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USGS2014

Influence of climate change on productivity of American White Pelicans, Pelecanus erythrorhynchos

In the past decade, severe weather and West Nile virus were major causes of chick mortality at American white pelican (Pelecanus erythrorhynchos) colonies in the northern plains of North America. At one of these colonies, Chase Lake National Wildlife Refuge in North Dakota, spring arrival by pelicans has advanced approximately 16 days over a period of 44 years (1965–2008). We examined phenology patterns of pelicans and timing of inclement weather through the 44-year period, and evaluated the consequence of earlier breeding relative to weather-related chick mortality. We found severe weather patterns to be random through time, rather than concurrently shifting with the advanced arrival of pelicans. In recent years, if nest initiations had followed the phenology patterns of 1965 (i.e., nesting initiated 16 days later), fewer chicks likely would have died from weather-related causes. That is, there would be fewer chicks exposed to severe weather during a vulnerable transition period that occurs between the stage when chicks are being brooded by adults and the stage when chicks from multiple nests become part of a thermally protective crèche.

North Dakota↗

USGS2013

Bayes and empirical Bayes estimators of abundance and density from spatial capture-recapture data

In capture-recapture and mark-resight surveys, movements of individuals both within and between sampling periods can alter the susceptibility of individuals to detection over the region of sampling. In these circumstances spatially explicit capture-recapture (SECR) models, which incorporate the observed locations of individuals, allow population density and abundance to be estimated while accounting for differences in detectability of individuals. In this paper I propose two Bayesian SECR models, one for the analysis of recaptures observed in trapping arrays and another for the analysis of recaptures observed in area searches. In formulating these models I used distinct submodels to specify the distribution of individual home-range centers and the observable recaptures associated with these individuals. This separation of ecological and observational processes allowed me to derive a formal connection between Bayes and empirical Bayes estimators of population abundance that has not been established previously. I showed that this connection applies to every Poisson point-process model of SECR data and provides theoretical support for a previously proposed estimator of abundance based on recaptures in trapping arrays. To illustrate results of both classical and Bayesian methods of analysis, I compared Bayes and empirical Bayes esimates of abundance and density using recaptures from simulated and real populations of animals. Real populations included two iconic datasets: recaptures of tigers detected in camera-trap surveys and recaptures of lizards detected in area-search surveys. In the datasets I analyzed, classical and Bayesian methods provided similar – and often identical – inferences, which is not surprising given the sample sizes and the noninformative priors used in the analyses.

PLoS ONE↗

USGS2013

Of travertine and time: otolith chemistry and microstructure detect provenance and demography of endangered humpback chub in Grand Canyon, USA

We developed a geochemical atlas of the Colorado River in Grand Canyon and in its tributary, the Little Colorado River, and used it to identify provenance and habitat use by Federally Endangered humpback chub, Gila cypha. Carbon stable isotope ratios (δ 13 C) discriminate best between the two rivers, but fine scale analysis in otoliths requires rare, expensive instrumentation. We therefore correlated other tracers (SrSr, Ba, and Se in ratio to Ca) to δ 13 C that are easier to quantify in otoliths with other microchemical techniques. Although the Little Colorado River’s water chemistry varies with major storm events, at base flow or near base flow (conditions occurring 84% of the time in our study) its chemistry differs sufficiently from the mainstem to discriminate one from the other. Additionally, when fish egress from the natal Little Colorado River to the mainstem, they encounter cold water which causes the otolith daily growth increments to decrease in size markedly. Combining otolith growth increment analysis and microchemistry permitted estimation of size and age at first egress; size at first birthday was also estimated. Emigrants < 1 year old averaged 51.2 ± 4.4 (SE) days and 35.5 ± 3.6 mm at egress; older fish that had recruited to the population averaged 100 ± 7.8 days old and 51.0 ± 2.2 mm at egress, suggesting that larger, older emigrants recruit better. Back-calculated size at age 1 was unimodal and large (78.2 ± 3.3 mm) in Little Colorado caught fish but was bimodally distributed in Colorado mainstem caught fish (49.9 ± 3.6 and 79 ± 4.9 mm) suggesting that humpback chub can also rear in the mainstem. The study demonstrates the coupled usage of the two rivers by this fish and highlights the need to consider both rivers when making management decisions for humpback chub recovery.

