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Results for “Journal of Applied Statistics”

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166 records · Page 10Linked to original sources
USGS2015

Evaluating a satellite-based seasonal evapotranspiration product and identifying its relationship with other satellite-derived products and crop yield: A case study for Ethiopia

Satellite-derived evapotranspiration anomalies and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) products from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data are currently used for African agricultural drought monitoring and food security status assessment. In this study, a process to evaluate satellite-derived evapotranspiration (ETa) products with a geospatial statistical exploratory technique that uses NDVI, satellite-derived rainfall estimate (RFE), and crop yield data has been developed. The main goal of this study was to evaluate the ETa using the NDVI and RFE, and identify a relationship between the ETa and Ethiopia’s cereal crop (i.e., teff, sorghum, corn/maize, barley, and wheat) yields during the main rainy season. Since crop production is one of the main factors affecting food security, the evaluation of remote sensing-based seasonal ETa was done to identify the appropriateness of this tool as a proxy for monitoring vegetation condition in drought vulnerable and food insecure areas to support decision makers. The results of this study showed that the comparison between seasonal ETa and RFE produced strong correlation ( R 2 > 0.99) for all 41 crop growing zones in Ethiopia. The results of the spatial regression analyses of seasonal ETa and NDVI using Ordinary Least Squares and Geographically Weighted Regression showed relatively weak yearly spatial relationships ( R 2 < 0.7) for all cropping zones. However, for each individual crop zones, the correlation between NDVI and ETa ranged between 0.3 and 0.84 for about 44% of the cropping zones. Similarly, for each individual crop zones, the correlation ( R 2 ) between the seasonal ETa anomaly and de-trended cereal crop yield was between 0.4 and 0.82 for 76% (31 out of 41) of the crop growing zones. The preliminary results indicated that the ETa products have a good predictive potential for these 31 identified zones in Ethiopia. Decision makers may potentially use ETa products for monitoring cereal crop yields and early warning of food insecurity during drought years for these identified zones.

International Journal of Applied Earth Observation↗
USGS2005

Estimation of nutrient sources and transport for New Zealand using the hybrid mechanistic-statistical model SPARROW

The hybrid mechanistic-statistical catchment model SPARROW was applied to predict the mean annual load of nitrogen and phosphorus in streams throughout New Zealand (270,000 km2). The loads from land areas, point sources, and erosion are routed through the drainage network (576,300 reaches) with first-order stream decay and attenuation in lakes and reservoirs. Model parameters were determined by calibration against loads measured in the national water quality network (77 sites). For nitrogen, the model predicted the measured loads well (R2 of 0.956 and RMSE of 0.33 in natural-log space), while for phosphorus the model fit was not as good (R2 of 0.900 and RMSE of 0.58). The predictions of exported yields for streams with catchments > 20 km2 are broadly comparable with previous compilations of yields for various land-use classes for nitrogen, but are larger than the previous measurements for phosphorus. The calibrated stream attenuation and lake/reservoir rates were broadly consistent with previous measurements. The predicted load of total nitrogen (TN) delivered to the coast was 167,700 t yr-1, which is 45% of the loads entering the streams. For total phosphorus (TP) the predicted load to the coast was 63,100 t yr-1, 44% of the load entering the streams. Reservoir/lake attenuation makes a relatively small contribution to the overall attenuation compared with in-stream attenuation (3.5% for nitrogen and 8.5% for phosphorus). The largest contribution of total nitrogen is from pastoral land uses, together accounting for 70% of the total nitrogen load to the coast. Land used for dairying makes a disproportionately large contribution to the load of total nitrogen in relation to the area of land (37% of the load versus 6.8% of the land). For total phosphorus, the highest contribution of the load to the coast is from erosion (53.2%). Point sources contribute only a small proportion of the load to the coast (3.2% for nitrogen, 1.8% for total phosphorus). The monitoring network does not include streams with catchments smaller than 10 km2, so model predictions for streams smaller than 10 km2 should be used with caution. ?? New Zealand Hydrological Society (2005).

