record in the southern Great Basin. Faunal, geochemical, and sedimentological evidence shows that the black mats formed in several microenvironments related to spring discharge, ranging from wet meadows to shallow ponds. Small land snails such as Gastrocopta tappaniana and Vertigo berryi are the most common mollusk taxa present. Semiaquatic and aquatic taxa are less abundant and include Catinellids, Fossaria parva, Gyraulus parvus, and others living today in and around perennial seeps and ponds. The ostracodes Cypridopsis okeechobi and Scottia tumida, typical of seeps and low-discharge springs today, as well as other taxa typical of springs and wetlands, are common in the black mats. Several new species that lived in the saturated subsurface also are present, but lacustrine ostracodes are absent. The ??13C values of organic matter in the black mats range from -12 to -26???, reflecting contributions of tissue from both C3 (sedges, most shrubs and trees) and C4 (saltbush, saltgrass) plants. Carbon-14 dates on the humate fraction of 55 black mats fall between 11,800 to 6300 and 2300 14C yr B.P. to modern. The total absence of mats in our sample between 6300 and 2300 14C yr B.P. likely reflects increased aridity associated with the mid-Holocene Altithermal. The oldest black mats date to 11,800-11,600 14C yr B.P., and the peak in the 14C black mat distribution falls at ???10,000 14C yr B.P. As the formation of black mats is spring related, their abundance reflects refilling of valley aquifers starting no later than 11,800 and peaking after 11,000 14C yrB.P. Reactivation of spring-fed channels shortly before 11,200 14C yr B.P. is also apparent in the stratigraphic records from the Las Vegas and Pahrump Valleys. This age distribution suggests that black mats and related spring-fed channels in part may have formed in response to Younger Dryas (YD)-age recharge in the region. However, the inception of black mat formation precedes that of the YD by at least 400 14C yr, and hydrological change is gradual, not rapid. ?? 1998 University of Washington.

Quaternary Research↗

USGS2005

Slicing up the San Francisco Bay Area: Block kinematics and fault slip rates from GPS-derived surface velocities

Observations of surface deformation allow us to determine the kinematics of faults in the San Francisco Bay Area. We present the Bay Area velocity unification (BA??VU??, "bay view"), a compilation of over 200 horizontal surface velocities computed from campaign-style and continuous Global Positioning System (GPS) observations from 1993 to 2003. We interpret this interseismic velocity field using a three-dimensional block model to determine the relative contributions of block motion, elastic strain accumulation, and shallow aseismic creep. The total relative motion between the Pacific plate and the rigid Sierra Nevada/Great Valley (SNGV) microplate is 37.9 ?? 0.6 mm yr-1 directed toward N30.4??W ?? 0.8?? at San Francisco (??2??). Fault slip rates from our preferred model are typically within the error bounds of geologic estimates but provide a better fit to geodetic data (notable right-lateral slip rates in mm yr-1: San Gregorio fault, 2.4 ?? 1.0; West Napa fault, 4.0 ?? 3.0; zone of faulting along the eastern margin of the Coast Range, 5.4 ?? 1.0; and Mount Diablo thrust, 3.9 ?? 1.0 of reverse slip and 4.0 ?? 0.2 of right-lateral strike slip). Slip on the northern Calaveras is partitioned between both the West Napa and Concord/ Green Valley fault systems. The total convergence across the Bay Area is negligible. Poles of rotation for Bay Area blocks progress systematically from the North America-Pacific to North America-SNGV poles. The resulting present-day relative motion cannot explain the strike of most Bay Area faults, but fault strike does loosely correlate with inferred plate motions at the time each fault initiated. Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS2012

Reconnaissance of contaminants in selected wastewater-treatment-plant effluent and stormwater runoff entering the Columbia River, Columbia River Basin, Washington and Oregon, 2008-10

