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USGS2017

Understanding and finding solutions to the problem of sedimentation in the National Wildlife Refuge System

The National Wildlife Refuge System (Refuge System) is a collection of public lands maintained by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service for migratory birds and other wildlife. Wetlands on individual National Wildlife Refuges (Refuges) may be at risk of increased sedimentation because of land use and water management practices. Increased sedimentation can reduce wetland habitat quality by altering hydrologic function, degrading water quality, and inhibiting growth of vegetation and invertebrates. On Refuges negatively affected by increased sedimentation, managers have to address complex questions about how to best remediate and mitigate the negative effects. The best way to account for these complexities is often not clear. On other Refuges, managers may not know whether sedimentation is a problem. Decision makers in the Refuge System may need to allocate resources to studying which Refuges could be at risk. Such analyses would help them understand where to direct support for managing increased sedimentation. In this paper, we summarize a case study demonstrating the use of decision-analytic tools in the development of a sedimentation management plan for Agassiz National Wildlife Refuge, Minnesota. Using what we learned from that process, we surveyed other Refuges in U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Region 3 (an area encompassing the states of Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Ohio, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, and Wisconsin) and Region 6 (an area encompassing the states of Colorado, Kansas, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Utah, and Wyoming) about whether they experience sediment-related impacts to management. Our results show that cases of management being negatively affected by increased sedimentation are not isolated. We suggest that the Refuge System conduct a comprehensive and systematic assessment of increased sedimentation among Refuges to understand the importance of sedimentation in context with other management problems that Refuges face. The results of such an assessment could guide how the Refuge System allocates resources to studying and managing widespread stressors.

Minnesota↗
USGS2021

Simulation of groundwater budgets and travel times for watersheds on the north shore of Long Island Sound, with implications for nitrogen-transport studies

Aquatic systems in and around the Long Island Sound (LIS) provide a variety of ecological and economic benefits, but in some areas of the LIS, aquatic ecosystems have become degraded by excess nitrogen. A substantial fraction of the nitrogen inputs to the LIS are transported through the groundwater-flow system. Because groundwater travel times in surficial aquifers can exceed 100 years, multiyear lags are introduced between inputs at the water table in recharge areas and discharge to inland or coastal receiving waters. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Connecticut Department of Energy and Environmental Protection and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Long Island Sound Study, developed a steady-state groundwater model of the watersheds draining from the northern shore of the LIS for the purpose of calculating groundwater budgets and travel times to coastal waters. The model was developed by using the MODFLOW–NWT software and existing spatial data on aquifers, river networks, land-surface altitudes, land cover, groundwater recharge, and water use. Coastal waters were delineated on the basis of the National Wetland Inventory; all non-coastal waters were collectively termed “inland waters.” A coarse-resolution model was calibrated by using the PEST++ software, long-term records of water levels in 65 wells, stream altitudes from 477 streams, base-flow records for 14 streamgages that are relatively unaffected by withdrawals, and error metrics based on incorrectly simulated flooding and incorrectly simulated dry streams. The calibrated values were used in a fine-resolution model in which the mean absolute residuals were 4.5 meters for groundwater levels, 1.3 meters for stream altitudes, and 7,200 cubic meters per day (2.9 cubic feet per second) for base flow. About 89 percent of the terrestrial cells were correctly simulated with the water table below land surface, and nearly 90 percent of the cells representing streams were correctly simulated as having the water table above the stream bottom. Together, these metrics suggest that this model is robust for simulating regional-scale groundwater patterns. Simulated groundwater budgets were compiled for the entire study area, for each HUC12 (Hydrologic Unit Code no. 12) watershed and its adjacent coastal waters, if applicable, within the study area, and for 14 coastal-embayment watersheds. Most groundwater (90.6 percent of inflows) discharged to inland waters, with smaller fractions to coastal waters (7.0 percent) and well withdrawals (2.4 percent). When computed for HUC12 watersheds with coastal discharge, the portions of groundwater discharging to coastal waters ranged from 0.02 to 66 percent of groundwater outflows, with a median of 13 percent. Within priority-embayment watersheds, the portions of groundwater discharging to coastal waters ranged from 2 to 56 percent, with a median of 15 percent. Groundwater travel times also were simulated for the entire study area, for each HUC12 watershed and its adjacent coastal waters, if applicable, within the study area and for 14 priority coastal embayments. Within the entire study area, the median groundwater travel time was 1.9 years, with an interquartile range of 0.1 to 5.9 years. Sensitivity analysis of groundwater travel times within a subbasin in the study area indicates that the travel times are a function of the grid resolution, with coarser grids resulting in shorter median travel times. Travel times for groundwater discharging to coastal waters were similar to travel times for groundwater discharging to inland waters, with a median of 1.9 years. Median travel times for the HUC12 watersheds ranged from 0.9 to 53.5 years, with a median of 1.8 years. Among HUC12 watersheds that include coastal areas, travel times for groundwater discharging to coastal waters ranged from less than 1 to 61.6 years, with a median of 2.8 years. The HUC12 watersheds with the longest simulated travel times were in the urban area near New York City where the model performance is less accurate. Median travel times for groundwater discharging to coastal waters within the priority-embayment watersheds ranged from less than 1 to 18.6 years, with a median of 2.3 years. A more focused analysis was conducted for the Niantic River watershed to demonstrate the applicability of the regional model to local-scale nitrogen-transport analyses by using nitrogen-input and -attenuation rates from literature sources. Nitrogen inputs were estimated by using land-cover-based loading factors, and attenuation was estimated by using attenuation factors based on geologic zones and soil properties. Based on this analysis, groundwater transports an estimated 22,000 kilograms of nitrogen per year (2.9 kilograms of nitrogen per hectare per year) to streams, rivers, and coastal waters within the Niantic River watershed. Approximately 36 percent of discharging nitrogen is from atmospheric-deposition sources, 38 percent is from fertilizers, and 26 percent is from septic systems. Most of the groundwater-transported nitrogen (88 percent) discharges first to streams and rivers, with only 12 percent discharging directly to coastal waters. Travel times for groundwater-transported nitrogen ranged from less than 1 day to more than 100 years, with a median of 1.6 years.

