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USGS2020

Forecasting water demand across a rapidly urbanizing region

Urban growth and climate change together complicate planning efforts meant to adapt to increasingly scarce water supplies. Several studies have independently examined the impacts of urban planning and climate change on water demand, but little attention has been given to their combined impact. Here we forecast urban water demand using a Geographically Weighted Regression model informed by socio-economic, environmental and landscape pattern metrics. The purpose of our study is to evaluate how future scenarios of population densities and climate warming will jointly affect water demand across two rapidly growing U.S. states (North Carolina and South Carolina). Our forecasts indicate that regional water demand by 2065 will increase by 37%–383% relative to the baseline in 2010, across all scenarios of change. Our results show future water demand will increase under rising temperatures, but could be ameliorated by policies that promote higher density development and urban infill. These water-efficient land use policies show a 5% regional reduction in water demand and up to 25% reduction locally for counties with the highest expected population growth by 2065. For rural counties experiencing depopulation, the land use policies we considered are insufficient to significantly reduce water demand. For expanding communities seeking to increase their adaptive capacity to changing socio-environmental conditions, our framework can assist in developing sustainable solutions.

North Carolina, South Carolina↗

USGS2000

Towards policy relevant environmental modeling: contextual validity and pragmatic models

"What makes for a good model?" In various forms, this question is a question that, undoubtedly, many people, businesses, and institutions ponder with regards to their particular domain of modeling. One particular domain that is wrestling with this question is the multidisciplinary field of environmental modeling. Examples of environmental models range from models of contaminated ground water flow to the economic impact of natural disasters, such as earthquakes. One of the distinguishing claims of the field is the relevancy of environmental modeling to policy and environment-related decision-making in general. A pervasive view by both scientists and decision-makers is that a "good" model is one that is an accurate predictor. Thus, determining whether a model is "accurate" or "correct" is done by comparing model output to empirical observations. The expected outcome of this process, usually referred to as "validation" or "ground truthing," is a stamp on the model in question of "valid" or "not valid" that serves to indicate whether or not the model will be reliable before it is put into service in a decision-making context. In this paper, I begin by elaborating on the prevailing view of model validation and why this view must change. Drawing from concepts coming out of the studies of science and technology, I go on to propose a contextual view of validity that can overcome the problems associated with "ground truthing" models as an indicator of model goodness. The problem of how we talk about and determine model validity has much to do about how we perceive the utility of environmental models. In the remainder of the paper, I argue that we should adopt ideas of pragmatism in judging what makes for a good model and, in turn, developing good models. From such a perspective of model goodness, good environmental models should facilitate communication, convey—not bury or "eliminate"—uncertainties, and, thus, afford the active building of consensus decisions, instead of promoting passive or self-righteous decisions.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2012

Spatially explicit land-use and land-cover scenarios for the Great Plains of the United States

The Great Plains of the United States has undergone extensive land-use and land-cover change in the past 150 years, with much of the once vast native grasslands and wetlands converted to agricultural crops, and much of the unbroken prairie now heavily grazed. Future land-use change in the region could have dramatic impacts on ecological resources and processes. A scenario-based modeling framework is needed to support the analysis of potential land-use change in an uncertain future, and to mitigate potentially negative future impacts on ecosystem processes. We developed a scenario-based modeling framework to analyze potential future land-use change in the Great Plains. A unique scenario construction process, using an integrated modeling framework, historical data, workshops, and expert knowledge, was used to develop quantitative demand for future land-use change for four IPCC scenarios at the ecoregion level. The FORE-SCE model ingested the scenario information and produced spatially explicit land-use maps for the region at relatively fine spatial and thematic resolutions. Spatial modeling of the four scenarios provided spatial patterns of land-use change consistent with underlying assumptions and processes associated with each scenario. Economically oriented scenarios were characterized by significant loss of natural land covers and expansion of agricultural and urban land uses. Environmentally oriented scenarios experienced modest declines in natural land covers to slight increases. Model results were assessed for quantity and allocation disagreement between each scenario pair. In conjunction with the U.S. Geological Survey's Biological Carbon Sequestration project, the scenario-based modeling framework used for the Great Plains is now being applied to the entire United States.

