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USGS2013

Inferential consequences of modeling rather than measuring snow accumulation in studies of animal ecology

Abstract. It is increasingly common for studies of animal ecology to use model-based predictions of environmental variables as explanatory or predictor variables, even though model prediction uncertainty is typically unknown. To demonstrate the potential for misleading inferences when model predictions with error are used in place of direct measurements, we compared snow water equivalent (SWE) and snow depth as predicted by the Snow Data Assimilation System (SNODAS) to field measurements of SWE and snow depth. We examined locations on elk (Cervus canadensis) winter ranges in western Wyoming, because modeled data such as SNODAS output are often used for inferences on elk ecology. Overall, SNODAS predictions tended to overestimate field measurements, prediction uncertainty was high, and the difference between SNODAS predictions and field measurements was greater in snow shadows for both snow variables compared to non-snow shadow areas. We used a simple simulation of snow effects on the probability of an elk being killed by a predator to show that, if SNODAS prediction uncertainty was ignored, we might have mistakenly concluded that SWE was not an important factor in where elk were killed in predatory attacks during the winter. In this simulation, we were interested in the effects of snow at finer scales (<1 km 2 ) than the resolution of SNODAS. If bias were to decrease when SNODAS predictions are averaged over coarser scales, SNODAS would be applicable to population-level ecology studies. In our study, however, averaging predictions over moderate to broad spatial scales (9–2200 km 2 ) did not reduce the differences between SNODAS predictions and field measurements. This study highlights the need to carefully evaluate two issues when using model output as an explanatory variable in subsequent analysis: (1) the model’s resolution relative to the scale of the ecological question of interest and (2) the implications of prediction uncertainty on inferences when using model predictions as explanatory or predictor variables.

Wyoming↗

USGS2005

Nutritional condition of elk in rocky mountain national park

We tested the hypothesis that elk in Rocky Mountain National Park (RMNP) were at ecological carrying capacity by determining herd-specific levels of nutritional condition and fecundity. Ingesta-free body fat levels in adult cows that were lactating were 10.6% (s = 1.7; range = 6.2-15.4) and 7.7% (s = 0.5; range = 5.9-10.1) in November 2001 for the Horseshoe and Moraine Park herds, respectively. Cows that were not lactating were able to accrue significantly more body fat: 14.0% (s = 1.1; range = 7.7-19.3) and 11.5% (s = 0.8; range = 8.6-15.1) for the Horseshoe and Moraine Park herds, respectively. Cow elk lost most of their body fat over winter (April 2002 levels were 3.9% [s = 0.4] and 2.9% [s = 0.4] for the Horseshoe and Moraine Park herds, respectively). Nutritional condition indicated that both Horseshoe Park and Moraine Park elk were well below condition levels elk can achieve on very good-excellent nutrition (i.e., >15% body fat; Cook et al. 2004) and were comparable to other free-ranging elk populations. However, condition levels were higher than those expected at a "food-limited" carrying capacity, and a proportion of elk in each herd were able to achieve condition levels indicative of very good-excellent nutrition. Elk in RMNP are likely regulated and/or limited by a complex combination of density-independent (including significant heterogeneity in forage conditions across RMNP's landscape) and density-dependent processes, as condition levels contradict a simple density-dependent model of a population at ecological carrying capacity.

Western North American Naturalist↗

USGS2023

Species and physiographic factors drive Indian cucumber root and Canada mayflower plant chemistry: Implications for white-tailed deer forage quality

