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Modeling sandhill crane population dynamics

The impact of sport hunting on the Central Flyway population of sandhill cranes (Grus canadensis) has been a subject of controversy for several years. A recent study (Buller 1979) presented new and important information on sandhill crane population dynamics. The present report is intended to incorporate that and other information into a mathematical model for the purpose of assessing the long-range impact of hunting on the population of sandhill cranes.The model is a simple deterministic system that embodies density-dependent rates of survival and recruitment. The model employs four kinds of data: (1) spring population size of sandhill cranes, estimated from aerial surveys to be between 250,000 and 400,000 birds; (2) age composition in fall, estimated for 1974-76 to be 11.3% young; (3) annual harvest of cranes, estimated from a variety of sources to be about 5 to 7% of the spring population; and (4) age composition of harvested cranes, which was difficult to estimate but suggests that immatures were 2 to 4 times as vulnerable to hunting as adults.Because the true nature of sandhill crane population dynamics remains so poorly understood, it was necessary to try numerous (768 in all) combinations of survival and recruitment functions, and focus on the relatively few (37) that yielded population sizes and age structures comparable to those extant in the real population. Hunting was then applied to those simulated populations. In all combinations, hunting resulted in a lower asymptotic crane population, the decline ranging from 5 to 54%. The median decline was 22%, which suggests that a hunted sandhill crane population might be about three-fourths as large as it would be if left unhunted. Results apply to the aggregate of the three subspecies in the Central Flyway; individual subspecies or populations could be affected to a greater or lesser degree.

Special Scientific Report - Wildlife

Analysis of environmental data with censored observations

The potential threats to humans and to terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems from environmental contamination could depend on the sum of the concentrations of different chemicals. However, direct summation of environmental data is not generally feasible because it is common for some chemical concentrations to be recorded as being below the analytical reporting limit. This creates special problems in the analysis of the data. A new model selection procedure, named forward censored regression, is introduced for selecting an appropriate model for environmental data with censored observations. The procedure is demonstrated using concentrations of atrazine (2-chloro-4-ethylamino-6-isopropylamino- s -triazine), deethylatrazine (DEA, 2-amino-4-chloro-6-isopropylamino- s -triazine), and deisopropylatrazine (DIA, 2-amino-4-chloro-6-ethylamino- s -triazine) in groundwater in the midwestern United States by using the data derived from a previous study conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey. More than 80% of the observations for each compound for this study were left censored at 0.05 μg/L. The values for censored observations of atrazine, DEA, and DIA are imputed with the selected models. The summation of atrazine residue (atrazine + DEA + DIA) can then be calculated using the combination of observed and imputed values to generate a pseudo-complete data set. The all-subsets regression procedure is applied to the pseudo-complete data to select the final model for atrazine residue. The methodology presented can be used to analyze similar cases of environmental contamination involving censored data.

Environmental Science & Technology

Multiple stressor effects in relation to declining amphibian populations

Original research discusses the protocols and approaches to studying the effects of multiple environmental stressors on amphibian populations and gives new perspectives on this complicated subject. This new publication integrates a variety of stressors that can act in concert and may ultimately cause a decline in amphibian populations. Sixteen peer-reviewed papers cover: Toxicity Assessment examines methods, which range from long-established laboratory approaches for evaluating adverse chemical effects to amphibians, to methods that link chemicals in surface waters, sediments, and soils with adverse effects observed among amphibians in the field. Field and Laboratory Studies illustrates studies in the evaluation of multiple stressor effects that may lead to declining amphibian populations. A range of laboratory and field studies of chemicals, such as herbicides, insecticides, chlorinated organic compounds, metals, and complex mixtures are also included. Causal Analysis demonstrates the range of tools currently available for evaluating "cause-effect" relationships between environmental stressors and declining amphibian populations. Audience: This new publication is a must-have for scientists and resource management professionals from diverse fields, including ecotoxicology, chemistry, ecology, field biology, conservation biology, and natural resource management.

