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USGS2008

Economic decision making and the application of nonparametric prediction models

Sustained increases in energy prices have focused attention on gas resources in low-permeability shale or in coals that were previously considered economically marginal. Daily well deliverability is often relatively small, although the estimates of the total volumes of recoverable resources in these settings are often large. Planning and development decisions for extraction of such resources must be areawide because profitable extraction requires optimization of scale economies to minimize costs and reduce risk. For an individual firm, the decision to enter such plays depends on reconnaissance-level estimates of regional recoverable resources and on cost estimates to develop untested areas. This paper shows how simple nonparametric local regression models, used to predict technically recoverable resources at untested sites, can be combined with economic models to compute regional-scale cost functions. The context of the worked example is the Devonian Antrim-shale gas play in the Michigan basin. One finding relates to selection of the resource prediction model to be used with economic models. Models chosen because they can best predict aggregate volume over larger areas (many hundreds of sites) smooth out granularity in the distribution of predicted volumes at individual sites. This loss of detail affects the representation of economic cost functions and may affect economic decisions. Second, because some analysts consider unconventional resources to be ubiquitous, the selection and order of specific drilling sites may, in practice, be determined arbitrarily by extraneous factors. The analysis shows a 15-20% gain in gas volume when these simple models are applied to order drilling prospects strategically rather than to choose drilling locations randomly. Copyright ?? 2008 Society of Petroleum Engineers.

SPE Reservoir Evaluation and Engineering↗

USGS1954

U.S. Geological Survey Trace Elements and related reports through 1953

This report combines and brings up-to-date the information previously given in Trace Elements Investigations Report 325, "Numerical list of U.S. Geological Survey Trace Elements Reports to April 30, 1953," and Trace Elements Investigations Report 301, "Topical index and bibliography of U.S. Geological Survey Trace Elements and related reports." Part I is a numerical list of U.S. Geological Survey Trace Elements Investigations and Memorandum reports. It supersedes TEI-325. This part lists not only reports (followed by a date) that have been transmitted to the U.S. Atomic Energy Commission, but also reports in preparation (followed by an asterisk) for which tentative titles were available on December 31, 1953. Reports that have been published are indicated by the abbreviation of the medium of publication. (See also part II.) Part II is a reference guide to Trace Elements and related reports that are available to the public; this part supersedes Part 2 of the TEI-301 (published as Geological survey Circular 281). These reports are grouped according to the type of publication or release. Abstracts published in Nuclear Science Abstracts are not included in Part II, although certain TEI and TEM reports, the abstracts of which have been published in NSA, are so indicated in Part I. Publications in process on December 31, 1953, are designated by an asterisk. Part III is a finding list of states, areas, and subjects. It is based on information derived mostly from the titles of reports and, where titles are of a general nature, from a cursory review of the reports. This list is not a complete index of the information given in Trace Elements and related reports, but is designed to find subjects of major interest. Because of the numerous entries for Colorado and Utah, information has been listed by counties and, where possible, by subject under these states. Other states have county listings only if a county is included in the title of a report; otherwise, areas may be listed separately under the state. Major subjects are listed separately in the index and also where appropriate under states. Analytical methods and subjects related to analytical research are listed under Analytical Methods and Research, but not separately throughout the index. Most mineralogic studies are included under the heading Mineralogy, but are not necessarily listed according to location. Part IV is a finding list of authors. The words “with” and “and” are used to indicate seniority of authorship. For example, a listing of Jones and Brown indicates that Jones is the senior author. A listing of Jones with Brown indicates that Brown is the senior author. In both parts III and IV all Trace Elements reports are listed, as well as other related reports that have not been issued as Trace Elements reports. The following standard abbreviations have been used: TEI, Trace Elements Investigations report; TEM, Trace Elements Memorandum report; P, Professional Paper; B, Bulletin; C, Circular; J, Journal; OF, open file; TIS, Technical Information Service release; NSA, Nuclear Science Abstracts; QM, Quadrangle Map Series; and OM, Oil and Gas map or Mineral Investigations map or report.