Nutrition is fundamental to white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ) management given its relationship to habitat carrying capacity and population productivity. Ecological Sites (ESs) are a United States federal landscape management unit of specific land potential due to unique soils, topography, climate, parent material, and perhaps deer forage nutritional value. We present results of a study that extends the use of ESs to inform white-tailed deer management by evaluating indicator plant chemistry in two spring forb species, Indian cucumber root ( Medeola virginiana) and Canada mayflower ( Maianthemum canadense ), across the northcentral Appalachians. We sampled spring forbs and underlying soils across two ESs: Dry, upland, oak–maple–hemlock hardwood forest (OMH) and Deep soil, high slope, northern hardwood forests (NHF). Plant elemental content, soil pH, and site aspect, slope and elevation were measured. Our results show that forb chemistry differs between species and within a species geographically. Indian cucumber root, as compared to Canada mayflower, has significantly higher Mg, Na, Cu, Fe, and Zn, and lower Mn. Canada mayflower in the NHF ES, versus OMH ES, was found to have significantly higher K, Mn, and B. Indian cucumber root in the NHF ES, versus the OMH ES, was found to have significantly higher Mg, Al, Fe, and Ca:P ratio but lower K. Linear discriminant analysis shows that plant tissue Mn was the best discriminator between species, and between ESs, Canada mayflower plant tissue Mn and Indian cucumber plant tissue P, K, Ca, Mg and Mn were best discriminators. Given that nutrition determines habitat carrying capacity, differences in forage nutrition between ESs may have different potentials to support deer. Forage nutrition is an important aspect of deer habitat conditions and carrying capacity, thus ESs are likely to support deer populations with different growth potential, which means that even if the same plant species occur in different ESs their nutritional value to deer may differ.

Journal of Environmental Management↗

USGS2019

Comparing clustered sampling designs for spatially explicit estimation of population density

Spatially explicit capture–recapture methods do not assume that animals have equal access to sampling devices (e.g., detectors), which allows for gaps in the sampling extent and nonuniform (e.g., clustered) sampling designs. However, the performance (i.e., relative root mean squared error [RRMSE], confidence interval coverage, relative bias and relative standard error) of clustered detector arrays has not been thoroughly evaluated. I used simulations to evaluate the performance of various detector and cluster spacings, cluster configurations (i.e., number of detectors arranged in a square grid), sampling extents and number of sampling occasions for estimating population density, the relationship between detection rate and distance to a detector from the animal's center of activity ( σ ) and base detection rates, using American black bears ( Ursus americanus ) as a case study. My simulations indicated that a wide range of detector configurations can provide reliable estimates if spacing between detectors in clusters is ≥1 σ and ≤3 σ . A number of cluster configurations and occasion lengths produced estimates that were unbiased, resulted in good spatial coverage, and were relatively precise. Moreover, increasing the duration of sampling, establishing large study areas, increasing detection rates and spacing clusters so that cross‐cluster sampling of individuals can occur could help ameliorate deficiencies in the detector layout. These results have application for a wide array of species and sampling methods (e.g., DNA sampling, camera trapping, mark‐resight and search‐encounter) and suggest that clustered sampling can significantly reduce the effort necessary to provide reliable estimates of population density across large spatial extents that previously would have been infeasible with nonclustered sampling designs.

Population Ecology↗

USGS2019

Assessing lek attendance of male greater sage‐grouse using fine‐resolution GPS data: Implications for population monitoring of lek mating grouse

Counts of males displaying on breeding grounds are the primary management tool used to assess population trends in lekking grouse species. Despite the importance of male lek attendance (i.e., proportion of males on leks available for detection) influencing lek counts, patterns of within season and between season variability in attendance rates are not well understood. We used high‐frequency global positioning system (GPS) telemetry data from male greater sage‐grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus; n = 67) over five lekking seasons (2013–2017) at eight study sites in Nevada to estimate lek attendance rates. Specifically, we recorded daily locations of sage‐grouse in relation to mapped lek boundaries and used generalized additive models to assess temporal variation in attendance rates by age class (subadult vs. adult). Average timing of peak attendance occurred on 16 April but varied from March 16, 2014 to April 21 , 2016. Overall, adult males attended leks at higher rates (0.683 at peak) and earlier in the season (19 March) than subadults (0.421 at peak on April 19). Peak attendance probability was positively related to cumulative winter precipitation. Daily probabilities of lek switching differed between adults (0.019 at peak on March 3) and subadults (0.046 at peak on March 22), and lek switching was negatively related to distance to nearest lek. Our results indicate variable patterns in lek attendance through time, and that lek switching may occur at higher rates than previously thought. We demonstrate the use of generalizable daily attendance curves to date‐correct lek counts and derive estimates of male abundance, although such an approach will likely require the incorporation of information on age structure to produce robust results that are useful for population monitoring.

