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The performance of nearshore dredge disposal at Ocean Beach, San Francisco, California, 2005-2007

Ocean Beach, California, contains an erosion hot spot in the shadow of the San Francisco ebb tidal delta that threatens valuable public infrastructure as well as the safe recreational use of the beach. In an effort to reduce the erosion at this location a new plan for the management of sediment dredged annually from the main shipping channel at the mouth of San Francisco Bay was implemented in May 2005 by the United States Army Corps of Engineers, San Francisco District (USACE). The USACE designated a temporary nearshore dredge disposal site for the annual disposal of about 230,000 m3 (300,000 yd3) of sand about 750 m offshore and slightly south of the erosion hot spot, in depths between approximately 9 and 14 m. The site has now been used three times for a total sediment disposal of about 690,000 m3 (about 900,000 yds3). The disposal site was chosen because it is in a location where strong tidal currents and open-ocean waves can potentially feed sediment toward the littoral zone in the reach of the beach that is experiencing critical erosion, as well as prevent further scour on an exposed outfall pipe. The onshore migration of sediment from the target disposal location might feed the primary longshore bar or the nearshore zone, and provide a buffer to erosion that peaks during winter months when large waves impact the region. The United States Geological Survey (USGS) has been monitoring and modeling the bathymetric evolution of the test dredge disposal site and the adjacent coastal region since inception in May 2005. This paper reports on the first 2.5 years of this monitoring program effort (May 2005 to December 2007) and assesses the short-term coastal response. Here are the key findings of this report: *Approximately half of the sediment that has been placed in the nearshore dredge-disposal site during the 2.5 years of this study remains within the dredge focus area. *In the winter of 2006-7, large waves transported the dredge-mound material onshore. *High rates of seasonal cross-shore sediment transport mask any potential profile change in the Coastal Profiling System data due to dredge placement. *Pockets of accretion have been recorded by topographic surveying adjacent to the dredge site, but it is unclear if the accretion is linked to the nourishment. *Cross-shore profile modeling suggests that dredge material must be placed in water depths no greater than 5 m to drive a positive shoreline response. *Area modeling demonstrates that the new dredge site increases wave dissipation and modifies local sediment-transport patterns, although the effect on the nearshore morphology is largely negligible. *Any increase in beach width or wave energy-dissipation related to the nourishment is likely to be realized only in the vicinity directly onshore of the nourishment site, which is several hundred meters south of the area of critical erosion. *Larger waves from the northwest and smaller waves from the west or southwest contribute most to the sediment transport from the dredge mound onshore.

California

Altitudes between Lake Superior and the Rocky Mountains

In the survey of Lake Agassiz, a preliminary report of which forms Bulletin No. 39, it was found necessary to ascertain the altitudes determined within its area by railroad surveys as the basis for leveling along the shore lines of that glacial lake, and learning their relations in height to each other, to the great lakes of the St. Lawrence and Nelson Rivers, and to the ocean. From the time of the first observations and description of the upper beaches of Lake Agassiz by the author in 1879 and 1881, for the Geological Survey of Minnesota, and especially since the work was extended in 1885, under the U. S. Geological Survey, to include both sides of this lacustrine area in Minnesota and North Dakota now drained by the Red River of the North, much attention has been given to this collection of altitudes, and to the means of referring them to the sea level. The greater part of Lake Agassiz, however, was in Manitoba and adjacent British Territory, stretching north to the Saskatchewan; and in 1887, jointly for the Geological Surveys of the United States and of Canada, the author continued his examination of the beaches and deltas on the west side of the lake along a distance of a hundred miles north from the international boundary, across the prairie region of southwestern Manitoba, the leveling in this work being based on the altitudes of the Canadian Pacific Railway and its branches and connecting railways.

Bulletin

Ground-truthing electrical resistivity methods in support of submarine groundwater discharge studies: Examples from Hawaii, Washington, and California

Submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) is an important conduit that links terrestrial and marine environments. SGD conveys both water and water-borne constituents into coastal waters, where these inflows may impact near-shore ecosystem health and sustainability. Multichannel electrical resistivity techniques have proven to be a powerful tool to examine scales and dynamics of SGD and SGD forcings. However, there are uncertainties both in data aquisition and data processing that must be addressed to maximize the effectiveness of this tool in estuarine or marine environments. These issues most often relate to discerning subtle nuances in the flow of electricity through variably saturated media that can also be highly conductive ( i.e., seawater). Three contrasting field sites were examined for this study to assess the effectiveness of electrical resistivity techniques in varying coastal settings by comparing resistivity data to direct salinity and resistivity observations, quantifying changes in lithology and beach geomorphology, and fine-tuning inversion protocols. The three study sites all have substantial (up to 85 cm day −1 ) submarine groundwater discharge rates, but the hydrologic, oceanographic, and geologic characteristics of the sites are all very different. At a site in Pelekane Bay on the Big Island of Hawaii, seasonal flooding introduces very high concentrations of fine to coarse sediment into the bay. Near-shore circulation is limited in Pelekane Bay, so this newly introduced sediment can become deposited in the bay where it accumulates over time. At a site in Hood Canal, a fjord within Puget Sound, Washington, SGD rates can be high because of the large tidal range, abundant recharge, and steep hydrologic gradients. At Younger Lagoon in northern California, the flow of groundwater towards the coast is much more parsimonious, but here marine processes, including recirculated seawater, are important in controlling the flow of material towards the coast. Rigorous ground-truthing at each field site showed that multi-channel electrcial resistivity techniques can reproduce the scales and dynamics of a seepage field when such data are correctly collected, and when the model inversions are tuned to field site characteristics. Such information can provide a unique perspective on the scales and dynamics of exchange processes within a coastal aquifer—information essential to scientists and resource managers alike.

California, Hawaii, Washington

ENSO and PDO drive shoreline position anomalies in the U.S. Pacific Northwest

Sandy beaches act as buffers against various coastal hazards but are vulnerable to episodic (seasonal) and chronic (interannual) erosion. Understanding the variation of shoreline position, a key metric in coastal morphology, over a spectrum of time scales is therefore crucial in assessing hazard vulnerability. Long-standing research has investigated the role of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the dominant mode of climate variability in the Pacific Basin, in seasonal shoreline variability. Yet, ENSO’s chronic influence—and that of another Pacific climate mode, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)—on shoreline anomalies remains poorly understood. Here, we examine the variability of sandy beaches in the US Pacific Northwest, a ∼750 km long coastal region on the US West Coast. We leverage 40 years (1984–2024) of shoreline data from publicly available Earth-observing (Landsat) satellite imagery at a high spatial resolution (>10,000 shore-normal transects at 50-m alongshore spacing) and employ Convergent Cross Mapping (CCM), a methodology for inferring causality in dynamical systems. We discover that strong El Niño years are signified by erosion (75.1% of transects), and strong La Niña years exhibit accretional behavior (73.4% of transects). Furthermore, we establish, for the first time, that both ENSO and PDO exert a statistically significant control on interannual shoreline variability, particularly on the alongshore component (in 95 and 100% of littoral cells, respectively), with water level fluctuations playing a critical role. This effort advances our understanding of the seasonal-to-interannual interactions between Pacific Basin climate variability and the PNW’s coastal morphodynamics, with implications for sediment management and coastal adaptation.

California, Oregon, Washington

Tidal Boundary Conditions in SEAWAT

SEAWAT, a U.S. Geological Survey groundwater flow and transport code, is increasingly used to model the effects of tidal motion on coastal aquifers. Different options are available to simulate tidal boundaries but no guidelines exist nor have comparisons been made to identify the most effective approach. We test seven methods to simulate a sloping beach and a tidal flat. The ocean is represented in one of the three ways: directly using a high hydraulic conductivity (high- K ) zone and indirect simulation via specified head boundaries using either the General Head Boundary (GHB) or the new Periodic Boundary Condition (PBC) package. All beach models simulate similar water fluxes across the upland boundary and across the sediment-water interface although the ratio of intertidal to subtidal flow is different at low tide. Simulating a seepage face results in larger intertidal fluxes and influences near-shore heads and salinity. Major differences in flow occur in the tidal flat simulations. Because SEAWAT does not simulate unsaturated flow the water table only rises via flow through the saturated zone. This results in delayed propagation of the rising tidal signal inland. Inundation of the tidal flat is delayed as is flow into the aquifer across the flat. This is severe in the high- K and PBC models but mild in the GHB models. Results indicate that any of the tidal boundary options are fine if the ocean-aquifer interface is steep. However, as the slope of that interface decreases, the high- K and PBC approaches perform poorly and the GHB boundary is preferable.