Great Plains↗

USGS2001

Transboundary movement of airborne pollutants — A methodology for integrating spaceborne images and ground based data

The availability of relevant and accurate environmental information is essential for environmental policy-makers. Recent improvements in satellite remote sensing technologies, groundbased monitors, and data access have resulted in the ability to observe and assess major atmospheric and ecological events around the world on a timely basis Each of these monitoring technologies reveals different and useful information, yet rarely are the resulting data sets used together in an integrated manner. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) Global Resource Information Database (GRID) office in Sioux Falls identified an environmental issue of global interest as a test case for applying an integrated approach: the transboundary movement of atmospheric pollutants. Transboundary movement of atmospheric pollutants has ramifications for human and environmental health, as well as economic impacts. As a result, it is the focus of many bilateral, regional, and international policy efforts. A central question with atmospheric pollutant transport is how to monitor pollutant movement and how to merge different monitoring datasets into useful information. Highly visible regional plumes of dust, smoke, and urban haze can be seen with satellite sensors, while ground-based monitoring of air pollutants such as fine particulates, SO2 , and toxics occurs at the local level. Integration of these two kinds of measurements allows the user to remotely observe large environmental effects in many areas of the world, while obtaining more detailed information from ground-based monitors. Hence, the combination of satellite-based sensor data and ground-based monitoring data promotes greater understanding of the movement of pollutants than either data set alone. Combined data sets are important for use by both scientists and international policy-makers. A standard methodology did not exist to guide and encourage integrated use of satellite images and ground-based data to monitor and understand major pollution events, such as air pollution. Thus, a small team was assembled to develop a methodology for the integration of satellite images and ground-based data. First, we conducted a literature and project review covering past and current integrated remote and ground-based data projects, a literature search of published work, and a search of data sets and technologies that could be used in a combined form. Second, based on this search and documentation, a general methodology was developed for using integrated spaceborne and ground-based data sets, intended as a guide for general scientists and policy-makers. Third, we found an existing project that was willing to be a pilot for testing the methodology: a U.S. EPANOAA project that was using aerial and ground-based sampling to learn more about the airborne sources of mercury deposition in the Florida Everglades. This document presents the results of the literature and project review, the complete methodology, and the outcome of the Florida Everglades pilot project.

Report↗

USGS2025

Evaluating the potential of co-located non-petroleum energy resources in the Gulf Coast using play fairwayaAnalysis

Geological resources critical to the energy transition, such as sedimentary geothermal, carbon storage potential, and lithium in brines, commonly struggle for economic feasibility as stand-alone developments but can have greater viability when the potential for more than one of these resources exist within the same reservoir or stacked in different stratigraphic intervals. There may also be instances where development of one resource inhibits development of others and decisions need to be made on how to best prioritize the use of those resources in the subsurface. Subsurface data sets were analyzed and integrated to evaluate the distribution of non-petroleum energy and related resources in the onshore and nearshore U.S. Gulf Coast. Temperature, pressure, brine composition (lithium content), and reservoir quality data for thirty-four depositional units have been compiled and visualized to high-grade areas where multiple resource opportunities likely coexist. For sedimentary geothermal, possible resource areas are defined as low potential (<90°C), moderate potential (90–150°C), and high potential (>150°C). For CO 2 storage, high potential areas exhibit supercritical CO 2 conditions less than 80% of the fracture gradient. Areas with pore pressure between 80% and 100% of the fracture gradient are considered to exhibit moderate potential and areas where the fracture gradient is equal to or greater than 100% are assigned low potential. Lithium resources in brines were defined by lithium concentrations as low potential (<100ppm), moderate potential (100-200ppm), or high potential (>200ppm). Reservoir quality affects the viability of all three of these resources and is evaluated using depositional environment maps of each unit. The resulting play fairway maps can be used for regional scale screening evaluations of these resources and to identify areas of interest where more detailed, prospect-scale studies can be undertaken.

Gulf Coast↗

USGS2024

Implementation of the CREED approach for environmental assessments

Environmental exposure data are a key component of chemical and ecological assessments, supporting and guiding environmental management decisions and regulations. Measures taken to protect the environment based on exposure data can have social and economic implications. Flawed information may lead to measures being taken in the wrong place or to important action not being taken. Although the advantages of harmonizing evaluation methods have been demonstrated for hazard information, no comparable approach is established for exposure data evaluation. The goal of Criteria for Reporting and Evaluating Exposure Datasets (CREED) is to improve the transparency and consistency with which exposure data are evaluated regarding usability in environmental assessments. Here, we describe the synthesis of the CREED process, and propose methods and tools to summarize and interpret the outcomes of the data usability evaluation in support of decision-making and communication. The CREED outcome includes a summary that reports any key gaps or shortcomings in the reliability (data quality) and relevance (fitness for purpose) of the data being considered. The approach has been implemented in a workbook template (provided as Supporting Information), for assessors to readily follow the workflow and create a report card for any given dataset. The report card communicates the outcome of the CREED evaluation and summarizes important dataset attributes, providing a concise reference pertaining to the dataset usability for a specified purpose and documenting data limitations that may restrict data use or increase environmental assessment uncertainty. The application of CREED is demonstrated through three case studies, which also were used during beta testing of the methodology. As experience with the CREED approach application develops, further improvements may be identified and incorporated into the framework. Such development is to be encouraged in the interest of better science and decision-making, and to make environmental monitoring and assessment more cost-effective.

Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management↗

USGS2020

Antibiotic resistant bacteria in wildlife: Perspectives on trends, acquisitions and dissemination, data gaps, and future directions

The proliferation of antibiotic resistant bacteria in the environment has potential negative economic and health consequences. Thus, previous investigations have targeted wild animals to understand the occurrence of antibiotic resistance in diverse environmental sources. In this critical review and synthesis, we summarize important concepts learned through the sampling of wildlife for antibiotic resistant indicator bacteria. These concepts are helpful for understanding dissemination of resistance through environmental pathways and helping to guide future research efforts. Our review is comprised of six sections. The first section briefly introduces antibiotic resistance as it pertains to bacteria harbored in environmental sources such as wild animals. Next, we differentiate wildlife from other animals in the context of how diverse taxa provide different information on antibiotic resistance in the environment. In the third section, we identify representative research and seminal works that illustrate important associations between the occurrence of antibiotic resistant bacteria in wildlife and anthropogenic inputs into the environment. For example, we highlight numerous investigations that support the premise that anthropogenic inputs into the environment drive the occurrence of antibiotic resistance in bacteria harbored by free-ranging wildlife. Additionally, we summarize previous research demonstrating foraging as a mechanism by which wildlife may be exposed to anthropogenic antibiotic resistance contamination in the environment. In the fourth section of our review, we summarize molecular evidence for the acquisition and dissemination of resistance among bacteria harbored by wildlife. In the fifth section, we identify what we believe to be important data gaps and potential future directions that other researchers may find useful towards the development of efficient, informative, and impactful investigations of antibiotic resistant bacteria in wildlife. Finally, we conclude our review by highlighting the need to move from surveys that simply identify antibiotic resistant bacteria in wildlife towards hypothesis-driven investigations that: (1) identify point sources of antibiotic resistance; (2) provide information on risk to human and animal health; (3) identify interventions that may interrupt environmentally mediated pathways of antibiotic resistance acquisition/transmission; and (4) evaluate whether management practices are leading to desirable outcomes.

Journal of Wildlife Diseases↗

USGS2005

The no-project alternative analysis: An early product of the Tahoe Decision Support System

We report on the development of a No-project alternative analysis (NPAA) or “business as usual” scenario with respect to a 20-year projection of 21 indicators of environmental and socioeconomic conditions in the Lake Tahoe Basin for the Tahoe Regional Planning Agency (TRPA). Our effort was inspired by earlier work that investigated the tradeoffs between an environmental and an economic objective. The NPAA study has implications for a longer term goal of building a Tahoe Decision Support System (TDSS) to assist the TRPA and other Basin agencies in assessing the outcomes of management strategies. The NPAA assumes no major deviations from current management practices or from recent environmental or societal trends and planned Environmental Improvement Program (EIP) projects. Quantitative “scenario generation” tools were constructed to simulate site-specific land uses, various population categories, and associated vehicle miles traveled. Projections of each indicator’s attainment status were made by building visual conceptual models of the relevant natural and social processes, extrapolating trends, and using available models, research, and expert opinion. We present results of the NPAA, projected indicator status, key factors affecting the indicators, indicator functionality, and knowledge gaps. One important result is that current management practices may slow the loss or degradation of environmental qualities but not halt or reverse it. Our analysis also predicts an increase in recreation and commuting into and within the basin, primarily in private vehicles. Private vehicles, which are a critical mechanism by which the Basin population affects the surrounding environment, are a key determinant of air-quality indicators, a source of particulate matter affecting Secchi depth, a source of noise, and a factor in recreational and scenic quality, largely owing to congestion. Key uncertainties in the NPAA include climate change, EIP project effectiveness, and external population, economic activity, and air pollution.

Lake Tahoe Basin↗

USGS2013

Challenge theme 4: People in the Borderlands: Chapter 6 in United States-Mexican Borderlands: Facing tomorrow's challenges through USGS science

The management of shared resources in the United States–Mexican border region requires cooperation from the people of both countries to assess and understand their relation to the environment. Society is dependent on the long-term healthy functioning of ecosystems and their ability to supply food and raw materials. Likewise, resources and services obtained from nature could be used efficiently within the society. A more equitable distribution of costs and benefits related to goods and services can lead to fewer tensions and a higher quality of life for all the people in the Borderlands. Urban development, background contamination from mineral ore deposits, irrigation, sewage effluent, and even global climate change all have the potential to alter the stability of the fragile systems in the Borderlands (Brady and others, 2001, 2002; Norman, 2007, 2010; Gu and others, 2008; Norman, Gray, and others, 2008; Norman, Hirsch, and Ward, 2008; Norman, Callegary, and others, 2010; Norman, Huth, and others, 2010; Norman, Levick, and others, 2010; Norman, Tallent-Halsell, and others, 2010; Norman, Villarreal, and others 2012). Social efficiency means that because resources should be used where they are needed most, they should be distributed proportionally among human societies and individuals (Azar and others, 1996). Despite the critical role natural resources play in maintaining human and environmental health, current knowledge of the manner in which natural and human-caused forces interact to limit these resources—including their quality and quantity (such as through spatiotemporal changes in precipitation, evapotranspiration, pumping of groundwater, and release of contaminants)—is inadequate. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is trying to understand the relation between changing landscapes, changing demographics, and a changing climate in the Borderlands while the environmental, economic, and societal issues continue to be intertwined between the two nations.