Connecticut, New York, Rhode Island↗
USGS2012

Century-scale perspective on water quality in selected river basins of the conterminous United States

Nutrient pollution in the form of excess nitrogen and phosphorus inputs is a well-known cause of water-quality degradation that has affected water bodies across the Nation throughout the 20th century. The recognition of excess nutrients as pollution developed later than the recognition of other water-quality problems, such as waterborne illness, industrial pollution, and organic wastes. Nevertheless, long-term analysis of nutrient pollution is fundamental to our understanding of the current magnitude of the problem, as well the origins and the effects. This report describes the century-scale changes in water quality across a range streams in order to place current water-quality concerns in historical context and presents this history on a national scale as well as for selected river reaches. The primary focus is on nutrient pollution, but the development and societal responses to other water-quality problems also are considered. Land use and agriculture in the selected river reaches also are analyzed to consider how these factors may relate to nutrient pollution. Finally, the availability of relevant nutrient and inorganic carbon data are presented for the selected river reaches. Sources of these data included Federal agencies, State-level reports, municipal public works facilities, public health surveys, and sanitary surveys. The availability of these data extends back more than a century for most of the selected river reaches and suggests that there is a tremendous opportunity to document the development of nutrient pollution in these river reaches.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2018

A surrogate regression approach for computing continuous loads for the tributary nutrient and sediment monitoring program on the Great Lakes

Water quality (WQ) in many Great Lake tributaries has been degraded (increased nutrient and sediment concentrations) due to changes in their watersheds, resulting in downstream eutrophication. As part of the Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement, specific goals were established for loading of specific constituents (e.g., phosphorus). In 2010, the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative was launched to identify problem areas, accelerate restoration efforts, and track their progress. In 2011, the U.S. Geological Survey established a monitoring program on 30 tributaries to the lakes, representing ~ 46% of the U.S. draining area and the spectrum of land uses. Discrete measurements of nutrients and suspended sediment, and continuous measurements of flow and WQ surrogates (turbidity, temperature, specific conductance, pH, and dissolved oxygen) are being collected in these tributaries to document their WQ and estimate continuous (5-min) loading. To estimate loadings, two regression models were developed for each constituent for each site: one using continuous flow and a seasonality factor; and one using flow, seasonality, and continuous surrogates. Variables included in the final models for each constituent were chosen from the explanatory variables that worked “best” for all sites. In computing loads, when continuous surrogate data were unavailable for short periods, loads were computed using the flow and seasonality models. Prediction intervals for all loads were calculated using results from both models. These results provide a better understanding of short-term variability and long-term changes in loading affecting the environmental health of the Great Lakes than traditional regression techniques that employ only flow and seasonality parameters.

Great Lake↗
USGS1982

Hydrogeologic and water-quality characteristics of the Ironton-Galesville aquifer, southeast Minnesota

Quality of water in the Ironton-Galesville aquifer is generally acceptable for all kinds of uses. Calcium magnesium bicarbonate type water is most common. The dissolved-solids concentration ranges from about 200 to 1,000 milligrams per liter. The lowest values are in the northern part of the aquifer, where the bedrock is at or close to land surface, and the lowest ones are in the southwestern part, where leakage into the aquifer from overlying Cretaceous deposits is highly mineralized water. The concentrations of the major ions, except for bicarbonate and chloride, also increase toward the southwest. Confining beds protect the aquifer from surface pollutants, but high sulfate and iron concentrations and hardness degrade water quality locally in some places. The aquifer was deposited from Paleozoic seas that occupied a shallow depression known as the Hollandale embayment. The surface of the Ironton-Galesville aquifer dips toward the interior of the embayment. The aquifer is as deep as 1,000 feet below land surface and as thick as 325 feet. The Ironton and Galesville Sandstones are both white and medium grained. The aquifer is used mainly in the northern and western parts of the study area, where it is the uppermost bedrock aquifer, This report is one of a series on the hydrogeology and water quality of the 14 principal aquifers in Minnesota prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency requested these studies because of the need for information to develop its Underground Injection Control Program.

