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The state of human dimensions capacity for natural resource management: needs, knowledge, and resources

The social sciences have become increasingly important in understanding natural resource management contexts and audiences, and are essential in design and delivery of effective and durable management strategies. Yet many agencies and organizations do not have the necessary resource management. We draw on the textbook definition of HD: how and why people value natural resources, what benefits people seek and derive from those resources, and how people affect and are affected by those resources and their management (Decker, Brown, and Seimer 2001). Clearly articulating how HD information can be used and integrated into natural resource management planning and decision-making is an important challenge faced by the HD field. To address this challenge, we formed a collaborative team to explore the issue of HD capacity-building for natural resource organizations and to advance the HD field. We define HD capacity as activities, efforts, and resources that enhance the ability of HD researchers and practitioners and natural managers and decision-makers to understand and address the social aspects of conservation. Specifically, we sought to examine current barriers to integration of HD into natural resource management, knowledge needed to improve HD capacity, and existing HD tools, resources, and training opportunities. We conducted a needs assessment of HD experts and practitioners, developed a framework for considering HD activities that can contribute both directly and indirectly throughout any phase of an adaptive management cycle, and held a workshop to review preliminary findings and gather additional input through breakout group discussions. This paper provides highlights from our collaborative initiative to help frame and inform future HD capacity-building efforts and natural resource organizations and also provides a list of existing human dimensions tools and resources.

The George Wright Forum↗

The U.S. Geological Survey Ecosystem Science Strategy, 2012-2022 - Advancing discovery and application through collaboration

Ecosystem science is critical to making informed decisions about natural resources that can sustain our Nation’s economic and environmental well-being. Resource managers and policy-makers are faced with countless decisions each year at local, state, tribal, territorial, and national levels on issues as diverse as renewable and non-renewable energy development, agriculture, forestry, water supply, and resource allocations at the urban-rural interface. The urgency for sound decision-making is increasing dramatically as the world is being transformed at an unprecedented pace and in uncertain directions. Environmental changes are associated with natural hazards, greenhouse gas emissions, and increasing demands for water, land, food, energy, mineral, and living resources. At risk is the Nation’s environmental capital, the goods and services provided by resilient ecosystems that are vital to the health and well-being of human societies. Ecosystem science—the study of systems of organisms interacting with their environment and the consequences of natural and human-induced change on these systems—is necessary to inform decision-makers as they develop policies to adapt to these changes. This Ecosystems Science Strategy is built on a framework that includes basic and applied science. It highlights the critical roles that USGS scientists and partners can play in building scientific understanding and providing timely information to decision-makers. The strategy underscores the connection between scientific discoveries and the application of new knowledge. The strategy integrates ecosystem science and decision-making, producing new scientific outcomes to assist resource managers and providing public benefits. The USGS is uniquely positioned to play an important role in ecosystem science. With its wide range of expertise, the agency can bring holistic, cross-scale, interdisciplinary capabilities to the design and conduct of monitoring, research, and modeling and to new technologies for data collection, management, and visualization. Collectively, these capabilities can be used to reveal ecological patterns and processes, explain how and why ecosystems change, and forecast change over different spatial and temporal scales. USGS science can provide managers with