United States-Mexico Borderlands↗

USGS2023

Groundwater prospecting using a multi-technique framework in the lower Casas Grandes Basin, Chihuahua, México

Groundwater is a strategic resource for economic development, social justice, environmental sustainability, and water governance. The lower Casas Grandes River Basin, located in the state of Chihuahua, México, is in a semi-arid region with increasing groundwater demand and regional challenges such as drought and depletion of aquifers. Even though there is official information about the availability of groundwater, a comprehensive aquifer characterization requiring an interdisciplinary investigation using a diverse suite of tools and multiple data sources has yet to be carried out. This study presents a multi-technique framework to evaluate potential sites to drill for groundwater resources and reduce the risk of unsuccessful drilling. The main components of the methodology include wellhead leveling correction with a differential global positioning survey to define piezometric levels, principal component analysis using LANDSAT-8 images, application of geospatial tools, geophysics analysis using time domain electromagnetic surveys (TDES) and vertical electric soundings (VES), and structural geohydrology to define aquifer characteristics. The results showed that using the proposed framework steps improved the possibility of identifying subsurface layers with lower resistivity values that could be related to groundwater. Low resistivity values (35 Ohm-m) were found at depths from 50 to 85 m at sites where the regional static water level reached a depth of 245 m, indicating the potential location of a shallow groundwater resource at a site where the intersection of a fracture trace was identified. This procedure can be used in other regions in the world where limited information is available for groundwater exploration, thus reducing the risk of drilling dry wells in complex hydrogeological environments.

Lower Casas Grandes Basin, Chihuahua↗

USGS2007

Surficial sediment character of the New York-New Jersey offshore continental shelf region: A GIS compilation

Broad continental shelf regions such as the New York Bight are the product of a complex geologic history and dynamic oceanographic processes, dominated by the Holocene marine transgression (>100 m sea-level rise) following the end of the last Pleistocene ice advance ~ 20,000 years ago. The area of the U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone (U.S. EEZ) territory, extending 200 nautical miles seaward from the coast, is larger than the continental U.S. and contains submerged landforms that provide a variety of natural functions and societal benefits, such as: critical habitats for fisheries, ship navigation and homeland security, and engineering activities (i.e. oil and gas platforms, pipeline and cable routes, potential wind-energy-generation sites). Some parts of the continental margins, particularly inner-continental shelf regions, also contain unconsolidated hard-mineral deposits such as sand and gravel that are regarded as potential aggregate resources to meet or augment needs not met by onshore deposits (Williams, 1992). The present distribution of surficial sediment off the northeastern United States is shaped from the deposits left by the last glaciation and reflects the cumulative effects of sediment erosion, transport, sorting, and deposition by storm and tidal processes during the Holocene rise in sea level. As a result, the sediments on the sea floor represent both an historical record of former conditions and a guide to possible future sedimentary environments. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) through the Coastal and Marine Geology Program, in cooperation with the University of Colorado and other partners, has compiled extant sediment character and textural data as well as other geologic information on the sea floor from all regions around the U.S. into the usSEABED data system (Reid and others, 2005; Buczkowski and others, 2006; Reid and others, 2006). The usSEABED system, which contains information on sediment grain size and lithology for more than 340,500 stations within the U.S. EEZ. has been developed and populated with data as part of the USGS Marine Aggregate Resources and Processes and the National Benthic Habitats projects in order to provide the base-line data needed to update the current maps of offshore surficial geologic character and sediment distribution. The maps are also used to characterize benthic sea floor environments important for marine ecosystems. U.S. Geological Survey, Data Series 118 (Reid and others, 2005), of the usSEABED data release series, represents the combined efforts of the USGS and several other government agencies to provide a unified resource for accessing and preserving records of U.S. east coast sea floor geologic information and sediment texture data. For this present report, we have chosen to focus on the New York-New Jersey region, an area that has been intensely studied by the USGS for many years to address many complex issues. This report illustrates the uses of the usSEABED database for GIS applications, while offering additional insight into the resources and data available from the USGS and its collaborative institutions. This report is based on data contained in U.S. Geological Survey Data Series 118 (Reid and others, 2005) and shows an assortment of example GIS products that are possible using usSEABED. All data are intended to be GIS-ready and should not require any additional cleanup, formatting, or renaming of fields in order to use the data in a Geographic Information System. This project employs the Environmental Systems Research Institute's (ESRI) ArcView™ software. Many of these maps were made as part of the ongoing USGS study to assess marine aggregate resources offshore New York and New Jersey, but these maps can serve many other purposes. The marine science community, educators, students and others are encouraged to use these data to generate GIS products for their own purposes. The objectives of the Marine Aggregate Resources and Processes project are to produce a series of new geologic maps and reports of the sea floor that will provide scientific insights into the character and geologic development of U.S. continental margins and to use these maps and information to assess the potential availability of offshore sand and gravel resources. The mapping and aggregate resource assessments are being conducted on a national scale using the usSEABED data base as described in Williams and others (2003). Potential uses for these data include: (1) defining the geological variability of the sea floor in relation to benthic habitat diversity; (2) improving our understanding of the processes that control the distribution and transport of bottom sediments and benthic habitats; (3) locating aggregate resources for beach nourishment and industrial applications; and (4) providing a detailed geospatial framework for future marine science research, monitoring, and management activities. The initial assessments are in progress for the New York Bight and Louisiana offshore areas.

