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Results for “Frontiers in Earth Science”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

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USGS2026

Decadal trends and occurrence of geogenic constituents and mixtures in groundwater across the continental United States

Worldwide, about 50% of the population is served by groundwater-sourced drinking water. Numerous groundwater quality assessments have found that geogenic constituents are among the most common contaminants in drinking-water aquifers. Documenting changing groundwater quality is a crucial aspect of water availability assessments. We assess trends and occurrence of geogenic constituent concentrations in groundwater across the continental United States using 3 decades of data from the U.S. Geological Survey’s National Water Quality Network. Thousands of groundwater wells were grouped into agricultural, urban, or domestic supply network types. Although most networks and constituents had no statistically significant change in concentration, many had increasing concentration trends, elevated concentrations, or both. Lithium, sodium, radium, sulfate, and uranium had increasing trends in more than 10% of the study networks. Urban and domestic well networks had increasing lithium and sodium trends more often than agricultural networks. Manganese most commonly increased in domestic well networks; uranium more commonly increased in agricultural and urban networks. Elevated concentration mixtures were widespread, and mixture complexities appeared to increase over time. Our results indicate that more than 2.3 million domestic-well users may be affected by elevated concentrations of one or more geogenic constituents.

continental United States↗
USGS2025

Quantitative subsurface characterization illuminates the origin of the Quaternary Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer

The Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer (MRVA) is vital to U.S. food security and global agricultural supply. However, quantitative understanding of its Quaternary origin, architecture, and hydrologic function remains incomplete. Here we develop a three-dimensional hydrostratigraphic model to characterize the deposition of clay and silt, fine-medium sands, and graveliferous sands using lithologic data from 75,000 boreholes compiled across the Lower Mississippi Valley and a geostatistical method—interval kriging. We find that cyclic glacial entrenchments, evidenced by remnants of pre-Wisconsinan postglacial sediments, alongside geodynamic activities shaped the MRVA basal configuration. Stratal weakening from faulting and salt diapirism enhanced glacial incision and thereby produced abrupt aquifer thickening. We demarcate the top of graveliferous sands as the regional marker of the Pleistocene-Holocene transition. The MRVA hydrostratigraphy reveals hydrologic function and geologic controls on groundwater storage and quality, advancing the assessment of aquifer sustainability under a changing climate, with implications for alluvial aquifers globally.

Arkansas, Illinois, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississip↗
USGS2024

Metal mobilization from thawing permafrost to aquatic ecosystems is driving rusting of Arctic streams

Climate change in the Arctic is altering watershed hydrologic processes and biogeochemistry. Here, we present an emergent threat to Arctic watersheds based on observations from 75 streams in Alaska’s Brooks Range that recently turned orange, reflecting increased loading of iron and toxic metals. Using remote sensing, we constrain the timing of stream discoloration to the last 10 years, a period of rapid warming and snowfall, suggesting impairment is likely due to permafrost thaw. Thawing permafrost can foster chemical weathering of minerals, microbial reduction of soil iron, and groundwater transport of metals to streams. Compared to clear reference streams, orange streams have lower pH, higher turbidity, and higher sulfate, iron, and trace metal concentrations, supporting sulfide mineral weathering as a primary mobilization process. Stream discoloration was associated with dramatic declines in macroinvertebrate diversity and fish abundance. These findings have considerable implications for drinking water supplies and subsistence fisheries in rural Alaska.

