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Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

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At least 181 records · Page 10Linked to original sources
USGS2019

Pathways to strategic communication for biodiversity conservation: Response to “Hearing ourselves (and acting in consequence): A commentary on Bekessy et al. from a bird-handling environmental education perspective”

Central to discussions about the merits of ecosystem services as a communication strategy is the degree to which it represents a strategic and effective approach to advance biodiversity conservation. There is increasing recognition that many conservation communication efforts can be more strategic (e.g. Kusmanoff et al. 2016).

Biological Conservation↗
USGS2009

Ecological Requirements for Pallid Sturgeon Reproduction and Recruitment in the Lower Missouri River: A Research Synthesis 2005-08

This report provides a synthesis of results obtained between 2005 and 2008 from the Comprehensive Sturgeon Research Program, an interagency collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey, Nebraska Game and Parks Commission, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers' Missouri River Recovery - Integrated Science Program. The goal of the Comprehensive Sturgeon Research Program is to improve fundamental understanding of reproductive ecology of the pallid sturgeon with the intent that improved understanding will inform river and species management decisions. Specific objectives include: *Determining movement, habitat-use, and reproductive behavior of pallid sturgeon; *Understanding reproductive physiology of pallid sturgeon and relations to environmental conditions; *Determining origin, transport, and fate of drifting pallid sturgeon larvae, and evaluating bottlenecks for recruitment of early life stages; *Quantifying availability and dynamics of aquatic habitats needed by pallid sturgeon for all life stages; and *Managing databases, integrating understanding, and publishing relevant information into the public domain. Management actions to increase reproductive success and survival of pallid sturgeon in the Lower Missouri River have been focused on flow regime, channel morphology, and propagation. Integration of 2005-08 Comprehensive Sturgeon Research Program research provides insight into linkages among flow regime, re-engineered channel morphology, and pallid sturgeon reproduction and survival. The research approach of the Comprehensive Sturgeon Research Program integrates opportunistic field studies, field-based experiments, and controlled laboratory studies. The field study plan is designed to explore the role of flow regime and associated environmental cues using two complementary approaches. An upstream-downstream approach compares sturgeon reproductive behavior between an upstream section of the Lower Missouri River with highly altered flow regime to a downstream section that maintains much of its pre-regulation flow variability. The upstream section also has the potential for an experimental approach to compare reproductive behavior in years with pulsed flow modifications ('spring rises') to years without. The reproductive cycle of the female sturgeon requires several years to progress through gonadal development, oocyte maturation, and spawning. Converging lines of evidence support the hypothesis that maturation and readiness to spawn in female sturgeon is cued many months before spawning. Information on reproductive readiness of shovelnose sturgeon indicates that sturgeon at different locations along the Lower Missouri River between St. Louis and Gavins Point Dam are all responding to the same early cue. Although not a perfect surrogate, the more abundant shovelnose sturgeon is morphologically, physiologically, and genetically similar to pallid sturgeon, and thereby provides a useful comparative model for the rarer species. Day length is the likely candidate to define a temporal spawning window. Within the spawning window, one or more additional, short-term, and specific cues may serve to signal ovulation and release of gametes. Of three potential spawning cues - water temperature, water discharge, and day of year - water temperature is the most likely proximate cue because of the fundamental physiological role temperature plays in sturgeon embryo development and survival, and the sensitivity of many fish hormones to temperature change. It also is possible that neither temperature nor discharge is cueing spawning; instead, reproductive behavior may result from the biological clock advancing an individual fish's readiness to spawn day after day through the spawning period until the right moment, independent of local environmental conditions. Separation of the individual effects of discharge events, water temperature, and other possible factors, such as proximity to male

