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Conservation research across scales in a national program: How to be relevant to local management yet general at the same time

Successfully addressing complex conservation problems requires attention to pattern and process at multiple spatial scales. This is challenging from a logistical and organizational perspective. In response to indications of worldwide declines in amphibian populations, the Amphibian Research and Monitoring Initiative (ARMI) of the United States Geological Survey was established in 2000. This national program is unique in its structure, organization, and success in integrating information at multiple scales. ARMI works under the principle that a good study design is tailored to specific questions, but stipulates the use of methods that result in unbiased parameter estimates (e.g., occupancy). This allows studies to be designed to address local questions but also to produce data that can easily be scaled up to accomplish the objectives of a broad-scale monitoring program. Here we describe how the implementation of the Amphibian Research and Monitoring Initiative results in research that is applicable across scales – global, in contributing to the understanding of amphibian decline phenomena; continental, in synthesizing local data to understand large-scale drivers; regional, by characterizing threats and assessing status of species at the range scale; and local, by working with National Park, Wildlife Refuge, and other Federal and State land managers to identify research needs and serve conservation-relevant research results to inform management decisions.

Biological Conservation

A case for occupancy as a state variable for wild bee monitoring

Reports of widespread pollinator declines, data deficiencies, and inabilities to assess status and trends underscore the need for wild bee monitoring. Chief among the challenges with wild bee monitoring is identifying monitoring objectives and state variables. Here we make the case for considering occupancy, the proportion of area occupied, as a primary state variable of interest for monitoring wild bee populations. A focus on occupancy can help to resolve some of the current complications arising from population monitoring of bees. We highlight the strengths of occupancy specifically in the context of wild bee monitoring, drawing from achievements of current monitoring programs of other taxa. We provide guidance for incorporating occupancy models into the design of current and future wild bee monitoring efforts and address important sampling biases to consider when monitoring bee populations. We also stress the importance of developing bee monitoring objectives that result in actionable conservation or improved scientific understanding. Our viewpoint provides a framework for kickstarting monitoring efforts that will better lead to effective conservation actions for wild bees.

Biological Conservation

Return to the wild: Translocation as a tool in conservation of the desert tortoise ( Gopherus agassizii )

Translocation could be used as a tool in conservation of the threatened Mojave Desert Tortoise ( Gopherus agassizii ) by moving individuals from harm's way and into areas where they could contribute to conservation of the species. Numerous factors may affect the success of translocations, including the conditions experienced by tortoises in holding facilities while awaiting translocation. The tortoises available for our translocation study had been provided supplemental water during their years spent in a captive holding facility, potentially inducing carelessness in water conservation. In addition to generally investigating the efficacy of translocation, we compared the effects of continuing with the effects of ceasing the holding facility's water supplementation regimen. After exposure to one of the two water regimens, all tortoises were given the opportunity to hydrate immediately prior to release. We examined behavior, body mass, carapace length, movement, and mortality of tortoises for two activity seasons following release to the wild. Water supplementation was correlated with high rates of carapace growth and distant movements by males after release. Lengthy movements following translocation may be problematic for conservation planning, but this should be evaluated in light of the goals and circumstances of each translocation project. Although the mortality rate was 21.4% in 1997, data suggest that drought conditions at the site rather than the translocation itself negatively affected the tortoises. None of the tortoises died during their second season at the site. Our results indicate that translocation should be considered a useful tool in conservation of the Desert Tortoise.