Alaska↗
USGS2025

Integrating marine historical ecology into management of Alaska’s Pacific cod fishery for climate readiness

The Pacific cod ( Gadus macrocephalus ) fishery was closed in 2020 after a rapid decline in biomass caused by the marine heat waves of 2014–2019. Pacific cod are exceptionally thermally sensitive and management of this fishery is now challenged by increasingly unpredictable climate conditions. Fisheries monitoring is critical for climate readiness, but short-term monitoring data may be inadequate for recognizing and anticipating change under rapid climate changes. We propose an interdisciplinary, marine historical ecology framework that looks to long-term records (local and traditional knowledge, history, archaeology, and paleoclimatology) to capture a long range of ecological variability and provide historical context for management. In order to connect to contemporary fisheries management, this framework must be built on a common vocabulary and an understanding of the key metrics used in fisheries stock assessments. Here, we propose metrics derived from Pacific cod stock assessment and synthesize information relevant to understanding the effects of past warming periods on cod populations across the Gulf of Alaska and Bering Sea. This case study provides a framework for thinking about how to use these historical records in the context of fisheries management under rapidly changing climate conditions.

Alaska↗
USGS2026

Revisiting the utility of regional-scale, high-quality geophysical data in mineral exploration - A case study featuring the Mammoth Magnetic Anomaly, Pinal County, Arizona

Regional aeromagnetic surveys passively measure the total magnetic intensity (TMI) and are a foundational tool used in mineral exploration (Airo, 2015). With the increased global demand and the number of critical mineral resources required for manufacturing high-tech devices, developing high-quality, regional-scale geophysical surveys could aid critical mineral exploration efforts and geologic mapping. In 2019, the U. S. Geological Survey launched the Earth Mapping Resources Initiative (Earth MRI) to modernize the geologic and geophysical mapping of regions that have the potential to contain critical mineral resources within the United States. In support of planning Earth MRI geophysical surveys, Drenth and Grauch (2019) defined five aeromagnetic data quality rankings (rank 1 through rank 5) applying them to the airborne geophysical survey inventory of the United States (Johnson et al., 2021). Rank 1 aeromagnetic surveys are of the highest quality, meeting modern standards and allowing best practices for qualitative and quantitative interpretation; whereas rank 5 aeromagnetic surveys are of the lowest quality, being useful only for qualitative interpretation of broad features. Through the Earth MRI effort, 48 high-quality, regional-scale rank 1 and 2 airborne magnetic and radiometric geophysical surveys have been planned, collected, or publicly release through May 2025 (U. S. Geological Survey, 2025). Here, a portion of a rank 1 Earth MRI aeromagnetic survey in southeast Arizona is presented and compared to a legacy rank 5 aeromagnetic survey over the Mammoth Magnetic Anomaly (MMA), demonstrating how modern, high-quality aeromagnetic data improves our view of crustal geology, aiding mineral exploration.

Arizona↗
USGS2026

Hydrological control on soil redox condition and carbon loss of coastal wetland under sea-kevel rise

Coastal wetlands are critical carbon sinks with their biogeochemical and ecological functioning shaped by dynamic hydrological conditions that are increasingly influenced by climate change. A key unresolved question is how hydrologic flow, vegetation response, and rising sea levels interact to regulate soil redox condition and carbon loss in coastal wetlands. Using a field-tested hydrological–biogeochemical–ecological modeling framework, we reveal how the interplay between terrestrial groundwater discharge and tidal fluctuations generates complex groundwater flow patterns at the terrestrial–aquatic interface, and how these patterns modulate soil redox conditions, in turn influencing soil organic matter decomposition and carbon loss. Notably, rising sea levels suppress soil CO 2 emissions while reducing lateral dissolved carbon losses, thereby enhancing litter carbon sequestration under anoxic conditions. As vegetation responds to sea-level rise and carbon inputs diminish, litter carbon subsequently declines. These findings underscore a critical hydrological control on carbon cycling, advancing our understanding of coastal ecosystem resilience in a warming world.