New Jersey, New York↗

USGS2008

Bioassay for estimating the biogenic methane-generating potential of coal samples

Generation of secondary biogenic methane in coal beds is likely controlled by a combination of factors such as the bioavailability of coal carbon, the presence of a microbial community to convert coal carbon to methane, and an environment supporting microbial growth and methanogenesis. A set of treatments and controls was developed to bioassay the bioavailability of coal for conversion to methane under defined laboratory conditions. Treatments included adding a well-characterized consortium of bacteria and methanogens (enriched from modern wetland sediments) and providing conditions to support endemic microbial activity. The contribution of desorbed methane in the bioassays was determined in treatments with bromoethane sulfonic acid, an inhibitor of microbial methanogenesis. The bioassay compared 16 subbituminous coal samples collected from beds in Texas (TX), Wyoming (WY), and Alaska (AK), and two bituminous coal samples from Pennsylvania (PA). New biogenic methane was observed in several samples of subbituminous coal with the microbial consortium added, but endemic activity was less commonly observed. The highest methane generation [80 µmol methane/g coal (56 scf/ton or 1.75 cm 3 /g)] was from a south TX coal sample that was collected from a non-gas-producing well. Subbituminous coals from the Powder River Basin, WY and North Slope Borough, AK contained more sorbed (original) methane than the TX coal sample and generated 0–23 µmol/g (up to 16 scf/ton or 0.5 cm 3 /g) new biogenic methane in the bioassay. Standard indicators of thermal maturity such as burial depth, nitrogen content, and calorific value did not explain differences in biogenic methane among subbituminous coal samples. No original methane was observed in two bituminous samples from PA, nor was any new methane generated in bioassays of these samples. The bioassay offers a new tool for assessing the potential of coal for biogenic methane generation, and provides a platform for studying the mechanisms involved in this economically important activity.