Ground Water

California State Waters Map Series — Offshore of Santa Cruz, California

Introduction In 2007, the California Ocean Protection Council initiated the California Seafloor Mapping Program (CSMP), designed to create a comprehensive seafloor map of high-resolution bathymetry, marine benthic habitats, and geology within the limit of California’s State Waters. The CSMP approach is to create highly detailed seafloor maps through collection, integration, interpretation, and visualization of swath sonar data, acoustic backscatter, seafloor video, seafloor photography, high-resolution seismic-reflection profiles, and bottom-sediment sampling data. The map products display seafloor morphology and character, identify potential marine benthic habitats, and illustrate both the surficial seafloor geology and shallow subsurface geology. The Offshore of Santa Cruz map area is located in central California, on the Pacific Coast about 98 km south of San Francisco. The city of Santa Cruz (population, about 63,000), the largest incorporated city in the map area and the county seat of Santa Cruz County, lies on uplifted marine terraces between the shoreline and the northwest-trending Santa Cruz Mountains, part of California’s Coast Ranges. All of California’s State Waters in the map area is part of the Monterey Bay National Marine Sanctuary. The map area is cut by an offshore section of the San Gregorio Fault Zone, and it lies about 20 kilometers southwest of the San Andreas Fault Zone. Regional folding and uplift along the coast has been attributed to a westward bend in the San Andreas Fault Zone and to right-lateral movement along the San Gregorio Fault Zone. Most of the coastal zone is characterized by low, rocky cliffs and sparse, small pocket beaches backed by low, terraced hills. Point Santa Cruz, which forms the north edge of Monterey Bay, provides protection for the beaches in the easternmost part of the map area by sheltering them from the predominantly northwesterly waves. The shelf in the map area is underlain by variable amounts (0 to 25 m) of upper Quaternary shelf, estuarine, and fluvial sediments deposited as sea level fluctuated in the late Pleistocene. The inner shelf is characterized by bedrock outcrops that have local thin sediment cover, the result of regional uplift, high wave energy, and limited sediment supply. The midshelf occupies part of an extensive, shore-parallel mud belt. The thickest sediment deposits, inferred to consist mainly of lowstand nearshore deposits, are found in the southeastern and northwestern parts of the map area. Coastal sediment transport in the map area is characterized by northwest-to-southeast littoral transport of sediment that is derived mainly from ephemeral streams in the Santa Cruz Mountains and also from local coastal-bluff erosion. During the last approximately 300 years, as much as 18 million cubic yards (14 million cubic meters) of sand-sized sediment has been eroded from the area between Año Nuevo Island and Point Año Nuevo and transported south; this mass of eroded sand is now enriching beaches in the map area. Sediment transport is within the Santa Cruz littoral cell, which terminates in the submarine Monterey Canyon. Benthic species observed in the Offshore of Santa Cruz map area are natives of the cold-temperate biogeographic zone that is called either the “Oregonian province” or the “northern California ecoregion.” This biogeographic province is maintained by the long-term stability of the southward-flowing California Current, the eastern limb of the North Pacific subtropical gyre that flows from southern British Columbia to Baja California. At its midpoint off central California, the California Current transports subarctic surface (0–500 m deep) waters southward, about 150 to 1,300 km from shore. Seasonal northwesterly winds that are, in part, responsible for the California Current, generate coastal upwelling. The south end of the Oregonian province is at Point Conception (about 300 km south of the map area), although its associated phylogeographic group of marine fauna may extend beyond to the area offshore of Los Angeles in southern California. The ocean off of central California has experienced a warming over the last 50 years that is driving an ecosystem shift away from the productive subarctic regime towards a depopulated subtropical environment. Biological productivity resulting from coastal upwelling supports populations of Sooty Shearwater, Western Gull, Common Murre, Cassin’s Auklet, and many other less populous bird species. In addition, an observable recovery of Humpback and Blue Whales has occurred in the area; both species are dependent on coastal upwelling to provide nutrients. The large extent of exposed inner shelf bedrock supports large forests of “bull kelp,” which is well adapted for high-wave-energy environments. The kelp beds are the northernmost known habitat for the population of southern sea otters. Common fish species found in the kelp beds and rocky reefs include lingcod and various species of rockfish and greenling.

California

Historic bluff retreat and stabilization at Flag Harbor, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland

Studies of bluff erosion and slope stability along the western shore of Chesapeake Bay suggest relative evolution from steep, eroding coastal bluffs to stable slopes at angles of repose ca. 35 degrees over decades. Because of the dating methods in those studies, it was impossible to precisely define rates of change. The present study provides historic age control. A pair of small harbor structures were constructed in the early 1950's at Chesapeake Beach, MD to maintain a dredged channel to a small marina occupying a ravine in the Calvert Cliffs. Prior to construction, this section of shoreline was comprised of eroding steep bluffs cut into Miocene-age sediments. Downdrift erosion is now apparent south of the structures as is updrift deposition behind the northern jetty. Since construction the updrift sand body has prograded northward and progressively deposited protective beaches along the toes of the bluffs. Former eroding bluffs nearest the harbor are now stable, vegetated slopes at angles near 35 degrees. Slope angles widen to the north and to the northern limit of the sand body. Beyond this are eroding bluffs standing at angles of 70-80 degrees. The relative time required for eroding bluffs to reach stability is estimated by interpolating the distance and time for the sand body to prograde northward since harbor construction. We measured slope angles at intervals northward from the updrift structure for a distance of 2000 feet. A least squares regression of slope angle vs distance showed progressive decrease in angle from north to south. Actively eroding 70-80 degree bluffs gave way to vegetated, but slumping slopes, and finally to stable 35-degree slopes at the harbor. A relationship between time and distance along the shore allowed us to estimate a stabilization time for this location of 35-40 years. The shortness of this time scale allows us to suggest that attempts to artificially stabilize eroding bluffs along this coast is not a simple task of protecting the toes of slopes from wave action. Once shoreline retreat ends, sloughing of sediment from bluff faces gives way to longer-term landslide processes. The bluff top recedes until a stable 35-degree slope is attained. Thus, simple shoreline protection methods may not preserve property at the bluff edge.

Open-File Report

Chapter 22: Environments and facies of existing bays on the central Texas coast

The estuaries and neritic waters along the central Texas coast are characterized by broad ranges of environmental factors, providing conditions favorable to temperate organisms in winter and tropical organisms in summer. Dredging in the coastal waters revealed a number of distinct faunal facies, the distribution of which appears to be controlled primarily by salinity. Characteristic assemblages are found in the following areas: closed bays, polyhaline bays, a highly saline lagoon, passes, beaches on the open Gulf, and shallow waters of the open gulf. In the closed bays three subfacies are recognized-one in the bay heads, one on the reefs, and one in the interreef areas; in the open gulf the assemblages living close to shore are differentiated from those found 2-4 miles off shore. In most stations each facies is characterized by an abundance of certain living forms. Dead shells and other skeletal parts are much more widely distributed, but many such strays may be recognized as transported elements by their rarity or by their eroded surfaces. Each group of organisms has one or more centers of maximum development in numbers of species. The Foraminifera, for example, attain their greatest development in the polyhaline bays and near the heads of passes, the ostracodes near the bay heads, mollusks in the polyhaline bays and in the Gulf, and diatoms under normal marine conditions in the Gulf. The reef assemblage of the closed bays is poor in numbers of species, but the individuals are so numerous that they form extensive deposits.

Texas

Post-release behavior and movement patterns of Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) and coho salmon ( Oncorhynchus kisutch ) after capture using alternative commercial fish gear, lower Columbia River, Washington and Oregon, 2013

Commercial salmon Oncorhynchus spp. fishers traditionally have used gill nets, and more recently tangle nets, to capture adult salmon in the lower Columbia River, Washington and Oregon, but these gear types are not selective and can result in unintentional injury or death to non-target species, which is a problem when wild or Endangered Species Act-listed salmon are present. Gill and tangle nets capture fish through physical retention. Gill nets have mesh sizes that are slightly larger than the diameter of the head of the target species so that a fish moving through the net becomes entangled behind its operculum. Tangle nets have mesh sizes that are smaller than the diameter of the head of the target species so that a fish becomes entangled by its teeth or jaw. The Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife (WDFW) has been evaluating Merwin traps, beach seines, and purse seines during the past decade to determine if these are viable alternative commercial fishing gear types that would reduce negative effects to non-target fish, including wild salmon. As opposed to gill and tangle nets, these alternative gear types capture fish without physical restraint. The nets encircle the area where a fish or school of fish is located and eliminate the ability of those fish to escape. Because fish are not physically restrained by the gear, it is believed that the likelihood of injury and death would be reduced, allowing the safe release of non-target fish. In 2011 and 2012, WDFW conducted post-release mortality studies of steelhead ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ), Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) , and coho salmon ( Oncorhynchus kisutch ) that were captured using beach or purse seines. These studies were comprised of two groups of fish tagged with passive integrated transponder tags (PIT tags): (1) treatment fish that were captured by one of the gear types 9–25 river kilometers (rkm) downstream of Bonneville Dam (rkm 234); and (2) control fish that were captured at the Adult Fish Facility near the Washington shore fish ladder at Bonneville Dam, and then transported and released 8 rkm downstream of the Bonneville Dam. Fish were confirmed to have survived if they moved upstream and were detected on PIT-tag antennas at or upstream of Bonneville Dam, were recovered at hatcheries or at the dam, or were captured by commercial or sport fishers. Post-release survival estimates were higher for steelhead (89–98 percent) than for Chinook salmon and coho salmon (50–90 percent; Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife, unpub. data, 2014). However, some Chinook salmon and coho salmon return to hatcheries, or spawn in the mainstem Columbia River and in tributaries downstream of Bonneville Dam. The proportion of Chinook salmon and coho salmon in the treatment group that were destined for areas downstream of Bonneville Dam likely was higher than in the control group because the control fish were collected as they were attempting to pass the dam. If this assertion was true, mortality would have been overestimated in these studies, so WDFW developed a study plan to determine the post-release movements and intended location of Chinook salmon and coho salmon collected with beach and purse seines in the lower Columbia River.

