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USGS2012

Climatic trends over Ethiopia: regional signals and drivers

This study analyses observed and projected climatic trends over Ethiopia, through analysis of temperature and rainfall records and related meteorological fields. The observed datasets include gridded station records and reanalysis products; while projected trends are analysed from coupled model simulations drawn from the IPCC 4th Assessment. Upward trends in air temperature of + 0.03 °C year −1 and downward trends in rainfall of − 0.4 mm month −1 year −1 have been observed over Ethiopia's southwestern region in the period 1948-2006. These trends are projected to continue to 2050 according to the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab model using the A1B scenario. Large scale forcing derives from the West Indian Ocean where significant warming and increased rainfall are found. Anticyclonic circulations have strengthened over northern and southern Africa, limiting moisture transport from the Gulf of Guinea and Congo. Changes in the regional Walker and Hadley circulations modulate the observed and projected climatic trends. Comparing past and future patterns, the key features spread westward from Ethiopia across the Sahel and serve as an early warning of potential impacts.

International Journal of Climatology↗

USGS2013

Rupture history of the 2011 M 9 Tohoku Japan earthquake determined from strong‐motion and high‐rate GPS recordings: Subevents radiating energy in different frequency bands

Strong‐motion records from KiK‐net and K‐NET, along with 1 sample/s Global Positioning System (GPS) records from GEONET, were analyzed to determine the location, timing, and slip of subevents of the M 9 2011 Tohoku earthquake. Timing of arrivals on stations along the coast shows that the first subevent was located closer to the coast than subevent (2), which produced the largest slip. A waveform inversion of data from 0 to 0.2 Hz indicates that the first subevent primarily ruptured down‐dip and north of the hypocenter and had an M of 8.5. The areas of this subevent that generated the low (<0.2 Hz) and high (>0.2 Hz) frequency energy are located in the same vicinity. The inversion result for the second subevent ( M 9.0) has large slip on the shallow part of the fault with peak slip of about 65 m above about 25 km depth. This slip generated the tsunami. The preferred inversion has initiation of subevent 2 on the shallow portion of the fault so that rupture proceeded down‐dip and mainly to the south. Subevent 2 started about 35 s after subevent 1, which allows for the possibility of dynamic triggering from subevent 1. The slip model predicts displacements comparable to those found from ocean‐bottom transducers near the epicenter. At frequencies that most affect tall buildings (0.1–0.5 Hz), there is a strong pulse (subevent 3) in the strong‐motion records that arrives after the near‐field ramp from subevent 2. High‐frequency subevent 3 was located down‐dip and south of the high‐slip portion of subevent 2 and was initiated as rupture from subevent 2 proceeded down‐dip. The compact pulse for subevent 3 is modeled with an M 8.0 source in a 75 by 30 km area that ruptured down‐dip and to the south with a high slip velocity, indicating high stress drop.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2016

Multi-decadal increases in dissolved organic carbon and alkalinity flux from the Mackenzie drainage basin to the Arctic Ocean

Riverine exports of organic and inorganic carbon (OC, IC) to oceans are intricately linked to processes occurring on land. Across high latitudes, thawing permafrost, alteration of hydrologic flow paths, and changes in vegetation may all affect this flux, with subsequent implications for regional and global carbon (C) budgets. Using a unique, multi-decadal dataset of continuous discharge coupled with water chemistry measurements for the Mackenzie River, we show major increases in dissolved OC (DOC) and IC (as alkalinity) fluxes since the early 1970s, for a watershed that covers 1.8 M km 2 of northwestern Canada, and provides substantial inputs of freshwater and biogeochemical constituents to the Arctic Ocean. Over a 39-year period of record, DOC flux at the Mackenzie mouth increased by 39.3% (44.5 ± 22.6 Gmol), while alkalinity flux increased by 12.5% (61.5 ± 60.1 Gmol). Isotopic analyses and substantial increases in sulfate flux indicate that increases in alkalinity are driven by accelerating sulfide oxidation, a process that liberates IC from rock and soils in the absence of CO 2 consumption. Seasonal and sub-catchment trends suggest that permafrost thaw plays an important role in the observed increases in DOC and alkalinity: sub-catchment increases for all constituents are confined to northern, permafrost-affected regions, while observed increases in autumn to winter are consistent with documented landscape-scale changes that have resulted from changing thaw dynamics. This increase in DOC and sulfide-derived alkalinity represents a substantial intensification of land-to-ocean C mobilization, at a level that is significant within the regional C budget. The change we observe, for example, is similar to current and projected future rates of CO 2 consumption by weathering in the Mackenzie basin.