Nevada↗

USGS2019

Variation of annual apparent survival and detection rates with age, year, and individual identity in male Weddell seals (Leptonychotes weddellii) from long-term mark-recapture data

Exploring age- and sex-specific survival rates provides insight regarding population behavior and life-history trait evolution, but many population studies exclude males. Accordingly, our understanding of how age-specific patterns of survival, including actuarial senescence, compare between the sexes remains inadequate. Using 35 years of mark-recapture data for 7,516 male Weddell seals (Leptonychotes weddellii) born in Erebus Bay, Antarctica, we estimated age- specific annual survival rates using a hierarchical model for mark-recapture data in a Bayesian framework. Our male survival estimates were moderate for pups and yearlings, highest for 2- year-olds, and gradually declined with age thereafter such that the oldest animals observed had the lowest rates of any age. Reports of senescence in other wildlife populations of species with similar longevity occurred at older ages than those presented here. When compared to recently published estimates for reproductive Weddell seal females, we found that peak survival rates were similar (males: 0.94, 95% CI = 0.92-0.96; females: 0.92, 95% CI = 0.93-0.95), but rates declined more rapidly in males. Costs of reproduction for males seem to exceed costs incurred by females, but age-specific reproductive data for males are necessary to fully evaluate survival- reproduction tradeoffs in males. Similar studies on a broad range of species are needed to contextualize these results for a better understanding of the variation in senescence patterns between the sexes of the same species, but our study adds information for a marine mammal species to a research topic dominated by avian and ungulate species.

Population Ecology↗

USGS2020

Trends in cheetah Acinonyx jubatus density in north-central Namibia

Assessing trends in abundance and density of species of conservation concern is vital to inform conservation and management strategies. The remaining population of the cheetah ( Acinonyx jubatus ) largely exists outside of protected areas, where they are often in conflict with humans. Despite this, the population status and dynamics of cheetah outside of protected areas have received relatively limited attention across its range. We analyzed remote camera trapping data of nine surveys conducted from 2005 to 2014 in the Waterberg Conservancy, north-central Namibia, which included detections of 74 individuals (52 adult males, 7 adult females and 15 dependents). Using spatial capture–recapture methods, we assessed annual and seasonal trends in cheetah density. We found evidence of a stable trend in cheetah density over the study period, with an average density of 1.94/100 km 2 (95% confidence interval 1.33–2.84). This apparent stability of cheetah density is likely the result of stable and abundant prey availability, a high tolerance to carnivores by farmers and low turnover rates in home range tenure. This study highlights the importance of promoting long-term surveys that capture a broad range of environmental variation that may influence species density and the importance of nonprotected areas for cheetah conservation.

Population Ecology↗

USGS2021

Species-specific demographic and behavioral responses to food availability during migratory stopover

Understanding the effects of migratory stopover site conditions on both demographic rates and migratory behaviors is critical for interpreting changes in passage population sizes at stopover sites and predicting responses to future changes and conservation actions. We used a Bayesian formulation of the open robust design model to analyze mark-resight observations of three migratory shorebird species using Delaware Bay, USA during spring stopover from 2005 to 2018. We tested for an effect of stopover food availability and weather conditions on survival probability and the probability of returning to this site in the next year and found species differences in these relationships. After years with greater food availability, red knot Calidris canutus rufa had higher survival probability but ruddy turnstone Arenaria interpres were more likely to return to the site. Estimates of within-year probabilities of arrival and persistence at the stopover site showed relatively consistent migration schedules for ruddy turnstone, but more interannual variation for red knot and sanderling Calidris alba . Shorebird use of this site typically peaked during May 26–28, but the estimated proportion of the population present during this period varied dramatically among years for red knot (range: 0.07–0.59) but less so for ruddy turnstone and sanderling. This demonstrates that both the proportion of the flyway population using this stopover site and the proportion present during a given sampling period vary among years, and both should be considered in analyzing and interpreting monitoring data. Stopover conditions can influence both migratory behavior and demographics, underscoring the importance of flyway-wide monitoring.

