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USGS2014

The glacial anticyclone theory examined in the light of recent meteorological data from Greenland—Part I

The glacial anticyclone theory, which William H. Hobbs propounded in 1910, is today still the only definitely formulated theory concerning the atmospheric movements that take place over an ice sheet of large extent. It stands chiefly on deductive grounds and contains several features that to climatologists as well as to glaciologists have always seemed questionable. Aside from the need of its verification for scientific reasons, there is now also urgent practical need for reliable information about the weather conditions that prevail over the ice sheet of Greenland, for Greenland lies athwart several of the great air routes of the future. In this paper, accordingly, the glacial anticyclone theory is first analyzed and then confronted with the facts of observation that are now at hand, especially those reported from the fixed meteorological stations which were maintained in the interior of Greenland during the 1930s. In this, the first part of the paper, the meteorological data from the Eismitte station of the German Wegener Expedition are reviewed. The second part will cover the areological data of that expedition and the similar material from the other ice‐cap stations. The conclusions reached are that there is no evidence of a virtually permanent “glacial anticyclone” centered over the Greenland ice sheet. On the contrary, there is consistent evidence from all parts of Greenland that the weather over the ice sheet is controlled by alternating cyclonic and anticyclonic movements. Cyclonic activity is most intense in southern Greenland and weakest in northern Greenland. The entire ice sheet is supplied with snow brought by rising maritime air masses, not by air descending from the upper troposphere. Aviators need not expect so much as a fifty‐fifty chance of meeting with good weather on flights across central Greenland, except for a few weeks in midsummer.

Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union↗

USGS1987

Occurrence of a predicted earthquake on the San Andreas fault

In May 1985 we predicted 1 that an earthquake would occur on the San Andreas fault near Stone Canyon, California within a year. The prediction was based on the observation of seismic quiescence–defined as a significant decrease in the average occurrence rate of earthquakes within the source volume of the future mainshock. A mainshock of magnitude M L = 4.6 occurred on 31 May 1986, rupturing exactly the specified segment of the fault. This is the first successful prediction of an earthquake along the San Andreas fault, and the probability to have come true by chance is <5%. Although the prediction addressed only a small main-shock, its success was significant because the location, size and occurrence time were correctly specified for an earthquake in a populated area. Larger earthquakes will undoubtedly be successfully predicted by the same method in the future, but the major segments of the San Andreas fault near San Francisco and Los Angeles have such a low-background seismicity rate that the method will probably not be applicable there.

California↗

USGS2021

Past abrupt changes, tipping points and cascading impacts in the Earth system

The geological record shows that abrupt changes in the Earth system can occur on timescales short enough to challenge the capacity of human societies to adapt to environmental pressures. In many cases, abrupt changes arise from slow changes in one component of the Earth system that eventually pass a critical threshold, or tipping point, after which impacts cascade through coupled climate–ecological–social systems. The chance of detecting abrupt changes and tipping points increases with the length of observations. The geological record provides the only long-term information we have on the conditions and processes that can drive physical, ecological and social systems into new states or organizational structures that may be irreversible within human time frames. Here, we use well-documented abrupt changes of the past 30 kyr to illustrate how their impacts cascade through the Earth system. We review useful indicators of upcoming abrupt changes, or early warning signals, and provide a perspective on the contributions of palaeoclimate science to the understanding of abrupt changes in the Earth system.