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2016

Organizing environmental flow frameworks to meet hydropower mitigation needs

The global recognition of the importance of natural flow regimes to sustain the ecological integrity of river systems has led to increased societal pressure on the hydropower industry to change plant operations to improve downstream aquatic ecosystems. However, a complete reinstatement of natural flow regimes is often unrealistic when balancing water needs for ecosystems, energy production, and other human uses. Thus, stakeholders must identify a prioritized subset of flow prescriptions that meet ecological objectives in light of realistic constraints. Yet, isolating aspects of flow regimes to restore downstream of hydropower facilities is among the greatest challenges of environmental flow science due, in part, to the sheer volume of available environmental flow tools in conjunction with complex negotiation-based regulatory procedures. Herein, we propose an organizational framework that structures information and existing flow paradigms into a staged process that assists stakeholders in implementing environmental flows for hydropower facilities. The framework identifies areas where regulations fall short of the needed scientific process, and provide suggestions for stakeholders to ameliorate those situations through advanced preparation. We highlight the strengths of existing flow paradigms in their application to hydropower settings and suggest when and where tools are most applicable. Our suggested framework increases the effectiveness and efficiency of the e-flow implementation process by rapidly establishing a knowledge base and decreasing uncertainty so more time can be devoted to filling knowledge gaps. Lastly, the framework provides the structure for a coordinated research agenda to further the science of environmental flows related to hydropower environments.

Environmental Management↗
USGS2007

Effects of Regulation and Technology on End Uses of Nonfuel Mineral Commodities in the United States

The regulatory system and advancement of technologies have shaped the end-use patterns of nonfuel minerals used in the United States. These factors affected the quantities and types of materials used by society. Environmental concerns and awareness of possible negative effects on public health prompted numerous regulations that have dramatically altered the use of commodities like arsenic, asbestos, lead, and mercury. While the selected commodities represent only a small portion of overall U.S. materials use, they have the potential for harmful effects on human health or the environment, which other commodities, like construction aggregates, do not normally have. The advancement of technology allowed for new uses of mineral materials in products like high-performance computers, telecommunications equipment, plasma and liquid-crystal display televisions and computer monitors, mobile telephones, and electronic devices, which have become mainstream products. These technologies altered the end-use pattern of mineral commodities like gallium, germanium, indium, and strontium. Human ingenuity and people?s demand for different and creative services increase the demand for new materials and industries while shifting the pattern of use of mineral commodities. The mineral commodities? end-use data are critical for the understanding of the magnitude and character of these flows, assessing their impact on the environment, and providing an early warning of potential problems in waste management of products containing these commodities. The knowledge of final disposition of the mineral commodity allows better decisions as to how regulation should be tailored.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2011

Modeling of hydroecological feedbacks predicts distinct classes of landscape pattern, process, and restoration potential in shallow aquatic ecosystems

It is widely recognized that interactions between vegetation and flow cause the emergence of channel patterns that are distinct from the standard Schumm classification of river channels. Although landscape pattern is known to be linked to ecosystem services such as habitat provision, pollutant removal, and sustaining biodiversity, the mechanisms responsible for the development and stability of different landscape patterns in shallow, vegetated flows have remained poorly understood. Fortunately, recent advances have made possible large-scale models of flow through vegetated environments that can be run over a range of environmental variables and over timescales of millennia. We describe a new, quasi-3D cellular automata model that couples simulations of shallow-water flow, bed shear stresses, sediment transport, and vegetation dynamics in an efficient manner. That efficiency allowed us to apply the model widely in order to determine how different hydroecological feedbacks control landscape pattern and process in various types of wetlands and floodplains. Distinct classes of landscape pattern were uniquely associated with specific types of allogenic and autogenic drivers in wetland flows. Regular, anisotropically patterned wetlands were dominated by allogenic processes (i.e., processes driven by periodic high water levels and flow velocities that redistribute sediment), relative to autogenic processes (e.g., vegetation production, peat accretion, and gravitational erosion). These anistropically patterned wetlands are therefore particularly prone to hydrologic disturbance. Other classes of wetlands that emerged from simulated interactions included maze-patterned, amorphous, and topographically noisy marshes, open marsh with islands, banded string-pool sequences perpendicular to flow, parallel deep and narrow channels flanked by marsh, and ridge-and-slough patterned marsh oriented parallel to flow. Because vegetation both affects and responds to the balance between the transport capacity of the flow and sediment supply, these vegetated systems exhibit a feedback that is not dominant in most rivers. Consequently, unlike in most rivers, it is not possible to predict the “channel pattern” of a vegetated landscape based only on discharge characteristics and sediment supply; the antecedent vegetation pattern and vegetation dynamics must also be known. In general, the stability of different wetland pattern types is most strongly related to factors controlling the erosion and deposition of sediment at vegetation patch edges, the magnitude of sediment redistribution by flow, patch elevation relative to water level, and the variability of erosion rates in vegetation patches with low flow-resistance. As we exemplify in our case-study of the Everglades ridge and slough landscape, feedback between flow and vegetation also causes hysteresis in landscape evolution trajectories that will affect the potential for landscape restoration. Namely, even if the hydrologic conditions that historically produced higher flows are restored, degraded portions of the ridge and slough landscape are unlikely to revert to their former patterning. As wetlands and floodplains worldwide become increasingly threatened by climate change and urbanization, the greater mechanistic understanding of landscape pattern and process that our analysis provides will improve our ability to forecast and manage the behavior of these ecosystems.

Florida↗
USGS2012

Ecotoxicology of mercury in fish and wildlife: Recent advances

A number of recent studies have documented subtle, yet potentially important effects of mercury on behavior, neurochemistry, and endocrine function in fish and wildlife at currently realistic levels of environmental exposure. Current levels of environmental methylmercury exposure are sufficient to cause significant biological impairment, both in individuals and in whole populations, in some ecosystems. Future toxicological studies on fish and wildlife will focus on linking biomarkers of methylmercury exposure and associated oxidative stress to effects on reproduction and population change; determining the genetic basis for mercury-related neurotoxic and other biological changes; determining the genetic basis for species differences in sensitivity to methylmercury; and linking toxic effects of methylmercury in individual animals to population-level changes.

Book chapter↗
USGS2025

Calcareous nannofossil biostratigraphy and floral response to environmental changes recorded in the Pliocene Yorktown Formation, southeastern Virginia, USA

The Pliocene Yorktown Formation, deposited on the U.S. Mid-Atlantic Coastal Plain, has played an important role in advancing our knowledge of Pliocene paleoclimate. To refine the age and paleoenvironment of the Yorktown Formation, we analyzed the calcareous nannofossil assemblage and compared it with variations in lithology and calculated sea surface temperature (SST) from previous studies. The Yorktown Formation in the studied sections consists of, in ascending order, the Sunken Meadow, Rushmere, Morgarts Beach, and Moore House members. Sediment samples were collected from these units and analyzed for calcareous nannoplankton assemblages. The last occurrences of both Reticulofenestra pseudoumbilicus (3.82 Ma) and Sphenolithus spp. (3.61 Ma) were recognized within the Sunken Meadow Member. Discoaster tamalis and Discoaster surculus sporadically occurred within the Rushmere Member, but no specimens of the genus Sphenolithus were recorded, suggesting that this unit was deposited sometime between 3.61–2.76Ma. Rare occurrences of the genus Discoaster made it difficult to constrain the age of the Morgarts Beach and Moore House members, but they are most likely deposited before re-entrance of small Gephyrocapsa (ca. 2.5 Ma), supporting previous age estimates based on planktic foraminiferal biostratigraphy and variation in alkenone-based sea-surface temperature estimates. The abrupt decline of both cold-water species ( Coccolithus pelagicus ) and coastal species ( Helicosphaera spp.) is associated with a rise in SST within the Rushmere Member just below the Morgarts Beach Member, and it may reflect a rapid transgression following the global sea-level low stand associated with Marine Isotope Stage (MIS)M2.