Delaware, New Jersey↗

USGS2023

Addressing a potential weakness in indices of predation, herbivory, and parasitism

Quantification of predation, herbivory, and parasitism is critical to understanding the dynamics and trophic interactions of populations in an ecosystem. Such quantification can be challenging if the availability or consumption of the taxa are difficult to assess. Sometimes the consumption of a single prey, forage, or host is used as an overall index of the predation, herbivory, or parasitism for a population of interest. Occasionally, human-manipulated baits are used to derive similar indices. However, all such indices are susceptible to influence by variation in the abundance of the preferred taxon relative to other taxa as the result of preference switching. In this article, I describe a test for preference switching (and an adjustment, if detected) that does not require availability and consumption of the prey (forage, or host) to be measured on the same scale. The ability to detect and adjust for preference switching in such situations may advance the understanding of biological preference in taxa not previously studied in this respect.

Population Ecology↗

USGS2026

Demographic responses to experimental manipulation of an enclosed population of invasive brown treesnakes (Boiga irregularis)

Understanding how invasive species populations respond to perturbations can give insight into effective management. However, opportunities to test theoretical population responses are rare, as experimental perturbations often run counter to management goals (e.g., suppression). On the island of Guam, a 5-ha outdoor enclosure (with no immigration or emigration) constructed in 2003 serves as a unique population-scale study area for invasive brown treesnakes ( Boiga irregularis ). Capture-mark-recapture studies (CMR) and several experiments have taken place since 2004. Here, we analyze a subset of the CMR data collected between 2008 and 2012, a time period encompassing two experimental perturbations: (1) supplemental feeding to determine if the population is food limited and (2) targeted removal of adult and large-subadult cohorts to quantify the timing and magnitude of the population's demographic response to a simulated control effort. We used the CMR data to fit a Pradel model in a Bayesian framework to compare the population growth rate, survival probability, and recruitment rate prior to, during, and post perturbations. We found that increasing food resources increased population growth and recruitment rates, but that survival remained relatively constant. The removal perturbation resulted in a decrease in population growth rate and survival immediately after the removal, but population growth rate and recruitment began increasing 1 year after the removal perturbation. Our results suggest that brown treesnakes in the enclosed population are prey limited, likely constraining population growth, and that the suppression of population growth after removal of adults and large sub-adults is short-lived (i.e., less than a year).

Guam↗

USGS2016

Biomarkers reveal sea turtles remained in oiled areas following the Deepwater Horizon oil spill

Assessments of large-scale disasters, such as the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, are problematic because while measurements of post-disturbance conditions are common, measurements of pre-disturbance baselines are only rarely available. Without adequate observations of pre-disaster organismal and environmental conditions, it is impossible to assess the impact of such catastrophes on animal populations and ecological communities. Here, we use long-term biological tissue records to provide pre-disaster data for a vulnerable marine organism. Keratin samples from the carapace of loggerhead sea turtles record the foraging history for up to 18 years, allowing us to evaluate the effect of the oil spill on sea turtle foraging patterns. Samples were collected from 76 satellite-tracked adult loggerheads in 2011 and 2012, approximately one to two years after the spill. Of the 10 individuals that foraged in areas exposed to surface oil, none demonstrated significant changes in foraging patterns post spill. The observed long-term fidelity to foraging sites indicates that loggerheads in the northern Gulf of Mexico likely remained in established foraging sites, regardless of the introduction of oil and chemical dispersants. More research is needed to address potential long-term health consequences to turtles in this region. Mobile marine organisms present challenges for researchers to monitor effects of environmental disasters, both spatially and temporally. We demonstrate that biological tissues can reveal long-term histories of animal behavior and provide critical pre-disaster baselines following an anthropogenic disturbance or natural disaster.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2017

Spatially explicit dynamic N-mixture models

Knowledge of demographic parameters such as survival, reproduction, emigration, and immigration is essential to understand metapopulation dynamics. Traditionally the estimation of these demographic parameters requires intensive data from marked animals. The development of dynamic N-mixture models makes it possible to estimate demographic parameters from count data of unmarked animals, but the original dynamic N-mixture model does not distinguish emigration and immigration from survival and reproduction, limiting its ability to explain important metapopulation processes such as movement among local populations. In this study we developed a spatially explicit dynamic N-mixture model that estimates survival, reproduction, emigration, local population size, and detection probability from count data under the assumption that movement only occurs among adjacent habitat patches. Simulation studies showed that the inference of our model depends on detection probability, local population size, and the implementation of robust sampling design. Our model provides reliable estimates of survival, reproduction, and emigration when detection probability is high, regardless of local population size or the type of sampling design. When detection probability is low, however, our model only provides reliable estimates of survival, reproduction, and emigration when local population size is moderate to high and robust sampling design is used. A sensitivity analysis showed that our model is robust against the violation of the assumption that movement only occurs among adjacent habitat patches, suggesting wide applications of this model. Our model can be used to improve our understanding of metapopulation dynamics based on count data that are relatively easy to collect in many systems.