Nature Geoscience↗

USGS2020

Waterfowl occurrence and residence time as indicators of H5 and H7 avian influenza in North American Poultry

Avian inﬂuenza (AI) affects wild aquatic birds and poses hazards to human health, food security, and wildlife conservation globally. Accordingly, there is a recognized need for new methods and tools to help quantify the dynamic interaction between wild bird hosts and commercial poultry. Using satellite-marked waterfowl, we applied Bayesian joint hierarchical modeling to concurrently model species distributions, residency times, migration timing, and disease occurrence probability under an integrated animal movement and disease distribution modeling framework. Our results indicate that migratory waterfowl are positively related to AI occurrence over North America such that as waterfowl occurrence probability or residence time increase at a given location, so too does the chance of a commercial poultry AI outbreak. Analyses also suggest that AI occurrence probability is greatest during our observed waterfowl northward migration, and less during the southward migration. Methodologically, we found that when modeling disparate facets of disease systems at the wildlife-agriculture interface, it is essential that multiscale spatial patterns be addressed to avoid mistakenly inferring a disease process or disease-environment relationship from a pattern evaluated at the improper spatial scale. The study offers important insights into migratory waterfowl ecology and AI disease dynamics that aid in better preparing for future outbreaks.

Scientific Reports↗

USGS2020

Sea-level rise exponentially increases coastal flood frequency

Sea-level rise will radically redefine the coastline of the 21 st century. For many coastal regions, projections of global sea-level rise by the year 2100 (e.g., 0.5–2 meters) are comparable in magnitude to today’s extreme but short-lived increases in water level due to storms. Thus, the 21 st century will see significant changes to coastal flooding regimes (where present-day, extreme-but-rare events become common), which poses a major risk to the safety and sustainability of coastal communities worldwide. So far, estimates of future coastal flooding frequency focus on endpoint scenarios, such as the increase in flooding by 2050 or 2100. Here, we investigate the continuous shift in coastal flooding regimes by quantifying continuous rates of increase in the occurrence of extreme water-level events due to sea-level rise. We find that the odds of exceeding critical water-level thresholds increases exponentially with sea-level rise, meaning that fixed amounts of sea-level rise of only ~1–10 cm in areas with a narrow range of present-day extreme water levels can double the odds of flooding. Combining these growth rates with established sea-level rise projections, we find that the odds of extreme flooding double approximately every 5 years into the future. Further, we find that the present-day 50-year extreme water level (i.e., 2% annual chance of exceedance, based on historical records) will be exceeded annually before 2050 for most (i.e., 70%) of the coastal regions in the United States. Looking even farther into the future, the present-day 50-year extreme water level will be exceeded almost every day during peak tide (i.e., daily mean higher high water) before the end of the 21 st century for 90% of the U.S. coast. Our findings underscore the need for immediate planning and adaptation to mitigate the societal impacts of future flooding.

Scientific Reports↗

USGS2022

The abundance and persistence of Caprinae populations

Stable or growing populations may go extinct when their sizes cannot withstand large swings in temporal variation and stochastic forces. Hence, the minimum abundance threshold defining when populations can persist without human intervention forms a key conservation parameter. We identify this threshold for many populations of Caprinae , typically threatened species lacking demographic data. Doing so helps triage conservation and management actions for threatened or harvested populations. Methodologically, we used population projection matrices and simulations, with starting abundance, recruitment, and adult female survival predicting future abundance, growth rate (λ), and population trend. We incorporated mean demographic rates representative of Caprinae populations and corresponding variances from desert bighorn sheep ( Ovis canadensis nelsoni ), as a proxy for Caprinae sharing similar life histories. We found a population’s minimum abundance resulting in ≤ 0.01 chance of quasi-extinction ( QE ; population ≤ 5 adult females) in 10 years and ≤ 0.10 QE in 30 years as 50 adult females, or 70 were translocation (removals) pursued. Discovering the threshold required 3 demographic parameters. We show, however, that monitoring populations’ relationships to this threshold requires only abundance and recruitment data. This applied approach avoids the logistical and cost hurdles in measuring female survival, making assays of population persistence more practical.

