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USGS2025

Reviews and syntheses: Variable inundation across Earth's terrestrial ecosystems

The structure, function, and dynamics of Earth's terrestrial ecosystems are profoundly influenced by how often (frequency) and how long (duration) they are inundated with water. A diverse array of natural and human-engineered systems experience temporally variable inundation whereby they fluctuate between inundated and non-inundated states. Variable inundation spans extreme events to predictable sub-daily cycles. Variably inundated ecosystems (VIEs) include hillslopes, non-perennial streams, wetlands, floodplains, temporary ponds, tidal systems, storm-impacted coastal zones, and human-engineered systems. VIEs are diverse in terms of inundation regimes, water chemistry and flow velocity, soil and sediment properties, vegetation, and many other properties. The spatial and temporal scales of variable inundation are vast, ranging from sub-meter to whole landscapes and from sub-hourly to multi-decadal. The broad range of system types and scales makes it challenging to predict the hydrology, biogeochemistry, ecology, and physical evolution of VIEs. Despite all experiencing the loss and gain of an overlying water column, VIEs are rarely considered together in conceptual, theoretical, modeling, or measurement frameworks and approaches. Studying VIEs together has the potential to generate mechanistic understanding that is transferable across a much broader range of environmental conditions, relative to knowledge generated by studying any one VIE type. We postulate that enhanced transferability will be important for predicting changes in VIE function in response to global change. Here we aim to catalyze cross-VIE science that studies drivers and impacts of variable inundation across Earth's VIEs. To this end, we complement expert mini-reviews of eight major VIE systems with overviews of VIE-relevant methods and challenges associated with scale. We conclude with perspectives on how cross-VIE science can derive transferable understanding via unifying conceptual models in which the impacts of variable inundation are studied across multi-dimensional environmental space.

Biogeosciences↗

USGS2024

Evolving wildlife management cultures of governance through Indigenous Knowledges and perspectives

Within governance agencies, academia, and communities alike, there are increasing calls to recognize the value and importance of culture within social-ecological systems and to better implement Indigenous sciences in research, policy, and management. Efforts thus far have raised questions about the best ethical practices to do so. Engaging with plural worldviews and perspectives on their own terms reflects cultural evolutionary processes driving paradigm shifts in 3 fundamental areas of natural resource management: conceptualizations of natural resources and ecosystems, processes of public participation and governance, and relationships with Indigenous Peoples and communities with differing worldviews. We broadly describe evolution toward these paradigm shifts in fish and wildlife management. We then use 3 case studies to illustrate the ongoing cultural evolution of relationships between wildlife management and Indigenous practices within specific historical and social-ecological contexts and reflect on common barriers to appropriately engaging with Indigenous paradigms and lifeways. Our case studies highlight 3 priorities that can assist the field of wildlife management in achieving the changes necessary to bridge incommensurable worldviews: acknowledging and reconciling historical legacies and their continued power dynamics as part of social-ecological systems, establishing governance arrangements that move beyond attempts to extract cultural information from communities to integrate Indigenous Knowledges into dominant management paradigms, and engaging in critical reflexivity and reciprocal, accountable relationship building. Implementing these changes will take time and a commitment to processes that may initially feel uncomfortable and unfamiliar but have potential to be transformative. Ethical and culturally appropriate methods to include plural and multivocal perspectives and worldviews on their own terms are needed to transform wildlife management to achieve more effective and just management outcomes for all.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS2014

Macroevolutionary consequences of profound climate change on niche evolution in marine molluscs over the past three million years

In order to predict the fate of biodiversity in a rapidly changing world, we must first understand how species adapt to new environmental conditions. The long-term evolutionary dynamics of species' physiological tolerances to differing climatic regimes remain obscure. Here, we unite palaeontological and neontological data to analyse whether species' environmental tolerances remain stable across 3 Myr of profound climatic changes using 10 phylogenetically, ecologically and developmentally diverse mollusc species from the Atlantic and Gulf Coastal Plains, USA. We additionally investigate whether these species' upper and lower thermal tolerances are constrained across this interval. We find that these species' environmental preferences are stable across the duration of their lifetimes, even when faced with significant environmental perturbations. The results suggest that species will respond to current and future warming either by altering distributions to track suitable habitat or, if the pace of change is too rapid, by going extinct. Our findings also support methods that project species' present-day environmental requirements to future climatic landscapes to assess conservation risks.

Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sci↗

USGS2018

A phylogenetic overview of the genus Vertigo O. F. Müller, 1773 (Gastropoda: Pulmonata: Pupillidae: Vertigininae)

We document global phylogenetic pattern in the pupillid land snail genus Vertigo by analyses of nDNA (ITS1 and ITS2) and mtDNA (CytB and 16S) sequence from 424 individuals representing 91 putative specific and subspecific Vertigo taxa. nDNA and mtDNA data were separately subjected to neighbor-joining, minimum evolution, maximum likelihood and Bayesian reconstruction methods, with conclusions being drawn from shared topological structures. Six highly supported, reciprocally monophyletic subgeneric level clades were identified: Vertigo , Alaea , Boreovertigo new subgenus, Isthmia , Staurodon and Vertilla . 88 species or subspecies were also confirmed, nine of which are new and formally described herein: V. beringiana , V. chiricahuensis , V. chytryi , V. genesioides , V. kodamai , V. kurilensis , V. lilljeborgi vinlandica , V. pimuensis and V. pisewensis . Thirteen taxa were synonymized: V. arthuri basidens , V. arthuri hubrichti , V. arthuri paradoxa (= V. arthuri ); V. allyniana (= V. modesta ); V. andrusiana (= V. columbiana ); V. conecuhensis (= V. alabamensis ); V. dedecora tamagonari (= V. dedecora ); V. elatior , V. idahoensis (= V. ventricosa ); V. eogea (= V. ovata ); V. modesta insculpta (= V. modesta concinnula ), V. modesta microphasma , V. modesta sculptilis (= V. modesta castanea ). Qualitative observations of conchological features, ecological preferences and geographic coverage were conducted for each subgenus and genetically supported species or subspecies-level taxon. These demonstrated that: (1) a suite of diagnostic shell features usually exists to demarcate each species-level taxon; (2) shell features were incapable of defining genetically validated subgenera; (3) all subgenera had transcontinental ranges; (4) ⅓ of all species possess continental or trans-continental ranges, with very few having range extents < 1,000 km; (5) all subgenera and fully ⅔ of global Vertigo species and subspecies are found in North America, more than 2.5 times the number found in central and eastern Asia, the second most diverse region. This is similar to several other molluscan groups, such as the polygyrid land snails and unionid bivalves for which North America is the global biodiversity hotspot.

Malacologia↗

USGS2015

Shaping species with ephemeral boundaries: The distribution and genetic structure of desert tortoise ( Gopherus morafkai ) in the Sonoran Desert region

Aim We examine the role biogeographical features played in the evolution of Morafka's desert tortoise ( Gopherus morafkai ) and test the hypothesis that G. morafkai maintains genetically distinct lineages associated with different Sonoran Desert biomes. Increased knowledge of the past and present distribution of the Sonoran Desert region's biota provides insight into the forces that drive and maintain its biodiversity. Location Sonoran Desert biogeographical region; Sonora and Sinaloa, Mexico and Arizona, USA. Methods We examined wild tortoises from Mexico ( n = 155) and Arizona ( n = 78), spanning their known distribution. We used mtDNA sequences to reconstruct matrilineal relationships and 25 microsatellite (STR) loci for Bayesian analyses of gene flow. We performed clinal analyses on both mtDNA and STR loci to determine the position and amount of introgression where lineages co-occur. We used GIS to assess the association of genetic structuring with ecological features. We used these data in a hypothesis-driven approach to assess different models of how genetic diversity is maintained and distributed in G. morafkai . Results Gopherus morafkai was found to comprise genetically and geographically distinct ‘Sonoran’ and ‘Sinaloan’ lineages. Both lineages occurred in a relatively narrow zone of overlap in Sinaloan thornscrub, where it transitions into Sonoran desertscrub. Limited introgression occurred at the contact zone. The best-fit model suggests that these lineages diverged in parapatry where the distribution of genotypes is environment-dependent and introgression is inhibited by exogenous selection. Main conclusions The historically shifting ecotone between tropical deciduous forest and Sonoran desertscrub appears to be a boundary that fostered divergence between parapatric lineages of tortoises. The sharp genetic cline between the two lineages suggests that periods of isolation in temporary refugia due to Pleistocene climatic cycling influenced divergence. Despite incomplete reproductive isolation, the Sonoran and Sinaloan lineages of G. morafkai are on separate evolutionary trajectories.