Louisiana↗
USGS2025

Induced earthquakes are generally not tidally triggered in Oklahoma and Kansas

Human-induced earthquakes occur along critically stressed faults as injected wastewater simultaneously heightens fluid pressure and pushes faults to failure. We investigate the possibility that small stresses imposed by Earth tides could trigger earthquakes in the induced seismicity region of Oklahoma and Kansas from 2011 to 2018. We decluster a catalog consisting of ∼110,000 earthquakes using three methods (Reasenberg, nearest-neighbor distance, and phase-bin). We find no significant tidal earthquake triggering using Schuster's p -value test for the declustered catalogs as a whole. We search for localized triggering using discretized space-time cells and find ∼0–6% of cells have significant tidal triggering which is close to what is randomly expected (5%) and indicates there is an insignificant amount of tidal triggering for the full study region. One area that has significant p -values across multiple time windows, ∼2014–2016 is ∼15 km from a region of large wastewater injection volume. It is possible that localized tidal triggering occurs for this time and area because faults remain critically stressed and are particularly susceptible to slip under the small stress load from the semidiurnal tide. Possible explanations for the lack of tidal triggering in our broader study are that the pre-seismic stressing rate in the earthquake nucleation area is faster than the tidal stressing rate (∼3 kPa/day), faults are not close enough to critically stressed to be affected by tidal forcing, and that nucleation occurs over longer periods than the tides considered in this study (∼1, ∼14 days). Fluid injection could be the source of a higher pre-seismic stress rate.

Kansas, Oklahoma↗
USGS2024

A multidisciplinary approach that considers occurrence, geochemistry, bioavailability, and toxicity to prioritize critical minerals for environmental research

Critical minerals (or critical elements) are minerals or elements that are essential to global security and development and have supply chains vulnerable to disruption. In general, knowledge of the environmental behavior and health effects of critical elements is needed to support the development of safe and environmentally responsible supplies. This knowledge includes identifying potential consequences of increased critical element production and use, alternative critical element sources such as mine wastes, and adverse effects of critical elements on ecosystem condition and organismal health. Here we identify significant data gaps in the understanding of critical elements in surficial and aquatic environments, and the need, given the large number of commodities (50) identified on the 2022 critical minerals list for the United States, for an approach to prioritize them for study of their environmental fate and effects. We propose a multidisciplinary approach for this prioritization, considering measures of occurrence, geochemistry, bioavailability, and toxicity. We describe relatively easy-to-obtain metrics for each of these topic areas and demonstrate the utility of this integrated prioritization approach using indium and zinc as examples. This approach facilitates prioritizing research with a focus on those critical elements that are most mobile in the environment, bioavailable, toxic, or simply lacking data in these categories.

Environmental Science & Technology↗
USGS2025

Cave records reveal recent origin of North America’s deepest canyon

We explore how and when Hells Canyon, North America’s deepest river gorge (~2,400 m deep), formed, addressing these fundamental questions first posed by W. Lindgren [ The Gold Belt of the Blue Mountains of Oregon (1901)]. Existing hypotheses about the canyon’s formation and timing of incision remain speculative due to a lack of direct constraints and geomorphic analysis in the canyon. Herein, we combine cosmogenic nuclide dating of cave-bound river deposits, river profile analysis, and numerical modeling to provide the first direct age constraints and systematic analysis of incision processes at work in Hells Canyon. Our study reveals a significant drainage capture triggered rapid incision at ~2.1 ± 1.0 Ma, establishing the Snake River’s modern route into the Columbia River system. The increased drainage area and subsequent increase in stream power resulted in the rapid incision of Hells Canyon and the formation of tributary knickpoints (KPs) that decrease in elevation away from the capture location. Cosmogenic dating of cave deposits indicates incision rates increased from ~0.01 to ~0.16 mm y −1 . Numerical modeling of the stream capture supports these observations, demonstrating how abrupt drainage area increase drives rapid river incision. Our findings from Hells Canyon provide a well-constrained example of how drainage capture can dramatically shape the evolution of a major river gorge.

