Search USGS⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search USGS

Results for “Trends”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 181 records · Page 10Linked to original sources
USGS2007

Major Crustal Fault Zone Trends and Their Relation to Mineral Belts in the North-Central Great Basin, Nevada

The Great Basin physiographic province covers a large part of the western United States and contains one of the world's leading gold-producing areas, the Carlin Trend. In the Great Basin, many sedimentary-rock-hosted disseminated gold deposits occur along such linear mineral-occurrence trends. The distribution and genesis of these deposits is not fully understood, but most models indicate that regional tectonic structures play an important role in their spatial distribution. Over 100 magnetotelluric (MT) soundings were acquired between 1994 and 2001 by the U.S. Geological Survey to investigate crustal structures that may underlie the linear trends in north-central Nevada. MT sounding data were used to map changes in electrical resistivity as a function of depth that are related to subsurface lithologic and structural variations. Two-dimensional (2-D) resistivity modeling of the MT data reveals primarily northerly and northeasterly trending narrow 2-D conductors (1 to 30 ohm-m) extending to mid-crustal depths (5-20 km) that are interpreted to be major crustal fault zones. There are also a few westerly and northwesterly trending 2-D conductors. However, the great majority of the inferred crustal fault zones mapped using MT are perpendicular or oblique to the generally accepted trends. The correlation of strike of three crustal fault zones with the strike of the Carlin and Getchell trends and the Alligator Ridge district suggests they may have been the root fluid flow pathways that fed faults and fracture networks at shallower levels where gold precipitated in favorable host rocks. The abundant northeasterly crustal structures that do not correlate with the major trends may be structures that are open to fluid flow at the present time.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2013

Design tradeoffs for trend assessment in aquatic biological monitoring programs

Assessments of long-term (multiyear) temporal trends in biological monitoring programs are generally undertaken without an adequate understanding of the temporal variability of biological communities. When the sources and levels of variability are unknown, managers cannot make informed choices in sampling design to achieve monitoring goals in a cost-effective manner. We evaluated different trend sampling designs by estimating components of both short- and long-term variability in biological indicators of water quality in streams. Invertebrate samples were collected from 32 sites—9 urban, 6 agricultural, and 17 relatively undisturbed (reference) streams—distributed throughout the United States. Between 5 and 12 yearly samples were collected at each site during the period 1993–2008, plus 2 samples within a 10-week index period during either 2007 or 2008. These data allowed calculation of four sources of variance for invertebrate indicators: among sites, among years within sites, interaction among sites and years (site-specific annual variation), and among samples collected within an index period at a site (residual). When estimates of these variance components are known, changes to sampling design can be made to improve trend detection. Design modifications that result in the ability to detect the smallest trend with the fewest samples are, from most to least effective: (1) increasing the number of years in the sampling period (duration of the monitoring program), (2) decreasing the interval between samples, and (3) increasing the number of repeat-visit samples per year (within an index period). This order of improvement in trend detection, which achieves the greatest gain for the fewest samples, is the same whether trends are assessed at an individual site or an average trend of multiple sites. In multiple-site surveys, increasing the number of sites has an effect similar to that of decreasing the sampling interval; the benefit of adding sites is greater when a new set of different sites is selected for each sampling effort than when the same sites are sampled each time. Understanding variance components of the ecological attributes of interest can lead to more cost-effective monitoring designs to detect trends.

Alabama;Arizona;Arkansas;California;Colorado;Georg↗
USGS2000

Trends and status of flow, nutrients, and sediments for selected nontidal sites in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed, 1985-98

Data from 30 stream sites in nontidal portions of the Chesapeake Bay Watershed were analyzed to document annual nutrient and sediment loads and trends for the period 1985 through 1998 as part of an annual water-quality update for the Chesapeake Bay Program. Annual loads were estimated by use of the U.S. Geological Survey ESTIMATOR model and are available upon request. Trends were estimated by use of either linear regression, Seasonal Kendall, or Kendall-Theil tests. Trends were reported for monthly-mean flow, monthly load, flow-adjusted concentration, and flow-weighted concentration. Mean yields and median concentrations were calculated to help assess current water-quality status and to facilitate comparisons between basins. The trend in flow was upward at 12 of the 30 sites. Trends of nutrient and sediment load were upward at these same 12 sites. Trends in flow-adjusted and flow-weighted concentrations varied by species. Trends in flow-weighted concentrations were generally upward or not significant for the nitrogen species and parallel or not significant for phosphorus species. Trends in flow-adjusted concentrations were downward at nearly all sites for sediment and dissolved solids in the Susquehanna and Potomac River Basins and generally were not significant in the Virginia river basins.

