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Terrestrial ecosystem model performance in simulating productivity and its vulnerability to climate change in the northern permafrost region

Realistic projection of future climate-carbon (C) cycle feedbacks requires better understanding and an improved representation of the C cycle in permafrost regions in the current generation of Earth system models. Here we evaluated 10 terrestrial ecosystem models for their estimates of net primary productivity (NPP) and responses to historical climate change in permafrost regions in the Northern Hemisphere. In comparison with the satellite estimate from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS; 246 ± 6 g C m −2 yr −1 ), most models produced higher NPP (309 ± 12 g C m −2 yr −1 ) over the permafrost region during 2000–2009. By comparing the simulated gross primary productivity (GPP) with a flux tower-based database, we found that although mean GPP among the models was only overestimated by 10% over 1982–2009, there was a twofold discrepancy among models (380 to 800 g C m −2 yr −1 ), which mainly resulted from differences in simulated maximum monthly GPP (GPP max ). Most models overestimated C use efficiency (CUE) as compared to observations at both regional and site levels. Further analysis shows that model variability of GPP and CUE are nonlinearly correlated to variability in specific leaf area and the maximum rate of carboxylation by the enzyme Rubisco at 25°C ( V c max_25 ), respectively. The models also varied in their sensitivities of NPP, GPP, and CUE to historical changes in climate and atmospheric CO 2 concentration. These results indicate that model predictive ability of the C cycle in permafrost regions can be improved by better representation of the processes controlling CUE and GPP max as well as their sensitivity to climate change.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences

Interferometric synthetic aperture radar study of Okmok volcano, Alaska, 1992-2003: Magma supply dynamics and postemplacement lava flow deformation

Okmok volcano, located in the central Aleutian arc, Alaska, is a dominantly basaltic complex topped with a 10-km-wide caldera that formed circa 2.05 ka. Okmok erupted several times during the 20th century, most recently in 1997; eruptions in 1945, 1958, and 1997 produced lava flows within the caldera. We used 80 interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) images (interferograms) to study transient deformation of the volcano before, during, and after the 1997 eruption. Point source models suggest that a magma reservoir at a depth of 3.2 km below sea level, located beneath the center of the caldera and about 5 km northeast of the 1997 vent, is responsible for observed volcano-wide deformation. The preeruption uplift rate decreased from about 10 cm yr −1 during 1992–1993 to 2 ∼ 3 cm yr −1 during 1993–1995 and then to about −1 ∼ −2 cm yr −1 during 1995–1996. The posteruption inflation rate generally decreased with time during 1997–2001, but increased significantly during 2001–2003. By the summer of 2003, 30 ∼ 60% of the magma volume lost from the reservoir in the 1997 eruption had been replenished. Interferograms for periods before the 1997 eruption indicate consistent subsidence of the surface of the 1958 lava flows, most likely due to thermal contraction. Interferograms for periods after the eruption suggest at least four distinct deformation processes: (1) volcano-wide inflation due to replenishment of the shallow magma reservoir, (2) subsidence of the 1997 lava flows, most likely due to thermal contraction, (3) deformation of the 1958 lava flows due to loading by the 1997 flows, and (4) continuing subsidence of 1958 lava flows buried beneath 1997 flows. Our results provide insights into the postemplacement behavior of lava flows and have cautionary implications for the interpretation of inflation patterns at active volcanoes.

Alaska

High‐resolution locations of triggered earthquakes and tomographic imaging of Kilauea Volcano's south flank

The spatiotemporal patterns of seismicity beneath Kilauea's south flank give insight to the structure and geometry of the decollement on which large, tsunamigenic earthquakes have occurred, and its relation to slow slip events (SSEs), which have been observed every 1 to 2 years since 1997. In order to record earthquakes triggered by a SSE that was predicted to occur in March 2007, a temporary network of 20 seismometers was deployed on Kilauea's south flank, termed the SEQ network. While the SSE did not occur until 17 June 2007, theSEQ network recorded over 3000 earthquakes, including those triggered by the SSE. We relocate hypocenters of volcano‐tectonic earthquakes and invert for P and S wave velocity structure using waveform cross‐correlation and double‐difference tomography using data from the SEQ network and the permanent Hawaii Volcano Observatory network (HVO) data, with additional data from other previous temporary arrays. The best‐constrained hypocenters, recorded by both the SEQ and HVO networks, indicate the decollement as a subhorizontal layer of seismicity at 8 km depth less than 1 km thick in most areas, with the western portion of the decollement dipping to the southeast. The seismicity triggered by the June 2007 SSE includes over 400 earthquakes overlapping with the southern edge of the decollement seismicity. A shallower swarm of earthquakes also occurred between 2 and 7 km depth in April 2007 near Apua Point, and may have been indirectly triggered by the M w 8.1 Solomon Islands earthquake at ∼6000 km distance, which occurred 48 h prior to the beginning of the swarm.