Nevada

A three-pipe problem: Dealing with complexity to halt amphibian declines

Natural resource managers are increasingly faced with threats to managed ecosystems that are largely outside of their control. Examples include land development, climate change, invasive species, and emerging infectious diseases. All of these are characterized by large uncertainties in timing, magnitude, and effects on species. In many cases, the conservation of species will only be possible through concerted action on the limited elements of the system that managers can control. However, before an action is taken, a manager must decide how to act, which is, if done well, not easy. In addition to dealing with uncertainty, managers must balance multiple potentially competing objectives, often in cases when the management actions available to them are limited. Guidance in making these types of challenging decisions can be found in the practice known as decision analysis. We demonstrate how using a decision-analytic approach to frame decisions can help identify and address impediments to improved conservation decision making. We demonstrate the application of decision analysis to two high-elevation amphibian species. An inadequate focus on the decision-making process, and an assumption that scientific information is adequate to solve conservation problems, must be overcome to advance the conservation of amphibians and other highly threatened taxa.

Biological Conservation

A review of Bayesian belief network models as decision-support tools for wetland conservation: Are water birds potential umbrella taxa?

Creative approaches to identifying umbrella species hold promise for devising effective surrogates of ecological communities or ecosystems. However, mechanistic niche models that predict range or habitat overlap among species may yet lack development. We reviewed literature on taxon-centered Bayesian belief network (BBN) models to explore a novel approach to identify umbrella taxa identifying taxonomic groups that share the largest proportion of habitat requirements (i.e., states of important habitat variables) with other wetland-dependent taxa. We reviewed and compiled published literature to provide a comprehensive and reproducible account of the current understanding of habitat requirements for freshwater, wetland-dependent taxa using BBNs. We found that wetland birds had the highest degree of shared habitat requirements with other taxa, and consequently may be suitable umbrella taxa in freshwater wetlands. Comparing habitat requirements using a BBN approach to build species distribution models, this review also identified taxa that may not benefit from conservation actions targeted at umbrella taxa by identifying taxa with unique habitat requirements not shared with umbrellas. Using a standard node set that accurately and comprehensively represents the ecosystem in question, BBNs could be designed to improve identification of umbrella taxa. In wetlands, expert knowledge about hydrology, geomorphology and soils could add important information regarding physical landscape characteristics relevant to species. Thus, a systems-oriented framework may improve overarching inferences from BBNs and subsequent utility to conservation planning and management.

Biological Conservation

Challenges for leveraging citizen science to support statistically robust monitoring programs

Large samples and long time series are often needed for effective broad-scale monitoring of status and trends in wild populations. Obtaining those sample sizes can be more feasible when volunteers contribute to the dataset, but volunteer-selected sites are not always representative of a population. Previous work to account for biased site selection has relied on knowledge of covariates to explain differences between site types, but such knowledge is often unavailable. For cases where relevant covariates have not been defined, we used a simulation study to identify the consequences of including non-probabilistically selected sites (NP sites) in addition to sites selected from a probability-based design (P sites), test modeling frameworks that might correct for biases, and evaluate whether those frameworks could allow NP sites to reduce the sampling requirement for P sites and potentially reduce costs of monitoring. We informed the simulation with pilot data from surveys of monarch butterflies and their obligate larval host plant, milkweed. We found strong biases in NP sites versus P sites in density and trends of monarchs and milkweed. Modeling frameworks that accounted for site type with a group effect or that strongly downweighted NP sites successfully produced unbiased estimates. However, sampling more NP sites typically did not improve accuracy or precision, and adding NP sites sometimes required also adding P sites to prevent biases. Further work on novel modeling frameworks would be useful to allow citizen-science data to contribute useful information to conservation.

Biological Conservation

Statistical guidelines for assessing marine avian hotspots and coldspots: A case study on wind energy development in the U.S. Atlantic Ocean