Trace Elements Investigations↗

USGS2011

Final report on the Seventh International Comparison of Absolute Gravimeters (ICAG 2005)

The Bureau International des Poids et Mesures (BIPM), Sevres, France, hosted the 7th International Comparison of Absolute Gravimeters (ICAG) and the associated Relative Gravity Campaign (RGC) from August to September 2005.;ICAG 2005 was prepared and performed as a metrological pilot study, which aimed:;(1) To determine the gravity comparison reference values;;(2) To determine the offsets of the absolute gravimeters; and;(3) As a pilot study to accumulate experience for the CIPM Key Comparisons.;This document presents a complete and extensive review of the technical protocol and data processing procedures. The 1st ICAG-RGC comparison was held at the BIPM in 1980-1981 and since then meetings have been organized every 4 years.;In this paper, we present an overview of how the meeting was organized, the conditions of BIPM gravimetric sites, technical specifications, data processing strategy and an analysis of the final results. This 7th ICAG final report supersedes all previously published reports.;Readings were obtained from participating instruments, 19 absolute gravimeters and 15 relative gravimeters. Precise levelling measurements were carried out and all measurements were performed on the BIPM micro-gravity network which was specifically designed for the comparison.

Metrologia↗

USGS2024

Evaluating the reliability of environmental concentration data to characterize exposure in environmental risk assessments

Environmental risk assessments often rely on measured concentrations in environmental matrices to characterize exposure of the population of interest—typically, humans, aquatic biota, or other wildlife. Yet, there is limited guidance available on how to report and evaluate exposure datasets for reliability and relevance, despite their importance to regulatory decision-making. This paper is the second of a four-paper series detailing the outcomes of a Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry Technical Workshop that has developed Criteria for Reporting and Evaluating Exposure Datasets (CREED). It presents specific criteria to systematically evaluate the reliability of environmental exposure datasets. These criteria can help risk assessors understand and characterize uncertainties when existing data are used in various types of assessments and can serve as guidance on best practice for the reporting of data for data generators (to maximize utility of their datasets). Although most reliability criteria are universal, some practices may need to be evaluated considering the purpose of the assessment. Reliability refers to the inherent quality of the dataset and evaluation criteria address the identification of analytes, study sites, environmental matrices, sampling dates, sample collection methods, analytical method performance, data handling or aggregation, treatment of censored data, and generation of summary statistics. Each criterion is evaluated as “fully met,” “partly met,” “not met or inappropriate,” “not reported,” or “not applicable” for the dataset being reviewed. The evaluation concludes with a scheme for scoring the dataset as reliable with or without restrictions, not reliable, or not assignable, and is demonstrated with three case studies representing both organic and inorganic constituents, and different study designs and assessment purposes. Reliability evaluation can be used in conjunction with relevance evaluation (assessed separately) to determine the extent to which environmental monitoring datasets are “fit for purpose,” that is, suitable for use in various types of assessments. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2024;00:1–23. © 2024 Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC). This article has been contributed to by U.S. Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA.

Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management↗

USGS1983

Hydrologic and geologic aspects of waste management and disposal; a bibliography of publications by U.S. Geological Survey authors, 1950-81

References to more than 550 reports, articles, and maps are listed alphabetically by author and are indexed by subject. The subject index includes geographic-area terms. Citations from 69 series are included; series are listed separately. The publications listed report the results of U.S. Geological Survey research and field projects throughout the Nation concerning earth-science aspects of waste management and disposal. They include organic, inorganic, and radioactive wastes and related topics such as mathematical models of solute transport. Most of the references are to (1) Geological Survey report series such as Water-Supply Papers, Professional Papers, Bulletins, Circulars, Water-Resources Investigations, and Open-File Reports, (2) technical journals of professional organizations, or (3) reports by other Federal and State agencies.