Toxic contamination is a significant concern in the Columbia River Basin in Washington and Oregon. To help water managers and policy makers in decision making about future sampling efforts and toxic-reduction activities, a reconnaissance was done to assess contaminant concentrations directly contributed to the Columbia River through wastewater-treatment-plant (WWTP) effluent and stormwater runoff from adjacent urban environments and to evaluate instantaneous loadings to the Columbia River Basin from these inputs. Nine cities were selected in Oregon and Washington to provide diversity in physical setting, climate characteristics, and population density—Wenatchee, Richland, Umatilla, The Dalles, Hood River, Portland, Vancouver, St. Helens, and Longview. Samples were collected from a WWTP in each city and analyzed for anthropogenic organic compounds, pharmaceuticals, polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), polybrominated diphenyl ether (PBDEs [brominated flame-retardants]), organochlorine or legacy compounds, currently used pesticides, mercury, and estrogenicity. Of the 210 compounds analyzed in the WWTP-effluent samples, 112 (53 percent) were detected, and the detection rate for most compound classes was greater than 80 percent. Despite the differences in location, population, treatment type, and plant size, detection frequencies were similar for many of the compounds detected among the WWTPs. By contrast, the occurrence of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) was sporadic, and PCBs were detected at only three WWTPs. The stormwater-runoff samples were analyzed for a slightly different set of contaminants, with the focus on those expected to be related to road and land runoff—PCBs, PBDEs, organochlorine compounds, PAHs, currently used pesticides, trace elements, mercury, and oil and grease. A complex mixture of compounds was detected in stormwater runoff, with detections of 114 (58 percent) of the 195 compounds analyzed. The detection patterns and concentrations measured in the stormwater-runoff samples, however, were more heterogeneous than in the WWTP-effluent samples. This reflects differences in various factors, including suspended-sediment concentrations and known contamination sources present in some watersheds. Trace elements and PAHs, which are related to automobiles and impervious surfaces, were the most widespread compound classes detected in stormwater runoff, a typical finding in stormwater runoff in urban areas. With a better understanding of the presence of these contaminants in the environment, future work can focus on developing research to characterize the effects of these contaminants on aquatic life and prioritize toxic-reduction efforts for the Columbia River Basin.

Washington;Oregon↗

USGS2025

Uncertainty reduction for subaerial landslide-tsunami hazards

Subaerial rock slopes may generate a tsunami by rapidly moving into the water. Large uncertainty in landslide characteristics propagates into large uncertainty in tsunami hazard, making hazard assessment more difficult for land and emergency managers. Once a potentially tsunamigenic landslide is identified, it may not be clear which landslide characteristics contribute most significantly to uncertainty in the tsunami hazard. Our aim is to document the relative worth of different landslide characteristics (e.g., size, material properties) for reducing uncertainty in landslide-tsunami hazard assessments. Isolating the relative importance of specific landslide characteristics may inform prioritization of data collection and improve efficiency in understanding hazard. To accomplish this, we generated a set of 288 landslide-tsunami simulations in which we systematically varied the size and material properties of possible failure extents at the Barry Arm landslide complex in northwestern Prince William Sound, Alaska, USA. We find that for landslides smaller than the receiving waterbody, the landslide volume has the strongest effect on resulting wave characteristics and thus the highest leverage on reducing uncertainty in tsunami hazard. In contrast, for landslides substantially larger than the waterbody, the duration of rapid movement of the landslide has the highest leverage. Based on our results, we propose a classification scheme for subaerial landslides based on the relative size of the landslide and waterbody. Additionally, our results support the generation of a tsunami height transfer function between existing tide gages and a nearby coastal city. These results have direct implications for the practice of operational early warning.

Alaska↗

USGS2013

A quantitative X-ray diffraction inventory of the tephra and volcanic glass inputs into the Holocene marine sediment archives off Iceland: A contribution to V.A.S.T.