Estimating patterns of habitat use is challenging for marine avian species because seabirds tend to aggregate in large groups and it can be difficult to locate both individuals and groups in vast marine environments. We developed an approach to estimate the statistical power of discrete survey events to identify species-specific hotspots and coldspots of long-term seabird abundance in marine environments. We illustrate our approach using historical seabird data from survey transects in the U.S. Atlantic Ocean Outer Continental Shelf (OCS), an area that has been divided into “lease blocks” for proposed offshore wind energy development. For our power analysis, we examined whether discrete lease blocks within the region could be defined as hotspots (3 × mean abundance in the OCS) or coldspots (1/3 ×) for individual species within a given season. For each of 74 species/season combinations, we determined which of eight candidate statistical distributions (ranging in their degree of skewedness) best fit the count data. We then used the selected distribution and estimates of regional prevalence to calculate and map statistical power to detect hotspots and coldspots, and estimate the p -value from Monte Carlo significance tests that specific lease blocks are in fact hotspots or coldspots relative to regional average abundance. The power to detect species-specific hotspots was higher than that of coldspots for most species because species-specific prevalence was relatively low (mean: 0.111; SD: 0.110). The number of surveys required for adequate power (> 0.6) was large for most species (tens to hundreds) using this hotspot definition. Regulators may need to accept higher proportional effect sizes, combine species into groups, and/or broaden the spatial scale by combining lease blocks in order to determine optimal placement of wind farms. Our power analysis approach provides a general framework for both retrospective analyses and future avian survey design and is applicable to a broad range of research and conservation problems.

U.S. Atlantic Ocean Outer Continental Shelf

Integrated analysis for population estimation, management impact evaluation, and decision-making for a declining species

A challenge for making conservation decisions is predicting how wildlife populations respond to multiple, concurrent threats and potential management strategies, usually under substantial uncertainty. Integrated modeling approaches can improve estimation of demographic rates necessary for making predictions, even for rare or cryptic species with sparse data, but their use in management applications is limited. We developed integrated models for a population of diamondback terrapins ( Malaclemys terrapin ) impacted by road-associated threats to (i) jointly estimate demographic rates from two mark-recapture datasets, while directly estimating road mortality and the impact of management actions deployed during the study; and (ii) project the population using population viability analysis under simulated management strategies to inform decision-making. Without management, population extirpation was nearly certain due to demographic impacts of road mortality, predators, and vegetation. Installation of novel flashing signage increased survival of terrapins that crossed roads by 30%. Signage, along with small roadside barriers installed during the study, increased population persistence probability, but the population was still predicted to decline. Management strategies that included actions targeting multiple threats and demographic rates resulted in the highest persistence probability, and roadside barriers, which increased adult survival, were predicted to increase persistence more than other actions. Our results support earlier findings showing mitigation of multiple threats is likely required to increase the viability of declining populations. Our approach illustrates how integrated models may be adapted to use limited data efficiently, represent system complexity, evaluate impacts of threats and management actions, and provide decision-relevant information for conservation of at-risk populations.

Biological Conservation

Are hotspots of evolutionary potential adequately protected in southern California?

Reserves are often designed to protect rare habitats, or "typical" exemplars of ecoregions and geomorphic provinces. This approach focuses on current patterns of organismal and ecosystem-level biodiversity, but typically ignores the evolutionary processes that control the gain and loss of biodiversity at these and other levels (e.g., genetic, ecological). In order to include evolutionary processes in conservation planning efforts, their spatial components must first be identified and mapped. We describe a GIS-based approach for explicitly mapping patterns of genetic divergence and diversity for multiple species (a "multi-species genetic landscape"). Using this approach, we analyzed mitochondrial DNA datasets from 21 vertebrate and invertebrate species in southern California to identify areas with common phylogeographic breaks and high intrapopulation diversity. The result is an evolutionary framework for southern California within which patterns of genetic diversity can be analyzed in the context of historical processes, future evolutionary potential and current reserve design. Our multi-species genetic landscapes pinpoint six hotspots where interpopulation genetic divergence is consistently high, five evolutionary hotspots within which genetic connectivity is high, and three hotspots where intrapopulation genetic diversity is high. These 14 hotspots can be grouped into eight geographic areas, of which five largely are unprotected at this time. The multi-species genetic landscape approach may provide an avenue to readily incorporate measures of evolutionary process into GIS-based systematic conservation assessment and land-use planning.

