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Cumulative biological impacts framework for solar energy projects in the California Desert

This project developed analytical approaches, tools and geospatial data to support conservation planning for renewable energy development in the California deserts. Research focused on geographical analysis to avoid, minimize and mitigate the cumulative biological effects of utility-scale solar energy development. A hierarchical logic model was created to map the compatibility of new solar energy projects with current biological conservation values. The research indicated that the extent of compatible areas is much greater than the estimated land area required to achieve 2040 greenhouse gas reduction goals. Species distribution models were produced for 65 animal and plant species that were of potential conservation significance to the Desert Renewable Energy Conservation Plan process. These models mapped historical and projected future habitat suitability using 270 meter resolution climate grids. The results were integrated into analytical frameworks to locate potential sites for offsetting project impacts and evaluating the cumulative effects of multiple solar energy projects. Examples applying these frameworks in the Western Mojave Desert ecoregion show the potential of these publicly-available tools to assist regional planning efforts. Results also highlight the necessity to explicitly consider projected land use change and climate change when prioritizing areas for conservation and mitigation offsets. Project data, software and model results are all available online.

California

Estimating effects of constraints on plant performance with regression quantiles

Rates of change in final summer densities of two desert annuals, Eriogonum abertianum and Haplopappus gracilis , as constrained by their initial winter germination densities were estimated with regression quantiles and compared with mechanistic fits based on a self-thinning rule proposed by Guo et al. (1998); Oikos 83: 237–245). The allometric relation used was equivalent to S = N f ( N i )−1= c f ( N i )−1, where S is the ratio of final to initial densities (survivorship), c f is a constant that is a final density specific to the species and environment, N i is the initial plant density, and N f is final plant density. We used regression quantiles to estimate c f assuming the exponent of −1 was fixed (model 1, N f ( N i )−1= c f ( N i )−1) and also obtained estimates by treating the exponent as a parameter to estimate (model 2, N f ( N i )−1= c f ( N i )λ). Regression quantiles allow rates of change to be estimated through any part of a data distribution conditional on some linear function of covariates. We focused on estimates for upper (90–99th) quantiles near the boundary of the summer density distributions where we expected effects of self-thinning to operate as the primary constraint on plant performance. Allometric functions estimated with regression quantiles were similar to functions fit by Guo et al. (1998) when the exponent was constrained to −1. However, the data were more consistent with estimates for model (2), where exponents were closer to −0.4 than −1, although model fit was not as good at higher initial plant densities as when the exponent was fixed at −1. An exponential form (model 3, N f ( N i )−1= c f ( N i )λ eγNi) that is a generalization of the discrete logistic growth function, where estimates of λ were −0.23 to −0.28 and estimates of γ were −0.003 to −0.006, provided better fit from low to high initial germination densities. Model 3 predictions were consistent with an interpretation that final summer densities were constrained by initial germination densities when these were low (<40 per 0.25 m2 for Eriogonum and <100 per 0.25 m2 for Haplopappus ) and were constrained by the self-thinning process at higher germination densities. Our exponential model (3) estimated with regression quantiles had similar form to the mechanistic relation of Guo et al. (1998) when plotted as a survivorship function, but avoided the unrealistic assumption that all populations attained a similar final density, and was based on a statistical model that has formal rules for estimation and inference.

Oikos

A common garden super-experiment: An impossible dream to inspire possible synthesis

Global change threatens plant diversity and disrupts its interrelationship with ecosystem structure and function. This disruption in turn undermines confidence in the knowledge ecologists produce, and whether it will translate into multidisciplinary research settings or guide the effective management of natural lands. To address this challenge, ecology needs to consider the interactions between different levels of biological hierarchy, especially how they feedback on, and are mediated by, plant diversity. Doing so will require conducting empirical work and developing theory that simultaneously considers multiple disciplinary perspectives and units of study. Here we advocate the use of common gardens to integrate ecology, evolutionary biology, and ecosystem science through an explicit focus on simultaneous measurement of response variables at multiple levels of biological organization. This approach will provide opportunities to evaluate assumptions important to prediction, such as space-for-time substitution, and tackle the integration of physicochemical and eco-evolutionary foundations to understanding plants and ecosystems. Synthesis: We summarize the large body of research on Sonoran Desert winter annuals to demonstrate how experimental designs that employ common gardens to integrate processes across scales hold special promise. This includes refining trait-based theories of plant strategies, providing insight into ecosystem responses to global change, and collaborating effectively with other scientific disciplines.