Oregon, Washington

Coastal change along the shore of northeastern South Carolina— The South Carolina Coastal Erosion Study

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the South Carolina Sea Grant Consortium, conducted a 7-year, multidisciplinary study of coastal erosion in northeastern South Carolina. Shoreline behavior along the coast of Long Bay is dictated by waves, tidal currents, and sediment supply that act within the overall constraints of the regional geologic setting. Beaches are thin ribbons of sand that sit on top of layered sedimentary rocks, which have been deeply eroded by rivers and coastal processes over millions of years. Offshore of the beaches, these sedimentary rocks are exposed as hardgrounds over large expanses of shallow seafloor and are locally overlain by a discontinuous veneer of sandy sediment generally less than 1 m thick. Rates of shoreline retreat largely depend on the geologic framework of the shoreface that is being excavated by ocean processes. Mainland-attached beaches have remained relatively stable, whereas barrier islands have experienced large shifts in shoreline position. In this sediment-limited region, erosion of the shoreface and inner shelf probably contributes a significant amount of new material to the beach system. Oceanographic studies and numerical modeling show that sediment transport varies along the coast, depending on the type and travel path of storms that impact Long Bay, but the long-term net transport direction is generally from north to south. Changes in storm activity that might accompany climate change, coupled with anticipated increases in sea-level rise, are expected to strongly affect low-lying, heavily developed areas of the coast.

South Carolina

Migratory corridors of adult female Kemp’s ridley turtles in the Gulf of Mexico

For many marine species, locations of migratory pathways are not well defined. We used satellite telemetry and switching state-space modeling (SSM) to define the migratory corridor used by Kemp's ridley turtles (Lepidochelys kempii) in the Gulf of Mexico. The turtles were tagged after nesting at Padre Island National Seashore, Texas, USA from 1997 to 2014 (PAIS; n = 80); Rancho Nuevo, Tamaulipas, Mexico from 2010 to 2011 (RN; n = 14); Tecolutla, Veracruz, Mexico from 2012 to 2013 (VC; n = 13); and Gulf Shores, Alabama, USA during 2012 (GS; n = 1). The migratory corridor lies in nearshore Gulf of Mexico waters in the USA and Mexico with mean water depth of 26 m and a mean distance of 20 km from the nearest mainland coast. Migration from the nesting beach is a short phenomenon that occurs from late-May through August, with a peak in June. There was spatial similarity of post-nesting migratory pathways for different turtles over a 16 year period. Thus, our results indicate that these nearshore Gulf waters represent a critical migratory habitat for this species. However, there is a gap in our understanding of the migratory pathways used by this and other species to return from foraging grounds to nesting beaches. Therefore, our results highlight the need for tracking reproductive individuals from foraging grounds to nesting beaches. Continued tracking of adult females from PAIS, RN, and VC nesting beaches will allow further study of environmental and bathymetric components of migratory habitat and threats occurring within our defined corridor. Furthermore, the existence of this migratory corridor in nearshore waters of both the USA and Mexico demonstrates that international cooperation is necessary to protect essential migratory habitat for this imperiled species.

Gulf of Mexico

Coastal vulnerability assessment of Cape Cod National Seashore to sea-level rise

A coastal vulnerability index (CVI) was used to map the relative vulnerability of the coast to future sea-level rise within the Cape Cod National Seashore (CACO). The CVI ranks the following in terms of their physical contribution to sea-level rise-related coastal change: geomorphology, regional coastal slope, rate of relative sea-level rise, shoreline change rates, mean tidal range and mean wave height. The rankings for each variable were combined and an index value calculated for 1-minute grid cells covering the park. The CVI highlights those regions where the physical effects of sea-level rise might be the greatest. This approach combines the coastal system's susceptibility to change with its natural ability to adapt to changing environmental conditions, yielding a quantitative, although relative, measure of the park's natural vulnerability to the effects of sea-level rise. CACO consists of high glacial cliffs, beaches, sand spits, and salt marsh wetlands. The areas most vulnerable to sea-level rise are those with the lowest regional coastal slopes, geomorphologic types that are susceptible to inundation, and the highest rates of shoreline change. Most of CACO's infrastructure lies on high elevation uplands away from the shore; most high use areas are accessible by foot only. The CVI provides an objective technique for evaluation and long-term planning by scientists and park managers.