Hawaii

Detection and monitoring of H2O and CO2 ice clouds on Mars

We have developed an observational scheme for the detection and discrimination of Mars atmospheric H 2 O and CO 2 clouds using ground-based instruments in the near infrared. We report the results of our cloud detection and characterization study using Mars near IR images obtained during the 1990 and 1993 oppositions. We focused on specific wavelengths that have the potential, based on previous laboratory studies of H 2 O and CO 2 ices, of yielding the greatest degree of cloud detectability and compositional discriminability. We have detected and mapped absorption features at some of these wavelengths in both the northern and southern polar regions of Mars. Compositional information on the nature of these absorption features was derived from comparisons with laboratory ice spectra and with a simplified radiative transfer model of a CO 2 ice cloud overlying a bright surface. Our results indicate that both H 2 O and CO 2 ices can be detected and distinguished in the polar hood clouds. The region near 3.00 μm is most useful for the detection of water ice clouds because there is a strong H 2 O ice absorption at this wavelength but only a weak CO 2 ice band. The region near 3.33 μm is most useful for the detection of CO 2 ice clouds because there is a strong, relatively narrow CO 2 ice band at this wavelength but only broad “continuum” H 2 O ice absorption. Weaker features near 2.30 μm could arise from CO 2 ice at coarse grain sizes, or surface/dust minerals. Narrow features near 2.00 μm, which could potentially be very diagnostic of CO 2 ice clouds, suffer from contamination by Mars atmospheric CO 2 absorptions and are difficult to interpret because of the rather poor knowledge of surface elevation at high latitudes. These results indicate that future ground-based, Earth-orbital, and spacecraft studies over a more extended span of the seasonal cycle should yield substantial information on the style and timing of volatile transport on Mars, as well as a more detailed understanding of the role of CO 2 condensation in the polar heat budget.

Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets

P wave crustal velocity structure in the greater Mount Rainier area from local earthquake tomography

We present results from a local earthquake tomographic imaging experiment in the greater Mount Rainier area. We inverted P wave arrival times from local earthquakes recorded at permanent and temporary Pacific Northwest Seismograph Network seismographs between 1980 and 1996. We used a method similar to that described by Lees and Crosson [1989], modified to incorporate the parameter separation method for decoupling the hypocenter and velocity problems. In the upper 7 km of the resulting model there is good correlation between velocity anomalies and surface geology. Many focal mechanisms within the St. Helens seismic zone have nodal planes parallel to the epicentral trend as well as to a north-south trending low-velocity trough, leading us to speculate that the trough represents a zone of structural weakness in which a moderate ( M 6.5–7.0) earthquake could occur. In contrast, the western Rainier seismic zone does not correlate in any simple way with anomaly patterns or focal mechanism fault planes, leading us to infer that it is less likely to experience a moderate earthquake. A ∼10 km-wide low-velocity anomaly occurs 5 to 18 km beneath the summit of Mount Rainier, which we interpret to be a signal of a region composed of hot, fractured rock with possible small amounts of melt or fluid. No systematic velocity pattern is observed in association with the southern Washington Cascades conductor. A midcrustal anomaly parallels the Olympic-Wallowa lineament as well as several other geophysical trends, indicating that it may play an important role in regional tectonics.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth

Flood lavas on Earth, Io and Mars

Flood lavas are major geological features on all the major rocky planetary bodies. They provide important insight into the dynamics and chemistry of the interior of these bodies. On the Earth, they appear to be associated with major and mass extinction events. It is therefore not surprising that there has been significant research on flood lavas in recent years. Initial models suggested eruption durations of days and volumetric fluxes of order 10 7 m 3 s −1 with flows moving as turbulent floods. However, our understanding of how lava flows can be emplaced under an insulating crust was revolutionized by the observations of actively inflating pahoehoe flows in Hawaii. These new ideas led to the hypothesis that flood lavas were emplaced over many years with eruption rates of the order of 10 4 m 3 s −1 . The field evidence indicates that flood lava flows in the Columbia River Basalts, Deccan Traps, Etendeka lavas, and the Kerguelen Plateau were emplaced as inflated pahoehoe sheet flows. This was reinforced by the observation of active lava flows of ≥100 km length on Io being formed as tube-fed flows fed by moderate eruption rates (10 2 –10 3 m 3 s −1 ). More recently it has been found that some flood lavas are also emplaced in a more rapid manner. New high-resolution images from Mars revealed ‘platy–ridged’ flood lava flows, named after the large rafted plates and ridges formed by compression of the flow top. A search for appropriate terrestrial analogues found an excellent example in Iceland: the 1783–1784 Laki Flow Field. The brecciated Laki flow top consists of pieces of pahoehoe, not aa clinker, leading us to call this ‘rubbly pahoehoe’. Similar flows have been found in the Columbia River Basalts and the Kerguelen Plateau. We hypothesize that these flows form with a thick, insulating, but mobile crust, which is disrupted when surges in the erupted flux are too large to maintain the normal pahoehoe mode of emplacement. Flood lavas emplaced in this manner could have (intermittently) reached effusion rates of the order of 10 6 m 3 s −1 .

Journal of the Geological Society

Crustal structure and relocated earthquakes in the Puget Lowland, Washington, from high-resolution seismic tomography

The availability of regional earthquake data from the Pacific Northwest Seismograph Network (PNSN), together with active source data from the Seismic Hazards Investigation in Puget Sound (SHIPS) seismic experiments, has allowed us to construct a new high-resolution 3-D, P wave velocity model of the crust to a depth of about 30 km in the central Puget Lowland. In our method, earthquake hypocenters and velocity model are jointly coupled in a fully nonlinear tomographic inversion. Active source data constrain the upper 10–15 km of the model, and earthquakes constrain the deepest portion of the model. A number of sedimentary basins are imaged, including the previously unrecognized Muckleshoot basin, and the previously incompletely defined Possession and Sequim basins. Various features of the shallow crust are imaged in detail and their structural transitions to the mid and lower crust are revealed. These include the Tacoma basin and fault zone, the Seattle basin and fault zone, the Seattle and Port Ludlow velocity highs, the Port Townsend basin, the Kingston Arch, and the Crescent basement, which is arched beneath the Lowland from its surface exposure in the eastern Olympics. Strong lateral velocity gradients, consistent with the existence of previously inferred faults, are observed, bounding the southern Port Townsend basin, the western edge of the Seattle basin beneath Dabob Bay, and portions of the Port Ludlow velocity high and the Tacoma basin. Significant velocity gradients are not observed across the southern Whidbey Island fault, the Lofall fault, or along most of the inferred location of the Hood Canal fault. Using improved earthquake locations resulting from our inversion, we determined focal mechanisms for a number of the best recorded earthquakes in the data set, revealing a complex pattern of deformation dominated by general arc-parallel regional tectonic compression. Most earthquakes occur in the basement rocks inferred to be the lower Tertiary Crescent formation. The sedimentary basins and the eastern part of the Olympic subduction complex are largely devoid of earthquakes. Clear association of hypocenters and focal mechanisms with previously mapped or proposed faults is difficult; however, seismicity, structure, and focal mechanisms associated with the Seattle fault zone suggest a possible high-angle mode of deformation with the north side up. We suggest that this deformation may be driven by isostatic readjustment of the Seattle basin.

Washington

Sentinel-2 and WorldView-3 atmospheric correction and signal normalization based on ground-truth spectroradiometric measurements

Remote sensing satellite Earth Observing Systems (EOS) provide a variety of products for monitoring Earth surface processes at varying spatial and spectral resolutions. Combining information from high and medium spatial resolution images is valuable for monitoring ground cover and vegetation status in cropland, grassland, forests, and other natural settings. However, coupling information from different EOS requires compensating for atmospheric and view angle effects before integrating comparable surface reflectance (SR) values. The objectives of this study were i) to assess how different atmospheric constituents affect the atmospheric correction results in Sentinel-2 and WorldView-3 imagery, ii) to establish a relationship with field spectra measurements, and iii) to develop an empirical approach to ensure that SR values extracted from different EOS can be normalized for use in monitoring vegetation and land cover status. We compared surface reflectance values derived from Sentinel-2 images corrected with Sen2Cor, MODTRAN or FLAASH atmospheric correction approaches for the visible-to-near infrared regions. Additionally, this information was compared to SR values extracted from WorldView-3 imagery acquired from the same dates and location (Central Spain) and corrected with MODTRAN and FLAASH approaches. Assessment of the atmospheric correction was conducted by comparing satellite image SR with ground-truth spectra acquired with a FieldSpec hand-held spectroradiometer. The results emphasized the importance of using common atmospheric parameters collected from ancillary data sources (i.e. MODIS Atmosphere & Land products) to ensure a reliable SR comparison. When compared to field-collected spectral data, SR from corrected Sentinel-2 push-broom imagery showed a reliable match (<4% difference in the visible bands and <0.52% difference in the near infrared bands). However, SR imagery from the pointable WorldView-3 instrument showed significant deviation, likely resulting from the effects of steep off-nadir acquisition angles (24.6° to 39.1°) combined with surface anisotropy. The magnitude and sign of the deviation in SR differed depending on the vegetation type, wavelength and sun-surface-sensor geometry. Therefore, it was necessary to account for angular effects to ensure reliable comparisons of imagery from the different EOS. In this study, an empirical angular correction approach was developed based on calibrating each WorldView-3 band against the ground-truth spectra. This correction allowed for the accurate signal normalization of WorldView-3 and Sentinel-2 imagery SR in the visible-to-near infrared regions.

ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing

The Phanerozoic impact cratering rate: Evidence from the farside of the Moon

The relatively recent (<1 b.y.) flux of asteroids and comets forming large craters on the Earth and Moon may be accurately recorded by craters with bright rays on the Moon's farside. Many previously unknown farside rayed craters are clearly distinguished in the low-phase-angle images returned by the Clementine spacecraft. Some large rayed craters on the lunar nearside are probably significantly older than 1 Ga; rays remain visible over the maria due to compositional contrasts long after soils have reached optical maturity. Most of the farside crust has a more homogeneous composition and only immature rays are visible. The size-frequency distribution of farside rayed craters is similar to that measured for Eratosthenian craters (up to 3.2 b.y.) at diameters larger than 15 km. The areal density of farside rayed craters matches that of a corrected tabulation of nearside Copernican craters. Hence the presence of bright rays due to immature soils around large craters provides a consistent time-stratigraphic basis for defining the base of the Copernican System. The density of large craters less than ∼3.2 b.y. old is ∼3.2 times higher than that of large farside rayed craters alone. This observation can be interpreted in two ways: (1) the average cratering rate has been constant over the past 3.2 b.y. and the base of the Copernican is ∼1 Ga, or (2) the cratering rate has increased in recent geologic time and the base of the Copernican is less than 1 Ga. We favor the latter interpretation because the rays of Copernicus (800–850 m.y. old) appear to be very close to optical maturity, suggesting that the average Copernican cratering rate was ∼35% higher than the average Eratosthenian rate. Other lines of evidence for an increase in the Phanerozoic (545 Ga) cratering rate are (1) the densities of small craters superimposed on Copernicus and Apollo landing sites, (2) the rates estimated from well-dated terrestrial craters (≤120 m.y.) and from present-day astronomical observations, and (3) the Proterozoic rate suggested by the crater record of Australia. The hypothesis most consistent with several key observations is that the cratering rate has increased by ∼2x during the past ∼300 m.y‥

Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets

On the use of high-resolution and deep-learning seismic catalogs for short-term earthquake forecasts: Potential benefits and current limitations

Enhanced earthquake catalogs provide detailed images of evolving seismic sequences. Currently, these data sets take some time to be released but will soon become available in real time. Here, we explore whether and how enhanced seismic catalogs feeding into established short-term earthquake forecasting protocols may result in higher predictive skill. We consider three enhanced catalogs for the 2016–2017 Central Italy sequence, featuring a bulk completeness lower by at least two magnitude units compared to the real-time catalog and an improved hypocentral resolution. We use them to inform a set of physical Coulomb Rate-and-State (CRS) and statistical Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) models to forecast the space-time occurrence of M3+ events during the first 6 months of the sequence. We track model performance using standard likelihood-based metrics and compare their skill against the best-performing CRS and ETAS models among those developed with the real-time catalog. We find that while the incorporation of the triggering contributions from new small magnitude detections of the enhanced catalogs is beneficial for both types of forecasts, these models do not significantly outperform their respective near real-time benchmarks. To explore the reasons behind this result, we perform targeted sensitivity tests that show how (a) the typical spatial discretizations of forecast experiments ( 2 km) hamper the ability of models to capture highly localized secondary triggering patterns and (b) differences in earthquake parameters (i.e., magnitude and hypocenters) reported in different catalogs can affect forecast evaluation. These findings will contribute toward improving forecast model design and evaluation strategies for next-generation seismic catalogs.