options and decision-support tools to use resources sustainably. The USGS has long-standing, collaborative relationships with the DOI and other partners in the natural sciences, in both conducting science and its application. The USGS engages these partners in cooperative investigations that otherwise would lack the necessary support or be too expensive for a single bureau to conduct. The heart of this strategy is a framework and vision for USGS ecosystems science that focuses on five long-term goals, which are seen as interconnected and reinforcing components: • Improve understanding of ecosystem structure, function, and processes. The focus for this goal is an understanding of how ecosystems work, including the dynamics of species, their populations, interactions, and genetics, and how they change across spatial and temporal scales. • Advance understanding of how drivers influence ecosystem change. The challenges here are explaining the drivers of ecosystem change, their spatio-temporal patterns, their uncertainties and interactions, and their influence on ecosystem processes and dynamics. • Improve understanding of the services that ecosystems provide to society. Here the emphasis is on the measurement of environmental capital and ecosystem services, and the identification of sources and patterns of change in space and time. • Develop tools, technologies, and capacities to inform decision-making about ecosystems. This includes developing new technologies and approaches for conducting applications-oriented ecosystem science. A principal challenge will be how to quantify uncertainty and incorporate it in decision analysis. • Apply science to enhance strategies for management, conservation, and restoration of ecosystems. These challenges include development of novel approaches to monitoring, assessment, and restoration of ecosystems; new methods to address species of concern and communities at risk; and innovations in decision analysis and support to address imminent ecosystem changes or those that are underway. Closely integrated with the five goals are four strategic approaches that provide the path forward for the USGS Ecosystems Mission Area. These approaches cross-cut all of the goals and are seen as essential to the implementation of this strategy: • Assess information needs for ecosystem science through enhanced partnerships. Work with the DOI and other agencies and institutions to identify, design, and implement priority decision-driven ecological research. • Promote the use of interdisciplinary ecosystem science. Design and conduct interdisciplinary process-oriented research in ecosystem science. • Enhance modeling and forecasting. Build models to forecast ecosystem change, assess future management scenarios, and reduce uncertainties through an adaptive learning process. • Support decision-making. Use quantitative approaches to assess the vulnerabilities of ecosystems, habitats, and species, and evaluate strategies for adaptation, restoration, and sustainable management. Following the strategic approaches are a set of proposed actions that represent a sampling of specific activities that align with this strategy and that address the Nation’s most pressing environmental needs. The strategy emphasizes coordination of activities across the USGS mission areas pursuant to these goals. Ecosystem science is inherently interdisciplinary and requires a broad perspective that incorporates the biological and physical sciences, climate science, information technology, and scientific capacity in mission areas across the Bureau. With its emphasis on coordination, this strategy can provide a critical underpinning for integrated science efforts with scientists from multiple mission areas of the USGS working together. Of course, the USGS will continue to conduct both discipline-specific and interdisciplinary investigations, and both will continue to be vital parts of the ecosystem science portfolio. Finally, the strategy stresses the importance of coordination with other Federal agencies and organizations in the natural resources community. The USGS collaborates with resource agencies in the DOI and other organizations throughout the world to meet societal needs for species and ecosystem management. Working with these agencies and organizations, the USGS will play a key role over the next decade in advancing the scientific foundation for sustaining the natural resources that diverse, productive, resilient ecosystems provide.