Scientific Reports↗

USGS2025

Using bioavailability modeling to refine copper treatments for zebra mussel control and better understanding risks to non-target species

Copper can be toxic to aquatic organisms at high concentrations and has been previously used successfully to control zebra mussels ( Dreissena polymorpha ). Because copper’s toxicity changes with water chemistry, using the same copper concentration in different waterbodies could yield different outcomes. We demonstrate how measuring water chemistry parameters and using the Biotic Ligand Model (BLM) and multiple linear regression (MLR) models can predict a suitable, site-specific copper concentration for management. We exposed zebra mussel adults and non-target organisms to varying concentrations of copper over 10 d in a mobile laboratory. We found that one non-target species, Daphnia magna , had a 50% chance of survival at 9.50 µg Cu/L (i.e., the 50% lethal concentration, LC 50 ), within our BLM-predicted range of 3.38–16.95 µg Cu/L LC 50 values. In the future, managers could make similar predictions and tailor their copper concentrations to their management goals. We also measured zebra mussel larvae mortality at copper concentrations ranging from 0 to 191 µg Cu/L. While those results were inconclusive, we present the results of this work as a foundation for future projects. Our study underscores the importance of developing site-specific copper concentration recommendations and demonstrates the potential utility of the BLM and MLR approaches for informing those recommendations.

Minnesota↗

USGS2003

Effects of stormwater infiltration on quality of groundwater beneath retention and detention basins

Infiltration of storm water through detention and retention basins may increase the risk of groundwater contamination, especially in areas where the soil is sandy and the water table shallow, and contaminants may not have a chance to degrade or sorb onto soil particles before reaching the saturated zone. Groundwater from 16 monitoring wells installed in basins in southern New Jersey was compared to the quality of shallow groundwater from 30 wells in areas of new-urban land use. Basin groundwater contained much lower levels of dissolved oxygen, which affected concentrations of major ions. Patterns of volatile organic compound and pesticide occurrence in basin groundwater reflected the land use in the drainage areas served by the basins, and differed from patterns in background samples, exhibiting a greater occurrence of petroleum hydrocarbons and certain pesticides. Dilution effects and volatilization likely decrease the concentration and detection frequency of certain compounds commonly found in background groundwater. High recharge rates in storm water basins may cause loading factors to be substantial even when constituent concentrations in infiltrating storm water are relatively low.

New Jersey↗

USGS2011

Users as essential contributors to spatial cyberinfrastructures

Current accounts of spatial cyberinfrastructure development tend to overemphasize technologies to the neglect of critical social and cultural issues on which adoption depends. Spatial cyberinfrastructures will have a higher chance of success if users of many types, including nonprofessionals, are made central to the development process. Recent studies in the history of infrastructures reveal key turning points and issues that should be considered in the development of spatial cyberinfrastructure projects. These studies highlight the importance of adopting qualitative research methods to learn how users work with data and digital tools, and how user communities form. The author's empirical research on data sharing networks in the Pacific Northwest salmon crisis at the turn of the 21st century demonstrates that ordinary citizens can contribute critical local knowledge to global databases and should be considered in the design and construction of spatial cyberinfrastructures.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2012

Applications of science and engineering to quantify and control the Deepwater Horizon oil spill

The unprecedented engagement of scientists from government, academia, and industry enabled multiple unanticipated and unique problems to be addressed during the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. During the months between the initial blowout on April 20, 2010, and the final well kill on September 19, 2010, researchers prepared options, analyses of tradeoffs, assessments, and calculations of uncertainties associated with the flow rate of the well, well shut in, killing the well, and determination of the location of oil released into the environment. This information was used in near real time by the National Incident Commander and other government decision-makers. It increased transparency into BP’s proposed actions and gave the government confidence that, at each stage proposed, courses of action had been thoroughly vetted to reduce risk to human life and the environment and improve chances of success.