Virginia↗
USGS1994

Airborne remote sensing for geology and the environment; present and future

In 1988, a group of leading experts from government, academia, and industry attended a workshop on airborne remote sensing sponsored by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and hosted by the Branch of Geophysics. The purpose of the workshop was to examine the scientific rationale for airborne remote sensing in support of government earth science in the next decade. This report has arranged the six resulting working-group reports under two main headings: (1) Geologic Remote Sensing, for the reports on geologic mapping, mineral resources, and fossil fuels and geothermal resources; and (2) Environmental Remote Sensing, for the reports on environmental geology, geologic hazards, and water resources. The intent of the workshop was to provide an evaluation of demonstrated capabilities, their direct extensions, and possible future applications, and this was the organizational format used for the geologic remote sensing reports. The working groups in environmental remote sensing chose to present their reports in a somewhat modified version of this format. A final section examines future advances and limitations in the field. There is a large, complex, and often bewildering array of remote sensing data available. Early remote sensing studies were based on data collected from airborne platforms. Much of that technology was later extended to satellites. The original 80-m-resolution Landsat Multispectral Scanner System (MSS) has now been largely superseded by the 30-m-resolution Thematic Mapper (TM) system that has additional spectral channels. The French satellite SPOT provides higher spatial resolution for channels equivalent to MSS. Low-resolution (1 km) data are available from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's AVHRR system, which acquires reflectance and day and night thermal data daily. Several experimental satellites have acquired limited data, and there are extensive plans for future satellites including those of Japan (JERS), Europe (ESA), Canada (Radarsat), and the United States (EOS). There are currently two national airborne remote sensing programs (photography, radar) with data archived at the USGS' EROS Data Center. Airborne broadband multispectral data (comparable to Landsat MSS and TM but involving several more channels) for limited geographic areas also are available for digital processing and analysis. Narrow-band imaging spectrometer data are available for some NASA experiment sites and can be acquired for other locations commercially. Remote sensing data and derivative images, because of the uniform spatial coverage, availability at different resolutions, and digital format, are becoming important data sets for geographic information system (GIS) analyses. Examples range from overlaying digitized geologic maps on remote sensing images and draping these over topography, to maps of mineral distribution and inferred abundance. A large variety of remote sensing data sets are available, with costs ranging from a few dollars per square mile for satellite digital data to a few hundred dollars per square mile for airborne imaging spectrometry. Computer processing and analysis costs routinely surpass these expenses because of the equipment and expertise necessary for information extraction and interpretation. Effective use requires both an understanding of the current methodology and an appreciation of the most cost-effective solution.

Bulletin↗
USGS2022

Lessons learned from wetlands research at the Cottonwood Lake Study Area, Stutsman County, North Dakota, 1967–2021

Depressional wetlands in the Prairie Pothole Region of North America have a long history of investigation owing to their importance in maintaining migratory-bird populations, especially waterfowl. One area of particularly intensive study is the Cottonwood Lake study area in Stutsman County, North Dakota. Studies at the Cottonwood Lake study area began in 1967 and continue through the present (2022). During this period of scientific discovery, meteorological conditions at the Cottonwood Lake study area varied greatly and included one of the most severe droughts of the 20th century and one of the wettest periods in the past 500 years. Persistent wet conditions that began in 1993 have contributed to state changes in many of the study area’s larger wetlands to lake-like conditions, whereas the smaller wetlands returned to seasonally ponded conditions during relatively dry years interspersed within the longer-term wet period. Additionally, some nonwetland areas of the study area developed wetland plant, hydrology, and soil characteristics during the 1993-to-present (2022) wet period. The persistently high stages of water in the larger wetlands since 1993 contributed to a buildup of dissolved solids and increases in salinity with time following an initial decrease in salinity caused by the dilution of dissolved solids within a larger volume of water. During 2021, drought conditions similar to the 1988 to 1992 period may develop if conditions persist. However, meteorological changes during the past 30 years have persisted long enough to be considered a change in climate conditions at the study area and, if such wet conditions continue, would represent a change from conditions that occurred in the past two millennia. During the period of study covered in this report (1967–2021), biotic communities responded in a variety of ways to subtle and marked changes in ponded-water depths, permanence, and salinity among the different wetland types in the study area. This report provides background information on the Cottonwood Lake study area and its context within the Prairie Pothole Region, documents techniques used to quantify environmental conditions and biotic communities, describes major trends that have been observed, presents significant findings as “lessons learned,” discusses recent modeling advances, and highlights key messages to managers. The Wetland Continuum concept was used as a framework to place research findings within an ecological context and to highlight the dynamic nature of prairie-pothole wetland ecosystems.

