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At least 181 records · Page 10Linked to original sources
USGS2025

A system dynamics model to understand the integrated ecological and human dimension aspects of wildlife health and disease management

Chronic wasting disease (CWD) presents an ongoing challenge for the management of deer populations and sustaining harvest opportunities across North America. Existing disease models often fail to fully capture the complex interplay between disease dynamics, host ecology, and socio-economic factors. We developed a comprehensive system dynamics (SD) model that integrates demographic, epidemiological, ecological, and socio-economic processes within a single model to more fully characterize the complex network of causal feedbacks throughout the system. The model was calibrated using a Bayesian approach that incorporates prior knowledge to generate biologically interpretable outcomes, even with sparse data. For estimating the joint posterior distribution of model parameters, we leveraged time series of deer abundance, harvest composition, genetic profiles, CWD surveillance, and hunter demographics and behavior. Model outputs reproduced key system behaviors, including observed CWD prevalence trends, deer population dynamics, and hunter license purchasing patterns. Model predictions were most sensitive to parameters governing initial deer population size and recruitment. While model predictions generally aligned with observed data, discrepancies in early CWD detection and overestimation of the reactivation of long-inactive hunters reflect data limitations and modeling challenges. Key results suggest that indirect transmission is necessary to explain observed prevalence, that transmission is moderately density-dependent, and that observed population-level genetic shifts driven by CWD may play a role in transmission and progression. The SD modelling approach enabled estimation of difficult-to-measure parameters and identified potential leverage points for management—such as prioritizing increasing participation in antlerless harvest of existing hunters over the recruitment of new hunters. This integrated modeling approach offers a flexible foundation for adaptive wildlife disease management and emphasizes the value of unifying biological and human dimension processes to better inform effective, evidence-based policy.

BioRxiv↗
USGS2019

Impact of prey occupancy and other ecological and anthropogenic factors on Tiger distribution in Thailand’s Western Forest Complex

Despite conservation efforts, large mammals such as tigers (Panthera tigris) and their main prey, gaur (Bos gaurus), banteng (Bos javanicus), and sambar (Rusa unicolor), are highly threatened and declining across their entire range. The only large viable source population of tigers in mainland Southeast Asia occurs in Thailand's Western Forest Complex (WEFCOM), an approximately 19,000 km 2 landscape of 17 contiguous protected areas. We used an occupancy modeling framework, which accounts for imperfect detection, to identify the factors that affect tiger distribution at the approximate scale of a female tiger's home range, 64 km 2 , and site use at a scale of 1-km 2 . At the larger scale, we estimated the proportion of sites at WEFCOM that were occupied by tigers; at the finer scale, we identified the key variables that influence site-use and developed a predictive distribution map. At both scales, we examined key anthropogenic and ecological factors that help explain tiger distribution and habitat use, including probabilities of gaur, banteng, and sambar occurrence from a companion study. Occupancy estimated at the 64-km 2 scale was primarily influenced by the combined presence of all three large prey species, and 37% or 5,858 km 2 of the landscape was predicted to be occupied by tigers. In contrast, site use estimated at the scale of 1 km 2 was most strongly influenced by the presence of sambar. By modeling occupancy while accounting for imperfect probability of detection, we established reliable benchmark data on the distribution of tigers in WEFCOM. This study also identified factors that limit tiger distributions; which managers can then target to expand tiger distribution and guide recovery elsewhere in Southeast Asia.

Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2011

On thinning of chains in MCMC

1. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a simulation technique that has revolutionised the analysis of ecological data, allowing the fitting of complex models in a Bayesian framework. Since 2001, there have been nearly 200 papers using MCMC in publications of the Ecological Society of America and the British Ecological Society, including more than 75 in the journal Ecology and 35 in the Journal of Applied Ecology . 2. We have noted that many authors routinely 'thin' their simulations, discarding all but every k th sampled value; of the studies we surveyed with details on MCMC implementation, 40% reported thinning. 3. Thinning is often unnecessary and always inefficient, reducing the precision with which features of the Markov chain are summarised. The inefficiency of thinning MCMC output has been known since the early 1990's, long before MCMC appeared in ecological publications. 4. We discuss the background and prevalence of thinning, illustrate its consequences, discuss circumstances when it might be regarded as a reasonable option and recommend against routine thinning of chains unless necessitated by computer memory limitations.