Massachusetts

Migration, foraging, and residency patterns for Northern Gulf loggerheads: implications of local threats and international movements

Northern Gulf of Mexico (NGoM) loggerheads ( Caretta caretta ) make up one of the smallest subpopulations of this threatened species and have declining nest numbers. We used satellite telemetry and a switching state-space model to identify distinct foraging areas used by 59 NGoM loggerheads tagged during 2010–2013. We tagged turtles after nesting at three sites, 1 in Alabama (Gulf Shores; n = 37) and 2 in Florida (St. Joseph Peninsula; n = 20 and Eglin Air Force Base; n = 2). Peak migration time was 22 July to 9 August during which >40% of turtles were in migration mode; the mean post-nesting migration period was 23.0 d (±13.8 d SD). After displacement from nesting beaches, 44 turtles traveled to foraging sites where they remained resident throughout tracking durations. Selected foraging locations were variable distances from tagging sites, and in 5 geographic regions; no turtles selected foraging sites outside the Gulf of Mexico (GoM). Foraging sites delineated using 50% kernel density estimation were located a mean distance of 47.6 km from land and in water with mean depth of −32.5 m; other foraging sites, delineated using minimum convex polygons, were located a mean distance of 43.0 km from land and in water with a mean depth of −24.9 m. Foraging sites overlapped with known trawling activities, oil and gas extraction activities, and the footprint of surface oiling during the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill (n = 10). Our results highlight the year-round use of habitats in the GoM by loggerheads that nest in the NGoM. Our findings indicate that protection of females in this subpopulation requires both international collaborations and management of threats that spatially overlap with distinct foraging habitats.

Gulf of Mexico

Effects of the earthquake of March 27, 1964, on various communities

The 1964 earthquake caused wide-spread damage to inhabited places throughout more than 60,000 square miles of south-central Alaska. This report describes damage to all communities in the area except Anchorage, Whittier, Homer, Valdez, Seward, the communities of the Kodiak group of islands, and communities in the Copper River Basin; these were discussed in previous chapters of the Geological Survey's series of reports on the earthquake. At the communities discussed herein, damage resulted primarily from sea waves of diverse origins, displacements of the land relative to sea level, and seismic shaking. Waves took all of the 31 lives lost at those communities; physical damage was primarily from the waves and vertical displacements of the land relative to sea level. Destructive waves of local origin struck during or immediately after the earthquake throughout much of Prince William Sound, the southern Kenai Peninsula, and the shores of Kenai Lake. In Prince William Sound, waves demolished all but one home at the native village of Chenega, destroyed homesites at Point Nowell and Anderson Bay, and caused varying amounts of damage to waterfront facilities at Sawmill Bay, Latouche, Port Oceanic, Port Nellie Juan, Perry Island, and western Port Valdez. The local waves, which ran up as high as 70 feet above tide level at Chenega and more than 170 feet in several uninhabited parts of the Sound, took nearly all of the lives lost by drowning at these communities. Destructive local waves that devastated shores of Anderson Bay and adjacent parts of western Port Valdez probably were generated primarily by massive submarine slides of glacial and fluvioglacial deposits ; the origin of the waves that caused damage at most of the other communities and at extensive uninhabited segments of shoreline is not known. At these places the most probable generative mechanisms are: unidentified submarine slides of unconsolidated deposits, and (or) the horizontal tectonic displacements, of 20 to more than 60 feet, that occurred in the Prince William Sound region during the earthquake. A train of long-period seismic sea waves that began about 20 minutes after the start of the earthquake inundated shores along the Gulf of Alaska coast to a maximum height of 35 feet above tide level. At the communities described, they virtually destroyed two logging camps at Whidbey Bay and Puget Bay on the south coast of the Kenai Peninsula, caused moderate damage to boat harbors and docks at Seldovia and Cordova, floated away some beach cabins in the Cordova area, and drowned two people, one at Point Whitshed near Cordora and one at the Cape Saint Elias Light Station. The seismic sea waves were generated by regional tectonic uplift of the sea floor on the Continental Shelf. Vertical tectonic displacements of the land relative to sea level that accompanied the earthquake affected virtually all the coastal communities. Tectonic subsidence of 5 to 6 feet, augmented locally by surficial subsidence of unconsolidated deposits required either the relocation or raising of structures at Portage, Girdwood, and Hope on Turnagain Arm. Shoreline submergence resulting from about 3½ feet of tectonic subsidence at Seldovia necessitated raising all waterfront facilities and the airstrip above the level of high tides. On the other hand, tectonic uplift of the land in the Prince Williams Sound region required deepening of the small-boat harbors at Cordora and Tatitlek, dredging of the waterways in the Cordova area, and lengthening of some docks or piers at Cordova, the Cape Hinchinbrook Light Station, and in Sawmill Bay. Significant structural damage from direct seismic shaking was largely confined to fluid containers and a pier facility near Kenai. Indirect damage from fissuring and differential settling of foundation mterials in the vicinity of the Cordova airfield mused damage to a building, underground utilities, an airfield fill, and the highway. Minor amounts of direct and indirect damage from seismic vibrations were sustained by most of the communities situated on unconsolidated deposits as far east as Yakutat, north to Fairbanks, and west to King Salmon. Except for a few cracked or toppled chimney, all the damage from shaking was confined to areas of thick, unconsolidated deposits. Foundation damage was almost entirely restricted to water-saturated unconsolidated deposits which, when liquefied by seismic shaking, could spread laterally toward free faces and (or) settle differentially through compaction.