Journal of Hydrology New Zealand↗
USGS2009

Hydrochemical analysis of groundwater using multivariate statistical methods - The Volta region, Ghana

Q and R-mode multivariate statistical analyses were applied to groundwater chemical data from boreholes and wells in the northern section of the Volta region Ghana. The objective was to determine the processes that affect the hydrochemistry and the variation of these processes in space among the three main geological terrains: the Buem formation, Voltaian System and the Togo series that underlie the area. The analyses revealed three zones in the groundwater flow system: recharge, intermediate and discharge regions. All three zones are clearly different with respect to all the major chemical parameters, with concentrations increasing from the perceived recharge areas through the intermediate regions to the discharge areas. R-mode HCA and factor analysis (using varimax rotation and Kaiser Criterion) were then applied to determine the significant sources of variation in the hydrochemistry. This study finds that groundwater hydrochemistry in the area is controlled by the weathering of silicate and carbonate minerals, as well as the chemistry of infiltrating precipitation. This study finds that the ??D and ?? 18 O data from the area fall along the Global Meteoric Water Line (GMWL). An equation of regression derived for the relationship between ??D and ?? 18 O bears very close semblance to the equation which describes the GMWL. On the basis of this, groundwater in the study area is probably meteoric and fresh. The apparently low salinities and sodicities of the groundwater seem to support this interpretation. The suitability of groundwater for domestic and irrigation purposes is related to its source, which determines its constitution. A plot of the sodium adsorption ratio (SAR) and salinity (EC) data on a semilog axis, suggests that groundwater serves good irrigation quality in the area. Sixty percent (60%), 20% and 20% of the 67 data points used in this study fall within the medium salinity - low sodicity (C2-S1), low salinity -low sodicity (C1-S1) and high salinity - low sodicity (C3-S1) fields, which ascribe good irrigation quality to groundwater from this area. Salinities range from 28.1 to 1956 ??S/cm, whilst SAR values fall within the range 0-3. Extremely low sodicity waters of this kind, with salinities lower than 600 ??S/cm, have the tendency to affect the dispersive properties of irrigation soils when used for irrigation. About 50% of the groundwater in the study area fall within this category and need prior treatment before usage. ?? 2009 Korean Society of Civil Engineers and Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg GmbH.

KSCE Journal of Civil Engineering↗
USGS2013

A statistical analysis of the global historical volcanic fatalities record

A new database of volcanic fatalities is presented and analysed, covering the period 1600 to 2010 AD. Data are from four sources: the Smithsonian Institution, Witham (2005), CRED EM-DAT and Munich RE. The data were combined and formatted, with a weighted average fatality figure used where more than one source reports an event; the former two databases were weighted twice as strongly as the latter two. More fatal incidents are contained within our database than similar previous works; approximately 46% of the fatal incidents are listed in only one of the four sources, and fewer than 10% are in all four. 278,880 fatalities are recorded in the database, resultant from 533 fatal incidents. The fatality count is dominated by a handful of disasters, though the majority of fatal incidents have caused fewer than ten fatalities. Number and empirical probability of fatalities are broadly correlated with VEI, but are more strongly influenced by population density around volcanoes and the occurrence and extent of lahars (mudflows) and pyroclastic density currents, which have caused 50% of fatalities. Indonesia, the Philippines, and the West Indies dominate the spatial distribution of fatalities, and there is some negative correlation between regional development and number of fatalities. With the largest disasters removed, over 90% of fatalities occurred between 5 km and 30 km from volcanoes, though the most devastating eruptions impacted far beyond these distances. A new measure, the Volcano Fatality Index, is defined to explore temporal changes in societal vulnerability to volcanic hazards. The measure incorporates population growth and recording improvements with the fatality data, and shows prima facie evidence that vulnerability to volcanic hazards has fallen during the last two centuries. Results and interpretations are limited in scope by the underlying fatalities data, which are affected by under-recording, uncertainty, and bias. Attempts have been made to estimate the extent of these issues, and to remove their effects where possible. The data analysed here are provided as supplementary material. An updated version of the Smithsonian fatality database fully integrated with this database will be publicly available in the near future and subsequently incorporate new data.

Journal of Applied Volcanology↗