Journal of Ecology

A nontarget, disturbance-resilient native species influences post-fire recovery and multiphasic herbicide-seeding outcomes in drylands threatened by exotic annual grasses

Native species that are abundant and persistent across disturbance-succession cycles can affect recovery and restoration of plant communities, especially in drylands. In the sagebrush-steppe deserts of North America, restoring deep-rooted perennial bunchgrasses (DRPBGs) is key to the strategy for breaking an increasingly problematic cycle of wildfire promoted by exotic annual grasses (EAGs) and displacement of perennials by post-fire increases in EAGs. We asked how Sandberg bluegrass ( Poa secunda , POSE)—a common native grass that shares traits with EAGs such as resilience to disturbance and rapid, shallow-rooted, early season growth—(1) recovered after wildfire, (2) responded to different combinations of native-plant seedings of DRPBGs and EAG-targeting herbicides; and (3) in turn, related to DRPBG recovery. In repeated sampling of up to approximately 2,000 plots spanning 113,000 burned hectares, POSE was initially more abundant than DRPBGs until POSE began to decline 5 years post-fire, and POSE was marginally affected or unaffected by restoration treatments targeting DRPBGs or EAGs. In comparison, EAG cover decreased 8–16% where preemergent herbicide was sprayed and DRPBG cover increased 3–9% where they were drill-seeded, and the greatest EAG reductions and DRPBG increases were seen where seeding and herbicides were combined in a time-staggered fashion. Treatments had less target effects where POSE cover was high (>18%), which is also where EAG cover was scarcer and DRPBG cover greater, regardless of post-fire interventions. Consideration of the ecological role of disturbance-resilient species with ruderal characteristics that match traits of key invaders may improve the efficiency and effectiveness of restoration interventions.

Restoration Ecology

Models of invasion and establishment of African Mustard ( Brassica tournefortii )

Introduced exotic plants can drive ecosystem change. We studied invasion and establishment of Brassica tournefortii (African mustard), a noxious weed, in the Chemehuevi Valley, western Sonoran Desert, California. We used long-term data sets of photographs, transects for biomass of annual plants, and densities of African mustard collected at irregular intervals between 1979 and 2009. We suggest that African mustard may have been present in low numbers along the main route of travel, a highway, in the late 1970s; invaded the valley along a major axial valley ephemeral stream channel and the highway; and by 2009, colonized 22 km into the eastern part of the valley. We developed predictive models for invasibility and establishment of African mustard. Both during the initial invasion and after establishment, significant predictor variables of African mustard densities were surficial geology, proximity to the highway and axial valley ephemeral stream channel, and number of small ephemeral stream channels. The axial valley ephemeral stream channel was the most vulnerable of the variables to invasions. Overall, African mustard rapidly colonized and quickly became established in naturally disturbed areas, such as stream channels, where geological surfaces were young and soils were weakly developed. Older geological surfaces (e.g., desert pavements with soils 140,000 to 300,000 years old) were less vulnerable. Microhabitats also influenced densities of African mustard, with densities higher under shrubs than in the interspaces. As African mustard became established, the proportional biomass of native winter annual plants declined. Early control is important because African mustard can colonize and become well established across a valley in 20 yr.