Population Ecology↗

USGS2012

Using variance components to estimate power in a hierarchically nested sampling design improving monitoring of larval Devils Hole pupfish

We used variance components to assess allocation of sampling effort in a hierarchically nested sampling design for ongoing monitoring of early life history stages of the federally endangered Devils Hole pupfish (DHP) (Cyprinodon diabolis). Sampling design for larval DHP included surveys (5 days each spring 2007–2009), events, and plots. Each survey was comprised of three counting events, where DHP larvae on nine plots were counted plot by plot. Statistical analysis of larval abundance included three components: (1) evaluation of power from various sample size combinations, (2) comparison of power in fixed and random plot designs, and (3) assessment of yearly differences in the power of the survey. Results indicated that increasing the sample size at the lowest level of sampling represented the most realistic option to increase the survey's power, fixed plot designs had greater power than random plot designs, and the power of the larval survey varied by year. This study provides an example of how monitoring efforts may benefit from coupling variance components estimation with power analysis to assess sampling design.

California↗

USGS2021

Evidence for continental-scale dispersal of antimicrobial resistant bacteria by landfill-foraging gulls

Anthropogenic inputs into the environment may serve as sources of antimicrobial resistant bacteria and alter the ecology and population dynamics of synanthropic wild animals by providing supplemental forage. In this study, we used a combination of phenotypic and genomic approaches to characterize antimicrobial resistant indicator bacteria, animal telemetry to describe host movement patterns, and a novel modeling approach to combine information from these diverse data streams to investigate the acquisition and long-distance dispersal of antimicrobial resistant bacteria by landfill-foraging gulls. Our results provide evidence that gulls acquire antimicrobial resistant bacteria from anthropogenic sources, which they may subsequently disperse across and between continents via migratory movements. Furthermore, we introduce a flexible modeling framework to estimate the relative dispersal risk of antimicrobial resistant bacteria in western North America and adjacent areas within East Asia, which may be adapted to provide information on the risk of dissemination of other organisms and pathogens maintained by wildlife through space and time.

Article↗

USGS2004

Assessment of current and proposed nature reserves of Mexico based on their capacity to protect geophysical features and biodiversity

Mexico currently has 144 nature reserves covering approximately 9.1% of its land area. These reserves were established for a variety of reasons - often unrelated to the protection of biodiversity. In 2000 in response to a growing concern about the lack of organized conservation reserve planning to protect the important threatened biological and physical features of Mexico, the Mexican Commission for Knowledge and Use of Biodiversity (CONABIO) proposed the establishment of 151 new reserves for Mexico covering 51,429,500 ha. We compiled a GIS analysis using digital thematic maps of physical and biological features to examine how the existing and proposed reserves serve to protect the biodiversity and physical features of the country. Using a conservation target of placing a minimum of 12% of the land area of each important biophysical feature in nature reserves, we found that the 144 existing nature reserves covering 18 million ha (9% of the country) only meet that target for elevation ranges >3000 m and areas with poor soils. These mountainous areas represent less than 1% of the country. The gaps in the existing nature reserves network occur mainly at lower and intermediate elevations (<3000 m) areas with xeric, tropical, and temperate ecosystems, and high productivity soils. The areas proposed by CONABIO increase the proportion of protected lands in the country to over 27% and most of the conservation targets for geophysical features, and land cover, categories are met. Whether this area would be sufficient to maintain viable populations and ecological integrity of species and ecosystems is unknown. Even with the new reserves, low elevation coastal lands would be below the conservation target in the nature reserves. To include a representative sample of these lands would be difficult as these are the same areas where the majority of people live. ?? 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Biological Conservation↗

USGS2020

After-hatch and hatch year Buff-breasted Sandpipers (Calidris subruficollis) can be sexed accurately using morphometric measures