Open-File Report↗

Engaging with stakeholders to produce actionable science: A framework and guidance

Natural and cultural resource managers are increasingly working with the scientific community to create information on how best to adapt to the current and projected impacts of climate change. Engaging with these managers is a strategy that researchers can use to ensure that scientific outputs and findings are actionable (or useful and usable). In this article, the authors adapt Davidson’s wheel of participation to characterize and describe common stakeholder engagement strategies across the spectrum of Inform, Consult, Participate, and Empower. This adapted framework provides researchers with a standardized vocabulary for describing their engagement approach, guidance on how to select an approach, methods for implementing engagement, and potential barriers to overcome. While there is often no one “best” approach to engaging with stakeholders, researchers can use the objectives of their project and the decision context in which their stakeholders operate to guide their selection. Researchers can also revisit this framework over time as their project objectives shift and their stakeholder relationships evolve.

Weather Climate and Society↗

Ecological forecasting—21st century science for 21st century management

Natural resource managers are coping with rapid changes in both environmental conditions and ecosystems. Enabled by recent advances in data collection and assimilation, short-term ecological forecasting may be a powerful tool to help resource managers anticipate impending near-term changes in ecosystem conditions or dynamics. Managers may use the information in forecasts to minimize the adverse effects of ecological stressors and optimize the effectiveness of management actions. To explore the potential for ecological forecasting to enhance natural resource management, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) convened a workshop titled "Building Capacity for Applied Short-Term Ecological Forecasting" on May 29—31, 2019, with participants from several Federal agencies, including the Bureau of Land Management, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, the National Park Service, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration as well as all mission areas within the USGS. Participants broadly agreed that short-term ecological forecasting—on the order of days to years into the future—has tremendous potential to improve the quality and timeliness of information available to guide resource management decisions. Participants considered how ecological forecasting could directly affect their agency missions and specified numerous critical tools for addressing natural resource management concerns in the 21st century that could be enhanced by ecological forecasting. Given this breadth of possible applications for forecast products, participants developed a repeatable framework for evaluating potential value of a forecast product for enhancing resource management. Applying that process to a large list of forecast ideas that were developed in a brainstorming session, participants identified a small set of promising forecast products that illustrate the value of ecological forecasting for informing resource management. Workshop outcomes also include insights about important likely obstacles and next steps. In particular, reliable production and delivery of operational ecological forecasts will require a sustained commitment by research agencies, in partnership with resource management agencies, to maintain and improve forecasting tools and capabilities.

Open-File Report↗

Practical tips to establish an actionable science portfolio for climate adaptation

The delivery of climate adaptation science products and services to inform resource management decisions—otherwise known as actionable climate adaptation science—is the primary driver and intended outcome of the science portfolios administered within the Department of the Interior's Climate Adaptation Science Center (CASC) network in the USA. This commitment hinges on the essential requirement that natural and cultural resource managers (science users) and scientists (science producers) work in unison with one another. This partnership may be illustrated by the conventional demand and supply relationship, where resource managers create the demand term by explicitly describing a priori top decisions or priority actions concerning the natural or cultural resources they administer, and scientists supply relevant research products and services. But an ideal interaction of users and producers is not trivial and presents challenges in the process of establishing an actionable science portfolio. A few practical suggestions are presented here to set up a productive dialogue between resource managers and scientists, and broker that conversation as they work side-by-side toward agreed-upon common objectives. These useful tips stem from working towards the goal of establishing actionable science portfolios within the CASC network and may prove valuable to similar entities committed to delivering climate adaptation science to address resource management concerns.

Science and Public Policy↗

Serious games experiment toward agent-based simulation

We evaluate the potential for serious games to be used as a scientifically based decision-support product that supports the United States Geological Survey’s (USGS) mission--to provide integrated, unbiased scientific information that can make a substantial contribution to societal well-being for a wide variety of complex environmental challenges. Serious or pedagogical games are an engaging way to educate decisionmakers and stakeholders about environmental challenges that are usefully informed by natural and social scientific information and knowledge and can be designed to promote interactive learning and exploration in the face of large uncertainties, divergent values, and complex situations. We developed two serious games that use challenging environmental-planning issues to demonstrate and investigate the potential contributions of serious games to inform regional-planning decisions. Delta Skelta is a game emulating long-term integrated environmental planning in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, California, that incorporates natural hazards (flooding and earthquakes) and consequences for California water supplies amidst conflicting water interests. Age of Ecology is a game that simulates interactions between economic and ecologic processes, as well as natural hazards while implementing agent-based modeling. The content of these games spans the USGS science mission areas related to water, ecosystems, natural hazards, land use, and climate change. We describe the games, reflect on design and informational aspects, and comment on their potential usefulness. During the process of developing these games, we identified various design trade-offs involving factual information, strategic thinking, game-winning criteria, elements of fun, number and type of players, time horizon, and uncertainty. We evaluate the two games in terms of accomplishments and limitations. Overall, we demonstrated the potential for these games to usefully represent scientific information within challenging environmental and ecosystem-management contexts and to provide an interactive way of learning about the complexity of interactions between people and natural systems. Further progress on the use of pedagogical games to fulfill the USGS mission will require collaboration among scientists, game developers, educators, and stakeholders. We conclude that as the USGS positions itself to communicate and convey the results of multiple science strategies, including natural-resource security and sustainability, pedagogical game development and agent-based modeling offer a means to (1) establish interdisciplinary and collaborative teams with a focused integrated outcome; (2) contribute to the modeling of interaction, feedback, and adaptation of ecosystems; and (3) enable social learning through a broadly appealing and increasingly sophisticated medium.