California

Actinorhizal species influence plant and soil nitrogen status of semiarid shrub-dominated ecosystems in the western Great Basin, USA

Actinorhizal plants form symbiotic root associations with dinitrogen (N 2 ) fixing Frankia and are abundant in North American cold deserts. However, the extent to which actinorhizal species are actively fixing N 2 or altering ecosystem nitrogen (N) availability remains unclear. We used the 15 N natural abundance technique to measure how three widespread actinorhizal species in the western Great Basin of western North America acquired N and influenced soil N cycling and the N status of the surrounding non-fixing plant community. We compared foliar and soil N concentrations and δ 15 N and soil biogeochemistry between reference plots and plots dominated by actinorhizal species. Actinorhizal species may be actively fixing N and influencing the N status of the surrounding ecosystem. Foliar δ 15 N of actinorhizal shrubs was significantly depleted compared to non-actinorhizal species. Non-actinorhizal plants in the presence of actinorhizal species showed depleted foliar δ 15 N and higher foliar N concentrations than in reference plots. Rates of N transformations in reference plots were similar to rates in actinorhizal plots; isotopic differences between plot types could not be explained by differences in N loss pathways. Actinorhizal species influence N cycling and availability in N-limited cold deserts, in a manner similar to leguminous plants in warm arid regions.

Great Basin

Desert Scrublands

Desert scrublands comprise the lower to mid-elevation portions of four different ecosystems including the Chihuahuan, Great Basin, Mojave and Sonoran Deserts. Together the area inside their outer boundaries includes over 8% of the surface area of the United States. Despite significant differences in the flora and fauna of these bioregions they all share the common trait of being arid shrub-steppe ecosystems, receiving, on average, less than 254 mm of rain per year. The austere nature of these landscapes belies their significant biodiversity, the amazing behavioral and physiological adaptations of the biota, and the fragility of the ecosystems to human disturbances. For example, the Mojave Desert alone has at least 250 species of ephemeral plants, mostly winter annuals, and up to 90% are endemic.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico,

Contrasting long-term survival of two outplanted Mojave Desert perennials for post-fire revegetation

Post-fire recovery of arid shrublands is typically slow, and planting greenhouse-raised seedlings may be a means of jump-starting this process. Recovery can be further accelerated by understanding the factors controlling post-planting survival. In fall 2007 and 2009, we outplanted seedlings of two contrasting native evergreen shrubs&mdash;fast-growing Nevada jointfir and slow-growing blackbrush&mdash;across five burned sites in the Mojave Desert. To increase soil moisture and optimize seedling survival, we experimentally applied and evaluated soil amendments and supplemental watering. We also evaluated two herbicides that reduce competitive invasive annual grasses and two types of herbivore protection. Survival of jointfir outplanted in 2007 was 61% after 43 months, and site largely influenced survival, while herbicide containing imazapic applied more than one year after outplanting reduced survival. Reduced survival of jointfir outplanted in 2009 coincided with delayed seasonal precipitation that intensified foliar damage by small mammals. In contrast, blackbrush survival was 4% after 43 months, and was influenced by site, type of herbivore protection, and greenhouse during the 2007 outplanting, and soil amendment during 2009. Counter to expectations, we found that supplemental watering and soil amendments did not influence long-term survival of either blackbrush or jointfir. Shrub species with rapid growth rates and broad environmental tolerances, such as jointfir, make ideal candidates for outplanting, provided that seedlings are protected from herbivores. Re-introduction of species with slow growth rates and narrow environmental tolerances, such as blackbrush, requires careful consideration to optimize pre- and post-planting conditions.