This paper re-evaluates how well quantitative x-ray diffraction (qXRD) can be used as an exploratory method of the weight percentage (wt%) of volcaniclastic sediment, and to identify tephra events in marine cores. In the widely used RockJock v6 software programme, qXRD tephra and glass standards include the rhyodacite White River tephra (Alaska), a rhyolitic tephra (Hekla-4) and the basaltic Saksunarvatn tephra. Experiments of adding known wt% of tephra to felsic bedrock samples indicated that additions ≥10 wt% are accurately detected, but reliable estimates of lesser amounts are masked by amorphous material produced by milling. Volcaniclastic inputs range between 20 and 50 wt%. Primary tephra events are identified as peaks in residual qXRD glass wt% from fourth-order polynomial fits. In cores where tephras have been identified by shard counts in the > 150 µm fraction, there is a positive correlation (validation) with peaks in the wt% glass estimated by qXRD. Geochemistry of tephra shards confirms the presence of several Hekla-sourced tephras in cores B997-317PC1 and -319PC2 on the northern Iceland shelf. In core B997-338 (north-west Iceland), there are two rhyolitic tephras separated by ca. 100 cm with uncorrected radiocarbon dates on articulated shells of around 13 000 yr B.P. These tephras may be correlatives of the Borrobol and Penifiler tephras found in Scotland. The number of Holocene tephra events per 1000 yr was estimated from qXRD on 16 cores and showed a bimodal distribution with an increased number of events in both the late and early Holocene.

Polar Research↗

USGS2011

Provenance and tectonic significance of the Palaeoproterozoic metasedimentary successions of central and nothern Madagascar

New detrital zircon U–Pb age data obtained from various quartzite units of three spatially separated supracrustal packages in central and northern Madagascar, show that these units were deposited between 1.8 and 0.8 Ga and have similar aged provenances. The distribution of detrital zircon ages indicates an overwhelming contribution of sources with ages between 2.5 and 1.8 Ga. Possible source rocks with an age of 2.5 Ga are present in abundance in the crustal segments (Antananarivo, Antongil and Masora Domains) either side of a purported Neoproterozoic suture (“Betsimisaraka Suture Zone”). Recently, possible source rocks for the 1.8 Ga age peak have been recognised in southern Madagascar. All three supracrustal successions, as well as the Archaean blocks onto which they were emplaced, are intruded by mid-Neoproterozoic magmatic suites placing a minimum age on their deposition. The similarities in detrital pattern, maximum and minimum age of deposition in the three successions, lend some support to a model in which all of Madagascar's Archaean blocks form a coherent crustal entity (the Greater Dharwar Craton), rather than an amalgamate of disparate crustal blocks brought together only during Neoproterozoic convergence. However, potential source terranes exist outside Madagascar and on either side of the Neoproterozoic sutures, so that a model including a Neoproterozoic suture in Madagascar cannot be dispelled outright.

Precambrian Research↗

USGS2001

Resolution analysis of finite fault source inversion using one- and three-dimensional Green's functions 2. Combining seismic and geodetic data

Using numerical tests for a prescribed heterogeneous earthquake slip distribution, we examine the importance of accurate Green's functions (GF) for finite fault source inversions which rely on coseismic GPS displacements and leveling line uplift alone and in combination with near-source strong ground motions. The static displacements, while sensitive to the three-dimensional (3-D) structure, are less so than seismic waveforms and thus are an important contribution, particularly when used in conjunction with waveform inversions. For numerical tests of an earthquake source and data distribution modeled after the 1994 Northridge earthquake, a joint geodetic and seismic inversion allows for reasonable recovery of the heterogeneous slip distribution on the fault. In contrast, inaccurate 3-D GFs or multiple 1-D GFs allow only partial recovery of the slip distribution given strong motion data alone. Likewise, using just the GPS and leveling line data requires significant smoothing for inversion stability, and hence, only a blurred vision of the prescribed slip is recovered. Although the half-space approximation for computing the surface static deformation field is no longer justifiable based on the high level of accuracy for current GPS data acquisition and the computed differences between 3-D and half-space surface displacements, a layered 1-D approximation to 3-D Earth structure provides adequate representation of the surface displacement field. However, even with the half-space approximation, geodetic data can provide additional slip resolution in the joint seismic and geodetic inversion provided a priori fault location and geometry are correct. Nevertheless, the sensitivity of the static displacements to the Earth structure begs caution for interpretation of surface displacements, particularly those recorded at monuments located in or near basin environments.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS1978

