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Geography for a Changing World - A science strategy for the geographic research of the U.S. Geological Survey, 2005-2015

This report presents a science strategy for the geographic research of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) for the years 2005-2015. The common thread running through the vision, mission, and science goals presented in the plan is that USGS geographers will provide national leadership to understand coupled human-environmental systems in the face of land change and will deliver pertinent information to decisionmakers on the vulnerability and resilience of these systems. We define land change science as the study of the human and environment dynamics that give rise to changed land use, cover, and surface form. A number of realities shape the strategic context of this plan: The Department of Interior Strategic Plan focuses on meeting society’s resource needs and sustaining the Nation’s life support systems, underscoring the importance of characterizing and understanding coupled human-environmental systems. In redefining its mission in the mid-1990s, the USGS envisions itself as an integrated natural science and information agency. The USGS will assume a national leadership role in the use of science to develop knowledge about the web of relations that couple biophysical and human systems and translate this knowledge into unbiased, reliable information that meets important societal information needs. The following trends will influence USGS geography-oriented science activities over the next decade. Most of the emerging earth science issues that the USGS will address are geographic phenomena. A growing international concern for aligning society’s development activities with environmental limits has led to an articulation of a science agenda associated with global environmental change, vulnerability, and resilience. Earth science investigations have evolved toward the study of very large areas, and the resulting huge volumes of data are challenging to manage and understand. Finally, scientists and the public face the challenge of gaining intelligent insights about geographic and environmental processes from these data, with the ultimate goal of guiding resource-management decisions. The first four science goals in the plan support understanding the human and environmental dynamics of land change. Each science goal has an associated set of strategic actions to achieve the goal. These goals and actions are consistent with national science priorities and the Department of Interior and USGS missions, take advantage of existing expertise, and lead to the strengthening of critical geographic research capacities that do not exist in other USGS disciplines.

Circular

Wildlife values of North American ricelands

Ricelands have become an indispensable component of waterbird habitat and a leading example of integrating agricultural and natural resource management in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley, Gulf Coast, and Central California. Residual rice, weed seeds, and invertebrates provide food for many avian species during fall and winter. In North America, considerable information exists on the use of ricefields by wintering waterbirds, the value of ricelands as breeding habitat for birds, and the effects of organic chemicals on birds that- feed in ricefields. Recent research has also examined the influence of field management practices, such as winter flooding and post-harvest straw manipulation, on the suitability of ricefields for wildlife. Whereas early studies focused on detrimental effects of wildlife on rice production (e.g., crop depredation), it has become apparent that waterbirds may benefit producers by enhancing straw decomposition, reducing weed and pest pressure, and providing additional income through hunting and wildlife viewing opportunities. A comprehensive evaluation of agronomic and environmental issues is needed to meet the challenges of producing food and sustaining wildlife in twenty-first-century rice lands. Changes in agricultural markets, pressures of increased urban development, conflicting needs for limited resources such as water, endangered species constraints, and concerns over water quality must be addressed in developing a sustainable, mutually beneficial partnership among the rice industry, wildlife, and environmental interests. Research is also needed to evaluate potential reductions in the wildlife carrying capacity of ricelands resulting from new harvest and field management techniques, crop conversion, or loss of rice acreage. Key uncertainties include: (1) changes in waste grain abundance and availability due to various harvest and post-harvest management practices; (2) evaluating food depletion by birds feeding in rice6elds and derermining threshold food levels required to maintain bird use; (3) quantifying use of ricefields by nonwaterfowl species throughout the year; and (4) determining the amount and distribution of rice habitat needed to meet objectives of the North American Waterfowl Management Plan and the United States Shorebird Conservation Plan.