Alabama;Florida;Louisiana;Mississippi;Texas↗

USGS2011

Competitive interactions between walleye (Sander vitreus) and smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu) under various controlled conditions

The range of smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu) is expanding northward, creating new interactions with native predators, including walleye (Sander vitreus). We used a series of experiments to investigate competition between walleye (WAE) and smallmouth bass (SMB) at different life stages and light conditions, identified behaviors that allowed one fish to outcompete another, and evaluated whether prey switching mitigated competitive interactions. Juvenile and adult SMB appeared to outcompete WAE when fed during the daytime; neither species dominated when fed near dusk. Attack rates and capture efficiencies of both species were similar with an intra- or interspecific competitor, but SMB often exploited prey before the competitor had a chance to feed (exploitative competition) or displayed agonistic behaviors toward a potential competitor (interference competition). Prey selectivity of WAE or SMB did not differ when by themselves or with a potential competitor. These results indicate that SMB could outcompete WAE under limiting prey conditions due to the aggressive nature of SMB, but resources may be partitioned at least along a temporal scale. ?? 2011 Taylor & Francis.

Journal of Freshwater Ecology↗

USGS2012

Fish species of greatest conservation need in wadeable Iowa streams: current status and effectiveness of Aquatic Gap Program distribution models

Effective conservation of fish species of greatest conservation need (SGCN) requires an understanding of species–habitat relationships and distributional trends. Thus, modeling the distribution of fish species across large spatial scales may be a valuable tool for conservation planning. Our goals were to evaluate the status of 10 fish SGCN in wadeable Iowa streams and to test the effectiveness of Iowa Aquatic Gap Analysis Project (IAGAP) species distribution models. We sampled fish assemblages from 86 wadeable stream segments in the Mississippi River drainage of Iowa during 2009 and 2010 to provide contemporary, independent fish species presence–absence data. The frequencies of occurrence in stream segments where species were historically documented varied from 0.0% for redfin shiner Lythrurus umbratilis to 100.0% for American brook lamprey Lampetra appendix , with a mean of 53.0%, suggesting that the status of Iowa fish SGCN is highly variable. Cohen's kappa values and other model performance measures were calculated by comparing field-collected presence–absence data with IAGAP model–predicted presences and absences for 12 fish SGCN. Kappa values varied from 0.00 to 0.50, with a mean of 0.15. The models only predicted the occurrences of banded darter Etheostoma zonale , southern redbelly dace Phoxinus erythrogaster , and longnose dace Rhinichthys cataractae more accurately than would be expected by chance. Overall, the accuracy of the twelve models was low, with a mean correct classification rate of 58.3%. Poor model performance probably reflects the difficulties associated with modeling the distribution of rare species and the inability of the large-scale habitat variables used in IAGAP models to explain the variation in fish species occurrences. Our results highlight the importance of quantifying the confidence in species distribution model predictions with an independent data set and the need for long-term monitoring to better understand the distributional trends and habitat associations of fish SGCN.

Iowa↗

USGS2014

American white pelican predation on Cui-ui in Pyramid Lake, Nevada

Anthropogenic changes to the Pyramid Lake–Truckee River ecosystem in Nevada are suspected to have altered the predator–prey balance between American white pelican Pelecanus erythrorhynchos and Cui-ui Chasmistes cujus . We estimated the loss of the adult Cui-ui population to pelican predation over a 13-year period by netting and tagging Cui-uis as they aggregated at the mouth of the Truckee River prior to their spawning migration into the Truckee River. Cui-ui access to the Truckee River typically required traversing a shallow delta (a foraging advantage for these American white pelicans). Dams and greater frequency of low stream flows also contributed to American white pelican foraging success. We used tag recoveries from Pyramid Lake's nesting colony of American white pelicans along with an experiment to estimate the chance of tag recovery within the colony to calculate the number of tagged fish taken by American white pelicans. We also used numbered tags to test whether there was a size preference for Cui-uis taken. Our results showed that the primary source of adult Cui-ui mortality was from American white pelican predation in the Truckee River. Within a 13-year period American white pelicans had taken 90% of the tags deployed during the first 7 years of the interval. There was no preference for the size of Cui-uis taken. A better understanding of the effects of heavy cropping by American white pelicans on Cui-ui population dynamics is still needed.