Environmental Research Letters↗

USGS2010

An analysis of the carbon balance of the Arctic Basin from 1997 to 2006

This study used several model-based tools to analyse the dynamics of the Arctic Basin between 1997 and 2006 as a linked system of land-ocean-atmosphere C exchange. The analysis estimates that terrestrial areas of the Arctic Basin lost 62.9 Tg C yr -1 and that the Arctic Ocean gained 94.1 Tg C yr -1 . Arctic lands and oceans were a net CO 2 sink of 108.9 Tg C yr -1 , which is within the range of uncertainty in estimates from atmospheric inversions. Although both lands and oceans of the Arctic were estimated to be CO 2 sinks, the land sink diminished in strength because of increased fire disturbance compared to previous decades, while the ocean sink increased in strength because of increased biological pump activity associated with reduced sea ice cover. Terrestrial areas of the Arctic were a net source of 41.5 Tg CH 4 yr -1 that increased by 0.6 Tg CH 4 yr -1 during the decade of analysis, a magnitude that is comparable with an atmospheric inversion of CH 4 . Because the radiative forcing of the estimated CH 4 emissions is much greater than the CO 2 sink, the analysis suggests that the Arctic Basin is a substantial net source of green house gas forcing to the climate system.

Tellus, Series B: Chemical and Physical Meteorolog↗

USGS2009

Channel change and bed-material transport in the Lower Chetco River, Oregon

The lower Chetco River is a wandering gravel-bed river flanked by abundant and large gravel bars formed of coarse bed-material sediment. The large gravel bars have been a source of commercial aggregate since the early twentieth century for which ongoing permitting and aquatic habitat concerns have motivated this assessment of historical channel change and sediment transport rates. Analysis of historical channel change and bed-material transport rates for the lower 18 kilometers show that the upper reaches of the study area are primarily transport zones, with bar positions fixed by valley geometry and active bars mainly providing transient storage of bed material. Downstream reaches, especially near the confluence of the North Fork Chetco River, have been zones of active sedimentation and channel migration. Multiple analyses, supported by direct measurements of bedload during winter 2008–09, indicate that since 1970 the mean annual flux of bed material into the study reach has been about 40,000–100,000 cubic meters per year. Downstream tributary input of bed-material sediment, probably averaging 5–30 percent of the influx coming into the study reach from upstream, is approximately balanced by bed-material attrition by abrasion. Probably very little bed material leaves the lower river under natural conditions, with most of the net influx historically accumulating in wider and more dynamic reaches, especially near the North Fork Chetco River confluence, 8 kilometers upstream from the Pacific Ocean. The year-to-year flux, however, varies tremendously. Some years probably have less than 3,000 cubic meters of bed-material entering the study area; by contrast, some high-flow years, such as 1982 and 1997, likely have more than 150,000 cubic meters entering the reach. For comparison, the estimated annual volume of gravel extracted from the lower Chetco River for commercial aggregate during 2000–2008 has ranged from 32,000 to 90,000 cubic meters and averaged about 59,000 cubic meters per year. Mined volumes probably exceeded 140,000 cubic meters per year for several years in the late 1970s. Repeat surveys and map analyses indicate a reduction in bar area and sinuosity between 1939 and 2008, chiefly in the period 1965–95. Repeat topographic and bathymetric surveys show channel incision for substantial portions of the study reach, with local areas of bed lowering by as much as 2 meters. A specific gage analysis at the upstream end of the study reach indicates that incision and narrowing followed aggradation culminating in the late 1970s. These observations are all consistent with a reduction of sediment supply relative to transport capacity since channel surveys in the late 1970s, probably owing to a combination of (1) bed-sediment removal and (2) transient river adjustments to large sediment volumes brought by floods such as those in 1964, and to a lesser extent, 1996.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2013

Emergency management response to a warning-level Alaska-source tsunami impacting California: Chapter J in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