North Dakota↗
USGS2007

Invasive species management and research using GIS

Geographical Information Systems (GIS) are powerful tools in the field of invasive species management. GIS can be used to create potential distribution maps for all manner of taxa, including plants, animals, and diseases. GIS also performs well in the early detection and rapid assessment of invasive species. Here, we used GIS applications to investigate species richness and invasion patterns in fish in the United States (US) at the 6-digit Hydrologic Unit Code (HUC) level. We also created maps of potential spread of the cane toad (Bufo marinus) in the southeastern US at the 8-digit HUC level using regression and environmental envelope techniques. Equipped with this potential map, resource managers can target their field surveys to areas most vulnerable to invasion. Advances in GIS technology, maps, data, and many of these techniques can be found on websites such as the National Institute of Invasive Species Science (www.NIISS.org). Such websites provide a forum for data sharing and analysis that is an invaluable service to the invasive species community.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2014

Urban ecosystem services and decision making for a green Philadelphia

Traditional approaches to urban development often do not account for, or recognize, the role of ecosystem services and the benefits these services provide to the health and well-being of city residents. Without such accounting, urban ecosystem services are likely to be degraded over time, with negative consequences for the sustainability of cities and the well-being of their residents (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005; Hirsch, 2008). On May 23, 2013, the Spatial Integration Laboratory for Urban Systems (SILUS), a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Science and Decisions Center and the Wharton GIS Lab, convened a one-day symposium—Urban Ecosystem Services and Decision Making: A Green Philadelphia—at the University of Pennsylvania in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, to examine the role of green infrastructure in the environmental, economic, and social well-being of cities. Cosponsored by the USGS and the Penn Institute for Urban Research (Penn IUR), the symposium brought together policymakers, practitioners, and researchers from a range of disciplines to advance a research agenda on the use of science in public decision making to inform investment in green infrastructure and ecosystem services in urban areas. The city of Philadelphia has recently implemented a program designed to sustain urban ecosystem services and advance the use of green infrastructure. In 2009, the Philadelphia Mayor’s Office of Sustainability launched its Greenworks plan, establishing a citywide sustainability strategy. Major contributions towards its goals are being implemented in coordination with the Philadelphia Water Department (PWD). The Green City, Clean Waters initiative, the city’s nationally recognized stormwater management plan, was signed into action with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in April 2012. The plan outlines a 25-year strategy to use green infrastructure to protect and improve the city’s watershed. Widespread support for the plan marks a citywide effort to factor environmental quality concerns into the city’s strategic planning, choosing to replace expensive and aging grey infrastructure, with innovative and resilient green infrastructure. The symposium focused on these city of Philadelphia initiatives and also on two new Federal- local partnership programs: America’s Great Outdoors, initiated to promote conservation and recreation, and the Urban Waters Federal Partnership, a multiagency effort to reconnect urban communities to their waterways. A second goal of the symposium was to advance a research agenda on urban ecosystem services. While there has been considerable work on ecosystem services, the discussion of the benefits provided by urban ecosystems is not as developed. Benefits range from improved water and air quality to quality of life gains, including aesthetic and recreational considerations. There is also need for additional focused research toward furthering the understanding of the multiple indirect benefits provided by urban ecosystem services (Bolund and Hunhammar, 1999). Moreover, there is a need for a greater understanding of how best to inform local decision making in this area, as local decision makers in cities across the country are increasingly recognizing the importance of developing sustainability measures for their immediate and long-term planning (United States Conference of Mayors, 2005). Approaching these local and regional plans from a holistic perspective has become a guiding principle of sustainability and resiliency. Therefore, there is a need to better understand the gains that have been achieved and to advance a research agenda on ecosystem services going forward. The day’s program included presentations on greening initiatives from the Philadelphia’s Mayor’s Office of Sustainability, as well as discussion about using an urban ecosystem services framework to evaluate these initiatives. Panel sessions included discussion of the Green City, Clean Waters initiative; a dialogue about the management of urban trees and green space; and a conversation addressing the needs for future research.

