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At least 181 records · Page 10Linked to original sources

Anatomy and dynamics of a floodplain, Powder River, Montana, U.S.A.

Centimeter-scale measurements on several Powder River floodplains provide insights into the nature of overbank depositional processes that created the floodplains; during a 20-year period after a major flood in 1978. Rising stages initially entered across a sill at the downriver end of the floodplains. Later, as stages continued to rise, water entered the floodplains through distinct low saddles along natural levees. The annual maximum depth of water over the levee crest averaged 0.19 in from 1983 through 1996, and the estimated flow velocities were approximately 0.15 m s-1. Water ponded in the floodplain trough, a topographic low between the natural levee and the pre-flood riverbank, and mud settled as thin layers of nearly constant thickness. Mud layers alternated with sand layers, which were relatively thick near the channel. Together, these beds created a distinctive natural levee. In some locations, individual flood deposits began as a thin mud layer that gradually coarsened upwards to medium-grained sand. Coarsening-upwards sequences form initially as mud because only the uppermost layers of water in the channel supply the first overbank flows, which are rich in mud but starved of sand. At successively higher stages, fine sands and then medium sands increase in concentration in the floodwater and are deposited as fine- and medium-sand layers overlying the initial mud layer. Theoretical predictions from mathematical models of sediment transport by advection and diffusion indicate that these processes acting alone are unlikely to create the observed sand layers of nearly uniform thickness that extend across much of the floodplain. We infer that other transport processes, notably bedload transport, must be important along Powder River. Even with the centimeter-scale measurements of floodplain deposits, daily hydraulic data, and precise annual surface topographic surveys, we were unable to determine any clear correspondence between the gauged flow record of overbank floods and the depositional layers mapped in the floodplain. These results provide a detailed example of floodplain deposits and depositional processes that should prove useful for interpreting natural levee deposits in a variety of geologic settings. Copyright ?? 2008, SEPM (Society for Sedimentary Geology).

Journal of Sedimentary Research

Partnership of Environmental Education and Research-A compilation of student research, 1999-2008

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Tennessee Water Science Center and the College of Engineering and Technology at Tennessee State University developed a Partnership in Environmental Education and Research (PEER) to support environmental research at TSU and to expand the environmental research capabilities of the USGS in Tennessee. The PEER program is driven by the research needs to better define the occurrence, fate, and transport of contaminants in groundwater and surface water. Research in the PEER program has primarily focused on the transport and remediation of organic contamination in karst settings. Research conducted through the program has also expanded to a variety of media and settings. Research areas include contaminant occurrence and transport, natural and enhanced bioremediation, geochemical conditions in karst aquifers, mathematical modeling for contaminant transport and degradation, new methods to evaluate groundwater contamination, the resuspension of bacteria from sediment in streams, the use of bioluminescence and chemiluminescence to identify the presence of contaminants, and contaminant remediation in wetlands. The PEER program has increased research and education opportunities for students in the College of Engineering, Technology, and Computer Science and has provided students with experience in presenting the results of their research. Students in the program have participated in state, regional, national and international conferences with more than 140 presentations since 1998 and more than 40 student awards. The PEER program also supports TSU outreach activities and efforts to increase minority participation in environmental and earth science programs at the undergraduate and graduate levels. TSU students and USGS staff participate in the TSU summer programs for elementary and high school students to promote earth sciences. The 2007 summer camps included more than 130 students from 20 different States and Washington DC.

Tennessee

Gravity studies in the Carolina slate belt near the Haile and Brewer mines, north-central South Carolina

The Bouguer gravity map of part of the Carolina slate belt near the Haile and Brewer mines in South Carolina shows anomalies related to rock units. The most conspicuous of the anomalies coincide with coarse-grained granitic plutons. Mathematically calculated models using an iterative three-dimensional solution of the gravity anomalies show that these plutons are steep-sided intrusive bodies that constrict at depth to small pipes or roots. The plutons are emplaced in and are probably largely confined to a unit of volcaniclastic rocks. The volcaniclastic rocks are probably 6,000 m to 10,000 m thick and similar in composition to those exposed in the vicinity of the plutons.

South Carolina

Artificial Recharge — State of the Art

The largest potential reservoir for the storage of potable water is in the unsaturated zone. Use of this space for the storage and retrieval of potable water is a multifaceted problem which requires application of the best talent from the scientific community. Artificial recharge has many similarities to liquidwaste disposal through deep wells. In both, the problem is to place liquid in a permeable lithologic unit at an economic rate, to predict movement and the chemical reactions and physical changes that take place while the liquid is in the reservoir. Differences between the two operations are principally in the type of fluid injected and the ultimate objective. In artificial recharge the objective is to store and retrieve water of good quality; in waste disposal the objective is to store permanently water of objectionable quality. In both artificial recharge and liquid-waste storage, the nature of the storage must be known, particularly that of the unsaturated zone. The techniques of investigation for recharge and waste disposal are generally the same. Water commonly is recharged by surface spreading through basins or by induced recharge from adjacent streams and lakes or through injection wells. Research in recharge through basins has been dominated by mathematical models based on idealized conditions and empirical relations, derived by experimental sequencing of recharge operations, and operational controls in the pretreatment of recharge water. Recharge by injection wells has been undertaken in a variety of hydrologic environments. In Israel efforts have been directed toward the analyses of diffusion and dispersion of the injected water. Much research in the United States has been directed toward the movement of bacteria and organic matter through an aquifer and toward the chemical modeling of changes in recharged water as it moves. Much more research is needed on the basic properties of aquifers, particularly in the unsaturated zone, and on all aspects of recharge-water quality. Research and the use of data produced are increasingly the responsibility of interdisciplinary teams which consider the geologic, hydraulic, and economic aspects of the system.

Groundwater

Outburst floods provide erodability estimates consistent with long-term landscape evolution

Most current models for the landscape evolution over geological timescales are based on semi-empirical laws that consider riverbed incision proportional to rock erodability (dependent on lithology) and to the work performed by water flow (stream power). However, the erodability values obtained from these models are entangled with poorly known conditions of past climate and streamflow. Here we use the erosion reported for 82 outburst floods triggered by overtopping lakes as a way to estimate the outlet erodability. This avoids the common assumptions regarding past hydrology because water discharge from overtopping floods is often well constrained from geomorphological evidence along the spillway. This novel methodology yields values of erodability that show a quantitative relation to lithology similar to previous river erosion analyses, expanding the range of hydrological and temporal scales of fluvial incision models and suggesting some consistency between the mathematical formulations of long-term and catastrophic erosional mechanisms. Our results also clarify conditions leading to the runaway erosion responsible for outburst floods triggered by overtopping lakes.

Scientific Reports

Thermal maturity of the Anadarko Basin

Levels of thermal maturity are estimated for Paleozoic strata in five areas of the central Anadarko basin for times between the Paleozoic and the present, and depths of the oil window are plotted as a function of geologic time. Mean surface temperature assumed here for calculating Lopatin's time-temperature index of thermal maturity (TTl) in the central Anadarko basin declines from 80°F (27°C) to 60°F (16°C) from early Paleozoic time to the present. Shallow-water carbonates and lower paleolatitudes suggest warmer climates in the Paleozoic for this area. The geothermal gradient is assumed to equal 4.0°F/100 ft (7.3°C/100 m) in the Late Cambrian and to decay over a 100-m.y. period to the present regional gradient of 1.3°F/100 ft (2.4°C/100 m). Initial basin formation was caused by crustal thinning. Accumulation of thick Pennsylvanian sediments in a foreland-style basin dominated by vertical lithospheric flexure represents a second major period of subsidence. An elevated geothermal gradient during this time is not assumed for TTl calculations, because mathematical models suggest time-invariant heat flows in such basins. TTl computations based on these assumptions indicate that oil could have been generated in the ancestral Anadarko basin >350 m.y. ago. By the end of the Pennsylvanian, significant volumes of kerogen were in the oil window (and perhaps beyond), and significant volumes have remained in the oil window up to the present day. These circumstances may partially explain the unusual richness of the Anadarko basin as a Paleozoic hydrocarbon province.