Methods in Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2015

Fire effects on aquatic ecosystems: An assessment of the current state of the science

Fire is a prevalent feature of many landscapes and has numerous and complex effects on geological, hydrological, ecological, and economic systems. In some regions, the frequency and intensity of wildfire have increased in recent years and are projected to escalate with predicted climatic and landuse changes. In addition, prescribed burns continue to be used in many parts of the world to clear vegetation for development projects, encourage desired vegetation, and reduce fuel loads. Given the prevalence of fire on the landscape, authors of papers in this special series examine the complexities of fire as a disturbance shaping freshwater ecosystems and highlight the state of the science. These papers cover key aspects of fire effects that range from vegetation loss and recovery in watersheds to effects on hydrology and water quality with consequences for communities (from algae to fish), food webs, and ecosystem processes (e.g., organic matter subsidies, nutrient cycling) across a range of scales. The results presented in this special series of articles expand our knowledge of fire effects in different biomes, water bodies, and geographic regions, encompassing aquatic population, community, and ecosystem responses. In this overview, we summarize each paper and emphasize its contributions to knowledge on fire ecology and freshwater ecosystems. This overview concludes with a list of 7 research foci that are needed to further our knowledge of fire effects on aquatic ecosystems, including research on: 1) additional biomes and geographic regions; 2) additional habitats, including wetlands and lacustrine ecosystems; 3) different fire severities, sizes, and spatial configurations; and 4) additional response variables (e.g., ecosystem processes) 5) over long (>5 y) time scales 6) with more rigorous study designs and data analyses, and 7) consideration of the effects of fire management practices and policies on aquatic ecosystems.

Freshwater Science↗
USGS2012

Downscaling future climate scenarios to fine scales for hydrologic and ecological modeling and analysis

Introduction Evaluating the environmental impacts of climate change on water resources and biological components of the landscape is an integral part of hydrologic and ecological investigations, and the resultant land and resource management in the twenty-first century. Impacts of both climate and simulated hydrologic parameters on ecological processes are relevant at scales that reflect the heterogeneity and complexity of landscapes. At present, simulations of climate change available from global climate models [GCMs] require downscaling for hydrologic or ecological applications. Methods Using statistically downscaled future climate projections developed using constructed analogues, a methodology was developed to further downscale the projections spatially using a gradient-inverse-distance-squared approach for application to hydrologic modeling at 270-m spatial resolution. Results This paper illustrates a methodology to downscale and bias-correct national GCMs to subkilometer scales that are applicable to fine-scale environmental processes. Four scenarios were chosen to bracket the range of future emissions put forth by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Fine-scale applications of downscaled datasets of ecological and hydrologic correlations to variation in climate are illustrated. Conclusions The methodology, which includes a sequence of rigorous analyses and calculations, is intended to reduce the addition of uncertainty to the climate data as a result of the downscaling while providing the fine-scale climate information necessary for ecological analyses. It results in new but consistent data sets for the US at 4 km, the southwest US at 270 m, and California at 90 m and illustrates the utility of fine-scale downscaling to analyses of ecological processes influenced by topographic complexity.