Pennsylvania↗
USGS2024

Climate change

Amphibian ecology and distribution are strongly correlated with climate. Regional patterns of amphibian biodiversity are intimately linked to temperature, evapotranspiration rate, and clines in humidity. While amphibians are and will continue to be adversely affected by recent and projected changes in climate, research suggests that adaptation may happen more slowly than the expected rate of environmental shifts. Here, we review conservation-relevant aspects of both realised and potential impacts of climate change, and outline options for amphibian conservation planning and management. Recent advances in our understanding of climate change impacts on amphibians have primarily stemmed from ecological modelling and direct assessment of climatic tolerances and dispersal capacities through physiological assays, landscape genetics, and dispersal tracking. Anthropogenic climate change has already altered amphibian assemblages and their impacts on ecosystem functioning and services. Because of known and hypothesised ecological tolerances, many amphibians might have reached or exceeded most limits in their ability to adapt to or tolerate further climate change, however the uncertainties are substantial. Implementation of conservation planning and action can help to forestall severe impacts of environmental shifts. Scientific research and science-based decision-making and policy development have already lagged; the current pace of conservation planning and action may not allow for effective identification of threats and mitigation. An increased response rate could help to avert further loss of amphibian biodiversity and decay of ecosystem services. The lack of basic field research in natural habitats continues to be an underlying challenge. We suggest priority areas of research to include the development of biologically realistic predictive models of amphibian response to climate change, field verification of model estimates and key parameters, population monitoring across multiple sites and taxa, and a combination of efforts within and across ecosystems to understand how impacts of climate change can be better mitigated.

Book chapter↗
USGS2024

Advancing the understanding of Cyano-HABs in New York State

Most harmful algal blooms (HABs) in freshwater lakes, rivers, and streams are caused by cyanobacteria (Cyano-HABs). Under certain environmental conditions, dense concentrations (blooms) can form, which have the potential to cause aesthetic, ecological, and economic damage to afflicted waterbodies. Most importantly, Cyano-HABs can cause physical harm to people, pets, and livestock through the production of cyanotoxins.

New York↗
USGS2008

Differential exposure, duration, and sensitivity of unionoidean bivalve life stages to environmental contaminants

Freshwater mussels (superfamily Unionoidea) are in serious global decline and in urgent need of protection and conservation. The declines have been attributed to a wide array of human activities resulting in pollution and water-quality degradation, and habitat destruction and alteration. Linkages among poor water quality, pollutant sources, and mussel decline in rivers and streams have been associated with results of laboratory-based tests of specific pollutants. However, uncertainties remain about the relationship of laboratory data to actual contaminant exposure routes for various mussel species, life stages, and in the habitats occupied during these exposures. We evaluated the pathways of exposure to environmental pollutants for all 4 life stages (free glochidia, encysted glochidia, juveniles, adults) of unionoidean mussels and found that each life stage has both common and unique characteristics that contribute to observed differences in exposure and sensitivity. Free glochidia typically are exposed only briefly (e.g., seconds to days) through surface water, whereas adults sustain exposure over years to decades through surface water, pore water, sediment, and diet. Juveniles live largely burrowed in the sediment for the first 0 to 4 y of life. Thus, sediment, pore water, and diet are the predominant exposure routes for this life stage, but surface water also might contribute to exposure during certain periods and environmental conditions. The obligate parasitic stage (encysted glochidia stage) on a host fish might be exposed from surface water while partially encysted or from toxicants in host-fish tissue while fully encysted. Laboratory methods for testing for acute and chronic exposures in water have advanced, and toxicant-specific information has increased in recent years. However, additional research is needed to understand interactions of life history, habitat, and long-term exposure to contaminants through water, pore water, sediment, and diet so that the risks of environmental exposures can be properly assessed and managed. ?? 2008 by The North American Benthological Society.