Mojave Desert

Biophysical factors control invasive annual grass hot spots in the Mojave Desert

Invasive annual grasses can promote ecosystem state changes and habitat loss in the American Southwest. Non-native annual grasses such as Bromus spp . a nd Schismus spp. have invaded the Mojave Desert and degraded habitat through increased fire occurrence, severity, and shifting plant community composition. Thus, it is important to identify and characterize the areas where persistent invasion has occurred, identifying where subsequent habitat degradation has increased. Previous plot and landscape-scale analyses have revealed anthropogenic and biophysical correlates with the establishment and dominance of invasive annual grasses in the Mojave Desert. However, these studies have been limited in spatial and temporal scales. Here we use Landsat imagery validated using an extensive network of plot data to map persistent and productive populations of invasive annual grass, called hot spots , across the entire Mojave Desert ecoregion over 12 years (2009–2020). We also identify important variables for predicting hot spot distribution using the Random Forest algorithm and identifying the most invaded subregions. We identified hot spots in over 5% of the Mojave Desert mostly on the western and eastern edges of the ecoregion, and invasive grasses were detected in over 90% of the Mojave Desert at least once in that time. Across the entire Mojave Desert, our results indicate that soil texture, aspect, winter precipitation, and elevation are the highest-ranking predictive variables of invasive grass hot spots , while anthropogenic variables contributed the least to the accuracy of the predictive model. The total area covered by hot spots varied significantly among subregions of the Mojave Desert. We found that anthropogenic variables became more important in explaining invasive annual establishment and persistence as spatial scale was reduced to the subregional level. Our findings have important implications for informing where land management actions can prioritize reducing invasive annual persistence and promoting restoration efforts.

California

Browsers or Grazers? New insights into feral burro diet using a non-invasive sampling and plant DNA metabarcoding approach

By selecting certain plants for consumption, ungulates (hoofed mammals) shape ecosystems and influence which plant species are present in their habitats. We investigated the summer diets of non-native feral burros in two ecosystems: a subtropical Sonoran Desert in Arizona and a temperate juniper shrubland in Utah, the United States. In June and July of 2019, we gathered 50 fecal samples from both locations and analyzed plant DNA in the samples to identify which plants the burros were eating. Our findings revealed that during our summer sampling period, the burros in the Sonoran Desert predominantly consumed woody browse, whereas the burros in the juniper woodland consumed a wide range of flowering herbaceous plants (forbs) and grasses. The burros in the temperate system had to consume a more diverse diet to meet their nutritional needs, while the burros in the Sonoran Desert could rely on two major forage species, mesquite and grasses from the Poaceae family; as a result, their diet had a lower degree of diversity. Feral burros are descended from the African wild ass and exhibit a similar mixed feeding strategy to their ancestors in which they can adapt their diet in different ecosystems to meet their nutritional requirements.

Animals

Effects of invasive plant species on pollinator service and reproduction in native plants at Acadia National Park

Invasive plant species can have profound negative effects on natural communities by competively excluding native species. Berberis thunbergii (Japanese barberry), Frangula alnus (glossy or alder buckthorn) and Lythrum salicaria (purple loosestrife) are invasive species known to reduce native plant diversity and are thus of great concern to Acadia National Park. Pollinators visit them for nectar and pollen. The effects of invasive plant species on pollinator behavior were investigated by comparing pollinator visitation to co-flowering native and invasive species with visitation to native species growing alone. The effect of invasives on pollination of native plants was studied by comparing fruit set in patches of the native species growing near invasives with patches far from invasive species in Acadia National Park. The coflowering pairs were as follows: in the spring native Vaccinium angustifolium (lowbush blueberry) was paired with B. thunbergii; in early summer native Viburnum nudum (wild raisin) was paired with F. alnus ; in late summer native Spiraea alba (meadowsweet) was paired with L. salicaria. We investigated whether these invasives competed with native plants for pollinators in Acadia and thus negatively affected native plant reproduction. Our objectives were to determine: 1) the influence, if any, of each invasive on pollinator visitation to a co-flowering native species, 2) factors that might affect visitation, 3) invasive pollen transfer to native plants, and 4) whether invasives influence native plant reproduction (fruit set). Our findings indicate that at times the number of flower visitors to natives was lower or the species composition of visitors different when invasives were present, that invasives sometimes attracted more pollinators, that generally the invasives were more rewarding as far as nectar and pollen availability for pollinators, and that generally native plant fruit set and seed set was not significantly lowered in the presence of the invasive. In fact, in one year fruit set of S. alba was significantly greater in the presence of L. salicaria. The number of invasive pollen grains on native stigmas was extremely low; on average less than one grain per stigma. These fruit set and pollen deposition findings indicate that native plant reproduction was not adversely affected in the short term by these invasive species and that therefore competition between the native and invasive species for pollinators did not occur. Native bee populations monitored in 2004-2005 at sites with and without B. thunbergii and/or F. alnus indicated a greater abundance of native bees at sites with these invasives present. Native bees collected from the native and invasive plants were compared with historical records to assess whether invasive plants favor different bee species than those that formerly predominated on Mount Desert Island. This does not appear to be the case. Several species of bumble bees (Bombus spp.) as well as nine solitary bee species were found that were not documented by the Procter surveys of 1917-1940. Collecting of native bees was limited to the study plants, which may, in part, explain why some bee species documented in the Procter Surveys were not found in the present research. A field guide for identification of native bumble bees has been produced to help Park Natural Resource personnel monitor the status of native bee populations in Acadia. Other educational materials were also developed, aimed at educating Park visitors by exposing them to: 1) the role of native plants and their bee pollinators in terrestrial ecosystems; 2) the effects of invasive plants on native plant-pollinator mutualisms; 3) the need for conserving native bees and other pollinators; and 4) conservation strategies for protecting and enhancing native plant-pollinator mutualisms in the Park. Based on the present findings, Acadia Park Resource Management personnel should continue to closely