Arizona, Sonora↗

USGS2017

Screening of duplicated loci reveals hidden divergence patterns in a complex salmonid genome

A whole-genome duplication (WGD) doubles the entire genomic content of a species and is thought to have catalysed adaptive radiation in some polyploid-origin lineages. However, little is known about general consequences of a WGD because gene duplicates (i.e., paralogs) are commonly filtered in genomic studies; such filtering may remove substantial portions of the genome in data sets from polyploid-origin species. We demonstrate a new method that enables genome-wide scans for signatures of selection at both nonduplicated and duplicated loci by taking locus-specific copy number into account. We apply this method to RAD sequence data from different ecotypes of a polyploid-origin salmonid ( Oncorhynchus nerka ) and reveal signatures of divergent selection that would have been missed if duplicated loci were filtered. We also find conserved signatures of elevated divergence at pairs of homeologous chromosomes with residual tetrasomic inheritance, suggesting that joint evolution of some nondiverged gene duplicates may affect the adaptive potential of these genes. These findings illustrate that including duplicated loci in genomic analyses enables novel insights into the evolutionary consequences of WGDs and local segmental gene duplications.

Molecular Ecology↗

USGS2022

Seed menus: An integrated decision-support framework for native plant restoration in the Mojave Desert

The combination of ecosystem stressors, rapid climate change, and increasing landscape-scale development has necessitated active restoration across large tracts of disturbed habitats in the arid southwestern United States. In this context, programmatic directives such as the National Seed Strategy for Rehabilitation and Restoration have increasingly emphasized improved restoration practices that promote resilient, diverse plant communities and enhance native seed reserves. While decision-support tools have been implemented to support genetic diversity by guiding seed transfer decisions based on patterns in local adaptation, less emphasis has been placed on identifying priority seed mixes composed of native species assemblages. Well-designed seed mixes can provide foundational ecosystem services including resilience to disturbance, resistance to invasive species, plant canopy structure to facilitate natural seedling recruitment, and habitat to support wildlife and pollinator communities. Drawing from a newly developed dataset of species distribution models for priority native plant taxa in the Mojave Desert, we created a novel decision support tool by pairing spatial predictions of species habitat with a database of key species traits including life history, flowering characteristics, pollinator relationships, and propagation methods. This publicly available web application, Mojave Seed Menus, helps restoration practitioners generate customized seed mixes for native plant restoration in the Mojave Desert while emphasizing key species traits. Our application forms an essential part of an integrated Mojave Desert restoration program designed to help practitioners identify species to include in local seed mixes and nursery stock development while accounting for local adaptation by identifying appropriate seed sources within key restoration species.

Arizona, California, Nevada, Utah↗

USGS2023

The context dependency of fish-habitat associations in separated karst ecoregions

Fish populations may be isolated via natural conditions in geographically separated ecoregions. Although reconnecting these populations is not a management goal, we need to understand how these populations persist across landscapes to develop meaningful conservation actions, particularly for species occupying sensitive karst ecosystems. Our study objective was to determine the physicochemical factors related to the occurrence of four spring-associated fishes. Arbuckle Uplift and Ozark Highlands ecoregions, USA. We used a hierarchical approach to identify habitat relationships at multiple spatial scales. We collected detection data using snorkeling and seining. We examined the physicochemical relationships related to the detection and occurrence of four spring-associated fishes using occupancy modeling in a Bayesian framework. We found physicochemical relationships that differed and were similar between ecoregions for several fishes. For three species, we found different water temperature relationships between ecoregions. Smallmouth bass were ubiquitous in their use of drainage areas in the Ozark Highlands but only associated with the lower network of the Arbuckle Uplift. There were several mirrored relationships between ecoregions, including an interaction between residual pool depth and water temperature, where sites with deeper pools were more likely to be occupied during warmer water temperatures. There were single-species occurrence relationships with percent vegetation and percent agriculture. Lastly, snorkeling was a more efficient sampling method compared to seining for all fishes. Our results indicate stream temperature mitigation may be possible via the maintenance of key channel morphologies, and we identify shared stressors between ecoregions. Channel mitigation to maintain reaches with deeper pools may be an important strategy for maintaining thermal refugia, particularly when considering climate change. Identifying the mechanistic underpinning of other multiscale ecological relationships would be helpful to discern if some of the different ecoregion relationships represent warning signals or interactions with unmeasured biotic or abiotic factors.