Delaware;Maryl;New York;Pennsylvania;Virginia;West↗
USGS2011

Trends in lake chemistry in response to atmospheric deposition and climate in selected Class I wilderness areas in Colorado, Idaho, Utah, and Wyoming, 1993-2009

In 2010, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service, Air Resource Management, began a study to evaluate long-term trends in lake-water chemistry for 64 high-elevation lakes in selected Class I wilderness areas in Colorado, Idaho, Utah, and Wyoming during 1993 to 2009. The purpose of this report is to describe trends in the chemical composition of these high-elevation lakes. Trends in emissions, atmospheric deposition, and climate variables (air temperature and precipitation amount) are evaluated over a similar period of record to determine likely drivers of changing lake chemistry. Sulfate concentrations in precipitation decreased over the past two decades at high-elevation monitoring stations in the Rocky Mountain region. The trend in deposition chemistry is consistent with regional declines in sulfur dioxide emissions resulting from installation of emission controls at large stationary sources. Trends in nitrogen deposition were not as widespread as those for sulfate. About one-half of monitoring stations showed increases in ammonium concentrations, but few showed significant changes in nitrate concentrations. Trends in nitrogen deposition appear to be inconsistent with available emission inventories, which indicate modest declines in nitrogen emissions in the Rocky Mountain region since the mid-1990s. This discrepancy may reflect uncertainties in emission inventories or changes in atmospheric transformations of nitrogen species that may be affecting deposition processes. Analysis of long-term climate records indicates that average annual mean air temperature minimums have increased from 0.57 to 0.75 °C per decade in mountain areas of the region with warming trends being more pronounced in Colorado. Trends in annual precipitation were not evident over the period 1990 to 2006, although wetter than average years during 1995 to 1997 and drier years during 2001 to 2004 caused a notable decline in precipitation in the middle part of the record.

Colorado;Idaho;Utah;Wyoming↗
USGS2012

Spatial and temporal trends in runoff at long-term streamgages within and near the Chesapeake Bay Watershed

Long-term streamflow data within the Chesapeake Bay watershed and surrounding area were analyzed in an attempt to identify trends in streamflow. Data from 30 streamgages near and within the Chesapeake Bay watershed were selected from 1930 through 2010 for analysis. Streamflow data were converted to runoff and trend slopes in percent change per decade were calculated. Trend slopes for three runoff statistics (the 7-day minimum, the mean, and the 1-day maximum) were analyzed annually and seasonally. The slopes also were analyzed both spatially and temporally. The spatial results indicated that trend slopes in the northern half of the watershed were generally greater than those in the southern half. The temporal analysis was done by splitting the 80-year flow record into two subsets; records for 28 streamgages were analyzed for 1930 through 1969 and records for 30 streamgages were analyzed for 1970 through 2010. The mean of the data for all sites for each year were plotted so that the following datasets were analyzed: the 7-day minimum runoff for the north, the 7-day minimum runoff for the south, the mean runoff for the north, the mean runoff for the south, the 1-day maximum runoff for the north, and the 1-day maximum runoff for the south. Results indicated that the period 1930 through 1969 was statistically different from the period 1970 through 2010. For the 7-day minimum runoff and the mean runoff, the latter period had significantly higher streamflow than did the earlier period, although within those two periods no significant linear trends were identified. For the 1-day maximum runoff, no step trend or linear trend could be shown to be statistically significant for the north, although the south showed a mixture of an upward step trend accompanied by linear downtrends within the periods. In no case was a change identified that indicated an increasing rate of change over time, and no general pattern was identified of hydrologic conditions becoming "more extreme" over time.

Maryland, New York, Pennsylvania, Virginia, West V↗
USGS2017

Analysis of trends of water quality and streamflow in the Blackstone, Branch, Pawtuxet, and Pawcatuck Rivers, Massachusetts and Rhode Island, 1979 to 2015