Oklahoma

Elevation-relief ratio, hypsometric integral, and geomorphic area-altitude analysis

Mathematical proof establishes identity of hypsometric integral and elevation-relief ratio, two quantitative topographic descriptors developed independently of one another for entirely different purposes. Operationally, values of both measures are in excellent agreement for arbitrarily bounded topographic samples, as well as for low-order fluvial watersheds. By using a point-sampling technique rather than planimetry, elevation-relief ratio (defined as mean elevation minus minimum elevation divided by relief) is calculated manually in about a third of the time required for the hypsometric integral.

Bulletin of the Geological Society of America

Distribution of regional pressure in the onshore and offshore Gulf of Mexico basin, USA

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has created a comprehensive geopressure-gradient model of the regional pressure system spanning the onshore and offshore portions of the Gulf of Mexico, USA. The model was used to generate ten maps: five contour maps (Maps 1A - 5A) characterize the depth to the surface defined by the first occurrence of isopressure-gradients ranging from 0.60 psi/ft to 1.00 psi/ft, in 0.10-psi/ft increments, and five supporting maps (Maps 1B - 5B) display the spatial density of the data used to construct the isopressure-gradient maps. The boundary of the geopressure-gradient model represents the maximum extent of the calculated pressure-gradient data. The regional investigation, however, encompassed an area defined by the USGS Upper Jurassic-Cretaceous-Tertiary Composite Total Petroleum System Boundary, and the availability of offshore data. A description of the geopressure-gradient model, including related mathematical derivations, the data-quality control methodology, linear pressure interpolation calculations, and contouring algorithms is provided by Burke et al. (in press [a]; in press [b]); these references, as well as a summary of the geopressure-gradient model, are supplied in the online documentation .

Gulf of Mexico

Permafrost hydrogeology

Groundwater processes are often overlooked in permafrost environments, but subsurface storage and routing can strongly influence water and biogeochemical cycling in northern catchments. Groundwater flow in permafrost regions is controlled by the temporal and spatial distribution of frozen ground, causing the hydrogeologic framework to be temperature-dependent. Most flow occurs in geologic units above the permafrost table (supra-permafrost aquifers) or below the permafrost base (sub-permafrost aquifers). In the context of climate change, thawing permafrost is altering groundwater flowpaths and thereby inducing positive trends in river baseflow in many discontinuous permafrost basins. Activated groundwater systems can provide new conduits for flushing Arctic basins and transporting nutrients to basin outlets. The thermal and hydraulic physics that govern groundwater flow in permafrost regions are strongly coupled and more complex than those in non-permafrost settings. Recent research activity in permafrost hydrogeological modeling has resulted in several mainstream groundwater models (e.g., SUTRA, FEFLOW, HYDRUS) offering users advanced capabilities for simulating processes in aquifers that experience dynamic freeze-thaw. This chapter relies on field examples to review key processes and conditions that control groundwater dynamics in permafrost settings and presents an up-to-date synthesis of the mathematical representation of heat transfer and groundwater flow in northern landscapes.