Oklahoma↗

USGS2018

Landscape genetics identifies streams and drainage infrastructure as dispersal corridors for an endangered wetland bird

Anthropogenic alterations to landscape structure and composition can have significant impacts on biodiversity, potentially leading to species extinctions. Population‐level impacts of landscape change are mediated by animal behaviors, in particular dispersal behavior. Little is known about the dispersal habits of rails (Rallidae) due to their cryptic behavior and tendency to occupy densely vegetated habitats. The effects of landscape structure on the movement behavior of waterbirds in general are poorly studied due to their reputation for having high dispersal abilities. We used a landscape genetic approach to test hypotheses of landscape effects on dispersal behavior of the Hawaiian gallinule ( Gallinula galeata sandvicensis ), an endangered subspecies endemic to the Hawaiian Islands. We created a suite of alternative resistance surfaces representing biologically plausible a priori hypotheses of how gallinules might navigate the landscape matrix and ranked these surfaces by their ability to explain observed patterns in genetic distance among 12 populations on the island of O`ahu. We modeled effective distance among wetland locations on all surfaces using both cumulative least‐cost‐path and resistance‐distance approaches and evaluated relative model performance using Mantel tests, a causal modeling approach, and the mixed‐model maximum‐likelihood population‐effects framework. Across all genetic markers, simulation methods, and model comparison metrics, surfaces that treated linear water features like streams, ditches, and canals as corridors for gallinule movement outperformed all other models. This is the first landscape genetic study on the movement behavior of any waterbird species to our knowledge. Our results indicate that lotic water features, including drainage infrastructure previously thought to be of minimal habitat value, contribute to habitat connectivity in this listed subspecies.

Hawai`i↗

USGS2019

Estimating the energy expenditure of free‐ranging polar bears using tri‐axial accelerometers: A validation with doubly labeled water

Measures of energy expenditure can be used to inform animal conservation and management, but methods for measuring the energy expenditure of free‐ranging animals have a variety of limitations. Advancements in biologging technologies have enabled the use of dynamic body acceleration derived from accelerometers as a proxy for energy expenditure. Although dynamic body acceleration has been shown to strongly correlate with oxygen consumption in captive animals, it has been validated in only a few studies on free‐ranging animals. Here, we use relationships between oxygen consumption and overall dynamic body acceleration in resting and walking polar bears Ursus maritimus and published values for the costs of swimming in polar bears to estimate the total energy expenditure of 6 free‐ranging polar bears that were primarily using the sea ice of the Beaufort Sea. Energetic models based on accelerometry were compared to models of energy expenditure on the same individuals derived from doubly labeled water methods. Accelerometer‐based estimates of energy expenditure on average predicted total energy expenditure to be 30% less than estimates derived from doubly labeled water. Nevertheless, accelerometer‐based measures of energy expenditure strongly correlated ( r 2 = 0.70) with measures derived from doubly labeled water. Our findings highlight the strengths and limitations in dynamic body acceleration as a measure of total energy expenditure while also further supporting its use as a proxy for instantaneous, detailed energy expenditure in free‐ranging animals.

