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USGS2022

The tundra phenology database: More than two decades of tundra phenology responses to climate change

Observations of changes in phenology have provided some of the strongest signals of the effects of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems. The International Tundra Experiment (ITEX), initiated in the early 1990s, established a common protocol to measure plant phenology in tundra study areas across the globe. Today, this valuable collection of phenology measurements depicts the responses of plants at the colder extremes of our planet to experimental and ambient changes in temperature over the past decades. The database contains 150 434 phenology observations of 278 plant species taken at 28 study areas for periods of 1–26 years. Here we describe the full data set to increase the visibility and use of these data in global analyses and to invite phenology data contributions from underrepresented tundra locations. Portions of this tundra phenology database have been used in three recent syntheses, some data sets are expanded, others are from entirely new study areas, and the entirety of these data are now available at the Polar Data Catalogue ( https://doi.org/10.21963/13215 ).

Arctic Science↗

USGS2010

The potential influence of changing climate on the persistence of salmonids of the inland west

The Earth's climate warmed steadily during the 20th century, and mean annual air temperatures are estimated to have increased by 0.6°C (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007). Although many cycles of warming and cooling have occurred in the past, the most recent warming period is unique in its rate and magnitude of change (Siegenthaler and others, 2005) and in its association with anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change , 2007). The climate in the western United States warmed in concert with the global trend but at an accelerated rate (+0.8°C during the 20th century; Saunders and others, 2008). The region could also prove especially sensitive to future changes because the relatively small human population is growing rapidly, as are demands on limited water supplies. Regional hydrological patterns are dominated by seasonal snow accumulation at upper elevations. Most of the region is relatively dry, and both terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems are strongly constrained b y water availability (Barnett and others, 2008; Brown and others, 2008). Stream environments are dynamic and climatically extreme, and salmonid fishes are the dominant elements of the native biodiversity (McPhail and Lindsey, 1986; Waples and others, 2008). Salmonids have broad economic and ecologic importance, but a century of intensive water resource development, nonnative fish stocking, and land use has significantly reduced many populations and several taxa are now protected under the Endangered Species Act (Thurow and others, 1997; Trotter, 2008). Because salmonids require relatively pristine, cold water environments and are often isolated in headwater habitats, members of this group may be especially vulnerable to the effects of a warming climate (Keleher and Rahel, 1996; Rieman and others, 2007; Williams and others, 2009). Warming during the 20th century drove a series of environmental trends that have profound implications for many aspects of salmonid habitat, including disturbance regimes such as wildfire, and unfavorable changes to thermal and hydrologic properties of aquatic systems. Warmer air temperatures have been associated with decreased winter snow accumulations, have accelerated snowmelt, and have advanced the timing of peak runoff by several days to weeks across most of western North America (Stewart and others, 2005; Barnett and others, 2008). Less snow and earlier runoff decrease aquifer recharge, make less water available for groundwater inputs to streams, and are contributing to widespread decreases in summer low flows (Stewart and others, 2005; Rood and others, 2008; Luce and Holden 2009). Interannual variability in stream flow is increasing, as is the persistence of multi-year extreme conditions (McCabe and others, 2004; Pagano and Garen 2005). In many areas of western North America, flood risks have increased in association with warmer temperatures during the 20th century (Hamlet and Lettenmaier, 2005). Streams where midwinter temperatures are near freezing have proven especially sensitive to increased flooding because of associated transitional hydrological patterns (mixtures of rainfall and snowmelt) and propensity for occasional rain-on-snow events to rapidly melt winter snowpack and generate large floods (Hamlet and Lettenmaier, 2005). Stream temperatures in many areas are increasing (Peterson and Kitchell, 2001; Morrison and others, 2002; Bartholow, 2005; Kaushal and others, 2010), due to both air temperature increases and reduced summer flows that make streams more sensitive to warmer air temperatures (Isaak and others, 2010). In recent decades, wildfires have become more common across much of the western United States during periods of more frequent droughts (Westerling and others, 2006; Hoerling and Eischeid, 2007), and local stream temperature can increase in postfire environments (Gresswell, 1999; Dunham and others, 2007). Fire-related temperature increase within streams is commonly a transient phenomenon, lasting only until riparian vegetation has recovered (Gresswell, 1999); however, ongoing climate change could preclude recovery to higher stature, prefire vegetation types in some areas (McKenzie and others, 2004; van Mantgem and Stephenson, 2007), resulting in a loss of critical riparian shading. Additionally, when wildfires occur in steep mountain topographies, the vegetation that stabilize s soils on hillslopes is often killed and landslides become more prevalent (Gresswell, 1999). Landslides int o stream channels form debris flows composed of sediment slurries and dead trees that can scour channels to bedrock and further exacerbate stream heating, delay recovery of riparian areas, or extirpate fish populations (Gresswell, 1999; May and Gresswell, 2003; Dunham and others, 2007). Changes in stream environments will shift habitat distributions, sometimes unpredictably, in both time and space for many salmonid fishes. Water temperature fundamentally influences aquatic ecosystem health because distribution, reproduction, fitness, and survival of ectothermic organisms are inextricably linked to the thermal regime of the environment. Historically, research has focused on defining lethal thermal limits of salmonids (Eaton and others, 1995; Selong and others, 2001; Todd and others, 2008); however, water temperature is known to be important in biological processes at a variety of spatial scales and levels of biological organization (Rahel and Olden, 2008; McCullough and others, 2009). For instance, trout are affected directly by water temperature through feeding, metabolism, and growth rates, and indirectly by factors such as prey availability and species interactions (Wehrly and others, 2007; Rahel and Olden, 2008). Where cold water temperatures currently limit habitat suitability and distributions of some species (for example, at the highest and most northerly distributional extents; Nakano and others, 1996; Coleman and Fausch, 2007), a warming climate may gradually increase the quality and extent of suitable habitat. Over time, previously constrained populations are expected to expand into these new habitats and increase in number. Some evidence suggests this may already be happening in Alaska, where streams in recently deglaciated areas are being colonized by emigrants from nearby salmon and char populations (Milner and others, 2000). Unfortunately, many of the sensitive salmonid species that are often the focus of western managers are unlikely to benefit from future water temperature increases. Warmer stream temperatures will facilitate invasion by nonnative species that are broadly established in downstream areas into upstream areas where they will compete with native species (Rieman and others, 2006; Rahel and Olden, 2008; Fausch and others, 2009). In other cases, warmer stream temperatures will render thermally suitable habitats unsuitable in downstream areas and effect net losses of habitat because upstream distributions are often constrained by streams that are too small or steep (Hari and others, 2006; Isaak and others, 2010). Both scenarios are realistic for fish species like bull trout ( Salvelinus confluentus ) (Rieman and others, 2006; Rieman and others, 2007), the various subspecies of cutthroat trout ( Oncorhynchus clarkii ) (Williams and others, 2009), Gila trout ( Oncorhynchus gilae gilae ) (Kennedy and others, 2008), and Apache trout ( Oncorhynchus gilae apache ) (Rinne and Minckley, 1985; Carmichael and others, 1993). As native species are increasingly confined to smaller and more isolated habitats by a gradually warming climate, the effects of wildfires (whether related to lethal changes in water quality during a fire, channel debris flows, or chronic postfire warming ) could have greater proportional effects on remaining habitats (for example, Brown and others, 2001; Rieman and others, 2007). If these changes were accompanied by additional hydrologic alterations associated with changes to the magnitude, frequency, duration, timing, and rate of change of discharge patterns (Jager and others, 1999; Henderson and others, 2000), populations may begin to lose some of their historic resilience and become ever more susceptible to local extirpations. As dramatic and extensive as climatic and environmental trends are for salmonid habitats, global climate models (GCMs) project that many of these trends will continue and even accelerate until at least the middle of the 21st century (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007). Current projections suggest mean annual air temperatures will increase by an additional 1–3°C, and early indications are that climate trajectory is at the higher end of this range (Pittock, 2006; Raupach and others, 2007). Although predicted changes vary considerably, even the most conservative estimates suggest a warming rate that will be twice that observed during the 20th century. Projections for the midcentury are most certainly due to the effects of greenhouse gases already emitted or predicted in the short term, uncertainties of the effects of longer-term greenhouse gas emissions, short-term climate cycles, and process errors associated with climate models (Cox and Stephenson, 2007). Projections of changes in total precipitation are less certain than those for air temperatures, but most GCMs project relatively small changes in the Northwest, with the exception of slightly drier summer periods (Mote and others, 2008; Karl and others, 2009). In the Southwest, however, significant decreases (such as 15–30 percent ) are projected during most periods of the year, and this area is one of the few for which Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007) precipitation projections have a high level of certainty (Hoerling and Eischeid, 2007; Karl and others, 2009). Clearly, managers of native salmonids in the wester n United States should consider adjusting management strategies to accommodate a warmer and possibly drier future (Williams and others, 2009). Tools are needed to forecast where important changes may occur and how conservation efforts should be prioritized. In this Open-File Report, we document our initial efforts in this regard for 10 species and subspecies of inland trout and Montana Arctic grayling ( Thymallus arcticus ) across the western United States.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nev↗