Open-File Report↗

Integrating climate change considerations into natural resource planning—An implementation guide

Executive Summary Climate change vulnerability assessments and associated adaptation strategies and actions connect existing climate science with possible effects on natural resources and highlight potential responses. However, these assessments, which are commonly generated for large regional areas, suggest management options in general terms without guidance for choosing among strategies and actions under specific circumstances. Meanwhile, land and resource management plans1 often address smaller geographies, and management actions must address specific rather than general situations. Thus, there is a need for tools that enable managers to bridge the gap by downscaling assessments, plans, and data generated at regional scales to identify adaptation actions and strategies appropriate for smaller management units and project-level planning. To address this need, we have developed a tool–the Climate Adaptation Integration Tool (CAIT)–that helps resource managers use climate science and assessments, along with local knowledge, to identify those adaptation strategies and actions most appropriate for a given site or situation. Specifically, we provide: Guidance for acquiring and using downscaled climate change projections; Procedures for using these data to answer Critical Questions to make site-specific determinations of the appropriate management approach (specifically, resistance, resilience, transition, realignment, or no action); Lists of potential adaptation strategies and actions appropriate to the chosen management approach; and Supplemental information regarding adaptation strategies and actions to help managers choose among them. The CAIT is meant to help managers integrate climate change science and assessments into management decisions. The CAIT also serves as a way for managers to document how they have incorporated climate change information into their decision-making and why certain actions were selected over others. A particular strength of the CAIT is that it leads to potential solutions (that is, adaptation strategies and actions) without inflexibly prescribing actions. This flexibility enables managers to incorporate other factors and constraints to create workable management plans and projects that strengthen their ability to achieve long-term conservation goals.

Techniques and Methods↗

USGS science in Menlo Park -- a science strategy for the U.S. Geological Survey Menlo Park Science Center, 2005-2015

In the spring of 2004, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Menlo Park Center Council commissioned an interdisciplinary working group to develop a forward-looking science strategy for the USGS Menlo Park Science Center in California (hereafter also referred to as "the Center"). The Center has been the flagship research center for the USGS in the western United States for more than 50 years, and the Council recognizes that science priorities must be the primary consideration guiding critical decisions made about the future evolution of the Center. In developing this strategy, the working group consulted widely within the USGS and with external clients and collaborators, so that most stakeholders had an opportunity to influence the science goals and operational objectives. The Science Goals are to: Natural Hazards: Conduct natural-hazard research and assessments critical to effective mitigation planning, short-term forecasting, and event response. Ecosystem Change: Develop a predictive understanding of ecosystem change that advances ecosystem restoration and adaptive management. Natural Resources: Advance the understanding of natural resources in a geologic, hydrologic, economic, environmental, and global context. Modeling Earth System Processes: Increase and improve capabilities for quantitative simulation, prediction, and assessment of Earth system processes. The strategy presents seven key Operational Objectives with specific actions to achieve the scientific goals. These Operational Objectives are to: Provide a hub for technology, laboratories, and library services to support science in the Western Region. Increase advanced computing capabilities and promote sharing of these resources. Enhance the intellectual diversity, vibrancy, and capacity of the work force through improved recruitment and retention. Strengthen client and collaborative relationships in the community at an institutional level. Expand monitoring capability by increasing density, sensitivity, and efficiency and reducing costs of instruments and networks. Encourage a breadth of scientific capabilities in Menlo Park to foster interdisciplinary science. Communicate USGS science to a diverse audience.

Circular↗

U.S. Geological Survey 21st-Century science strategy 2020–2030

Today’s Earth system challenges are far more complex and urgent than those that existed in 1879 when the USGS was established. Society’s greatest challenges are directly or indirectly linked to major areas of USGS science. Increased pressures on natural resources continue with consequences for national security, food and water availability, natural disasters, human health, and biodiversity loss. As we look forward 10, 20, and 30 years, our mission will be more important than ever before. A broad but coherent view is required for stewardship of the Nation’s land, water, mineral, energy, and ecosystem resources, which involves complex tradeoffs among multiple, often competing objectives. Increasingly, resource managers and decision makers need “the whole USGS”: integrated multidisciplinary Earth and biological science data, geospatial tools, predictive models, decision-support tools, and the expertise to interpret them. This Science Strategy defines a vision and mission for how we will continue to evolve USGS Science to address these Earth system challenges.

