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Thermographic mosaic of Yellowstone National Park

An uncontrolled thermographic mosaic, which covers most of the area of Yellowstone National Park, has been compiled. The recording of aerial thermographic data on videotape is established as one of the prerequisites for the preparation of more accurate mosaics. Post-mission processing of the videotape record can rectify the nadir line to a topographic map base, correct for v/h variations in adjacent flight lines, correct for yaw distortions, rectify distortions caused by pitch, and rectify distortions produced by non-linearity of the side-wise scan. Installation of a thermal infrared scanning radiometer in a gyrostabilized mount and post-mission processing of the videotape record (principally rectification of side-wise scan distortion) would yield a controlled, photogrammetrically accurate thermographic mosaic. However, the techniques used in the preparation of the uncontrolled thermographic mosaic of Yellowstone National Park can be immediately applied to the preparation of regional thermographic mosaics, important to geologists and other scientists and engineers in studies of geothermal and volcanic areas, and to other types of environmental investigations such as pollution studies of large water bodies (e.g., harbors, estuaries, lakes, etc.), where a precise planimetric image is not critical.

Idaho;Montana;Wyoming

Thematic mapper: detailed radiometric and geometric characteristics

Those radiometric characteristics of the Landsat 4 Thematic Mapper (TM) that can be established without absolute calibration of spectral data have been examined. Subscenes of radiometric all raw data (B-data) were examined on an individual detector basis: areas of uniform radiance were used to characterize subtle radiometric differences and noise problems. A variety of anomalies have been discovered with magnitude of a few digital levels or less: the only problem not addressable by ground processing is irregular width of the digital levels. Essentially all of this non-ideal performance is incorporated in the fully processed (P-type) images, but disguised by the geometric resampling procedure. The overall performance of the Thematic Mapper is a great improvement over previous Landsat scanners. The effective resolution in radiance is degraded by about a factor of two by irregular width of the digital levels. Several detectors have a change of gain with a period of several scans, the largest effect is about 4%. These detectors appear to switch between two response levels during scan direction reversal; there is no apparent periodicity to these changes. This can cause small apparent difference between forward and reverse scans for portions of an image. The high-frequency noise level of each detector was characterized by the standard deviation of the first derivative in the sample direction across a flat field. Coherent sinusoidal noise patterns were determined using one-dimensional Fourier transforms. A "stitching" pattern in Band 1 has a period of 13.8 samples with a peak-to-peak amplitude ranging from 1 to 5 DN. Noise with a period of 3.24 samples is pronounced for most detectors in band 1, to a lesser extent in bands 2, 3, and 4, and below background noise levels in bands 5, 6, and 7. The geometric fidelity of the GSFC film writer used for Thematic Mapper (TM) images was assessed by measurement with accuracy bette than three micrometers of a test grid. A set of 55 control points with known UTM coordinates was measured on a digital display of part of band 5 of the TM image of the Washington, D.C. area and fitted to the control points. The standard error of the fit of the TM image to the control is 37 meters, or 1.3 pixels, with no consistent distortion. These test indicate that the geometric fidelity of TM images is likely to be higher than the ability of film recorders to reproduce the images.

Pecora VIII Symposium

Filling Landsat ETM+ SLC-off gaps using a segmentation model approach

The purpose of this article is to present a methodology for filling Landsat Scan Line Corrector (SLC)-off gaps with same-scene spectral data guided by a segmentation model. Failure of the SLC on the Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) instrument resulted in a loss of approximately 25 percent of the spectral data. The missing data span across most of the image with scan gaps varying in size from two pixels near the center of the image to 14 pixels along the east and west edges. Even with the scan gaps, the radiometric and geometric qualities of the remaining portions of the image still meet design specifications and therefore contain useful information (see http:// landsat7.usgs.gov for additional information). The U.S. Geological Survey EROS Data Center (EDC) is evaluating several techniques to fill the gaps in SLC-off data to enhance the usability of the imagery (Howard and Lacasse 2004) (PE&RS, August 2004). The method presented here uses a segmentation model approach that allows for same-scene spectral data to be used to fill the gaps. The segment model is generated from a complete satellite image with no missing spectral data (e.g., Landsat 5, Landsat 7 SLCon, SPOT). The model is overlaid on the Landsat SLC-off image, and the missing data within the gaps are then estimated using SLC-off spectral data that intersect the segment boundary. A major advantage of this approach is that the gaps are filled using spectral data derived from the same SLC-off satellite image.

Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing

Using passive integrated transponder (PIT) systems for terrestrial detection of blue-spotted salamanders (Ambystoma laterale) in situ

Pure-diploid Blue-spotted Salamanders ( Ambystoma laterale ) are the smallest members of the family Ambystomatidae which makes tracking with radio-transmitters difficult because of small battery capacity. Passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags provide another tracking approach for small fossorial animals such as salamanders. We evaluated the use of portable PIT tag readers (PIT packs) to detect PIT tag-implanted pure-diploid Blue-spotted Salamanders in situ. We also examined the detection probability of salamanders with PIT tags held in enclosures in wetland and terrestrial habitats, as well as the underground detection range of PIT packs by scanning for buried tags not implanted into salamanders. Of the 532 PIT tagged salamanders, we detected 6.84% at least once during scanning surveys. We scanned systematically within a 13.37 ha area surrounding a salamander breeding pool on 34 occasions (~119 hours of survey time) and detected PIT tags 74 times. We detected 55% of PITs in tagged salamanders and 45%were expelled tags. We were able to reliably detect buried PIT tags from 1–22cm below the ground surface. Because nearly half the locations represented expelled tags, our data suggest this technique is inappropriate for future studies of pure-diploid Blue-spotted Salamanders, although it may be suitable for polyploid Blue-spotted Salamanders and other ambystomatid species, which are larger in size and may exhibit higher tag retention rates. It may also be prudent to conduct long-term tag retention studies in captivity before tagging and releasing salamanders for in situ study, and to double-mark individuals.

Herpetological Conservation and Biology

Upwelling and the persistence of coral-reef frameworks in the eastern tropical Pacific

In an era of global change, the fate and form of reef habitats will depend on shifting assemblages of organisms and their responses to multiple stressors. Multiphyletic assemblages of calcifying and bioeroding species contribute to a dynamic balance between constructive and erosive processes, and reef-framework growth occurs only when calcium-carbonate deposition exceeds erosion. Each contributing species exhibits a unique combination of environmental sensitivities, trophic needs, and competitive abilities, making the net outcome of their habitat-altering behavior difficult to predict. In this study, standardized blocks of clean, massive Porites were placed at six reef sites in the eastern tropical Pacific, in the strongly and more-weakly upwelling Gulfs of Panamá (GoP) and Chiriquí (GoC), respectively. Sites were chosen to characterize the unique thermal and carbonate-chemistry conditions of each gulf. Satellite products were used to examine differences in sea-surface productivity, and surveys were conducted to quantify the abundance of important grazing taxa. After two years in situ, the Porites blocks were collected and scanned using high-resolution computed tomography to volumetrically quantify both endolithic and epilithic habitat alteration. Scan-volumes were further classified into functional groups according to morphology to quantify external bioerosion by fish and sea urchins, as well as the calcifying and bioeroding activity of crustose coralline algae, scleractinian corals, mollusks, annelids, and barnacles. The GoP, which has higher productivity, cooler temperatures, and periodically lower pH conditions, had higher rates of macroboring, but also higher rates of calcification. These unexpectedly higher rates of calcification in the GoP were a result of high recruitment of suspension-feeding taxa, particularly barnacles and vermiform fauna that have poor reef-forming potential. External bioerosion by grazers was the dominant process influencing these dead coral substrates across both gulfs, contributing to higher rates of net erosion in the GoC and underscoring the important roles that urchins and fish play in not just removing algae on reefs, but also eroding reef habitat. Ultimately these findings reveal that the trophic requirements of habitat-altering taxa are closely tied to reef-framework stability, and that environmental conditions conducive to carbonate precipitation are not necessarily those that will lead to habitat persistence.