USGS2026

Coastal development

As a focal point of global urbanization, the coastal zone faces multiple pressures from human activities, land-sea interactions and natural disasters. Over the past five years, population, communities and infrastructure in coastal zones have consistently grown, alongside gradual economic recovery. Coastal pollution has become more complex owing to climate change and the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, necessitating enhanced monitoring and control measures. Public participation has been diversified but still faces difficulties in awareness-raising, policy strengthening, equity and comprehensiveness. For the coastal zone, integrated management will continue to be needed in order to achieve a balance between economic performance and ecological environment. Climate change will be a key factor to consider in every aspect of coastal zone development. To build inclusive, safe and disaster-resilient communities while reducing negative environmental impacts and achieving a sustainable coastal economy, greater emphasis must be placed on green-grey infrastructure, ecosystem-based approaches, institutional integration and sociocultural aspects. In addition, urgent breakthroughs are needed in areas such as data collection, technology synthesis, integrated land-sea management, transboundary cooperation and policies and technical innovations related to natural and nature-based features and nature-based solutions.

Report↗

USGS2022

Wind turbine wakes can impact down-wind vegetation greenness

Global wind energy has expanded 5-fold since 2010 and is predicted to expand another 8–10-fold over the next 30 years. Wakes generated by wind turbines can alter downwind microclimates and potentially downwind vegetation. However, the design of past studies has made it difficult to isolate the impact of wake effects on vegetation from land cover change. We used hourly wind data to model wake and non-wake zones around 17 wind facilities across the U.S. and compared remotely-sensed vegetation greenness in wake and non-wake zones before and after construction. We located sampling sites only in the dominant vegetation type and in areas that were not disturbed before or after construction. We found evidence for wake effects on vegetation greenness at 10 of 17 facilities for portions of, or the entire growing season. Evidence included statistical significance in Before After Control Impact statistical models, differences >3% between expected and observed values of vegetation greenness, and consistent spatial patterns of anomalies in vegetation greenness relative to turbine locations and wind direction. Wakes induced both increases and decreases in vegetation greenness, which may be difficult to predict prior to construction. The magnitude of wake effects depended primarily on precipitation and to a lesser degree aridity. Wake effects did not show trends over time following construction, suggesting the changes impact vegetation greenness within a growing season, but do not accrue over years. Even small changes in vegetation greenness, similar to those found in this study, have been seen to affect higher trophic levels. Given the rapid global growth of wind energy, and the importance of vegetation condition for agriculture, grazing, wildlife, and carbon storage, understanding how wakes from wind turbines impact vegetation is essential to exploit or ameliorate these effects.

Environmental Research Letters↗

USGS2017

Application of paleoecology to ecosystem restoration: A case study from south Florida’s estuaries

Paleoecological analyses of biotic assemblages from cores collected throughout south Florida’s estuaries indicate gradually increasing salinities over approximately the last 2000 years, consistent with rising sea level. Around the beginning of the twentieth century these gradual patterns of change began to shift, corresponding to the beginning of human alteration of the environment via canal construction, railroad construction and other land use changes. Between 1950 and 1960, at a time of significant construction of water management structures another distinctive shift in the biological assemblages occurred. Analysis of the assemblages provides essential information on long-term patterns of change in the estuaries and provides a basis for predicting future trajectories of change. Paleosalinity estimates derived from the cores are providing input to linear regression models to determine related freshwater flow into the estuaries of south Florida. These analyses are being used to help establish performance measures and targets for the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration, established following an Act of Congress in 2000. Restoration of south Florida’s ecosystems is slated to be a 30–50 year effort that will require detailed knowledge of past decadal to centennial-scale changes in climate, freshwater flow and salinity. This historical perspective provides information that allows land managers to set realistic and sustainable goals for restoration, and provides insight into the potential response of south Florida’s ecosystem to various future scenarios of global change.

Florida↗

USGS2000

The Amazon reveals its secrets--partly

The role of the tropics in global climate change during glacial cycles is hotly debated in paleoclimate cycles today. Records from South America have not provided a clear picture of tropical climate change. In his Perspective, Betancourt highlights the study by Maslin and Burns, who have deduced the outflow of the Amazon over the past 14,000 years. This may serve as a proxy that integrates hydrology over the entire South American tropics, although the record must be interpreted cautiously because factors other than rainfall may contribute to the variability in outflow.