Trends in long-term water-quality and streamflow data from six water-quality-monitoring stations within three major river basins in Massachusetts and Rhode Island that flow into Narragansett Bay and Little Narragansett Bay were evaluated for water years 1979–2015. In this study, conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Rhode Island Department of Environmental Management, the Rhode Island Water Resources Board, and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, water-quality and streamflow data were evaluated with a Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season smoothing method, which removes the effects of year-to-year variation in water-quality conditions due to variations in streamflow (discharge). Trends in annual mean, annual median, annual maximum, and annual 7-day minimum flows at four continuous streamgages were evaluated by using a time-series smoothing method for water years 1979–2015. Water quality at all monitoring stations changed over the study period. Decreasing trends in flow-normalized nutrient concentrations and loads were observed during the period at most monitoring stations for total nitrogen, nitrite plus nitrate, and total phosphorus. Average flow-normalized loads for water years 1979–2015 decreased in the Blackstone River by up to 46 percent in total nitrogen, 17 percent in nitrite plus nitrate, and 69 percent in total phosphorus. The other rivers also had decreasing flow-normalized trends in nutrient concentrations and loads, except for the Pawtuxet River, which had an increasing trend in nitrite plus nitrate. Increasing trends in flow-normalized chloride concentrations and loads were observed during the study period at all of the rivers, with increases of more than 200 percent in the Blackstone River. Small increasing trends in annual mean daily streamflow were observed in 3 of the 4 rivers, with increases of 1.2 to 11 percent; however, the trends were not significant. All 4 rivers had decreases in streamflow for the annual 7-day minimums, but only 3 of the 4 rivers had decreases that were significant (34 to 54 percent). The Branch River had decreasing annual mean daily streamflow (7.5 percent) and the largest decrease in the annual 7-day minimum streamflow. The Blackstone and Pawtuxet Rivers had the largest increases in annual maximum daily flows but had decreases in the annual 7-day minimum flows.

Massachusetts, Rhode Island↗
USGS2025

Peak streamflow trends in Montana and northern Wyoming and their relation to changes in climate, water years 1921–2020

Frequency analysis on annual peak streamflow (hereinafter, peak flow) is essential to water-resources management applications, including critical structure design (for example, bridges and culverts) and floodplain mapping. Nonstationarity is a statistical property of a peak-flow series such that the distributional properties (the mean, variance, or skew) change either gradually (monotonic trend) or abruptly (shift, step change or change point) through time. Not incorporating or accounting for observed nonstationarity into peak-flow frequency analysis might result in a poor representation of the true probability of large floods and thus misrepresent the actual flood risks to life and property. This report summarizes how hydroclimatic variability might affect the temporal and spatial distributions of peak-flow data in the State of Montana (and northern Wyoming) and is part of a larger study to document peak-flow nonstationarity and hydroclimatic changes across a nine-State region consisting of Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wisconsin. A wide range of analyses and statistical approaches are applied to document the primary mechanisms controlling floods and characterize temporal changes in hydroclimatic variables and peak flows. This study was completed in cooperation with the Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation. The purpose of this report is to characterize temporal and spatial patterns of nonstationarity in peak flows and hydroclimatology in Montana and northern Wyoming. In this evaluation, peak-flow, daily streamflow, and model-simulated gridded climatic data were examined for monotonic trends, change points, and other statistical properties that might indicate changing climatic and environmental conditions. This report includes background information on the study area, the history of U.S. Geological Survey peak-flow data collection and frequency analysis in Montana, and the review of research relating to hydroclimatic variability and change in Montana. This study might help provide a framework for addressing potential nonstationarity issues in peak-flow frequency updates that commonly are completed by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with other agencies throughout the Nation. The analytical structure of this study includes analyses of monotonic trends and change points in numerous hydroclimatic variables in assigned 30-, 50-, 75-, and 100-year analysis periods. For Montana and part of Wyoming, the 30-, 50-, 75, and 100-year analyses included 157, 70, 48, and 12 streamgages, respectively. For those streamgages, nonstationarities were analyzed in the following variables: (1) climatic variables, including annual and seasonal (winter, spring, summer, and fall) temperature and precipitation; (2) daily streamflow variables, including the annual center of volume duration, annual center of volume median, and peaks over threshold with a mean of four events per year; and (3) annual peak-flow variables, including peak-flow timing and magnitude. A likelihood approach was used to express statistical confidence and assign the nonstationarity results as likely upward or downward (highest statistical confidence), somewhat likely upward or downward (less statistical confidence), or about as likely as not (little statistical confidence; hereinafter, neutral). For the nonstationarity analyses of the climatic, daily streamflow, and peak-flow variables, the results are presented in detail and discussed with respect to statewide patterns and geographic variability. For each of the 30-, 50-, and 75-year analyses, peak-flow change-point and monotonic trend analyses were compiled for streamgages classified with likely downward or likely upward trends. For those streamgages, the associated basin characteristics and nonstationarity results for peak-flow timing, daily streamflow, and climatic variables were investigated and statistically compared to discern associations among other variables that might contribute to the peak-flow nonstationarity results. The 50- and 75-year peak-flow nonstationarities identified in this study are mostly downward, in association with mostly upward temperature and potential evapotranspiration:precipitation monotonic trends. For the 50-, 75-, and 100-year analyses, the peak-flow change points are predominantly downward and are concentrated in the 1970s and 1980s, which indicates general consistency among the longer trend periods. These findings are in association with substantial research documenting globally rising temperature and atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations that might be largely attributed to anthropogenic activities. Anthropogenic effects might represent long-term (on the order of several decades to more than a century) climate changes that might happen within highly variable natural climate fluctuations. Several paleo studies in the north-central United States have indicated that hydroclimatic extremes (that is, low- and high-streamflow conditions) before European settlement have been outside of extremes since the 1900s. Depending on the interactions of anthropogenic effects and natural climate variability, extreme high-streamflow conditions might occur in the future, even in the presence of long-term downward peak-flow trends.

Montana, Wyoming↗
USGS2002

Hydrologic trends associated with urban development for selected streams in the Puget Sound basin, western Washington

Annual streamflow statistics from 10 selected streams in the Puget Sound Basin in western Washington were analyzed to identify possible hydrologic trends associated with urban development and to evaluate the effect of record length on errors in trend analysis. The analysis used three common streamflow statistics (annual mean discharge, annual maximum discharge, and 7-day low flow) and introduced an alternative statistic (fraction of year annual mean discharge was exceeded) for assessing the hydrologic effects of urban development. Although trends were identified in each of the four statistics analyzed, trends were not consistent in any of the four statistics for all selected streams. Instead, trends in two statistics ? (1) fraction of year annual mean discharge was exceeded, and (2) annual (instantaneous) maximum discharge ? were evident in streams with the highest levels of urban development over the period of record but not in streams with the lowest levels of urban development. Trends were not consistent for either annual mean discharge or 7-day low flow in urban streams. Trends were sensitive to the period of analysis for all four statistics, but particularly for the 7-day low flow, which showed increasing and decreasing trends for 10 subsets of the period of record in some streams.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗
USGS2003

Water quality and trend analysis of Colorado-Big Thompson system reservoirs and related conveyances, 1969 through 2000

The U.S. Geological Survey, in an ongoing cooperative monitoring program with the Northern Colorado Water Conservancy District, Bureau of Reclamation, and City of Fort Collins, has collected water-quality data in north-central Colorado since 1969 in reservoirs and conveyances, such as canals and tunnels, related to the Colorado–Big Thompson Project, a water-storage, collection, and distribution system. Ongoing changes in water use among agricultural and municipal users on the eastern slope of the Rocky Mountains in Colorado, changing land use in reservoir watersheds, and other water-quality issues among Northern Colorado Water Conservancy District customers necessitated a reexamination of water-quality trends in the Colorado–Big Thompson system reservoirs and related conveyances. The sampling sites are on reservoirs, canals, and tunnels in the headwaters of the Colorado River (on the western side of the transcontinental diversion operations) and the headwaters of the Big Thompson River (on the eastern side of the transcontinental diversion operations). Carter Lake Reservoir and Horsetooth Reservoir are off-channel water-storage facilities, located in the foothills of the northern Colorado Front Range, for water supplied from the Colorado–Big Thompson Project. The length of water-quality record ranges from approximately 3 to 30 years depending on the site and the type of measurement or constituent. Changes in sampling frequency, analytical methods, and minimum reporting limits have occurred repeatedly over the period of record. The objective of this report was to complete a retrospective water-quality and trend analysis of reservoir profiles, nutrients, major ions, selected trace elements, chlorophyll- a , and hypolimnetic oxygen data from 1969 through 2000 in Lake Granby, Shadow Mountain Lake, and the Granby Pump Canal in Grand County, Colorado, and Horsetooth Reservoir, Carter Lake, Lake Estes, Alva B. Adams Tunnel, and Olympus Tunnel in Larimer County, Colorado. This report summarizes and assesses: Water-quality and field-measurement profile data collected by the U.S. Geological Survey and stored in the U.S. Geological Survey National Water Information System, Time-series trends of chemical constituents and physical properties, Trends in oxygen deficits in the hypolimnion of the reservoirs in the late summer season by the seasonal Kendall trend test method, Nutrient limitation and trophic status indicators, and Water-quality data in terms of Colorado water-quality standards. Water quality was generally acceptable for primary uses throughout the Colorado–Big Thompson system over the site periods of record, which are all within the span of 1969 to 2000. Dissolved solids and nutrient concentrations were low and typical of a forested/mountainous/crystalline bedrock hydrologic setting. Most of the more toxic trace elements were rarely detected or were found in low concentrations, due at least in part to a relative lack of ore-mineral deposits within the drainage areas of the Colorado–Big Thompson Project. Constituent concentrations consistently met water-quality standard thresholds set by the State of Colorado. Trophic-State Index Values indicated mesotrophic conditions generally prevailed at reservoirs, based on available Secchi depth, total phosphorus concentrations, and chlorophyll- a concentrations. Based on plots of time-series values and concentrations and seasonal Kendall nonparametric trends testing, dissolved solids and most major ions are decreasing at most sites. Many of the nutrient data did not meet the minimum criteria for time-series testing; but for those that did, nutrient concentrations were generally stable (no statistical trend) or decreasing (ammonia plus organic nitrogen and total phosphorus). Iron and manganese concentrations were stable or decreasing at most sites that met testing criteria. Chlorophyll- a data were only collected for 11 years but generally indicated quasi-stable or downward temporal trends.

Colorado↗
USGS2003

Occurrence, trends, and sources in particle-associated contaminants in selected streams and lakes in Fort Worth, Texas

Several lakes and stream segments in Fort Worth, Texas, have fish consumption bans because of elevated levels of chlordane, dieldrin, DDE, and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). This study was undertaken to evaluate current loading, trends, and sources in these long-banned contaminants and other particle-associated contaminants commonly found in urban areas. Sampling included suspended sediments at 11 sites in streams and bottom-sediment cores in three lakes. Samples were analyzed for chlorinated hydrocarbons, major and trace elements, and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). All four legacy pollutants responsible for fish consumption bans were detected frequently. Concentrations of chlordane, lead, and PAHs most frequently exceeded sediment-quality guidelines. Trends in DDE and PCBs since the 1960s generally are decreasing; and trends in chlordane are mixed with a decreasing trend in Lake Como, no trend in Echo Lake, and an increasing trend in Fosdic Lake. All significant trends in trace elements are decreasing, and most significant trends in PAHs are increasing. Sedimentation surveys were conducted on each of the three lakes and used in combination with sediment core data to compute sediment mass balances for the lakes, to estimate long-term-average loads and yields of sediment, and to estimate recent loads and yields of selected contaminants. Concentrations of most trace elements in suspended sediments were similar to those at the tops of cores, but concentrations of many hydrophobic organic contaminants were two to three times larger. As a result, for these fluvial systems, sediment cores probably provide a historical record of trace element contamination but could underestimate historical concentrations of organic contaminants. However, down-core profiles suggest that relative concentration histories are preserved in these sediment cores for many organic contaminants (such as chlordane and total DDT) but not for all (such as dieldrin). Percent urban land use correlates strongly with selected contaminant concentrations in sediments. Organochlorine pesticides had significant correlations to residential land use, whereas PCBs, cadmium, lead, zinc, and PAHs more often correlate significantly with commercial and industrial land uses, which suggests different urban sources for different contaminants. The amount of enrichment in these contaminants associated with urban land use predicted from regression equations, expressed as the ratio of concentrations predicted for 100 percent urban to 30 percent urban, ranges from 3.6 to 6.9 for PCBs and heavy metals to about 15 for chlordane, total DDT, and PAHs. These data indicate that urbanization is having a substantial negative effect on sediment and water quality and that legacy pollutants are being actively transported to streams and lakes 13 to 30 years after their use was restricted or banned. They further suggest that fish in the lakes and these water bodies will continue to be exposed to legacy pollutants in sediment for many years to come.

Texas↗
USGS2002

Trends in Streamflow, River Ice, and Snowpack for Coastal River Basins in Maine During the 20th Century

Trends over the 20th Century were examined in streamflow, river ice, and snowpack for coastal river basins in Maine. Trends over time were tested in the timing and magnitude of seasonal river flows, the occurrence and duration of river ice, and changes in snowpack depth, equivalent water content, and density. Significant trends toward earlier spring peak flow and earlier center-of-volume runoff dates were found in the extended streamflow record spanning 1906-21 and 1929-2000. Only one of the six coastal rivers in the study analyzed for trends in cumulative runoff had a significant change in total annual runoff volume. Last spring river-ice-off dates at most coastal streamflow-gaging stations examined are trending to earlier dates. Trends in later fall initial onset of ice also are evident, although these trends are significant at fewer stations than that observed for ice-off dates. Later ice-on dates in the fall and (or) earlier ice-off dates in the spring contribute to a statistically significant decrease over time in the total number of days of ice occurrence at most gaging stations on coastal rivers in Maine. The longest, most complete snow records in coastal Maine indicate an increase in snow density for the March 1 snow-survey date during the last 60 years. The historical trends in streamflow, ice, and snow are all consistent with an earlier onset of hydrologic spring conditions in coastal Maine.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗
USGS1985