Alaska, Northwest Territories, Yukon↗

USGS2006

Niche evolution and adaptive radiation: Testing the order of trait divergence

In the course of an adaptive radiation, the evolution of niche parameters is of particular interest for understanding modes of speciation and the consequences for coexistence of related species within communities. We pose a general question: In the course of an evolutionary radiation, do traits related to within-community niche differences (?? niche) evolve before or after differentiation of macrohabitat affinity or climatic tolerances (?? niche)? Here we introduce a new test to address this question, based on a modification of the method of independent contrasts. The divergence order test (DOT) is based on the average age of the nodes on a tree, weighted by the absolute magnitude of the contrast at each node for a particular trait. The comparison of these weighted averages reveals whether large divergences for one trait have occurred earlier or later in the course of diversification, relative to a second trait; significance is determined by bootstrapping from maximum-likelihood ancestral state reconstructions. The method is applied to the evolution of Ceanothus, a woody plant group in California, in which co-occurring species exhibit significant differences in a key leaf trait (specific leaf area) associated with contrasting physiological and life history strategies. Co-occurring species differ more for this trait than expected under a null model of community assembly. This ?? niche difference evolved early in the divergence of two major subclades within Ceanothus, whereas climatic distributions (?? niche traits) diversified later within each of the subclades. However, rapid evolution of climate parameters makes inferences of early divergence events highly uncertain, and differentiation of the ?? niche might have taken place throughout the evolution of the group, without leaving a clear phylogenetic signal. Similar patterns observed in several plant and animal groups suggest that early divergence of ?? niche traits might be a common feature of niche evolution in many adaptive radiations. ?? 2006 by the Ecological Society of America.

Ecology↗

USGS2005

A geostatistical approach for describing spatial pattern in stream networks

The shape and configuration of branched networks influence ecological patterns and processes. Recent investigations of network influences in riverine ecology stress the need to quantify spatial structure not only in a two-dimensional plane, but also in networks. An initial step in understanding data from stream networks is discerning non-random patterns along the network. On the other hand, data collected in the network may be spatially autocorrelated and thus not suitable for traditional statistical analyses. Here we provide a method that uses commercially available software to construct an empirical variogram to describe spatial pattern in the relative abundance of coastal cutthroat trout in headwater stream networks. We describe the mathematical and practical considerations involved in calculating a variogram using a non-Euclidean distance metric to incorporate the network pathway structure in the analysis of spatial variability, and use a non-parametric technique to ascertain if the pattern in the empirical variogram is non-random.

Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2018

Quantitative acoustic differentiation of cryptic species illustrated with King and Clapper rails

Reliable species identification is vital for survey and monitoring programs. Recently, the development of digital technology for recording and analyzing vocalizations has assisted in acoustic surveying for cryptic, rare, or elusive species. However, the quantitative tools that exist for species differentiation are still being refined. Using vocalizations recorded in the course of ecological studies of a King Rail ( Rallus elegans ) and a Clapper Rail ( Rallus crepitans ) population, we assessed the accuracy and effectiveness of three parametric (logistic regression, discriminant function analysis, quadratic discriminant function analysis) and six nonparametric (support vector machine, CART, Random Forest, k ‐nearest neighbor, weighted k ‐nearest neighbor, and neural networks) statistical classification methods for differentiating these species by their kek mating call. We identified 480 kek notes of each species and quantitatively characterized them with five standardized acoustic parameters. Overall, nonparametric classification methods outperformed parametric classification methods for species differentiation (nonparametric tools were between 57% and 81% accurate, parametric tools were between 57% and 60% accurate). Of the nine classification methods, Random Forest was the most accurate and precise, resulting in 81.1% correct classification of kek notes to species. This suggests that the mating calls of these sister species are likely difficult for human observers to tell apart. However, it also implies that appropriate statistical tools may allow reasonable species‐level classification accuracy of recorded calls and provide an alternative to species classification where other capture‐ or genotype‐based survey techniques are not possible.

Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2023

Is now the time? Review of genetic rescue as a conservation tool for brook trout

Brook trout populations have been declining throughout their native range in the east coast of the United States. Many populations are now distributed in small, isolated habitat patches where low genetic diversity and high rates of inbreeding reduce contemporary viability and long-term adaptive potential. Although human-assisted gene flow could theoretically improve conservation outcomes through genetic rescue, there is widespread hesitancy to use this tool to support brook trout conservation. Here, we review the major uncertainties that have limited genetic rescue from being considered as a viable conservation tool for isolated brook trout populations and compare the risks of genetic rescue with other management alternatives. Drawing on theoretical and empirical studies, we discuss methods for implementing genetic rescue in brook trout that could yield long-term evolutionary benefits while avoiding negative fitness effects associated with outbreeding depression and the spread of maladapted alleles. We also highlight the potential for future collaborative efforts to accelerate our understanding of genetic rescue as a viable tool for conservation. Ultimately, while we acknowledge that genetic rescue is not without risk, we emphasize the merits that this tool offers for protecting and propagating adaptive potential and improving species' resilience to rapid environmental change.

Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2024

Lesser prairie-chicken dispersal after translocation: Implications for restoration and population connectivity

Conservation translocations are frequently inhibited by extensive dispersal after release, which can expose animals to dispersal-related mortality or Allee effects due to a lack of nearby conspecifics. However, translocation-induced dispersals also provide opportunities to study how animals move across a novel landscape, and how their movements are influenced by landscape configuration and anthropogenic features. Translocation among populations is considered a potential conservation strategy for lesser prairie-chickens ( Tympanuchus pallidicinctus ). We determined the influence of release area on dispersal frequency by translocated lesser prairie-chickens and measured how lesser prairie-chickens move through grassland landscapes through avoidance of anthropogenic features during their dispersal movements. We translocated 411 lesser prairie-chickens from northwest Kansas to southeastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas in 2016–2019. We used satellite GPS transmitters to track 115 lesser prairie-chickens throughout their post-release dispersal movements. We found that almost all lesser prairie-chickens that survived from their spring release date until June undergo post-translocation dispersal, and there was little variation in dispersal frequency by release area (96% of all tracked birds, 100% in Baca County, Colorado, 94% in Morton County, Kansas, n = 55). Dispersal movements (male: 103 ± 73 km, female: 175 ± 108 km, n = 62) led to diffusion across landscapes, with 69% of birds settling >5 km from their release site. During dispersal movements, translocated lesser prairie-chickens usually travel by a single 3.75 ± 4.95 km dispersal flight per day, selecting for steps that end far from roads and in Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) grasslands. Due to this “stepping stone” method of transit, landscape connectivity is optimized when <5 km separates grassland patches on the landscape. Future persistence of lesser prairie-chicken populations can be aided through conservation of habitat and strategic placement of CRP to maximize habitat connectivity. Dispersal rates suggest that translocation is better suited to objectives for regional, rather than site-specific, population augmentation for this species.

Colorado, Kansas↗

USGS2020

The transformative impact of genomics on sage-grouse conservation and management

For over two decades, genetic studies have been used to assist in the conservation and management of both Greater Sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) and Gunnison Sage-grouse ( C. minimus ), addressing a wide variety of topics including taxonomy, parentage, population connectivity, and demography. The field of conservation genetics has been transformed by dramatic improvements in sequencing technology, facilitating genomic studies in many wildlife species. The quality and amount of data generated by genomic methods vastly exceed that of traditional genetic studies, allowing for increased precision in estimating genetic parameters of interest. Perhaps more importantly, genomic methods can provide insight into non-neutral evolution such as adaptive divergence. Here we recount the shift from genetic to genomic methods using two wildlife species of substantial conservation interest, focusing on the improved capabilities and advantages of genomic methods. For instance, reassessment of divergence in sage-grouse using genomic methods confirmed strong differentiation between the two species and revealed that a small population in the state of Washington was more genetically distinct than previously recognized. Further, new genomic resources and approaches have been used to identify a family of genes linked to local dietary adaptation suggesting that sage-grouse may possess digestive and metabolic adaptations that mitigate the effects of consuming plant secondary metabolites like those found in sagebrush. Genetic variation among populations in these gene regions is thought to be involved with local dietary adaptations, and therefore maintaining the tie between sage-grouse and the chemistry of local sagebrush may be an important management consideration. We posit that the integration of newly developed genomic resources combined with the vast wealth of ecological and behavioral data for sage-grouse has the potential to shed light on mechanistic relationships that ultimately are vital to the conservation and management of these species.

