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National seed strategy progress report, 2015-2020

Native plants are the true green infrastructure we rely on for healthy, resilient, and biodiverse ecosystems. They protect us against climate change and natural disasters; create habitat for wildlife, rare species, and pollinators; and are vital for carbon sequestration. Without native plants, especially their seeds, we do not have the ability to restore functional ecosystems after natural disasters and mitigate the effects of climate change. Investing now in coordinated, research-driven native seed production is an efficient and cost-effective nature-based solution for improving ecosystem resilience in the face of the climate and extinction crisis. Federal government agencies (see list on page 13 and their partners are collaborating to increase the supply of native seeds for restoration through the National Seed Strategy for Rehabilitation and Restoration (National Seed Strategy) to get the right seed in the right place at the right time. The National Seed Strategy is a public-private collaboration to increase the supply of native seeds for restoration projects to ensure ecosystem resilience and the health and prosperity of future generations. Developed by the Plant Conservation Alliance (PCA) in 2015, the National Seed Strategy harnesses cross sector botanical expertise, supports rural, agricultural, minority, and tribal livelihoods, and provides training opportunities to our next generation of natural resource professionals to maintain and preserve our iconic habitats. This science-driven national effort is integral to the Nation’s conservation priorities, including the commitment to conserve 30% of America’s lands and waters by 2030 as outlined in Executive Order 14008 on Tackling the Climate Crisis at Home and Abroad. Moreover, the National Seed Strategy is recognized in the objectives of the 2021 DOI Invasive Species Strategic Plan (DOI 2021) and addresses national priorities such as climate change, wildland fire, and tribal engagement. The National Seed Strategy charts a course for federal, tribal, state, local and private partners to increase private and public sector coordination on native seed development, thereby accelerating the pace and scale of restoration. Success is being achieved through the establishment of nationwide networks of seed collectors, researchers to develop seed, farmers to grow native seed, nurseries and seed storage facilities to supply adequate quantities of appropriate seed, and restoration ecologists.

Progress Report

Coastal development

As a focal point of global urbanization, the coastal zone faces multiple pressures from human activities, land-sea interactions and natural disasters. Over the past five years, population, communities and infrastructure in coastal zones have consistently grown, alongside gradual economic recovery. Coastal pollution has become more complex owing to climate change and the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, necessitating enhanced monitoring and control measures. Public participation has been diversified but still faces difficulties in awareness-raising, policy strengthening, equity and comprehensiveness. For the coastal zone, integrated management will continue to be needed in order to achieve a balance between economic performance and ecological environment. Climate change will be a key factor to consider in every aspect of coastal zone development. To build inclusive, safe and disaster-resilient communities while reducing negative environmental impacts and achieving a sustainable coastal economy, greater emphasis must be placed on green-grey infrastructure, ecosystem-based approaches, institutional integration and sociocultural aspects. In addition, urgent breakthroughs are needed in areas such as data collection, technology synthesis, integrated land-sea management, transboundary cooperation and policies and technical innovations related to natural and nature-based features and nature-based solutions.

Report

Multi-hazard risk analysis for the U.S. Department of the Interior: An integration of expert elicitation, planning priorities, and geospatial analysis

An integral part of disaster risk management is identifying and prioritizing hazards and their potential impacts in a meaningful way to support risk-reduction planning. There has been considerable use and subsequent criticism of threat prioritization efforts that simply compare likelihoods and consequences of plausible threats. This article summarizes a new mixed-methods and scalable approach for prioritizing risks in a multi-hazard, multi-objective, and multi-criteria organizational context. This approach integrates (1) hazard characterizations using subject-matter-expert (SME) elicitation, (2) expressed preferences in planning priorities provided by emergency managers, and (3) quantitative estimates of asset exposure to hazards using geospatial data and geographic-information-systems (GIS) software. We demonstrate this approach with a case study designed to support multi-hazard mitigation and response planning done by the U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) Office of Emergency Management, which required a national understanding of the risks posed by 75 natural, technological, and adversarial hazards to DOI managed and administered lands, facilities, people, revenues, and resources. Results demonstrate that hazard priorities vary depending on the asset, scale, and risk-management context, thereby making the case that “one-size-fits-all” hazard rankings have limited utility or relevance to real-world, risk mitigation and response planning. Our results suggest that recognizing the risk-management context provides greater transparency, flexibility, and relevance in comparing threats than traditional likelihood-threat matrices or the use of hazard SMEs to decide for planners which hazard scenarios are emphasized in risk planning.