Arizona↗

USGS2014

Fluorescence-based classification of Caribbean coral reef organisms and substrates

A diverse group of coral reef organisms, representing several phyla, possess fluorescent pigments. We investigated the potential of using the characteristic fluorescence emission spectra of these pigments to enable unsupervised, optical classification of coral reef habitats. We compiled a library of characteristic fluorescence spectra through in situ and laboratory measurements from a variety of specimens throughout the Caribbean. Because fluorescent pigments are not species-specific, the spectral library is organized in terms of 15 functional groups. We investigated the spectral separability of the functional groups in terms of the number of wavebands required to distinguish between them, using the similarity measures Spectral Angle Mapper (SAM), Spectral Information Divergence (SID), SID-SAM mixed measure, and Mahalanobis distance. This set of measures represents geometric, stochastic, joint geometric-stochastic, and statistical approaches to classifying spectra. Our hyperspectral fluorescence data were used to generate sets of 4-, 6-, and 8-waveband spectra, including random variations in relative signal amplitude, spectral peak shifts, and water-column attenuation. Each set consisted of 2 different band definitions: ‘optimally-picked’ and ‘evenly-spaced.’ The optimally-picked wavebands were chosen to coincide with as many peaks as possible in the functional group spectra. Reference libraries were formed from half of the spectra in each set and used for training purposes. Average classification accuracies ranged from 76.3% for SAM with 4 evenly-spaced wavebands to 93.8% for Mahalanobis distance with 8 evenly-spaced wavebands. The Mahalanobis distance consistently outperformed the other measures. In a second test, empirically-measured spectra were classified using the same reference libraries and the Mahalanobis distance for just the 8 evenly-spaced waveband case. Average classification accuracies were 84% and 87%, corresponding to the extremes in modeled water-column attenuation. The classification results from both tests indicate that a high degree of separability among the 15 fluorescent-spectra functional groups is possible using only a modest number of spectral bands.

PLoS ONE↗

USGS2013

Nutrient limitation of native and invasive N 2 -fixing plants in northwest prairies

Nutrient rich conditions often promote plant invasions, yet additions of non-nitrogen (N) nutrients may provide a novel approach for conserving native symbiotic N-fixing plants in otherwise N-limited ecosystems. Lupinus oreganus is a threatened N-fixing plant endemic to prairies in western Oregon and southwest Washington (USA). We tested the effect of non-N fertilizers on the growth, reproduction, tissue N content, and stable isotope δ 15 N composition of Lupinus at three sites that differed in soil phosphorus (P) and N availability. We also examined changes in other Fabaceae (primarily Vicia sativa and V. hirsuta) and cover of all plant species. Variation in background soil P and N availability shaped patterns of nutrient limitation across sites. Where soil P and N were low, P additions increased Lupinus tissue N and altered foliar δ 15 N, suggesting P limitation of N fixation. Where soil P was low but N was high, P addition stimulated growth and reproduction in Lupinus. At a third site, with higher soil P, only micro- and macronutrient fertilization without N and P increased Lupinus growth and tissue N. Lupinus foliar δ 15 N averaged −0.010‰ across all treatments and varied little with tissue N, suggesting consistent use of fixed N. In contrast, foliar δ 15 N of Vicia spp. shifted towards 0‰ as tissue N increased, suggesting that conditions fostering N fixation may benefit these exotic species. Fertilization increased cover, N fixation, and tissue N of non-target, exotic Fabaceae, but overall plant community structure shifted at only one site, and only after the dominant Lupinus was excluded from analyses. Our finding that non-N fertilization increased the performance of Lupinus with few community effects suggests a potential strategy to aid populations of threatened legume species. The increase in exotic Fabaceae species that occurred with fertilization further suggests that monitoring and adaptive management should accompany any large scale applications.