Ecological Monographs

Morphology and composition of Goldeye (Hiodontidae; Hiodon alosoides) otoliths

We provide up-to-date morphological and compositional data on otoliths of the osteoglossomorph Goldeye ( Hiodon alosoides ). Using computed tomography (CT) X-ray, we documented the location of each of the three pairs of otoliths (lapilli, sagittae, and asterisci) in relation to the swim bladder, which extended forward in close proximity to the sagittae and asterisci. The lappili were the largest otoliths in terms of surface area and volume, but the sagittae were highly modified, appearing spiral in shape when viewed dorsally, with a surface area to volume ratio more than double that of the lapilli. Using scanning electron microscopy, the surface of each otolith was viewable in great detail, and small otoconia (~10.5 μm diameter) were observed on each, but were most numerous on the sagittae. On scanning electron micrographs, the sagittae appeared to be bi-lobed, with asymmetrical lobes each oriented in the same general direction. Using neutron and X-ray diffraction methods, we found three polymorphs of calcium carbonate crystals (aragonite, vaterite, and calcite), sometimes all within the same otolith. However, in general, lapilli and sagittae were composed predominately of aragonite whereas asterisci were composed chiefly of vaterite. With these results, we provide information on a unique species, whose inclusion in future studies would benefit our understanding of fish hearing, fish evolution, and fisheries ecology.

Journal of Morphology

Spawning run estimates and phenology for an extremely small population of Atlantic Sturgeon in the Marshyhope Creek–Nanticoke River system, Chesapeake Bay

Objective Once thought to be extirpated from the Chesapeake Bay, fall spawning runs of Atlantic Sturgeon Acipenser oxyrinchus have been rediscovered in the Marshyhope Creek (MC)–Nanticoke River (NR) system of Maryland, United States. High recapture rates in past telemetry surveys suggested a small population in the two connected tributaries. This study aims to generate estimates of abundance and understand within system connectivity for spawning runs in 2020 and 2021. Methods Data from mobile side-scan sonar surveys and detections of acoustically tagged adults on stationary telemetry receivers were analyzed in an integrated model to estimate spawning season abundance and examine run timing and system connectivity for this population. An array of acoustic receivers was deployed throughout the MC–NR system to monitor the movement of tagged fish during the spawning run period from mid-August to late October. Side-scan sonar surveys were conducted weekly in September in an area of high spawner aggregation to generate count data on spawning run abundance. Result In 2020 and 2021, 32 (95% credible interval [CRI] = 23–47) and 70 (95% CRI = 49–105) Atlantic Sturgeon, respectively, used the MC–NR system. The lower estimate for 2020 coincided with an earlier end to the spawning run related to cooler September temperatures in that year. Conclusion In both years, high spawning run connectivity between MC and the upper NR was observed. Overall, run estimates supported previous hypotheses that the MC–NR system supports a very small population and that both MC and the upper NR serve as important areas for spawning activity.

Chesapeake Bay, Marshyhope Creek–Nanticoke River s

Use of modern infrared thermography for wildlife population surveys

A commercially available thermal-infrared scanning system was used to survey populations of several wildlife species. The system's ability to detect species of different sizes in varying habitats relative to conventional survey methods, to differentiate between species in the same habitat, and the influence of environmental factors on operational aspects of employing this technology in the field were evaluated. Total costs for the surveys were approximately $0.36/ha. There were marked discrepancies in the counts of untrained observers and those from trained analysis. Computer-assisted analysis of infrared imagery recorded 52% fewer deer than were estimated from drive counts, and densities of moose were five times those estimated from conventional aerial methods. By flying concentric circles and using telephoto, detailed counts of turkeys and deer were possible. With the aid of computer-assisted analysis, infrared thermography may become a useful wildlife population survey tool. More research is needed to verify the actual efficiency of detection by combining aerial scans with ground truthing for a variely of species and habitals.

Environmental Management

Phase relations in the system NaCl-KCl-H 2 O II: Differential thermal analysis of the halite liquidus in the NaCl-H 2 O binary above 450°c

Thermal analysis of the halite liquidus in the system NaCl-H 2 O has been conducted for NaCl mole fractions ( X NaCl ) greater than 0.25 ( i.e. , > 50 wt. % NaCl) at pressures between 0.3 and 4.1 kb and temperatures greater than 450&deg;C. The position of the liquidus was located by differential thermal analysis (DTA) of cooling scans only, as heating scans did not produce definitive DTA peaks. The dP/dT slope of the liquidus is positive and steep at high pressures, but at high X NaCl , and pressures below 0.5 kb it appears to reverse slope and intersects the three-phase curve (liquid-halite-vapour) at a shallow angle. However, due to the complex nature of the DTA signal when P <- 0.5 kb, there is considerable doubt about exactly what event has been recorded in the experiments conducted at these low pressures. The solubility of halite can be expressed as a function of the mole-fractional-based activity of NaCl in the liquid phase ( L ) in temperature (T, &deg;K) and pressure (P, bars) In Our liquidus data (based on 10 compositions) above 500 bars for these brines were combined with this equation to generate activity coefficients of NaCl which were fit within their experimental uncertainties to the following one parameter Margules equation In . Concentrated solutions of NaCl show negative deviations from ideality which rapidly increase in magnitude with decreasing X NaCl .

Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta

Deformation microstructures of Barre granite: An optical, Sem and Tem study

New scanning electron microscope techniques have been developed for characterizing ductile deformation microstructures in felsic rocks. In addition, the thermomechanical history of the macroscopically undeformed Barre granite (Vermont, U.S.A.) has been reconstructed based on examination of deformation microstructures using optical microscopy, scanning electron microscopy, and transmission electron microscopy. The microstructures reveal three distinct events: 1. (1) a low-stress, high-temperature event that produced subgrains in feldspars, and subgrains and recrystallized grains in quartz; 2. (2) a high-stress, low-temperature event that produced a high dislocation density in quartz and feldspars; and 3. (3) a lowest-temperature event that produced cracks, oriented primarily along cleavage planes in feldspars, and parallel to the macroscopic rift in quartz. The first two events are believed to reflect various stages in the intrusion and cooling history of the pluton, and the last may be related to the last stages of cooling, or to later tectonism.

Vermont

Organic geochemistry and toxicology of a stream impacted by unconventional oil and gas wastewater disposal operations

Water and sediment extracts samples were analyzed for extractable hydrocarbons by gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (GC/MS) using an Agilent (Agilent Technologies, Palo Alto, CA, USA) 7890 series GC and 5975 electron ionization (EI) mass selective detector (MSD) operated in scan mode. Agilent ChemStation software was used for data acquisition and analysis (version E.02.00.493 on GC/MS computer and version F.01.03.2357 on laptop for data workup). A 30 m x 250 m x 0.25 m HP-5MS column (95% dimethyl 5% diphenyl polydimethylsiloxane) was used for GC/MS under the following conditions: 1.0 L splitless injection, constant flow of 0.7 mL/min, solvent delay of 7.5 min, injector temperature of 280C, interface at 300C, temperature program of 50-150C at 7C/min, 150-230C at 6C/min, and 230-300C at 3C/min with mass scanned from 35-500 Da.

West Virginia

Relating systematic compositional variability to the textural occurrence of solid bitumen in shales

This study presents Raman spectroscopic data paired with scanning electron microscopy (SEM) images to assess solid bitumen composition as a function of solid bitumen texture and association with minerals. A series of hydrous pyrolysis experiments (1–103 days, 300–370 °C) using a low maturity (0.25% solid bitumen reflectance, BR o ), high total organic carbon [(TOC), 14.0 wt%] New Albany Shale sample as the starting material yielded pyrolysis residues designed to evaluate the evolution of solid bitumen aromaticity with increasing temperature and heating duration. Solid bitumen was analyzed by Raman spectroscopy wherein point data were collected from accumulations that ranged in size and degree of association with the mineral matrix. Raman spectroscopy results show that with increasing temperature and experimental duration, solid bitumen aromaticity increases and compositional variability decreases. With regards to texture and composition, coarser-grained solid bitumen (>1.3 μm from nearest mineral grain) has consistently higher, but less variable aromaticity than thinner, wispy solid bitumen which is more intimately associated with the mineral matrix. Collocated scanning electron microscope images were used to provide qualitative assessments of porosity hosted by the organic matter. These paired data sets suggest that solid bitumen porosity development and molecular composition are linked, and these parameters are related to the textural relationships of the organic matter within the whole rock. These results are discussed with perspective towards understanding how rock fabric and texture can influence organic matter evolution during thermal maturation of organic-rich marine shales and inform our broader understanding of these important energy resources.

International Journal of Coal Geology

Pore systems and organic petrology of cretaceous Mowry and Niobrara source-rock reservoirs, Powder River Basin, Wyoming, USA

The Powder River Basin (PRB) is a world-class oil province, in large part thanks to contributions from premier source rocks, Cretaceous Mowry and Niobrara shales. Both formations are also unconventional reservoirs. A critical aspect of evaluating production potential and finding sweet spots is the nature of the pore systems in these fine-grained source-rock reservoirs. Variation by stratigraphic interval is important for selecting optimum target zones for horizontal wells. Understanding variation in pore type, size, and connectivity and relationships with mineralogy and fabric help in determining prospectivity in different parts of the basin. Deciphering controls on pore-system development helps predict intervals and locations of optimum reservoir quality. Imaging of Niobrara and Mowry samples from a range of thermal maturities provided observations and data on pore systems, organic matter (OM) types and associations with mineralogy and fabric, wettability, and microporosity associated with both diagenetic and detrital clays. Imaging techniques included scanning electron microscopy, organic petrography and correlative scanning electron microscopy, and mapping of mineralogy through energy dispersive spectroscopy. Mean solid bitumen (BR o ) and vitrinite reflectance (VR o ) values indicate all samples are in the oil window with values ranging from 0.52 to 1.15%. Organic fluorescence is prominent in amorphous OM, solid bitumen and some vitrinite in the early oil window. The fluorescence is extinguished at higher thermal maturity. Carbonate pellets (in Niobrara) mainly contain migrated solid bitumen and residual live oil and little or no terrigenous OM (vitrinite and inertinite). However, terrigenous OM is common in siliceous/argillaceous laminae in both formations, where it occurs with amorphous OM, some of which has converted in situ to a solid bitumen petroleum residue. One key finding is the widespread presence of migrated OM at very early oil window maturity. Distribution of such OM and associated wettability alteration is fabric-controlled, at all levels of thermal maturity studied. Clay morphology and abundance and supporting rigid mineral grain framework strongly influence pore development, preservation, and connectivity in both formations. Carbonate content is a good proxy for reservoir quality in Niobrara intervals due to association of porous solid bitumen with calcareous fecal pellets. High recrystallized microquartz content is associated with the best reservoir intervals in the Mowry.

Wyoming

Estimating vegetation biomass and cover across large plots in shrub and grass dominated drylands using terrestrial lidar and machine learning

Terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) has been shown to enable an efficient, precise, and non-destructive inventory of vegetation structure at ranges up to hundreds of meters. We developed a method that leverages TLS collections with machine learning techniques to model and map canopy cover and biomass of several classes of short-stature vegetation across large plots. We collected high-definition TLS scans of 26 1-ha plots in desert grasslands and big sagebrush shrublands in southwest Idaho, USA. We used the Random Forests machine learning algorithm to develop decision tree models predicting the biomass and canopy cover of several vegetation classes from statistical descriptors of the aboveground heights of TLS points. Manual measurements of vegetation characteristics collected within each plot served as training and validation data. Models based on five or fewer TLS descriptors of vegetation heights were developed to predict the canopy cover fraction of shrubs (R 2 = 0.77, RMSE = 7%), annual grasses (R 2 = 0.70, RMSE = 21%), perennial grasses (R 2 = 0.36, RMSE = 12%), forbs (R 2 = 0.52, RMSE = 6%), bare earth or litter (R 2 = 0.49, RMSE = 19%), and the biomass of shrubs (R 2 = 0.71, RMSE = 175 g) and herbaceous vegetation (R 2 = 0.61, RMSE = 99 g) (all values reported are out-of-bag). Our models explained much of the variability between predictions and manual measurements, and yet we expect that future applications could produce even better results by reducing some of the methodological sources of error that we encountered. Our work demonstrates how TLS can be used efficiently to extend manual measurement of vegetation characteristics from small to large plots in grasslands and shrublands, with potential application to other similarly structured ecosystems. Our method shows that vegetation structural characteristics can be modeled without classifying and delineating individual plants, a challenging and time-consuming step common in previous methods applying TLS to vegetation inventory. Improving application of TLS to studies of shrub-steppe ecosystems will serve immediate management needs by enhancing vegetation inventories, environmental modeling studies, and the ability to train broader datasets collected from air and space.

Idaho

Climate matching with the climatchR R package

Climate matching allows comparisons of climatic conditions between different locations to understand location and species range climatic suitability. The approach may be used as part of horizon scanning exercises such as those conducted for invasive species. We implemented the CLIMATCH algorithm into an R package, climatchR . The package allows automated and scripted climate matching exercises across all steps from downloading data to summarizing species climate matches. We also show how climatchR may be used with high-throughput computing to process many species. For example, we were able to calculate climate scores for over 8,000 species in less than 3 days using this package. This automation allows high-throughput processing of species data, a new development for improving the efficiency and speed of climate matching and horizon scanning.

