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At least 181 records · Page 10Linked to original sources
USGS2022

Modeling the dynamics of lahars that originate as landslides on the west side of Mount Rainier, Washington

Large lahars pose substantial threats to people and property downstream from Mount Rainier volcano in Washington State. Geologic evidence indicates that these threats exist even during the absence of volcanic activity and that the threats are highest in the densely populated Puyallup and Nisqually River valleys on the west side of the volcano. However, the precise character of these threats can be difficult to anticipate. To help predict depths and rates of possible lahar inundation in the area, this report presents the results of simulations of hypothetical future lahars that originate high on the west side of Mount Rainier and travel downstream into the Puyallup and Nisqually River valleys. Many of the results portrayed as still images in the figures of this report are also available as animated files that can be accessed at the web address provided in the figure captions. We simulated eight scenarios, including worst-case scenarios in which the simulated lahars are similar in size and mobility to the approximately 260 million cubic meter (Mm 3 ; 340 million cubic yard) Electron Mudflow lahar that descended from Mount Rainier and inundated the Puyallup River valley about 500 years ago. The other six scenarios place the worst-case scenarios in perspective by simulating lahars that originate from the same source areas but have smaller volumes or lesser mobilities. We perform our simulations using an open-source software package that we developed called D-Claw. The numerical model composing the kernel of D-Claw solves a system of five hyperbolic partial differential equations that describe the depth-averaged dynamics of static or flowing grain-fluid mixtures interacting with three-dimensional topography. In D-Claw, the volume fraction occupied by solid grains is a dependent variable that can freely evolve, enabling simulation of landslide liquefaction and of lahar interaction with static bodies of water. The latter feature facilitates a seamless simulation of a lahar in the Nisqually River valley entering Alder Lake reservoir. In the event of an approximately 260 Mm 3 high-mobility lahar originating on the west side of Mount Rainier, our results point to two areas of pronounced hazard. One area, comprising the densely populated lowlands of Orting, Washington, and environs, could be inundated by lahars originating from either the Sunset Amphitheater or Tahoma Glacier headwall areas. In the worst-case scenario we consider for the Orting lowlands, which involves a 260 Mm 3 high-mobility lahar originating from a landslide in the Sunset Amphitheater, a flow front approximately 4 meters deep and traveling about 4 meters per second reaches the Orting lowlands about 1 hour after the onset of slope failure. After passing through the Orting lowlands, the simulated lahar slows down and comes to rest in the valleys surrounding Sumner and Puyallup. A second area of pronounced hazard is the stretch of the Nisqually River valley beginning in Mount Rainier National Park and extending downstream to Alder Lake reservoir and Alder Dam. This area would be substantially affected in the worst-case scenario that involves a 260 Mm 3 high-mobility lahar originating from the Tahoma Glacier headwall area—the locality identified by a previous study as the sector of Mount Rainier most prone to large-scale gravitational collapse. The simulated lahar passes through the area of Ashford, Washington, within about 20 minutes of the onset of slope failure and reaches the head of Alder Lake within about 50 minutes. The lahar ultimately displaces enough reservoir water to cause overtopping of the 100 meter (330 foot) tall Alder Dam, but consequences of such dam overtopping are not addressed in this report.

Washington↗
USGS1999

Mapping the glacial geology of the Central Great Lakes region in three dimensions: A model for state-federal cooperation

Planners need to evaluate complex and competing public-policy options for managing water, land, and biological resources; they must ensure economic growth, meet the needs of an increasing population, assess hazards, and manage the environment in a sustainable manner. The State Geological Surveys of Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) receive many requests from local, State, and Federal planners and officials for geologic information. Thick and complex layers of glacial and related sediments blanket the bedrock of these States: a three-dimensional understanding of these deposits is critical to making informed resource-management and other planning decisions. At two recent forums (in Indianapolis, March 1997, and Columbus, Ohio, February 1999), more than 200 attendees from more than 60 local, State, and Federal agencies provided a clear message. They need three-dimensional geologic information to use in making decisions on the following issues: • Quality, quantity, distribution, and accessibility of surface and ground water • Aggregate sources and land-use conflicts • Energy and mineral resource management • Environmental management and mitigation of land and water contamination • Acceleration of the permitting processes of regulatory agencies • Industrial, commercial, residential, and infrastructure siting and construction • Agricultural land loss, erosion, sedimentation, and agrichemical use • Waste-disposal planning and mitigation • Habitat alteration and biodiversity • Coastal erosion, landslides, radon, floods, and earthquakes

Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio↗
USGS1974

A review of the literature on the use of Bayluscide in fisheries

In the United States Bayluscide has had multiple uses. The 70% wettable powder has been used in Puerto Rico for snail control and the 5% granular formulation has been tested in Michigan and Wisconsin against freshwater snails serving as inter mediate hosts of the trematode causing swimmers' itch. Bayluscide has also been used in field trials as a fish toxicant. Its most important use in North America, however, has been to control sea lampreys, Petromyzon marinus, in the Great Lakes, a necessary prerequisite for the restoration of Great Lakes sport and commercial fisheries. Since 1966 the 5% granular formulation has been used by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and the Canadian Department of Environment as a toxicant to survey populations of larval sea lampreys in Great Lakes estuaries and deepwater tributaries. The Canadian Government also uses Bayluscide to control sea lampreys, but in the United States the present registration restricts use to population surveys only. Literature on the mixtures of Bayluscide and the selective lamprey toxicant, TFM, used since 1964 by both the U.S. and Canadian agencies to control larval sea lampreys in the Great Lakes, has been reviewed elsewhere and is not included in this review.

Literature Review↗
USGS2019

Effects of high flow experiments on warm-water native and nonnative fishes

The harsh environmental conditions and extreme flooding that created Grand Canyon also shaped the unique native fish that evolved in the Colorado River. Native fish have evolved their physiology, morphology and behavior to withstand high flood events. Flooding has been shown to benefit spawning, survival and recruitment of juvenile native fishes in many southwestern rivers. Annual pre-dam flooding on the Colorado River was sometimes more than double the flows released during a typical High-Flow Experiment (HFE). It is therefore unlikely that the 3-4 days of high flow created by HFEs will have negative impacts on native fish directly. However, HFEs can cause dispersal of flood adapted non-native species like green sunfish that utilize floods to invade and colonize new environments. Continued efforts to reduce known populations of green sunfish that inhabit backwater ponds before conducting HFEs may be necessary to reduce risks of spreading invasive green sunfish downstream.

Arizona↗
USGS2018

Natural hazards in Goma and the surrounding villages, East African Rift System

The city of Goma and its surrounding villages (Democratic Republic of the Congo, DRC) are among the world’s most densely populated regions strongly affected by volcanic hazards. In 2002, Nyiragongo volcano erupted destroying 10–15% of Goma and forced a mass evacuation of the population. Hence, the ~ 1.5 million inhabitants of Goma and Gisenyi (Rwanda) continue to live with the threat of new lava flows and other eruptive hazards from this volcano. The current network of fractures extends from Nyiragongo summit to Goma and continues beneath Lake Kivu, which gives rise to the fear that an eruption could even produce an active vent within the center of Goma or within the lake. A sub-lacustrine volcanic eruption with vents in the floor of the main basin and/or Kabuno Bay of Lake Kivu could potentially release about 300 km 3 of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and 60 km 3 of methane (CH 4 ) dissolved in its deep waters that would be catastrophic to populations (~ 2.5 million people) along the lake shores. For the time being, ongoing hazards related to Nyiragongo and Nyamulagira volcanoes silently kill people and animals, slowly destroy the environment, and seriously harm the health of the population. They include mazuku (CO 2 -rich locations where people often die of asphyxiation), the highly fluoridated surface and ground waters, and other locally neglected hazards. The volcanic gas plume causes poor air quality and acid rain, which is commonly used for drinking water. Given the large number of people at risk and the continued movement of people to Goma and the surrounding villages, there is an urgent need for a thorough natural hazards assessment in the region. This paper presents a general view of natural hazards in the region around Goma based on field investigations, CO 2 measurements in mazuku, and chemistry data for Lake Kivu, rivers and rainwater. The field investigations and the datasets are used in conjunction with extremely rich-historical (1897–2000) and recently published information about Nyiragongo and Nyamulagira volcanoes and Lake Kivu. We also present maps of mazuku and fractures in Goma, describe the volcanic eruption history with hazard assessment and mitigation implications, and consider social realities useful for an integrated risk management strategy.