International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction

Near-real-time earthquake-induced fatality estimation using crowdsourced data and few-shot large-language models

When a damaging earthquake occurs, immediate information about casualties (e.g., fatalities and injuries) is critical for time-sensitive decision-making by emergency response and aid agencies in the first hours and days. Systems such as the Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) were developed to provide a forecast of such impacts within about 30 min of any significant earthquake globally. However, existing disaster-induced human loss estimation systems often rely on early casualty reports manually retrieved from global traditional media, which are labor-intensive, time-consuming, and have significant time latencies. Recent approaches use keyword matching and topic modeling to identify human casualty-relevant information from social media but tend to be error-prone when dealing with complex semantics in multi-lingual text data and parsing dynamically changing and conflicting human death and injury numbers shared by various unvetted sources in social media platforms. In this work, we introduce an end-to-end framework to significantly improve the timeliness and accuracy of global earthquake-induced human loss forecasting using multi-lingual, crowdsourced social media. Our framework integrates (i) a hierarchical casualty extraction model built upon large language models, prompt design, and few-shot learning to retrieve quantitative human loss claims from social media, (ii) a physical constraint-aware, dynamic-truth discovery model that discovers the truthful human loss from massive noisy and potentially conflicting human loss claims, and (iii) a Bayesian updating loss projection model that dynamically updates the final loss estimation using discovered truths. We test the framework in real-time on a series of global earthquake events in 2021 and 2022 and show that our framework effectively automates the retrieval of casualty information faster but with comparable accuracy to those now retrieved manually by the USGS. The code associated with this work is made available at: https://github.com/SusuXu-s-Lab/Hierarchical-Earthquake-Casualty-Information-Retrieval

International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction

Post-traumatic stress disorder in adult population of La Palma (Spain) after the 2021 Tajogaite eruption: Environmental and sociodemographic predictors

The adverse mental health effects of exposure to disasters have long been recognized, with earthquakes, floods, tsunamis, and volcanoes (among others) contributing to anxiety, depression, and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Concerning PTSD and volcanic eruptions specifically, most studies have highlighted risk factors related to demographic and social factors (e.g., gender, age, and education), mental health, and those associated with the experience of the volcanic eruption (e.g., having evacuated). Establishing the demographic scope of those more likely to suffer PTSD following volcanic eruptions as well as understanding the aggravating factors is key to best tailor precautionary measurements and psychological interventions. In this study, we supplement these analyses by investigating the role of environmental contaminants (specifically, exposure to tephra falls and degraded air quality) together with demographic, health, and hazard experiences in contributing to PTSD. We focus on data collected after the 2021 eruption of the Tajogaite volcano (Cumbre Vieja, La Palma, Spain). Our results show that in addition to sex, education, distance from the volcano, evacuation status, health issues related to the eruption, and mental health antecedents, exposure to volcanic gas but not tephra is associated with higher PTSD scores. Our findings establish a picture of the prevalence of PTSD symptoms in various demographics groups and aggravating factors following the 2021 eruption of the Tajogaite volcano. We further call for an extended investigation (and potentially, ultimately, a mechanistic explanation) of the role of air quality (as a potential synergic hazard) in shaping mental health following exposure to a primary hazard, such as a volcanic eruption.