Amazon River↗

USGS2024

Enhanced petrogenic organic carbon oxidation during the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum

The Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum (PETM; ∼56 Ma) is a hyperthermal event associated with the rapid input of carbon into the ocean-atmosphere system. The oxidation of petrogenic organic carbon (OC petro ) may have released additional carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), thereby prolonging the PETM. However, proxy-based estimates of OC petro oxidation are unavailable due to the lack of suitable techniques. Raman spectroscopy is used to evaluate OC petro oxidation in modern settings. For the first time, we explore whether Raman spectroscopy can evaluate OC petro oxidation during the PETM. In the mid-Atlantic Coastal Plain, there is a shift from disordered to graphitised carbon. This is consistent with enhanced oxidation of disordered OC petro and intensified physical erosion. In the Arctic Ocean, the distribution of graphitised carbon vs . disordered carbon does not change, suggesting limited variability in weathering intensity. Overall, this study provides the first evidence of increased OC petro oxidation during the PETM, although it was likely not globally uniform. Our work also highlights the utility of Raman spectroscopy as a novel tool to reconstruct OC petro oxidation in the past.

Geochemical Perspectives Letters↗

USGS2021

Joint effects of climate, tree size, and year on annual tree growth derived using tree-ring records of ten globally distributed forests

Tree rings provide an invaluable long-term record for understanding how climate and other drivers shape tree growth and forest productivity. However, conventional tree-ring analysis methods were not designed to simultaneously account for the effects of climate, tree size, and other drivers on individual growth, which has limited the potential to use tree rings to understand forest productivity, its climate sensitivity, and its global change responses. Here, we develop and apply a new method to simultaneously model non-linear effects of primary climate drivers, reconstructed tree diameter (DBH), and year in generalized least squares models that account for the temporal autocorrelation inherent to each individual tree’s growth. We analyze data from 3811 trees representing 40 species at 10 globally distributed sites, showing that precipitation, temperature, DBH, and calendar year have additively, and often interactively, influenced annual growth over the past 120 years. Growth responses were predominantly positive to precipitation (usually over ≥ 3-month seasonal windows) and negative to temperature (usually over ≤ 3-month seasonal windows), with both included in 78% of top models, and with non-linear responses prevalent (63% of relationships). Climate sensitivity commonly varied with DBH (44% of cases tested). Trends in ring width at small DBH were linked to the light environment under which trees established, but basal area or biomass increments consistently peaked at intermediate DBH and declined thereafter. Accounting for climate and DBH, growth rate declined over time for 92% of species in secondary or disturbed stands, whereas growth trends were mixed in older forests. These trends were largely attributable to stand dynamics as cohorts and stands age, which remain challenging to disentangle from global change drivers. By providing a parsimonious approach for characterizing multiple interacting drivers of tree growth, our method reveals a more complete picture of the factors influencing growth than has previously been possible.

Indiana, Massachusetts, New Mexico, Nebraska, Utah↗

USGS2017

Status of natural and human environment

This report present the results of the 2017 AMAP Assessment of Adaptation Actions for a changing Arctic (AACA): Perspectives form the Bering-Chukchi-Beaufort Region. This is one of three pilot study regions included in the AACA project. AACA is the first AMAP assessment dealing with adaptation actions and how to meet possible Arctic futures in these times of rapid chance. Information contained in this report is fully referenced and based first and foremost on peer-reviewed and published results of research and monitoring undertaken within the past decade. Care has been taken to ensure that no critical probability statements are based on non-peer-reviewed materials Access to reliable and up-to-date information is essential for the development of science-based decision-making regarding ongoing changes in the Arctic and their global implications.

Bering-Chukchi-Beaufort region↗

USGS2004

The Blackwater NWR inundation model. Rising sea level on a low-lying coast: land use planning for wetlands