International Journal of Coal Geology↗

USGS1954

Sedimentary facies of iron-formation

The sedimentary iron -formations of Precambrian age in the Lake Superior region can be divided on the basis of the dominant original iron mineral into four principal facies : sulfide, carbonate, oxide, and silicate. As chemical sediments, these rocks reflect certain aspects of the chemistry of the depositional environments. The major control, at least for the sulfide, carbonate, and oxide types, probably was the oxidation potential. The evidence indicates that deposition took place in restricted basins, which were separated from the open sea by thresholds that inhibited free circulation and permitted development of abnormalities in oxidation potential and water composition. The sporadic distribution of metamorphism and of later oxidation permits description of the primary facies on the basis of unoxidized, essentially unmetamorphosed material. The sulfide facies is represented by black slates in which pyrite may make up as much as 40 percent of the rock. The free-carbon content of these rocks typically ranges from 5 to 15 percent, indicating that ultra-stagnant conditions prevailed during deposition. Locally, the pyritic rocks contain layers of iron -rich carbonate. The carbonate facies consists, in its purer form, of interbedded iron -rich carbonate and chert. It is a product of an environment in which oxygen concentration was sufficiently high to destroy most of the organic material but not high enough to permit formation of ferric compounds. The oxide facies is found as two principal types, one characterized by magnetite and the other by hematite. Both minerals appear to be of primary origin. The magnetite-banded rock is one of the dominant lithologies in the region; it consists typically of magnetite interlayered with chert, carbonate, or iron silicate, or combinations of the three. Its mineralogy and association suggest origin under weakly oxidizing to moderately reducing conditions, but the mode of precipitation of magnetite is not clearly understood. The hematite-banded rocks consist of finely crystalline hematite interlayered with chert or jasper. Oolitic structure is common. This facies doubtless accumulated in a strongly oxidizing, probably near-shore, environment similar to that in which younger hema-titic ironstones such as the Clinton oolite were deposited. The silicate facies contains one or more of the hydrous ferrous silicates (greenalite, minnesotaite, stilpnomelane, chlorite) as a major constituent. Granule structure, similar to that of glauconite, is typical of some varieties; others are nongranular and finely laminated. The most common association of the silicate rocks is with either carbonate- or magnetite-bearing rocks, which suggests that the optimum conditions for deposition ranged from slightly oxidizing to slightly reducing. The relationship between the iron -rich rocks and volcanism, stressed by many authors, is considered by the writer to be structural, not chemical: in the Lake Superior region both iron -deposition and volcanism are believed to be related to geosynclinal development during Huronian time. In Michigan, the lower Huronian rocks are iron -poor quartzite and dolomite-typical "stable-shelf" deposits; much of the upper Huronian consists of iron -poor graywacke and slate with associated volcanic rocks -a typical "geosynclinal" assemblage. Thus the iron -rich beds of the middle Huronian and lower part of the upper Huronian were deposited during a transitional stage in structural history. The major environmental requirement for deposition of iron - formation is the closed or restricted basin; this requirement coincides in time with what would be a normal stage in evolution of the geosyncline: namely, structural development of offshore buckles or swells that subsequently develop into island arcs characterized by volcanism.

Lake Superior↗

USGS2016

Modeled effects of soil acidification on long-term ecological and economic outcomes for managed forests in the Adirondack region (USA)

Sugar maple ( Acer saccharum ) is among the most ecologically and economically important tree species in North America, and its growth and regeneration is often the focus of silvicultural practices in northern hardwood forests. A key stressor for sugar maple (SM) is acid rain, which depletes base cations from poorly-buffered forest soils and has been associated with much lower SM vigor, growth, and recruitment. However, the potential interactions between forest management and soil acidification – and their implications for the sustainability of SM and its economic and cultural benefits – have not been investigated. In this study, we simulated the development of 50 extant SM stands in the western Adirondack region of NY (USA) for 100 years under different soil chemical conditions and silvicultural prescriptions. We found that interactions between management prescription and soil base saturation will strongly shape the ability to maintain SM in managed forests. Below 12% base saturation, SM did not regenerate sufficiently after harvest and was replaced mainly by red maple ( Acer rubrum ) and American beech ( Fagus grandifolia ). Loss of SM on acid-impaired sites was predicted regardless of whether the shelterwood or diameter-limit prescriptions were used. On soils with sufficient base saturation, models predicted that SM will regenerate after harvest and be sustained for future rotations. We then estimated how these different post-harvest outcomes, mediated by acid impairment of forest soils, would affect the potential monetary value of ecosystem services provided by SM forests. Model simulations indicated that a management strategy focused on syrup production – although not feasible across the vast areas where acid impairment has occurred – may generate the greatest economic return. Although pollution from acid rain is declining, its long-term legacy in forest soils will shape future options for sustainable forestry and ecosystem stewardship in the northern hardwood forests of North America.

New York↗

USGS2025

Wildfire risk information sources and the acceptability of fuels treatments near select WUI communities in the Western United States

Fuels treatments intended to reduce fuel loads and improve forest health on public lands offer one way to reduce wildfire hazards in the wildland-urban interface (WUI), where the natural and built environments meet. However, for fuels treatment implementation to be successful, it must comply with regulatory and scientific standards and be supported by local communities, as lack of acceptance can lead to alterations, delays, or abandonment. To foster support, public land managers can engage directly with residents in communities near treatment areas through various communication channels or engage indirectly through trusted local partners. This research uses paired household survey and observed parcel-level wildfire risk assessment data to investigate wildfire risk information sources' role in the acceptability of fuels treatment approaches on public lands near select WUI communities in the Western United States. We find that information deemed useful from sources is often positively correlated with acceptability, while information deemed not useful is sometimes negatively correlated. Local sources of information tend to be widely received, perceived as useful, and have positive correlations with acceptability, while nonlocal sources vary in their receipt, perceived usefulness, and correlations with acceptability. Public land managers, particularly those from national organizations, may benefit from leveraging and aligning messaging with trusted local partners. Developing fuels treatment plans that consider existing local sentiments may facilitate public trust in managers and acceptability of treatments.