Nevada↗

USGS1992

A statistical overview of mass movement characteristics on the North American Atlantic outer continental margin

An analysis of 179 mass movements on the North American Atlantic continental slope and upper rise shows that slope failures have occurred throughout the geographic extent of the outer margin. Although the slope failures show no striking affinity for a particular depth as an origination level, there is a broad, primary mode centered at about 900 m. The resulting slides terminate at almost all depths and have a primary mode at 1100 m, but the slope/rise boundary (at 2200 m) also is an important mode. Slope failures have occurred at declivities ranging from 1° to 30° (typically, 4°); the resultant mass movement deposits vary in width from 0.2 to 50 km (typically, 1–2 km) and in length from 0.3 to 380 km (typically, 2–4 km), and they have been reported to be as thick as 650 m. On a numeric basis, mass movements are slightly more prevalent on open slopes than in other physiographic settings, and both translational and rotational failure surfaces are common. The typical mass movement is disintegrative in nature. Open slope slides tend to occur at lower slope angles and are larger than canyon slides. Further, large‐scale slides rather than small‐scale slides tend to originate on gentle slopes (≍ 3–4°). Rotational slope failures appear to have a slightly greater chance of occurring in canyons, but there is no analogous bias associated with translational failures. Similarly, disintegrative slides seem more likely to be associated with rotational slope failures than translational ones and are longer than their nondisintegrative counterparts. The occurrence of such a variety of mass movements at low declivities implies that a regional failure mechanism has prevailed. We suggest that earthquakes or, perhaps in some areas, gas hydrates are the most likely cause of the slope failures.

Marine Geotechnology↗

USGS2010

Extrapolating growth reductions in fish to changes in population extinction risks: Copper and Chinook salmon.

Fish commonly respond to stress, including stress from chemical exposures, with reduced growth. However, the relevance to wild populations of subtle and sometimes transitory growth reductions may not be obvious. At low-level, sustained exposures, Cu is one substance that commonly causes reduced growth but little mortality in laboratory toxicity tests with fish. To explore the relevance of growth reductions under laboratory conditions to wild populations, we (1) estimated growth effects of low-level Cu exposures to juvenile Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ), (2) related growth effects to reduced survival in downriver Chinook salmon migrations, (3) estimated population demographics, (4) constructed a demographically structured matrix population model, and (5) projected the influence of Cu-reduced growth on population size, extinction risks, and recovery chances. Reduced juvenile growth from Cu in the range of chronic criteria concentrations was projected to cause disproportionate reductions in survival of migrating juveniles, with a 7.5% length reduction predicting about a 23% to 52% reduction in survival from a headwaters trap to the next census point located 640 km downstream. Projecting reduced juvenile growth out through six generations (∼30 years) resulted in little increased extinction risk; however, population recovery times were delayed under scenarios where Cu-reduced growth was imposed.

Idaho↗

USGS2000

The AOU Conservation Committee Review of the biology, status, and management of Cape Sable Seaside Sparrows: Final report

The Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow ( Ammodramus maritimus mirabilis ) was listed as an original member of the federal list of endangered species in 1968. It is restricted to seasonally flooded prairies of extreme southern Florida and is disjunct from all other conspecific breeding populations (Kushlan et al 1982, McDonald 1988). Since the subspecies was described in 1919, its populations have been discovered and rediscovered, often only to disappear or decline to a handful of individuals (Werner and Woolfenden 1983, Kushlan and Bass 1983). Although the sparrow historically is known from six distinct areas, at present only two of these areas support populations numbering in the hundreds or low thousands of individuals. Debates swirl around the status of these remnant populations. The main controversy encompasses whether the sparrow, now largely restricted to Everglades National Park, is in jeopardy of global extinction and if so, what actions must be taken to prevent this from happening. In November 1998, a panel of scientists was assembled under the auspices of the Conservation Committee of the American Ornithologists' Union (AOU) to evaluate the scientific evidence relevant to this controversy. The Panel was charged with scrutinizing the evidence for the existence and probable causes of global population decline in this subspecies, evaluating proposed management actions, and suggesting further research necessary to manage the remaining populations to maximize their chances of long-term persistence. This document presents the conclusions of the Panel, which are based on our reading of the peer-reviewed and “gray” literature, interactions during a workshop held 9 to 11 February 1999 at Florida International University in Miami with researchers investigating the sparrow's biology, and site visits associated with the workshop. In addition, researchers provided the Panel with position papers summarizing their findings and conclusions prior to the workshop and provided information in response to specific questions following the workshop. Further information was obtained through public comment on an initial draft of this report.