The Blackwater National Wildlife Refuge (BNWR), on the Eastern Shore of Chesapeake Bay (figure 1), occupies an area less than 1 meter above sea level. The Refuge has been featured prominently in studies of the impact of sea level rise on coastal wetlands. Most notably, the refuge has been sited by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) as a key example of 'wetland loss' attributable to rising sea level due to global temperature increase. Comparative studies of aerial photos taken since 1938 show an expanding area of open water in the central area of the refuge. The expanding area of open water can be shown to parallel the record of sea level rise over the past 60 years. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) manages the refuge to support migratory waterfowl and to preserve endangered upland species. High marsh vegetation is critical to FWS waterfowl management strategies. A broad area once occupied by high marsh has decreased with rising sea level. The FWS needs a planning tool to help predict current and future areas of high marsh available for waterfowl. 'Wetland loss' is a relative term. It is dependant on the boundaries chosen for measurement. Wetland vegetation, zoned by elevation and salinity (figure 3), respond to rising sea level. Wetlands migrate inland and upslope and may vary in areas depending on the adjacent land slopes. Refuge managers need a geospatial tool that allows them to predict future areas that will be converted to high and intertidal marsh. Shifts in location and area of coverage must be anticipated. Viability of a current marsh area is also important. When will sea level rise make short-term management strategies to maintain an area impractical? The USGS has developed an inundation model for the BNWR centered on the refuge and surrounding areas. Such models are simple in concept, but they require a detailed topographic map upon which to superimpose future sea level positions. The new system of LIDAR mapping of land and shallow water surfaces has solved this problem. Our team has developed a detailed LIDAR map of the BNWR area at a 30 centimeter (ca. 1 ft) contour interval (figure 2). The new map allows us to identify the present marsh vegetation zones and to predict the location and area of future zones on a decade-by- decade basis over the next century at increments of sea level rise on the order of 3 cm/decade (ca. 1 inch). We have developed two scenarios for the model. The first is a steady-state model that uses the historic rate of sea level rise of 3.1 mm/yr to predict marsh areas. The second is a 'global warming' scenario utilizing a conservative IPCC model with an exponentially-increasing rate of sea level rise. Under either scenario, the BNWR is progressively inundated with an expanding core of open water. Although their positions change in the future, the areas of intertidal marsh as well as those of the critical high marsh remain fairly constant until the year 2050. Beyond that time, the low-lying land surface is overtopped by rising sea level and the area is dominated by open water. Our model suggests that wetland habitat in the Blackwater area might be maintained and sustained through a combination of public and private preservation efforts through easements in combination with judicious Federal land acquisition into the predicted areas of suitable marsh formation - but for only the next 50 years. Beyond that time much of this area will become open water.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2011

Are there pre-Quaternary geological analogues for a future greenhouse warming?

Given the inherent uncertainties in predicting how climate and environments will respond to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, it would be beneficial to society if science could identify geological analogues to the human race’s current grand climate experiment . This has been a focus of the geological and palaeoclimate communities over the last 30 years, with many scientific papers claiming that intervals in Earth history can be used as an analogue for future climate change. Using a coupled ocean–atmosphere modelling approach, we test this assertion for the most probable pre-Quaternary candidates of the last 100 million years: the Mid- and Late Cretaceous, the Palaeocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), the Early Eocene, as well as warm intervals within the Miocene and Pliocene epochs. These intervals fail as true direct analogues since they either represent equilibrium climate states to a long-term CO 2 forcing—whereas anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases provide a progressive (transient) forcing on climate—or the sensitivity of the climate system itself to CO 2 was different. While no close geological analogue exists, past warm intervals in Earth history provide a unique opportunity to investigate processes that operated during warm (high CO 2 ) climate states. Palaeoclimate and environmental reconstruction/modelling are facilitating the assessment and calculation of the response of global temperatures to increasing CO 2 concentrations in the longer term (multiple centuries); this is now referred to as the Earth System Sensitivity, which is critical in identifying CO 2 thresholds in the atmosphere that must not be crossed to avoid dangerous levels of climate change in the long term. Palaeoclimatology also provides a unique and independent way to evaluate the qualities of climate and Earth system models used to predict future climate.

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A:↗

USGS2002

Historical and future land use effects on N 2 O and NO emissions using an ensemble modeling approach: Costa Rica's Caribbean lowlands as an example

[1] The humid tropical zone is a major source area for N 2 O and NO emissions to the atmosphere. Local emission rates vary widely with local conditions, particularly land use practices which swiftly change with expanding settlement and changing market conditions. The combination of wide variation in emission rates and rapidly changing land use make regional estimation and future prediction of biogenic trace gas emission particularly difficult. This study estimates contemporary, historical, and future N 2 O and NO emissions from 0.5 million ha of northeastern Costa Rica, a well-documented region in the wet tropics undergoing rapid agricultural development. Estimates were derived by linking spatially distributed environmental data with an ecosystem simulation model in an ensemble estimation approach that incorporates the variance and covariance of spatially distributed driving variables. Results include measures of variance for regional emissions. The formation and aging of pastures from forest provided most of the past temporal change in N 2 O and NO flux in this region; future changes will be controlled by the degree of nitrogen fertilizer application and extent of intensively managed croplands.