Journal of the North American Benthological Societ↗
USGS2019

Predicting species distributions: unifying model selection and scale optimization for multi-scale occupancy models

Geographic distributions are a basic component of a species’ ecology, and predicting distributions is a fundamental task of conservation and resource management. Reliable prediction depends on identification of appropriate scales of effect for environmental data, and scale-optimization techniques are thus desirable to identify optimal scales for predictor variables. Recent statistical developments have also advanced methods of model selection based explicitly on predictive ability, which differ from commonly-used methods that regulate model structures via anticipated predictive performance. Such methods are beginning to permeate into species distribution models (SDMs), yet there remains no consensus methodology for developing optimally-predictive multi-scale SDMs when covariate data are collected over a range of scales. Thus, we compared the performance of common approaches for scale optimization and model selection in terms of their ability to produce optimally predictive multi-scale Bayesian occupancy models for predicting a species distribution, using models of the breeding distribution for King Rails (Rallus elegans) as a case study. Our results demonstrate sizable gains in predictive performance for hierarchical occupancy models selected explicitly via their ability to predict out-of-sample data using the logarithmic scoring rule, as compared to models selected using information criteria (DIC and WAIC). Information criteria commonly selected individual covariates, as well as scales of effect for those covariates, with suboptimal predictive performance. Performance of models selected using the logarithmic scoring rule was robust across method of scale optimization, which was not true for models selected using DIC and WAIC. Thus, we empirically demonstrate benefits of study designs that enable covariate and scale selection based explicitly on predictive ability. Our results also imply that more careful consideration of what constitutes an optimal scale is warranted in many ecological studies, as the meaning of optimal is not independent of the technique used for scale selection.

Ecosphere↗
USGS2013

Bridging groundwater models and decision support with a Bayesian network

Resource managers need to make decisions to plan for future environmental conditions, particularly sea level rise, in the face of substantial uncertainty. Many interacting processes factor in to the decisions they face. Advances in process models and the quantification of uncertainty have made models a valuable tool for this purpose. Long-simulation runtimes and, often, numerical instability make linking process models impractical in many cases. A method for emulating the important connections between model input and forecasts, while propagating uncertainty, has the potential to provide a bridge between complicated numerical process models and the efficiency and stability needed for decision making. We explore this using a Bayesian network (BN) to emulate a groundwater flow model. We expand on previous approaches to validating a BN by calculating forecasting skill using cross validation of a groundwater model of Assateague Island in Virginia and Maryland, USA. This BN emulation was shown to capture the important groundwater-flow characteristics and uncertainty of the groundwater system because of its connection to island morphology and sea level. Forecast power metrics associated with the validation of multiple alternative BN designs guided the selection of an optimal level of BN complexity. Assateague island is an ideal test case for exploring a forecasting tool based on current conditions because the unique hydrogeomorphological variability of the island includes a range of settings indicative of past, current, and future conditions. The resulting BN is a valuable tool for exploring the response of groundwater conditions to sea level rise in decision support.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2010

Health effects of energy resources

Energy resources (coal, oil, and natural gas) are among the cornerstones of modern industrial society. The exploitation of these resources, however, is not without costs. Energy materials may contain harmful chemical substances that, if mobilized into air, water, or soil, can adversely impact human health and environmental quality. In order to address the issue of human exposure to toxic substances derived from energy resources, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Energy Resources Program developed a project entitled 'Impacts of Energy Resources on Human Health and Environmental Quality.' The project is intended to provide policymakers and the public with the scientific information needed to weigh the human health and environmental consequences of meeting our energy needs. This fact sheet discusses several areas where the USGS Energy Resources Program is making scientific advances in this endeavor.

Fact Sheet↗
USGS2009

A New Occurrence Model for National Assessment of Undiscovered Volcanogenic Massive Sulfide Deposits

Volcanogenic massive sulfide (VMS) deposits are very significant current and historical resources of Cu-Pb-Zn-Au-Ag, are active exploration targets in several areas of the United States and potentially have significant environmental effects. This new USGS VMS deposit model provides a comprehensive review of deposit occurrence and ore genesis, and fully integrates recent advances in the understanding of active seafloor VMS-forming environments, and integrates consideration of geoenvironmental consequences of mining VMS deposits. Because VMS deposits exhibit a broad range of geological and geochemical characteristics, a suitable classification system is required to incorporate these variations into the mineral deposit model. We classify VMS deposits based on compositional variations in volcanic and sedimentary host rocks. The advantage of the classification method is that it provides a closer linkage between tectonic setting and lithostratigraphic assemblages, and an increased predictive capability during field-based studies.

Open-File Report↗