Factors contributing to the formation of ferromanganese nodules in Oneida Lake, New York

Oneida Lake is a large, shallow, eutrophic lake situated in the Ontario lowlands of central New York State. It contains the most concentrated deposit of freshwater ferromanganese nodules (in terms of amount per unit area) yet reported in the literature. The mineralogy and bulk chemistry of these saucer-shaped nodules are similar to the mineralogy and bulk chemistry of deep-sea ferromanganese nodules, but the nodules in Oneida Lake contain considerably lower concentrations of trace metals, especially cobalt, nickel, and copper. Budgets for iron and manganese in waters from Oneida Lake and its tributaries indicate that approximately 122 t (metric tons) of iron and 23 t of manganese are lost each year from the lake waters, presumably by incorporation into sediments and ferromanganese nodules. Estimates based on nodule abundance and age of the lake suggest that iron and manganese are being incorporated into ferromanganese nodules at rates of 13 and 22 t/yr, respectively. Most iron lost from the lake waters is apparently incorporated into sediments, which contain an average of 10 times more iron than manganese. Most manganese lost from the lake waters is apparently incorporated into ferromanganese nodules, which contain an average of 1.7 times more manganese than iron. In Oneida Lake, very high rates of phytoplankton productivity, combined with almost continuous wind mixing to the bottom, provide high-pH and high-Eh conditions in most of the lake. Algae also provide an effective means of concentrating and transporting iron and manganese and thereby aid in the extensive development of ferromanganese nodule deposits.

New York↗

USGS2019

Temporal variability in nitrate – discharge relationships in large rivers as revealed by high frequency data

Little is known about temporal variability in nitrate concentration responses to changes in discharge on intraannual time scales in large rivers. To investigate this knowledge gap, we used a six‐year data set of daily surface water nitrate concentration and discharge averaged from near‐continuous monitoring at U.S. Geological Survey gaging stations on the Connecticut, Potomac, and Mississippi Rivers, three large rivers that contribute substantial nutrient pollution to important estuaries. Interannually, a comparison of nitrate concentration‐discharge (c‐Q) relationships between a traditional discrete grab sample data set and the near‐continuous data set revealed differing c‐Q slopes, which suggests that sample frequency can impact how we ultimately characterize hydrologic systems. Intraannually, we conducted correlation analyses over 30‐day windows to isolate the strength and direction of monthly c‐Q relationships. Monthly c‐Q slopes in the Potomac were positive (enrichment/mobilization response) in summer and fall and negative (dilution response) and weakly chemostatic (nonsignificant near‐zero c‐Q slope) in winter and spring, respectively. The Connecticut displayed a dilution response year‐round, except summer when it was weakly chemostatic. Mississippi c‐Q slopes were weakly chemostatic in all seasons and showed inconsistent responses to discharge fluctuations. The c‐Q dynamics in the Potomac and Connecticut were correlated ( R > 0.3) to river temperature, flow percentile, and calendar day. Minimal correlation in the Mississippi suggests that the large basin area coupled with spatiotemporally variable anthropogenic forcings from substantial land use development created stochastic short‐term c‐Q relationships. Additional work using high‐frequency sensors across large river networks can improve our understanding of spatial source input dynamics in these natural‐human coupled systems.