Trend analysis of weekly acid rain data, 1978-83

There are 19 stations in the National Atmospheric Deposition Program which operated over the period 1978-83 and were subsequently incorporated into the National Trends Network in 1983. The precipitation chemistry data for these stations for this period were analyzed for trend, spatial correlation, seasonality, and relationship to precipitation volume. The intent of the analysis was to provide insights on the sources of variation in precipitation chemistry and to attempt to ascertain what statistical procedures may be most useful for ongoing analysis of the National Trends Network data. The Seasonal Kendall test was used for detection of trends in raw concentrations of dissolved constituents, pH and specific conductance, and residuals of these parameters from regression analysis. Forty-one percent of the trends detected in the raw concentrations were downtrends, 4 percent were uptrends, and 55 percent showed no trends at a = 0.2. At a more restrictive significance level of a = 0.05, 24 percent of the trends detected were downtrends, 2 percent were uptrends, and 74 percent showed no trends. The two constituents of greatest interest in terms of human generated emissions and environmental effects, sulfate and nitrate, showed only downtrends, and sulfate showed the largest decreases in concentration per year of all the ions tested.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗
USGS1999

Temporal trends of bulk precipitation and stream water chemistry (1977-1997) in a small forested area, Krusne hory, northern Bohemia, Czech Republic

The Krusne hory (Erzgebirge or Ore Mountains) has been heavily affected by high atmospheric pollutant deposition caused by fossil fuel combustion in an adjacent Tertiary coal basin. Long-term routine sampling of bulk precipitation (1977-1996) and stream water (1977-1998) in a forested area on the south-eastern slope of the mountains were used to evaluate trends and patterns in solute concentration and flux with respect to controlling processes. From 1977 to 1996, the annual volume-weighted Ca 2+ and SO4 2- concentrations decreased in bulk precipitation. However, after 1989, when a pronounced and continuous decrease occurred in coal production, annual volume-weighted concentrations decreased for most solutes, except H+. The concentration decreases were marked, with 1996 levels at or below 50% of those in 1989. The lack of a trend in H + is attributed to similar decreases in both acid anions and neutralizing base cations. Stream water concentrations of most solutes, i.e. H + , Ca 2+ , Mg 2+ , SO4 2- and NO 3- , were highest at the onset of sampling in 1977, decreased markedly from 1977 to 1983 and decreased more gradually from 1983 to 1998. The spruce forest die-back and removal reduced dry deposition of these solutes by reducing the filtering action, which was provided by the forest canopy. A notable decrease in stream water Ca 2+ concentrations occurred after 1995 and may be due to the depletion of Ca 2+ , which was provided by catchment liming in 1986, 1988 and 1989. Solute flux trends in bulk atmospheric deposition and stream water generally were not significant and the lack of trend is attributed to the large interannual variability in precipitation quantity and runoff, respectively. All solutes except Na + varied seasonally. The average seasonal concentrations varied between the solutes, but for most solutes were highest in winter and spring and lowest in summer, correlating with the seasonal trend and runoff. For Ca 2+ , Mg 2+ and SO 4 2- , the concentration minimum occurs in September and the maximum occurs in February or March, correlating with the seasonal baseflow. These solutes are primarily controlled by the contribution of soil water and groundwater to stream flow. During snowmelt, the meltwater generally causes concentrations to decrease as soil water and groundwater are diluted. For NO3, average minimum concentrations occur in August at the end of the growing season concurrent with the lowest stream flow, and the maximum occurs in February and March with high stream flow during snowmelt. Seasonal stream water NO3- concentration variations are large compared with the long-term decrease.The Krusne hory (Erzgebirge or Ore Mountains) has been heavily affected by high atmospheric pollutant deposition caused by fossil fuel combustion in an adjacent Tertiary coal basin. Long-term routine sampling of bulk precipitation (1977-1996) and stream water (1977-1998) in a forested area on the south-eastern slope of the mountains were used to evaluate trends and patterns in solute concentration and flux with respect to controlling processes. From 1977 to 1996, the annual volume-weighted Ca2+ and SO42- concentrations decreased in bulk precipitation. However, after 1989, when a pronounced and continuous decrease occurred in coal production, annual volume-weighted concentrations decreased for most solutes, except H+. The concentration decreases were marked, with 1996 levels at or below 50% of those in 1989. The lack of a trend in H+ is attributed to similar decreases in both acid anions and neutralizing base cations. Stream water concentrations of most solutes, i.e. H + , Ca 2+ , Mg 2+ , SO 4 2- and NO 3- , were highest at the onset of sampling in 1977, decreased markedly from 1977 to 1983 and decreased more gradually from 1983 to 1998. The spruce forest die-back and removal reduced dry deposition of these solutes by reducing the filtering action, which was provided by the forest canopy. A notable decrease in stream water Ca2+ concentrations occurred after 1995 an