This chapter is directed towards two audiences: Firstly, it targets nonemergency management readers, providing them with insight on the process and challenges facing emergency managers in responding to tsunami Warning, particularly given this “short fuse” scenario. It is called “short fuse” because there is only a 5.5-hour window following the earthquake before arrival of the tsunami within which to evaluate the threat, disseminate alert and warning messages, and respond. This action initiates a period when crisis communication is of paramount importance. An additional dynamic that is important to note is that within 15 minutes of the earthquake, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the National Weather Service (NWS) will issue alert bulletins for the entire Pacific Coast. This is one-half the time actually presented by recent tsunamis from Japan, Chile, and Samoa. Second, the chapter provides emergency managers at all levels with insights into key considerations they may need to address in order to augment their existing plans and effectively respond to tsunami events. We look at emergency management response to the tsunami threat from three perspectives:“Top Down” (Threat analysis and Alert/Warning information from the Federal agency charged with Alert and Warning) “Bottom Up” (Emergency management’s Incident Command approach to responding to emergencies and disasters based on the needs of impacted local jurisdictions) “Across Time” (From the initiating earthquake event through emergency response) We focus on these questions: What are the government roles, relationships, and products that support Tsunami Alert and Warning dissemination? (Emergency Planning and Preparedness.) What roles, relationships, and products support emergency management response to Tsunami Warning and impact? (Engendering prudent public safety response.) What are the key emergency management activities, considerations, and challenges brought out by the SAFRR tsunami scenario? (Real emergencies) How do these activities, considerations, and challenges play out as the tsunami event unfolds across the “life” of the event? (Lessons)

California↗

USGS2010

Channel change and bed-material transport in the Lower Chetco River, Oregon

The lower Chetco River is a wandering gravel-bed river flanked by abundant and large gravel bars formed of coarse bed-material sediment. Since the early twentieth century, the large gravel bars have been a source of commercial aggregate for which ongoing permitting and aquatic habitat concerns have motivated this assessment of historical channel change and sediment transport rates. Analysis of historical channel change and bed-material transport rates for the lower 18 kilometers shows that the upper reaches of the study area are primarily transport zones, with bar positions fixed by valley geometry and active bars mainly providing transient storage of bed material. Downstream reaches, especially near the confluence of the North Fork Chetco River, are zones of active sedimentation and channel migration. Multiple analyses, supported by direct measurements of bedload during winter 2008–09, indicate that since 1970 the mean annual flux of bed material into the study reach has been about 40,000–100,000 cubic meters per year. Downstream tributary input of bed-material sediment, probably averaging 5–30 percent of the influx coming into the study reach from upstream, is approximately balanced by bed-material attrition by abrasion. Probably little bed material leaves the lower river under natural conditions, with most net influx historically accumulating in wider and more dynamic reaches, especially near the North Fork Chetco River confluence, 8 kilometers upstream from the Pacific Ocean. The year-to-year flux, however, varies tremendously. Some years may have less than 3,000 cubic meters of bed material entering the study area; by contrast, some high-flow years, such as 1982 and 1997, likely have more than 150,000 cubic meters entering the reach. For comparison, the estimated annual volume of gravel extracted from the lower Chetco River for commercial aggregate during 2000–2008 has ranged from 32,000 to 90,000 cubic meters and averaged about 59,000 cubic meters per year. Mined volumes probably exceeded 140,000 cubic meters per year for several years in the late 1970s. Repeat surveys and map analyses indicate a reduction in bar area and sinuosity between 1939 and 2008, chiefly in the period 1965–95. Repeat topographic and bathymetric surveys show channel incision for substantial portions of the study reach, with local areas of bed lowering by as much as 2 meters. A specific gage analysis at the upstream end of the study reach indicates that incision and narrowing followed aggradation culminating in the late 1970s. These observations are all consistent with a reduction of sediment supply relative to transport capacity since channel surveys in the late 1970s, probably owing to a combination of (1) bed sediment removal and (2) transient river adjustments to large sediment volumes brought by floods such as those in 1964 and, to a lesser extent, 1996.

Oregon↗

USGS2010

High resolution near-bed observations in winter near Cape Hatteras, North Carolina