Biological Conservation

Dynamic multistate site occupancy models to evaluate hypotheses relevant to conservation of Golden Eagles in Denali National Park, Alaska

The recent development of multistate site occupancy models offers great opportunities to frame and solve decision problems for conservation that can be viewed in terms of site occupancy. These models have several characteristics (e.g., they account for detectability) that make them particularly well suited for addressing management and conservation problems. We applied multistate site occupancy models to evaluate hypotheses related to the conservation and management of Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) in Denali National Park, Alaska, and provided estimates of transition probabilities among three occupancy states for nesting areas (occupied with successful reproduction, occupied with unsuccessful reproduction, and unoccupied). Our estimation models included the effect of potential recreational activities (hikers) and environmental covariates such as a snowshoe hare (Lepus americanus) index on transition probabilities among the three occupancy states. Based on the most parsimonious model, support for the hypothesis of an effect of potential human disturbance on site occupancy dynamics was equivocal. There was some evidence that potential human disturbance negatively affected local colonization of territories, but there was no evidence of an effect on reproductive performance parameters. In addition, models that assume a positive relationship between the hare index and successful reproduction were well supported by the data. The statistical approach that we used is particularly useful to parameterize management models that can then be used to make optimal decisions related to the management of Golden Eagles in Denali. Although in our case we were particularly interested in managing recreational activities, we believe that such models should be useful to for a broad class of management and conservation problems.

Alaska

Opportunities and barriers for endangered species conservation using payments for ecosystem services

Endangered species laws seek to prevent extinction by outlawing actions that may cause harm or lead to extinction. In doing so, these laws are sometimes criticized for limiting management flexibility and subjecting landowners to regulatory burdens. One proposed solution to this challenge is development of payment for ecosystem service (PES) programs. These programs provide an economic incentive to conserve endangered species by compensating landowners for the costs of conservation or forgoing other profitable uses of land and resources. To assess the utility of PES as a means of overcoming opposition to endangered species regulations, we surveyed ranch operators in Arizona and New Mexico facing new regulations related to endangered jaguars ( Panthera onca ). Our findings suggest that PES cannot overcome the perceived burdens of species protection regulations and are unlikely to increase collaboration between landowners and government agencies. PES approaches are only likely to succeed where there is strong fit between institutional design and resource manager preferences. In the context of endangered species, PES proponents must pay particular attention to institutional arrangements that reduce concerns about regulatory risk. To this end, to effectively meet endangered species conservation goals, we recommend: 1) framing PES programs as voluntary conservation incentives, 2) focusing incentives on healthy ecosystems rather than a single species, and 3) using private funding to support incentives. Under these circumstances, PES may be an effective endangered species conservation tool.

Biological Conservation

Strategic monitoring to minimize misclassification errors from conservation status assessments

Classifying species into risk categories is a ubiquitous process in conservation decision-making affecting regulatory procedures, conservation actions, and guiding resource allocation at global, national, and regional scales. However, monitoring programs often do not provide data required for accurate species classification decisions. Misclassification can lead to otherwise preventable species extinctions, undue regulatory burden, poor allocation of limited conservation resources, and can undermine species conservation legislation. We developed a framework that evaluates monitoring designs based on the ability to correctly inform a species classification decision, where minimizing the risk of misclassification is the central objective. We further evaluated monitoring designs by calculating the expected value of information and explored the relationship between statistical power to detect trends and misclassification. Our measure of misclassification risk, which can be tailored to the decision context, clarified the costs of over- and under-protection. High power to detect trends often corresponded to accurate species classification decisions. However, in several scenarios power to detect trends was low but the ability to correctly inform the classification decision was high. The value of information generally increased with monitoring intensity and quantified the tradeoffs between spatial and temporal replication. Our framework allows managers to assess monitoring program performance with direct implications for conservation decision-making. Our framework affords practitioners an opportunity to evaluate the effectiveness of monitoring programs a priori focusing on improving conservation decisions. We demonstrate that prioritizing monitoring to minimize misclassification errors can improve monitoring efficiency and conservation decision-making with considerable practical applications and benefits for species conservation.