Determining the sex of birds quickly in the field can help in studies of behavior and distribution, and when selecting particular sexes for deploying tracking devices or collecting samples. However, discerning males from females is difficult in species that are plumage monomorphic and have overlapping sexual-size dimorphism, as in Buff-breasted Sandpipers Calidris subruficollis . We developed three discriminant functions to sex Buff-breasted Sandpipers based on measurements of live birds captured in Brazil whose sex was confirmed with molecular techniques. We validated these discriminant functions using morphometric measures from other independent samples of known-sex live birds from wintering (Brazil), migration (Texas), and breeding (Alaska) sites. Discriminant functions derived from birds captured in Brazil accurately sexed ≥88% of the validation sample from Brazil, Texas, and Alaska. Errors in classification occurred among males on the wintering (0–5%) and breeding (8–12%) grounds, and females during migration (0–11%). Discriminant functions worked well because of the substantial sexual size dimorphism present in the species, with male traits being in general 5.2–10.4% larger than female traits. The size of morphological traits did not vary by age (after controlling for sex) for birds sampled on the wintering grounds and during migration. Our results indicate that discriminant functions can be used to sex after-hatch year (AHY) Buff-breasted Sandpipers throughout their range, and for hatch year (HY) birds during their first southbound migration and winter. Being able to accurately sex both AHY and HY birds using only morphological measurements will improve studies of the ecology and population structure of this species and enhance the application of conservation measures.

Wader Study↗

USGS2013

Land subsidence and relative sea-level rise in the southern Chesapeake Bay region

The southern Chesapeake Bay region is experiencing land subsidence and rising water levels due to global sea-level rise; land subsidence and rising water levels combine to cause relative sea-level rise. Land subsidence has been observed since the 1940s in the southern Chesapeake Bay region at rates of 1.1 to 4.8 millimeters per year (mm/yr), and subsidence continues today. This land subsidence helps explain why the region has the highest rates of sea-level rise on the Atlantic Coast of the United States. Data indicate that land subsidence has been responsible for more than half the relative sea-level rise measured in the region. Land subsidence increases the risk of flooding in low-lying areas, which in turn has important economic, environmental, and human health consequences for the heavily populated and ecologically important southern Chesapeake Bay region. The aquifer system in the region has been compacted by extensive groundwater pumping in the region at rates of 1.5- to 3.7-mm/yr; this compaction accounts for more than half of observed land subsidence in the region. Glacial isostatic adjustment, or the flexing of the Earth’s crust in response to glacier formation and melting, also likely contributes to land subsidence in the region.

Virginia↗

USGS2026

A Lake Charr pangenome reveals highly conserved Ohnologs as drivers of phenotypic diversity

Whole-genome duplication (WGD) is hypothesized to spur evolutionary diversification by producing genome-wide duplicate gene sets (Ohnologs) that are initially functionally redundant but can diverge markedly as the effects of relaxed selection accumulate over time. However, the underlying mechanisms remain unclear, in part because genomic studies often reconstruct Ohnolog evolution over millions of years, during which subsequent mutations can obscure deep-time signals. Investigating the relationship between Ohnolog evolution and diversification on a contemporary timescale offers clearer insights. We explore this relationship in Lake Charr ( Salvelinus namaycush ), where ∼10% of genes are retained highly conserved polyploid duplicates following the Salmonid-Specific Fourth Round WGD. Using 31 chromosome-level assemblies of Lake Charr from morphologically and ecologically diverse populations, joined into a pangenome graph, we characterized 189,555 structural variants (SVs) that were significantly less likely to affect genes retained as sequence-conserved Ohnolog pairs, nuancing the hypothesis that gene redundancy, relaxed selection, and functional diversification are intertwined. However, we found that SVs affecting such conserved Ohnologs may be potent drivers of adaptive evolution. Notably, we identified a putative 938-Kb interchromosomal translocation containing 25 genes with highly conserved Ohnologs in a paralogous (but untranslocated) genomic block. This putative translocation appears to have facilitated Ohnolog divergence in ankrd11 and hp , genes putatively linked to craniofacial and lipid metabolic diversity in sympatric Lake Superior morphs. This research reveals that conserved Ohnologs previously presumed to be redundant remain a reservoir for adaptive change.

BioRxiv↗