Canary Islands, Island of La Palma

Considerations for creating equitable and inclusive communication campaigns associated with ShakeAlert, the earthquake early warning system for the West Coast of the USA

Purpose The 2019 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction (GAR) cites earthquakes as the most damaging natural hazard globally, causing billions of dollars of damage and killing thousands of people. Earthquakes have the potential to drastically impact physical, social and economic landscapes; to reduce this risk, earthquake early warning (EEW) systems have been developed. However, these technical EEW systems do not operate in a vacuum; the inequities in social systems, along with the needs of diverse populations, must be considered when developing these systems and their associated communication campaigns. Design/methodology/approach This article reviews aspects of social vulnerability as they relate to ShakeAlert, the EEW system for the USA. The authors identified two theories (relationship management theory and mute group theory) to inform self-reflective questions for agencies managing campaigns for EEW systems, which can assist in the development of more inclusive communication practices. Finally, the authors suggest this work contributes to important conversations about diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) issues within early warning systems and earthquake preparedness campaigns in general. Findings To increase inclusivity, Macnamara (2012) argues that self-reflective questioning while analyzing perspective, philosophy and approaches for a campaign can help. Specific to EEW campaigns, developers may find self-reflective questions a useful approach to increase inclusion. These questions are guided by two theories and are explored in the paper. Research limitations/implications Several research limitations exist. First, this work explores two theories to develop a combined theoretical model for self-reflective questions. Further research is required to determine if this approach and the combination of these two theories have adequately informed the development of the reflective questions. Orginality/value The authors could find little peer-reviewed work examining DEI for EEW systems, and ShakeAlert in particular. While articles on early warning systems exist that explore aspects of this, EEW and ShakeAlert, with its very limited time frames for warnings, creates unique challenges.

West Coast

Household evacuation characteristics in American Samoa during the 2009 Samoa Islands tsunami

Tsunamis represent significant threats to human life and development in coastal communities. This quantitative study examines the influence of household characteristics on evacuation actions taken by 211 respondents in American Samoa who were at their homes during the 29 September 2009 M w 8.1 Samoa Islands earthquake and tsunami disaster. Multiple logistic regression analysis of survey data was used to examine the association between evacuation and various household factors. Findings show that increases in distance to shoreline were associated with a slightly decreased likelihood of evacuation, whereas households reporting higher income had an increased probability of evacuation. The response in American Samoa was an effective one, with only 34 fatalities in a tsunami that reached shore in as little as 15 minutes. Consequently, future research should implement more qualitative study designs to identify event and cultural specific determinants of household evacuation behaviour to local tsunamis.

Disasters

The generational gap: Children, adults, and protective actions in response to earthquakes

In addition to academic curricula, schools offer regular drills to train young people and adult staff on what to do in an emergency or disaster. Earthquake drills in the United States currently recommend the protective action “drop, cover, and hold on” in the event of shaking. Yet, little is known about whether this guidance is followed in schools and homes by children and adults. To fill this gap, this research examined protective actions taken by children and adults during the 2018 Anchorage, Alaska earthquake and the 2019 Ridgecrest, California earthquake sequence. Our research team conducted indepth interviews with kindergarten to secondary school administrators, teachers, and students, as well with parents, emergency managers, building officials, and engineers (N = 118) in earthquake-affected communities. Our findings indicate that the most common action among children across the study locations was to drop, cover, and hold on. Adults, however, did not always follow current recommended guidance and exhibited more variability in the actions they took in response to shaking, such as trying to protect others, getting in doorways, freezing in place, or rapidly exiting buildings. This research suggests that a generational gap exists that could compromise the safety of young people as well as the adults who care for them. We recommend that earthquake training in schools be strengthened to better prepare both child and adult populations for the threat of earthquakes. Moreover, the emergence of new technologies, like ShakeAlert – the earthquake early warning system for the West Coast of the United States – can create new opportunities for disseminating alert and warning information and preparing populations for impending hazards. Recognising how children and adults may react in an earthquake can improve drills and messaging, refine risk communication strategies, and reduce injury and loss of life.

Alaska, California

Exploring Hawaiian volcanism

In 1912 the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO) was established by Massachusetts Institute of Technology professor Thomas A. Jaggar Jr. on the island of Hawaii. Driven by the devastation he observed while investigating the volcanic disasters of 1902 at Montagne Pelée in the Caribbean, Jaggar conducted a worldwide search and decided that Hawai‘i provided an excellent natural laboratory for systematic study of earthquake and volcano processes toward better understanding of seismic and volcanic hazards. In the 100 years since HVO’s founding, surveillance and investigation of Hawaiian volcanoes have spurred advances in volcano and seismic monitoring techniques, extended scientists’ understanding of eruptive activity and processes, and contributed to development of global theories about hot spots and mantle plumes.