Goma↗
USGS2001

The role of native birds and other wildlife on the emergence of zoonotic diseases

Wildlife can be an important source of transmission of infectious disease to humans. One potential transmission route involves hunting and fishing, both common activities in the United States and worldwide. For example, during 1996, approximately 11 million Americans, about 40 percent of the total population 16 years of age and older, took part in some recreational activity relating to wildlife and fish. Another potential route of infection focuses on urban and suburban environments. These locations are of special concern because of their increasing role as wildlife habitat, the greater interface between humans and wildlife that takes place within those environments, the paucity of knowledge about disease in those wildlife populations, and the general lack of orderly management for wildlife within those environments. In the wild, several trends are contributing to the growing importance of zoonotic diseases. First, the spectrum of infectious diseases affecting wildlife today is greater than at any time during the previous century. Second, the occurrence of infectious diseases has changed, from sporadic, self-limiting outbreaks that generally resulted in minor losses to frequently occurring events that generally result in major losses of wildlife. Third, disease emergence has occurred on a worldwide scale in a broad spectrum of wildlife species and habitats. Given the scope of the problem, current disease surveillance efforts are inadequate. Few state wildlife agencies allocate personnel and resources to address wildlife disease, despite their statutory responsibility for managing nonmigratory wildlife. Some state agencies provide minimal support for regional programs based at universities. At the federal level, the primary surveillance effort is conducted by the National Wildlife Health Center, operated by the U.S. Geological Survey. Outside of government, some veterinary schools, agriculture diagnostic laboratories, and other programs provide additional information on animal diseases, primarily by examining carcasses of dead wildlife submitted for analysis, and individual university-based researchers carry out a variety of studies. Typically, information about the occurrence of disease in free-ranging wildlife is derived from surveys and mortality events in areas where wildlife observations by agencies and the public are frequent enough to detect their occurrence before carcasses are removed by scavengers and predatory animals. The result is that disease occurrence is grossly underreported, heavily biased toward mortality events, and biased toward species of special concern and interest, such as game and endangered species. Therefore, the available information should be viewed as the “proverbial tip of the iceberg” relative to disease activity within wildlife populations.

National Academy of Science.↗
USGS2019

Morphology and genetics of Lythrum salicaria from latitudinal gradients of the Northern Hemisphere grown in cold and hot common gardens

The aim of this project was to compare the phenotypic responses of global populations of Lythrum salicaria in cold/dry and hot/humid environments to determine if phenotypic plasticity varied between the native and invasive ranges, and secondarily if this variation was linked to genetic diversity. Common garden studies were conducted in Třeboň, Czech Republic, and Lafayette, Louisiana, USA (cold/dry vs. hot/humid garden, respectively), using populations from latitudinal gradients in Eurasia and North America. Lythrum salicaria seeds collected from the same maternal plants across these latitudinal gradients were germinated and grown in Třeboň and Lafayette. Tissue masses (above-, below-ground, inflorescence and total) of these individuals were assessed at the end of each growing season (2006–2008). Worldwide field measurements of L . salicaria height were made by volunteers from 2004–2016. Biomass and height data were analyzed using the General Linear Model framework and multivariate techniques. Molecular markers (amplified fragment length polymorphisms) of individuals used in the common garden study were analyzed using traditional genetic diversity metrics and Bayesian clustering algorithms in STRUCTURE. Reaction norms were developed from differences in maternal plant responses in Třeboň versus Lafayette. In the common garden studies, stem/leaf, root and total biomass generally were highest for individuals grown from seeds collected in the southern part of the range in the cold garden, particularly by the third year of the study. In contrast, inflorescence biomass in the cold garden was higher by the third year in individuals from mid-latitude populations. As measured by volunteers, plants were taller in Eurasia than in North America moving from north to south with the pattern switching southward of 40°N latitude. Genetic diversity was similar between native and non-native invasive populations regardless of geographical origin of the seed and was not significantly different in the GLM Select model (p > 0.05). Reaction norm slopes showed that Eurasia had larger values than North America for reaction norms for above-ground and total biomass. Plants from the seeds of mother plants from Turkey had wide variation in total biomass when grown in Třeboň versus Lafayette; this variation in response within certain populations may have contributed to the lack of population-level differences in plasticity. These results indicate no loss of genetic diversity for L . salicaria during its North American invasion, nor reduction in plastic tissue allocation responses to a varying environment, which may help explain some of its invasive qualities and which could be of adaptive value under changing future environments.