Book chapter

Bounded fractional diffusion in geological media: Definition and Lagrangian approximation

Spatiotemporal Fractional-Derivative Models (FDMs) have been increasingly used to simulate non-Fickian diffusion, but methods have not been available to define boundary conditions for FDMs in bounded domains. This study defines boundary conditions and then develops a Lagrangian solver to approximate bounded, one-dimensional fractional diffusion. Both the zero-value and non-zero-value Dirichlet, Neumann, and mixed Robin boundary conditions are defined, where the sign of Riemann-Liouville fractional derivative (capturing non-zero-value spatial-nonlocal boundary conditions with directional super-diffusion) remains consistent with the sign of the fractional-diffusive flux term in the FDMs. New Lagrangian schemes are then proposed to track solute particles moving in bounded domains, where the solutions are checked against analytical or Eularian solutions available for simplified FDMs. Numerical experiments show that the particle-tracking algorithm for non-Fickian diffusion differs from Fickian diffusion in relocating the particle position around the reflective boundary, likely due to the non-local and non-symmetric fractional diffusion. For a non-zero-value Neumann or Robin boundary, a source cell with a reflective face can be applied to define the release rate of random-walking particles at the specified flux boundary. Mathematical definitions of physically meaningful nonlocal boundaries combined with bounded Lagrangian solvers in this study may provide the only viable techniques at present to quantify the impact of boundaries on anomalous diffusion, expanding the applicability of FDMs from infinite do mains to those with any size and boundary conditions.

Water Resources Research

Source contributions to suspended sediment and particulate selenium export from the Loutsenhizer Arroyo and Sunflower Drain watersheds in Colorado

Selenium in aquatic ecosystems of the lower Gunnison River Basin in Colorado is affecting the recovery of populations of endangered, native fish species. Dietary exposure is the primary pathway for bioaccumulation of selenium in fish, and particulate selenium can be consumed directly by fish or by the invertebrates on which fish feed. Although selenium can be incorporated into particulate matter via biogeochemical processes, particulate selenium can also enter aquatic ecosystems of the lower Gunnison River Basin from sediments derived from the selenium-rich Mancos Shale. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Colorado Water Conservation Board, conducted this study during 2018–19 to identify sources of selenium-rich suspended sediments from two watersheds underlain by Mancos Shale: Loutsenhizer Arroyo and Sunflower Drain, which is a locally known agricultural drainage near the municipality of Delta, Colorado. A multipronged approach (fieldwork, laboratory work, and computer modeling) referred to as “sediment fingerprinting” was used to evaluate sources of suspended sediments in the streams flowing out of the two studied watersheds. Four potential source types for suspended sediments were identified and sampled (using soil plugs) within the watersheds: rangelands, agricultural fields, arroyo walls, and streambanks. The sediment fingerprinting approach used elemental concentrations and naturally occurring fallout radionuclides as tracers to apportion percent contributions from the four source types of suspended sediments found in streamflow from both watersheds. To determine the dominant sources of suspended sediment in streamflow from both watersheds, a mathematical “unmixing” model was used. Unmixing models apportion source percentages to samples of material in which those sources are mixed. These models used elemental and isotopic data in the suspended sediments to unmix them into proportional contributions from source types. The results indicated that arroyo walls and streambanks generally dominated as sources of the suspended sediment. Arroyo walls and streambanks were channel-adjacent sources, with sediments mobilized by water flowing within the stream channel. These sources accounted for greater than 50 percent of suspended sediment in all but one sample and accounted for 100 percent of suspended sediment in 5 of the 11 samples collected. Rangeland and agricultural field sources were located in uplands outside of stream channels and were detected more often during the non-irrigation season. Rangeland and agricultural field sources each were found in 5 of the 11 samples collected. Concentrations of selenium in sediment-source samples were comparatively greater in streambanks and lower in rangelands, with agricultural fields and arroyo walls being intermediate. As a result, source apportionments for particulate selenium skewed towards sources adjacent to stream channels more than for suspended sediments. Water imports for irrigation have changed the hydrology of the watersheds, and a notable fraction of imported water passes through the watersheds rapidly. The rapid flowthrough water during the irrigation season likely contributes heavily to sediment erosion and transport in Loutsenhizer Arroyo and Sunflower Drain, particularly from channel-adjacent sources of sediment. Decreases in irrigation season streamflow, at least in Loutsenhizer Arroyo, may have decreased sediment erosion and transport during the 2018–20 irrigation seasons compared to the 2015–17 seasons.