Minnesota↗
USGS2014

Assessment of suitable habitat for Phragmites australis (common reed) in the Great Lakes coastal zone

In the Laurentian Great Lakes, the invasive form of Phragmites australis (common reed) poses a threat to highly productive coastal wetlands and shorelines by forming impenetrable stands that outcompete native plants. Large, dominant stands can derail efforts to restore wetland ecosystems degraded by other stressors. To be proactive, landscape-level management of Phragmites requires information on the current spatial distribution of the species and a characterization of areas suitable for future colonization. Using a recent basin-scale map of this invasive plant’s distribution in the U.S. coastal zone of the Great Lakes, environmental data (e.g., soils, nutrients, disturbance, climate, topography), and climate predictions, we performed analyses of current and predicted suitable coastal habitat using boosted regression trees, a type of species distribution modeling. We also investigated differential influences of environmental variables in the upper lakes (Lakes Superior, Michigan, and Huron) and lower lakes (Lakes St. Clair, Erie, and Ontario). Basin-wide results showed that the coastal areas most vulnerable to Phragmites expansion were in close proximity to developed lands and had minimal topographic relief, poorly drained soils, and dense road networks. Elevated nutrients and proximity to agriculture also influenced the distribution of Phragmites . Climate predictions indicated an increase in suitable habitat in coastal Lakes Huron and Michigan in particular. The results of this study, combined with a publicly available online decision support tool, will enable resource managers and restoration practitioners to target and prioritize Phragmites control efforts in the Great Lakes coastal zone.

Great Lakes↗
USGS2014

Groundwater studies: principal aquifer surveys

In 1991, the U.S. Congress established the National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) program within the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to develop nationally consistent long-term datasets and provide information about the quality of the Nation’s streams and groundwater. The USGS uses objective and reliable data, water-quality models, and systematic scientific studies to assess current water-quality conditions, to identify changes in water quality over time, and to determine how natural factors and human activities affect the quality of streams and groundwater. NAWQA is the only non-regulatory Federal program to perform these types of studies; participation is voluntary. In the third decade (Cycle 3) of the NAWQA program (2013–2023), the USGS will evaluate the quality and availability of groundwater for drinking supply, improve our understanding of where and why water quality is degraded, and assess how groundwater quality could respond to changes in climate and land use. These goals will be addressed through the implementation of a new monitoring component in Cycle 3: Principal Aquifer Surveys.

Fact Sheet↗
USGS2014

The future of nearshore processes research

The nearshore is the transition region between land and the continental shelf including (from onshore to offshore) coastal plains, wetlands, estuaries, coastal cliffs, dunes, beaches, surf zones (regions of wave breaking), and the inner shelf (Figure ES-1). Nearshore regions are vital to the national economy, security, commerce, and recreation. The nearshore is dynamically evolving, is often densely populated, and is under increasing threat from sea level rise, long-term erosion, extreme storms, and anthropogenic influences. Worldwide, almost one billion people live at elevations within 10 m of present sea level. Long-term erosion threatens communities, infrastructure, ecosystems, and habitat. Extreme storms can cause billions of dollars of damage. Degraded water quality impacts ecosystem and human health. Nearshore processes, the complex interactions between water, sediment, biota, and humans, must be understood and predicted to manage this often highly developed yet vulnerable nearshore environment. Over the past three decades, the understanding of nearshore processes has improved. However, societal needs are growing with increased coastal urbanization and threats of future climate change, and significant scientific challenges remain. To address these challenges, members of academia, industry, and federal agencies (USGS, USACE, NPS, NOAA, FEMA, ONR) met at the “The Past and Future of Nearshore Processes Research: Reflections on the Sallenger Years and a New Vision for the Future” workshop to develop a nearshore processes research vision where societal needs and science challenges intersect. The resulting vision is comprised of three broad research themes: Long-term coastal evolution due to natural and anthropogenic processes: As global climate change alters the rates of sea level rise and potentially storm patterns and coastal urbanization increases over the coming decades, an understanding of coastal evolution is critical. Improved knowledge of long-term morphological, ecological, and societal processes and their interactions will result in an improved ability to simulate coastal change. This will enable proactive solutions for resilient coasts and better guidance for reducing coastal vulnerability. Extreme Events: Flooding, erosion, and the subsequent recovery: Hurricane Sandy caused flooding and erosion along hundreds of miles of shoreline, flooded New York City, and impacted communities and infrastructure. Overall U.S. coastal extreme event related economic losses have increased substantially. Furthermore, climate change may cause an increase in coastal extreme events and rising sea levels could increase the occurrence of extreme events. Addressing this research theme will result in an improved understanding of the physical processes during extreme events, leading to improved models of flooding, erosion, and recovery. The resulting societal benefit will be more resilient coastal communities. The physical, biological and chemical processes impacting human and ecosystem health: Nearshore regions are used for recreation, tourism, and human habitation, and provide habitat and valuable ecosystem services. These areas must be sustained for future generations, however overall coastal water quality is declining due to microbial pathogens, fertilizers, pesticides, and heavy metal contamination, threatening ecosystem and human health. To ensure sustainable nearshore regions, predictive real-time water- and sediment-based based pollutant modeling capabilities must be developed, which requires expanding our knowledge of the physics, chemistry, and biology of the nearshore. The resulting societal benefits will include better beach safety, healthier ecosystems, and improved mitigation and regulatory policies. The scientists and engineers of the U.S. nearshore community are poised to make significant progress on these research themes, which have significant societal impact. The U.S. nearshore community, including academic, government, and industry colleagues, recommends multi-agency investment into a coordinated development of observational and modeling research infrastructure to address these themes, as discussed in the whitepaper. The observational infrastructure should include development of new sensors and methods, focused observational programs, and expanded nearshore observing systems. The modeling infrastructure should include improved process representation, better model coupling, incorporation of data assimilation techniques, and testing of real-time models. The observations will provide test beds to compare and improve models.