Hydrological Processes↗
USGS2022

Integrating distance sampling survey data with population indices to separate trends in abundance and temporary immigration

Managers rely on accurate estimators of wildlife abundance and trends for management decisions. Despite the focus of contemporary wildlife science on developing methods to improve inference from wildlife surveys, legacy datasets often rely on index counts that lack information about the detection process. Data integration can be a useful tool for combining index counts with data collected under more rigorous designs (i.e., designs that account for the detection process), but care is required when datasets represent different population processes or are mismatched in space and time. This can be particularly problematic in cases where animals aggregate in response to a spatially or temporally limited resource because individuals may temporarily immigrate from outside the study area and be included in the abundance index. Abundance indices based on brown bear ( Ursus arctos ) feeding aggregations within coastal meadows in early summer in Lake Clark National Park and Preserve, Alaska, USA, are one such example. These indices reflect the target population (brown bears residing within the park) and temporary immigrants (i.e., bears drawn from outside the park boundary). To properly account for the effects of temporary immigration, we integrated the index data with abundance data collected via park-wide distance sampling surveys, the latter of which properly addressed the detection process. By assuming that the distance data provide inference on abundance and the index counts represent some combination of abundance and temporary immigration processes, we were able to decompose the relative contribution of each to overall trend. We estimated that the density of brown bears within our study area was 38–54 adults/1,000 km 2 during 2003–2019 and that abundance increased at a rate of approximately 1.4%/year. The contribution of temporary immigrants to overall trend in the index was low, so we created 3 hypothetical scenarios to more fully demonstrate how the integrated approach could be useful in situations where the composite trend in meadow counts may obscure trends in abundance (e.g., opposing trends in abundance and temporary immigration). Our work represents a conceptual advance supporting the integration of legacy index data with more rigorous data streams and is broadly applicable in cases where trends in index values may represent a mixture of population processes.

Alaska↗
USGS2013

Golden eagle population trends in the western United States: 1968-2010

In 2009, the United States Fish and Wildlife Service promulgated permit regulations for the unintentional lethal take (anthropogenic mortality) and disturbance of golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos). Accurate population trend and size information for golden eagles are needed so agency biologists can make informed decisions when eagle take permits are requested. To address this need with available data, we used a log-linear hierarchical model to average data from a late-summer aerial-line-transect distance-sampling survey (WGES) of golden eagles in the United States portions of Bird Conservation Region (BCR) 9 (Great Basin), BCR 10 (Northern Rockies), BCR 16 (Southern Rockies/Colorado Plateau), and BCR 17 (Badlands and Prairies) from 2006 to 2010 with late-spring, early summer Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) data for the same BCRs and years to estimate summer golden eagle population size and trends in these BCRs. We used the ratio of the density estimates from the WGES to the BBS index to calculate a BCR-specific adjustment factor that scaled the BBS index (i.e., birds per route) to a density estimate. Our results indicated golden eagle populations were generally stable from 2006 to 2010 in the 4 BCRs, with an estimated average rate of population change of −0.41% (95% credible interval [CI]: −4.17% to 3.40%) per year. For the 4 BCRs and years, we estimated annual golden eagle population size to range from 28,220 (95% CI: 23,250–35,110) in 2007 to 26,490 (95% CI: 21,760–32,680) in 2008. We found a general correspondence in trends between WGES and BBS data for these 4 BCRs, which suggested BBS data were providing useful trend information. We used the overall adjustment factor calculated from the 4 BCRs and years to scale BBS golden eagle counts from 1968 to 2005 for the 4 BCRs and for 1968 to 2010 for the 8 other BCRs (without WGES data) to estimate golden eagle population size and trends across the western United States for the period 1968 to 2010. In general, we noted slightly declining trends in southern BCRs and slightly increasing trends in northern BCRs. However, we estimated the average rate of golden eagle population change across all 12 BCRs for the period 1968–2010 as +0.40% per year (95% CI = −0.27% to 1.00%), suggesting a stable population. We also estimated the average rate of population change for the period 1990–2010 was +0.5% per year (95% CI = −0.33% to 1.3%). Our annual estimates of population size for the most recent decade range from 31,370 (95% CI: 25,450–39,310) in 2004 to 33,460 (95% CI: 27,380–41,710) in 2007. Our results clarify that golden eagles are not declining widely in the western United States. © 2013 The Wildlife Society.

Arizona;California;Colorado;Idaho;Iowa;Kansas;Minn↗
USGS2026

Abundance, trends, and challenges facing mountain goats throughout their North American distribution

Recent declines among some mountain goat ( Oreamnos americanus ) populations have heightened concern about their current status and ability to cope with future challenges. We conducted a range-wide assessment of the status of mountain goats across their distribution to understand the extent and patterns of change in recent years. We queried states, provinces, National Parks, and Indigenous governments with territories and reserves containing local wild populations, requesting updates on estimated mountain goat abundance and trends over time, as well as qualitative assessments of conservation challenges. We supplemented the questionnaires with existing literature (both published and available from agency websites). We subjected a subset of mountain goat population time−series to exploratory meta-analyses, examining covariates associated with rates of change. Respondents identified 203 units within which estimates were documented, a majority of which were raw counts from aircraft; fewer jurisdictions used site-specific sightability models, mark-recapture statistics, or other approaches to account for imperfect detection. Jurisdictions updated unit-specific estimates on average every 4.0 years (SD = 2.9, Min–Max = 1–24 years). Among 152 qualitative estimates of trends of native populations, 3% were reported as having increased substantially, 10% as having increased slightly, 24% as having declined slightly, and 14% as having declined substantially (49% reported either no detectable trend or insufficient data to identify a trend). Among 133 estimates of trends of introduced or pioneering populations, 5% increased substantially, 24% increased slightly, 20% declined slightly, and 11% declined substantially (40% reported no detectable trend). Jurisdiction-wide abundance estimates were lower than those previously published in all jurisdictions except Colorado and Oregon, and in Alaska, where trends were unclear. Intrinsic rates of increase ( r ) were positively associated with the population being introduced or pioneering, negatively associated with heavy snow and, to a lesser extent, with drought, but were not associated with abundance or presence of hunter harvest. Existing evidence suggested that many local populations, especially native populations, have declined, but understanding of specific causes has been constrained by limited monitoring capacity. Greater spatiotemporal monitoring effort and detailed studies would inform appropriate strategies to address threats and future challenges to mountain goats.

Wildlife Society Bulletin↗
USGS1999

Comparison of temporal trends in ambient and compliance trace element and PCB data in pool 2 of the Mississippi River, USA, 1985-1995

The Intergovernmental Task Force on Monitoring has suggested studies on ambient (in-stream) and compliance (wastewater) data to determine if monitoring can be reduced locally or nationally. The similarity in temporal trends between retrospective ambient and compliance water-quality data collected from Pool 2 of the Mississippi River, USA, was determined for 1985–1995. Constituents studied included the following trace elements: arsenic (As), cadmium (Cd), chromium (Cr), hexavalent chromium (Cr61), copper (Cu), lead (Pb), mercury (Hg), nickel (Ni), selenium (Se), zinc (Zn), and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). Water-column, bed-sediment, and fish-tissue (fillets) data collected by five government agencies comprised the ambient data set; effluent data from five registered facilities comprised the compliance data set. The nonparametric MannKendall trend test indicated that 33% of temporal trends in all data were statistically significant (P , 0.05). Possible reasons for this were low sample sizes, and a high percentage of samples below the analytical detection limit. Trends in compliance data were more distinct; most trace elements decreased significantly, probably due to improvements in wastewater treatment. Seven trace elements (Cr, Cd, Cu, Pb, Hg, Ni, and Zn) had statistically significant decreases in wastewater and portions of either or both ambient water and bed sediment. No trends were found in fish tissue. Inconsistency in trends between ambient and compliance data were often found for individual constituents, making overall similarity between the data sets difficult to determine. Logistical differences in monitoring programs, such as varying field and laboratory methods among agencies, made it difficult to assess ambient temporal trends.

Minnesota↗
USGS2010

Trends in groundwater levels in wells in the active management areas of Arizona, USA

In 1980, the Arizona legislature passed the Groundwater Management Act (GMA), creating the active management areas (AMAs) to protect shared groundwater resources and to control severe overdrafts occurring in many parts of the state. With the 30-year anniversary of the GMA approaching, this article addresses the question: Have there been notable changes in the trends in observed groundwater levels in the AMAs from before enactment of the GMA until present? New tools developed for the US Geological Survey’s National Water Availability and Use Pilot Program are used to analyze and present trends in observed groundwater level data. Trends in groundwater levels in the AMAs were investigated for 10-year time periods from 1970 through 1999 and an 9-year period from 2000–2008. Results indicate that the number of wells with rising trends in water levels increased and the number of wells with falling trends in water levels decreased during the early decades after passage of the GMA in the most-populated Phoenix and heavily agricultural Pinal AMAs. However, these trends in water levels are reversed during the 1995–2004 time period. The value of trend analyses would be improved by consistent groundwater-level monitoring in both developed and undeveloped areas of the region.

Arizona↗