Book chapter

Uncertainty management, spatial and temporal reasoning, and validation of intelligent environmental decision support systems

There are inherent open problems arising when developing and running Intelligent Environmental Decision Support Systems (IEDSS). During daily operation of IEDSS several open challenge problems appear. The uncertainty of data being processed is intrinsic to the environmental system, which is being monitored by several on-line sensors and off-line data. Thus, anomalous data values at data gathering level or even uncertain reasoning process at later levels such as in diagnosis or decision support or planning can lead the environmental process to unsafe critical operation states. At diagnosis level or even at decision support level or planning level, spatial reasoning or temporal reasoning or both aspects can influence the reasoning processes undertaken by the IEDSS. Most of Environmental systems must take into account the spatial relationships between the environmental goal area and the nearby environmental areas and the temporal relationships between the current state and the past states of the environmental system to state accurate and reliable assertions to be used within the diagnosis process or decision support process or planning process. Finally, a related issue is a crucial point: are really reliable and safe the decisions proposed by the IEDSS? Are we sure about the goodness and performance of proposed solutions? How can we ensure a correct evaluation of the IEDSS? Main goal of this paper is to analyse these four issues, review some possible approaches and techniques to cope with them, and study new trends for future research within the IEDSS field.

Conference Paper

Dust control products at Hagerman National Wildlife Refuge, Texas: environmental safety and performance

Controlling fugitive dust while protecting natural resources is a challenge faced by all managers of unpaved roads. Unfortunately, road managers choosing between dust control products often have little objective environmental information to aid their decisions. To address this information gap, the U.S. Geological Survey and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service collaborated on a field test of three dust control products with the objectives of ( a ) evaluating product performance under real-world conditions, ( b ) verifying the environmental safety of products identified as practically nontoxic in laboratory tests, and ( c ) testing the feasibility of several environmental monitoring techniques for use in dust control tests. In cooperation with refuge staff and product vendors, three products (one magnesium chloride plus binder, one cellulose, and one synthetic fluid plus binder) were applied in July 2012 to replicated road sections at the Hagerman National Wildlife Refuge in Texas. These sections were monitored periodically for 12 months after application. Product performance was assessed by mobile-mounted particulate-matter meters measuring production of fugitive dust and by observations of road conditions. Environmental safety was evaluated through on-site biological observations and leaching tests with samples of treated aggregate. All products reduced dust and improved surface condition during those 12 months. Planned environmental measurements were not always compatible with day-to-day refuge management actions; this incompatibility highlighted the need for flexible biological monitoring plans. As one of the first field tests of dust suppressants that explicitly incorporated biological endpoints, this effort provides valuable information for improving field tests and for developing laboratory or semifield alternatives.

Texas

Identifying priority science information needs for managing public lands

Public lands worldwide provide diverse resources, uses, and values, ranging from wilderness to extractive uses. Decision-making on public lands is complex as a result and is required by law to be informed by science. However, public land managers may not always have the science they need. We developed a methodology for identifying priority science needs for public land management agencies. We relied on two core data sources: environmental effects analyses conducted for agency decisions and legal challenges to those decisions. We considered needs in four categories: data, science, methods, and mitigation measures. We classified topics as primary science needs when (1) the topic was analyzed frequently in agency environmental analyses, (2) our metric of quality/defensibility was low or mitigation measures were frequently included for the topic, and (3) the agency was challenged on its use of science for the topic. We applied our methodology to the Bureau of Land Management—the largest public land manager in the United States—in Colorado, a state with abundant and diverse public lands. Primary identified needs were data on vegetation; science about effects of oil and gas development and livestock grazing on multiple resources, including terrestrial wildlife; methods for analyzing environmental effects for many topics; and mitigation measures for protecting vegetation, soils, water quality, and archaeological and historic resources. Science needs often reflect needs for facilitating and supporting the use of existing science in agency decision-making. Our method can be applied across agencies, geographies, and timeframes to help strengthen science use in public lands decision-making.

Environmental Management

A spatial decision support system for coastal management: A research project at the National Wetlands Research Center of the U.S. Geological Survey