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Coastal and Marine Science Center in Woods Hole, Massachusetts, is leading an effort to understand the regional sediment dynamics along the coastline of North and South Carolina. As part of the Carolinas Coastal Change Processes Project, a geologic framework study in June of 2008 by the Woods Hole Coastal and Marine Science Center's Sea Floor Mapping Group focused on the seaward limit of Diamond Shoals and provided high resolution bathymetric data, surficial sediment characteristics, and subsurface geologic stratigraphy. These data also provided unprecedented guidance to identify deployment locations for tripods and moorings to investigate the processes that control sediment transport at Diamond Shoals. Equipment was deployed at three sites from early January, 2009 through early May, 2009: north and south of the shoals at 15 m depth, and at the tip at 24 m depth. Many strong storm systems were recorded during that time period. Mounted on the tripods were instruments to measure surface waves, pressure, current velocity, bottom turbulence, suspended-sediment profiles, and sea-floor sand-ripple bedforms. Many instruments were designed and programmed to sample in high resolution in time and space, as fast as 8 Hz hourly bursts and as small as 6 cm bin sizes in near bottom profiles. A second tripod at the north site also held a visual camera system and sonar imaging system which document seafloor bedforms. The region is known for its dynamics, and one of the tripods tipped over towards the end of the experiment. A preliminary look at the data suggests the region is characterized by high energy. Raw data from a burst recorded at the south site on Mar. 26 th show instantaneous flow speed at 150 cm/s at 0.5 m above the seabed. This paper reports preliminary highlights of the observations, based on raw data, and lessons learned from a deployment of large tripod systems in such a dynamic location.

North Carolina↗

USGS2014

Ocean-atmosphere forcing of centennial hydroclimatic variability in the Pacific Northwest

Reconstructing centennial timescale hydroclimate variability during the late Holocene is critically important for understanding large-scale patterns of drought and their relationship with climate dynamics. We present sediment oxygen isotope records spanning the last two millennia from 10 lakes, as well as climate model simulations, indicating that the Little Ice Age was dry relative to the Medieval Climate Anomaly in much of the Pacific Northwest of North America. This pattern is consistent with observed associations between the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Northern Annular Mode and drought as well as with proxy-based reconstructions of Pacific ocean-atmosphere variations over the past 1000 years. The large amplitude of centennial variability indicated by the lake data suggests that regional hydroclimate is characterized by longer-term shifts in ENSO-like dynamics, and that an improved understanding of the centennial timescale relationship between external forcing and drought conditions is necessary for projecting future hydroclimatic conditions in western North America.

Pacific Northwest↗

USGS2015

Precise interpolar phasing of abrupt climate change during the last ice age

The last glacial period exhibited abrupt Dansgaard–Oeschger climatic oscillations, evidence of which is preserved in a variety of Northern Hemisphere palaeoclimate archives 1 . Ice cores show that Antarctica cooled during the warm phases of the Greenland Dansgaard–Oeschger cycle and vice versa 2 , 3 , suggesting an interhemispheric redistribution of heat through a mechanism called the bipolar seesaw 4 , 5 , 6 . Variations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) strength are thought to have been important, but much uncertainty remains regarding the dynamics and trigger of these abrupt events 7 , 8 , 9 . Key information is contained in the relative phasing of hemispheric climate variations, yet the large, poorly constrained difference between gas age and ice age and the relatively low resolution of methane records from Antarctic ice cores have so far precluded methane-based synchronization at the required sub-centennial precision 2 , 3 , 10 . Here we use a recently drilled high-accumulation Antarctic ice core to show that, on average, abrupt Greenland warming leads the corresponding Antarctic cooling onset by 218 ± 92 years (2 σ ) for Dansgaard–Oeschger events, including the Bølling event; Greenland cooling leads the corresponding onset of Antarctic warming by 208 ± 96 years. Our results demonstrate a north-to-south directionality of the abrupt climatic signal, which is propagated to the Southern Hemisphere high latitudes by oceanic rather than atmospheric processes. The similar interpolar phasing of warming and cooling transitions suggests that the transfer time of the climatic signal is independent of the AMOC background state. Our findings confirm a central role for ocean circulation in the bipolar seesaw and provide clear criteria for assessing hypotheses and model simulations of Dansgaard–Oeschger dynamics.