Technical Report

Local climate adaptations in two ubiquitous Mojave Desert shrub species, Ambrosia dumosa and Larrea tridentata

Widely distributed species are often locally adapted to climate gradients across their ranges. But little is known about the patterns of intraspecific adaptation in desert shrubs. We examined the questions of local adaptation in multiple populations of two common shrub species of the winter-wet Mojave Desert in North America in a multiple common garden experiment. Plants were raised in the greenhouse and transplanted at the age of 1 year. Ambrosia dumosa is a drought-deciduous low shrub and Larrea tridentata is an exceptionally long-lived evergreen. Over 4 years, we monitored growth, survivorship, leaf and reproductive cover and once measured leaf N content, δ 13 C and SLA. We hypothesized that populations of both species would be differentiated along a growth–survivorship trade-off according to homesite aridity. Both species exhibited previously undocumented population differences along gradients of winter precipitation and temperature. In general, populations from more winter-mesic regions had faster growth in more mesic gardens and lower survivorship in the most arid garden. Homesites with more variable summer precipitation had greater growth for A. dumosa populations, but lower growth for L. tridentata . Among L. tridentata populations, leaf cover correlated positively with growth and negatively with survival time. For A. dumosa populations, growth and survival could not be attributed to specific traits across gardens. However, larger transplants had generally lower growth rates and higher survival rates across gardens, except in the driest garden, where the population averages of intrinsic water use efficiency (iWUE) and stem growth rate were positively correlated. Synthesis . Two dominant species of the Mojave Desert adapted locally to variation in winter and summer precipitation and temperature. They did so in different ways, suggesting that L. tridentata mitigated the risk of hydraulic failure, while A. dumosa optimized carbon assimilation for growth.

California, Nevada

Interacting vegetative and thermal contributions to water movement in desert soil

Thermally driven water-vapor flow can be an important component of total water movement in bare soil and in deep unsaturated zones, but this process is often neglected when considering the effects of soil–plant–atmosphere interactions on shallow water movement. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the coupled and separate effects of vegetative and thermal-gradient contributions to soil water movement in desert environments. The evaluation was done by comparing a series of simulations with and without vegetation and thermal forcing during a 4.7-yr period (May 2001–December 2005). For vegetated soil, evapotranspiration alone reduced root-zone (upper 1 m) moisture to a minimum value (25 mm) each year under both isothermal and nonisothermal conditions. Variations in the leaf area index altered the minimum storage values by up to 10 mm. For unvegetated isothermal and nonisothermal simulations, root-zone water storage nearly doubled during the simulation period and created a persistent driving force for downward liquid fluxes below the root zone (total net flux ~1 mm). Total soil water movement during the study period was dominated by thermally driven vapor fluxes. Thermally driven vapor flow and condensation supplemented moisture supplies to plant roots during the driest times of each year. The results show how nonisothermal flow is coupled with plant water uptake, potentially influencing ecohydrologic relations in desert environments.