Colorado, New Mexico, Oregon, Washington, Wyoming↗

USGS2020

Numerical simulation of groundwater availability in central Moloka‘i, Hawai‘i

Since the 1990s, increased chloride concentrations of water pumped from wells (much of which is used for drinking water) and the effects of withdrawals on groundwater-dependent ecosystems have led to concerns over groundwater availability on the island of Molokaʻi, Hawaiʻi. An improved understanding of the hydrologic effects of proposed groundwater withdrawals is needed to ensure effective management of the groundwater resources of Molokaʻi, plan for possible growth, and accommodate cultural, social, and economic concerns. To address the information needs of managers and community stakeholders on Molokaʻi, the U.S. Geological Survey developed a numerical groundwater model capable of simulating salinity change and reduction in groundwater discharge in coastal areas of central and southern Molokaʻi. Estimates of groundwater recharge needed as input to the numerical groundwater model were made using a daily water budget for each decade during 1940−2012 (the period 2000−12 spanned 13 years) and the most current available data, including the distributions of monthly rainfall and potential evapotranspiration. Total island recharge during the decadal periods ranged from a low of about 189 Mgal/d during the 1970s to a high of 278 Mgal/d during the 1960s. These recharge estimates were used to develop an island-wide numerical groundwater model with simplifying assumptions (sharp interface between freshwater and saltwater; two-dimensional flow). The island-wide model provided estimates of groundwater inflows to the main area of interest simulated with a three-dimensional numerical groundwater model. Simulated withdrawal scenarios were selected in consultation with water managers and stakeholders and consisted of: (1) a baseline scenario using average recharge (1978−2007 rainfall and 2010 land cover) and average 2016−17 withdrawals; (2) a scenario using average recharge and withdrawals from existing wells at pending (as of January 2019) water-use permit rates; (3) six scenarios using average recharge and selected withdrawals from existing and proposed wells; and (4) a scenario using reduced recharge and selected withdrawals from existing and proposed wells. Results of the simulated withdrawal scenarios indicate that wells may be capable of producing groundwater with chloride concentrations below 250 mg/L at withdrawal rates exceeding average 2016−17 rates. However, the quality of water withdrawn from production wells is dependent on the rate and distribution of the withdrawals. For all nonbaseline scenarios, simulated groundwater discharge to the nearshore environment is reduced relative to the baseline scenario. Areas of discharge reduction may correspond to areas used for cultural or subsistence purposes. The three-dimensional numerical groundwater model developed for this study utilizes the latest available hydrologic and geologic information and is a useful tool for understanding the hydrologic effects of additional groundwater withdrawals in central Molokaʻi. The model has several limitations, including its nonuniqueness and inability to account for local-scale heterogeneities.

Hawaii↗

USGS2017

Genetic and grade and tonnage models for sandstone-hosted roll-type uranium deposits, Texas Coastal Plain, USA

The coincidence of a number of geologic and climatic factors combined to create conditions favorable for the development of mineable concentrations of uranium hosted by Eocene through Pliocene sandstones in the Texas Coastal Plain. Here 254 uranium occurrences, including 169 deposits, 73 prospects, 6 showings and 4 anomalies, have been identified. About 80 million pounds of U 3 O 8 have been produced and about 60 million pounds of identified producible U 3 O 8 remain in place. The development of economic roll-type uranium deposits requires a source, large-scale transport of uranium in groundwater, and deposition in reducing zones within a sedimentary sequence. The weight of the evidence supports a source from thick sequences of volcanic ash and volcaniclastic sediment derived mostly from the Trans-Pecos volcanic field and Sierra Madre Occidental that lie west of the region. The thickest accumulations of source material were deposited and preserved south and west of the San Marcos arch in the Catahoula Formation. By the early Oligocene, a formerly uniformly subtropical climate along the Gulf Coast transitioned to a zoned climate in which the southwestern portion of Texas Coastal Plain was dry, and the eastern portion humid. The more arid climate in the southwestern area supported weathering of volcanic ash source rocks during pedogenesis and early diagenesis, concentration of uranium in groundwater and movement through host sediments. During the middle Tertiary Era, abundant clastic sediments were deposited in thick sequences by bed-load dominated fluvial systems in long-lived channel complexes that provided transmissive conduits favoring transport of uranium-rich groundwater. Groundwater transported uranium through permeable sandstones that were hydrologically connected with source rocks, commonly across formation boundaries driven by isostatic loading and eustatic sea level changes. Uranium roll fronts formed as a result of the interaction of uranium-rich groundwater with either (1) organic-rich debris adjacent to large long-lived fluvial channels and barrier–bar sequences or (2) extrinsic reductants entrained in formation water or discrete gas that migrated into host units via faults and along the flanks of salt domes and shale diapirs. The southwestern portion of the region, the Rio Grande embayment, contains all the necessary factors required for roll-type uranium deposits. However, the eastern portion of the region, the Houston embayment, is challenged by a humid environment and a lack of source rock and transmissive units, which may combine to preclude the deposition of economic deposits. A grade and tonnage model for the Texas Coastal Plain shows that the Texas deposits represent a lower tonnage subset of roll-type deposits that occur around the world, and required aggregation of production centers into deposits based on geologic interpretation for the purpose of conducting a quantitative mineral resource assessment.