Ecological Processes↗
USGS2010

Fire, flow and dynamic equilibrium in stream macroinvertebrate communities

The complex effects of disturbances on ecological communities can be further complicated by subsequent perturbations within an ecosystem. We investigated how wildfire interacts with annual variations in peak streamflow to affect the stability of stream macroinvertebrate communities in a central Idaho wilderness, USA. We conducted a 4-year retrospective analysis of unburned (n = 7) and burned (n = 6) catchments, using changes in reflectance values (??NBR) from satellite imagery to quantify the percentage of each catchment's riparian and upland vegetation that burned at high and low severity. For this wildland fire complex, increasing riparian burn severity and extent were associated with greater year-to-year variation, rather than a perennial increase, in sediment loads, organic debris, large woody debris (LWD) and undercut bank structure. Temporal changes in these variables were correlated with yearly peak flow in burned catchments but not in unburned reference catchments, indicating that an interaction between fire and flow can result in decreased habitat stability in burned catchments. Streams in more severely burned catchments exhibited increasingly dynamic macroinvertebrate communities and did not show increased similarity to reference streams over time. Annual variability in macroinvertebrates was attributed, predominantly, to the changing influence of sediment, LWD, riparian cover and organic debris, as quantities of these habitat components fluctuated annually depending on burn severity and annual peak streamflows. These analyses suggest that interactions among fire, flow and stream habitat may increase inter-annual habitat variability and macroinvertebrate community dynamics for a duration approaching the length of the historic fire return interval of the study area. ?? 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Freshwater Biology↗
USGS2020

Magnitude and direction of stream–forest community interactions change with timescale

Networks of direct and indirect biotic interactions underpin the complex dynamics and stability of ecological systems, yet experimental and theoretical studies often yield conflicting evidence regarding the direction (positive or negative) or magnitude of these interactions. We revisited pioneering data sets collected at the deciduous forested Horonai Stream and conducted ecosystem‐level syntheses to demonstrate that the direction of direct and indirect interactions can change depending on the timescale of observation. Prior experimental studies showed that terrestrial prey that enter the stream from the adjacent forest caused positive indirect effects on aquatic invertebrates during summer by diverting fish consumption. Seasonal and annual estimates of secondary production and organic matter flows along food web pathways demonstrate that this seasonal input of terrestrial invertebrate prey increases production of certain fish species, reversing the indirect effect on aquatic invertebrates from positive at the seasonal timescale to negative at the annual timescale. Even though terrestrial invertebrate prey contributed 54% of the annual organic matter flux to fishes, primarily during summer, fish still consumed 98% of the aquatic invertebrate annual production, leading to top‐down control that is not revealed in short‐term experiments and demonstrating that aquatic prey may be a limiting resource for fishes. Changes in the direction or magnitude of interactions may be a key factor creating nonlinear or stabilizing feedbacks in complex systems, and these dynamics can be revealed by merging experimental and comparative approaches at different scales.

Ecology↗
USGS2015

Progress and challenges in coupled hydrodynamic-ecological estuarine modeling

Numerical modeling has emerged over the last several decades as a widely accepted tool for investigations in environmental sciences. In estuarine research, hydrodynamic and ecological models have moved along parallel tracks with regard to complexity, refinement, computational power, and incorporation of uncertainty. Coupled hydrodynamic-ecological models have been used to assess ecosystem processes and interactions, simulate future scenarios, and evaluate remedial actions in response to eutrophication, habitat loss, and freshwater diversion. The need to couple hydrodynamic and ecological models to address research and management questions is clear because dynamic feedbacks between biotic and physical processes are critical interactions within ecosystems. In this review, we present historical and modern perspectives on estuarine hydrodynamic and ecological modeling, consider model limitations, and address aspects of model linkage, skill assessment, and complexity. We discuss the balance between spatial and temporal resolution and present examples using different spatiotemporal scales. Finally, we recommend future lines of inquiry, approaches to balance complexity and uncertainty, and model transparency and utility. It is idealistic to think we can pursue a “theory of everything” for estuarine models, but recent advances suggest that models for both scientific investigations and management applications will continue to improve in terms of realism, precision, and accuracy.