Vadose Zone Journal

The concurrent use of novel soil surface microclimate measurements to evaluate CO2 pulses in biocrusted interspaces in a cool desert ecosystem

Carbon cycling associated with biological soil crusts, which occupy interspaces between vascular plants in drylands globally, may be an important part of the coupled climate-carbon cycle of the Earth system. A major challenge to understanding CO 2 fluxes in these systems is that much of the biotic and biogeochemical activity occurs in the upper few mm of the soil surface layer (i.e., the ‘mantle of fertility’), which exhibits highly dynamic and difficult to measure temperature and moisture fluctuations. Here, we report a multi-sensor approach to simultaneously measuring temperature and moisture of this biocrust surface layer (0–2 mm), and the deeper soil profile, concurrent with automated measurement of surface soil CO 2 effluxes. Our results illuminate robust relationships between biocrust water content and field CO 2 pulses that have previously been difficult to detect and explain. All observed CO 2 pulses over the measurement period corresponded to surface wetting events, including when the wetting events did not penetrate into the soil below the biocrust layer (0–2 mm). The variability of temperature and moisture of the biocrust surface layer was much greater than even in the 0–5 cm layer of the soil beneath the biocrust, or deeper in the soil profile. We therefore suggest that coupling surface measurements of biocrust moisture and temperature to automated CO 2 flux measurements may greatly improve our understanding of the climatic sensitivity of carbon cycling in biocrusted interspaces in our study region, and that this method may be globally relevant and applicable.

Biogeochemistry

A comparison of methods to assess long-term changes in Sonoran Desert vegetation

Knowledge about the condition of vegetation cover and composition is critical for assessing the structure and function of ecosystems. To effectively quantify the impacts of a rapidly changing environment, methods to track long-term trends of vegetation must be precise, repeatable, and time- and cost-efficient. Measuring vegetation cover and composition in arid and semiarid regions is especially challenging because vegetation is typically sparse, discontinuous, and individual plants are widely spaced. To meet the goal of long-term vegetation monitoring in the Sonoran Desert and other arid and semiarid regions, we determined how estimates of plant species, total vegetation, and soil cover obtained using a widely-implemented monitoring protocol compared to a more time- and resource-intensive plant census. We also assessed how well this protocol tracked changes in cover through 82 years compared to the plant census. Results from the monitoring protocol were comparable to those from the plant census, despite low and variable plant species cover. Importantly, this monitoring protocol could be used as a rapid, "off-the shelf" tool for assessing land degradation (or desertification) in arid and semiarid ecosystems.

Arizona

Spatial decision‐support tools to guide restoration and seed‐sourcing in the Desert Southwest

Altered disturbance regimes and shifting climates have increased the need for large‐scale restoration treatments across the western United States. Seed‐sourcing remains a considerable challenge for revegetation efforts, particularly on public lands where policy favors the use of native, locally sourced plant material to avoid maladaptation. An important area of emphasis for public agencies has been the development of spatial tools to guide selection of genetically appropriate seed. When genetic information is not available, current seed transfer guidelines stipulate use of climate‐based or provisional seed transfer zones, which serve as a proxy for local adaptation by representing climate gradients to which plants are commonly adapted. Despite this guidance, little emphasis has been placed on identifying best practices for deriving provisional seed zones or on incorporating predictions from future climate. We describe a flexible, multivariate procedure for deriving such zones that incorporates a broad range of climatic characteristics while accounting for covariation among climate variables. With this approach, we derive provisional seed zones for four regions in the Desert Southwest (the Mojave Desert, Sonoran Desert, Colorado Plateau, and Southern Great Basin). To facilitate future‐resilient restoration designs, we project each zone into its relative position in the future climate based on near‐term, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emissions scenarios. Although provisional seed zones are useful in a variety of contexts, there are also situations in which site‐specific guidance is preferable. To meet this need, we implement Climate Distance Mapper, an interactive decision‐support tool designed to help practitioners match seed sources with restoration sites through an accessible online interface. The application allows users to rank the suitability of seed sources anywhere on the landscape based on multivariate climate distances. Users can perform calculations for either the current or future climates. Additionally, tools are available to guide sample effort in regional‐scale seed collections or to partition the landscape into climate clusters representing suitable planting sites for different seed sources. Our tools and analytic procedures represent a flexible and reproducible framework for advancing native plant development programs in the Desert Southwest and beyond.