Oregon↗

USGS2014

Cenozoic planktonic marine diatom diversity and correlation to climate change

Marine planktonic diatoms export carbon to the deep ocean, playing a key role in the global carbon cycle. Although commonly thought to have diversified over the Cenozoic as global oceans cooled, only two conflicting quantitative reconstructions exist, both from the Neptune deep-sea microfossil occurrences database. Total diversity shows Cenozoic increase but is sample size biased; conventional subsampling shows little net change. We calculate diversity from a separately compiled new diatom species range catalog, and recalculate Neptune subsampled-in-bin diversity using new methods to correct for increasing Cenozoic geographic endemism and decreasing Cenozoic evenness. We find coherent, substantial Cenozoic diversification in both datasets. Many living cold water species, including species important for export productivity, originate only in the latest Miocene or younger. We make a first quantitative comparison of diatom diversity to the global Cenozoic benthic ∂ 18 O (climate) and carbon cycle records (∂ 13 C, and 20-0 Ma pCO 2 ). Warmer climates are strongly correlated with lower diatom diversity (raw: rho = .92, p<.001; detrended, r = .6, p = .01). Diatoms were 20% less diverse in the early late Miocene, when temperatures and pCO 2 were only moderately higher than today. Diversity is strongly correlated to both ∂ 13 C and pCO 2 over the last 15 my (for both: r>.9, detrended r>.6, all p<.001), but only weakly over the earlier Cenozoic, suggesting increasingly strong linkage of diatom and climate evolution in the Neogene. Our results suggest that many living marine planktonic diatom species may be at risk of extinction in future warm oceans, with an unknown but potentially substantial negative impact on the ocean biologic pump and oceanic carbon sequestration. We cannot however extrapolate our my-scale correlations with generic climate proxies to anthropogenic time-scales of warming without additional species-specific information on proximate ecologic controls.

PLoS ONE↗

USGS2014

How much Is enough? Minimal responses of water quality and stream biota to partial retrofit stormwater management in a suburban neighborhood

Decentralized stormwater management approaches (e.g., biofiltration swales, pervious pavement, green roofs, rain gardens) that capture, detain, infiltrate, and filter runoff are now commonly used to minimize the impacts of stormwater runoff from impervious surfaces on aquatic ecosystems. However, there is little research on the effectiveness of retrofit, parcel-scale stormwater management practices for improving downstream aquatic ecosystem health. A reverse auction was used to encourage homeowners to mitigate stormwater on their property within the suburban, 1.8 km 2 Shepherd Creek catchment in Cincinnati, Ohio (USA). In 2007–2008, 165 rain barrels and 81 rain gardens were installed on 30% of the properties in four experimental (treatment) subcatchments, and two additional subcatchments were maintained as controls. At the base of the subcatchments, we sampled monthly baseflow water quality, and seasonal (5×/year) physical habitat, periphyton assemblages, and macroinvertebrate assemblages in the streams for the three years before and after treatment implementation. Given the minor reductions in directly connected impervious area from the rain barrel installations (11.6% to 10.4% in the most impaired subcatchment) and high total impervious levels (13.1% to 19.9% in experimental subcatchments), we expected minor or no responses of water quality and biota to stormwater management. There were trends of increased conductivity, iron, and sulfate for control sites, but no such contemporaneous trends for experimental sites. The minor effects of treatment on streamflow volume and water quality did not translate into changes in biotic health, and the few periphyton and macroinvertebrate responses could be explained by factors not associated with the treatment (e.g., vegetation clearing, drought conditions). Improvement of overall stream health is unlikely without additional treatment of major impervious surfaces (including roads, apartment buildings, and parking lots). Further research is needed to define the minimum effect threshold and restoration trajectories for retrofitting catchments to improve the health of stream ecosystems.