Estuaries and Coasts↗
USGS2009

The ecology of dust

Wind erosion and associated dust emissions play a fundamental role in many ecological processes and provide important biogeochemical connectivity at scales ranging from individual plants up to the entire globe. Yet, most ecological studies do not explicitly consider dust‐driven processes, perhaps because most relevant research on aeolian (wind‐driven) processes has been presented in a geosciences rather than an ecological context. To bridge this disciplinary gap, we provide a general overview of the ecological importance of dust, examine complex interactions between wind erosion and ecosystem dynamics from the scale of plants and surrounding space to regional and global scales, and highlight specific examples of how disturbance affects these interactions and their consequences. It is likely that changes in climate and intensification of land use will lead to increased dust production from many drylands. To address these issues, environmental scientists, land managers, and policy makers need to consider wind erosion and dust emissions more explicitly in resource management decisions.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗
USGS1996

A spatial decision support system for coastal management: A research project at the National Wetlands Research Center of the U.S. Geological Survey

Environmental resource managers and scientists are being challenged in developing strategies to manage complex coastal systems. From an ecological perspective, there are myriad dynamic, interrelated natural and human-induced processes that affect the health and stability of coastal systems. However, the problems associated with managing coastal resources usually transcend purely ecological factors when one considers societal needs and expectations from these resources. For example, at least nine Federal, State, and local government agencies, often with widely varying responsibilities or interests, are charged with managing environmental resources and/or regulating human activities within Louisiana's coastal systems; that number may be higher in other coastal areas of the United States. In many coastal systems, a declining resource base and environmental quality combined with an expanding human population exert increased demands on those systems. This results in a number of conflicting resource management and environmental impact assessment issues. The issues include determining the most cost-effective strategies for restoring degraded natural systems, local and regional planning for future urban and commercial development in or near sensitive coastal habitats, predicting impacts from acute and chronic pollutant discharges (oil spills, fecal coliform contamination) as well as from natural hazard damages to coastal systems, and optimal partitioning of coastal resources among competing user groups (e.g., commercial and recreational fishermen). Solving such complex environmental resource management problems often involves a multidisciplinary approach, requires computerized analytical modeling abilities to manipulate large quantities of spatial-temporal data according to a defined set of objectives or constraints, and needs a mechanism to provide quick responses for dynamic resource and environmental issues. For this, a GIS-based multifunctional Spatial Decision Support System (SDSS) is being developed at the National Wetlands Research Center of the U.S. Geological Survey (formerly the Southern Science Center of the US. Fish and Wildlife Service/National Biological Service).

Louisiana↗
USGS2021

Evaluating natural experiments in ecology: Using synthetic controls in assessments of remotely sensed land treatments

Many important ecological phenomena occur on large spatial scales and/or are unplanned and thus do not easily fit within analytical frameworks that rely on randomization, replication, and interspersed a priori controls for statistical comparison. Analyses of such large‐scale, natural experiments are common in the health and econometrics literature, where techniques have been developed to derive insight from large, noisy observational data sets. Here, we apply a technique from this literature, synthetic control, to assess landscape change with remote sensing data. The basic data requirements for synthetic control include (1) a discrete set of treated and untreated units, (2) a known date of treatment intervention, and (3) time series response data that include both pre‐ and post‐treatment outcomes for all units. Synthetic control generates a response metric for treated units relative to a no‐action alternative based on prior relationships between treated and unexposed groups. Using simulations and a case study involving a large‐scale brush‐clearing management event, we show how synthetic control can intuitively infer treatment effect sizes from satellite data, even in the presence of confounding noise from climate anomalies, long‐term vegetation dynamics, or sensor errors. We find that accuracy depends on the number and quality of potential control units, highlighting the importance of selecting appropriate control populations. Although we consider the synthetic control approach in the context of natural experiments with remote sensing data, we expect the methodology to have wider utility in ecology, particularly for systems with large, complex, and poorly replicated experimental units.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2024

Food-web dynamics of a floodplain mosaic overshadow the effects of engineered logjams for Pacific salmon and steelhead