Global Biogeochemical Cycles↗

USGS2020

Small gradients in salinity have large effects on stand water use in freshwater wetland forests

Salinity intrusion is responsible for changes to freshwater wetland watersheds globally, but little is known about how wetland water budgets might be influenced by small increments in salinity. We studied a forested wetland in South Carolina, USA, and installed sap flow probes on 72 trees/shrubs along a salinity gradient. Species investigated included the trees baldcypress ( Taxodium distichum [L.] Rich.), water tupelo ( Nyssa aquatica L.), swamp tupelo ( Nyssa biflora Walt.), and the shrub waxmyrtle ( Morella cerifera (L.) Small). This study improves upon past reliance on greenhouse seedling studies by adding measurements of trees/shrubs along a salinity gradient, and better describes the role of low salinity on water use in freshwater wetland forests. We measured patterns of water use related to salinity, atmospheric conditions and season, and hypothesized that salinity would influence wetland forest water use through two mechanisms: salinity disturbances would yield stands with species and size classes that transpire less and individual trees with less conductive xylem tissue (i.e., sapwood). Both hypotheses held. At salinity concentrations ranging from fresh to 3 psu, forest structural changes alone resulted in stand water use reductions from 494 mm year -1 in freshwater stands to 316 mm year -1 in stands of slightly higher salinity. Tree sapwood function (inferred from radial sap flux profiles) also changed along this gradient and reduced sap flow rates by an additional 13.3% per unit increase in salinity (psu). Thus, stand water use was further reduced to 190 mm year -1 on saline sites. We found that forest structure is not the only change that affects water use in salinized watersheds; individual tree eco-physiological responses to salinity, manifesting in different radial sap flow profiles, are important as well.

South Carolina↗

USGS2015

Biological response to climate change in the Arctic Ocean: The view from the past

The Arctic Ocean is undergoing rapid climatic changes including higher ocean temperatures, reduced sea ice, glacier and Greenland Ice Sheet melting, greater marine productivity, and altered carbon cycling. Until recently, the relationship between climate and Arctic biological systems was poorly known, but this has changed substantially as advances in paleoclimatology, micropaleontology, vertebrate paleontology, and molecular genetics show that Arctic ecosystem history reflects global and regional climatic changes over all timescales and climate states (10 3 –10 7 years). Arctic climatic extremes include 25°C hyperthermal periods during the Paleocene-Eocene (56–46 million years ago, Ma), Quaternary glacial periods when thick ice shelves and sea ice cover rendered the Arctic Ocean nearly uninhabitable, seasonally sea-ice-free interglacials and abrupt climate reversals. Climate-driven biological impacts included large changes in species diversity, primary productivity, species’ geographic range shifts into and out of the Arctic, community restructuring, and possible hybridization, but evidence is not sufficient to determine whether or when major episodes of extinction occurred.

arktos↗

USGS2025

Invasion of perennial sagebrush steppe by shallow-rooted exotic cheatgrass reduces stable forms of soil carbon in a warmer but not cooler ecoregion

Soil organic carbon ('SOC') in drylands comprises nearly a third of the global SOC pool and has relatively rapid turnover and thus is a key driver of variability in the global carbon cycle. SOC is also a sensitive indicator of longer-term directional change and disturbance-responses of ecosystem C storage. Biome-scale disruption of the dryland carbon cycle by exotic annual grass invasions (mainly Bromus tectorum, 'Cheatgrass') threatens carbon storage and corresponding benefits to soil hydrology and nutrient retention. Past studies on cheatgrass impacts mainly focused on total C, and of the few that evaluated SOC, none compared the very different fractions of SOC, such as relatively unstable particulate organic carbon (POC) or relatively stable, mineral-associated organic carbon (MAOC). We measured SOC and its POC and MAOC constituents in the surface soils of sites that had sagebrush canopies but differed in whether their understories had been invaded by cheatgrass or not, in both warm and relatively colder ecoregions of the western USA. MAOC stocks were 36.1% less in the 0–10 cm depth and 46.1% less in the 10–20 cm depth in the cheatgrass-invaded stands compared to the uninvaded stands of the warmer Colorado Plateau, but not in the cooler and more carbon-rich Wyoming Basin ecoregion. In plots where cheatgrass increased SOC, it was via unstable POC. These findings indicate that cheatgrass effects on the distribution of soil carbon among POC and MAOC fractions may vary among ecoregions, and that cheatgrass can reduce forms of carbon that are otherwise considered stable and 'secure', i.e. sequestered.