Water Resources Research↗

USGS2021

Role of future reef growth on morphological response of coral reef islands to sea-level rise

Coral reefs are widely recognised for providing a natural breakwater effect that modulates erosion and flooding hazards on low‐lying sedimentary reef islands. Increased water depth across reef platforms due sea‐level rise (SLR) can compromise this breakwater effect and enhance island exposure to these hazards, but reef accretion in response to SLR may positively contribute to island resilience. Morphodynamic studies suggest that reef islands can adjust to SLR by maintaining freeboard (island crest elevation above still water level) through overwash deposition and island accretion, but the impact of different future reef accretion trajectories on the morphological response of islands remain unknown. Here we show, using a process‐based morphodynamic model, that, although reef growth significantly affects wave transformation processes and island morphology, it does not lead to decreased coastal flooding and island inundation. According to the model, reef islands evolve during SLR by attuning their elevation to the maximum wave runup and islands fronted by a growing reef platform attain lower elevations than those without reef growth, but have similar overwash regimes. The mean overwash discharge Q over across the island crest plays a key role in the ability of islands to keep up with SLR and maintain freeboard, with a Q over value of O (10 l m ‐1 s ‐1 ) separating island construction from destruction. Islands, therefore, can grow vertically to keep up with SLR via flooding and overwash if specific forcing and sediment supply conditions are met, offering hope for uninhabited and sparely populated islands. However, this physical island response will negatively impact infrastructure and assets on developed islands.

Journal of Geophysical Research--Earth Surface↗

USGS2010

The use of simulation and multiple environmental tracers to quantify groundwater flow in a shallow aquifer

Measurements of the concentrations of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), tritium, and other environmental tracers can be used to calculate recharge ages of shallow groundwater and estimate rates of groundwater movement. Numerical simulation also provides quantitative estimates of flow rates, flow paths, and mixing properties of the groundwater system. The environmental tracer techniques and the hydraulic analyses each contribute to the understanding and quantification of the flow of shallow groundwater. However, when combined, the two methods provide feedback that improves the quantification of the flow system and provides insight into the processes that are the most uncertain. A case study near Locust Grove, Maryland, is used to investigate the utility of combining groundwater age dating, based on CFCs and tritium, and hydraulic analyses using numerical simulation techniques. The results of the feedback between an advective transport model and the estimates of groundwater ages determined by the CFCs improve a quantitative description of the system by refining the system conceptualization and estimating system parameters. The plausible system developed with this feedback between the advective flow model and the CFC ages is further tested using a solute transport simulation to reproduce the observed tritium distribution in the groundwater. The solute transport simulation corroborates the plausible system developed and also indicates that, for the system under investigation with the data obtained from 0.9-m-long (3-foot-long) well screens, the hydrodynamic dispersion is negligible. Together the two methods enable a coherent explanation of the flow paths and rates of movement while indicating weaknesses in the understanding of the system that will require future data collection and conceptual refinement of the groundwater system.

Water Resources Research↗

USGS2011

Refinement and evaluation of the Massachusetts firm-yield estimator model version 2.0