Ohio↗

USGS2014

Variability in seroprevalence of rabies virus neutralizing antibodies and associated factors in a Colorado population of big brown bats (Eptesicus fuscus)

In 2001–2005 we sampled permanently marked big brown bats (Eptesicus fuscus) at summer roosts in buildings at Fort Collins, Colorado, for rabies virus neutralizing antibodies (RVNA). Seroprevalence was higher in adult females (17.9%, n = 2,332) than males (9.4%, n = 128; P = 0.007) or volant juveniles (10.2%, n = 738; P<0.0001). Seroprevalence was lowest in a drought year with local insecticide use and highest in the year with normal conditions, suggesting that environmental stress may suppress RVNA production in big brown bats. Seroprevalence also increased with age of bat, and varied from 6.2 to 26.7% among adult females at five roosts sampled each year for five years. Seroprevalence of adult females at 17 other roosts sampled for 1 to 4 years ranged from 0.0 to 47.1%. Using logistic regression, the only ranking model in our candidate set of explanatory variables for serological status at first sampling included year, day of season, and a year by day of season interaction that varied with relative drought conditions. The presence or absence of antibodies in individual bats showed temporal variability. Year alone provided the best model to explain the likelihood of adult female bats showing a transition to seronegative from a previously seropositive state. Day of the season was the only competitive model to explain the likelihood of a transition from seronegative to seropositive, which increased as the season progressed. We found no rabies viral RNA in oropharyngeal secretions of 261 seropositive bats or in organs of 13 euthanized seropositive bats. Survival of seropositive and seronegative bats did not differ. The presence of RVNA in serum of bats should not be interpreted as evidence for ongoing rabies infection.

Colorado↗

USGS2014

Mercury in the soil of two contrasting watersheds in the eastern United States

Soil represents the largest store of mercury (Hg) in terrestrial ecosystems, and further study of the factors associated with soil Hg storage is needed to address concerns about the magnitude and persistence of global environmental Hg bioaccumulation. To address this need, we compared total Hg and methyl Hg concentrations and stores in the soil of different landscapes in two watersheds in different geographic settings with similar and relatively high methyl Hg concentrations in surface waters and biota, Fishing Brook, Adirondack Mountains, New York, and McTier Creek, Coastal Plain, South Carolina. Median total Hg concentrations and stores in organic and mineral soil samples were three-fold greater at Fishing Brook than at McTier Creek. Similarly, median methyl Hg concentrations were about two-fold greater in Fishing Brook soil than in McTier Creek soil, but this difference was significant only for mineral soil samples, and methyl Hg stores were not significantly different among these watersheds. In contrast, the methyl Hg/total Hg ratio was significantly greater at McTier Creek suggesting greater climate-driven methylation efficiency in the Coastal Plain soil than that of the Adirondack Mountains. The Adirondack soil had eight-fold greater soil organic matter than that of the Coastal Plain, consistent with greater total Hg stores in the northern soil, but soil organic matter – total Hg relations differed among the sites. A strong linear relation was evident at McTier Creek (r 2 = 0.68; p<0.001), but a linear relation at Fishing Brook was weak (r 2 = 0.13; p<0.001) and highly variable across the soil organic matter content range, suggesting excess Hg binding capacity in the Adirondack soil. These results suggest greater total Hg turnover time in Adirondack soil than that of the Coastal Plain, and that future declines in stream water Hg concentrations driven by declines in atmospheric Hg deposition will be more gradual and prolonged in the Adirondacks.

New York;South Carolina↗

USGS2014

Isolation and molecular characterization of a novel picornavirus from baitfish in the USA

During both regulatory and routine surveillance sampling of baitfish from the states of Illinois, Minnesota, Montana, and Wisconsin, USA, isolates (n = 20) of a previously unknown picornavirus were obtained from kidney/spleen or entire viscera of fathead minnows ( Pimephales promelas ) and brassy minnows ( Hybognathus hankinsoni ). Following the appearance of a diffuse cytopathic effect, examination of cell culture supernatant by negative contrast electron microscopy revealed the presence of small, round virus particles (&sim;30–32 nm), with picornavirus-like morphology. Amplification and sequence analysis of viral RNA identified the agent as a novel member of the Picornaviridae family, tentatively named fathead minnow picornavirus (FHMPV). The full FHMPV genome consisted of 7834 nucleotides. Phylogenetic analysis based on 491 amino acid residues of the 3D gene showed 98.6% to 100% identity among the 20 isolates of FHMPV compared in this study while only 49.5% identity with its nearest neighbor, the bluegill picornavirus (BGPV) isolated from bluegill ( Lepomis macrochirus ). Based on complete polyprotein analysis, the FHMPV shared 58% (P1), 33% (P2) and 43% (P3) amino acid identities with BGPV and shared less than 40% amino acid identity with all other picornaviruses. Hence, we propose the creation of a new genus ( Piscevirus ) within the Picornaviridae family. The impact of FHMPV on the health of fish populations is unknown at present.