Idaho, Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2026

Permafrost thaw controls iron flux from wetlands and sulfide-bearing rocks to Arctic rivers and streams

Recent warming has caused widespread iron mobilization into Arctic waterbodies that degrades ecosystems and threatens natural resources. Yet, understanding where and when iron flux occurs remains limited. Here, we investigate iron loading across regional to local scales in Arctic Alaska using climate, water chemistry, and borehole data together with mapped geology and permafrost presence. We show that both anoxic microbial iron reduction and acid rock drainage from iron-sulfide oxidation mobilize iron. Iron influx is strongly associated with lowland wetlands, sulfide-rich upland bedrock, and near-surface permafrost. Acid rock drainage chemistry correlates very strongly with the depth of seasonal thaw above permafrost from the previous year, indicating a one-year lag. These findings clarify the spatial and temporal dynamics of Arctic river rusting, provide a mechanistic understanding of the phenomenon, and may allow anticipation of its occurrence and assessment of its implications for aquatic ecosystem health and subsistence resources under ongoing climate change.

Alaska↗
USGS2026

Predictions of anthropogenic background PFAS concentrations in soil and relation to bedrock lithology and groundwater quality

Detectable concentrations of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) have been observed in soils in remote areas and presumably originate from atmospheric deposition. These anthropogenic background concentrations may enable some PFAS to leach to groundwater at levels that exceed regulatory criteria for drinking water. However, anthropogenic background soil concentrations and their connection to groundwater are not well characterized. We developed a boosted regression tree model to predict perfluorooctanesulfonic acid (PFOS) and perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) concentrations in shallow soils across northern New England. Low soil pH was the most important predictor of elevated anthropogenic PFOS and PFOA concentrations in background soils, rather than potential PFAS sources, land use, or population density. Total organic carbon (TOC) was also an important predictor for PFOS soil concentrations. Model predictions indicate that 73% of the shallow soils within Maine, Vermont, and New Hampshire exceed New Hampshire’s Soil Remediation Standard for PFOS (0.5 ng/g) and 41% exceed the PFOA standard (0.4 ng/g). Analysis of soil model results and groundwater data suggests that areas with high soil pH are associated with higher groundwater detection frequencies, illustrating how areas with less retention in soil are, conversely, also areas with potentially greater groundwater vulnerability. Further analysis indicates that groundwater may be more vulnerable in calcareous lithologies.

Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont↗
USGS2025

Groundwater dominates snowmelt runoff and controls streamflow efficiency in the western United States

Climate change in seasonally snow-covered mountain catchments is reducing water supply and decreasing streamflow predictability. Here, we use tritium age dating to show that contrary to the common assumption that snowmelt quickly contributes to runoff, streamflow during snowmelt in western US catchments is dominated by older groundwater. The average age of streamwater during snowmelt runoff (5.7 ± 4.3 years) was intermediate to the average age of groundwater (10.4 ± 4.5 years) and recent precipitation, indicating that 58% (±34%) of snowmelt runoff was derived from groundwater. Water ages, streamflow, and groundwater storage were mediated by bedrock geology: low-permeability hard rock/shale catchments exhibited younger ages, less storage, and more efficient streamflow generation than high-permeability sandstone/clastic catchments. Our results demonstrate that snowmelt runoff is the result of multiple prior years of climate mediated by groundwater storage. Including these interactions will be crucial for predicting water resources as climate and landscape changes accelerate.

western united States↗
USGS2025

‘The fish that stop’: Drivers of historical decline for Pacific cod and implications for modern management in an era of rapidly changing climate

n the Gulf of Alaska, a series of marine heat waves depleted Pacific cod ( Gadus macrocephalus ) biomass to the lowest abundance ever recorded and led to the fishery’s closure in 2020. Although the fishery has been productive for decades, this collapse may have historical precedents. Traditional knowledge holders refer to cod as ‘the fish that stop’, and there is a suggested period of decline in the 1930s. Here we conduct a catch reconstruction of the early commercial fishery (1864–1950), confirming a rapid catch decline in the 1920s and 1930s. Next, we evaluate evidence for possible drivers. We document changes to demand and technology that contributed to declining catch. However, we also find both qualitative and quantitative evidence of depletion, suggesting catch declines were not driven entirely by social factors. Overfishing may have contributed to localized catch declines as evidenced by declining catch rates in heavily fished localities. We also find evidence for climate as a driver of regional decline, with the period of catch decline characterized by up to 2°C higher temperatures as compared to the earlier period of high fisheries production. Our analysis underscores the importance of understanding long-term drivers of fisheries productivity and the value of linking fisheries and climate histories.