The firm yield is the maximum average daily withdrawal that can be extracted from a reservoir without risk of failure during an extended drought period. Previously developed procedures for determining the firm yield of a reservoir were refined and applied to 38 reservoir systems in Massachusetts, including 25 single- and multiple-reservoir systems that were examined during previous studies and 13 additional reservoir systems. Changes to the firm-yield model include refinements to the simulation methods and input data, as well as the addition of several scenario-testing capabilities. The simulation procedure was adapted to run at a daily time step over a 44-year simulation period, and daily streamflow and meteorological data were compiled for all the reservoirs for input to the model. Another change to the model-simulation methods is the adjustment of the scaling factor used in estimating groundwater contributions to the reservoir. The scaling factor is used to convert the daily groundwater-flow rate into a volume by multiplying the rate by the length of reservoir shoreline that is hydrologically connected to the aquifer. Previous firm-yield analyses used a constant scaling factor that was estimated from the reservoir surface area at full pool. The use of a constant scaling factor caused groundwater flows during periods when the reservoir stage was very low to be overestimated. The constant groundwater scaling factor used in previous analyses was replaced with a variable scaling factor that is based on daily reservoir stage. This change reduced instability in the groundwater-flow algorithms and produced more realistic groundwater-flow contributions during periods of low storage. Uncertainty in the firm-yield model arises from many sources, including errors in input data. The sensitivity of the model to uncertainty in streamflow input data and uncertainty in the stage-storage relation was examined. A series of Monte Carlo simulations were performed on 22 reservoirs to assess the sensitivity of firm-yield estimates to errors in daily-streamflow input data. Results of the Monte Carlo simulations indicate that underestimation in the lowest stream inflows can cause firm yields to be underestimated by an average of 1 to 10 percent. Errors in the stage-storage relation can arise when the point density of bathymetric survey measurements is too low. Existing bathymetric surfaces were resampled using hypothetical transects of varying patterns and point densities in order to quantify the uncertainty in stage-storage relations. Reservoir-volume calculations and resulting firm yields were accurate to within 5 percent when point densities were greater than 20 points per acre of reservoir surface. Methods for incorporating summer water-demand-reduction scenarios into the firm-yield model were developed as well as the ability to relax the no-fail reliability criterion. Although the original firm-yield model allowed monthly reservoir releases to be specified, there have been no previous studies examining the feasibility of controlled releases for downstream flows from Massachusetts reservoirs. Two controlled-release scenarios were tested—with and without a summer water-demand-reduction scenario—for a scenario with a no-fail criterion and a scenario that allows for a 1-percent failure rate over the entire simulation period. Based on these scenarios, about one-third of the reservoir systems were able to support the flow-release scenarios at their 2000–2004 usage rates. Reservoirs with higher storage ratios (reservoir storage capacity to mean annual streamflow) and lower demand ratios (mean annual water demand to annual firm yield) were capable of higher downstream release rates. For the purposes of this research, all reservoir systems were assumed to have structures which enable controlled releases, although this assumption may not be true for many of the reservoirs studied.

Massachusetts↗

USGS2022

The thermal landscape of the Willamette River—Patterns and controls on stream temperature and implications for flow management and cold-water salmonids

Water temperature is a primary control on the health, diversity, abundance, and distribution of aquatic species, but thermal degradation resulting from anthropogenic influences on rivers is a challenge to threatened species worldwide. In the Willamette River Basin, northwestern Oregon, spring-run Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) and winter-run steelhead ( O. mykiss ) are formerly abundant cold-water-adapted species that are now protected under the Endangered Species Act. Among the challenges to the health of cold-water salmonids in the Willamette River Basin, disruptions in the seasonal patterns of stream temperature imposed by 13 large, multipurpose dams on tributaries to the Willamette River, as well as temperatures routinely in excess of regulatory limits in the Willamette River Basin, are contributing factors. To better understand controls on stream temperature, the sensitivity of stream temperature to flow augmentation as a management tool for suppressing high temperatures, and the implications for threatened salmonids, this study used a two-dimensional hydrodynamic and water-quality model (CE-QUAL-W2) to investigate spatial and temporal patterns of stream temperature in the Willamette River Basin. This study focused on the upper 160.4 river miles of the Willamette River from the confluence of the Middle Fork and Coast Fork Willamette Rivers (river mile 187.2) to Willamette Falls (river mile 26.8), three representative climate years (2011, a cool and wet year; 2015, an extremely hot and dry year; and 2016, a moderately hot and dry year), and a series of flow-augmentation scenarios. Model results show that the Willamette River upstream from Willamette Falls is divisible into four characteristic “thermal reaches” with similar thermal patterns, depending on tributary input, warming rate, and the timing of thermal response. In general, the Willamette River warms downstream during spring and summer, but patterns are complex, influenced by tributary inflows, and seasonally variable. Except in cool wet years (as illustrated by 2011), modeling suggests that adversely warm conditions for spring-run Chinook salmon are extensive from June or July through August. The thermal influence of flow augmentation from dam storage on four tributaries with U.S. Army Corps of Engineers dams varies spatially along the Willamette River, seasonally, and in magnitude, depending on a range of factors like distance from the Willamette River, the temperature of dam outflow, and the thermal template of tributary reaches controlling stream temperature adjustment to environmental heat fluxes. Modeling suggests that targeted flow management (via augmentation from dam storage) can reduce the extent and duration of thermally stressful conditions for Chinook salmon for short periods, but modeling suggests that flow augmentation is limited in its ability to fundamentally alter the “thermal landscape” (the entire range of temperature variation in a river system over space and time) of the Willamette River. While this research provides general insights into the thermal landscape of the Willamette River and its sensitivity to flow management, additional investigation into the thermal landscape of tributaries downstream from U.S. Army Corps of Engineers dams, as well as the thermal management of reservoirs, storage availability, and dam outflows, would be necessary to target specific management actions for supporting specified rearing or migration conditions for spring-run Chinook salmon and other cold-water-adapted species in the Willamette River Basin.