Illinois, Minnesota, Montana, Wisconsin↗

USGS2014

Market forces and technological substitutes cause fluctuations in the value of bat pest-control services for cotton

Critics of the market-based, ecosystem services approach to biodiversity conservation worry that volatile market conditions and technological substitutes will diminish the value of ecosystem services and obviate the “economic benefits” arguments for conservation. To explore the effects of market forces and substitutes on service values, we assessed how the value of the pest-control services provided by Mexican free-tailed bats (Tadarida brasiliensis mexicana) to cotton production in the southwestern U.S. has changed over time. We calculated service values each year from 1990 through 2008 by estimating the value of avoided crop damage and the reduced social and private costs of insecticide use in the presence of bats. Over this period, the ecosystem service value declined by 79% ($19.09 million U.S. dollars) due to the introduction and widespread adoption of Bt (Bacillus thuringiensis) cotton transgenically modified to express its own pesticide, falling global cotton prices and the reduction in the number of hectares in the U.S. planted with cotton. Our results demonstrate that fluctuations in market conditions can cause temporal variation in ecosystem service values even when ecosystem function – in this case bat population numbers – is held constant. Evidence is accumulating, however, of the evolution of pest resistance to Bt cotton, suggesting that the value of bat pest-control services may increase again. This gives rise to an economic option value argument for conserving Mexican free-tailed bat populations. We anticipate that these results will spur discussion about the role of ecosystem services in biodiversity conservation in general, and bat conservation in particular.

PLoS ONE↗

USGS2014

Trap configuration and spacing influences parameter estimates in spatial capture-recapture models

An increasing number of studies employ spatial capture-recapture models to estimate population size, but there has been limited research on how different spatial sampling designs and trap configurations influence parameter estimators. Spatial capture-recapture models provide an advantage over non-spatial models by explicitly accounting for heterogeneous detection probabilities among individuals that arise due to the spatial organization of individuals relative to sampling devices. We simulated black bear ( Ursus americanus) populations and spatial capture-recapture data to evaluate the influence of trap configuration and trap spacing on estimates of population size and a spatial scale parameter, sigma, that relates to home range size. We varied detection probability and home range size, and considered three trap configurations common to large-mammal mark-recapture studies: regular spacing, clustered, and a temporal sequence of different cluster configurations (i.e., trap relocation). We explored trap spacing and number of traps per cluster by varying the number of traps. The clustered arrangement performed well when detection rates were low, and provides for easier field implementation than the sequential trap arrangement. However, performance differences between trap configurations diminished as home range size increased. Our simulations suggest it is important to consider trap spacing relative to home range sizes, with traps ideally spaced no more than twice the spatial scale parameter. While spatial capture-recapture models can accommodate different sampling designs and still estimate parameters with accuracy and precision, our simulations demonstrate that aspects of sampling design, namely trap configuration and spacing, must consider study area size, ranges of individual movement, and home range sizes in the study population.