Biological Conservation

Temporary wetlands: Challenges and solutions to conserving a ‘disappearing’ ecosystem

Frequent drying of ponded water, and support of unique, highly specialized assemblages of often rare species, characterize temporary wetlands, such as vernal pools, gilgais, and prairie potholes. As small aquatic features embedded in a terrestrial landscape, temporary wetlands enhance biodiversity and provide aesthetic, biogeochemical, and hydrologic functions. Challenges to conserving temporary wetlands include the need to: (1) integrate freshwater and terrestrial biodiversity priorities; (2) conserve entire ‘pondscapes’ defined by connections to other aquatic and terrestrial systems; (3) maintain natural heterogeneity in environmental gradients across and within wetlands, especially gradients in hydroperiod; (4) address economic impact on landowners and developers; (5) act without complete inventories of these wetlands; and (6) work within limited or non-existent regulatory protections. Because temporary wetlands function as integral landscape components, not singly as isolated entities, their cumulative loss is ecologically detrimental yet not currently part of the conservation calculus. We highlight approaches that use strategies for conserving temporary wetlands in increasingly human-dominated landscapes that integrate top-down management and bottom-up collaborative approaches. Diverse conservation activities (including education, inventory, protection, sustainable management, and restoration) that reduce landowner and manager costs while achieving desired ecological objectives will have the greatest probability of success in meeting conservation goals.

Biological Conservation

Removal of cattle grazing correlates with increases in vegetation productivity and in abundance of imperiled breeding birds

Livestock grazing is the most prevalent land use practice in the western United States and a widespread cause of degradation of riparian vegetation. Riparian areas provide high-quality habitat for many species of declining migratory breeding birds. We analyzed changes in vegetation and bird abundance at a wildlife refuge in southeastern Oregon over 24 years, following cessation of 120 years of livestock grazing. We quantified long-term changes in overall avian abundance and species richness and, specifically, in the abundances of 20 focal species. We then compared the local responses of the focal species to population-scale trends of the same species at three different large spatial scales. Overall avian abundance increased 23% during the 12 years after removal and remained consistent from then through year 24. Three times as many species colonized the survey sites as dropped out. Of the focal species, most riparian woodland-tree or shrub dependent, sagebrush obligate, and grassland or meadow taxa increased in abundance or remained stable locally. As these species were generally of conservation concern, the population increases contradicted regionally declining or stable trends. In contrast, most riparian woodland-cavity nester species decreased in abundance locally, reflecting disruption of aspen stand dynamics by decades of grazing. Avian nest parasites and competitors of native species declined in abundance locally, matching regional trends. Restoring riparian ecosystems by removing livestock appeared to be beneficial to the conservation of many of these declining populations of migratory birds.

Oregon

Biome-scale spatial patterns of avian abundance reveal proactive conservation opportunities in North American grasslands

North American grassland birds have experienced steeper population declines than any other avian guild, yet conservation efforts remain largely reactive and fragmented. We used nearly four decades of North American Breeding Bird Survey data to identify biome-scale spatial patterns (clustering) of grassland bird abundance for the Great Plains. Our results reveal an ecological core in the north-central Plains where community-level abundance is either increasing by >100% or remains high and stable, providing a strategic roadmap for a “Defend the Core” conservation approach. This approach flips the script from reactive triage centered on isolated population fragments to a proactive strategy of maintaining large-scale ecosystem integrity. Conversely, we found that population losses are more spatially clustered than wins, reflecting the relentless, one-way movement of woody encroachment and agricultural conversion. This asymmetry supports prioritizing intact landscapes, as current restoration rates are often outpaced by the scale of habitat loss. Notably, we found that community-level spatial clustering is a more robust indicator of biome condition than trends of individual flagship species, suggesting that managing for ecosystem integrity provides a more effective multi-species umbrella. Given our results, there is an opportunity for operationalizing a Great Plains Conservation Design that is ecosystem-centric and rooted in the sustainability of the private-land cattle production that maintains these open spaces. By leveraging avian abundance as a biological sensor, managers and producers can deploy a shared vision that matches the spatial scale of the threats, moving from reactive triage to proactive defense of core working grasslands in North America.