Oregon↗

USGS2017

Optimization of decision rules for hydroelectric operation to reduce both eel mortality and unnecessary turbine shutdown: A search for a win-win solution

Worldwide populations of freshwater eels have declined with one of the contributing causes related to mortality during passage through hydropower turbines. An inherent trade‐off underlies turbine management where the competing demand for more hydropower comes at the expense of eel survival. A win–win solution exists when an option performs better on all competing demands compared to other options. A predictive model for eel migration based on a recent telemetry study was used to develop decision rules for turbine management in the Shenandoah River system. The performance of alternative decision rules was compared to the status quo policy to search for win–win solutions. Decision rules were defined by the probability of eel movement and were evaluated by the probabilities of false positive and false negative errors. The exact value of the cut‐off probability used in the decision rule will need to be determined through negotiation between stakeholders, but a range of cut‐off probabilities resulted in a win–win situation with both reduced eel mortality and increased turbine operation relative to the current shutdown strategy. Monitoring the implementation is needed to evaluate and update the predictive model and to refine the decision rule. Although the decision is framed for the Shenandoah River system, the analytical approach could be used to develop decision rules for turbine shutdown policy in other areas.

Virginia, West Virginia↗

USGS2021

Coalescent methods reconstruct contributions of natural colonization and stocking to origins of Michigan inland Cisco (Coregonus artedi)

Fish population structure in previously glaciated regions is often influenced by natural colonization processes and human-mediated dispersal, including fish stocking. Endemic populations are of conservation interest because they may contain rare and unique genetic variation. While coregonines are native to certain Michigan inland lakes, some were stocked with fish from Great Lakes sources, calling into question the origin of extant populations. While most stocking targeted lake whitefish ( Coregonus clupeaformis ), cisco ( C. artedi ) were also stocked from the Great Lakes to inland waterbodies. We used population genetic data (microsatellite genotypes and mitochondrial (mt)DNA sequences), coalescent modeling, and approximate Bayesian computation to investigate the origins of 12 inland Michigan cisco populations. The spatial distribution of mtDNA haplotypes suggests Michigan is an introgression zone for two ancestral cisco lineages associated with separate glacial refugia. Low levels of genetic diversity and high levels of genetic divergence were observed for populations located well inland of the Great Lakes relative to populations occupying waterbodies near the Great Lakes. Estimates of recent Great Lakes gene flow ranged from 27 to 48% for populations near the Great Lakes shoreline but were substantially lower (under 8%) for populations further inland. Inland lakes with elevated recent gene flow estimates may have been recipients of stocked coregonine fry, including cisco. Low levels of genetic diversity paired with a high likelihood of endemism as indicated by strong genetic divergence and low Great Lakes population inputs suggest the analyzed cisco populations occupying southern Michigan kettle lakes are of elevated conservation interest.