PLoS ONE↗

USGS2014

Whitebark pine, population density, and home-range size of grizzly bears in the greater Yellowstone ecosystem

Changes in life history traits of species can be an important indicator of potential factors influencing populations. For grizzly bears ( Ursus arctos ) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE), recent decline of whitebark pine (WBP; Pinus albicaulis ), an important fall food resource, has been paired with a slowing of population growth following two decades of robust population increase. These observations have raised questions whether resource decline or density-dependent processes may be associated with changes in population growth. Distinguishing these effects based on changes in demographic rates can be difficult. However, unlike the parallel demographic responses expected from both decreasing food availability and increasing population density, we hypothesized opposing behavioral responses of grizzly bears with regard to changes in home-range size. We used the dynamic changes in food resources and population density of grizzly bears as a natural experiment to examine hypotheses regarding these potentially competing influences on grizzly bear home-range size. We found that home-range size did not increase during the period of whitebark pine decline and was not related to proportion of whitebark pine in home ranges. However, female home-range size was negatively associated with an index of population density. Our data indicate that home-range size of grizzly bears in the GYE is not associated with availability of WBP, and, for female grizzly bears, increasing population density may constrain home-range size.

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming↗

USGS2014

Disease and predation: Sorting out causes of a bighorn sheep ( Ovis canadensis ) decline

Estimating survival and documenting causes and timing of mortality events in neonate bighorn sheep ( Ovis canadensis ) improves understanding of population ecology and factors influencing recruitment. During 2010–2012, we captured and radiocollared 74 neonates in the Black Hills, South Dakota, of which 95% (70) died before 52 weeks of age. Pneumonia (36%) was the leading cause of mortality followed by predation (30%). We used known fate analysis in Program MARK to estimate weekly survival rates and investigate the influence of intrinsic variables on 52-week survival. Model {S 1 wk, 2–8 wks, >8 wks } had the lowest AIC c (Akaike’s Information Criterion corrected for small sample size) value, indicating that age (3-stage age-interval: 1 week, 2–8 weeks, and >8 weeks) best explained survival. Weekly survival estimates for 1 week, 2–8 weeks, and >8 weeks were 0.81 (95% CI = 0.70–0.88), 0.86 (95% CI = 0.81–0.90), and 0.94 (95% CI = 0.91–0.96), respectively. Overall probability of surviving 52 weeks was 0.02 (95% CI = 0.01–0.07). Of 70 documented mortalities, 21% occurred during the first week, 55% during weeks 2–8, and 23% occurred >8 weeks of age. We found pneumonia and predation were temporally heterogeneous with lambs most susceptible to predation during the first 2–3 weeks of life, while the greatest risk from pneumonia occurred from weeks 4–8. Our results indicated pneumonia was the major factor limiting recruitment followed by predation. Mortality from predation may have been partly compensatory to pneumonia and its effects were less pronounced as alternative prey became available. Given the high rates of pneumonia-caused mortality we observed, and the apparent lack of pneumonia-causing pathogens in bighorn populations in the western Black Hills, management activities should be geared towards eliminating contact between diseased and healthy populations.

South Dakota↗

USGS2014

Resource selection by the California condor (Gymnogyps californianus) relative to terrestrial-based habitats and meteorological conditions

Condors and vultures are distinct from most other terrestrial birds because they use extensive soaring flight for their daily movements. Therefore, assessing resource selection by these avian scavengers requires quantifying the availability of terrestrial-based habitats, as well as meteorological variables that influence atmospheric conditions necessary for soaring. In this study, we undertook the first quantitative assessment of habitat- and meteorological-based resource selection in the endangered California condor ( Gymnogyps californianu s) within its California range and across the annual cycle. We found that condor use of terrestrial areas did not change markedly within the annual cycle, and that condor use was greatest for habitats where food resources and potential predators could be detected and where terrain was amenable for taking off from the ground in flight (e.g., sparse habitats, coastal areas). Condors originating from different release sites differed in their use of habitat, but this was likely due in part to variation in habitats surrounding release sites. Meteorological conditions were linked to condor use of ecological subregions, with thermal height, thermal velocity, and wind speed having both positive (selection) and negative (avoidance) effects on condor use in different areas. We found little evidence of systematic effects between individual characteristics (i.e., sex, age, breeding status) or components of the species management program (i.e., release site, rearing method) relative to meteorological conditions. Our findings indicate that habitat type and meteorological conditions can interact in complex ways to influence condor resource selection across landscapes, which is noteworthy given the extent of anthropogenic stressors that may impact condor populations (e.g., lead poisoning, wind energy development). Additional studies will be valuable to assess small-scale condor movements in light of these stressors to help minimize their risk to this critically endangered species.