Environmental Software & Modeling

Generation of a pseudo-2D shear-wave velocity section by inversion of a series of 1D dispersion curves

Multichannel Analysis of Surface Waves utilizes a multichannel recording system to estimate near-surface shear (S)-wave velocities from high-frequency Rayleigh waves. A pseudo-2D S-wave velocity (vS) section is constructed by aligning 1D models at the midpoint of each receiver spread and using a spatial interpolation scheme. The horizontal resolution of the section is therefore most influenced by the receiver spread length and the source interval. The receiver spread length sets the theoretical lower limit and any vS structure with its lateral dimension smaller than this length will not be properly resolved in the final vS section. A source interval smaller than the spread length will not improve the horizontal resolution because spatial smearing has already been introduced by the receiver spread. In this paper, we first analyze the horizontal resolution of a pair of synthetic traces. Resolution analysis shows that (1) a pair of traces with a smaller receiver spacing achieves higher horizontal resolution of inverted S-wave velocities but results in a larger relative error; (2) the relative error of the phase velocity at a high frequency is smaller than at a low frequency; and (3) a relative error of the inverted S-wave velocity is affected by the signal-to-noise ratio of data. These results provide us with a guideline to balance the trade-off between receiver spacing (horizontal resolution) and accuracy of the inverted S-wave velocity. We then present a scheme to generate a pseudo-2D S-wave velocity section with high horizontal resolution using multichannel records by inverting high-frequency surface-wave dispersion curves calculated through cross-correlation combined with a phase-shift scanning method. This method chooses only a pair of consecutive traces within a shot gather to calculate a dispersion curve. We finally invert surface-wave dispersion curves of synthetic and real-world data. Inversion results of both synthetic and real-world data demonstrate that inverting high-frequency surface-wave dispersion curves - by a pair of traces through cross-correlation with phase-shift scanning method and with the damped least-square method and the singular-value decomposition technique - can feasibly achieve a reliable pseudo-2D S-wave velocity section with relatively high horizontal resolution. ?? 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Journal of Applied Geophysics

Shallow-water pockmark formation in temperate estuaries: A consideration of origins in the western gulf of Maine with special focus on Belfast Bay

A systematic mapping program incorporating more than 5000 km of side scan sonar and seismic reflection tracklines in the western Gulf of Maine has identified more than 70 biogenic natural gas deposits, occupying 311 km 2 in nearshore muddy embayments. Many of these embayments also contain pockmark fields, with some exhibiting geologically active characteristics including the observance of plumes of escaping fluids and sediment. Pockmarks, hemispherically shaped depressions of various size and depths, formed through fluid escape of gas and/or pore water, are sometimes found within or outside gas fields, although many gas fields lack pockmarks altogether. Although the origin of the natural gas remains unclear, if coastal environments at times of lower sea level were similar to the present, numerous lake, wetland, valley fill and estuarine sources of organic-rich material may have formed on the inner shelf. If these deposits survived transgression and remain buried, they are potential gas sources. Intensive mapping of the Belfast Bay pockmark field in 1998 produced the first nearly continuous side scan sonar mosaic of a Gulf of Maine pockmark field with a corresponding 3-dimensional geological model generated from seismic data. Statistical analysis of pockmark geometry, gas deposit loci, and subsurface evidence for gas-enhanced reflectors suggest that gas migration from deeper lateral sources along permeable subsurface strata may be the mechanism for pockmark formation in areas lacking gas-curtain seismic reflections. The coarse-grained transgressive ravinement unconformity between Pleistocene glacial-marine mud and Holocene mud may act as a conduit for distributing methane to the field's margins. ?? 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Marine Geology

Unfamiliar territory: Emerging themes for ecological drought research and management

Novel forms of drought are emerging globally, due to climate change, shifting teleconnection patterns, expanding human water use, and a history of human influence on the environment that increases the probability of transformational ecological impacts. These costly ecological impacts cascade to human communities, and understanding this changing drought landscape is one of today’s grand challenges. By using a modified horizon-scanning approach that integrated scientists, managers, and decision-makers, we identified the emerging issues in ecological drought that represent key challenges to timely and effective responses. Here we review the themes that most urgently need attention, including novel drought conditions, the potential for transformational drought impacts, and the need for anticipatory drought management. This horizon scan and review provides a roadmap to facilitate the research and management innovations that will support forward-looking, co-developed approaches to reduce the risk of drought to our socio-ecological systems during the 21 st century.

One Earth