Special Technical Report

Magnetic anomaly map of North America

This digital Magnetic Anomaly database and map for the North American continent is the result of a joint effort by the Geological Survey of Canada (GSC), U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), and Consejo de Recursos Minerales of Mexico (CRM). The database and map represent a substantial upgrade from the previous compilation of Magnetic Anomaly data for North America, now over a decade old (Committee for the Magnetic Anomaly Map of North America, 1987). This integrated, readily accessible, modern digital database of magnetic anomaly data will be a powerful tool for further evaluation of the structure, geologic processes, and tectonic evolution of the continent and may also be used to help resolve societal and scientific issues that span national boundaries. The North American magnetic anomaly map derived from the digital database provides a comprehensive magnetic view of continental-scale trends not available in individual data sets, helps link widely separated areas of outcrop, and unifies disparate geologic studies. This booklet outlines the data processing and compilation procedures used to produce the magnetic anomaly database and map that accompany this booklet.

Special Map

Surface water quality assessment of the Upper Illinois River basin in Illinois, Indiana, and Wisconsin: Geochemical data for fine-fraction streambed sediment from high- and low-order streams, 1987

Geochemical data are presented from a synoptic survey of 46 elements in fine-fraction streambed sediments of the Upper Illinois River Basin during the fall of 1987. The survey was a component study of the Illinois pilot project of the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water-Quality Assessment program. Most of the sampling sites were randomly chosen--135 on main stems of rivers and 238 on first- and second-order streams. In addition, 196 samples were collected for quality-assurance and special-study purposes. The report includes element concentration data and summary-statistics tables of percentiles, nested analysis of variance, and correlation coefficients. All concentration data are included in tabular form and can be selected by map reference number, latitude and longitude, or remark code indicating purpose for collecting sample.

Illinois, Indiana

Water resources data, Mississippi, water year 2001

Water resources data for the 2001 water year for Mississippi consist of records of surface water and ground water in the State. Specifically, it contains: (1) Discharge records for 95 streamflow-gaging stations, stage records for 20 of these gaging stations, discharge records for 83 partial-record or miscellaneous streamflow stations, including 8 flood hydrograph partial-record stations, 70 crest-stage partial-record stations, and 5 special study and miscellaneous sites; (2) stage only at 1 gaging station; (3) water-quality records for 8 streamflow-gaging stations, 0 partial-record or miscellaneous sites, 9 short-term study sites, and 27 wells; and (4) water-level records for 18 observation wells. Records obtained from water-resources investigations are also included in special sections of the report. These data represent that part of the National Water Data System operated by the U.S. Geological Survey, and cooperating local, State, and Federal agencies in Mississippi.

Mississippi

Water Resources Data Mississippi Water Year 2003

Water resources data for the 2003 water year for Mississippi consist of records of surface water and ground water in the State. Specifically, it contains: (1) Discharge records for 94 streamflow-gaging stations, stage records for 20 of these gaging stations, discharge records for 98 partial-record stations or miscellaneous streamflow sites, including 10 flood hydrograph partial-record stations, 78 crest-stage partial-record stations, and 10 special study and miscellaneous sites; (2) stage only at 7 gaging stations; (3) water-quality records for 10 streamflow-gaging stations, 5 stage-only stations, 3 water-quality monitor stations, 0 partial-record stations or miscellaneous sites, 11 short-term study sites, and 24 wells; and (4) water-level records for 19 observation wells. Records obtained from water-resources investigations are also included in special sections of the report. These data represent that part of the National Water Data System operated by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with State, county, municipal, and other Federal agencies in Mississippi.

Water Data Report

Water resources data Mississippi water year 2004

Water resources data for this water year for Mississippi consists of records of surface water and ground water in the State. Specifically, it contains: (1) Discharge records for 90 streamflow-gaging stations, stage records for 18 of these gaging stations, discharge records for 97 partial-record stations or miscellaneous streamflow sites, including 6 flood hydrograph partial-record stations, 91 crest-stage partial-record stations and 0 special study and miscellaneous sites; (2) stage only at 1 gaging station; (3) water-quality records for 12 streamflow-gaging stations, 0 stage-only stations, 13 water-quality monitor stations, 0 partial-record stations or miscellaneous sites, 0 short-term study sites, and 26 wells; and (4) water-level records for 19 observation wells. Records obtained from water-resources investigations are also included in special sections of the report. Records included for stream stages are only a small fraction of those obtained during the water year.