Colorado

Basic ground-water hydrology

Ground water is one of the Nation's most valuable natural resources. It is the source of about 40 percent of the water used for all purposes exclusive of hydropower generation and electric powerplant cooling. Surprisingly, for a resource that is so widely used and so important to the health and to the economy of the country, the occurrence of ground water is not only poorly understood but is also, in fact, the subject of many widespread misconceptions. Common misconceptions include the belief that ground water occurs in underground rivers resembling surface streams whose presence can be detected by certain individuals. These misconceptions and others have hampered the development and conservation of ground water and have adversely affected the protection of its quality. In order for the Nation to receive maximum benefit from its ground-water resource, it is essential that everyone, from the rural homeowner to managers of industrial and municipal water supplies to heads of Federal and State water-regulatory agencies, become more knowledgeable about the occurrence, development, and protection of ground water. This report has been prepared to help meet the needs of these groups, as well as the needs of hydrologists, well drillers, and others engaged in the study and development of ground-water supplies. It consists of 45 sections on the basic elements of ground-water hydrology, arranged in order from the most basic aspects of the subject through a discussion of the methods used to determine the yield of aquifers to a discussion of common problems encountered in the operation of ground-water supplies. Each section consists of a brief text and one or more drawings or maps that illustrate the main points covered in the text. Because the text is, in effect, an expanded discussion of the illustrations, most of the illustrations are not captioned. However, where more than one drawing is included in a section, each drawing is assigned a number, given in parentheses, and these numbers are inserted at places in the text where the reader should refer to the drawing. In accordance with U.S. Geological Survey policy to encourage the use of metric units, these units are used in most sections. In the sections dealing with the analysis of aquifer (pumping) test data, equations are given in both consistent units and in the inconsistent inch-pound units still in relatively common use among ground-water hydrologists and well drillers. As an aid to those who are not familiar with metric units and with the conversion of ground-water hydraulic units from inch-pound units to metric units, conversion tables are given on the inside back cover. Definitions of ground-water terms are given where the terms are first introduced. Because some of these terms will be new to many readers, abbreviated definitions are also given on the inside front cover for convenient reference by those who wish to review the definitions from time to time as they read the text. Finally, for those who need to review some of the simple mathematical operations that are used in ground-water hydrology, a section on numbers, equations, and conversions is included at the end of the text.

Water Supply Paper

Hydraulic, geochemical, and thermal monitoring of an aquifer system in the vicinity of Mammoth Lakes, Mono County, California, 2015–17

Since 2014, the U.S. Geological Survey has been working in cooperation with the Bureau of Land Management, Mono County, Ormat Technologies, Inc., and the Mammoth Community Water District to design and implement a groundwater-monitoring program for the proposed Casa Diablo IV Geothermal Power Project in Long Valley Caldera, California, to characterize baseline groundwater-level, water-temperature, and water-chemistry conditions at dedicated monitoring wells and municipal supply wells. The publicly available data and the analyses provided here represent quality-assured and peer-reviewed information to help with the management of the thermal and non-thermal water resources beneath and in the vicinity of the town of Mammoth Lakes, California. The methods of data collection for continuous water levels and quarterly water-temperature profiles for two 600-foot-deep monitoring wells during 2016 through 2017 are discussed. Also discussed are the methods of water-sample collection and characterizations of the water chemistry in numerous wells in the multilayered aquifer system beneath Mammoth Lakes. Additionally, the methodology used to develop digital (mathematical) filters to remove or reduce the effects of barometric pressure and solid Earth tides on the continuous water-level records is discussed. Digitally filtered water levels for a 2017 flow test of a deep geothermal production well are described, and various aquifer responses observed during the flow test are discussed. These are further considered in a companion evaluation of potential physical and chemical influences on the water-level data collected during the flow test. The digitally filtered water-level data indicated that some hydraulic communication exists between the deep geothermal aquifer and shallow groundwater aquifer at the location of the flow test, northeast of Mammoth Lakes. Groundwater-chemistry data from three wells indicated that shallow groundwater naturally mixes with a small component of geothermal water along the northern periphery of the shallow aquifer system at Mammoth Lakes.