Journal of Geophysical Research--Solid Earth

A 30-m landsat-derived cropland extent product of Australia and China using random forest machine learning algorithm on Google Earth Engine cloud computing platform

Mapping high resolution (30-m or better) cropland extent over very large areas such as continents or large countries or regions accurately, precisely, repeatedly, and rapidly is of great importance for addressing the global food and water security challenges. Such cropland extent products capture individual farm fields, small or large, and are crucial for developing accurate higher-level cropland products such as cropping intensities, crop types, crop watering methods (irrigated or rainfed), crop productivity, and crop water productivity. It also brings many challenges that include handling massively large data volumes, computing power, and collecting resource intensive reference training and validation data over complex geographic and political boundaries. Thereby, this study developed a precise and accurate Landsat 30-m derived cropland extent product for two very important, distinct, diverse, and large countries: Australia and China. The study used of eight bands (blue, green, red, NIR, SWIR1, SWIR2, TIR1, and NDVI) of Landsat-8 every 16-day Operational Land Imager (OLI) data for the years 2013–2015. The classification was performed by using a pixel-based supervised random forest (RF) machine learning algorithm (MLA) executed on the Google Earth Engine (GEE) cloud computing platform. Each band was time-composited over 4–6 time-periods over a year using median value for various agro-ecological zones (AEZs) of Australia and China. This resulted in a 32–48-layer mega-file data-cube (MFDC) for each of the AEZs. Reference training and validation data were gathered from: (a) field visits, (b) sub-meter to 5-m very high spatial resolution imagery (VHRI) data, and (c) ancillary sources such as from the National agriculture bureaus. Croplands versus non-croplands knowledge base for training the RF algorithm were derived from MFDC using 958 reference-training samples for Australia and 2130 reference-training samples for China. The resulting 30-m cropland extent product was assessed for accuracies using independent validation samples: 900 for Australia and 1972 for China. The 30-m cropland extent product of Australia showed an overall accuracy of 97.6% with a producer’s accuracy of 98.8% (errors of omissions = 1.2%), and user’s accuracy of 79% (errors of commissions = 21%) for the cropland class. For China, overall accuracies were 94% with a producer’s accuracy of 80% (errors of omissions = 20%), and user’s accuracy of 84.2% (errors of commissions = 15.8%) for cropland class. Total cropland areas of Australia were estimated as 35.1 million hectares and 165.2 million hectares for China. These estimates were higher by 8.6% for Australia and 3.9% for China when compared with the traditionally derived national statistics. The cropland extent product further demonstrated the ability to estimate sub-national cropland areas accurately by providing an R 2 value of 0.85 when compared with province-wise cropland areas of China. The study provides a paradigm-shift on how cropland maps are produced using multi-date remote sensing. These products can be browsed at www.croplands.org and made available for download at NASA’s Land Processes Distributed Active Archive Center (LP DAAC) https://www.lpdaac.usgs.gov/node/1282 .

ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing

Along-axis variability in crustal accretion at the Mid-Atlantic Ridge: Results from the OCEAN study

The OCEAN experiment is an integrated geophysical study of a region of the Cape Verde abyssal plain that formed at 140 Ma. Deep seismic reflection and ocean bottom hydrophone (OBH) refraction data were acquired along lines parallel and perpendicular to the paleoridge axis trend identified from a detailed magnetic anomaly survey. The igneous basement is overlain by about 1.3 km of sediment which enables improved imaging of intracrustal structure beyond that possible near the Mid-Atlantic Ridge axis. We describe the results of a 150-km long profile oriented parallel to magnetic anomalies M15 and M16, along which deep seismic reflection data collected by the British Institutions Reflection Profiling Syndicate are complemented by refraction data constrained by four OBHs. The line spans an entire spreading segment between two fracture zones; the northern of which has an offset of 40 km and the other (central) has an offset of only 10 km. Away from the fracture zones, the mean igneous crustal thickness is 7.2 km; near both fracture zones, thinning of up to 4 km is observed, giving a mean igneous crustal thickness over the whole segment of approximately 6.5 km. Differences are seen between the two fracture zones in their seismic velocity structure, in the associated basement topography, and in the presence of a strong reflection extending into the mantle beneath the northern fracture zone. The boundary between oceanic layers 2 and 3 correlates with variably coherent normal incidence reflections and a change in the character of the reflectivity. A number of planar reflections up to 10 km in length are present within the middle and lower crust, dipping outward from beneath low-amplitude basement highs at ∼15°; these appear to be present only within layer 3. The Moho has several expressions in the reflection data, including isolated reflection events, a local increase in reflected amplitudes, and a downward decrease in coherent reflections. At the center of the segment there is a zone at the base of the crust within which both high- and low-velocity materials are present. This zone shows an enhanced level of discontinuous normal incidence reflectivity and may represent an initial fractionation event as melt was emplaced at the spreading ridge.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth

Automated cropland mapping of continental Africa using Google Earth Engine cloud computing

The automation of agricultural mapping using satellite-derived remotely sensed data remains a challenge in Africa because of the heterogeneous and fragmental landscape, complex crop cycles, and limited access to local knowledge. Currently, consistent, continent-wide routine cropland mapping of Africa does not exist, with most studies focused either on certain portions of the continent or at most a one-time effort at mapping the continent at coarse resolution remote sensing. In this research, we addressed these limitations by applying an automated cropland mapping algorithm (ACMA) that captures extensive knowledge on the croplands of Africa available through: (a) ground-based training samples, (b) very high (sub-meter to five-meter) resolution imagery (VHRI), and (c) local knowledge captured during field visits and/or sourced from country reports and literature. The study used 16-day time-series of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) composited data at 250-m resolution for the entire African continent. Based on these data, the study first produced accurate reference cropland layers or RCLs (cropland extent/areas, irrigation versus rainfed, cropping intensities, crop dominance, and croplands versus cropland fallows) for the year 2014 that provided an overall accuracy of around 90% for crop extent in different agro-ecological zones (AEZs). The RCLs for the year 2014 (RCL2014) were then used in the development of the ACMA algorithm to create ACMA-derived cropland layers for 2014 (ACL2014). ACL2014 when compared pixel-by-pixel with the RCL2014 had an overall similarity greater than 95%. Based on the ACL2014, the African continent had 296 Mha of net cropland areas (260 Mha cultivated plus 36 Mha fallows) and 330 Mha of gross cropland areas. Of the 260 Mha of net cropland areas cultivated during 2014, 90.6% (236 Mha) was rainfed and just 9.4% (24 Mha) was irrigated. Africa has about 15% of the world’s population, but only about 6% of world’s irrigation. Net cropland area distribution was 95 Mha during season 1, 117 Mha during season 2, and 84 Mha continuous. About 58% of the rainfed and 39% of the irrigated were single crops (net cropland area without cropland fallows) cropped during either season 1 (January-May) or season 2 (June-September). The ACMA algorithm was deployed on Google Earth Engine (GEE) cloud computing platform and applied on MODIS time-series data from 2003 through 2014 to obtain ACMA-derived cropland layers for these years (ACL2003 to ACL2014). The results indicated that over these twelve years, on average: (a) croplands increased by 1 Mha/yr, and (b) cropland fallows decreased by 1 Mha/year. Cropland areas computed from ACL2014 for the 55 African countries were largely underestimated when compared with an independent source of census-based cropland data, with a root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 3.5 Mha. ACMA demonstrated the ability to hind-cast (past years), now-cast (present year), and forecast (future years) cropland products using MODIS 250-m time-series data rapidly, but currently, insufficient reference data exist to rigorously report trends from these results.

ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing

Evaluating a satellite-based seasonal evapotranspiration product and identifying its relationship with other satellite-derived products and crop yield: A case study for Ethiopia

Satellite-derived evapotranspiration anomalies and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) products from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data are currently used for African agricultural drought monitoring and food security status assessment. In this study, a process to evaluate satellite-derived evapotranspiration (ETa) products with a geospatial statistical exploratory technique that uses NDVI, satellite-derived rainfall estimate (RFE), and crop yield data has been developed. The main goal of this study was to evaluate the ETa using the NDVI and RFE, and identify a relationship between the ETa and Ethiopia’s cereal crop (i.e., teff, sorghum, corn/maize, barley, and wheat) yields during the main rainy season. Since crop production is one of the main factors affecting food security, the evaluation of remote sensing-based seasonal ETa was done to identify the appropriateness of this tool as a proxy for monitoring vegetation condition in drought vulnerable and food insecure areas to support decision makers. The results of this study showed that the comparison between seasonal ETa and RFE produced strong correlation ( R 2 > 0.99) for all 41 crop growing zones in Ethiopia. The results of the spatial regression analyses of seasonal ETa and NDVI using Ordinary Least Squares and Geographically Weighted Regression showed relatively weak yearly spatial relationships ( R 2 < 0.7) for all cropping zones. However, for each individual crop zones, the correlation between NDVI and ETa ranged between 0.3 and 0.84 for about 44% of the cropping zones. Similarly, for each individual crop zones, the correlation ( R 2 ) between the seasonal ETa anomaly and de-trended cereal crop yield was between 0.4 and 0.82 for 76% (31 out of 41) of the crop growing zones. The preliminary results indicated that the ETa products have a good predictive potential for these 31 identified zones in Ethiopia. Decision makers may potentially use ETa products for monitoring cereal crop yields and early warning of food insecurity during drought years for these identified zones.