The Auk↗

USGS2019

Biotic interactions are the dominant drivers of phylogenetic and functional structure in bird communities along a tropical elevational gradient

Understanding how biotic and abiotic interactions influence community assembly and composition is a fundamental goal in community ecology. Addressing this issue is particularly tractable along elevational gradients in tropical mountains that feature substantial abiotic gradients and rates of species turnover. We examined elevational patterns of avian community structure on 2 mountains in Malaysian Borneo to assess changes in the relative strength of biotic interactions and abiotic constraints. In particular, we used metrics based on (1) phylogenetic relatedness and (2) functional traits associated with both resource acquisition and tolerance of abiotic challenges to identify patterns and causes of elevational differences in community structure. High elevation communities were composed of more phylogenetically and functionally similar species than would be expected by chance. Resource acquisition traits, in particular, were clustered at high elevations, suggesting low resource and habitat diversity were important drivers of those communities. Traits typically associated with tolerance of cold temperatures and low atmospheric pressure showed no elevational patterns. All traits were neutral or overdispersed at low elevations suggesting an absence of strong abiotic filters or an increased influence of interspecific competition. However, relative bill size, which is important for thermoregulation, was larger in low elevation communities, suggesting abiotic factors were also influential there. Regardless of metric, clustered and neutral communities were more frequent than overdispersed communities overall, implying that interspecific competition among close relatives may not be a pervasive driver of elevational distribution and community structure of tropical birds. Overall, our analyses reveal that a diverse set of predominantly biotic factors underlie elevational variation in community structure on tropical mountains.

Kinabalu Park, Mt. Kinabalu, Mt. Tambuyukon↗

USGS2025

Postrelease movements of captive-reared adult Atlantic Salmon in two Maine rivers

Objective Atlantic Salmon Salmo salar remain at critically low levels in the United States, with the last remaining populations located in the state of Maine. In 2021, a pilot captive-rearing program, similar to a smolt-to-adult supplementation, was implemented to boost naturally spawning adults in support of recovery goals. Methods We conducted a 2-year acoustic telemetry study to track a subset of captive-reared salmon ( N = 270) that were released into the Penobscot and Machias rivers. We evaluated their postrelease movement patterns, dam passage, and site fidelity between the two rivers, years, and seasons. Results Atlantic Salmon that were released into the Penobscot River tended to overwinter, but their movement patterns varied between release years. In contrast, the Atlantic Salmon that were released into the Machias River were more likely to move directly downstream to the river exit. In addition, the fish that were released into the dammed Penobscot River frequently made multiple attempts to pass dams in both directions, often with passage delays and failures. Atlantic Salmon that were released during the summer displayed more exploratory movements than those that were released in the fall. Most Atlantic Salmon either left the river shortly after release (5–30 d) or the following spring (>120 d). Site fidelity was greater for the fall-released Atlantic Salmon (76%) than for the summer-released Atlantic Salmon (23%). Conclusions Overall, releasing salmon in the fall as sexually mature adults may increase site fidelity to the release reach, thereby enhancing the chances of successfully spawning in the wild.

Maine↗