Hawai'i

The false spring of 2012, earliest in North American record

Phenology - the study of recurring plant and animal life cycle stages, especially their timing and relationships with weather and climate - is becoming an essential tool for documenting, communicating, and anticipating the consequences of climate variability and change. For example, March 2012 broke numerous records for warm temperatures and early flowering in the United States [Karl et al., 2012; Elwood et al., 2013]. Many regions experienced a “false spring,” a period of weather in late winter or early spring sufficiently mild and long to bring vegetation out of dormancy prematurely, rendering it vulnerable to late frost and drought. As global climate warms, increasingly warmer springs may combine with the random climatological occurrence of advective freezes, which result from cold air moving from one region to another, to dramatically increase the future risk of false springs, with profound ecological and economic consequences [e.g., Gu et al., 2008; Marino et al., 2011; Augspurger, 2013]. For example, in the false spring of 2012, an event embedded in long-term trends toward earlier spring [e.g., Schwartz et al., 2006], the frost damage to fruit trees totaled half a billion dollars in Michigan alone, prompting the federal government to declare the state a disaster area [Knudson, 2012].

Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union

Can shale safely host US nuclear waste?

"Even as cleanup efforts after Japan’s Fukushima disaster offer a stark reminder of the spent nuclear fuel (SNF) stored at nuclear plants worldwide, the decision in 2009 to scrap Yucca Mountain as a permanent disposal site has dimmed hope for a repository for SNF and other high-level nuclear waste (HLW) in the United States anytime soon. About 70,000 metric tons of SNF are now in pool or dry cask storage at 75 sites across the United States [Government Accountability Office, 2012], and uncertainty about its fate is hobbling future development of nuclear power, increasing costs for utilities, and creating a liability for American taxpayers [Blue Ribbon Commission on America’s Nuclear Future, 2012].However, abandoning Yucca Mountain could also result in broadening geologic options for hosting America’s nuclear waste. Shales and other argillaceous formations (mudrocks, clays, and similar clay-rich media) have been absent from the U.S. repository program. In contrast, France, Switzerland, and Belgium are now planning repositories in argillaceous formations after extensive research in underground laboratories on the safety and feasibility of such an approach [Blue Ribbon Commission on America’s Nuclear Future, 2012; Nationale Genossenschaft für die Lagerung radioaktiver Abfälle (NAGRA), 2010; Organisme national des déchets radioactifs et des matières fissiles enrichies, 2011]. Other nations, notably Japan, Canada, and the United Kingdom, are studying argillaceous formations or may consider them in their siting programs [Japan Atomic Energy Agency, 2012; Nuclear Waste Management Organization (NWMO), (2011a); Powell et al., 2010]."

Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union

Elders recall an earlier tsunami on Indian Ocean shores

Ten years on, the Indian Ocean tsunami of 26 December 2004 still looms large in efforts to reduce coastal risk. The disaster has spurred worldwide advances in tsunami detection and warning, tsunami-risk assessment, and tsunami awareness [Satake, 2014]. Nearly a lifetime has passed since the northwestern Indian Ocean last produced a devastating tsunami. Documentation of this tsunami, in November 1945, was hindered by international instability in the wake of the Second World War and, in British India, by the approach of independence and partition. The parent earthquake, of magnitude 8.1, was widely recorded, and the tsunami registered on tide gauges, but intelligence reports and newspaper articles say little about inundation limits while permitting a broad range of catalogued death tolls. What has been established about the 1945 tsunami falls short of what's needed today for ground-truthing inundation models, estimating risk to enlarged populations, and anchoring awareness campaigns in local facts. Recent efforts to reduce coastal risk around the Arabian Sea include a project in which eyewitnesses to the 1945 tsunami were found and interviewed (Fig. 1), and related archives were gathered. Results are being made available through UNESCO's Indian Ocean Tsunami Information Center in hopes of increasing scientific understanding and public awareness of the region's tsunami hazards.