International Journal of Applied Earth Observation

The upper mantle structure of the central Rio Grande rift region from teleseismic P and S wave travel time delays and attenuation

The lithosphere beneath a continental rift should be significantly modified due to extension. To image the lithosphere beneath the Rio Grande rift (RGR), we analyzed teleseismic travel time delays of both P and S wave arrivals and solved for the attenuation of P and S waves for four seismic experiments spanning the Rio Grande rift. Two tomographic inversions of the P wave travel time data are given: an Aki-Christofferson-Husebye (ACH) block model inversion and a downward projection inversion. The tomographic inversions reveal a NE-SW to NNE-SSW trending feature at depths of 35 to 145 km with a velocity reduction of 7 to 8% relative to mantle velocities beneath the Great Plains. This region correlates with the transition zone between the Colorado Plateau and the Rio Grande rift and is bounded on the NW by the Jemez lineament, a N52°E trending zone of late Miocene to Holocene volcanism. S wave delays plotted against P wave delays are fit with a straight line giving a slope of 3.0 ± 0.4. This correlation and the absolute velocity reduction imply that temperatures in the lithosphere are close to the solidus, consistent with, but not requiring, the presence of partial melt in the mantle beneath the Rio Grande rift. The attenuation data could imply the presence of partial melt. We compare our results with other geophysical and geologic data. We propose that any north-south trending thermal (velocity) anomaly that may have existed in the upper mantle during earlier (Oligocene to late Miocene) phases of rifting and that may have correlated with the axis of the rift has diminished with time and has been overprinted with more recent structure. The anomalously low-velocity body presently underlying the transition zone between the core of the Colorado Plateau and the rift may reflect processes resulting from the modern (Pliocene to present) regional stress field (oriented WNW-ESE), possibly heralding future extension across the Jemez lineament and transition zone.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth

Subsurface structure across the Tacoma Basin, Washington State, using trans-dimensional Bayesian inversion of fundamental mode spatial autocorrelation data

Spatial autocorrelation (SPAC), the azimuthal average of the normalized cross-correlation between equidistant station pairs deployed in a 2-D array, is widely used to image the subsurface structure. However, the rigorous estimate of subsurface structure and its uncertainties as a function of depth using SPAC data is challenging due to the nonlinear relation between the SPAC data and Earth structure as well as the trade-off between depth and velocity. Additionally, data noise is strongly correlated due to data processing (e.g. filtering, stacking from multiple time segments and azimuthal averaging). Most studies do not account for the correlated noise and fix the ratio of compressional-wave velocity ( V P ) to shear-wave velocity ( V s ) (i.e. V P / V s ratio) and the number of layers, both of which are typically unknown. To address these challenges, we develop a hierarchical trans-dimensional Bayesian inversion of fundamental mode of SPAC data that properly accounts for the correlated data noise, samples the V P / V s ratio and relaxes the number of layers (i.e. model parametrization) to be unknown in the inversion. We further examine the limitation of using only fundamental modes in the inversion. Our synthetic experiments show that the inversion recovers an incorrect model unless we sample the correlated noise and V P / V s ratio in the inversion. The inversion is then applied to SPAC data acquired at 19 sites across the Tacoma basin in Washington State to characterize the V s and the time-averaged V s over 30-m depth ( V s 30 ). Our results show that the V s 30 varies from ∼200 to 800 m s −1 . The V s 30 within the basin is higher in the middle and lower on the east and west sides. We find that these V s 30 values vary with geologic unit. The uncertainties for V s 30 are within 20 m s −1 in average except for the most eastern site TB28. Additionally, the uncertainties are greater for deeper depths beneath most of the sites as the sensitivity decreases as a function of depth. The Vs structure as a function of depth is also complex beneath some sites, possibly because the SPAC curves are affected by higher order Rayleigh modes that are not considered in the inversion. To better constrain the deeper V s structure, V s 30 and/or other average measures of V s over depth, additional constraints from complementary data, such as ellipticity or geologic data are needed. Moreover, our synthetic experiments show that higher order modes can have significant effect in the inversion results, particularly when there is a low-velocity layer.