Nature↗

USGS2011

Mountain Glaciers and Ice Caps

In addition to the Greenland Ice Sheet, the Arctic contains a diverse array of smaller glaciers ranging from small cirque glaciers to large ice caps with areas up to 20 000 km 2 . Together, these glaciers cover an area of more than 400 000 km 2 , over half the global area of mountain glaciers and ice caps. Their total volume is sufficient to raise global sea level by an average of about 0.41 m if they were to melt completely. These glaciers exist in a range of different climatic regimes, from the maritime environments of southern Alaska, Iceland, western Scandinavia, and Svalbard, to the polar desert of the Canadian Arctic. Glaciers in all regions of the Arctic have decreased in area and mass as a result of the warming that has occurred since the 1920s (in two pulses – from the 1920s to the 1940s and since the mid-1980s). A new phase of accelerated mass loss began in the mid-1990s, and has been most marked in Alaska, the Canadian Arctic, and probably Greenland. Current rates of mass loss are estimated to be in the range 150 to 300 Gt/y; comparable to current mass loss rates from the Greenland Ice Sheet. This implies that the Arctic is now the largest regional source of glacier contributions to global sea-level rise. Most of the current mass loss is probably attributable to a change in surface mass balance (the balance between annual mass addition, primarily by snowfall, and annual mass loss by surface melting and meltwater runoff). Iceberg calving is also a significant source of mass loss in areas such as coastal Alaska, Arctic Canada, Svalbard, and the Russian Arctic. However, neither the current rate of calving loss nor its temporal variability have been well quantified in many regions, so this is a significant source of uncertainty in estimates of the total rate of mass loss. It is, however, clear that the larger Arctic ice caps have similar variability in ice dynamics to that of the Greenland Ice Sheet. That is to say, areas of relatively slow glacier flow (which terminate mainly on land) are separated by faster-flowing outlet glaciers (which terminate mainly in the ocean). Several of these outlet glaciers exhibit surge-type behavior, while others have exhibited substantial velocity changes on seasonal and longer timescales. It is very likely that these changes in ice dynamics affect the rate of mass loss by calving both from individual glaciers and the total ice cover. Projections of future rates of mass loss from mountain glaciers and ice caps in the Arctic focus primarily on projections of changes in the surface mass balance. Current models are not yet capable of making realistic forecasts of changes in losses by calving. Surface mass balance models are forced with downscaled output from climate models driven by forcing scenarios that make assumptions about the future rate of growth of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. Thus, mass loss projections vary considerably, depending on the forcing scenario used and the climate model from which climate projections are derived. A new study in which a surface mass balance model is driven by output from ten general circulation models (GCMs) forced by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) A1B emissions scenario yields estimates of total mass loss of between 51 and 136 mm sea-level equivalent (SLE) (or 13% to 36% of current glacier volume) by 2100. This implies that there will still be substantial glacier mass in the Arctic in 2100 and that Arctic mountain glaciers and ice caps will continue to influence global sea-level change well into the 22nd century.

Book chapter↗

USGS2019

Using the stream salmonid simulator (S3) to assess juvenile Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) production under historical and proposed action flows in the Klamath River, California

Executive Summary The production of Klamath River fall Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) in northern California and southern Oregon is thought to be limited by poor survival during freshwater juvenile life stages, in part a result of Ceratonova shasta —a highly infectious disease that can lead to high fish mortality. Higher flushing river flows are thought to affect the concentration of C. shasta spores, and in turn, juvenile salmon infection and mortality. The Stream Salmonid Simulator (S3) model was built to simulate the spatiotemporal dynamics of the growth, movement, and survival of juvenile salmon from spawning through migration to the Pacific Ocean in response to river flow, habitat availability, water temperature, and C. shasta spore concentrations. The S3 model has been calibrated to juvenile fall Chinook salmon abundances at a trap site within the Klamath River, and was specifically designed to provide objective predictions of juvenile salmon abundance and survival in relation to proposed flow management alternatives and resulting fish infection and mortality by C. shasta . Infection by C. shasta in the Klamath River is location specific, occurring in a “disease zone” with high spore concentrations. The spatial extent of this disease zone (from river kilometer 289.6 to 212.9) has been incorporated in the S3 model for the Klamath River, enabling the assessment of disease effects on fish at specific spatial locations such as the trap sampling sites, and for fish that were or were not exposed to the disease zone as they emigrate the Klamath River to the Pacific Ocean. Given the information gained from field observations on spore concentrations in relation to river flow, deliberations by resource managers resulted in the incorporation of springtime flushing flows in a Proposed Action (PA) scenario developed in part to lower spore concentrations within the disease zone. A Historical (HI) scenario based on the observed flows, temperatures, and spore concentrations from 2004 to 2016 was used to compare and contrast the potential benefits to juvenile salmon from PA flows in relation to the HI conditions.