Report↗
USGS1981

Water resources of the Clarion River and Redbank Creek basins, northwestern Pennsylvania

The Clarion River and Redbank Creek basin occupy 1,280 and 545 square miles, respectively, in northwatern Pennsylvania. The area is mostly in Clerion, Elk, and Jefferson Counties and is approximately 70 miles long and 30 miles wide. All drainage is to the Allegheny River. Sedimentary rocks of Late Devionian Early Mississippian, and Pennsylvanian age underlie the area. Rocks of Late Devonian age underlie the entire area and crop out in the deep stream valleys in the north. Lower Mississippian rocks generally crop out in strips along major stream valleys; the strips are narrow in the south and broaden northward. Pennsylvanian rocks cover most of the interfluvial areas between major streams. The Upper Devonian and Lower Mississippian rocks are composed mostly of alternating sandstone and shale. Sandstone may intertongue laterally with shale. The Pennsylvanian rocks are most heterogeneous and contain many commercial coal beds. The major mineral resources are bituminous coal, petroleum, and natural gas. Narly all coal production is from strip mining in Clarion, Elk, and Jefferson Counties. Total coal production exceeded 8 million short tons in 1976. The basins are south and east of the major oil-producing regions in Pennsylvania, but more than 50,000 barrels of crude oil were produced here in 1975. Commercial quantities of natural gas are also obtained. Thirty-three public water-supply systems furnish about two-thirds of the water for domestic use. Surface water is the source of about 90 percent of public-supply water. The remainder is from wells and springs. In an average year, 64 percent of the precipitation in the Clarion River basin and 60 percent in the Redbank Creek basin leave the area as streamflow. The percentage of annuual discharge from each basin that is base runoff averaged 53 and 51 percent, respectively, during 1972-75. Only 4 of 10 stream-gaging stations recorded an average 10-year, 7-consecutive day low flow of at least 0.15 cubic feet per second per square mile. Most wells are completed on bedrock. Yields of bedrock wells are affected mostly by rock type, type of overburden, topography, depth of water-bearing zones, and by the rate and duration of pumping. Water in the bedrock occurs chiefly along fractures and bedding planes. Most wells get water from several zones. Yielding zones occur less frequently as depth increases, but are reported as much as 400 feet below land surface. Optimum well depth is about 350 feet. Well yields range from less than 1 to more than 550 gallons per minute. The best bedrock aquifers are the Lower Mississippian rocks, which have a median specific capacity of 4.3 gallons per minute per foot of drawdown compared to median between 0.38 and 0.67 in the Conemaugh, Allegheny, and Pottsville Groups. The major water-qualitty problems are due to high concentrations of iron, manganese, hardness, and acidity. Some of these problems are related to coal mining that has degraded water quality in parts of Clarion, Clearfield, Elk, and Jefferson Counties. Water-quality problems result from the rock composition. Many streams have low alkalinity concentrations and, consequently, have little capacity to neutralize the acid water from coal mines. Large forested areas, with little development, in Elk, Forest, and Jefferson Counties, have good quality water. The water from over three-quarters of the bedrock wells sampled has dissolved-solids concentratins less than 250 milligrams per liter. Water from aqufers of Pennsylvanian age is generally lower in dissolved solids than that from Lower Mississippian aquifers. Salt water is not a problem, except locally in Devonian rocks. Water from wells on hilltops is generally of better quality than that from wells in valleys (median dissolved solids 140 versus 340 millgrams per liter). In many valleys in Clarion and Jefferson Counties, old abandoned flowing oil and gas wells contribute high

Open-File Report↗
USGS1999

Characterization of selected biological, chemical, and physical conditions at fixed sites in the Upper Colorado River Basin, Colorado, 1995-98