Food webs vary in space and time. The structure and spatial arrangement of food webs are theorized to mediate temporal dynamics of energy flow, but empirical corroboration in intermediate-scale landscapes is scarce. River-floodplain landscapes encompass a mosaic of aquatic habitat patches and food webs, supporting a variety of aquatic consumers of conservation concern. How the structure and productivity of these patch-scale food webs change through time, and how floodplain restoration influences their dynamics, are unevaluated. We measured productivity and food-web dynamics across a mosaic of main-channel and side-channel habitats of the Methow River, WA, USA, during two study years (2009–2010; 2015–2016) and examined how food webs that sustained juvenile anadromous salmonids responded to habitat manipulation. By quantifying temporal variation in secondary production and organic matter flow across nontreated river-floodplain habitats and comparing that variation to a side channel treated with engineered logjams, we jointly confronted spatial food-web theory and assessed whether food-web dynamics in the treated side channel exceeded natural variation exhibited in nontreated habitats. We observed that organic matter flow through the more complex, main-channel food web was similar between study years, whereas organic matter flow through the simpler, side-channel food webs changed up to ~4-fold. In the side channel treated with engineered logjams, production of benthic invertebrates and juvenile salmonids increased between study years by 2× and 4×, respectively; however, these changes did not surpass the temporal variation observed in untreated habitats. For instance, juvenile salmonid production rose 17-fold in one untreated side-channel habitat, and natural aggregation of large wood in another coincided with a shift to community and food-web dominance by juvenile salmonids. Our findings suggest that interannual dynamism in material flux across floodplain habitat mosaics is interrelated with patchiness in food-web complexity and may overshadow the ecological responses to localized river restoration. Although this dynamism may inhibit detection of the ecological effects of river restoration, it may also act to stabilize aquatic ecosystems and buffer salmon and other species of conservation concern in the long term. As such, natural, landscape-level patchiness and dynamism in food webs should be integrated into conceptual foundations of process-based, river restoration.

Washington↗
USGS2018

Evaluation of targeted and untargeted effects-based monitoring tools to assess impacts of contaminants of emerging concern on fish in the South Platte River, CO

Rivers in the arid Western United States face increasing influences from anthropogenic contaminants due to population growth, urbanization, and drought. To better understand and more effectively track the impacts of these contaminants, biologically-based monitoring tools are increasingly being used to complement routine chemical monitoring. This study was initiated to assess the ability of both targeted and untargeted biologically-based monitoring tools to discriminate impacts of two adjacent wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) on Colorado's South Platte River. A cell-based estrogen assay ( in vitro , targeted) determined that water samples collected downstream of the larger of the two WWTPs displayed considerable estrogenic activity in its two separate effluent streams. Hepatic vitellogenin mRNA expression ( in vivo , targeted) and NMR-based metabolomic analyses ( in vivo , untargeted) from caged male fathead minnows also suggested estrogenic activity downstream of the larger WWTP, but detected significant differences in responses from its two effluent streams. The metabolomic results suggested that these differences were associated with oxidative stress levels. Finally, partial least squares regression was used to explore linkages between the metabolomics responses and the chemical contaminants that were detected at the sites. This analysis, along with univariate statistical approaches, identified significant covariance between the biological endpoints and estrone concentrations, suggesting the importance of this contaminant and recommending increased focus on its presence in the environment. These results underscore the benefits of a combined targeted and untargeted biologically-based monitoring strategy when used alongside contaminant monitoring to more effectively assess ecological impacts of exposures to complex mixtures in surface waters.

Colorado↗
USGS2008

Calibrating and testing a gap model for simulating forest management in the Oregon Coast Range

The complex mix of economic and ecological objectives facing today's forest managers necessitates the development of growth models with a capacity for simulating a wide range of forest conditions while producing outputs useful for economic analyses. We calibrated the gap model ZELIG to simulate stand-level forest development in the Oregon Coast Range as part of a landscape-scale assessment of different forest management strategies. Our goal was to incorporate the predictive ability of an empirical model with the flexibility of a forest succession model. We emphasized the development of commercial-aged stands of Douglas-fir, the dominant tree species in the study area and primary source of timber. In addition, we judged that the ecological approach of ZELIG would be robust to the variety of other forest conditions and practices encountered in the Coast Range, including mixed-species stands, small-scale gap formation, innovative silvicultural methods, and reserve areas where forests grow unmanaged for long periods of time. We parameterized the model to distinguish forest development among two ecoregions, three forest types and two site productivity classes using three data sources: chronosequences of forest inventory data, long-term research data, and simulations from an empirical growth-and-yield model. The calibrated model was tested with independent, long-term measurements from 11 Douglas-fir plots (6 unthinned, 5 thinned), 3 spruce-hemlock plots, and 1 red alder plot. ZELIG closely approximated developmental trajectories of basal area and large trees in the Douglas-fir plots. Differences between simulated and observed conifer basal area for these plots ranged from -2.6 to 2.4 m2/ha; differences in the number of trees/ha ???50 cm dbh ranged from -8.8 to 7.3 tph. Achieving these results required the use of a diameter-growth multiplier, suggesting some underlying constraints on tree growth such as the temperature response function. ZELIG also tended to overestimate regeneration of shade-tolerant trees and underestimate total tree density (i.e., higher rates of tree mortality). However, comparisons with the chronosequences of forest inventory data indicated that the simulated data are within the range of variability observed in the Coast Range. Further exploration and improvement of ZELIG is warranted in three key areas: (1) modeling rapid rates of conifer tree growth without the need for a diameter-growth multiplier; (2) understanding and remedying rates of tree mortality that were higher than those observed in the independent data; and (3) improving the tree regeneration module to account for competition with understory vegetation. ?? 2008 Elsevier B.V.

Forest Ecology and Management↗
USGS2020

The roles of flood magnitude and duration in controlling channel width and complexity on the Green River in Canyonlands, Utah, USA

Predictions of river channel adjustment to changes in streamflow regime based on relations between mean channel characteristics and mean flood magnitude can be useful to evaluate average channel response. However, because these relations assume equilibrium sediment transport, their applicability to cases where streamflow and sediment transport are decoupled may be limited. These general relations also lack the specificity that is required to connect specific characteristics of the streamflow and sediment regime with the dynamics of channel morphological change that create channel complexity, which is often of ecological interest. We integrate historical records of channel change, observations of scour and fill during a snowmelt flood, measurements of sediment transport, and predictions from a two-dimensional streamflow model to describe how annual peak flow magnitude and peak-flow duration interact with the upstream sediment supply to control channel form for a 15-km study reach on the regulated Green River in Canyonlands National Park, Utah. Two major decadal-scale episodes of channel narrowing have occurred within the study area. For each of these episodes, the reduction in average channel width was consistent with the change predicted by hydraulic geometry relations as a function of average flood magnitude. However, channel narrowing occurred during periods of exceptionally low annual floods. The most recent episode of channel narrowing occurred between 1988 and 2009, during low-flow cycles when the 5-yr mean peak flow was less than 60% of the long-term (1959–2016) mean peak flow. These findings, together with findings from previous studies, demonstrate that decreases in peak-flow magnitude caused by streamflow regulation, climate change, or a combination of those factors have driven episodes of channel narrowing on the Green River. Observations of streamflow, sediment-transport, and morphologic change coupled with predictions from a two-dimensional streamflow model indicate that peak flow magnitudes of at least 75% of the long-term mean peak flow are required to transport bed-material sand in suspension in all regions of the multi-thread channel and that the ~2-month duration of the snowmelt flood played an important role in creating conditions necessary to maintain channel conveyance. These results indicate that detailed characterizations of channel response such as these are needed to predict how river channels will respond to changes in streamflow regime that affect annual peak flow magnitude and duration.