California↗

USGS2022

Extending the Stream Salmonid Simulator to accommodate the life history of coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) in the Klamath River Basin, Northern California

In this report, we apply the stream salmonid simulator (S3) to coho salmon ( Oncorhynchus kisutch ) in the Klamath River Basin by extending the original model to account for life history and disease dynamics specific to coho salmon. This version of S3 includes tracking of three separate life-history strategies representing the different time periods and ages at which fish leave natal tributaries such as the Scott and Shasta Rivers (age-0 spring, age-0 fall, or age-1 smolt). Once fish leave their natal tributaries and enter the Klamath River, the deterministic life-stage-structured population model simulates daily growth, movement, and survival. We extend the model to include non-natal tributary dynamics, where spring age-0 fish entry to non-natal tributaries is simulated based on environmental conditions in the main-stem Klamath River. Fish that use non-natal tributaries then reenter the Klamath River during the winter or spring as smolts and actively migrate downstream. We also consider the life history strategy where fish rear in natal tributaries and enter the Klamath River as age-1 smolts. In addition to simulating different life history pathways that coho salmon may take, we model disease dynamics, incorporating new information on Ceratonova shasta related infection and mortality. We incorporate competitive interactions between juvenile coho and Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) by simulating density-dependent movement dynamics in response to Chinook salmon abundance. Model simulations suggest that total abundance and survival to the ocean differed between life-history strategies. In general, spring age-0 fish that leave their natal tributaries in their first spring had lower survival compared with fish that remained in natal tributaries and out-migrated later. Spring age-0 fish also had higher disease related mortality, owing to their residence in the main-stem Klamath River overlapping with periods of elevated C. shasta spore concentrations. Age-0 fish leaving their natal tributaries in the fall had near-zero disease related mortality. Most non-natal tributary use occurred at upstream tributary locations and was variable between the brood years depending on passage timing and environmental conditions. The inclusion of Chinook salmon in simulations resulted in decreased abundance and survival of Coho salmon reaching the ocean. In addition, we developed an R package to facilitate use of and continued development of S3 as a tool to guide management of juvenile salmonid populations.

California↗

USGS2007

Morphological evolution in the San Francisco Bight

San Francisco Bight, located near the coast of San Francisco, USA, is an extremely dynamic tidal inlet environmental subject to large waves and strong currents. Wave heights coming from the Pacific Ocean commonly exceed 5 m during winter storms. During peak flow tidal currents approach 3 m/s at the Golden Gate, a 1 km wide entrance that connects San Francisco Bay to the Pacific Ocean. Flow structure in this region varies markedly spatially and temporally due to the complex interaction by wind, waves and tidal currents. A multibeam sonar survey was recently completed that mapped in high resolution, for the first time, the bottom morphology in the region of the ebb tidal delta. This data set includes a giant sand wave field covering an area of approximately 4 square kilometers. The new survey enables the calculation of seabed change that has occurred in the past 50 years, since the last comprehensive survey of the area was completed. This comparison indicates an average erosion of 60 centimeters which equates to a total volume change of approximately 9.3 x 10 7 m 3 . Morphologic change also indicates that flood channels have filled and that the entire ebb delta is contracting radially.

California↗

USGS2016

High-latitude dust in the Earth system

Natural dust is often associated with hot, subtropical deserts, but significant dust events have been reported from cold, high latitudes. This review synthesizes current understanding of high-latitude (≥50°N and ≥40°S) dust source geography and dynamics and provides a prospectus for future research on the topic. Although the fundamental processes controlling aeolian dust emissions in high latitudes are essentially the same as in temperate regions, there are additional processes specific to or enhanced in cold regions. These include low temperatures, humidity, strong winds, permafrost and niveo-aeolian processes all of which can affect the efficiency of dust emission and distribution of sediments. Dust deposition at high latitudes can provide nutrients to the marine system, specifically by contributing iron to high-nutrient, low-chlorophyll oceans; it also affects ice albedo and melt rates. There have been no attempts to quantify systematically the expanse, characteristics, or dynamics of high-latitude dust sources. To address this, we identify and compare the main sources and drivers of dust emissions in the Northern (Alaska, Canada, Greenland, and Iceland) and Southern (Antarctica, New Zealand, and Patagonia) Hemispheres. The scarcity of year-round observations and limitations of satellite remote sensing data at high latitudes are discussed. It is estimated that under contemporary conditions high-latitude sources cover >500,000 km2 and contribute at least 80–100 Tg yr−1 of dust to the Earth system (~5% of the global dust budget); both are projected to increase under future climate change scenarios.