PLoS ONE↗
USGS2010

Fish population dynamics in a seasonally varying wetland

Small fishes in seasonally flooded environments such as the Everglades are capable of spreading into newly flooded areas and building up substantial biomass. Passive drift cannot account for the rapidity of observed population expansions. To test the reaction-diffusion mechanism for spread of the fish, we estimated their diffusion coefficient and applied a reaction-diffusion model. This mechanism was also too weak to account for the spatial dynamics. Two other hypotheses were tested through modeling. The first--the 'refuge mechanism--hypothesizes that small remnant populations of small fishes survive the dry season in small permanent bodies of water (refugia), sites where the water level is otherwise below the surface. The second mechanism, which we call the 'dynamic ideal free distribution mechanism' is that consumption by the fish creates a prey density gradient and that fish taxis along this gradient can lead to rapid population expansion in space. We examined the two alternatives and concluded that although refugia may play an important role in recolonization by the fish population during reflooding, only the second, taxis in the direction of the flooding front, seems capable of matching empirical observations. This study has important implications for management of wetlands, as fish biomass is an essential support of higher trophic levels.

Florida↗
USGS2020

The influence of groundwater on the population size and total length of warmwater stream fishes

Groundwater influences stream environments in numerous ways including structuring biotic assemblages. However, associations between groundwater influence and warmwater fish assemblages are under-studied. We examined relationships between groundwater contribution, population size, and total length (TL) for 5 warmwater fishes at 32 stream reaches in the Ozark Highlands ecoregion. When we controlled for distance from an impoundment, population size and TL were significantly related to groundwater influence for all 5 species. Sunfishes were significantly less abundant in reaches with high levels of groundwater contribution (HGC reaches), whereas Ambloplites rupestris (Rock Bass) and Nocomis asper (Redspot Chub) TLs were significantly greater at HGC reaches. Reach-scale groundwater contribution explained nearly 4 times more unexplained variation among fish densities than did TL. Our study provides insight into the structuring role of groundwater on warmwater fish populations.

Missouri, Oklahoma↗
USGS2016

California State Waters Map Series — Offshore of Santa Cruz, California

Introduction In 2007, the California Ocean Protection Council initiated the California Seafloor Mapping Program (CSMP), designed to create a comprehensive seafloor map of high-resolution bathymetry, marine benthic habitats, and geology within the limit of California’s State Waters. The CSMP approach is to create highly detailed seafloor maps through collection, integration, interpretation, and visualization of swath sonar data, acoustic backscatter, seafloor video, seafloor photography, high-resolution seismic-reflection profiles, and bottom-sediment sampling data. The map products display seafloor morphology and character, identify potential marine benthic habitats, and illustrate both the surficial seafloor geology and shallow subsurface geology. The Offshore of Santa Cruz map area is located in central California, on the Pacific Coast about 98 km south of San Francisco. The city of Santa Cruz (population, about 63,000), the largest incorporated city in the map area and the county seat of Santa Cruz County, lies on uplifted marine terraces between the shoreline and the northwest-trending Santa Cruz Mountains, part of California’s Coast Ranges. All of California’s State Waters in the map area is part of the Monterey Bay National Marine Sanctuary. The map area is cut by an offshore section of the San Gregorio Fault Zone, and it lies about 20 kilometers southwest of the San Andreas Fault Zone. Regional folding and uplift along the coast has been attributed to a westward bend in the San Andreas Fault Zone and to right-lateral movement along the San Gregorio Fault Zone. Most of the coastal zone is characterized by low, rocky cliffs and sparse, small pocket beaches backed by low, terraced hills. Point Santa Cruz, which forms the north edge of Monterey Bay, provides protection for the beaches in the easternmost part of the map area by sheltering them from the predominantly northwesterly waves. The shelf in the map area is underlain by variable amounts (0 to 25 m) of upper Quaternary shelf, estuarine, and fluvial sediments deposited as sea level fluctuated in the late Pleistocene. The inner shelf is characterized by bedrock outcrops that have local thin sediment cover, the result of regional uplift, high wave energy, and limited sediment supply. The midshelf occupies part of an extensive, shore-parallel mud belt. The thickest sediment deposits, inferred to consist mainly of lowstand nearshore deposits, are found in the southeastern and northwestern parts of the map area. Coastal sediment transport in the map area is characterized by northwest-to-southeast littoral transport of sediment that is derived mainly from ephemeral streams in the Santa Cruz Mountains and also from local coastal-bluff erosion. During the last approximately 300 years, as much as 18 million cubic yards (14 million cubic meters) of sand-sized sediment has been eroded from the area between Año Nuevo Island and Point Año Nuevo and transported south; this mass of eroded sand is now enriching beaches in the map area. Sediment transport is within the Santa Cruz littoral cell, which terminates in the submarine Monterey Canyon. Benthic species observed in the Offshore of Santa Cruz map area are natives of the cold-temperate biogeographic zone that is called either the “Oregonian province” or the “northern California ecoregion.” This biogeographic province is maintained by the long-term stability of the southward-flowing California Current, the eastern limb of the North Pacific subtropical gyre that flows from southern British Columbia to Baja California. At its midpoint off central California, the California Current transports subarctic surface (0–500 m deep) waters southward, about 150 to 1,300 km from shore. Seasonal northwesterly winds that are, in part, responsible for the California Current, generate coastal upwelling. The south end of the Oregonian province is at Point Conception (about 300 km south of the map area), although its associated phylogeographic group of marine fauna may extend beyond to the area offshore of Los Angeles in southern California. The ocean off of central California has experienced a warming over the last 50 years that is driving an ecosystem shift away from the productive subarctic regime towards a depopulated subtropical environment. Biological productivity resulting from coastal upwelling supports populations of Sooty Shearwater, Western Gull, Common Murre, Cassin’s Auklet, and many other less populous bird species. In addition, an observable recovery of Humpback and Blue Whales has occurred in the area; both species are dependent on coastal upwelling to provide nutrients. The large extent of exposed inner shelf bedrock supports large forests of “bull kelp,” which is well adapted for high-wave-energy environments. The kelp beds are the northernmost known habitat for the population of southern sea otters. Common fish species found in the kelp beds and rocky reefs include lingcod and various species of rockfish and greenling.

California↗
USGS2025

Exploring the importance of metapopulation dynamics with population control strategies for invasive silver carp in the upper Mississippi River

Invasive bigheaded carps (Bighead Carp Hypophthalmichthys nobilis , Silver Carp Hypophthalmichthys molitrix , and their hybrids Hypophthalmichthys spp.) currently infest the Mississippi River Basin. Bigheaded carps can outcompete native species in invaded waters and can also transform the surrounding environment. Currently, resource managers seek to limit the population abundance of bigheaded carps and their range expansion into additional regions of the Upper Mississippi River (UMR) but lack a tool to evaluate different control strategies. Here, we present an application of a Silver Carp spatial population model in the UMR to fill this gap. We used the model to explore how simulated control strategies could affect Silver Carp metapopulation dynamics. More specifically, we assessed and compared the importance of movement deterrents, removal locations, and recruitment areas on Silver Carp population abundances across the UMR. Strategies that included a combination of removal efforts and deterrents resulted in the largest decreases in Silver Carp abundance in the upper pools of the UMR. Furthermore, scenarios that targeted source populations of Silver Carp rather than sink populations resulted in larger decreases in Silver Carp abundance at the invasion front. The effectiveness of these combined simulated strategies also depended on the location of Silver Carp recruitment. Our work suggests that an understanding of Silver Carp metapopulation dynamics may be important for control efforts and could help to inform the management of Silver Carp in the UMR.

Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Wisconsin↗
USGS2010

Status of the California condor (Gymnogyps californianus) and efforts to achieve its recovery

The California Condor ( Gymnogyps californianus ; hereafter "condor"; Fig. 1) has long been symbolic of avian conservation in the United States. Its large size, inquisitiveness, and association with remote places make it highly charismatic, and its decline to the brink of extinction aroused a continuing public interest in its plight. By 1982, only 22 individuals remained of this species whose range once encompassed much of North America. The last wild bird was trapped and brought into captivity in 1987, which rendered the species extinct in the wild (Snyder and Snyder 1989). In the 1980s, some questioned whether viable populations could ever again exist in the natural environment, and whether limited conservation funds should be expended on what they viewed as a hopeless cause (Pitelka 1981). Nevertheless, since that low point, a captive-breeding and release program has increased the total population by an order of magnitude, and condors fly free again in California, Arizona, Utah, and Baja California, Mexico (Fig. 2). At this writing (summer 2009), more than 350 condors exist, 180 of which are in the wild (J. Grantham pers. comm.). The free-living birds face severe challenges, however, and receive constant human assistance. The intensive management applied to the free-living populations, as well as the ongoing monitoring and captive-breeding programs, are tremendously expensive and become more so as the population grows. Thus, the program has reached a crossroads, caught between the financial and logistical pressures required to maintain an increasing number of condors in the wild and the environmental problems that preclude establishment of naturally sustainable, free-ranging populations.

The Auk↗
USGS2007

Can modeling improve estimation of desert tortoise population densities?

The federally listed desert tortoise (Gopherus agassizii) is currently monitored using distance sampling to estimate population densities. Distance sampling, as with many other techniques for estimating population density, assumes that it is possible to quantify the proportion of animals available to be counted in any census. Because desert tortoises spend much of their life in burrows, and the proportion of tortoises in burrows at any time can be extremely variable, this assumption is difficult to meet. This proportion of animals available to be counted is used as a correction factor (g0) in distance sampling and has been estimated from daily censuses of small populations of tortoises (6-12 individuals). These censuses are costly and produce imprecise estimates of g0 due to small sample sizes. We used data on tortoise activity from a large (N = 150) experimental population to model activity as a function of the biophysical attributes of the environment, but these models did not improve the precision of estimates from the focal populations. Thus, to evaluate how much of the variance in tortoise activity is apparently not predictable, we assessed whether activity on any particular day can predict activity on subsequent days with essentially identical environmental conditions. Tortoise activity was only weakly correlated on consecutive days, indicating that behavior was not repeatable or consistent among days with similar physical environments. ?? 2007 by the Ecological Society of America.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2015

Life history diversity of Snake River finespotted cutthroat trout: managing for persistence in a rapidly changing environment

Over the last century, native trout have experienced dramatic population declines, particularly in larger river systems where habitats associated with different spawning life history forms have been lost through habitat degradation and fragmentation. The resulting decrease in life history diversity has affected the capacity of populations to respond to environmental variability and disturbance. Unfortunately, because few large rivers are intact enough to permit full expression of life history diversity, it is unclear what patterns of diversity should be a conservation target. In this study, radiotelemetry was used to identify spawning and migration patterns of Snake River Finespotted Cutthroat Trout Oncorhynchus clarkii behnkei in the upper Snake River. Individuals were implanted with radio tags in October 2007 and 2008, and monitored through October 2009. Radio-tagged cutthroat trout in the upper Snake River exhibited variation in spawning habitat type and location, migration distance, spawn timing, postspawning behavior, and susceptibility to mortality sources. Between May and July, Cutthroat Trout spawned in runoff-dominated tributaries, groundwater-dominated spring creeks, and side channels of the Snake River. Individuals migrated up to 101 km from tagging locations in the upper Snake River to access spawning habitats, indicating that the upper Snake River provided seasonal habitat for spawners originating throughout the watershed. Postspawning behavior also varied; by August each year, 28% of spring-creek spawners remained in their spawning location, compared with 0% of side-channel spawners and 7% of tributary spawners. These spawning and migration patterns reflect the connectivity, habitat diversity, and dynamic template of the Snake River. Ultimately, promoting life history diversity through restoration of complex habitats may provide the most opportunities for cutthroat trout persistence in an environment likely to experience increased variability from climate change and disturbance from invasive species.

Wyoming↗
USGS1994

Cytonuclear genetics of experimental fish hybrid zones inside Biosphere 2

Two species of mosquitofish (family Poeciliidae ) known to hybridize in nature were introduced into freshwater habitats inside Biosphere 2, and their population genetics were monitored after 2 years. Within four to six generations, nuclear and cytoplasmic markers characteristic of Gambusia holbrooki had risen greatly in frequency, although some Gambusia affinis alleles and haplotypes were retained primarily in recombinant genotypes, indicative of introgressive hybridization. The temporal cytonuclear dynamics proved similar to population genetic changes observed in replicated experimental hybrid populations outside of Biosphere 2, thus indicating strong directional selection favoring G. holbrooki genotypes across the range of environments monitored. When interpreted in the context of species-specific population demographies observed previously, results suggest that the extremely rapid evolution in these zones of secondary contact is attributable primarily to species differences in life-history traits.

PNAS↗
USGS2006

Polar Bear Population Status in the Southern Beaufort Sea

Polar bears depend entirely on sea ice for survival. In recent years, a warming climate has caused major changes in the Arctic sea ice environment, leading to concerns regarding the status of polar bear populations. Here we present findings from long-term studies of polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea (SBS) region of the U.S. and Canada, which are relevant to these concerns. We applied open population capture-recapture models to data collected from 2001 to 2006, and estimated there were 1,526 (95% CI = 1,211; 1,841) polar bears in the SBS region in 2006. The number of polar bears in this region was previously estimated to be approximately 1,800. Because precision of earlier estimates was low, our current estimate of population size and the earlier ones cannot be statistically differentiated. For the 2001-06 period, the best fitting capture-recapture model provided estimates of total apparent survival of 0.43 for cubs of the year (COYs), and 0.92 for all polar bears older than COYs. Because the survival rates for older polar bears included multiple sex and age strata, they could not be compared to previous estimates. Survival rates for COYs, however, were significantly lower than estimates derived in earlier studies (P = 0.03). The lower survival of COYs was corroborated by a comparison of the number of COYs per adult female for periods before (1967-89) and after (1990-2006) the winter of 1989-90, when warming temperatures and altered atmospheric circulation caused an abrupt change in sea ice conditions in the Arctic basin. In the latter period, there were significantly more COYs per adult female in the spring (P = 0.02), and significantly fewer COYs per adult female in the autumn (P < 0.001). Apparently, cub production was higher in the latter period, but fewer cubs survived beyond the first 6 months of life. Parallel with declining survival, skull measurements suggested that COYs captured from 1990 to 2006 were smaller than those captured before 1990. Similarly, both skull measurements and body weights suggested that adult males captured from 1990 to 2006 were smaller than those captured before 1990. The smaller stature of males was especially notable because it corresponded with a higher mean age of adult males. Male polar bears continue to grow into their teens, and if adequately nourished, the older males captured in the latter period should have been larger than those captured earlier. In western Hudson Bay, Canada, a significant decline in population size was preceded by observed declines in cub survival and physical stature. The evidence of declining recruitment and body size reported here, therefore, suggests vigilance regarding the future of polar bears in the SBS region.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2004

Burrowing mayflies as indicators of ecosystem health: Status of populations in two western Lake Superior embayments

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and Environment Canada are supporting the development of indicators of ecosystem health that can be used to report on progress in restoring and maintaining the Great Lakes ecosystem, as called for in the Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement between the United States and Canada. One indicator under development for Great Lakes mesotrophic environments is based on burrowing mayflies ( Hexagenia : Ephemeroptera: Ephemeridae). In this paper, we report the results of a benthic survey in spring 2002 to determine the status of nymphal populations of Hexagenia in two western Lake Superior embayments, the St. Louis River estuary, an area with significant water-use impairments, and Chequamegon Bay, an area with no known water-use impairments. Ponar grab samples collected throughout these embayments showed nymphs were generally abundant in finely particulate, cohesive substrate (clay or mixtures of clay and sand) in both embayments. However, in the St. Louis River estuary nymphs were absent in those preferred substrates at 11 stations in the eastern portion of St. Louis Bay and the adjoining northwestern portion of the Duluth-Superior Harbor, where the sediments were variously contaminated with visible amounts of taconite pellets, paint chips, oil, or combusted coal waste (clinkers). Our results suggest that human activities have rendered those portions of the St. Louis River estuary unsuitable for habitation by Hexagenia nymphs and we recommend that trend monitoring of the nymphal population there be conducted to permit reporting on progress in restoring and maintaining the health and integrity of this Great Lakes ecosystem embayment, consistent with the intent of the Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement.

Minnesota, Wisconsin↗