Eos, Earth and Space Science News

Stochastic simulation of earthquake ground motions for the seismic assessment of monumental masonry structures: Source-based vs site-based approaches

Earthquakes are among the most destructive natural disasters and have resulted in a massive number of fatalities and economic losses all over the world. Simulated ground motion records are valuable, particularly for regions lacking seismic stations or with a limited history of large-magnitude earthquakes. Notably, a significant percentage of monumental masonry buildings are located in regions with limited access to real records; hence, simulated records play a paramount role in their seismic protection. However, few studies have investigated the structural response of heritage buildings via response history analyses to assess the performance of simulated earthquakes against real ones. To accomplish this, this study simulates the recorded time-series of the 9th of July 1998 Faial earthquake in the Azores (M w = 6.2) at four available stations, using two different simulation approaches, that is, a source-based stochastic finite-fault method and a site-based broadband stochastic method. First, two masonry facades with sidewalls characterized by different slenderness levels are adopted to conduct this research. Moreover, the proposed approach is also applied to an existing monumental structure, that is, São Francisco Church, located at Horta, which was affected by damage during the Faial earthquake. Results demonstrate that both simulation approaches provide similar results in terms of structural response prediction. The proposed framework also demonstrates that a small mismatch in terms of predicted damage patterns can result in a significant relative error in terms of displacement predictions.

Earthquake Engineering and Structural Dynamics

Major fluvial erosion and a 500-Mt sediment pulse triggered by lava-dam failure, Río Coca, Ecuador

The failure of a 144-m-high lava-dam waterfall on the Río Coca, Ecuador, in February 2020 initiated a catastrophic watershed reset—regressive erosion upstream and a massive sediment pulse downstream—as the river evolves towards a new equilibrium grade. The evolution of this river corridor after a sudden base-level fall embodies the “complex response” concepts long understood through laboratory experiments, numerical modelling and smaller-scale field studies, but that have not been observed in the field before on this scale. This paper presents geomorphic and geotechnical data to characterize the evolution of the Río Coca since 2020. In the three years after the lava-dam failure, the erosion front migrated almost 13 km upstream along the mainstem river and triggered secondary headcuts that began migrating up tributaries. Erosion of the mainstem and tributary valleys generated a sediment pulse estimated to be 277 million m 3 and ~500 million tonnes (Mt) over three years, depositing sediment tens of meters thick over tens of kilometres downstream from the former waterfall. This sediment pulse is one of the largest in modern times, comparable to the annual sediment load of a major continent-draining river but with orders-of-magnitude greater sediment yield. Geomorphic adjustment of the Río Coca represents a highly unusual natural disaster threatening life, property, water quality, the regional economy, major infrastructure and energy security. However, this event also provides a rare opportunity to learn how a large autogenic watershed disturbance and recovery evolve, with important lessons for interpreting the sedimentary record of volcanic landscapes.

Río Coca

Effects of haying on breeding birds in CRP grasslands

The Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) is a voluntary program that is available to agricultural producers to help protect environmentally sensitive or highly erodible land. Management disturbances of CRP grasslands generally are not allowed unless authorized to provide relief to livestock producers during severe drought or a similar natural disaster (i.e., emergency haying and grazing) or to improve the quality and performance of the CRP cover (i.e., managed haying and grazing). Although CRP grasslands may not be hayed or grazed during the primary bird-nesting season, these disturbances may have short-term (1 yr after disturbance) and long-term (≥2 yr after disturbance) effects on grassland bird populations. We assessed the effects of haying on 20 grassland bird species in 483 CRP grasslands in 9 counties of 4 states in the northern Great Plains, USA between 1993 and 2008. We compared breeding bird densities (as determined by total-area counts) in idle and hayed fields to evaluate changes 1, 2, 3, and 4 years after haying. Haying of CRP grasslands had either positive or negative effects on grassland birds, depending on the species, the county, and the number of years after the initial disturbance. Some species (e.g., horned lark [ Eremophila alpestris ], bobolink [ Dolichonyx oryzivorus ]) responded positively after haying, and others (e.g., song sparrow [ Melospiza melodia ]) responded negatively. The responses of some species changed direction as the fields recovered from haying. For example, densities for common yellowthroat ( Geothlypis trichas ), sedge wren ( Cistothorus platensis ), and clay-colored sparrow ( Spizella pallida ) declined the first year after haying but increased in the subsequent 3 years. Ten species showed treatment × county interactions, indicating that the effects of haying varied geographically. This long-term evaluation on the effects of haying on breeding birds provides important information on the strength and direction of changes in bird populations following a disturbance. Results from this study can help guide management of CRP and other grasslands and inform future agricultural programs that address biomass energy production. © 2016 This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota

Methane emissions from oceans, coasts, and freshwater habitats: New perspectives and feedbacks on climate

Methane is a powerful greenhouse gas, and atmospheric concentrations have risen 2.5 times since the beginning of the Industrial age. While much of this increase is attributed to anthropogenic sources, natural sources, which contribute between 35% and 50% of global methane emissions, are thought to have a role in the atmospheric methane increase, in part due to human influences. Methane emissions from many natural sources are sensitive to climate, and positive feedbacks from climate change and cultural eutrophication may promote increased emissions to the atmosphere. These natural sources include aquatic environments such as wetlands, freshwater lakes, streams and rivers, and estuarine, coastal, and marine systems. Furthermore, there are significant marine sediment stores of methane in the form of clathrates that are vulnerable to mobilization and release to the atmosphere from climate feedbacks, and subsurface thermogenic gas which in exceptional cases may be released following accidents and disasters (North Sea blowout and Deepwater Horizon Spill respectively). Understanding of natural sources, key processes, and controls on emission is continually evolving as new measurement and modeling capabilities develop, and different sources and processes are revealed. This special issue of Limnology and Oceanography gathers together diverse studies on methane production, consumption, and emissions from freshwater, estuarine, and marine systems, and provides a broad view of the current science on methane dynamics of aquatic ecosystems. Here, we provide a general overview of aquatic methane sources, their contribution to the global methane budget, and key uncertainties. We then briefly summarize the contributions to and highlights of this special issue.

Limnology and Oceanography

The ASTER data system: An overview of the data products in Japan and in the United States

The Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) data system is a cooperative system, which is operated jointly by Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry (METI) through its Earth Remote Sensing Data Analysis Center (ERSDAC), and by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) primarily through its Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) and Land Processes (LP) Distributed Active Archive Center (DAAC). ASTER is a moderate-resolution land remote sensing system onboard the Earth Observing System (EOS) Terra spacecraft. ASTER-acquired data are received at the White Sands, New Mexico, ground receiving station, and then transmitted via land network to the EOS Data and Operations System (EDOS) within the Goddard DAAC, located at the GSFC. EDOS pre-processes raw ASTER data to Level-0 (L0) data, and sends them via the high-speed Asia-Pacific Advanced Network (APAN) to the ASTER Ground Data System (GDS) in Japan. ASTER GDS processes the L0 data to level-1 (L1) datasets; they distribute these data to users, and also use them to generate higher-level products for their user community. ASTER GDS sends a copy of all L1A data they produce to NASA’s LP DAAC, located at the U.S. Geological Survey’s Center for Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) near Sioux Falls, South Dakota. All L1 data received from Japan are ingested, archived, and available for users at LP DAAC. The LP DAAC also generates and distributes higher-level products from L1 data based on requests from users. To meet time-critical needs related to sensor health and performance, natural disasters, national emergencies, and certain field campaigns, the ASTER Expedited Data System (EDS) was developed, and is operated jointly by U.S. and Japanese partners.

Book chapter

Embryotoxicity and teratogenicity of environmental contaminants to bird eggs

In light of recent ecological disasters such as the Exxon Valdez oil spill of 1989, which has already claimed the lives of thousands of aquatic birds with the reproductive success of countless others at risk, there is a need to evaluate the embryotoxic potential of a continuously growing number of industrial and agricultural environmental contaminants that may come in direct contact with bird eggs. Since the Clean Air Act of 1970, the Environmental Protection Agency has issued regulations for only seven toxics, yet in 1987 alone industry released over two billion pounds of toxic substances into the air (Easterbrook 1989).

Book chapter