Environmental resource managers and scientists are being challenged in developing strategies to manage complex coastal systems. From an ecological perspective, there are myriad dynamic, interrelated natural and human-induced processes that affect the health and stability of coastal systems. However, the problems associated with managing coastal resources usually transcend purely ecological factors when one considers societal needs and expectations from these resources. For example, at least nine Federal, State, and local government agencies, often with widely varying responsibilities or interests, are charged with managing environmental resources and/or regulating human activities within Louisiana's coastal systems; that number may be higher in other coastal areas of the United States. In many coastal systems, a declining resource base and environmental quality combined with an expanding human population exert increased demands on those systems. This results in a number of conflicting resource management and environmental impact assessment issues. The issues include determining the most cost-effective strategies for restoring degraded natural systems, local and regional planning for future urban and commercial development in or near sensitive coastal habitats, predicting impacts from acute and chronic pollutant discharges (oil spills, fecal coliform contamination) as well as from natural hazard damages to coastal systems, and optimal partitioning of coastal resources among competing user groups (e.g., commercial and recreational fishermen). Solving such complex environmental resource management problems often involves a multidisciplinary approach, requires computerized analytical modeling abilities to manipulate large quantities of spatial-temporal data according to a defined set of objectives or constraints, and needs a mechanism to provide quick responses for dynamic resource and environmental issues. For this, a GIS-based multifunctional Spatial Decision Support System (SDSS) is being developed at the National Wetlands Research Center of the U.S. Geological Survey (formerly the Southern Science Center of the US. Fish and Wildlife Service/National Biological Service).

Louisiana

Accuracy, accessibility, and institutional capacity shape the utility of habitat models for managing and conserving rare plants on western public lands

Public lands are often managed for multiple uses ranging from energy development to rare plant conservation. Habitat models can help land managers assess and mitigate potential effects of projects on rare plants, but it is unclear how models are currently being used. Our goal was to better understand how staff in the Bureau of Land Management currently use habitat models to inform their decisions, and perceived challenges and benefits associated with that use. We first examined litigation documents to determine whether the agency has been challenged on its use of data for rare plants and found no relevant legal challenges. Second, we analyzed model use in National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) documents and found no clear citations of habitat models. Finally, we conducted interviews with agency staff who analyze potential effects of proposed actions on rare plants in NEPA documents. The primary challenges interviewees faced in using models related to data organization and access, model quality and accuracy, and institutional capacity. Interviewees believed models could be used more to inform decisions and actions to conserve rare plants and rare plant habitat on public lands and recommended improving staff access to models, creating models for additional species, and addressing staffing limitations.

Arizona, California, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, W

Applied Geochemistry Special Issue on Environmental geochemistry of modern mining