Circular↗

Fort Collins Science Center: Ecosystem Dynamics

Many challenging natural resource management issues require consideration of a web of interactions among ecosystem components. The spatial and temporal complexity of these ecosystem problems demands an interdisciplinary approach integrating biotic and abiotic processes. The goals of the Ecosystem Dynamics Branch are to provide sound science to aid federal resource managers and use long-term, place-focused research and monitoring on federal lands to advance ecosystem science. Current studies fall into five general areas. Herbivore-Ecosystem Interactions examines the efficacy of multiple controls on selected herbivore populations and cascading effects through predator-herbivore-plant-soil linkages. Riparian Ecology is concerned with interactions among streamflow, fluvial geomorphology, and riparian vegetation. Integrated Fire Science focuses on the effects of fire on plant and animal communities at multiple scales, and on the interactions between post-fire plant, runoff, and erosion processes. Reference Ecosystems comprises long-term, place-based studies of ecosystem biogeochemistry. Finally, Integrated Assessments is investigating how to synthesize multiple ecosystem stressors and responses over complex landscapes in ways that are useful for management and planning.

Fact Sheet↗

Katmai National Park and Preserve and Alagnak Wild River: Geologic resources inventory report

The Geologic Resources Inventory (GRI) is one of 12 inventories funded by the National Park Service (NPS) Inventory and Monitoring Program. The Geologic Resources Division of the NPS Natural Resource Stewardship and Science Directorate administers the GRI. This GRI report was written for resource managers to support science-informed decision making. It may also be useful for interpretation. The report was prepared using available geologic information. Chapters of the report discuss distinctive geologic features and processes, describe the geologic history leading to the present- day landscape, highlight geologic issues facing resource managers, and provide information about the associated GRI geologic map data. A poster (Plate 1, in pocket) illustrates these data.

Alaska↗

Self-determination theory as an alternate conceptual foundation for motivation in natural resource research

Motivation is a topic that receives substantial interest across the social sciences. However, in the human dimensions of natural resource literature, scholars have primarily treated motivation as a construct narrowly defined by the individual’s desired goal state. In contrast, self-determination theory (SDT) suggests that multiple forms of motivation can influence levels of self-determination, integration of identities, and subsequent behavioral intentions, and has been utilized in multiple realms to understand human behavior. SDT forms a consistent and well-understood mechanism for human psychological development and optimal function and allows for the formulation of out-of-sample prediction, a cornerstone of science. In this manuscript, we review the basic theories that make up SDT and provide insight for its application to human dimensions of natural resource research.

Human Dimensions of Wildlife: An International Jou↗

Using public litigation records to identify priority science needs for managing public lands

Relevant science is essential for effective natural resource decision making, including on public lands managed by the United States Department of the Interior (DOI) Bureau of Land Management (BLM), that cover 1/10th of the United States. Most of the BLM’s management decisions require analyses under the National Environmental Policy Act, and the use of science in these decisions is often challenged. Using coproduction, we assembled an interagency team of scientists and resource managers to develop a method for using public litigation to identify priority science needs for the BLM. We searched publicly available case documents finalized from 2015–2019 in Wyoming, Colorado, Utah, and New Mexico within federal courts and the DOI Office of Hearings and Appeals, and identified 108 case documents that involved challenges to the BLM’s use of science. We retained 48 case documents that contained at least one challenge about the BLM’s use of science for a specific resource. We categorized all challenges in each case document according to the proposed action, affected resource, type of science challenged (data about resources, science relevant to potential impacts, methods for analyzing potential impacts, and mitigation actions), and specific nature of the challenge (e.g., challenging direct effects analysis). We identified priority science needs based on the frequency of challenges, the number of states where similar challenges occurred, whether the BLM lost the challenge, and whether the case was remanded. Top needs related to oil and gas development actions and included science about effects on air quality and climate, water, and socioeconomics; data for air quality and climate; and methods for analyzing potential impacts to cultural resources and air quality and climate. The BLM can use this information to prioritize actions (e.g., funding new research or science syntheses) to strengthen its science foundation for decision-making.

Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming↗

U.S. Geological Survey Rocky Mountain Region 2022 science exchange, showcasing interdisciplinary and state-of-the-art USGS science

Introduction The Rocky Mountains and the Colorado River Basin in the Western United States represent complex, interconnected systems that sustain a number of species, including tens of millions of humans. These systems face several challenges, including worsening drought, altered wildfire regimes, climate change, and the spread of invasive species. These factors can exacerbate one another, further contributing to habitat loss and affecting species of conservation concern. Characterizing and managing these challenges require interdisciplinary communities of scientists to develop information and decision-support tools that can inform holistic land and water management solutions. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Rocky Mountain Region 2022 Science Exchange focused on the use of interdisciplinary and state-of-the-art science being conducted by USGS scientists in the region to address these complex problems. The USGS Rocky Mountain Regional Office organized its first Science Exchange in 2017 to share scientific information between leaders and early career scientists throughout the region. Science Exchanges held in 2018 and 2020 focused on drought science relevant to the region and the Earth Monitoring, Analyses, and Prediction (EarthMAP) concept, which is designed to facilitate interdisciplinary, timely, and actionable science related to drought in the Colorado River Basin and other areas. Based on the emerging need for more holistic approaches to address increasingly complex natural resource issues that affect society, the Region hosted a virtual fourth Science Exchange for three days in April 2022. This event focused on barriers and bridges to interdisciplinary science and highlighted studies from the Region to inspire collaboration across disciplines. Presentations described recent and ongoing research that applied collaborative and state-of-the-art methods to address problems in the fields of geology, hydrology, ecology, and natural hazards. Science collaboration and outreach to all levels of stakeholders are vital elements needed for providing timely and actionable data, interpretations, analytical tools, and products. These presentations led to active online chats and panel discussions and showcased interdisciplinary science and advanced methods that may inform and lead to more effective, holistic management decisions as the Western United States adapts to ongoing and future changes.

Fact Sheet↗

Influences of wildfire and channel reorganization on spatial and temporal variation in stream temperature and the distribution of fish and amphibians

Wildfire can influence a variety of stream ecosystem properties. We studied stream temperatures in relation to wildfire in small streams in the Boise River Basin, located in central Idaho, USA. To examine the spatio-temporal aspects of temperature in relation to wildfire, we employed three approaches: a pre-post fire comparison of temperatures between two sites (one from a burned stream and one unburned) over 13 years, a short-term (3 year) pre-post fire comparison of a burned and unburned stream with spatially extensive data, and a short-term (1 year) comparative study of spatial variability in temperatures using a "space for time" substitutive design across 90 sites in nine streams (retrospective comparative study). The latter design included streams with a history of stand-replacing wildfire and streams with severe post-fire reorganization of channels due to debris flows and flooding. Results from these three studies indicated that summer maximum water temperatures can remain significantly elevated for at least a decade following wildfire, particularly in streams with severe channel reorganization. In the retrospective comparative study we investigated occurrence of native rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) and tailed frog larvae (Ascaphus montanus) in relation to maximum stream temperatures during summer. Both occurred in nearly every site sampled, but tailed frog larvae were found in much warmer water than previously reported in the field (26.6??C maximum summer temperature). Our results show that physical stream habitats can remain altered (for example, increased temperature) for many years following wildfire, but that native aquatic vertebrates can be resilient. In a management context, this suggests wildfire may be less of a threat to native species than human influences that alter the capacity of stream-living vertebrates to persist in the face of natural disturbance. ?? 2007 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.