California

Projected effects of proposed chloride-control projects on shallow ground water– Preliminary results for the Wichita River basin, Texas

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers' plan to control the natural chloride pollution in the Wichita River basin includes the construction of Truscott Brine Lake on a tributary of the North Wichita River. In connection with the proposed brine lake, the U.S. Geological Survey was requested to: (1) Define the existing ground-water conditions in the shallow fresh-water system of the project area; and (2) project the post-construction effects of the proposed lake on the fresh-water aquifer, especially in relation to hydraulic-head changes but also with respect to possible changes in the chemical quality of the ground water. The fresh-water aquifer in the project area is a shallow water-table system with relatively fresh water (generally a calcium sulfate type) that contains approximately 500 to 5,000 milligrams per liter of dissolved solids. The aquifer consists of Permian rocks with very small values of hydraulic conductivity and overlies a brine system (sodium chloride type) that is even less permeable. A thin transition zone separates the fresh-water aquifer and the brine system. Small quantities of infiltration from precipitation throughout the area's watershed constitute the recharge to the aquifer. Discharge from the aquifer consists of the small base flow along creeks; well discharge is negligible. Two-dimensional mathematical computer models were developed for aquifer simulation of: (1) Steady-state conditions in a fresh-water system and (2) transient conditions in a brine- fresh-water system where the density effects of the brine are considered. The main results 'of projecting the effects of the proposed Truscott Brine Lake on the fresh-water aquifer are: (1) Hydraulic head rises of 5 to 40 feet would be confined to areas near the proposed dam and along the lake shoreline, and (2) migration of salt water downstream from the dam generally would be limited to less than 1 mile and apparently would not reach equilibrium during the 100-year duration of the project. The modeling efforts did not include possible effects related to hydrodynamic dispersion in the brine- fresh-water system. Possible changes in the hydraulic conductivity of the aquifer, due to physical and chemical interactions in the brine and fresh-water environments, also were not considered.

Texas

Using expert knowledge to support Endangered Species Act decision‐making for data‐deficient species

Many questions relevant to conservation decision making are characterized by extreme uncertainty due to lack of empirical data and complexity of the underlying ecological processes, leading to a rapid increase in the use of structured protocols to elicit expert knowledge. Published ecological applications often employ a modified Delphi method, where experts provide judgments anonymously and mathematical aggregation techniques are used to combine judgments. The Sheffield Elicitation Framework (SHELF) differs in its behavioral approach to synthesizing individual judgments into a fully specified probability distribution for an unknown quantity. This study demonstrates the remote use of the SHELF protocol for an extinction risk assessment of three subterranean aquatic species petitioned for listing under the US Endangered Species Act. Experts were provided an empirical threat assessment for each known locality using video conferencing and asked for judgments on the probability of population persistence over four generations using online submission forms and R‐shiny apps available through the SHELF package. Despite large uncertainty for all populations, results reveal key differences between species’ risk of extirpation based on spatial variation in dominant threats, local land use and management practices, and microhabitat use. The resulting probability distributions provide decision makers with a full picture of uncertainty that is consistent with the probabilistic nature of risk assessments, and discussions during the behavioral aggregation stage clearly document dominant threats (e.g., development, timber harvest, animal agriculture, and cave visitation) and their interactions with local cave geology and species’ habitat preferences. Our virtual implementation of the SHELF protocol demonstrates the flexibility of this approach for conservation applications operating on budgets and timelines that can limit in‐person meetings of geographically dispersed experts.