Environmental geochemistry is an integral part of the mine-life cycle, particularly for modern mining. The critical importance of environmental geochemistry begins with pre-mining baseline characterization and the assessment of environmental risks related to mining, continues through active mining especially in water and waste management practices, and culminates in mine closure. The enhanced significance of environmental geochemistry to modern mining has arisen from an increased knowledge of the impacts that historical and active mining can have on the environment, and from new regulations meant to guard against these impacts. New regulations are commonly motivated by advances in the scientific understanding of the environmental impacts of past mining. The impacts can be physical, chemical, and biological in nature. The physical challenges typically fall within the purview of engineers, whereas the chemical and biological challenges typically require a multidisciplinary array of expertise including geologists, geochemists, hydrologists, microbiologists, and biologists. The modern mine-permitting process throughout most of the world now requires that potential risks be assessed prior to the start of mining. The strategies for this risk assessment include a thorough characterization of pre-mining baseline conditions and the identification of risks specifically related to the manner in which the ore will be mined and processed, how water and waste products will be managed, and what the final configuration of the post-mining landscape will be. In the Fall 2010, the Society of Economic Geologists held a short course in conjunction with the annual meeting of the Geological Society of America in Denver, Colorado (USA) to examine the environmental geochemistry of modern mining. The intent was to focus on issues that are pertinent to current and future mines, as opposed to abandoned mines, which have been the focus of numerous previous short courses. The geochemical challenges of current and future mines share similarities with abandoned mines, but differences also exist. Mining and ore processing techniques have changed; the environmental footprint of waste materials has changed; environmental protection has become a more integral part of the mine planning process; and most historical mining was done with limited regard for the environment. The 17 papers in this special issue evolved from the Society of Economic Geologists’ short course. The relevant geochemical processes encompass the source, transport, and fate of contaminants related to the life cycle of a mine. Contaminants include metals and other inorganic species derived from geologic sources such as ore and solid mine waste, and substances brought to the site for ore processing, such as cyanide to leach gold. Factors, such as mine-waste mineralogy, hydrologic setting, mine-drainage chemistry, and microbial activity, that affect the hydrochemical risks from mining are reviewed by Nordstrom et al. In another paper, Nordstrom discusses baseline characterization at mine sites in a regulatory framework, and emphasizes the influence of mineral deposits in producing naturally elevated concentrations of many trace elements in surface water and groundwater. Surface water quality in mineralized watersheds is influenced by a number of processes that act on daily (diel) cycles and can produce dramatic variations in trace element concentrations as described by Gammons et al. Pre-mining baseline characterization studies should strive to capture the magnitude of these diel variations. Desbarats et al., using a case study of mine drainage from a gold mine, illustrate how elements that commonly occur as negatively charged species (anions) in solution, such as arsenic as arsenate, behave in an opposite fashion than most metals, which occur as positively charged species (cations). Significant improvement in the understanding of factors that influence the toxicity of metals to aquatic organisms in surface water has highlighted the importance of aqueous chemistry, particularly dissolved organic carbon, as described by Smith et al. Stream sediment contamination is another important pathway for affecting aquatic organisms, as reviewed by Besser et al. Understanding and predicting environmental consequences from mining begins with knowing the mineralogy and mineral reactivity of the ore, the wastes, and of secondary minerals formed later. Jamieson et al. review the importance of mineralogical studies in mine planning and remediation. A number of types of site-specific studies are needed to identify environmental risks related to individual mines. Lapakko reviews the general framework of mine waste characterization studies that are integral to the mine planning process. Hageman et al. present a comparative study of several static tests commonly used to characterize mine waste. The mining and ore processing practices employed at a specific mine site will vary on the basis of the commodities being targeted, the geology of the deposit, the geometry of the deposit, and the mining and ore processing methods used. Thus, these factors, in addition to the waste management practices used, can result in a variety of end-member mine waste features, each of which has its own set of challenges. Open pit mines and underground mines require waste rock to be removed to access ore. Waste rock presents unique problems because the rock is commonly mineralized at sub-economic grades and has not been processed to remove potentially problematic minerals, such as pyrite. Amos et al. examine the salient aspects of the geochemistry of waste rock. Mill tailings – the waste material after ore minerals have been removed – are a volumetrically important solid waste at many mine sites. Their fine grain size and the options for their management make their behavior in the environment distinct from that of waste rock. Lindsay et al. describe some of these differences through three case-study examples. Subaqueous disposal of tailings is another option described by Moncur et al. Cyanide leaching for gold extraction is a common method throughout the world. Johnson describes environmental aspects of cyanidation. Uranium mining presents unique environmental challenges, particularly since in-situ recovery has seen widespread use. Campbell et al. review the environmental geochemistry of uranium mining and current research on bioremediation. Ore concentrates from many types of metal mining undergo a pyrometallurgical technique known as smelting to extract the metal. Slag is the result of smelting, and it may be an environmental liability or a valuable byproduct, as described by Piatak et al. Finally, the open pits that result from surface mining commonly reach below the water table. At the end of mining, these pits may fill to form lakes that become part of the legacy of the mine. Castendyk et al., in two papers, review theoretical aspects of the environmental limnology of pit lakes. They also describe approaches that have been used to model pit lake water balance, wall-rock contributions to pit lake chemistry, pit lake water quality, and limnological processes, such as vertical mixing, through the use of three case studies.

Applied Geochemistry

Biomarkers reveal sea turtles remained in oiled areas following the Deepwater Horizon oil spill

Assessments of large-scale disasters, such as the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, are problematic because while measurements of post-disturbance conditions are common, measurements of pre-disturbance baselines are only rarely available. Without adequate observations of pre-disaster organismal and environmental conditions, it is impossible to assess the impact of such catastrophes on animal populations and ecological communities. Here, we use long-term biological tissue records to provide pre-disaster data for a vulnerable marine organism. Keratin samples from the carapace of loggerhead sea turtles record the foraging history for up to 18 years, allowing us to evaluate the effect of the oil spill on sea turtle foraging patterns. Samples were collected from 76 satellite-tracked adult loggerheads in 2011 and 2012, approximately one to two years after the spill. Of the 10 individuals that foraged in areas exposed to surface oil, none demonstrated significant changes in foraging patterns post spill. The observed long-term fidelity to foraging sites indicates that loggerheads in the northern Gulf of Mexico likely remained in established foraging sites, regardless of the introduction of oil and chemical dispersants. More research is needed to address potential long-term health consequences to turtles in this region. Mobile marine organisms present challenges for researchers to monitor effects of environmental disasters, both spatially and temporally. We demonstrate that biological tissues can reveal long-term histories of animal behavior and provide critical pre-disaster baselines following an anthropogenic disturbance or natural disaster.

Ecological Applications

The environmental-data automated track annotation (Env-DATA) system: linking animal tracks with environmental data

The movement of animals is strongly influenced by external factors in their surrounding environment such as weather, habitat types, and human land use. With advances in positioning and sensor technologies, it is now possible to capture animal locations at high spatial and temporal granularities. Likewise, scientists have an increasing access to large volumes of environmental data. Environmental data are heterogeneous in source and format, and are usually obtained at different spatiotemporal scales than movement data. Indeed, there remain scientific and technical challenges in developing linkages between the growing collections of animal movement data and the large repositories of heterogeneous remote sensing observations, as well as in the developments of new statistical and computational methods for the analysis of movement in its environmental context. These challenges include retrieval, indexing, efficient storage, data integration, and analytical techniques.

Movement Ecology

Potential of environmental DNA to evaluate Northern pike ( Esox lucius ) eradication efforts: An experimental test and case study

Determining the success of invasive species eradication efforts is challenging because populations at very low abundance are difficult to detect. Environmental DNA (eDNA) sampling has recently emerged as a powerful tool for detecting rare aquatic animals; however, detectable fragments of DNA can persist over time despite absence of the targeted taxa and can therefore complicate eDNA sampling after an eradication event. This complication is a large concern for fish eradication efforts in lakes since killed fish can sink to the bottom and slowly decay. DNA released from these carcasses may remain detectable for long periods. Here, we evaluated the efficacy of eDNA sampling to detect invasive Northern pike ( Esox lucius ) following piscicide eradication efforts in southcentral Alaskan lakes. We used field observations and experiments to test the sensitivity of our Northern pike eDNA assay and to evaluate the persistence of detectable DNA emitted from Northern pike carcasses. We then used eDNA sampling and traditional sampling (i.e., gillnets) to test for presence of Northern pike in four lakes subjected to a piscicide-treatment designed to eradicate this species. We found that our assay could detect an abundant, free-roaming population of Northern pike and could also detect low-densities of Northern pike held in cages. For these caged Northern pike, probability of detection decreased with distance from the cage. We then stocked three lakes with Northern pike carcasses and collected eDNA samples 7, 35 and 70 days post-stocking. We detected DNA at 7 and 35 days, but not at 70 days. Finally, we collected eDNA samples ~ 230 days after four lakes were subjected to piscicide-treatments and detected Northern pike DNA in 3 of 179 samples, with a single detection at each of three lakes, though we did not catch any Northern pike in gillnets. Taken together, we found that eDNA can help to inform eradication efforts if used in conjunction with multiple lines of inquiry and sampling is delayed long enough to allow full degradation of DNA in the water.

PLoS ONE

Enhancing Great Lakes coastal ecosystems research by initiating engagement between scientists and decision-makers

A disconnect between scientific research and environmental management communities can be a detriment to both. In the case of Great Lakes coastal ecosystems, which are inherently complex and subject to uncertain effects of future climatic, environmental, and anthropogenic drivers, greater collaboration could be beneficial to their sustainability. We capture the challenges and opportunities identified by a scientist/decision-maker co-production workshop focused on the future environmental quality of Great Lakes coastal wetlands. We explain our path through the stakeholder workshop process, our challenges in translating meeting outcomes into actionable items, and lessons learned to bridge gaps between scientists and decision-makers. Additionally, we determine topics and directions identified by decision-makers that can be modeled with existing technologies and others that require further research. These topics may be incorporated into future research efforts and could serve as a shortlist of research priorities that were identified by decision-makers working with coastal wetland issues. Based on lessons learned during and after the workshop, we provide suggestions for bridging the gap between researchers and decision-makers, including sustained engagement between these groups and improved interaction through the beginning, duration, and end of research and/or management efforts.

Great Lakes

Tracking fisheries through time: The American Fisheries Society as an historical lens

The historical context of current environment conditions offers vital guidance to North American fisheries professionals as they strive to develop effective management plans and policies. This retrospective includes understanding the remarkable historic fisheries resource and causative reasons for establishing their public fisheries agencies and the American Fisheries Society (Society). Through a review of primary historical documents and literature for North America, this paper identifies: factors contributing to the of founding of the Society and public fish commissions; shows how selected resource issues evolved; and documents how and why selected fisheries and aquatic habitat policies changed in response to those issues. Overexploitation, landscape-scale habitat alterations, mining, and dams were the causative agents for emergence of fisheries agencies and the Society, and these environmental factors remain relevant today. Beginning in the 1960s, after 100 years of inaction, North Americans grew tired of degraded waters and fisheries and forced policy changes that have directly and indirectly affected the fisheries we manage today. The historical events and resulting corrective legislation are taken for granted by those unaware that our Society has actively participated in developing policies to address these environmental harms. Further, the Society continues to play a vital role in identifying key issues, providing conduits for information to cope with impairments, and advocating for policies to conserve intact habitats and improve degraded systems. The struggles documented in this paper offer crucial lessons as we continue to be challenged by legacy resource issues and face emerging environmental stressors such as climate change as well as regression in long-standing environmental protection policies.

Fisheries Magazine

Using machine learning to improve predictions and provide insight into fluvial sediment transport

A thorough understanding of fluvial sediment transport is critical to addressing many environmental concerns such as exacerbated flooding, degradation of aquatic habitat, excess nutrients, and the economic challenges of restoring aquatic systems. Fluvial sediment samples are integral for addressing these environmental concerns but cannot be collected at every river and time of interest. Therefore, to gain a better understanding for rivers where direct measurements have not been made, extreme gradient boosting machine learning (ML) models were developed and trained to predict suspended sediment and bedload from sampling data collected in Minnesota, United States (U.S.), by the U.S. Geological Survey. Approximately 400 watershed (full upstream area), catchment (nearby landscape), near-channel, channel, and streamflow features were retrieved or developed from multiple sources, reduced to approximately 30 uncorrelated features, and used in the final ML models. The results indicate suspended sediment and bedload ML models explain approximately 70% of the variance in the datasets. Important features used in the models were interpreted with Shapley additive explanation (SHAP) plots, which provided insight into sediment transport processes. The most important features in the models were developed to normalize streamflow by the 2-year recurrence interval and quantify the rate of change in streamflow (slope), which helped account for sediment hysteresis. Generally, this study also showed a combination of mostly watershed and catchment geospatial features were important in ML models that predict sediment transport from physical samples. This study is a promising step forward in making fluvial sediment transport predictions using machine learning models trained by physically collected samples. The approach developed here can be used wherever similar datasets exists and will be useful for landscape and water management.

Minnesota

Wood you believe it? Experimental addition of nonnative wood enhances instream habitat for native dryland fishes

Flow alteration and riparian vegetation encroachment are causing habitat simplification with severe consequences for native fishes. To assess the effectiveness of enhancing simplified habitat in a large dryland river, we experimentally added invasive wood at 19 paired treatment and reference (no wood added) subreaches (50–100 m) within the main channel of the San Juan River. Using a before-after-control-impact design, we sampled fishes and macroinvertebrates, and quantified habitat complexity. After wood addition, total native fish densities were 2.2× higher in treatments compared with references, whereas total nonnative fish densities exhibited no response. Macroinvertebrate densities were 6.8× higher, and habitat complexity increased in treatments. Counts of geomorphic features in treatments increased from 1 to a maximum of 11 following wood addition, while the number of features in references remained unchanged. Wood addition has potential to instigate natural riverine processes, ultimately enhancing native fish habitat by increasing macroinvertebrate densities and habitat complexity in dryland rivers. Water overallocation and increasing aridity will continue to challenge efforts to improve habitat conditions with environmental flows alone, and managers might consider integrating non-flow alternatives like addition of abundant, invasive wood to reduce habitat simplification.