Great Plains biome

Distribution and habitat use by manatees (Trichechus manatus manatus) in Belize and Chetumal Bay, Mexico

The nearshore coastal areas of Belize and of Chetumal Bay, Mexico, support one of the largest populations of manatees ( Trichechus manatus manatus ) in the Caribbean. In order to further document the distribution, relative abundance, habitat associations, and status of this population, we conducted three aerial surveys. The flights were done in January 1994, May 1994, and January 1995. Total manatee counts for each survey were 266, 207, and 171, respectively. Calves represented 7.4% of the grand total. Solitary manatees represented 62.8% of the total count. Manatees were numerous around the cays east of Belize City, in Placentia and Indian Hill lagoons, and in Chetumal Bay. Most manatees were observed in lagoons and rivers. Growing tourist activities should be assessed to avoid undesirable effects on manatees. Poaching and marketing of manatee products continues to jeopardize the animals in some areas. Current research and management activities are part of a cooperative international program to conserve the manatee in the Caribbean region.

Chetumal Bay

Distribution and conservation status of prairie dogs Cynomys mexicanus and Cynomys ludovicianus in Mexico

The two living species of black-tailed prairie dogs Cynomys mexicanus and C. ludovicianus are found in Mexico. Cynomys mexicanus , a Mexican endemic, is restricted to a 600-km2 region in northwestern Mexico. It is found in six large arid grassland valleys associated with gypsum soils and surrounded by arid scrub. Due to the small geographic range and destruction of its habitat this species is considered endangered. Cynomys ludovicianus is found in northwestern Mexico. Its present distribution comprises a very large complex covering approximately 55 000 ha, eight major dogtowns, and more than one million prairie dogs. Indeed, this population represents the largest continuous prairie dog complex left in North America. However, its present conservation status is considered as threatened, mainly because of the rapid deterioration of its habitat.

Biological Conservation

Modeling the fish community population dynamics and forecasting the eradication success of an exotic fish from an alpine stream

Management actions aimed at eradicating exotic fish species from riverine ecosystems can be better informed by forecasting abilities of mechanistic models. We illustrate this point with an example of the Logan River, Utah, originally populated with endemic cutthroat trout ( Oncorhynchus clarkii utah ), which compete with exotic brown trout ( Salmo trutta ). The coexistence equilibrium was disrupted by a large scale, experimental removal of the exotic species in 2009–2011 (on average, 8.2% of the stock each year), followed by an increase in the density of the native species. We built a spatially-explicit, reaction-diffusion model encompassing four key processes: population growth in heterogeneous habitat, competition, dispersal, and a management action. We calibrated the model with detailed long-term monitoring data (2001–2016) collected along the 35.4-km long river main channel. Our model, although simple, did a remarkable job reproducing the system steady state prior to the management action. Insights gained from the model independent predictions are consistent with available knowledge and indicate that the exotic species is more competitive; however, the native species still occupies more favorable habitat upstream. Dynamic runs of the model also recreated the observed increase of the native species following the management action. The model can simulate two possible distinct long-term outcomes: recovery or eradication of the exotic species. The processing of available knowledge using Bayesian methods allowed us to conclude that the chance for eradication of the invader was low at the beginning of the experimental removal (0.7% in 2009) and increased (20.5% in 2016) by using more recent monitoring data. We show that accessible mathematical and numerical tools can provide highly informative insights for managers (e.g., outcome of their conservation actions), identify knowledge gaps, and provide testable theory for researchers.

Utah