Water Data Report

Water resources data, Mississippi, water year 1993

Water resources data for the 1993 water year for Mississippi consist of records of surface water, ground water, and precipitation in the State. Specifically, it contains:(1) Discharge records for 83 streamflow-gaging stations, stage records for 19 of these gaging stations, discharge records for 107 partial-record or miscellaneous streamflow stations, including 7 flood hydrograph partial-record stations, 55 crest-stage partial-record stations and 46 special study and miscellaneous sites, (2) stage only at 6 gaging stations,(3) water-quality records for 24 streamflow-gaging stations, 2 ungaged streamsites 6 partial-record or miscellaneous sites, 21 short-term study sites, 384 wells, and 3 precipitation-quality stations, and (4) water-level records for 231 observation wells. Records obtained from water-resources investigations are also included in special sections of the report. These data represent that part of the National Water Data System operated by the U.S. Geological Survey, and cooperating local, State, and Federal agencies in Mississippi.

Mississippi

Water resources data, Mississippi, water year 1995

Water resources data for the 1995 water year for Mississippi consist of records of surface water and ground water in the State. Specifically, it contains: (1) Discharge records for 86 streamflow-gaging stations, stage records for 20 of these gaging stations, discharge records for 80 partial-record or miscellaneous streamflow stations, including 8 flood hydrograph partial-record stations, 54 crest-stage partial-record stations, and 18 special study and miscellaneous sites; (2) stage only at 6 gaging stations; (3) water-quality records for 22 streamflow-gaging stations, 1 ungaged stream site, 9 partial-record or miscellaneous sites, 50 short-term study sites, and 72 wells; and (4) water-level records for 47 observation wells. Records obtained from water-resources investigations are also included in special sections of the report. These data represent that part of the National Water Data System operated by the U.S. Geological Survey, and cooperating local, State, and Federal agencies in Mississippi.

Mississippi

Water resources data, Mississippi, water year 1996

Water resources data for the 1996 water year for Mississippi consist of records of surface water and ground water in the State. Specifically, it contains: (1) Discharge records for 88 streamflow-gaging stations, stage records for 19 of these gaging stations, discharge records for 66 partial-record or miscellaneous streamflow stations, including 7 flood hydrograph partial-record stations, 53 crest-stage partial-record stations, and 6 special study and miscellaneous sites; (2) stage only at 4 gaging stations; (3) water-quality records for 21 streamflow-gaging stations, 1 ungaged stream site, 2 partial-record or miscellaneous sites, 64 short-term study sites, and 26 wells; and (4) water-level records for 46 observation wells. Records obtained from water-resources investigations are also included in special sections of the report. These data represent that part of the National Water Data System operated by the U.S. Geological Survey, and cooperating local, State, and Federal agencies in Mississippi.

Mississippi

Water resources data, Mississippi, water year 1998

Water resources data for the 1998 water year for Mississippi consist of records of surface water and ground water in the State. Specifically, it contains: (1) Discharge records for 97 streamflow-gaging stations, stage records for 19 of these gaging stations, discharge records for 73 partial-record or miscellaneous streamflow stations, including 7 flood hydrograph partial-record stations, 51 crest-stage partial-record stations, and 15 special study and miscellaneous sites; (2) stage only at 1 gaging station; (3) water-quality records for 13 streamflow-gaging stations, 3 partial-record or miscellaneous sites, 8 short-term study sites, and 43 wells; and (4) water-level records for 34 observation wells. Records obtained from water-resources investigations are also included in special sections of the report. These data represent that part of the National Water Data System operated by the U.S. Geological Survey, and cooperating local, State, and Federal agencies in Mississippi.

Mississippi

Water resources data, Mississippi, water year 1999

Water resources data for the 1999 water year for Mississippi consist of records of surface water and ground water in the State. Specifically, it contains: (1) Discharge records for 97 streamflow-gaging stations, stage records for 19 of these gaging stations, discharge records for 79 partial-record or miscellaneous streamflow stations, including 7 flood hydrograph partial-record stations, 70 crest-stage partial-record stations, and 2 special study and miscellaneous sites; (2) stage only at 2 gaging stations; (3) water-quality records for 18 streamflow-gaging stations, 4 partial-record or miscellaneous sites, 11 short-term study sites, and 39 wells; and (4) water-level records for 18 observation wells. Records obtained from water-resources investigations are also included in special sections of the report. These data represent that part of the National Water Data System operated by the U.S. Geological Survey, and cooperating local, State, and Federal agencies in Mississippi.