Biological community samples were collected at 15 sites in the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCOL) in Colorado as part of the National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program. Sites sampled in two physiographic provinces, the Southern Rocky Mountains and the Colorado Plateau, represented agriculture, mining, urban and recreation, and mixed land uses and background conditions. Nine measures of water quality, which include information on nutrients, specific conductance (a surrogate for salinity), trace elements in streambed sediment, pesticides in fish tissue, fish communities, and macroinvertebrate richness and composition and stream habitat were used for comparisons among sites within the two physiographic provinces. Sampling sites from three other NAWQA study units—the Rio Grande Valley, the South Platte River Basin, and the Upper Snake River Basin study units—were categorized on the basis of land use and stream size in order to develop a larger data set for comparison to sites in the UCOL. Three categories of land use—forested (includes mining, urban and recreation, and background), agriculture, and mixed—were used for comparison to the UCOL fixed sites. Results indicated that all sites other than the Colorado River below Baker Gulch (a background site) showed some water-quality characteristics to be significantly affected. Results indicated that the concentrations of cadmium and zinc in streambed sediment at mining land-use sites in the Southern Rocky Mountains physiographic province generally were orders of magnitude higher than streambed-sediment concentrations at the background site. Streambed-sediment concentrations at mining land-use sites in the UCOL were greater than the 75 th percentile of concentrations from sites in the three other NAWQA study units. Fish communities and habitat conditions were degraded at mining land-use sites compared to the background site. Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera (EPT) richness and the percentage of EPT were lower at mining land-use sites than at the background site and were less than the 50 th percentile of those for sites from the three other NAWQA study units. Nutrient concentrations at urban and recreation sites in the Southern Rocky Mountain physiographic province generally were greater than concentrations at the background site and generally were between the 25 th and 90 th percentile of concentrations for sites from the three other NAWQA study units. Habitat conditions and fish communities at urban and recreation sites were slightly degraded compared to the background site. EPT richness and the percentage of EPT were lower at urban and recreation sites than at the background site and were between the 25 th and 75 th percentile of those for sites from the three other NAWQA study units. The percentage of Chironomidae, which may be indicative of pollutant-tolerant organisms, was higher at urban and recreation sites than at the background site. Mixed land-use sites in the Southern Rocky Mountains physiographic province had similar nutrient concentrations and similar cadmium and zinc streambed-sediment concentrations. Fish-community degradation index values were very different among the three mixed land-use sites in the Southern Rocky Mountains physiographic province. Larger percentages of omnivores and anomalies such as lesions and deformities at two mixed land-use sites resulted in higher degradation values of the fish community. Agriculture land-use sites had higher concentrations of nutrients and selenium than the background site in the Colorado Plateau physiographic province. Concentrations of p,p '-DDE in fish tissue at agriculture sites were higher than the 75 th percentile of concentrations for sites from the three other NAWQA study units. Fish communities had degradation values near the 75 th percentile for agriculture sites. The percentage of EPT was low at agriculture sites when compared to the background site. Two mixed land-use sites in the Colorado Plateau physiographic province had similar concentrations of nutrients, selenium, and p,p '-DDE, and similar EPT richness and composition. These two sites were located downstream from agricultural and urban activities. Some water-quality measures at these two sites indicated degradation compared to a mixed land-use site upstream from most of the agriculture and urban activities in the Colorado Plateau physiographic province.

Colorado↗
USGS2021

Groundwater quality of aquifers overlying the Oxnard Oil Field, Ventura County, California

Groundwater samples collected from irrigation, monitoring, and municipal supply wells near the Oxnard Oil Field were analyzed for chemical and isotopic tracers to evaluate if thermogenic gas or water from hydrocarbon-bearing formations have mixed with surrounding groundwater. New and historical data show no evidence of water from hydrocarbon-bearing formations in groundwater overlying the field. However, thermogenic gas mixed with microbial methane was detected in 5 wells at concentrations ranging from 0.011–9.1 mg/L. The presence of these gases at concentrations <10 mg/L do not indicate degraded water quality posing a known health risk. Analysis of carbon isotopes (δ 13 C-CH 4 ) and hydrogen isotopes (δ 2 H-CH 4 ) of methane and ratios of methane to heavier hydrocarbon gases were used to differentiate sources of methane between a) microbial, b) thermogenic or c) mixed sources. Results indicate that microbial-sourced methane is widespread in the study area, and concentrations overlap with those from thermogenic sources. The highest concentrations of thermogenic gas were observed in proximity to relatively high density of oil wells, large injection volumes of water disposal and cyclic steam, shallow oil development, and hydrocarbon shows in sediments overlying the producing oil reservoirs. Depths of water wells containing thermogenic gas were within approximately 200 m of the top of the Vaca Tar Sand production zone (approximately 600 m below land surface). Due to the limited sampling density, the source and pathways of thermogenic gas detected in groundwater could not be conclusively determined. Thermogenic gas detected in the absence of co-occurring water from hydrocarbon-bearing formations may result from natural gas migration over geologic time from the Vaca Tar Sand or deeper formations, hydrocarbon shows in sediments overlying producing zones, and/or gas leaking from oil-field infrastructure. Denser sampling of groundwater, potential end-members, and pressure monitoring could help better distinguish pathways of thermogenic gases.