Alaska↗
USGS2026

Evaluating the effects of a multi-modal deterrent on upstream passage by invasive carp and native species

Invasive carp, including Silver Carp ( Hypophthalmichthys molitrix ) and Grass Carp ( Ctenopharyngodon idella ), are increasing their range within the Mississippi River Basin, threatening native fishes and ecosystem function. We conducted a 3-year field test of a multi-modal deterrent that uses sound, bubbles, and light to test its ability to impede upstream passage by invasive carp. The test was performed at a lock and dam on the Cumberland River, Kentucky, USA, using acoustic telemetry to track the movements of Silver Carp, Grass Carp, and several native fish species. When the deterrent was operating, the estimated probability of upstream lock passage was 53% lower (95% CI: 41%–63%) for Silver Carp but 74% higher (95% CI: 3%–190%) for Grass Carp compared to times when the deterrent was not operating. Paddlefish ( Polyodon spathula ) passage was reduced by 43% (95% CI: 71% reduction to 9% increase), although this was not statistically significant. We detected no significant effects on Freshwater Drum ( Aplodinotus grunniens ) or Smallmouth Buffalo ( Ictiobus bubalus ). However, sample sizes were small for these native species, limiting our ability to identify effects. Water temperature, tailwater elevation, and vessel lockages affected passage rates, although this varied among species.

Kentucky↗
USGS2025

A review of post-wildfire adaptations of surface-water-quality models: Synthesis, gaps, and opportunities

As wildfires increasingly affect water-supply watersheds, the demand for models to predict water-quality responses is increasing. This work reviews and synthesizes existing post-wildfire applications of water-quality models in the context of geographic and ecohydrological distribution, hydrologic and water-quality response process representation, model parameterization, model and input data scales, model calibration data availability, as well as calibration and performance evaluation approaches. Emphasis is placed on models that simulate water-quality output, rather than sediment and erosional response as the primary focus. Here, identified gaps and opportunities to advance the post-wildfire application of water-quality models include: 1. applying models in under-represented geographic and ecohydrologic regions, 2. simulating multiple streamflow generation mechanisms, including groundwater, with an emphasis on shifting dominant flow pathways as the landscape recovers following wildfire, 3. adding studies that include the simulation of metals, 4. incorporating more biogeochemical and in-stream processes to model applications, 5. applying finer spatial and temporal resolution of precipitation data input as well as finer spatial resolution hydrologic response units, 6. implementing fully distributed grid or element models or finer resolution response units to capture burn severity heterogeneity, 7. collecting enhanced water-quality data for model calibration and validation, 8. conducting model-intercomparison studies, and 9. developing model parameter value guidance in post-wildfire applications. These identified gaps and opportunities may assist users in deciding on key processes and approaches to consider in modeling post-wildfire water-quality conditions.