Book chapter↗

USGS2024

Understanding key mineral supply chain dynamics using economics-informed material flow analysis and Bayesian optimization

The low-carbon energy transition requires significant increases in production for many mineral commodities. Understanding demand, technological requirements, and prices associated with this production increase requires understanding the supply chain dynamics of many minerals simultaneously, and via a consistent framework. A generalized economics-informed material flow method, global materials modeling using Bayesian optimization, captures the market dynamics of key mineral commodities. The method relies only on a limited set of widely available historical data as input, enabling quantification of economic relationships (elasticities) for supply chain components where data are sparse, and relationships cannot be obtained via traditional statistical approaches. Building upon established material flow analysis (MFA) and economic modeling techniques, Bayesian optimization was applied to fit an economics-informed MFA model to global historical demand, supply, and price for aluminum, copper, gold, lead, nickel, silver, iron, tin, and zinc. This approach enables estimates for the evolution of ore grades, mine costs, refining charges, sector-specific demand, and scrap collection for each commodity. Economic relationships were quantified and compared with a database compiled from the literature, including 1333 values from 213 analyses across 65 publications. Discrepancies in methods and limited coverage make use of these parameters in modeling efforts difficult. This work provides a single, homogeneous, probabilistic approach to identifying economic relationships across mineral supply chains, with uncertainty quantification, a literature database for comparison, and a modeling framework in which to use them. This article met the requirements for a Gold-Gold JIE data openness badge described at http://jie.click/badges .

Journal of Industrial Ecology↗

USGS2022

Upper Rio Grande Basin water-resource status and trends: Focus area study review and synthesis

The Upper Rio Grande Basin (URGB) is a critical international water resource under pressure from a myriad of climatic, ecological, infrastructural, water-use, and legal constraints. The objective of this study is to provide a comprehensive assessment of the spatial distribution and temporal trends of selected water-budget components (snow processes, evapotranspiration (ET), streamflow processes, and groundwater storage) using integrated analyses, such as watershed modeling and water availability and use data in the URGB over the past three decades. A spatially distributed snow evolution modeling system simulated snowpack processes over 34 years (1984–2017). It highlighted snow water equivalent declines from -35 to -77 mm/decade with widespread variability across elevation zones and land cover types. Gridded actual ET data from the SSEBop model were developed and tested for the URGB and demonstrated that all land-cover types had significant decreasing trends (1986-2015) ranging from -14 to -80 mm/decade. Conductivity-mass-balance (CMB) hydrograph separation results found that baseflow forms a large component of total streamflow, ranging from 29 to 69% (49% average) of total streamflow at 17 URGB sites upstream of Albuquerque, NM. Three of 4 graphical hydrograph separation methods in the U.S. Geological Survey Groundwater Toolbox were found to be inappropriate for estimating baseflow in the URGB; the most promising method, baseflow index (BFI) Standard, was optimized using CMB data and tested at three URGB sites, with resulting overestimation of 0 to 47%. Simulated changes in groundwater storage were extracted from historical and recent groundwater-flow models of select alluvial basins (San Luis, Española, Middle Rio Grande, and Tularosa-Hueco). In general, decreases in groundwater storage were observed from 1903 to 2013 except for the San Luis alluvial basin (Colorado), where periods of recovery are observed. The PRMS hydrologic model was successfully calibrated for 9 near-native subbasins (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency 0.47 to 0.85) and parameters translated to the remaining subbasins; compared to simulated near-native flows (with minimal influence of reservoirs or diversions), observed Rio Grande streamgage flows demonstrated reductions of 40% or more for New Mexico and Texas areas of the basin. Significant decreasing trends (1980-2015) in precipitation, snowmelt rate, streamflow, and baseflow were observed at many of the 12 streamgage basins studied, which suggests that the decreasing trends for actual ET may be related to overall decreasing water availability in the basin, with negative implications for agricultural production and groundwater abstraction. Water security concerns arise from our findings of higher fraction precipitation as rain, slower snowmelt rates leading to decreasing streamflow production, and an increasing fraction of baseflow, all of which will affect the timing and magnitude of water available for human needs in the basin.

Upper Rio Grande Basin↗