California↗

USGS2014

Production of hybrids between western gray wolves and western coyotes

Using artificial insemination we attempted to produce hybrids between captive, male, western, gray wolves (Canis lupus) and female, western coyotes (Canis latrans) to determine whether their gametes would be compatible and the coyotes could produce and nurture offspring. The results contribute new information to an ongoing controversy over whether the eastern wolf (Canis lycaon) is a valid unique species that could be subject to the U. S. Endangered Species Act. Attempts with transcervically deposited wolf semen into nine coyotes over two breeding seasons yielded three coyote pregnancies. One coyote ate her pups, another produced a resorbed fetus and a dead fetus by C-section, and the third produced seven hybrids, six of which survived. These results show that, although it might be unlikely for male western wolves to successfully produce offspring with female western coyotes under natural conditions, western-gray-wolf sperm are compatible with western-coyote ova and that at least one coyote could produce and nurture hybrid offspring. This finding in turn demonstrates that gamete incompatibility would not have prevented western, gray wolves from inseminating western coyotes and thus producing hybrids with coyote mtDNA, a claim that counters the view that the eastern wolf is a separate species. However, some of the difficulties experienced by the other inseminated coyotes tend to temper that finding and suggest that more experimentation is needed, including determining the behavioral and physical compatibility of western gray wolves copulating with western coyotes. Thus although our study adds new information to the controversy, it does not settle it. Further study is needed to determine whether the putative Canis lycaon is indeed a unique species.

PLoS ONE↗

USGS2014

Land cover and topography affect the land transformation caused by wind facilities

Land transformation (ha of surface disturbance/MW) associated with wind facilities shows wide variation in its reported values. In addition, no studies have attempted to explain the variation across facilities. We digitized land transformation at 39 wind facilities using high resolution aerial imagery. We then modeled the effects of turbine size, configuration, land cover, and topography on the levels of land transformation at three spatial scales. The scales included strings (turbines with intervening roads only), sites (strings with roads connecting them, buried cables and other infrastructure), and entire facilities (sites and the roads or transmission lines connecting them to existing infrastructure). An information theoretic modeling approach indicated land cover and topography were well-supported variables affecting land transformation, but not turbine size or configuration. Tilled landscapes, despite larger distances between turbines, had lower average land transformation, while facilities in forested landscapes generally had the highest land transformation. At site and string scales, flat topographies had the lowest land transformation, while facilities on mesas had the largest. The results indicate the landscape in which the facilities are placed affects the levels of land transformation associated with wind energy. This creates opportunities for optimizing wind energy production while minimizing land cover change. In addition, the results indicate forecasting the impacts of wind energy on land transformation should include the geographic variables affecting land transformation reported here.

PLoS ONE↗

USGS2014

Using auxiliary information to improve wildlife disease surveillance when infected animals are not detected: A Bayesian approach

There are numerous situations in which it is important to determine whether a particular disease of interest is present in a free-ranging wildlife population. However adequate disease surveillance can be labor-intensive and expensive and thus there is substantial motivation to conduct it as efficiently as possible. Surveillance is often based on the assumption of a simple random sample, but this can almost always be improved upon if there is auxiliary information available about disease risk factors. We present a Bayesian approach to disease surveillance when auxiliary risk information is available which will usually allow for substantial improvements over simple random sampling. Others have employed risk weights in surveillance, but this can result in overly optimistic statements regarding freedom from disease due to not accounting for the uncertainty in the auxiliary information; our approach remedies this. We compare our Bayesian approach to a published example of risk weights applied to chronic wasting disease in deer in Colorado, and we also present calculations to examine when uncertainty in the auxiliary information has a serious impact on the risk weights approach. Our approach allows “apples-to-apples” comparisons of surveillance efficiencies between units where heterogeneous samples were collected

PLoS ONE↗