Environmental Research Communications↗

USGS2013

Species of conservation concern and environmental stressors: Local regional and global effects

Species conservation has traditionally been based on individual species within the context of their requisite habitat, which is generally defined as the communities and ecosystems deemed necessary for their presence. Conservation decisions are hampered by the fact that environmental stressors that poetically threaten the persistence of species can operate at organizational levels larger than the habitat or home range of a focal species. Resource managers must therefore simultaneously consider local, regional, and/or global scale stressors for effective conservation and management of species of concern. The wide ranging effects associated with global stressors such as climate change may exceed or exacerbate the effects of local or regional stressors, they still need to understand the direct and interactive effects of global stressors and ultimately how they affect the lands they manage. Conservation of species in southern Nevada is further complication by the fact that the region includes one of the largest and fastest growing urban centers in North America. To accomplish the goal of species conservation, resource managers must identify actionable management options that mitigate the effects of local and regional stressor in the context of the effects of global stressors that are beyond their control. Species conservation is typically focused on a subset often referred to as species of conservation concern that have either demonstrated considerable decline or are naturally rare or have limited distributions. Stressors can directly and indirectly impact species in a variety of ways and through a diversity of mechanisms. Some stressors have been more intense in the past (e.g., livestock grazing) whereas other are now only emerging as new stressors (e.g., solar energy development, climate change). The primary stressors affecting southern Nevada ecosystems are listed in table 2.1 and reviewed in detail in Chapter 2. This chapter addresses Dub-goal 1.4 in the SNAP Science Research Strategy which is to sustain and enhance southern Nevada's biotic communities to preserve biodiversity wand maintain viable populations (table 1.3; Turner and others 2009). We provide numerous examples of how stressors affect the range and/or habitat of select species of conservation concern. It is important to note that the species or groups discussed in this chapter by no means represent a comprehensive treatment of all species of conservation concern listed in Table 1.2 (Chapter 1). Rather, several species were chosen as examples for each southern Nevada ecosystem type to illustrate how stressors and linkages among them can affect species of conservation concern, keeping in mind that many of the species considered here are found in more than one ecosystem type. In addition, the stressors that may impact a species in one ecosystem may not be those that affect it in another ecosystem and different species in the same ecosystem may not be affected by the same suite of stressors. Finally, at the start of each ecosystem section we summarize key resource concerns, species used as examples, key stressors, and potential synergistic effects of those stressors relative to the species example.

Nevada↗

USGS2020

Increased typhoon activity in the Pacific deep tropics driven by Little Ice Age circulation changes

The instrumental record reveals that tropical cyclone activity is sensitive to oceanic and atmospheric variability on inter-annual and decadal scales. However, our understanding of the influence of climate on tropical cyclone behaviour is restricted by the short historical record and the sparseness of prehistorical reconstructions, particularly in the western North Pacific, where coastal communities suffer loss of life and livelihood from typhoons annually. Here, to explore past regional typhoon dynamics, we reconstruct three millennia of deep tropical North Pacific cyclogenesis. Combined with existing records, our reconstruction demonstrates that low-baseline typhoon activity prior to 1350 CE was followed by an interval of frequent storms during the Little Ice Age. This pattern, concurrent with hydroclimate proxy variability, suggests a centennial-scale link between Pacific hydroclimate and tropical cyclone climatology. An ensemble of global climate models demonstrates a migration of the Pacific Walker circulation and variability in two Pacific climate modes during the Little Ice Age, which probably contributed to enhanced tropical cyclone activity in the tropical western North Pacific. In the next century, projected changes to the Pacific Walker circulation and expansion of the tropics will invert these Little Ice Age hydroclimate trends, potentially reducing typhoon activity in the deep tropical Pacific.

Nature Geoscience↗

USGS2014

Response of Global Navigation Satellite System receivers to known shaking between 0.2 and 20 Hertz