Texas↗

USGS2000

Cruise report RV Ocean Surveyor cruise O-1-00-GM the bathymetry and acoustic backscatter of the Pinnacles area, northern Gulf of Mexico May 23, through June 10, 2000 Venice, LA to Venice, LA

An extensive deep (~100 m) reef tract occurs on the Mississippi-Alabama outer continental shelf (OCS). The tract, known as "The Pinnacles", is apparently part of a sequence of drowned reef complexes along the "40-fathom" shelf edge of the northern Gulf of Mexico (Ludwick and Walton, 1957). It is critical to determine the accurate geomorphology of deep-reefs because of their importance as benthic habitats for fisheries. The Pinnacles were mapped by Ludwick and Walton (1957) using a single-beam echo sounder but the spatial extent and morphology were interpreted from a series of widely separated, poorly navigated bathymetric profiles. Other recent studies, supported by Minerals Management Service (MMS), used towed sidescan sonars and single-channel seismic-reflection profiling. None of the existing studies provide the quality of geomorphic data necessary for reasonable habitat studies. The fish faunas of shallow hermatypic reefs have been well studied, but those of deep ahermatypic reefs have relatively ignored. The ecology of deep ahermatypic reefs is fundamentally different from hermatipic reefs because autochthonous intracellular symbiotic zooxanthellae (the carbon source for hermatypic corals) do not form the base of the trophic web. Instead, exogenous plankton, transported to the reef by currents, serves as the primary carbon source. Deep OCS reefs also lie below the practical working depths for SCUBA; consequently, remote investigations from a ship or in situ investigations using submersibles or ROVs are required. Community structure and trophodynamics of demersal fishes of the Pinnacles are presently the focus of USGS reseach. A goal of the research is to answer questions concerning the relataive roles played by geomorphology and surficial geology in the interaction with and control of biological differentiation. OCS reefs are important because we now know that such areas are important coral reef fish havens, key spawning 2 sites, and a critical early larval and juvenile habitats for economically important sport/food fishes. Also, deep-reef ecosystems as well as the fish populations they sustain are impacted by intensive oil-field development. It is now known that deep OCS reefs function as a key source of re-population (via seasonal and ontogenetic migration) of already heavily impacted inshore reefs. A reflection of this realization is the recent closure by the Gulf States Fisheries Management Council of a 600 mi 2 area of the Florida Middle Grounds (another unmapped major "40-fathom" OCS reef complex) to commercial fishing to preserve grouper spawning aggregations. It is known that the Pinnacles reefs support a lush fauna of ahermatypic hard corals, soft corals, black corals, sessile crinoids and sponges—together forming a living habitat for a well-developed fish fauna. The fish fauna comprises typical Caribbean reef fishes and Carolinian shelf fishes, plus epipelagic fishes, and a few deep-sea fishes. The base of the megafaunal invertebrate food web is plankton, borne by essentially continuous semi-laminar currents flowing predominantly out of the SW, up, along and across the shelf edge. These currents are intercepted by pinnacles reefs, which lie roughly in two linear tracts, parallel to the coastline (see fig. 1 in report). USGS research initiated in 1997 (Sulak et al., in progress) has demonstrated that the Pinnacles reef fish fauna is dominated by planktivorous fishes. Ongoing food habits, trophic web and stable isotope analyses by the USGS are reinforcing a basic picture of deep OCS reefs as ecosystems based on exogenous current-borne plankton. Long-term current meter deployments have demonstrated that the >3 m, <16m relief of the Pinnacles reefs disrupts the prevailing currents, inducing local complexity (F. Kelly, Texas A&M Univ., pers. comm.) favorable to plankton and planktivores. Geodetically accurate bathymetry maps, coregistered with calibrated acoustic backscatter maps, are critical to delineate benthic biotopes, and are essential to correlate biological community differentiation with the physical environment. Previous mapping of the Pinnacles area using the TAMU towed single-beam sidescan system (Anonymous., 1999) employed technology with inherent deficiencies in backscatter calibration, bathymetric precision, and geo-referencing. The resulting bathymetric interpretations of TAMU data are further degraded by ship-track-parallel artifacts that obliterate geomorphology rendering them inadequate to provide high-resolution mapping of individual target reefs (typical maximum relief 15 m, diameter 200-500 m). The sidescan-sonar surveys of the area (Laswell et al., 1990) suffer many of the same deficiencies as the TAMU data so they add no quantitative and little qualitative information about the geomorphology and surficial geology.

Gulf of Mexico, the Pinnacles area↗