Utah↗
USGS2024

Epidemiological modeling of SARS-CoV-2 in white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) reveals conditions for introduction and widespread transmission

Emerging infectious diseases with zoonotic potential often have complex socioecological dynamics and limited ecological data, requiring integration of epidemiological modeling with surveillance. Although our understanding of SARS-CoV-2 has advanced considerably since its detection in late 2019, the factors influencing its introduction and transmission in wildlife hosts, particularly white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ), remain poorly understood. We use a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Susceptible epidemiological model to investigate the spillover risk and transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in wild and captive white-tailed deer populations across various simulated scenarios. We found that captive scenarios pose a higher risk of SARS-CoV-2 introduction from humans into deer herds and subsequent transmission among deer, compared to wild herds. However, even in wild herds, the transmission risk is often substantial enough to sustain infections. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the strength of introduction from humans influences outbreak characteristics only to a certain extent. Transmission among deer was frequently sufficient for widespread outbreaks in deer populations, regardless of the initial level of introduction. We also explore the potential for fence line interactions between captive and wild deer to elevate outbreak metrics in wild herds that have the lowest risk of introduction and sustained transmission. Our results indicate that SARS-CoV-2 could be introduced and maintained in deer herds across a range of circumstances based on testing a range of introduction and transmission risks in various captive and wild scenarios. Our approach and findings will aid One Health strategies that mitigate persistent SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks in white-tailed deer populations and potential spillback to humans.

PLOS Computational Biology↗
USGS2010

Rejoinder: Sifting through model space

Observational data sets generated by complex processes are common in ecology. Traditionally these have been very challenging to analyze because of the limitations of available statistical tools. This seems to be changing, and these are exciting times to be involved with ecological statistics, not just because of the neo-Bayesian revival but also because of the proliferation of computationally intensive methods in general. It is now possible to fit much richer models to observational data than in the relatively recent past, which in turn has stimulated much interest in how to evaluate and compare such models. In such an immature, vibrant, and rapidly growing field, not everyone is going to agree on the best way to do things. This is reflected in the contrast of opinions offered by the discussants. Each offers a thoughtful and thought-provoking critique of our work that reflects the current thinking in a non-negligible segment of the ecological data analysis community. We want to thank them for their insights.

Ecology↗
USGS2013

United States-Mexican Borderlands: Facing tomorrow's challenges through USGS science

Along the nearly 3,200 kilometers (almost 2,000 miles) of the United States–Mexican border, in an area known as the Borderlands, we are witnessing the expression of the challenges of the 21st century. This circular identifies several challenge themes and issues associated with life and the environment in the Borderlands, listed below. The challenges are not one-sided; they do not originate in one country only to become problems for the other. The issues and concerns of each challenge theme flow in both directions across the border, and both nations feel their effects throughout the Borderlands and beyond. The clear message is that our two nations, the United States and Mexico, face the issues in these challenge themes together, and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) understands it must work with its counterparts, partners, and customers in both countries. Though the mission of the USGS is not to serve as land manager, law enforcer, or code regulator, its innovation and creativity and the scientific and technical depth of its capabilities can be directly applied to monitoring the conditions of the landscape. The ability of USGS scientists to critically analyze the monitored data in search of signals and trends, whether they lead to negative or positive results, allows us to reach significant conclusions—from providing factual conclusions to decisionmakers, to estimating how much of a natural resource exists in a particular locale, to predicting how a natural hazard phenomenon will unfold, to forecasting on a scale from hours to millennia how ecosystems will behave. None of these challenge themes can be addressed strictly by one or two science disciplines; all require well-integrated, cross-discipline thinking, data collection, and analyses. The multidisciplinary science themes that have become the focus of the USGS mission parallel the major challenges in the border region between Mexico and the United States. Because of this multidisciplinary approach, the USGS possesses a unique set of capabilities that can address these challenges. The USGS can apply geographical, geospatial, biological, hydrological, and geological sciences to these complex issues and thereby provide insight into the area’s natural systems and their relation to human activity. As we come to better understand the complexities of the components of these challenge themes, we discover that each part is inextricably intertwined with other overarching issues. Because of the complex interactions of the human, ecological, political, and economic exigencies associated with this area, the status of the Borderlands has become an ever-present concern for most American citizens and for Mexican and United States Federal, State, and local governments. This circular is intended to provide you - citizen, local decisionmaker, government leader, or private entrepreneur—an overview of what the USGS considers the current and future challenges in the United States–Mexican border region and examples of how the USGS can make a difference in understanding and addressing these issues.

United States-Mexico Borderlands↗