Washington

Stratigraphic and structural evolution of the Selenga Delta Accommodation Zone, Lake Baikal Rift, Siberia

Seismic reflection profiles from the Lake Baikal Rift reveal extensive details about the sediment thickness, structural geometry and history of extensional deformation and syn-rift sedimentation in this classic continental rift. The Selenga River is the largest single source of terrigenous input into Lake Baikal, and its large delta sits astride the major accommodation zone between the Central and South basins of the lake. Incorporating one of the world's largest lacustrine deltas, this depositional system is a classic example of the influence of rift basin structural segmentation on a major continental drainage. More than 3700 km of deep basin-scale multi-channel seismic reflection (MCS) data were acquired during the 1989 Russian and the 1992 Russian–American field programs. The seismic data image most of the sedimentary section, including pre-rift basement in several localities. The MCS data reveal that the broad bathymetric saddle between these two major half-graben basins is underlain by a complex of severely deformed basement blocks, and is not simply a consequence of long-term deltaic deposition. Maximum sediment thickness is estimated to be more than 9 km in some areas around the Selenga Delta. Detailed stratigraphic analyses of the Selenga area MCS data suggest that modes of deposition have shifted markedly during the history of the delta. The present mode of gravity- and mass-flow sedimentation that dominates the northern and southern parts of the modern delta, as well as the pronounced bathymetric relief in the area, are relatively recent developments in the history of the Lake Baikal Rift. Several episodes of major delta progradation, each extending far across the modern rift, can be documented in the MCS data. The stratigraphic framework defined by these prograding deltaic sequences can be used to constrain the structural as well as depositional evolution of this part of the Baikal Rift. An age model has been established for this stratigraphy, by tying the delta sequences to the site of the Baikal Drilling Project 1993 Drill Hole. Although the drill hole is only 100 m deep, and the base of the cores is only ∼670 ka in age, ages were extrapolated to deeper stratigraphic intervals using the Reflection-Seismic-Radiocarbon method of Cohen et al. (1993). The deep prograding delta sequences now observed in the MCS data probably formed in response to major fluctuations in sediment supply, rather than in response to shifts in lake level. This stratigraphic framework and age model suggest that the deep delta packages developed at intervals of approximately 400 ka and may have formed as a consequence of climate changes affiliated with the northern hemisphere glaciations. The stratigraphic analysis also suggests that the Selenga Basin and Syncline developed as a distinct depocentre only during the past ∼2–3 Ma.

Lake Baikal Rift

Global map of eolian features on Mars

Ten basic categories of eolian features on Mars were identified from a survey of Mariner 9 and Viking orbiter images. The ten features mapped are (1) light streaks (including frost streaks), (2) dark streaks, (3) sand sheets or splotches, (4) barchari dunes, (5) transverse dunes, (6) crescentic dunes, (7) anomalous dunes, (8) yardangs, (9) wind grooves, and (10) deflation pits. The features were mapped in groups, not as individual landforms, and recorded according to their geographic positions and orientations on maps of 1:12.5 million or 1:25 million scale. In the north polar region, light and dark streaks indicate winds from the west and northwest. Frost streaks show northeast and northwest winds. Barchan dunes show southwest and west winds. Transverse dunes show east and west winds. Local erosional features show winds from the northwest or southeast and northeast or southwest. In the middle and low northern latitudes, streaks show northeast winds; yardangs and deflation pits show mostly easterly and northeasterly winds. In the low southern latitudes, light streaks and dunes record northwest and northeast winds; dark streaks record southeast winds. In high southern latitudes, most streaks and dunes record southeast and east winds. In the south polar region, light and frost streaks record southwest and northwest winds, whereas dark streaks and transverse dunes show southeast winds. The patterns recorded for ephemeral features conform to global conditions of strong southern spring and summer (northern fall and winter) wind circulation. Erosional features in bedrock indicate long-term and perhaps ancient wind trends, whereas depositional features may record relatively more recent winds. Wind directions indicated by yardangs, pits, and other erosional features seldom correspond to those shown by streaks. These erosional features indicating winds of different directions than those that formed the streaks may have been carved when the effective regional winds on Mars were different due to relative hemisphere insolation differences, which are related to obliquity variations. Alternatively, many yardangs and pits may be largely controlled by structure and carved along surface structural patterns or features that channeled both ancient and present-day winds. Deflation pits in the mantled terrain may contain the best record of ancient wind trends. These pits seem to have stratigraphically related orientations. Different stratigraphic units composing the mantle contain wind erosion pits that possibly record large-scale wind direction changes because of long-term changes in the obliquity of the Mars.

Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth