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USGS2026

The digital archivist: Automating legacy macroseismic data processing using large language models

Macroseismic data are a key resource to investigate shaking and damage from preinstrumental and early instrumental eras. However, data are often stored as inconsistently formatted reports describing observed shaking and damage, making manually parsing and interpreting accounts labor‐intensive. We introduce a novel workflow using Google’s Gemini 2.5 Pro large language model (LLM) to automate the extraction and structuring of macroseismic observations from summary reports. We apply this workflow to the 22 March 1957 M 5.3 Daly City, California, earthquake as a case study. We used Gemini to extract addresses, originally assigned modified Mercalli intensity values, and descriptions from each report. To address coordinate precision limits, addresses were geocoded via Google’s Geocoding application programming interface. This workflow yielded over 2300 geocoded intensity reports for the Daly City earthquake. We use the geocoded accounts, with the original report intensity assignments, to develop a shaking intensity map that in some respects rivals modern Did You Feel It? Maps. We also extract and present data for the 9 February 1971 M L 6.7 Sylmar, California, earthquake. Our results demonstrate the potential of LLMs for reliably extracting and analyzing large, unstructured macroseismic datasets. LLMs offer a scalable solution for rapidly digitizing macroseismic archives, enabling their broader use to constrain ground‐motion models in modern seismic hazard analysis and to improve our understanding of site effects in urban areas. The concepts explored here may also be applied to the handling of other legacy seismological and earth science data.

Seismological Research Letters↗

USGS2023

U.S. Geological Survey Rocky Mountain Region 2022 science exchange, showcasing interdisciplinary and state-of-the-art USGS science

Introduction The Rocky Mountains and the Colorado River Basin in the Western United States represent complex, interconnected systems that sustain a number of species, including tens of millions of humans. These systems face several challenges, including worsening drought, altered wildfire regimes, climate change, and the spread of invasive species. These factors can exacerbate one another, further contributing to habitat loss and affecting species of conservation concern. Characterizing and managing these challenges require interdisciplinary communities of scientists to develop information and decision-support tools that can inform holistic land and water management solutions. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Rocky Mountain Region 2022 Science Exchange focused on the use of interdisciplinary and state-of-the-art science being conducted by USGS scientists in the region to address these complex problems. The USGS Rocky Mountain Regional Office organized its first Science Exchange in 2017 to share scientific information between leaders and early career scientists throughout the region. Science Exchanges held in 2018 and 2020 focused on drought science relevant to the region and the Earth Monitoring, Analyses, and Prediction (EarthMAP) concept, which is designed to facilitate interdisciplinary, timely, and actionable science related to drought in the Colorado River Basin and other areas. Based on the emerging need for more holistic approaches to address increasingly complex natural resource issues that affect society, the Region hosted a virtual fourth Science Exchange for three days in April 2022. This event focused on barriers and bridges to interdisciplinary science and highlighted studies from the Region to inspire collaboration across disciplines. Presentations described recent and ongoing research that applied collaborative and state-of-the-art methods to address problems in the fields of geology, hydrology, ecology, and natural hazards. Science collaboration and outreach to all levels of stakeholders are vital elements needed for providing timely and actionable data, interpretations, analytical tools, and products. These presentations led to active online chats and panel discussions and showcased interdisciplinary science and advanced methods that may inform and lead to more effective, holistic management decisions as the Western United States adapts to ongoing and future changes.

Fact Sheet↗

USGS2013

Integrated environmental modeling: a vision and roadmap for the future

Integrated environmental modeling (IEM) is inspired by modern environmental problems, decisions, and policies and enabled by transdisciplinary science and computer capabilities that allow the environment to be considered in a holistic way. The problems are characterized by the extent of the environmental system involved, dynamic and interdependent nature of stressors and their impacts, diversity of stakeholders, and integration of social, economic, and environmental considerations. IEM provides a science-based structure to develop and organize relevant knowledge and information and apply it to explain, explore, and predict the behavior of environmental systems in response to human and natural sources of stress. During the past several years a number of workshops were held that brought IEM practitioners together to share experiences and discuss future needs and directions. In this paper we organize and present the results of these discussions. IEM is presented as a landscape containing four interdependent elements: applications, science, technology, and community. The elements are described from the perspective of their role in the landscape, current practices, and challenges that must be addressed. Workshop participants envision a global scale IEM community that leverages modern technologies to streamline the movement of science-based knowledge from its sources in research, through its organization into databases and models, to its integration and application for problem solving purposes. Achieving this vision will require that the global community of IEM stakeholders transcend social, and organizational boundaries and pursue greater levels of collaboration. Among the highest priorities for community action are the development of standards for publishing IEM data and models in forms suitable for automated discovery, access, and integration; education of the next generation of environmental stakeholders, with a focus on transdisciplinary research, development, and decision making; and providing a web-based platform for community interactions (e.g., continuous virtual workshops).

Environmental Modelling and Software↗

USGS2019

Back from the brink: Sustainable management of the Lake Erie walleye fishery

This chapter describes management actions implemented after a large-scale population decline of the Walleye Sander vitreus population in Lake Erie, one of the Laurentian Great Lakes in North America. Intensive fishery exploitation during the 1950s combined with declining water quality conditions collapsed the Walleye stock during the early 1960s. The fishery persisted at low levels until 1970 when the fishery was closed (1970–1972) due to elevated mercury concentrations in Walleye tissue. Lake Erie fishery managers at the time recognized the need for a coordinated, multi-agency approach to protect this ecologically, economically, and socially important resource. The harvest ban was lifted in 1973 when mercury levels dropped below advisory levels. In 1976, an interagency management framework was established, which relied on a coordinated, science-based management philosophy consisting of estimating safe harvest levels, performing applied research, and conducting annual population assessments. The population rebounded during the 1980s in response to improving environmental conditions, regulated harvest, and a series of strong recruitment events. Declines in harvest and population size were again observed during the late 1990s and mid-2000s, likely due to variation in natural processes controlling recruitment, and fishery managers enacted harvest practices during this period to promote long-term sustainability. Today, Lake Erie Walleyes support one of the largest self-sustaining freshwater fisheries in North America. Throughout the years, Lake Erie managers have iteratively adopted changes to their population assessment model and altered harvest policies to avoid future fishery and population collapses. More than 40 years later, Lake Erie continues to support commercial and recreational fisheries lake wide. Lessons learned from the stock recovery and subsequent coordinated management for fishery sustainability include the importance of conducting routine population assessments, using science-based research to address key uncertainties, adopting modern stock assessment approaches, incorporating stakeholder input into the quota setting process, and addressing environmental concerns collaboratively at the lake level.

Book chapter↗

USGS2002

Geochemistry of rock units at the potential repository level, Yucca Mountain, Nevada

The compositional variability of the phenocryst-poor member of the 12.8 Ma Topopah Spring Tuff at the potential repository level was assessed by duplicate analysis of 20 core samples from the cross drift at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. Previous analyses of outcrop and core samples of the Topopah Spring Tuff showed that the phenocryst-poor rhyolite, which includes both lithophysal and nonlithophysal zones, is relatively uniform in composition. Analyses of rock samples from the cross drift, the first from the actual potential repository block, also indicate the chemical homogeneity of this unit excluding localized deposits of vapor-phase minerals and low-temperature calcite and opal in fractures, cavities, and faults. The possible influence of vapor-phase minerals and calcite and opal coatings on rock composition at a scale sufficiently large to incorporate these heterogeneously distributed deposits was evaluated and is considered to be relatively minor. Therefore, the composition of the phenocryst-poor member of the Topopah Spring Tuff is considered to be adequately represented by the analyses of samples from the cross drift. The mean composition as represented by the 10 most abundant oxides in wt. % or g/100 g is: SiO2, 76.29; Al2O3, 12.55; FeO, 0.14; Fe2O3, 0.97; MgO, 0.13; CaO, 0.50; Na2O, 3.52; K2O, 4.83; TiO2, 0.11; and MnO, 0.07. ?? 2002 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd.

Applied Geochemistry↗

USGS2003

An empirical approach to inversion of an unconventional helicopter electromagnetic dataset

A helicopter electromagnetic (HEM) survey acquired at the U.S. Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL) used a modification of a traditional mining airborne method flown at low levels for detailed characterization of shallow waste sites. The low sensor height, used to increase resolution, invalidates standard assumptions used in processing HEM data. Although the survey design strategy was sound, traditional interpretation techniques, routinely used in industry, proved ineffective. Processed data and apparent resistivity maps were severely distorted, and hence unusable, due to low flight height effects, high magnetic permeability of the basalt host, and the conductive, three-dimensional nature of the waste site targets.To accommodate these interpretation challenges, we modified a one-dimensional inversion routine to include a linear term in the objective function that allows for the magnetic and three-dimensional electromagnetic responses in the in-phase data. Although somewhat ad hoc, the use of this term in the inverse routine, referred to as the shift factor, was successful in defining the waste sites and reducing noise due to the low flight height and magnetic characteristics of the host rock. Many inversion scenarios were applied to the data and careful analysis was necessary to determine the parameters appropriate for interpretation, hence the approach was empirical. Data from three areas were processed with this scheme to highlight different interpretational aspects of the method. Wastes sites were delineated with the shift terms in two of the areas, allowing for separation of the anthropomorphic targets from the natural one-dimensional host. In the third area, the estimated resistivity and the shift factor were used for geological mapping. The high magnetic content of the native soil enabled the mapping of disturbed soil with the shift term. Published by Elsevier Science B.V.

Journal of Applied Geophysics↗

USGS2018

Blue carbon as a tool to support coastal management and restoration: Bringing wetlands to market case study

A collaborative research approach involving substantial end user and stakeholder engagement was applied to great effect to guide broad, integrated investigation of the science, policy, and management of blue carbon and carbon markets as drivers for coastal wetland management and restoration. Expanding awareness about blue carbon concepts among local, state, and federal agencies and the public was found to be effective at stimulating interest in taking climate-change mitigation action through wetland protection and restoration, as well as increasing understanding about the overall value of coastal wetlands and the services they provide. Interest in blue carbon is high regardless of the potential for financial benefits through a carbon market. For end users such as the Massachusetts Division of Ecological Restoration and National Park Service Cape Cod National Seashore and many others, the ability to highlight the climate benefits of ecological restoration to stakeholders may have greater value than financial benefits from sale of carbon market credits.

Book chapter↗

USGS2018

Conceptual model to assess water use associated with the life cycle of unconventional oil and gas development

As the demand for energy increases in the United States, so does the demand for water used to produce many forms of that energy. Technological advances, limited access to conventional oil and gas accumulations, and the rise of oil and gas prices resulted in increased development of unconventional oil and gas (UOG) accumulations. Unconventional oil and gas is developed using a method that combines directional drilling and hydraulic fracturing techniques, allowing for greater oil and gas production from previously unrecoverable reservoirs. Quantification of the water resources required for UOG development and production is difficult because of disparate data sources, variable reporting requirements across boundaries (local, State, and national), and incomplete or proprietary datasets. A topical study was started in 2015 under the U.S. Geological Survey’s Water Availability and Use Science Program, as part of the directive in the Secure Water Act for the U.S. Geological Survey to conduct a National Water Census, to better understand the relation between production of UOG resources for energy and the amount of water needed to produce and sustain this type of energy development in the United States. The Water Availability and Use Science Program goal for this topical study is to develop and apply a statistical model to better estimate the water use associated with UOG development, regardless of the location and target geologic formation. As a first step, a conceptual model has been developed to characterize the life cycle of water use in areas of UOG development. Categories of water use and the way water-use data are collected might change over time; therefore, a generic approach was used in developing the conceptual model to allow for greater flexibility in adapting to future changes or newly available data. UOG development can be summarized into four stages: predrilling construction, drilling, hydraulic fracturing, and ongoing production. The water used in UOG production can be categorized further as direct, indirect, or ancillary water use. Direct water use is defined as the water used for drilling and hydraulic fracturing a well and for maintaining the well during ongoing production. Indirect water use is defined as the water used at or near a well pad. The water used for dust abatement also is considered an indirect use but may be applied away from the well pad. Ancillary water use is defined as the additional local or regional water use resulting from a change (for example, population) directly related to UOG development throughout the life cycle that is not used directly in the well or indirectly for any other purpose at the well pad. The conceptual model presented in this report consists of five elements: (1) input data, (2) processes, (3) decisions, (4) output data, and (5) outcomes. The input data requirements for estimating water use associated with UOG development are somewhat onerous, and obtaining suitable datasets can be challenging because local, State, and Federal agencies do not collect data similarly. The quality of a water-use assessment that uses the conceptual model presented in this report is dependent on the quality and quantity of data that are available for a UOG play. The conceptual model can be used for an assessment with sparse data; however, having sparse data likely will result in greater uncertainty in the water-use estimates. The conceptual model presented in this report is designed to be robust to characterize and simulate the data processing to estimate water use associated with UOG development. Although the results of an analysis that includes missing data have greater uncertainty, the analysis still can be insightful because it can establish a baseline estimate of UOG water use that may be refined further as more data become available. Analysis of models that include missing data also could aid in identifying the data most needed for future water-use estimates. Characterizing individual model limitations is important because the conceptual model can be used in future water-use studies to facilitate data compiling, data processing, estimating, and assessing UOG activities regardless of location.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2015

Principles of effective USA federal fire management plans

Federal fire management plans are essential implementation guides for the management of wildland fire on federal lands. Recent changes in federal fire policy implementation guidance and fire science information suggest the need for substantial changes in federal fire management plans of the United States. Federal land management agencies are also undergoing land management planning efforts that will initiate revision of fire management plans across the country. Using the southern Sierra Nevada as a case study, we briefly describe the underlying framework of fire management plans, assess their consistency with guiding principles based on current science information and federal policy guidance, and provide recommendations for the development of future fire management plans. Based on our review, we recommend that future fire management plans be: (1) consistent and compatible, (2) collaborative, (3) clear and comprehensive, (4) spatially and temporally scalable, (5) informed by the best available science, and (6) flexible and adaptive. In addition, we identify and describe several strategic guides or “tools” that can enhance these core principles and benefit future fire management plans in the following areas: planning and prioritization, science integration, climate change adaptation, partnerships, monitoring, education and communication, and applied fire management. These principles and tools are essential to successfully realize fire management goals and objectives in a rapidly changing world.

California↗

USGS2016

Users and uses of Landsat 8 satellite imagery—2014 survey results

Executive Summary In 2013, Landsat 8 began adding high quality, global, moderate-resolution imagery to the more than 40-year archive of Landsat imagery. To assess the potential effects of the availability of Landsat 8 imagery on users and their work, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Land Remote Sensing Program (LRS) initiated a survey of Landsat users. The objectives of the survey were to 1. Characterize various Landsat user groups, such as United States (U.S.) and international users and Landsat 8 and non-Landsat 8 users; 2. Identify any differences among user groups in uses and preferences; 3. Measure the importance of and satisfaction with Landsat 8 attributes; 4. Assess the importance to users of the frequency of usable imagery; and 5. Determine any challenges in using Landsat 8. The online survey was sent to 51,617 Landsat users registered with USGS in May 2014. Almost 13,000 people responded to the survey for a response rate of 25 percent (n = 12,966). Current Landsat users (users who had used Landsat in their work in the year prior to the survey) composed 89 percent of the sample (n = 11,549) and past Landsat users composed 11 percent (n = 1,417). The results reported here apply to current Landsat users registered with the USGS Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center. Users from 161 countries responded to the survey. Of those, 19 percent were citizens or permanent residents of the United States and 81 percent resided in other countries. More than 70 percent of current users had used Landsat 8 in the year prior to the survey. The majority of Landsat 8 users (65 percent) were established users who used Landsat imagery regularly both before and after Landsat 8 imagery became available. The average current Landsat user was male, 36 years old, and highly educated, with 9 years of experience using satellite imagery or geographic information system (GIS) software. Landsat 8 users had, on average, two more years of experience than non-Landsat 8 users. Users were employed predominantly by academic institutions (65 percent), followed by private businesses (13 percent), Federal governments (10 percent), State and local governments (6 percent), and nonprofit organizations (6 percent). Of the Landsat imagery obtained in the past year by current users, on average 31 percent came from a Landsat 8 sensor. An equivalent amount came from the Landsat 7 ETM+ sensor (33 percent); slightly less came from Landsats 4 and 5 TM sensors (27 percent). Much less came from Landsats 1 through 5 MSS sensors (5 percent). Overall, more than a third of users’ work used Landsat imagery (38 percent). Of this work, on average, 37 percent of the work was operational. Landsat 8 users considered a greater proportion of their work operational than non-Landsat 8 users (39 percent compared with 29 percent). Environmental sciences and management were the most commonly selected primary applications (selected by 42 percent of users). Land use/land cover (23 percent) was the second most commonly selected primary application, followed by education (12 percent), agriculture (9 percent), and planning and development (6 percent). Landsat 8 users were asked to rank the importance of certain attributes in determining whether to use Landsat 8 imagery in their work. The archive was ranked most important, followed by cost, spatial resolution, extent of coverage, data quality, and frequency of revisit. Users were asked how satisfied they were with these same attributes as they currently apply to Landsat 8 imagery. On average, users were most satisfied with lack of cost, extent of coverage, data quality, and the archive, but they were satisfied with all attributes. Users were asked how often they needed Landsat imagery to meet various requirements for their primary application. The survey question specifically asked how often users needed usable imagery, which differs from how often they would like the Landsat satellites to acquire an image. Users were asked to identify their needed frequency of usable imagery for the following levels: 1. Threshold level—the minimum frequency of usable imagery needed to be of any value to their primary application. 2. Breakthrough level—the frequency of usable imagery that would result in a significant improvement for their primary application of the imagery. 3. Target level—the frequency of usable imagery that would only provide a limited additional increase in the expected performance for their primary application. To meet the threshold level, three-quarters of users needed usable imagery every 17 days or less frequently. At the breakthrough level, two-thirds of users (64 percent) needed a usable image every 5–16 days. The current constellation of two satellites (Landsat 7 and 8) is capable of meeting the threshold and breakthrough needs of most users at least some of the time, but a single satellite would be highly unlikely to do so. Two-fifths of users (40 percent) felt that usable imagery provided every 4 days or more frequently would meet their target level which the current Landsat constellation cannot provide. Landsat 8 users were significantly more likely than non-Landsat 8 users to need usable imagery more frequently to meet their target levels. Additionally, U.S. Landsat 8 users were significantly more likely than other Landsat users to need usable imagery more frequently in order meet both their breakthrough and target levels. To explore the effect of the availability of Landsat 8 imagery on Landsat imagery use in general, established users (those who had consistently used Landsat imagery both before and after Landsat 8 imagery became available) using Landsat 8 imagery were asked about changes in the amount of Landsat imagery they used. The majority of established users using Landsat 8 imagery (60 percent) reported an average increase of 51 percent in the number of scenes obtained after Landsat 8 imagery became available. Landsat 8 users were asked if they had encountered challenges in using Landsat 8 whereas non-Landsat 8 users were asked if such challenges had played a role in why they were not using Landsat 8 imagery. Although many users did not encounter challenges when using or trying to use Landsat 8 data, slightly less than 30 percent did encounter issues with processing the data to a usable point. The most common issue reported was not being able to create or have access to a surface reflectance corrected product. Other challenges were related to the file sizes of images being too large to download, store, or analyze. There were no statistically significant differences between Landsat 8 and non-Landsat 8 users in terms of challenges encountered when using or trying to use the imagery, which indicates that users were not unduly discouraged by the challenges they may have encountered. When asked about potential consequences of not using Landsat 8, more than half of the non-Landsat 8 users did not report detrimental effects on their work from not using the imagery. Of those who did report detrimental effects, decreased quality of work, decreased scope of work, and increased time spent on work were the most common.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2010

An overview of sensor calibration inter-comparison and applications

Long-term climate data records (CDR) are often constructed using observations made by multiple Earth observing sensors over a broad range of spectra and a large scale in both time and space. These sensors can be of the same or different types operated on the same or different platforms. They can be developed and built with different technologies and are likely operated over different time spans. It has been known that the uncertainty of climate models and data records depends not only on the calibration quality (accuracy and stability) of individual sensors, but also on their calibration consistency across instruments and platforms. Therefore, sensor calibration inter-comparison and validation have become increasingly demanding and will continue to play an important role for a better understanding of the science product quality. This paper provides an overview of different methodologies, which have been successfully applied for sensor calibration inter-comparison. Specific examples using different sensors, including MODIS, AVHRR, and ETM+, are presented to illustrate the implementation of these methodologies.

Frontiers of Earth Science in China↗

USGS2024

Amphibian and reptile conservation in the United States of America

Wildlife stewardship is of utmost importance in the United States, where management for sustainable natural resources is extended to native species including amphibians and reptiles. The U.S. wildlife conservation framework is a nested system of authorities regulating species and habitats, science-based management and policy decisions, and adaptive management as new knowledge is applied to improve outcomes of population- and habitat-management actions. Yet the approach has evolved through time, from single-species management of game species to the conservation of entire ecosystems and the biodiversity they support. Today, the mismatch of conservation ideals with conservation capacity puts nongame species like amphibians and reptiles in the crosshairs for losses due to insufficient resources to address growing numbers of threats. Despite these challenges, optimism prevails, as the management and conservation of U.S. herpetofauna is an increasing priority of the public, with considerable investment into habitat restoration, species-specific threat mitigation, research, public outreach, and education. Herein, we outline key elements of U.S. herpetological conservation efficacy: (1) a web of legal authorities governing the management of U.S. herpetofauna and their habitats; (2) a network of people and organizations that work toward filling priority knowledge gaps by conducting scientific research and that are actively engaged in the science-management interface for species-to-ecosystem level conservation decision-making, and (3) a learning framework of adaptive management within the legal landscape (“lawscape”) and for improving effectiveness of conservation actions. Lastly, the human dimension of species conservation in the U.S. is emerging, where bottom-up local efforts are having success in addition to state- and regional-scale approaches. We propose U.S. herpetological conservation priorities under three themes: threats, research, and human dimensions (people). Together these multifaceted efforts are contributing to advances in the maintenance of U.S. amphibian and reptile diversity. The success of these efforts is notable and could be viewed as a model system, where lessons learned may apply elsewhere.

Book chapter↗

USGS2000

Transient calcite fracture fillings in a welded tuff, Snowshoe Mountain, Colorado

The core from two boreholes (13.1 and 19.2 m depth) drilled 500 m apart in the fractured, welded tuff near the summit of the Snowshoe Mountain, Colorado (47??30'N, 106??55'W) had unique petrographic and hydrodynamic properties. Borehole SM-4 had highly variable annual water levels, in contrast to SM-1a, whose water level remained near the land surface. Core samples from both boreholes (n = 10 and 11) were examined petrographically in thin sections impregnated with epoxy containing rhodamine to mark the pore system features, and were analyzed for matrix porosity and permeability. Core from the borehole sampling the vadose zone was characterized by open fractures with enhanced porosity around phenocrysts due to chemical weathering. Fractures within the borehole sampling the phreatic zone were mineralized with calcite and had porosity characteristics similar to Unweathered and unfractured rock. At the top of the phreatic zone petrography indicates that calcite is dissolving, thereby changing the hydrogeochemical character of the rock (i.e. permeability, porosity, reactive surface area, and mineralogy). Radiocarbon ages and C and O stable isotopes indicate that calcite mineralization occurred about 30 to 40 ka ago and that there was more than one mineralization event. Results of this study also provide some relationships between primary porosity development from 3 types of fracture in a welded tuff. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd.

Applied Geochemistry↗

USGS2008

Fish passage research: S.O. Conte Anadromous Fish Research Laboratory

The Leetown Science Center’s S.O. Conte Anadromous Fish Research Laboratory conducts basic and applied scientific studies of fish passage and migration to define underlying principles and relationships of fish behavior and hydraulics, and to develop integrated, predictive research that can be applied to a wide range of fish passage problems.

Fact Sheet↗

USGS2008

Research to More Effectively Manage Critical Ground-Water Basins

As the regional management agency for two of the most heavily used ground-water basins in California, the Water Replenishment District of Southern California (WRD) plays a vital role in sheparding the water resources of southern Los Angeles County. WRD is using the results of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) studies to help more effectively manage the Central and West Coast basins in the most efficient, cost-effective way. In partnership with WRD, the USGS is using the latest research tools to study the geohydrology and geochemistry of the two basins. USGS scientists are: *Drilling and collecting detailed data from over 40 multiple-well monitoring sites, *Conducting regional geohydrologic and geochemical analyses, *Developing and applying a computer simulation model of regional ground-water flow. USGS science is providing a more detailed understanding of ground-water flow and quality. This research has enabled WRD to more effectively manage the basins. It has helped the District improve the efficiency of its spreading ponds and barrier injection wells, which replenish the aquifers and control seawater intrusion into the ground-water system.

Fact Sheet↗

USGS2016

Application of decision science to resilience management in Jamaica Bay

This book highlights the growing interest in management interventions designed to enhance the resilience of the Jamaica Bay socio-ecological system. Effective management, whether the focus is on managing biological processes or human behavior or (most likely) both, requires decision makers to anticipate how the managed system will respond to interventions (i.e., via predictions or projections). In systems characterized by many interacting components and high uncertainty, making probabilistic predictions is often difficult and requires careful thinking not only about system dynamics, but also about how management objectives are specified and the analytic method used to select the preferred action(s). Developing a clear statement of the problem(s) and articulation of management objectives is often best achieved by including input from managers, scientists and other stakeholders affected by the decision through a process of joint problem framing (Marcot and others 2012; Keeney and others 1990). Using a deliberate, coherent and transparent framework for deciding among management alternatives to best meet these objectives then ensures a greater likelihood for successful intervention. Decision science provides the theoretical and practical basis for developing this framework and applying decision analysis methods for making complex decisions under uncertainty and risk.

Book chapter↗

USGS2016

Uncertainty in biological monitoring: a framework for data collection and analysis to account for multiple sources of sampling bias

Biological monitoring programmes are increasingly relying upon large volumes of citizen-science data to improve the scope and spatial coverage of information, challenging the scientific community to develop design and model-based approaches to improve inference. Recent statistical models in ecology have been developed to accommodate false-negative errors, although current work points to false-positive errors as equally important sources of bias. This is of particular concern for the success of any monitoring programme given that rates as small as 3% could lead to the overestimation of the occurrence of rare events by as much as 50%, and even small false-positive rates can severely bias estimates of occurrence dynamics. We present an integrated, computationally efficient Bayesian hierarchical model to correct for false-positive and false-negative errors in detection/non-detection data. Our model combines independent, auxiliary data sources with field observations to improve the estimation of false-positive rates, when a subset of field observations cannot be validated a posteriori or assumed as perfect. We evaluated the performance of the model across a range of occurrence rates, false-positive and false-negative errors, and quantity of auxiliary data. The model performed well under all simulated scenarios, and we were able to identify critical auxiliary data characteristics which resulted in improved inference. We applied our false-positive model to a large-scale, citizen-science monitoring programme for anurans in the north-eastern United States, using auxiliary data from an experiment designed to estimate false-positive error rates. Not correcting for false-positive rates resulted in biased estimates of occupancy in 4 of the 10 anuran species we analysed, leading to an overestimation of the average number of occupied survey routes by as much as 70%. The framework we present for data collection and analysis is able to efficiently provide reliable inference for occurrence patterns using data from a citizen-science monitoring programme. However, our approach is applicable to data generated by any type of research and monitoring programme, independent of skill level or scale, when effort is placed on obtaining auxiliary information on false-positive rates.

Methods in Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2022

The researcher's lament: Why do they ignore my science?

The researcher's lament is shared by many environmental and conservation scientists who complain about the little support they receive for their research proposals during the review and selection process. Understandably, any hopes of having their anticipated scientific findings applied toward the formulation of environmental management decisions or natural resource policy action are shattered. They attribute this lack of endorsement to shortcomings and limitations among decision makers and proposal selection officials when, in many cases, the rejection of project proposals is often a function of a handful of self-inflicted failures by applied scientists who anchor themselves stubbornly to doomed approaches. Familiar deficiencies in their research proposals perpetuate the disconnect between the enterprise of science and real-world resource management challenges. Researchers themselves can affect conditions that turn up the appetite for their scientific endeavors as a more meaningful component of the decision-making process, namely, to stage and deliver science that is more readily "actionable." Perhaps it is time for them to consider a course correction to improve the viability of their actionable science proposals. A few basic steps may help rejigger the science planning process in this direction and, consequently, help avoid the researcher's lament. The likelihood of gaining support during the proposal review and award adjudication process, and securing practical application of scientific products, increases when the products are (1) the result of active engagement of researchers with decision makers; (2) better connected to social and political priorities; (3) clearly designed to inform specific management decisions; and (4) tailored to fit the needs of targeted end users. These considerations and activities exist beyond the comfort zone of many environmental or conservation scientists. Yet, those who adopt them will spend less time lamenting rejection and become more influential in the production of actionable knowledge.

Ecosphere↗