Mississippi

Paleoseismic investigation of the Taylorsville fault at the Airport East site, West Valley fault zone, Salt Lake County, Utah

The West Valley fault zone (WVFZ) and Salt Lake City segment (SLCS) of the Wasatch fault zone comprise Holoceneactive normal faults that bound an intrabasin graben in northern Salt Lake Valley, Utah. Both fault zones have evidence of recurrent Holocene surface-faulting earthquakes. A topic of recent research is the seismogenic relation of the antithetic (subsidiary) WVFZ to the Wasatch fault zone—specifically, to what degree are WVFZ earthquakes independent of slip on the SLCS, or other adjacent segments, of the Wasatch fault zone. To improve paleoseismic data for the WVFZ and better understand the seismogenic relation between the WVFZ and Wasatch fault zone, we conducted a fault-trench investigation at the Airport East site, developed new earthquake recurrence and fault sliprate estimates for the WVFZ, and compared WVFZ earthquake timing data with data from the Wasatch fault zone. The Airport East site is near the northern end of the easternmost traces of the WVFZ, collectively referred to as the Taylorsville fault. At this site, we excavated two parallel trenches across a small (~0.5-m high) east-facing fault scarp. Shallow groundwater severely limited trench depth, and we were able to expose deposits only as old as mid-Holocene. However, the late Holocene section contained evidence for three surfacefaulting earthquakes on the Taylorsville fault, as well as earthquake-related deformation (liquefaction and folding) from a fourth earthquake that was likely sourced elsewhere. Based on OxCal modeling of radiocarbon and optically stimulated luminescence ages, the most recent earthquake, AE1, occurred at 0.4 ± 0.2 ka (mean modeled time ± 2σ), earthquake AE2 occurred at 0.6 ± 0.2 ka, and earthquake AE3 occurred at 2.0 ± 0.3 ka. Timing data from the Airport East site indicate the liquefaction and folding event (LE1) occurred at 5.1 ± 0.3 ka. Net vertical displacement across the fault is 0.6–1.1 m, and calculations of mean per-event displacement range from 0.20 to 0.37 m. Inter-event recurrence intervals for the Taylorsville fault at the Airport East site vary from 200 to 1400 yr, and the mean late Holocene (post-2 ka) recurrence interval is 800 yr. Paleoseismic (closed-interval) slip rates range from 0.23 to 1.4 mm/yr, and geologic (open-interval) slip rates range from 0.1–0.2 mm/yr over the past ~5000 yr to 0.2–0.4 mm/yr over the past ~2500 yr. Combining our new Airport East data with previous paleoseismic data for the WVFZ shows that during individual late Holocene earthquakes, surface faulting has occurred on either the Taylorsville or Granger fault, but not both faults at the same time (at least not on the parts of the faults that have been trenched). However, five mid- to late Holocene WVFZ earthquakes have mean modeled times that are either very similar or identical to mean modeled times of SLCS and Weber-segment earthquakes, and temporal correlations of two additional late Pleistocene WVFZ earthquakes with SLCS earthquakes cannot be ruled out. When comparing the earthquake chronologies of the WVFZ and Wasatch fault zone, our new data lend support to the idea that, more often than not, some part of the WVFZ moves in response to, and possibly synchronously with, slip on the Wasatch fault zone.

Utah

Trends in fishery management of the Great Lakes

Some hope is returning for recovery of the fish stocks of the Great Lakes, which have been outstanding examples of abuse although they are the world's largest and most valuable freshwater fishery resource. The lakes and the fish in them have been under complete jurisdiction of sovereign nations and their subdivisions almost since the settlement of north-central North America, but ironically this control has not prevented their decadence. For the first time in the long history of the Great Lakes fishery, management measures have been taken to meliorate conditions that contributed to earlier difficulties.

Special Publication