Over the past decade, several technological advances have allowed Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) receivers to have the capability to record displacements at high frequencies, with sampling rates approaching 100 samples per second (sps). In addition, communication and computer hardware and software have allowed various institutions, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), to retrieve, process, and display position changes recorded by a network of GNSS sites with small, less than 1-s delays between the time that the GNSS receiver records signals from a constellation of satellites and the time that the position is estimated (a method known as “real-time”). These improvements in hardware and software have allowed the USGS to process GNSS (or a subset of the GNSS, the Global Positioning System, GPS) data in real-time at 1 sps with the goal of determining displacements from earthquakes and volcanoes in real-time. However, the current set of GNSS equipment can record at rates of 100 sps, which allows the possibility of using this equipment to record earthquake displacements over the full range of frequencies that typically are recorded by acceleration and velocity transducers. The advantage of using GNSS to record earthquakes is that the displacement, rather than acceleration or velocity, is recorded, and for large earthquakes, the GNSS sensor stays on scale and will not distort the observations due to clipping of the signal at its highest amplitude. The direct observation of displacement is advantageous in estimating the size and spatial extent of the earthquake rupture. Otherwise, when using velocity or acceleration sensors, the displacements are determined by numerical integration of the observations, which can introduce significant uncertainty in the estimated displacements. However, GNSS technology can, at best, resolve displacements of a few millimeters, and for most earthquakes, their displacements are less than 1 mm. Consequently, to be useful, GNSS data are only relevant for the large earthquakes with magnitudes (M) exceeding M5.5 at best. With the capability to record GNSS data at high-rate, at sampling rates typical for seismological applications, experiments are needed to quantify the response of GNSS to shaking from earthquakes. There have been a few studies that examine the response of GNSS to strong shaking. One of the first was Elosegui and others (2006), where they simulated surface waves from a distant earthquake and mechanically applied the shaking to a GPS antenna. They processed the 1 sps observations and compared the estimated displacements with the simulated displacements. They determined that the GPS could accurately track the simulated surface wave whose primary frequency spans from 0.01 to 0.1 Hertz (Hz), which spanned the frequency band of the simulation. To test GNSS equipment due to shaking from a large earthquake in the near-field, Wang and others (2012) used a mechanical simulator or shake table with 6 degrees of freedom and studied two different inputs to the simulator—(1) the accelerometer record from one station that was located near the 2010 M8.8 Maule, Chile earthquake, and (2) a 2-Hz sinusoid. Wang and others (2012) analyzed the 2-Hz data with spectral analysis and determined that the displacements observed by the GPS included higher harmonics along with the 2-Hz signal. In addition, the background spectral amplitude was greater during periods of 2-Hz shaking than when at rest. With the simulated M 8.8 earthquake, Wang and others (2012) observed decreased signal to noise for L1 and L2 carrier frequencies of the GPS signal, at times corresponding to high acceleration and jerk (first derivative of acceleration). One of the principal limitations of these experiments was that the displacements of the shake table itself could not be measured independently. Although with the 2-Hz sinusoidal measurements, the input displacements were purely translational, Wang and others (2012) analysis of the data showed that the shake table also included rotational motions which affect horizontal inertial sensors like accelerometers and seismometers at first order. More recently, Ebinuma and Kato (2012) used a GPS simulator to electronically test several GNSS receivers and obtain the receiver characteristics at three frequencies: 1, 2, and 5 Hz. The results showed that the amplitude of 5-Hz displacements recorded by the GPS was, depending on the receiver model, between 30 and 125 percent more than the displacement input to the simulator. At low frequencies, the GPS displacement was nearly equal to the input displacement. In addition, Ebinuma and Kato (2012) examined how each receiver model amplified an earthquake displacement record in the 2–8 Hz band. The simulated earthquake was the 2008 moment magnitude (Mw) 6.8 Iwate-Miyagi earthquake where, for the simulated record, acceleration peaked at 1 G. The study discussed here builds on the tests by Ebinuma and Kato (2012), but rather than using electronic simulation, the tests are setup outdoors and closer to actual field installations of GNSS equipment. We used a one-dimensional shake table capable of 400 mm of displacement and high acceleration; the shake table also is constrained by a precision linear slider to have very low tilt that would affect inertial sensors. In addition, the stage position can be accurately monitored independent of the GNSS hardware and, importantly, provides a reference to compare with the estimated displacements from the GNSS data. Our tests spanned a greater frequency range from 0.2 to 20 Hz and we used equipment from three different manufacturers covering five different combinations of receivers and antennas. In addition, we have been able to simulate the frequency response of the GNSS equipment using a simple, causal filter. The quality of the filter was tested using additional test data where a step function in displacement was applied to the shake table. The observed displacements from the GNSS data show an overshoot in displacement at the time of the step or transition of the stage. That overshoot was accurately predicted using the filter design derived from our sinusoidal displacement tests. Similar to Wang and others (2012), we also examined the GPS displacement records using standard spectral techniques. However, we extended their work by evaluating several models of GNSS receivers using a variety of input frequencies. Because our shake table was limited on acceleration and displacement, we did not attempt to duplicate the high shaking associated with high magnitude earthquakes. However, because our shake table could measure the table displacement, we could directly compare the measured GPS displacements with the true displacements.

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