Alaska

Geohydrology and water quality of the unconsolidated deposits in Erie County, Pennsylvania

Water in unconsolidated deposits is used for the water supplies of homes, farms, municipalities, and industries in Erie County. The unconsolidated deposits cover most of the bedrock of Erie County. Thickness of the unconsolidated deposits ranged from 60 to 400 feet at 30 sites surveyed by seismic refraction and reflection methods. Water wells, mostly in the unconsolidated deposits, provide adequate domestic supplies. Wells in fractured bedrock can generally provide small domestic supplies; however, droughts can affect some of the domestic water wells. Ground-water withdrawals accounted for 10 million gallons per day of the water used in Erie County in 1984. Mean annual precipitation ranged from 42 to 47 inches per year in Erie County from 1961 through 1990; the southeastern region of the county generally receives more precipitation than the lake shore region to the north. Overland runoff to three segments of the French Creek watershed in the upland area ranged from about 13 to 19 in. per year and base flow ranged from 14 to about 18 in. per year from 1975 to 1992. Evapotranspiration ranged from about 13 to 16 in. per year for those segments. Beach and outwash deposits generally provide the largest supplies of water to wells in Erie County. A median specific capacity of 17 (gal/min)/ft (gallons per minute per foot) of drawdown was determined from records of nondomestic wells in beach deposits and 9 (gal/min)/ft of drawdown in outwash. Mean specific capacity for wells in till deposits was 1.5 (gal/min)/ft. The range in yield and specific capacity, however, was great for the unconsolidated deposits and high yielding outwash deposits are sometimes difficult to locate beneath till and valley-fill deposits. Hydraulic conductivities from three aquifer tests of outwash deposits (sand and gravel) at separate sites ranged from 110 to 2,030 ft/d (feet per day). Hydraulic conductivities from another aquifer test of sand and silt in the water table at Presque Isle ranged from 120 to 215 ft/d. Transmissivities from a third aquifer test of beach sand and gravel ranged from 235 to 262 feet squared per day. Laboratory analyses of stream samples collected during base flows in 1987 and 1988 indicate that concentrations of arsenic, barium, cadmium, chromium, fluoride, lead, mercury, and selenium did not exceed the maximum contaminant levels (MCL's) established for drinking water by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA). Concentrations of two nontoxic elements, iron and manganese, exceeded USEPA secondary maximum contaminant levels (SMCL's) in samples from selected stream sites. Manganese concentrations exceeded the SMCL of 0.05 milligrams per liter at 19 of 30 stream sites sampled in the Upland Plateau Section of Erie County. Twenty-one wells were sampled for inorganic constituents and selected pesticides. Some samples from three of the wells exceeded the MCL for nitrate. Total arsenic concentrations above the MCL of 50 micrograms per liter were documented intermittently in three water wells in North East Township. Water from six of seven tile drains sampled in agricultural fields contained detectable concentrations of herbicides. These samples document the transport of the herbicides from the shallow ground-water system to local streams. Herbicide concentrations were at or more than minimum reporting levels for atrazine, cyanazine, prometone, and simazine. Atrazine concentrations in all seven samples from tile drains did not exceed the USEPA MCL of 3.0 micrograms per liter.

Water-Resources Investigations Report

Sensitivity of tsunami evacuation modeling to direction and land cover assumptions

Although anisotropic least-cost-distance (LCD) modeling is becoming a common tool for estimating pedestrian-evacuation travel times out of tsunami hazard zones, there has been insufficient attention paid to understanding model sensitivity behind the estimates. To support tsunami risk-reduction planning, we explore two aspects of LCD modeling as it applies to pedestrian evacuations and use the coastal community of Seward, Alaska, as our case study. First, we explore the sensitivity of modeling to the direction of movement by comparing standard safety-to-hazard evacuation times to hazard-to-safety evacuation times for a sample of 3985 points in Seward's tsunami-hazard zone. Safety-to-hazard evacuation times slightly overestimated hazard-to-safety evacuation times but the strong relationship to the hazard-to-safety evacuation times, slightly conservative bias, and shorter processing times of the safety-to-hazard approach make it the preferred approach. Second, we explore how variations in land cover speed conservation values (SCVs) influence model performance using a Monte Carlo approach with one thousand sets of land cover SCVs. The LCD model was relatively robust to changes in land cover SCVs with the magnitude of local model sensitivity greatest in areas with higher evacuation times or with wetland or shore land cover types, where model results may slightly underestimate travel times. This study demonstrates that emergency managers should be concerned not only with populations in locations with evacuation times greater than wave arrival times, but also with populations with evacuation times lower than but close to expected wave arrival times, particularly if they are required to cross wetlands or beaches.

Applied Geography

Coastal impacts, adaptation, and vulnerabilities: a technical input to the 2013 National Climate Assessment

The coast has long provided communities with a multitude of benefits including an abundance of natural resources that sustain economies, societies, and ecosystems. Coasts provide natural harbors for commerce, trade, and transportation; beaches and shorelines that attract residents and tourists; and wetlands and estuaries that are critical for fisheries and water resources. Coastal ecosystems provide critical functions to cycle and move nutrients, store carbon, detoxify wastes, and purify air and water. These areas also mitigate floods and buffer against coastal storms that bring high winds and salt water inland and erode the shore. Coastal regions are critical in the development, transportation, and processing of oil and natural gas resources and, more recently, are being explored as a source of energy captured from wind and waves. The many benefits and opportunities provided in coastal areas have strengthened our economic reliance on coastal resources. Consequently, the high demands placed on the coastal environment will increase commensurately with human activity. Because 35 U.S. states, commonwealths, and territories have coastlines that border the oceans or Great Lakes, impacts to coastline systems will reverberate through social, economic, and natural systems across the U.S. Impacts on coastal systems are among the most costly and most certain consequences of a warming climate (Nicholls et al., 2007). The warming atmosphere is expected to accelerate sea-level rise as a result of the decline of glaciers and ice sheets and the thermal expansion of sea water. As mean sea level rises, coastal shorelines will retreat and low-lying areas will tend to be inundated more frequently, if not permanently, by the advancing sea. As atmospheric temperature increases and rainfall patterns change, soil moisture and runoff to the coast are likely to be altered. An increase in the intensity of climatic extremes such as storms and heat spells, coupled with other impacts of climate change and the effects of human development, could affect the sustainability of many existing coastal communities and natural resources. This report, one of a series of technical inputs for the third NCA conducted under the auspices of the U.S. Global Change Research Program, examines the known effects and relationships of climate change variables on the coasts of the U.S. It describes the impacts on natural and human systems, including several major sectors of the U.S. economy, and the progress and challenges to planning and implementing adaptation options. Below we present the key findings from each chapter of the report, beginning with the following key findings from Chapter 1: Introduction and Context.

Book

A model integrating longshore and cross-shore processes for predicting long-term shoreline response to climate change

We present a shoreline change model for coastal hazard assessment and management planning. The model, CoSMoS-COAST (Coastal One-line Assimilated Simulation Tool), is a transect-based, one-line model that predicts short-term and long-term shoreline response to climate change in the 21 st century. The proposed model represents a novel, modular synthesis of process-based models of coastline evolution due to longshore and cross-shore transport by waves and sea-level rise. Additionally, the model uses an extended Kalman filter for data assimilation of historical shoreline positions to improve estimates of model parameters and thereby improve confidence in long-term predictions. We apply CoSMoS-COAST to simulate sandy shoreline evolution along 500 km of coastline in Southern California, which hosts complex mixtures of beach settings variably backed by dunes, bluffs, cliffs, estuaries, river mouths, and urban infrastructure, providing applicability of the model to virtually any coastal setting. Aided by data assimilation, the model is able to reproduce the observed signal of seasonal shoreline change for the hindcast period of 1995-2010, showing excellent agreement between modeled and observed beach states. The skill of the model during the hindcast period improves confidence in the model's predictive capability when applied to the forecast period (2010-2100) driven by GCM-projected wave and sea-level conditions. Predictions of shoreline change with limited human intervention indicate that 31% to 67% of Southern California beaches may become completely eroded by 2100 under sea-level rise scenarios of 0.93 to 2.0 m.

California