Conservation Biology

Groundwater-flow budget for the lower Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin in southwestern Georgia and parts of Florida and Alabama, 2008–12

As part of the National Water Census program in the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint (ACF) River Basin, the U.S. Geological Survey evaluated the groundwater budget of the lower ACF, with particular emphasis on recharge, characterizing the spatial and temporal relation between surface water and groundwater, and groundwater pumping. To evaluate the hydrologic budget of the lower ACF River Basin, a groundwater-flow model, constructed using MODFLOW-2005, was developed for the Upper Floridan aquifer and overlying semiconfining unit for 2008–12. Model input included temporally and spatially variable specified recharge, estimated using a Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) model for the ACF River Basin, and pumping, partly estimated on the basis of measured agricultural pumping rates in Georgia. The model was calibrated to measured groundwater levels and base flows, which were estimated using hydrograph separation. The simulated groundwater-flow budget resulted in a small net cumulative loss of groundwater in storage during the study period. The model simulated a net loss in groundwater storage for all the subbasins as conditions became substantially drier from the beginning to the end of the study period. The model is limited by its conceptualization, the data used to represent and calibrate the model, and the mathematical representation of the system; therefore, any interpretations should be considered in light of these limitations. In spite of these limitations, the model provides insight regarding water availability in the lower ACF River Basin.

Alabama, Florida, Georgia

The significance and nature of the cone of depression in ground-water bodies

In nature the hydraulic system in an aquifer is in balance; the discharge is equal to the recharge and the water table or other piezometric surface is more or less fixed in position. Discharge by wells is a new discharge superimposed on the previous system. Before a new equilibrium can be established water levels must fall throughout the aquifer to an extent sufficient to reduce the natural discharge or increase the recharge by an amount equal to the amount discharged by the well. Until this new equilibrium is established water must be withdrawnfrom storage in the aquifer and conversely the new equilibrium cannot be established until an amount of water is withdrawn from storage by the well sufficient to depress the piezometric surface enough to change the recharge or natural discharge the proper amount. The depression of the piezometric surface is called the cone of depression.The characteristics of the cone of depression in an idealized aquifer of infinite areal extent are considered mathematically. Time is an essential variable in the description of this cone. The time rate of lateral growth of the cone is independent of the rate of discharge by the well and depends only on the physical characteristics of the aquifer. The cone must grow laterally much more rapidly in artesian aquifers than it does in nonartesian. The characteristics of the cone in actual aquifers are then considered. In finely porous artesian aquifers the cone appears to be much like the cone in the ideal aquifer. The cone in non-artesian aquifers must be somewhat warped. The theory out-lined implies that well discharge from extensive water-table aquifers must be a draft on storage in the aquifer for many generations.

Economic Geology

Updating the debate on model complexity

As scientists who are trying to understand a complex natural world that cannot be fully characterized in the field, how can we best inform the society in which we live? This founding context was addressed in a special session, “Complexity in Modeling: How Much is Too Much?” convened at the 2011 Geological Society of America Annual Meeting. The session had a variety of thought-provoking presentations—ranging from philosophy to cost-benefit analyses—and provided some areas of broad agreement that were not evident in discussions of the topic in 1998 (Hunt and Zheng, 1999). The session began with a short introduction during which model complexity was framed borrowing from an economic concept, the Law of Diminishing Returns, and an example of enjoyment derived by eating ice cream. Initially, there is increasing satisfaction gained from eating more ice cream, to a point where the gain in satisfaction starts to decrease, ending at a point when the eater sees no value in eating more ice cream. A traditional view of model complexity is similar—understanding gained from modeling can actually decrease if models become unnecessarily complex. However, oversimplified models—those that omit important aspects of the problem needed to make a good prediction—can also limit and confound our understanding. Thus, the goal of all modeling is to find the “sweet spot” of model sophistication—regardless of whether complexity was added sequentially to an overly simple model or collapsed from an initial highly parameterized framework that uses mathematics and statistics to attain an optimum (e.g., Hunt et al., 2007). Thus, holistic parsimony is attained, incorporating “as simple as possible,” as well as the equally important corollary “but no simpler.”

GSA Today