Reviews of Geophysics↗

USGS2025

Declining marine survival of steelhead trout linked to climate and ecosystem change

Species with complex life cycles, such as anadromous fish that perform spawning migrations between freshwater and the ocean, may be particularly sensitive to global change because freshwater and marine habitats experience distinct shifts in climate and ecosystem dynamics. Abundances of wild steelhead trout ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ) have declined across most of their range over the past 40–50 years. We examined whether declines in steelhead survival can be linked to changing climate conditions and species interactions. A novel hierarchical integrated population model that accounts for the species' complex life history was fitted to data from multiple wild steelhead populations on the Washington coast, U.S.A. The model estimates recruitment residuals and kelt survival rates as time-varying processes, which reflect annual variation in survival before and after first maturation. We found that survival rates of immature steelhead (recruits) and adult steelhead (kelts) have declined over time and that survival trends across populations were strongly associated with climate and ecosystem change, specifically summer sea surface temperature and pink salmon abundance in the North Pacific Ocean, the NPGO index and river flows. Including these drivers in the model reduced unexplained annual variation in shared recruitment and kelt survival anomalies and largely accounted for their negative long-term trends. Our findings provide evidence that rising temperatures and increased interspecific competition at sea have contributed to declines in steelhead survival over the last five decades. Considering projected warming and high pink salmon abundances in the ocean, steelhead will likely continue to experience low marine survival rates.

Washington↗

USGS2007

Dynamic triggering

A growing body of evidence demonstrates that dynamic stresses propagating as seismic waves from large earthquakes are capable of triggering additional earthquakes ranging from aftershocks in the near-field (within one or two source dimensions of the mainshock epicenter) to remotely triggered earthquakes at distances exceeding 10 000 km. Most of the triggered earthquakes are small (generally M ≤ 3) except within the near field, where dynamic stresses may trigger slip on subadjacent fault segments leading to complex rupture comprising of several large earthquakes of comparable magnitude. Crustal surface waves with periods of 15–30 s and peak dynamic stresses greater than ∼0.01 MPa seem to be most efficient in triggering remote seismicity. Current models for dynamic triggering fall under two broad groups: one appealing to Coulomb failure with various friction laws, and the other appealing to the activation of crustal fluids either hydrous or magmatic. No single model appears capable of accounting for the wide variation observed in the nature of triggered activity. Spatial sampling of dynamic triggering on a global scale is still woefully inadequate because of the limited distribution of adequate seismic networks. From the limited data currently available, it appears that extensional stress regimes hosting geothermal and volcanic activity are more susceptible to remote dynamic triggering than compressional stress regimes, although remote triggering is not limited to extensional regimes. Instances of remote triggering in the few areas with continuous, high-resolution deformation instrumentation (all volcanic or geothermal areas) include distinctive deformation transients, suggesting that the locally triggered seismicity in these areas may be a secondary response to a more fundamental aseismic process that likely involves some form of fluid transport or phase change. Recent evidence for triggering by solid Earth tides and ocean loading in convergent plate margins provides a low-frequency, low-amplitude reference point for the spectrum of stresses capable of dynamic triggering. Remaining challenges include establishing better sampling of the distribution of triggered seismicity and better constraints on physical models for the triggering process.

Book chapter↗

USGS2021

Retreat and regrowth of the Greenland Ice Sheet during the Last Interglacial as simulated by the CESM2-CISM2 coupled climate–ice sheet model

During the Last Interglacial, approximately 129 to 116 ka (thousand years ago), the Arctic summer climate was warmer than the present, and the Greenland Ice Sheet retreated to a smaller extent than its current state. Previous model-derived and geological reconstruction estimates of the sea-level contribution of the Greenland Ice Sheet during the Last Interglacial vary widely. Here, we conduct a transient climate simulation from 127 to 119 ka using the Community Earth System Model (CESM2), which includes a dynamic ice sheet component (the Community Ice Sheet Model, CISM2) that is interactively coupled to the atmosphere, land, ocean, and sea ice components. Vegetation distribution is updated every 500 years based on biomes simulated using a monthly climatology to force the BIOME4 equilibrium vegetation model. Results show a substantial retreat of the Greenland Ice Sheet, reaching a minimum extent at 121.9 ka, equivalent to a 3.0 m rise in sea level relative to the present day, followed by gradual regrowth. In contrast, a companion simulation employing static vegetation based on pre-industrial conditions shows a much smaller ice-sheet retreat, highlighting the importance of the changes in high-latitude vegetation distribution for amplifying the ice-sheet response.

Greenland Ice Sheet↗