California↗
USGS2020

Trends in oyster populations in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico: An assessment of river discharge and fishing effects over time and space

Within the Big Bend region of the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, one of the least developed coastlines in the continental USA, intertidal and subtidal populations of eastern oyster Crassostrea virginica (hereafter referred to as “oyster”) are a critical ecosystem and important economic constituent. We assessed trends in intertidal oyster populations, river discharge, and commercial fishing activity in the Suwannee River estuary within the Big Bend region using fisheries‐independent data from irregular monitoring efforts and publicly available environmental data. We used generalized linear models to evaluate counts of oysters from line‐transect surveys over time and space. We assessed model performance using simulation to understand potential bias and then evaluated whether these counts were related to freshwater inputs from the Suwannee River and commercial oyster fishing effort and landings at different time lags. We found that intertidal oyster counts have declined over time and that most of these declines are found in inshore intertidal oyster bars, which are becoming degraded. We also found a significant relationship between oyster counts and a 1‐year lag on mean daily Suwannee River discharge, but including commercial fishery trips or landings did not improve model fit. It is unclear whether declines in intertidal oyster bars are offset by formation of new oyster reefs elsewhere. These results quantify rapid declines in intertidal oyster reefs in a region of coastline with high conservation value that can be used to inform ongoing and proposed restoration projects in the region.

Florida↗
USGS2016

Influence of vertical and lateral heat transfer on permafrost thaw, peatland landscape transition, and groundwater flow

Recent climate change has reduced the spatial extent and thickness of permafrost in many discontinuous permafrost regions. Rapid permafrost thaw is producing distinct landscape changes in the Taiga Plains of the Northwest Territories, Canada. As permafrost bodies underlying forested peat plateaus shrink, the landscape slowly transitions into unforested wetlands. The expansion of wetlands has enhanced the hydrologic connectivity of many watersheds via new surface and near-surface flow paths, and increased streamflow has been observed. Furthermore, the decrease in forested peat plateaus results in a net loss of boreal forest and associated ecosystems. This study investigates fundamental processes that contribute to permafrost thaw by comparing observed and simulated thaw development and landscape transition of a peat plateau-wetland complex in the Northwest Territories, Canada from 1970 to 2012. Measured climate data are first used to drive surface energy balance simulations for the wetland and peat plateau. Near-surface soil temperatures simulated in the surface energy balance model are then applied as the upper boundary condition to a three-dimensional model of subsurface water flow and coupled energy transport with freeze-thaw. Simulation results demonstrate that lateral heat transfer, which is not considered in many permafrost models, can influence permafrost thaw rates. Furthermore, the simulations indicate that landscape evolution arising from permafrost thaw acts as a positive feedback mechanism that increases the energy absorbed at the land surface and produces additional permafrost thaw. The modeling results also demonstrate that flow rates in local groundwater flow systems may be enhanced by the degradation of isolated permafrost bodies.

Northwest Territories↗
USGS2021

Multiple climate change-driven tipping points for coastal systems

As the climate evolves over the next century, the interaction of accelerating sea level rise (SLR) and storms, combined with confining development and infrastructure, will place greater stresses on physical, ecological, and human systems along the ocean-land margin. Many of these valued coastal systems could reach “tipping points,” at which hazard exposure substantially increases and threatens the present-day form, function, and viability of communities, infrastructure, and ecosystems. Determining the timing and nature of these tipping points is essential for effective climate adaptation planning. Here we present a multidisciplinary case study from Santa Barbara, California (USA), to identify potential climate change-related tipping points for various coastal systems. This study integrates numerical and statistical models of the climate, ocean water levels, beach and cliff evolution, and two soft sediment ecosystems, sandy beaches and tidal wetlands. We find that tipping points for beaches and wetlands could be reached with just 0.25 m or less of SLR (~ 2050), with > 50% subsequent habitat loss that would degrade overall biodiversity and ecosystem function. In contrast, the largest projected changes in socioeconomic exposure to flooding for five communities in this region are not anticipated until SLR exceeds 0.75 m for daily flooding and 1.5 m for storm-driven flooding (~ 2100 or later). These changes are less acute relative to community totals and do not qualify as tipping points given the adaptive capacity of communities. Nonetheless, the natural and human built systems are interconnected such that the loss of natural system function could negatively impact the quality of life of residents and disrupt the local economy, resulting in indirect socioeconomic impacts long before built infrastructure is directly impacted by flooding.

California↗
USGS2018

Multi-scale effects of land cover and urbanization on the habitat suitability of an endangered toad

Habitat degradation, entwined with land cover change, is a major driver of biodiversity loss. Effects of land cover change on species can be direct (when habitat is converted to alternative land cover types) or indirect (when land outside of the species habitat is altered). Hydrologic and ecological connections between terrestrial and aquatic systems are well understood, exemplifying how spatially disparate land cover conditions may influence aquatic habitats, but are rarely examined. We sought to quantify relative effects of land cover at two different but interacting scales on habitat suitability for the endangered arroyo toad ( Anaxyrus californicus ). Based on an existing distribution model for the arroyo toad and available land cover data, we estimated effects of land cover along streams and within entire watersheds on habitat suitability using structural equation modeling. Relationships between land cover and habitat suitability differed between scales, and broader, watershed-scale conditions influenced land cover along the embedded stream networks. We found anthropogenic development and forest cover at the watershed-scale negatively impacted habitat suitability, but development along stream networks was positively associated with suitability. The positive association between development along streams and habitat suitability may be attributable to increased spatial heterogeneity along urbanized streams, or related factors including policies designed to conserve riparian habitats amidst development. These findings show arroyo toad habitat is influenced by land cover across multiple scales, and can inform conservation of the species. Furthermore, our methodology can help elucidate similar dynamics with other taxa, particularly those reliant on both terrestrial and aquatic environments.