Science of the Total Environment↗
USGS2024

The dominance and growth of shallow groundwater resources in continuous permafrost environments

Water is a limited resource in Arctic watersheds with continuous permafrost because freezing conditions in winter and the impermeability of permafrost limit storage and connectivity between surface water and deep groundwater. However, groundwater can still be an important source of surface water in such settings, feeding springs and large aufeis fields that are abundant in cold regions and generating runoff when precipitation is rare. Whether groundwater is sourced from suprapermafrost taliks or deeper regional aquifers will impact water availability as the Arctic continues to warm and thaw. Previous research is ambiguous about the role of deep groundwater, leading to uncertainty regarding Arctic water availability and changing water resources. We analyzed chemistry and residence times of spring, stream, and river waters in the continuous permafrost zone of Alaska, spanning the mountains to the coastal plain. Water chemistry and age tracers show that surface waters are predominately sourced from recent precipitation and have short (<50 y) subsurface residence times. Remote sensing indicates trends in the areal extent of aufeis over the last 37 y, and correlations between aufeis extent and previous year summer temperature. Together, these data indicate that surface waters in continuous permafrost regions may be impacted by short flow paths and shallow suprapermafrost aquifers that are highly sensitive to climatic and hydrologic change over annual timescales. Despite the lack of connection to regional aquifers, continued warming and permafrost thaw may promote deepening of the shallow subsurface aquifers and creation of shallow taliks, providing some resilience to Arctic freshwater ecosystems.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences↗
USGS2026

Rapid seismic and infrasound assessment of large landslides: A case study from Denali National Park and Preserve (Alaska)

Large, rapid landslides are a global hazard that can occur in remote, mountainous areas. Eyewitness reports of landslides and satellite imagery can often be limited or delayed, particularly during inclement weather. However, landslide-generated seismic and infrasound (low-frequency atmospheric sound) waves can be remotely detected in near real-time. This information can significantly expedite characterization and possible landslide response activities. Here, we highlight these capabilities using a > 4 million m³ ice–rock avalanche in Denali National Park and Preserve (Alaska). This event was detected via a landslide-specific seismic location and volume estimation algorithm deployed in Alaska, and — notably — by standard earthquake monitoring systems. Following rapid detection of this event, we combined its seismic and infrasound dataset with optical, synthetic aperture radar, and oblique aerial imagery, multitemporal digital elevation models, and a numerical flow model to reconstruct its failure timeline and dynamics. We apply array processing to infrasound signals traveling > 250 km and find that two precursory events occurred minutes prior to the main failure. We use long-period seismic signals to infer the force exerted by the landslide on the Earth and constrain the rheological parameters of our numerical flow simulation with this result and deposit morphology. The main failure produced a steeply-dipping impulsive initial downward force and reached speeds exceeding 60 m/s. This impulsive force generated relatively strong seismic body waves, which contributed to the earthquake system detection. This large, remote Alaska landslide underscores the key value of seismic and infrasound analysis for rapid landslide assessment and motivates efforts to further operationalize these approaches.

Alaska↗
USGS2024

Earthquake cycle mechanics during caldera collapse: Simulating the 2018 Kīlauea eruption

In multiple observed caldera-forming eruptions, the rock overlying a draining magma reservoir dropped downward along ring faults in sequences of discrete collapse earthquakes. These sequences are analogous to tectonic earthquake cycles and provide opportunities to examine fault mechanics and collapse eruption dynamics over multiple events. Collapse earthquake cycles have been studied with zero-dimensional slider-block models, but these do not account for the complicated interplay between fluid and elastic dynamics or for factors such as the heterogeneous fault properties and non-vertical ring fault geometries often inferred at volcanoes. We present two-dimensional axisymmetric mafic piston-like collapse earthquake cycle models that include rate-and-state friction, fully-dynamic elasticity, and compressible viscous fluid magma flow. We demonstrate that collapse earthquake intervals and magnitudes are highly sensitive to inertial effects, evolving stress fields, fault geometry, and depth-varying fault friction. Given the consistent earthquake cycles observed in most eruptions, this suggests that ring faults can quickly stabilize and often become nearly vertical at depth. We use the well-monitored 2018 collapse sequence at Kı̄lauea as a case study. Our model can produce many features of Kı̄lauea seismic and geodetic observations, except for a significant amount of interseismic slip, which cannot be readily explained with simple rate-and-state friction parameterizations.

Hawaii↗