New Mexico, Utah

Life history structure of westslope cutthroat trout: Inferences from otolith microchemistry

Life history diversity is important for population stability and is dependent on connectivity to habitat that supports all life stages and life history strategies for a species. Westslope Cutthroat Trout Oncorhynchus clarkii lewisi (WCT) exhibit plasticity in life history strategies in response to environmental variability, but fisheries managers have been challenged with evaluating the life history structure of WCT populations. The goals of this research were to use strontium isotopes (i.e., 87 Sr/ 86 Sr) derived from ambient water and sagittal otoliths to assess spatial variability and describe the life history structure of WCT. Water samples ( n = 49) and WCT ( n = 571) sagittal otoliths were collected throughout the Coeur d’Alene Lake basin in Idaho and analyzed for Sr isotopes. Model-based discriminant function analysis was used to assign WCT to natal tributaries and to infer maternal origins. Life history structure was inferred from maternal signatures and indicated that fluvial (68% of all fish), resident (27%), and adfluvial (5%) life history strategies were present. Connectivity in lotic systems and from lotic to lentic environments supports WCT life history diversity and contributes to a broad distribution of the species.

Idaho

Soil respiration response to rainfall modulated by plant phenology in a montane meadow, East River, Colorado, USA

Soil respiration is a primary component of the terrestrial carbon cycle. However, predicting the response of soil respiration to climate change remains a challenge due to the complex interactions between environmental drivers, especially plant phenology, temperature, and soil moisture. In this study, we use a 1‐D diffusion‐reaction model to calculate depth‐resolved CO 2 production rates from soil CO 2 concentrations and surface efflux observations in a subalpine meadow in the East River watershed, CO. Modeled rates are compared to in situ soil temperature and moisture conditions and MODIS satellite enhanced vegetation index (EVI) representing plant phenology across three hydrologically distinct growing seasons from 2016–2018. While soil respiration correlated with temperature on diel timescales ( p < 0.05), seasonal variability was dominated by soil moisture and plant phenology ( p < 0.05). We observed significant respiration increases in response to precipitation events; however, magnitude and duration were significantly higher in 2017 than 2016 despite similar wetting characteristics. Based on MODIS EVI, we suggest that the respiration response to rainfall is controlled by plant phenology, which in turn reflects the capacity of plants to respond to precipitation via increased photosynthesis and autotrophic respiration, behavior that is not captured in typical soil respiration pulse models. Projected changes in montane climate such as earlier snowmelt and prolonged fore‐summer drought may decrease soil respiration fluxes by decreasing the overlap between peak productivity and the summer monsoon. Finally, we observed significant late season CO 2 fluxes from the deep subsoil (>165 cm) that support growing evidence for the importance of subsoil processes in driving integrated respiration fluxes.

Colorado

Understanding uncertainty in temperature effects on vector-borne disease: a Bayesian approach

Extrinsic environmental factors influence the distribution and population dynamics of many organisms, including insects that are of concern for human health and agriculture. This is particularly true for vector-borne infectious diseases like malaria, which is a major source of morbidity and mortality in humans. Understanding the mechanistic links between environment and population processes for these diseases is key to predicting the consequences of climate change on transmission and for developing effective interventions. An important measure of the intensity of disease transmission is the reproductive number R 0 . However, understanding the mechanisms linking R 0 and temperature, an environmental factor driving disease risk, can be challenging because the data available for parameterization are often poor. To address this, we show how a Bayesian approach can help identify critical uncertainties in components of R 0 and how this uncertainty is propagated into the estimate of R 0 . Most notably, we find that different parameters dominate the uncertainty at different temperature regimes: bite rate from 15&deg;C to 25&deg;C; fecundity across all temperatures, but especially ~25&ndash;32&deg;C; mortality from 20&deg;C to 30&deg;C; parasite development rate at ~15&ndash;16&deg;C and again at ~33&ndash;35&deg;C. Focusing empirical studies on these parameters and corresponding temperature ranges would be the most efficient way to improve estimates of R 0 . While we focus on malaria, our methods apply to improving process-based models more generally, including epidemiological, physiological niche, and species distribution models.

Ecology