Ecosystems↗

Influence of riffle and snag habitat specific sampling on stream macroinvertebrate assemblage measures in bioassessment

Stream macroinvertebrate communities vary naturally among types of habitats where they are sampled, which affects the results of environmental assessment. We analyzed macroinvertebrates collected from riffle and snag habitats to evaluate influences of habitat-specific sampling on taxon occurrence, assemblage measures, and biotic indices. We found considerably more macroinvertebrate taxa unique to snags (143 taxa) than to riffles (75 taxa), and the numbers of taxa found in both riffles and snags (149 taxa) were similar to that found in snags. About 64% of the 47 macroinvertebrate measures we tested differed significantly between riffles and snags. Eighty percent intercepts of regressions between biotic indices and urban or agricultural land uses differed significantly between riffles and snags. The Hilsenhoff biotic index calculated from snag samples explained 69% of the variance of riffle samples and classified 66% of the sites into the same stream health group as the riffle samples. However, four multimetric indices for snag samples explained less than 50% of the variance of riffle samples and classified less than 50% of the sites into the same health group as the riffle samples. We concluded that macroinvertebrate indices developed for riffle/run habitat should not be used for snag samples to assess stream impairment. We recommend developing an index of biotic integrity specifically for snags and using snags as an alternate sampling substrate for streams that naturally lack riffles. ?? Springer Science+Business Media, Inc. 2006.

Environmental Monitoring and Assessment↗

Evaluation of gas production potential from gas hydrate deposits in National Petroleum Reserve Alaska using numerical simulations

An evaluation of the gas production potential of Sunlight Peak gas hydrate accumulation in the eastern portion of the National Petroleum Reserve Alaska (NPRA) of Alaska North Slope (ANS) is conducted using numerical simulations, as part of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) gas hydrate Life Cycle Assessment program. A field scale reservoir model for Sunlight Peak is developed using Advanced Processes & Thermal Reservoir Simulator (STARS) that approximates the production design and response of this gas hydrate field. The reservoir characterization is based on available structural maps and the seismic-derived hydrate saturation map of the study region. A 3D reservoir model, with heterogeneous distribution of the reservoir properties (such as porosity, permeability and vertical hydrate saturation), is developed by correlating the data from the Mount Elbert well logs. Production simulations showed that the Sunlight Peak prospect has the potential of producing 1.53 × 10 9 ST m 3 of gas in 30 years by depressurization with a peak production rate of around 19.4 × 10 4 ST m 3 /day through a single horizontal well. To determine the effect of uncertainty in reservoir properties on the gas production, an uncertainty analysis is carried out. It is observed that for the range of data considered, the overall cumulative production from the Sunlight Peak will always be within the range of ±4.6% error from the overall mean value of 1.43 × 10 9 ST m 3 . A sensitivity analysis study showed that the proximity of the reservoir from the base of permafrost and the base of hydrate stability zone (BHSZ) has significant effect on gas production rates. The gas production rates decrease with the increase in the depth of the permafrost and the depth of BHSZ. From the overall analysis of the results it is concluded that Sunlight Peak gas hydrate accumulation behaves differently than other Class III reservoirs (Class III reservoirs are composed of a single layer of hydrate with no underlying zone of mobile fluids) due to its smaller thickness and high angle of dip.

Alaska↗

Probing the Earth's strength: Can we measure small stress at high pressure?

Simulating the conditions and processes that occur in the Earth's deep interior has been a major goal of experimental geophysics since the 1920s. In particular, pioneers such as P. W. Bridgman, David Griggs, Hugh Heard, Mervyn Paterson, William Brace, and their colleagues sought to establish the basic relations between differential stresses and rock and mineral deformation under pressure-temperature conditions that favor such inelastic processes as brittle fracture, frictional sliding, plastic deformation, and dynamic metamorphism. This work has been applied to diverse problems in the Earth sciences, including the physical nature of earth quake sources, the forces that drive and resist plate movement, deformation under partial-melting conditions at the tops of mantle plumes, the flexure of the lithosphere, post-glacial rebound, and the origin of the preferred orientation of minerals and the resultant seismic anisotropy and metamorphic textures.

Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union↗