Ecosphere

Multi-year tracing of spatial and temporal dynamics of post-fire aeolian sediment transport using rare earth elements provide insights into grassland management

Aeolian sediment transport occurs as a function of, and with feedback to ecosystem changes and disturbances. Many desert grasslands are undergoing rapid changes in vegetation, including the encroachment of woody plants, which alters fire regimes and in turn can change the spatial and temporal patterns of aeolian sediment transport. We investigated aeolian sediment transport and spatial distribution of sediment in the surface soil for 7 years following a prescribed fire using a multiple rare earth element (REE) tracer-based approach in a shrub-encroached desert grassland in the northern Chihuahuan desert. Results indicate that even though the aeolian horizontal sediment mass flux increased approximately three-fold in the first windy season in the burned areas compared to control areas, there were no significant differences after three windy seasons. The soil surface of bare microsites was the major contributor of aeolian sediments in unburned areas (87%), while the shrub microsites contributed the least (<2%) during the observation period. However, after the prescribed fire, the contribution of aeolian sediments from shrub microsites increased considerably (∼40%), indicating post-fire microsite-scale sediment redistribution. The findings of this study, which is the first to use multiple REE tracers for multi-year analysis of the spatial and temporal dynamics of aeolian sediment transport, illustrate how disturbance by prescribed fire can influence aeolian processes and alters dryland soil geomorphology in which distinct soils develop over time at very fine spatial scales of individual plants.

New Mexico

Precipitation, density, and population dynamics of desert bighorn sheep on San Andres National Wildlife Refuge, New Mexico

Understanding the determinants of population size and performance for desert bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis mexicana) is critical to develop effective recovery and management strategies. In arid environments, plant communities and consequently herbivore populations are strongly dependent upon precipitation, which is highly variable seasonally and annually. We conducted a retrospective exploratory analysis of desert bighorn sheep population dynamics on San Andres National Wildlife Refuge (SANWR), New Mexico, 1941-1976, by modeling sheep population size as a function of previous population sizes and precipitation. Population size and trend of desert bighorn were best and well described (R 2=0.89) by a model that included only total annual precipitation as a covariate. Models incorporating density-dependence, delayed density-dependence, and combinations of density and precipitation were less informative than the model containing precipitation alone (??AlCc=8.5-22.5). Lamb:female ratios were positively related to precipitation (current year: F1,34=7.09, P=0.012; previous year: F1,33=3.37, P=0.075) but were unrelated to population size (current year. F1,34=0.04, P=0.843; previous year: F1,33 =0.14, P=0.715). Instantaneous population rate of increase (r) was related to population size (F1,33=5.55; P=0.025). Precipitation limited populations of desert bighorn sheep on SANWR primarily in a density-independent manner by affecting production or survival of lambs, likely through influences on forage quantity and quality. Habitat evaluations and recovery plans for desert bighorn sheep need to consider fundamental influences on desert bighorn populations such as precipitation and food, rather than focus solely on proximate issues such as security cover, predation, and disease. Moreover, the concept of carrying capacity for desert bighorn sheep may need re-evaluation in respect to highly variable (CV =35.6%) localized precipitation patterns. On SANWR carrying capacity for desert bighorn sheep was zero when total annual precipitation was <28.2 cm.

Wildlife Society Bulletin