Circular↗

USGS1976

Summary appraisals of the nation's ground-water resources–Texas-Gulf region

Ground water in the Texas-Gulf Region is a large and important resource that can provide a more significant percentage of the total water supply of the region. Total water requirements within the region are projected to rise sharply from 14 million acre-feet (17 cubic kilometres) in 1970 to nearly 26 million acre-feet (32 cubic kilometres) in 2020. About half of the water used in 1970 was ground water. An estimated total of 1.04 billion acre-feet (1,280 cubic kilometres) of recoverable water containing less than 3,000 milligrams per litre dissolved solids is stored above a depth of 400 feet (122 metres) in the aquifers of the region. In addition, part of an estimated 3.28 billion acre-feet (4,040 cubic kilometres) of water in storage below 400 feet (122 metres) is recoverable. Although not all of the ground water in storage is recoverable, a significant amount is available for development; and an enormous quantity is accessible should occasions prompt its use on a time-limited basis. The total steady-state yield (amount of water that approximates the maximum perennial replenishment from precipitation) of the region's aquifers is about 4.6 million acre-feet (5.7 cubic kilometres) annually, or about 2.3 times the ground-water usage in 1970 if the large mining draft on the High Plains is not considered as part of the total steady-state yield. Because of the large quantity of recoverable groundwater in storage, the steady-state yield can be augmented for a very long time on a "deferred" basis, whereby the economic use of the water that is withdrawn from storage in excess of the steady-state yield may result in a strengthened economy. An important goal in programs for meeting future water needs should be to identify the full potential of the available ground-water resources. The subsurface reservoirs may be utilized not only as sources of fresh and treatable water, but as storage facilities for other freshwater supplies and as possible sources of geothermal energy. Some saline-water reservoirs may be suitable for liquid-waste storage or disposal. Large-scale and unregulated ground-water pumping may result in hydrologic problems such as declining water levels, streamflow depletion, and land-surface subsidence; but studies on proper development of the ground-water reservoirs could provide solutions to many of the problems. Water rights and other legal concepts should be based on sound hydrologic principles to assist development of water resources in an orderly and efficient manner. Because significant amounts of ground water are available, the opportunities for expanded and conjunctive use of ground water and surface water should be considered in regional plans for water development and conservation. The complexities of water management and the difficulties of achieving an integrated system of total-water management will require additional technical information.

Louisiana, New Mexico, Texas↗

USGS2001

Geologic coal assessment: The interface with economics

Geologic resource assessments describe the location, general characteristics, and estimated volumes of resources, whether in situ or technically recoverable. Such compilations are only an initial step in economic resource evaluation. This paper identifies, by examples from the Illinois and Appalachian basins, the salient features of a geologic assessment that assure its usefulness to downstream economic analysis. Assessments should be in sufficient detail to allocate resources to production units (mines or wells). Coal assessments should include the spatial distribution of coal bed characteristics and the ability to allocate parts of the resource to specific mining technologies. For coal bed gas assessment, the production well recoveries and well deliverability characteristics must be preserved and the risk structure should be specified so dryholes and noncommercial well costs are recovered by commercially successful wells.

Natural Resources Research↗

USGS2013

Caveats on tomographic images

Geological and geodynamic models of the mantle often rely on joint interpretations of published seismic tomography images and petrological/geochemical data. This approach tends to neglect the fundamental limitations of, and uncertainties in, seismic tomography results. These limitations and uncertainties involve theory, correcting for the crust, the lack of rays throughout much of the mantle, the difficulty in obtaining the true strength of anomalies, choice of what background model to subtract to reveal anomalies, and what cross-sections to select for publication. The aim of this review is to provide a relatively non-technical summary of the most important of these problems, collected together in a single paper, and presented in a form accessible to non-seismologists. Appreciation of these issues is essential if final geodynamic models are to be robust, and required by the scientific observations.

Terra Nova↗

USGS2002

Bibliography on the occurrence and intrusion of saltwater in aquifers along the Atlantic Coast of the United States

Freshwater aquifers along the Atlantic coast of the United States are vulnerable to the intrusion of saltwater from saline waters that bound the aquifers along their seaward margins. Incidences of saltwater intrusion have been documented along the Atlantic coast for more than 100 years. This report provides a bibliography of published literature relating to the occurrence and intrusion of saltwater along the Atlantic coast of the United States, including all of the coastal States from Maine to Florida (including the coast of Florida along the Gulf of Mexico). The bibliography contains 549 references that date from 1896 to 2001. The bibliography contains references to books, journal articles, and government and other technical reports and maps that could be readily obtained through a scientific library. Conference papers and abstracts, unpublished manuscripts, publications in press, newspaper articles, consulting reports, and reports prepared by local or regional water companies or water districts are omitted from the bibliography.

Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Maine, Ma↗

USGS2021

Leveraging existing technology: Developing a trusted digital repository for the U.S. Geological Survey

As Federal Government agencies in the United States pivot to increase access to scientific data (Sheehan, 2016), the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has made substantial progress (Kriesberg et al., 2017). USGS authors are required to make federally funded data publicly available in an approved data repository (USGS, 2016b). This type of public data product, known as a USGS data release, serves as a method for publishing reviewed and approved data. In this paper, we present major milestones in the approach the USGS took to transition an existing technology platform to a Trusted Digital Repository. We describe both the technical and the non-technical actions that contributed to a successful outcome.We highlight how initial workflows revealed patterns that were later automated, and the ways in which assessments and user feedback influenced design and implementation. The paper concludes with lessons learned, such as the importance of a community of practice, application programming interface (API)-driven technologies, iterative development, and user-centered design. This paper is intended to offer a potential roadmap for organizations pursuing similar goals.

International Journal of Digital Curation↗

USGS2000

Gap analysis: Concepts, methods, and recent results

Rapid progress is being made in the conceptual, technical, and organizational requirements for generating synoptic multi-scale views of the earth's surface and its biological content. Using the spatially comprehensive data that are now available, researchers, land managers, and land-use planners can, for the first time, quantitatively place landscape units - from general categories such as 'Forests' or 'Cold-Deciduous Shrubland Formation' to more categories such as 'Picea glauca-Abies balsamea-Populus spp. Forest Alliance' - in their large-area contexts. The National Gap Analysis Program (GAP) has developed the technical and organizational capabilities necessary for the regular production and analysis of such information. This paper provides a brief overview of concepts and methods as well as some recent results from the GAP projects. Clearly, new frameworks for biogeographic information and organizational cooperation are needed if we are to have any hope of documenting the full range of species occurrences and ecological processes in ways meaningful to their management. The GAP experience provides one model for achieving these new frameworks.

Landscape Ecology↗

USGS1996

Joint US Geological Survey, US Nuclear Regulatory Commission workshop on research related to low-level radioactive waste disposal, May 4-6, 1993, National Center, Reston, Virginia; Proceedings

This report contains papers presented at the "Joint U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Technical Workshop on Research Related to Low-Level Radioactive Waste (LLW) Disposal" that was held at the USGS National Center Auditorium, Reston, Virginia, May 4-6, 1993. The objective of the workshop was to provide a forum for exchange of information, ideas, and technology in the geosciences dealing with LLW disposal. This workshop was the first joint activity under the Memorandum of Understanding between the USGS and NRC's Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research signed in April 1992. Participants included invited speakers from the USGS, NRC technical contractors (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) National Laboratories and universities) and NRC staff for presentation of research study results related to LLW disposal. Also in attendance were scientists from the DOE, DOE National Laboratories, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, State developmental and regulatory agencies involved in LLW disposal facility siting and licensing, Atomic Energy Canada Limited (AECL), private industry, Agricultural Research Service, universities, USGS and NRC.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

USGS2021

Multi-period response spectra

Multi-period response spectra (MPRS) are incorporated in the development of seismic design ground motions in the 2020 edition of the NEHRP Recommended Seismic Provisions for New Buildings and Other Structures (2020 NEHRP Provisions) and are approved for adoption in the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) Standard, Minimum Design Loads and Associated Criteria for Buildings and Other Structures (ASCE/SEI 7-22). MPRS are incorporated in these design regulations because it was discovered that the standard spectral shape based on two periods and one reference site class was substantially understating spectral response in moderately long period structures located on soft soil sites where ground motion hazard is dominated by large magnitude events. These are the motions that are relevant to tall buildings in the Los Angeles region and of interest to the Los Angeles Tall Buildings Seismic Design Council (LATBSDC). The MPRS incorporation updated Chapters 11, 20, 21, and 22 of the 2020 NEHRP Provisions (a.k.a. FEMA P-2082); changes are described in detail in the commentary of FEMA P-2082. The MPRS also influenced the development of the 2018 U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for the conterminous U.S. because valid ground motion models for all periods and site classes of interest were required. FEMA P-2082 is complemented by the FEMA P-2078 technical report that provides a procedure for approximating MPRS outside of the conterminous U.S. This paper presents a condensed version of the relevant sections of FEMA P-2082 and FEMA P-2078 that would interest the LATBSDC.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2021

Socio-technical scales in socio-environmental modeling: Managing a system-of-systems modeling approach

System-of-systems approaches for integrated assessments have become prevalent in recent years. Such approaches integrate a variety of models from different disciplines and modeling paradigms to represent a socio-environmental (or social-ecological) system aiming to holistically inform policy and decision-making processes. Central to the system-of-systems approaches is the representation of systems in a multi-tier framework with nested scales. Current modeling paradigms, however, have disciplinary-specific lineage, leading to inconsistencies in the conceptualization and integration of socio-environmental systems. In this paper, a multidisciplinary team of researchers, from engineering, natural and social sciences, have come together to detail socio-technical practices and challenges that arise in the consideration of scale throughout the socio-environmental modeling process. We identify key paths forward, focused on explicit consideration of scale and uncertainty, strengthening interdisciplinary communication, and improvement of the documentation process. We call for a grand vision (and commensurate funding) for holistic system-of-systems research that engages researchers, stakeholders, and policy makers in a multi-tiered process for the co-creation of knowledge and solutions to major socio-environmental problems.

Environmental Modelling and Software↗

USGS1958

Selected topics of fluid mechanics

The fundamental equations of fluid mechanics are specific expressions of the principles of motion which are ascribed to Isaac Newton. Thus, the equations which form the framework of applied fluid mechanics or hydraulics are, in addition to the equation of continuity, the Newtonian equations of energy and momentum. These basic relationships are also the foundations of river hydraulics. The fundamental equations are developed in this report with sufficient rigor to support critical examinations of their applicability to most problems met by hydraulic engineers of the Water Resources Division of the United States Geological Survey. Physical concepts are emphasized, and mathematical procedures are the simplest consistent with the specific requirements of the derivations. In lieu of numerical examples, analogies, and alternative procedures, this treatment stresses a brief methodical exposition of the essential principles. An important objective of this report is to prepare the user to read the literature of the science. Thus, it begins With a basic vocabulary of technical symbols, terms, and concepts. Throughout, emphasis is placed on the language of modern fluid mechanics as it pertains to hydraulic engineering. The basic differential and integral equations of simple fluid motion are derived, and these equations are, in turn, used to describe the essential characteristics of hydrostatics and piezometry. The one-dimensional equations of continuity and motion are defined and are used to derive the general discharge equation. The flow net is described as a means of demonstrating significant characteristics of two-dimensional irrotational flow patterns. A typical flow net is examined in detail. The influence of fluid viscosity is described as an obstacle to the derivation of general, integral equations of motion. It is observed that the part played by viscosity is one which is usually dependent on experimental evaluation. It follows that the dimensionless ratios known as the Euler, Froude, Reynolds, Weber, and Cauchy numbers are defined as essential tools for interpreting and using experimental data. The derivations of the energy and momentum equations are treated in detail. One-dimensional equations for steady nonuniform flow are developed, and the restrictions applicable to the equations are emphasized. Conditions of uniform and gradually varied flow are discussed, and the origin of the Chezy equation is examined in relation to both the energy and the momentum equations. The inadequacy of all uniform-flow equations as a means of describing gradually varied flow is explained. Thus, one of the definitive problems of river hydraulics is analyzed in the light of present knowledge. This report is the outgrowth of a series of short schools conducted during the spring and summer of 1953 for engineers of the Surface Water Branch, Water Resources Division, U. S. Geological Survey. The topics considered are essentially the same as the topics selected for inclusion in the schools. However, in order that they might serve better as a guide and outline for informal study, the arrangement of the writer's original lecture notes has been considerably altered. The purpose of the report, like the purpose of the schools which inspired it, is to build a simple but strong framework of the fundamentals of fluid mechanics. It is believed that this framework is capable of supporting a detailed analysis of most of the practical problems met by the engineers of the Geological Survey. It is hoped that the least accomplishment of this work will be to inspire the reader with the confidence and desire to read more of the recent and current technical literature of modern fluid mechanics.

Water Supply Paper↗

USGS2002

Alkylcyclohexanes in environmental geochemistry

Two case studies of oil spills that demonstrate the changing distribution patterns resulting from long-term anaerobic microbial degradation were presented. These spills were the 1979 crude-oil spill in Bemidji, MN, and a chronic diesel-fuel spillage from 1953-1991 at Mandan, ND. The alkylcyclohexanes in both spilled oil products were affected by similar biodegradative processes in which the compounds underwent a consistent pattern of loss from the high molecular weight end of the homolog distribution. Degradation resulted in a measurable increase in the concentrations of the homologs in the lower molecular weight range, a gradual lowering in carbon number of the homolog maximum, and a gradual decrease of the total homolog range from the high molecular weight end. The Mandan diesel fuel spill showed that the progressive enhancement of the low-molecular-mass n-alkane and n-alkylcyclohexane homologs reflected an absolute increase in their concentrations as the high-molecular-mass homologs were diminishing. These degradation patterns were different from those observed in aerobic or physically weathered systems, where loss of n-alkenes and other aliphatic homologs occurred from the low molecular weight end of the distributions. Spilled diesel and other mid-cut refinery fuels were defined by the range and distribution of the n-alkylcyclohexanes. If the biodegradation has progressed well into or beyond n-alkane loss and to the stage of low-molecular-mass n-alkylcyclohexane enhancement and high-molecular-mass loss, the hydrocarbon pattern could be erroneously attributed to other lower-range middle distillate fuels or admixtures of fuels. This is an abstract presented at the 25th Arctic and Marine OilSpill Program Technical Seminar (Calgary, Alberta, 6/11-13/2002).

Conference Paper↗

USGS2014

Validation of the SCEC broadband platform V14.3 simulation methods using pseudo spectral acceleration data

This paper summarizes the evaluation of ground motion simulation methods implemented on the SCEC Broadband Platform (BBP), version 14.3 (as of March 2014). A seven-member panel, the authorship of this article, was formed to evaluate those methods for the prediction of pseudo-‐spectral accelerations (PSAs) of ground motion. The panel’s mandate was to evaluate the methods using tools developed through the validation exercise (Goulet et al. ,2014), and to define validation metrics for the assessment of the methods’ performance. This paper summarizes the evaluation process and conclusions from the panel. The five broadband, finite-source simulation methods on the BBP include two deterministic approaches herein referred to as CSM (Anderson, 2014) and UCSB (Crempien and Archuleta, 2014); a band-‐limited stochastic white noise method called EXSIM (Atkinson and Assatourians, 2014); and two hybrid approaches, referred to as G&P (Graves and Pitarka, 2014) and SDSU (Olsen and Takedatsu, 2014), which utilize a deterministic Green’s function approach for periods longer than 1 second and stochastic methods for periods shorter than 1 second. Two acceptance tests were defined to validate the broadband finite‐source ground methods (Goulet et al., 2014). Part A compared observed and simulated PSAs for periods from 0.01 to 10 seconds for 12 moderate to large earthquakes located in California, Japan, and the eastern US. Part B compared the median simulated PSAs to published NGA-‐West1 (Abrahamson and Silva, 2008; Boore and Atkinson, 2008; Campbell and Bozorgnia, 2008; and Chiou and Youngs, 2008) ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) for specific magnitude and distance cases using a pass-‐fail criteria based on a defined acceptable range around the spectral shape of the GMPEs. For the initial Part A and Part B validation exercises during the summer of 2013, the software for the five methods was locked in at version 13.6 (see Maechling et al., 2014). In the spring of 2014, additional moderate events were considered for the Part A validation, and additional magnitude and distance cases were considered for the Part B validation, for the software locked in at version 14.3. Several of the simulation procedures, specifically UCSB and SDSU, changed significantly between versions 13.6 and 14.3. The CSM code was not submitted in time for the v14.3 evaluation and its detailed performance is not addressed in this paper. As described in Goulet et al. (2014) and Maechling et al. (2014), the BBP generates a variety of products, including three-‐component acceleration time series. A series of post-‐processing codes were developed to provide individual component PSAs and average median horizontal-‐component PSA (referred to as RotD50; Boore, 2010) for oscillator periods ranging from 0.01 to 10 seconds, as well as median PSA values computed using the NGA-‐West 1 GMPEs. The BBP was also configured to provide statistical analysis of simulation results relative to recordings (Part A) and GMPEs (Part B) as described further in sections below. As part of our evaluation, we reviewed documentation provided by each of the developers, which included the technical basis behind the methods and the developer’s self-‐assessments regarding the extrapolation capabilities (in terms of magnitude and distance ranges) of their methods. Two workshops were held in which methods and results were presented, and the panel was given the opportunity to question the developers and to have detailed technical discussions. A SCEC report (Dreger et al., 2013) describes the results of this review for BBP version 13.6. This paper summarizes that work and presents results for the more recent BBP 14.3 validation.

Seismological Research Letters↗

USGS2001

Systems identification and the adaptive management of waterfowl in the United States

Waterfowl management in the United States is one of the more visible conservation success stories in the United States. It is authorized and supported by appropriate legislative authorities, based on large-scale monitoring programs, and widely accepted by the public. The process is one of only a limited number of large-scale examples of effective collaboration between research and management, integrating scientific information with management in a coherent framework for regulatory decision-making. However, harvest management continues to face some serious technical problems, many of which focus on sequential identification of the resource system in a context of optimal decision-making. The objective of this paper is to provide a theoretical foundation of adaptive harvest management, the approach currently in use in the United States for regulatory decision-making. We lay out the legal and institutional framework for adaptive harvest management and provide a formal description of regulatory decision-making in terms of adaptive optimization. We discuss some technical and institutional challenges in applying adaptive harvest management and focus specifically on methods of estimating resource states for linear resource systems.

Wildlife Biology↗