California↗
USGS2012

The United States National Climate Assessment - Alaska Technical Regional Report

The Alaskan landscape is changing, both in terms of effects of human activities as a consequence of increased population, social and economic development and their effects on the local and broad landscape; and those effects that accompany naturally occurring hazards such as volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, and tsunamis. Some of the most prevalent changes, however, are those resulting from a changing climate, with both near term and potential upcoming effects expected to continue into the future. Alaska's average annual statewide temperatures have increased by nearly 4&deg;F from 1949 to 2005, with significant spatial variability due to the large latitudinal and longitudinal expanse of the State. Increases in mean annual temperature have been greatest in the interior region, and smallest in the State's southwest coastal regions. In general, however, trends point toward increases in both minimum temperatures, and in fewer extreme cold days. Trends in precipitation are somewhat similar to those in temperature, but with more variability. On the whole, Alaska saw a 10-percent increase in precipitation from 1949 to 2005, with the greatest increases recorded in winter. The National Climate Assessment has designated two well-established scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Nakicenovic and others, 2001) as a minimum set that technical and author teams considered as context in preparing portions of this assessment. These two scenarios are referred to as the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A2 and B1 scenarios, which assume either a continuation of recent trends in fossil fuel use (A2) or a vigorous global effort to reduce fossil fuel use (B1). Temperature increases from 4 to 22&deg;F are predicted (to 2070-2099) depending on which emissions scenario (A2 or B1) is used with the least warming in southeast Alaska and the greatest in the northwest. Concomitant with temperature changes, by the end of the 21st century the growing season is expected to lengthen by 15-25 days in some areas of Alaska, with much of that corresponding with earlier spring snow melt. Future projections of precipitation (30-80 years) over Alaska show an increase across the State, with the largest changes in the northwest and smallest in the southeast. Because of increasing temperatures and growing season length, however, increased precipitation may not correspond with increased water availability, due to temperature related increased evapotranspiration. The extent of snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere has decreased by about 10 percent since the late 1960s, with stronger trends noted since the late 1980s. Alaska has experienced similar trends, with a strong decrease in snow cover extent occurring in May. When averaged across the State, the disappearance of snow in the spring has occurred from 4 to 6 days earlier per decade, and snow return in fall has occurred approximately 2 days later per decade. This change appears to be driven by climate warming rather than a decrease in winter precipitation, with average winter temperatures also increasing by about 2.5&deg;F. The extent of sea ice has been declining, as has been widely published in both national and scientific media outlets, and is projected to continue to decline during this century. The observed decline in annual sea ice minimum extent (September) has occurred more rapidly than was predicted by climate models and has been accompanied by decreases in ice thickness and in the presence of multi-year ice. This decrease was first documented by satellite imagery in the late 1970s for the Bering and Chukchi Seas, and is projected to continue, with the potential for the disappearance of summer sea ice by mid- to late century. A new phenomenon that was not reported in previous assessments is ocean acidification. Uptake of carbon dioxide (CO2) by oceans has a significant effect on marine biogeochemistry by reducing seawater pH. Ocean acidification is of particular concern in Alaska, because cold sea water absorbs CO2 more rapidly than warm water, and a decrease in sea ice extent has allowed increased sea surface exposure and more uptake of CO2 into these northern waters. Ocean acidification will likely affect the ability of organisms to produce and maintain shell material, such as aragonite or calcite (calcium carbonate minerals structured from carbonate ions), required by many shelled organism, from mollusks to corals to microscopic organisms at the base of the food chain. Direct biological effects in Alaska further along the food chain have yet to be studied and may vary among organisms. Some of the potentially most significant changes to Alaska that could result from a changing climate are the effects on the terrestrial cryosphere - particularly glaciers and permafrost. Alaskan glaciers are changing at a rapid rate, the primary driver appearing to be temperature. Statewide, glaciers lost 13 cubic miles of ice annually from the 1950s to the 1990s, and that rate doubled in the 2000s. However, like temperature and precipitation, glacier ice loss is not spatially uniform; most glaciers are losing mass, yet some are growing (for example Hubbard Glacier in southeast Alaska). Alaska glaciers with the most rapid loss are those terminating in sea water or lakes. With this increasing rate of melt, the contribution of surplus fresh water entering into the oceans from Alaska's glaciers, as well as those in neighboring British Columbia, Canada, is approximately 20 percent of that contributed by the Greenland Ice Sheet. Permafrost degradation (that is, the thawing of ice-rich soils) is currently (2012) impacting infrastructure and surface-water availability in areas of both discontinuous and continuous ground ice. Over most of the State, the permafrost is warming, with increasing temperatures broadly consistent with increasing air temperatures. On the Arctic coastal plain of Alaska, permafrost temperatures showed some cooling in the 1950s and 1960s but have been followed by a roughly 5&deg;F increase since the 1980s. Many areas in the continuous permafrost zone have seen increases in temperature in the seasonally active layer and a decrease in re-freezing rates. Changes in the discontinuous permafrost zone are initially much more observable due to the resulting thermokarst terrain (land surface formed as ice rich permafrost thaws), most notable in boreal forested areas. Climate warming in Alaska has potentially broad implications for human health and food security, especially in rural areas, as well as increased risk for injury with changing winter ice conditions. Additionally, such warming poses the potential for increasing damage to existing water and sanitation facilities and challenges for development of new facilities, especially in areas underlain by permafrost. Non-infectious and infectious diseases also are becoming an increasing concern. For example, from 1999 to 2006 there was a statistically significant increase in medical claims for insectbite reactions in five of six regions of Alaska, with the largest percentage increase occurring in the most northern areas. The availability and quality of subsistence foods, normally considered to be very healthy, may change due to changing access, changing habitats, and spoilage of meat in food storage cellars. These and other trends and potential outcomes resulting from a changing climate are further described in this report. In addition, we describe new science leadership activities that have been initiated to address and provide guidance toward conducting research aimed at making available information for policy makers and land management agencies to better understand, address, and plan for changes to the local and regional environment. This report cites data in both metric and standard units due to the contributions by numerous authors and the direct reference of their data.

Alaska↗
USGS2002

Monitoring dust storms and mapping landscape vulnerability to wind erosion using satellite and ground-based digital images

Wind-induced dust emission in the southwestern United States is important regionally because of its impact on human health and safety and its influence on ecosystem dynamics. Factors that control dust emission include wind velocity, sediment availability, and surface conditions (e.g., vegetation type and degree of cover, surface crusts and armoring, and soil moisture - Gillette and Passi, 1988; Gillette and Hanson 1989; Marticorena and others, 1997). Emission of dust from the land surface is a process of degradation that depletes fine-grained minerals needed for optimum vegetation growth, creates potentially hazardous air quality for humans on a local and regional scale, and can affect climate on a regional and global scale. Future climatic change may lead to increased aridification of southwestern deserts, reducing protective vegetation and enhancing dust emissions, thereby increasing the impacts of dust in this region. It is currently not well understood how climate change in the Southwest will affect dust emission and, in turn, how dust emission will affect climate and human health. As part of a study of landscape vulnerability to wind erosion and the potential impacts of dust, we are investigating remotely sensed satellite, airborne, and ground-based image data to determine their ability to detect and monitor active dust storms, as well as to map areas vulnerable to wind erosion. A main objective has been to investigate the use of high temporal resolution digital images collected by satellite and a long-term, ground-based digital camera station, along with wind data collected at our field sites, to detect, monitor, and analyze the location, size, frequency, duration, and transport patterns of dust storms in the Mojave Desert of the southwestern United States. Generally, many current methods and instruments are not developed to the level required to routinely detect and monitor dust storms or to develop models that accurately predict total dust flux and emission rates. Improving these capabilities is critical to generating baseline datasets for assessments of landscape vulnerability to future climate change. On going modeling efforts are attempting to identify meteorological parameters and soil surface roughness parameters needed to predict the vulnerability of various geomorphic substrates to wind erosion. Datasets to calibrate model results are difficult to collect and typically not available. Results of our studies, incorporating digital image maps and new methods using remotely sensed images to identify and monitor dust sources, will be useful for the calibration of dust-emission models of the Mojave Desert and other arid environments. At the same time, we are exploring new methods to map the amount, sizes, and spatial distribution of particles at the surface to enable detailed wind-erosion vulnerability mapping at a regional scale.

California↗
USGS1997

Transport and transformations of chlorinated-solvent contamination in a saprolite and fractured rock aquifer near a former wastewater-treatment plant, Greenville, South Carolina

The transport and fate of chlorinated-ethene contamination was investigated in a fractured-rock aquifer downgradient from a wastewater-treatment plant at a gas-turbine manufacturing facility in Greenville, South Carolina. A vapor-diffusion-sampler technique, developed for this investigation, located fracture zones that discharged contaminated ground water to surface water. The distribution of chlorinated compounds and sulfate, comparison of borehole geophysical data, driller's logs, and the aquifer response to pumpage allowed subsurface contaminant-transport pathways to be delineated.The probable contaminant-transport pathway from the former aeration lagoon was southward. The probable pathway of contaminant transport from the former sludge lagoon was southward to and beneath Little Rocky Creek. South of the creek, the major pathway of contaminant transport appeared to be at a depth of approximately 80 to 107 feet below land surface. The contaminant-transport pathway from the former industrial lagoon was not readily discernible from existing data. A laboratory investigation, as well as examination of ground- water-chemistry data collected during this investigation and concentrations of chlorinated compounds collected during previous investigations,indicates that higher chlorinated compounds are being degraded to lower-chlorinated compounds in the contaminated aquifer. The approaches used in this investigation, as well as the findings, have potential application to other fractured-rock aquifers contaminated by chlorinated ethenes.

South Carolina↗