Michigan↗

USGS2015

Strain accumulation across the Prince William Sound asperity, Southcentral Alaska

The surface velocities predicted by the conventional subduction model are compared to velocities measured in a GPS array (surveyed in 1993, 1995, 1997, 2000, and 2004) spanning the Prince William Sound asperity. The observed velocities in the comparison have been corrected to remove the contributions from postseismic (1964 Alaska earthquake) mantle relaxation. Except at the most seaward monument (located on Middleton Island at the seaward edge of the continental shelf, just 50 km landward of the deformation front in the Aleutian Trench), the corrected velocities qualitatively agree with those predicted by an improved, two-dimensional, back slip, subduction model in which the locked megathrust coincides with the plate interface identified by seismic refraction surveys, and the back slip rate is equal to the plate convergence rate. A better fit to the corrected velocities is furnished by either a back slip rate 20% greater than the plate convergence rate or a 30% shallower megathrust. The shallow megathrust in the latter fit may be an artifact of the uniform half-space Earth model used in the inversion. Backslip at the plate convergence rate on the megathrust mapped by refraction surveys would fit the data as well if the rigidity of the underthrust plate was twice that of the overlying plate, a rigidity contrast higher than expected. The anomalous motion at Middleton Island is attributed to continuous slip at near the plate convergence rate on a postulated, listric fault that splays off the megathrust at depth of about 12 km and outcrops on the continental slope south-southeast of Middleton Island.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS2005

Rupture dynamics with energy loss outside the slip zone

Energy loss in a fault damage zone, outside the slip zone, contributes to the fracture energy that determines rupture velocity of an earthquake. A nonelastic two-dimensional dynamic calculation is done in which the slip zone is modeled as a fault plane and material off the fault is subject to a Coulomb yield condition. In a mode 2 crack-like solution in which an abrupt uniform drop of shear traction on the fault spreads from a point, Coulomb yielding occurs on the extensional side of the fault. Plastic strain is distributed with uniform magnitude along the fault, and it has a thickness normal to the fault proportional to propagation distance. Energy loss off the fault is also proportional to propagation distance, and it can become much larger than energy loss on the fault specified by the fault constitutive relation. The slip velocity function could be produced in an equivalent elastic problem by a slip-weakening friction law with breakdown slip Dc increasing with distance. Fracture energy G and equivalent Dc will be different in ruptures with different initiation points and stress drops, so they are not constitutive properties; they are determined by the dynamic solution that arrives at a particular point. Peak slip velocity is, however, a property of a fault location. Nonelastic response can be mimicked by imposing a limit on slip velocity on a fault in an elastic medium.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS1999

Soil water retention and maximum capillary drive from saturation to oven dryness

This paper provides an alternative method to describe the water retention curve over a range of water contents from saturation to oven dryness. It makes two modifications to the standard Brooks and Corey [1964] (B-C) description, one at each end of the suction range. One expression proposed by Rossi and Nimmo [1994] is used in the high-suction range to a zero residual water content. (This Rossi-Nimmo modification to the Brooks-Corey model provides a more realistic description of the retention curve at low water contents.) Near zero suction the second modification eliminates the region where there is a change in suction with no change in water content. Tests on seven soil data sets, using three distinct analytical expressions for the high-, medium-, and low-suction ranges, show that the experimental water retention curves are well fitted by this composite procedure. The high-suction range of saturation contributes little to the maximum capillary drive, defined with a good approximation for a soil water and air system as H cM = ∫ 0 ∞ K rw dh c , where k rw is relative permeability (or conductivity) to water and h c is capillary suction, a positive quantity in unsaturated soils. As a result, the modification suggested to describe the high-suction range does not significantly affect the equivalence between Brooks-Corey (B-C) and van Genuchten [1980] parameters presented earlier. However, the shape of the retention curve near “natural saturation” has a significant impact on the value of the capillary drive. The estimate using the Brooks-Corey power law, extended to zero suction, will exceed that obtained with the new procedure by 25 to 30%. It is not possible to tell which procedure is appropriate. Tests on another data set, for which relative conductivity data are available, support the view of the authors that measurements of a retention curve coupled with a speculative curve of relative permeability as from a capillary model are not sufficient to accurately determine the (maximum) capillary drive. The capillary drive is a dynamic scalar, whereas the retention curve is of a static character. Only measurements of infiltration rates with time can determine the capillary drive with precision for a given soil.

Water Resources Research↗

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